Lots at stake in first GOP debate in nearly a month

Twenty-seven days. That’s how long it has been between the 19th and 20th Republican presidential debates.

But that ends Wednesday, when former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas face off at a debate hosted by CNN and the Republican Party of Arizona at the Mesa Arts Center.

A lot has changed in the battle for the GOP nomination since the last debate, a CNN-Republican Party of Florida showdown in Jacksonville on January 26. Romney went on to win big in Florida and Nevada, while Gingrich, who had just scored an impressive victory in South Carolina, faded fast.

Then Santorum surged in state and national polling after sweeping the February 7th contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.

The debate Wednesday is the last time the candidates will share a stage before primaries in Arizona and Michigan on Tuesday, before Washington state holds a contest on March 3, and before 10 more states hold primaries or caucuses on March 6.

You can watch the debate live on TV on CNN or view it online at CNN.com/Live and the CNN mobile app. 

And as always, have at it in the comments!

NBC News/Marist Michigan 2012 Senate Poll

• Debbie Stabenow (D) 53%
• Pete Hoekstra (R) 32%
• Undecided 15%

Survey of 3,149 registered voters was conducted February 19-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 1.8 percentage points.

Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tommy Thompson (R) 48%
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 42%

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 44%
• Mark Neumann (R) 40%

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 45%
• Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 37%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tommy Thompson 44% / 34% {+10%}
• Mark Neumann 22% / 22% {0%}
• Tammy Baldwin 21% / 27% {-6%}
• Jeff Fitzgerald 17% / 23% {-6%}

Survey of 716 registered voters was conducted February 16-19, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.  Party ID: 34% Democrat; 26% Republican; 35% Independent.  Political views: 38% Moderate; 30% Conservative; 14% Liberal; 8% Very conservative; 4% Very liberal.

Rasmussen Virginia 2012 Senate Poll

• Tim Kaine 46% (46%)
• George Allen 46% (45%)
• Some other candidate 3% (3%)
• Undecided 5% (7%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted February 21, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 28, 2011 are in parentheses. 

Inside the numbers:

Allen and Kaine both earn nearly 90% support from voters in their own parties. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties prefer the Republican by a 45% to 38% margin.

Allen is favored among male voters in the state 52% to 43%, but he trails Kaine among females 48% to 41%. Younger voters support the Democrat, while their elders favor the Republican in the race.

Twenty-two percent (22%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Kaine, who stepped down as chairman of the Democratic National Committee earlier this year. Twenty-six percent (26%) view him Very Unfavorably.

Allen earns a Very Favorable rating from 21% of voters in Virginia and Very Unfavorable reviews from 17%.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

NBC News/Marist Michigan 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 51%
• Mitt Romney 33%

Overall, do you think the bailout of the auto industry was a good idea or a bad idea?

• Good idea 63%
• Bad idea 28%

Do you think President Obama deserves a great deal of credit, a good amount, not very much, or no credit at all for the recovery of the auto industry?

• A great deal of credit 24%
• A good amount 34%
• Not very much 22%
• No credit at all 15%

Survey of 3,149 registered voters was conducted February 19-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 1.8 percentage points.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Rasmussen Oklahoma 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 43%
• Newt Gingrich 22%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Some other candidate 2%
• Undecided 7%

If the 2012 Republican primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. For whom would you vote?

• Rick Santorum 65%
• Mitt Romney 27%

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 45%
• Could change mind 47%

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Rick Santorum 35%
• Mitt Romney 30%
• Newt Gingrich 21%

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 48%
• Rick Santorum 34%

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted February 21, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Santorum is well ahead of the GOP pack among very conservative primary voters in Oklahoma and leads both Romney and Gingrich by double digits among somewhat conservative voters.

Santorum also leads his closest opponent by double digits among Evangelical Christian and Catholic primary voters in the state and holds modest leads among Protestants and non-Christians.

Among Tea Party voters in Oklahoma, it’s Santorum 50%, Gingrich 26%. Among primary voters who say they are not members of the grass roots movement, it’s Santorum 37%, Romney 22% and Gingrich 20%.

Santorum is viewed favorably by 84% of likely Oklahoma primary voters, Gingrich by 63% and Romney by 61%. Only 36% share a favorable opinion of Paul.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Oklahoma primary voters say it’s at least somewhat likely that Romney would beat Obama in November if he wins the nomination, while 73% say that about Santorum. Fifty-seven percent (57%) see a Gingrich win over Obama as likely, but most see a Paul victory as unlikely.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Quinnipiac 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 46% (45%) {47%} [42%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 44% (44%) {42%} [46%] (45%) {41%} [41%] (45%)

• Barack Obama 47%
• Rick Santorum 44%

• Barack Obama 50% (49%) {52%}
• Newt Gingrich 39% (40%) {37%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? 

• Approve 41% (33%) {37%} [32%] (32%)
• Disapprove 55% (61%) {60%} [64%] (62%)

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? 

• Mitt Romney 45% (46%) {43%} [49%] (46%)
• Barack Obama 44% (41%) {46%} [39%] (42%)

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Rick Santorum? 

• Barack Obama 46%
• Rick Santorum 42%

Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Newt Gingrich? 

• Barack Obama 50% (47%)
• Newt Gingrich 39% (41%)

Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? 

• Yes 58% [54%] (54%)
• No 40% [43%] (42%)

Would you say that Rick Santorum cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? 

• Yes 46%
• No 36%

Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

• Yes 40% [43%]
• No 50% [35%]

Would you say that Newt Gingrich cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

• Yes 34%
• No 55%

Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of women or not? 

• Yes 64%
• No 28%

Would you say that Rick Santorum cares about the needs and problems of women or not? 

• Yes 42%
• No 37%

Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of women or not? 

• Yes 41%
• No 41%

Would you say that Newt Gingrich cares about the needs and problems of women or not? 

• Yes 33%
• No 52%

Survey of 2,605 registered voters was conducted February 14-20, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 1.9 percentage points.  Party ID: 30% (32%) Democrat; 28% (25%) Republican; 33% (35%) Independent; 8% (6%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted November 14-20, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 25-31, 2011are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 27 – October 3, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-27, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-11, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 31 – June 6, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-15, 2010 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Field Research California 2012 Republican Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 31% [38%] (26%) {30%} [30%]
• Rick Santorum 25% [18%] (2%) {1%} [2%]
• Ron Paul 16% [9%] (5%) {7%} [8%]
• Newt Gingrich 12% [13%] (23%) {7%} [8%]
• Undecided 14% [18%] (26%) {16%} [18%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 66% (59%) {54%} [56%] / 19% (21%) {27%} [25%] {+47%}
• Rick Santorum 40% (20%) {17%} [29%] / 22% (25%) {19%} [15%] {+18%}
• Newt Gingrich 35% (55%) {34%} [36%] / 52% (22%) {45%} [44%] {-17%}
• Ron Paul 24% (29%) {26%} [34%] / 50% (46%) {42%} [34%] {-26%}

How satisfied are you with the candidates now running for the Republican presidential nomination? 

• Very satisfied 10% (16%) {19%}
• Somewhat satisfied 47% (47%) {47%}
• Not too satisfied 25% (22%) {15%}
• Not at all satisfied 14% (11%) {12%}

Survey of 220 registered Republicans was conducted February 11-18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 7 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 2-10, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-27, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 1-12, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 3-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 28 – March 14, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Rasmussen 2012 Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 46%
• Rick Santorum 43%

• Barack Obama 47%
• Mitt Romney 41%

• Barack Obama 46% (46%) {47%} [48%] (48%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {49%} [49%] (48%) {46%} [46%] (44%) {46%} [48%] (48%) {46%} [47%] (45%) {45%}
• Rick Santorum 43% (44%) {44%} [42%] (40%) {41%} [41%] (42%) {41%} [41%] (41%) {42%} [42%] (45%) {44%} [40%] (38%) {39%} [37%] (34%) {31%}

• Barack Obama 47% (45%) {46%} [47%] (49%) {48%} [47%] (47%) {49%} [48%] (48%) {49%} [50%] (48%) {47%} [48%] (49%) {47%}[46%] (45%) {46%} [47%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (46%) {45%} [46%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 41% (43%) {42%} [43%] (41%) {42%} [43%] (43%) {42%} [42%] (41%) {42%} [40%] (42%) {43%} [42%] (42%) {43%} [44%] (45%) {45%} [43%] (42%) {41%} [43%] (42%) {42%} [43%] (43%) {43%} [43%] (44%)

Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted February 19-21, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.  Results from the poll conducted February 18-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 17-19, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 16-18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 15-17, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 14-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 13-15, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 12-14, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 10-12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 9-11, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conductedFebruary 8-10, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-8, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 5-7, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 3-5, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 2-4, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 1-3, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 30 – February 1, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conductedJanuary 29-31, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-30, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 27-29, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 26-28, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 24-26, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 23-25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-24, 2012are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 21-23, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 20-22, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conductedJanuary 17-21, 2012 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Poll

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Rick Santorum 34%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Ron Paul 17%
• Newt Gingrich 12%
• Don’t know 17% 
  

GENERAL ELECTION 

• Barack Obama 51%
• Rick Santorum 40%

• Barack Obama 53% (48%)
• Mitt Romney 38% (40%)

• Barack Obama 52%
• Ron Paul 36%

• Barack Obama 56%
• Newt Gingrich 33%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 52% (50%) / 43% (44%) {+9%}
• Rick Santorum 30% / 27% {+3%}
• Ron Paul 27% / 37% {-10%}
• Mitt Romney 27% (30%) / 50% (42%) {-23%}
• Newt Gingrich 21% (25%) / 61% (53%) {-40%}

Survey of 716 registered voters, including a subsample of 424 Republican primary voters, was conducted February 16-19, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points among all registered voters.  Party ID: 34% Democrat; 26% Republican; 35% Independent.  Political views: 38% Moderate; 30% Conservative; 14% Liberal; 8% Very conservative; 4% Very liberal.  Results from the poll conductedJanuary 19-22, 2012 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Rick Santorum fell back a point to 35%. Both Gingrich and Romney made it to 37% before falling back. Rick’s hard ceiling appears to be one percentage point shy of that — 36%.

Speaking of Mitt Romney, Mitt reversed his slide of the last two weeks and gained a point to 27%. This puts him at 8 points in back of Santorum.

Newt Gingrich rises a point for the second day in a row bringing him to an even 15%. He is still 20 points behind Santorum and12 points behind Romney. As Newt went down, Santorum went up. They traded voters. So the question becomes, does Newt train his guns on Rick or on Mitt? Emotionally, he wants to take out Romney, but intellectually, he has to know that his only chance at the nomination is to win back the voters that left him to go to Santorum. The upcoming debate will be most interesting to watch.

Finally, Ron Paul slipped back a point to exactly 10%. He has been in the 10% +/- 2% range for the past three weeks.

AP-GfK 2012 Presidential Poll

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

• Rick Santorum 33% {3%} [2%]
• Mitt Romney 32% {27%} [30%]
• Newt Gingrich 15% {33%} [7%]
• Ron Paul 15% {9%} [8%]
• None of them (Vol) 2% {6%} [2%]
• Don’t know (Vol) 3% {6%} [7%]

GENERAL ELECTION

• Barack Obama 51% {47%} [48%]
• Mitt Romney 43% {46%} [45%]

• Barack Obama 52%
• Rick Santorum 43%

• Barack Obama 53%
• Ron Paul 44%

• Barack Obama 52% {51%}
• Newt Gingrich 42% {42%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 50% {48%} [49%] (39%) {45%} [45%] (41%) / 43% {39%} [37%] (41%) {35%} [35%] (33%) {+7%}
• Ron Paul 47% {37%} [38%] (37%) {39%} [36%] / 40% {36%} [35%] (36%) {31%} [35%] {+7%}
• Rick Santorum 44% {25%} [25%] (20%) {25%} [24%] (23%) / 42% {31%} [32%] (31%) {27%} [25%] (21%) {+2%}
• Newt Gingrich 33% {40%} [35%] (27%) {26%} [35%] (40%) / 58% {47%} [51%] (57%) {59%} [47%] (42%){-25%}

Survey of 1,000 adults (84% of whom are registered to vote), including a subsample of 450 Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, was conducted February 16-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points among all adults.  Party ID: 29% Democrat; 25% Republican; 30% Independent.  Results from the poll conductedDecember 8-12, 2011 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted October 13-17, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 18-22, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 16-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-28, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal