Fox News 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 46% [46%] {44%} (46%) [47%] {46%} (44%) [42%] {45%} (47%) [48%] {48%} 
• Mitt Romney 39% [46%] {46%} (42%) [42%] {45%} {42%} [44%] {42%} (41%) [41%] {41%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 46% [49%] {52%} [47%]
• Barack Obama 37% [45%] {38%} [42%]

Among Women

• Barack Obama 55% [47%] {49%} [50%]
• Mitt Romney 33% [42%] {41%} [38%]

Which of the following better describes your view of this year’s presidential election? 

• It’s a choice between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney 52%
• It’s a choice between giving Barack Obama a second term or not 40%

Are you satisfied with the presidential candidate choices, or do you think the presidential election ballot in November should include a “none of the above” option? 

• Satisfied with choices 60%
• “None of the above” should be on the ballot 33%

If Barack Obama and Mitt Romney were investment advisors, which one would you rather have managing your personal money? 

• Mitt Romney 47%
• Barack Obama 34%

If you were hiring a life coach, who would you hire? 

• Barack Obama 47%
• Mitt Romney 33%

If you were starting a small business, who would you rather have as your business partner? 

• Mitt Romney 48%
• Barack Obama 39%

Who do you think would do a better job creating new jobs? 

• Mitt Romney 43%
• Barack Obama 41%

Who do you want to nominate the next Supreme Court Justice?

• Barack Obama 46%
• Mitt Romney 38%

All in all, would you rather have bigger government that provides more services or smaller government that provides fewer services?

• Smaller government, fewer services 53%
• Bigger government, more services 37%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 49% [45%] {42%} (47%) [48%] {45%} (44%) [42%]{43%} (45%) [48%] {51%}
  
• Disapprove 47% [51%] {51%} (45%) [45%] {47%} (51%) [48%] {51%} (46%) [43%] {43%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues?

Afghanistan

• Approve 53% (47%)
  
• Disapprove 39% (45%)

Iran

• Approve 48% (46%)
  
• Disapprove 40% (43%)

Job Creation

• Approve 45%
  
• Disapprove 51%

Health Care

• Approve 44% (43%)
  
• Disapprove 51% (52%)

The Economy

• Approve 43% (42%)
  
• Disapprove 53% (54%)

Immigration

• Approve 38%
  
• Disapprove 49%

The Federal Deficit

• Approve 36% (35%)
  
• Disapprove 59% (56%)

Regardless of how you might vote, do you think the press is being too easy, too tough, or about right in its coverage of Mitt Romney? 

• Too easy 18%
• Too tough 18%
• About right 55%

Regardless of how you might vote, do you think the press is being too easy, too tough, or about right in its coverage of Barack Obama?

• Too easy 35%
• Too tough 15%
• About right 44%

If Barack Obama is re-elected as president, which of the following best describes your feelings? 

• The country’s improving every day and I look forward to another four years 45%
• The country’s going down the drain and I am dreading what is going to happen in the next four years 43%

How do you feel about Mitt Romney’s success in business and the wealth he’s achieved? 

• Admire his success 38%
• Resent it 9%
• Feel indifferent to it 48%

Do you think Barack Obama supports larger government or smaller government? 

• Larger 72%
• Smaller 16%

Do you think Mitt Romney supports larger government or smaller government? 

• Larger 23%
• Smaller 58%

Given the intelligence information that was known, do you think almost anyone who was president would have made the decision to send in U.S. forces to get Usama bin Laden, or was the decision to order the raid so gutsy that only certain presidents would have made that same call? 

• Almost anyone would have made the same decision 59%
• Only certain presidents would have made that decision 35%

If Mitt Romney were president a year ago, do you think he would have sent in U.S. forces to get Usama bin Laden, or not? 

• Yes, he would have 62%
• No, he wouldn’t 24%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 52% [50%] (50%) {51%} / 44% [48%] (47%) {46%} {+8%}
• Mitt Romney 45% [42%] (39%) {45%} / 43% [45%] (49%) {38%} {+2%}
• Joe Biden 41% / 44% {-3%}

Survey of 913 registered voters was conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) May 13-15, 2012. The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points.  Party ID: 42% [43%] {40%} (40%) [44%] {41%} Democrat; 34% [37%] {39%} (37%) [36%] {39%} Republican; 20% [17%] {19%} (21%) [16%] {19%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted April 22-24, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-12, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2012are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-7, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 13-15, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 25-27, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 17-19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 5-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 7-9, 2011 are in curly brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Obama campaign deputy manager Stephanie Cutter dismissed today’s CBS/New York Times poll showing that 67 percent of people believed Obama made his decision on gay marriage for political reasons. Only 24 percent said that Obama did it “mostly because he thinks it is right.”

…

“We can’t put the methodology of that poll aside, because the methodology was significantly biased.” Cutter insisted on MSNBC this morning.

Three thoughts come to my mind on this:

1. When was the last time you saw a Democrat  — any Democrat — claim that The New York Times(!!!) was biased against them?
2. What will be the NYTimes response to Team Obama’s attempt to throw them under the bus like that? They can’t be very pleased.
3. Team Romney has been faced with bad polling news many times since Mitt officially announced his candidacy. (Think of all those flavors-of-the-month that momentarily soared ahead of him, for starters. There were others.) Did they ever once attempt to blame the pollster for less-than-stellar poll numbers? I can’t remember that ever happening. Can you?

I have mentioned a number of times on these pages the number one rule of organizations. They tend to take on the characteristics of their leader. You can see this play out here.

When Team Romney is faced with a problem, their first instinct is to do like their boss and identify the problem and fix it. When Team Obama is faced with a problem, their first instinct is to do like their boss and figure out how they can avoid the blame for it.

It has been my long experience that a team with the first attitude will likely succeed far more than a team with the second attitude. The first approach allows the team to rapidly identify problems and quickly deal with them. It also lets team members know that it is safe to bring up issues of concern. The second approach tends to cover up problems more than solve them. People become afraid of bringing up problems that they might get blamed for, so the tendency is to hide problems instead of dealing with them.

Things like “Julia” would never had made it very far in a team like Mitt’s that is more concerned about solving problems than affixing blame. Someone would have expressed misgivings about it, the problems would be addressed, and if they couldn’t get it to work, it would have been scrapped. In teams that place a high priority on avoiding blame, any criticism of ideas is looked upon as attempts to cast blame, and people get defensive. You do NOT want to make your boss defensive, so you learn to keep your mouth shut if you see a potential problem. So “Julia” likely sailed through the various committees and levels with nary a dissenting voice.

I suspect that this, more than anything else, may be a big reason why little if anything coming out of the Obama Campaign seems to be working. Their internal error checking is severely impaired by their instinctual blame avoidance. With Barack Obama as their head, I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Quinnipiac New Jersey 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 49% [49%] (49%) {48%} [49%] (47%)
• Mitt Romney 39% [40%] (39%) {38%} [40%] (41%)

Among Men

• Barack Obama 45% [42%] (46%) {46%} [47%] (42%)
• Mitt Romney 44% [47%] (44%) {40%} [43%] (46%)
  

Among Women

• Barack Obama 52% [55%] (52%) {49%} [51%] (52%)
• Mitt Romney 34% [34%] (34%) {37%} [36%] (36%)

Let’s say the Democratic ticket is Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president and the Republican ticket is Mitt Romney for president and Chris Christie for vice president. If you were voting today, how would you vote? 

• Obama-Biden 50% [49%] (49%)
• Romney-Christie 42% [42%] (43%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Chris Christie 53% / 39% {+14%}
• Barack Obama 54% [52%] [50%] (47%) / 41% [43%] [44%] (47%) {+13%}
• Joe Biden 41% / 34% {+7%}
• Mitt Romney 35% [39%] [39%] (35%) / 41% [37%] [29%] (31%) {-6%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

• Approve 53% [51%] (51%) {49%} [48%] (43%)
• Disapprove 43% [46%] (45%) {48%} [48%] (52%)

Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

• Yes/Deserves 52% [51%] (51%) {49%} [50%] (47%)
• No/Does not 44% [46%] (44%) {46%} [45%] (48%)

Survey of 1,582 registered voters was conducted May 9-14, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 34% [34%] Democrat; 25% [25%] Republican; 36% [34%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 21-27, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 10-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 9-14, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-10, 2011are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Marquette University Wisconsin General Election Survey

• Obama – 46% (49)
• Romney – 46% (45)

Favorability Ratings

• Obama – 46/49 (50/46)
• Romney – 40/44 (33/46)

Survey of 600 likely voters (respondents who said they were “certain” to vote) was conducted May 9-12 and has a margin of error of ±3.8%. Numbers in parentheses are from the poll completed April 29.

Marquette University Wisconsin Recall Election Survey

• Walker (R) – 50% (48)
• Barrett (D) – 44% (47)

Favorability Ratings:

• Walker – 50/45
• Barrett – 37/45

Survey information not available at this time. Numbers in parentheses are from Marquette’s April poll.

This would be at least three polls now showing Walker with a lead in the area of around 5%.

Gallup Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Romney 45%
• Obama 45%

Each seven-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,050 registered voters; Margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

First of all, PPP took to their Twitter account this morning as soon as Rasmussen’s NC results went public, to (quite unprofessionally) tweak Rasmussen. Rasmussen had Romney up 51-43 in the state, a huge 8 point margin in the key battleground state. PPP must have been a little concerned, because their own poll which was about to be released showed Obama leading Romney 48-47.

Why the significant difference in the two polls?

It’s all about the party ID split.

In 2008, a fantastically amazing year for Democrats, Democrats accounted for 41% of the NC electorate. In the latest PPP poll, Democrats weighed in at 48% of the sample. Amazing!

And from where did all these extra Democrats magically appear? From the ranks of independent voters. In 2008, independents comprised 27% of all NC voters. In PPP-world, that number is down to 18%. Now, independent voters in NC are much more conservative than independents nationwide, and even went to John McCain by a 60-40 margin in 2008. So undersampling independents and then oversampling Democrats by the same margin is a double whammy against the Republican candidate.

In other words, even with a Democratic sample that was +7 greater than 2008 levels and a conservative-leaning independent sample that was -9 compared to 2008, PPP could still only get Obama a one-point lead. PPP gives us yet another strong case for weighting polls by Party ID with this pathetic entry.

Folks, I am ready to call it: North Carolina is being moved out of the tossup category and into the Leans Romney category.

UPDATE: Using the 2008 exit poll data, this result is reweighted to a 48-46 Romney lead. Using the 2004 exit poll data, this result is reweighted to a massive 52-42 Romney lead. (And for anyone who thinks the D/R/I split in 2012 will be the same or better for Dems as it was in 2008, I have a bridge to sell you…)

PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 48% 
• Mitt Romney 47%

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 51%  
  
• Barack Obama 44% 

Among Women

• Barack Obama 53% 
• Mitt Romney 43%

If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for President and Richard Burr for Vice President, which would you vote for?

• Obama-Biden 48%
• Romney-Burr 46%

If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who would you vote for?

• Barack Obama 46%
• Mitt Romney 44%
• Gary Johnson 6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 37% / 53% {-16%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 41% / 50% {-9%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 34% / 56% {-22%}

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Johnson?

• Favorable 6%
• Unfavorable 16%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 48%
• Disapprove 50% 
  

Survey of 666 North Carolina voters was conducted May 10-13, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 48% Democrat; 34% Republican; 18% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 29% Moderate; 25% Somewhat conservative; 19% Very conservative; 17% Somewhat liberal; 11% Very liberal. 

• Barack Obama 48% {49%} [49%] (47%) {46%} [46%] (45%){46%} [45%] (46%) {45%} [45%] (46%) {47%} [44%] (47%) {47%} [46%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 47% {44%} [46%] (46%) {45%} [46%] (46%) {45%} [44%] (43%) {45%} [44%] (43%) {44%} [42%] (44%) {44%} [43%] (44%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 51% {49%} [54%] (53%) {53%} [54%] (54%) {53%} [51%] (49%) {48%} [48%] (47%) {43%} [44%] (49%) {45%} [49%] (52%) 
• Barack Obama 44% {43%} [42%] (39%) {39%} [39%] (39%) {36%} [38%] (38%) {41%} [46%] (41%) {49%} [42%] (44%) {43%} [39%] (37%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama 53% {54%} [55%] (55%) {51%} [53%] (50%) {54%} [51%] (52%) {49%} [45%] (50%) {44%} [46%] (50%) {51%} [53%] (50%) 
• Mitt Romney 43% {39%} [39%] (39%) {38%} [38%] (40%) {37%} [39%] (38%) {41%} [40%] (39%) {46%} [41%] (39%) {42%} [39%] (37%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 37% {29%} [31%] (31%) {34%} [32%] (36%) {32%} [28%] (32%) {32%} [35%] (30%) {31%} [32%] (37%) {33%} [34%] (33%) / 53% {58%} [56%] (56%) {48%} [51%] (47%) {49%} [52%] (46%) {47%} [44%] (43%) {44%} [41%] (39%) {36%} [39%] (38%) {-16%}
  

Among Men

 

• Mitt Romney 41% {34%} [34%] (36%) {38%} [33%] (39%) {35%} [33%] (36%) {37%} [34%] (33%) {31%} [33%] (45%) {37%} [36%] (39%) / 50% {56%}  [55%] (52%) {48%} [55%] (46%) {48%} [55%] (48%) {52%} [53%] (47%) {50%} [43%] (40%) {36%} [47%] (39%) {-9%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 34% {24%} [28%] (27%) {30%} [32%] (33%) {28%} [23%] (29%) {28%} [36%] (28%) {31%} [31%] (29%) {31%} [32%] (29%) / 56% {60%} [57%] (60%) {48%} [48%] (47%) {50%} [49%] (44%) {42%} [36%] (40%) {38%} [40%] (38%) {36%} [32%] (38%) {-22%}

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 48% {49%} [49%] (48%) {47%} [47%] (45%) {44%} [43%] (46%) {45%} [49%] (50%) {49%} [48%] (47%) {49%} [46%] (45%)
• Disapprove 50% {48%} [49%] (49%) {49%} [50%] (50%) {53%} [53%] (50%) {51%} [47%] (46%) {48%} [46%] (48%) {47%} [49%] (51%)

Results from the poll conducted April 4-7, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 8-11, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 3-5, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 5-8, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 1-4, 2011are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 27-31, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 30 – October 3, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conductedSeptember 1-4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 4-7, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 8-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 12-15, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 14-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 17-20, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 16-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-19, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.

Party ID breakdown: 48% {46%} [45%] (43%) {48%} [47%] (46%) {48%} [46%] (48%) {46%} [47%] (48%) {46%} [45%] (45%) {47%} [46%] (49%) Democrat; 34% {35%} [34%] (35%) {34%} [35%] (35%) {36%} [34%] (35%) {33%} [36%] (36%) {36%} [38%] (37%) {36%} [34%] (35%) Republican; 18% {20%} [21%] (23%) {18%} [18%] (19%) {16%} [19%] (18%) {21%} [16%] (16%) {18%} [17%] (18%) {18%} [21%] (17%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 29% {24%} [29%] (29%) {30%} [30%] (31%) {28%} [28%] (28%) {30%} [31%] (31%) {32%} [28%] Moderate; 25% {25%} [25%] (24%) {27%} [24%] (27%) {25%} [22%] (30%) {25%} [27%] (26%) {22%} [23%] Somewhat conservative; 19% {22%} [20%] (22%) {18%} [19%] (17%) {22%} [22%] (19%) {20%} [17%] (18%) {22%} [24%] Very conservative; 17% {19%} [15%] (15%) {16%} [17%] (17%) {16%} [16%] (16%) {16%} [17%] (15%) {14%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 11% {10%} [12%] (10%) {10%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [11%] (7%) {9%} [9%] (10%) {9%} [9%] Very liberal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Crossroads GPS Launches $25 Million TV Ad Initiative Over Next Month to Frame Debate on Economy, ObamaCare, Debt

New ad series to spotlight President Obama’s economic and fiscal policies includes $8 million initial TV ad, “Obama’s Promise,” which airs in 10 states.

WASHINGTON – Today, Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies (Crossroads GPS) announced a new $25 million issue advocacy initiative over the next four weeks to frame the national debate on jobs, the economy, ObamaCare and government debt.

The first phase of the initiative launches Thursday with the airing of a new Crossroads GPS TV ad, “Obama’s Promise,” which details the Obama Administration’s poor results on fixing the troubled economy, cutting the debt, keeping taxes low and other key issues.

The initial television buy includes network affiliates in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

The new spot will start airing Thursday, May 17 and run through May 31 in an $8m initial buy. The spot can be viewed here, and is available for high resolution download upon request.

“President Obama made commitments on core issues to the American people, and this ad holds him to account,” said Steven Law, president of Crossroads GPS. “Our country faces serious economic and fiscal problems which require practical solutions and not just promises. If we don’t hold Washington politicians accountable, we won’t fix these problems that are holding our country back.”

The ad urges citizens to support the “New Majority Agenda.” For more information about the six major policy initiatives detailed in the plan, visit www.newmajorityagenda.org

Since President Obama took office in January 2009, the national debt has increased by more than $5 trillion, 45% more people are on food stamps, gas prices have doubled, and job growth is anemic, leaving record numbers of Americans to simply give up looking for work and leave the workforce. Obama and his advisors promised that the stimulus bill would prevent the unemployment rate from rising above 8%, but it has been above 8% for every month of Obama’s presidency since February 2009, and the real unemployment rate is considered much higher by economists.

Crossroads GPS is a policy and grassroots advocacy organization that is committed to educating, equipping and mobilizing millions of American citizens to take action on the critical economic and legislative issues that will shape our nation’s future in the years ahead.