First up, Team Obama:

President Obama was in Denver this afternoon for a fundraiser. But the event does not appear to have been quite the success the campaign was hoping for.

According to today’s White House pooler, the New York Times‘s Peter Baker, “The crowd was obviously supportive and glad to see him, though the room at times felt a little flat and Potus seemed a little tired after a long day that’s not even close to being over.” (The president has two more fundraisers tonight in Los Angeles.)

Moreover, the campaign announced that the president “[would] headline a reception for 700 at the Hyatt Regency Denver at the Colorado Convention Center. General admission tickets started at $500 apiece, though a selected number of Gen44 and Grassroots tickets were available for $250.”

The campaign now says, according to the pooler, that only 550 people showed up.

…

That’s a 21% no-show rate. Add that to the memory of all those empty seats at his campaign kick-off events and the video of the bored spectators?

Now check out how Team Romney has been doing:

He gave a well-received speech on Education at the US Chamber of Commerce today. This followed a three-day fundraising swing through the New York area that netted $15 million.

Back to Team Obama:

Some influential Democrats on and off Capitol Hill are refusing to give President Obama political cover for his attacks on Mitt Romney’s record at Bain Capital.

Despite pushback from more than a half-dozen Democrats, the Obama campaign on Tuesday defended how it has scrutinized Romney’s business background.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), a widely respected member of Congress, stopped short of criticizing the president, but made it clear that the campaign should pivot.

“It’s done,” she said. “Go on to other things now.”

…

And Team Romney:

Top Republicans, long privately skeptical about their presidential prospects, are coming around to a surprising new view — that Mitt Romney may well win the White House this November.

…

Republican officials have been genuinely impressed with the former Massachusetts governor and his campaign of late.

“Romney has kept the focus on the economy and jobs,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a longtime party strategist. “He hasn’t made any mistakes since securing the nomination. And he has been willing to take the high ground on things like the proposed Rev. Wright attacks. Romney looks like an adult.”

One team seems tired, listless.. The other seems energized. One is having trouble reaching fundraising goals. The other is raking in more money than ever before. One team is seeing public rifts in their party over campaign strategy. The other is seeing their strategy win kudos from their party’s various factions. One team seems to have difficulty doing anything right. The other can’t seem to do anything wrong. One team’s party is starting to realize that they may lose this thing. The other team’s party is starting to realize that they may win this thing.

We still have more than five months to go before the election, That is an eternity in Politics, but unless Team Obama can turn things around, they are going to be on the outside looking in come next January.

For a musical artist, my grandfather (whom I do not remember; I was two when he died) obviously had some business skills as well in a very volatile and risky period of American capitalism, and he managed not only to survive, but to grow his business over the years until it occupied the floors of two five-storey buildings on opposite sides of upper State Street, Erie’s main downtown thoroughfare. He made it through a financial panic in 1907, a World War from 1917-18 and then the stock market crash in 1929. His business went on, however, and he put his money in as safe a place as you seemingly could in those days, The Second National Bank of Erie. By 1933, however, the Depression was worsening, and many banks were teetering. “Runs” on many banks were common (where panicky depositors lined up to withdraw their savings). When there was a run on the Second National Bank, thinking this was America and not Russia, my grandfather did not get in line to try to withdraw his money. In a short time, the bank ran out of funds to pay depositors, and it closed its doors forever. All his money was lost There was no bank insurance and no recourse. Not all the banks closed, and not all the deposits were lost, but in February and March, 1933, the nation came close to the collapse of its entire banking system. On March 4, 1933, a new president of the United States was inaugurated, and one of the first things he did was close all the banks in America for a few days, “a bank holiday,” he called it, and through his inaugural speech and aggressive action in his first hours and days in office, restored enough public confidence to re-open the banks without further panic.

Today, there is in the United States a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) that guarantees, as a form of insurance, all deposits under $100,000 in U.S. banks (this limit has been expanded to $250,000 per account until the end of 2013). When banks have failed since 1934, no depositors have lost any money (shareholders in the banks, however, presumably did). Of course, this guarantee is not quite as
absolutely certain as some might think. It assumes that the guarantor, the U.S. government and treasury have enough money (“full faith and credit”) to back up the losses. The recent bailouts of major U.S. banks, following the mortgage banking crisis, were not bailouts of depositors in those banks. They were bailouts of the shareholders and the creditors of those banks.

I have told the story of my grandfather because, with the increasing reports of panic in Europe, and runs on some of its banks, as the European Union faces a continuing economic crisis, I think it may be useful to remember a time when panic and bank runs were very real and very devastating in the U.S.

I don’t know how he did it, but my grandfather somehow survived the loss of all his money in the Second National Bank of Erie. I think I remember hearing he took on a partner in the business who invested some cash.  It was a difficult time to be in the furniture business, or any retail business. Few persons had any money to buy things. My grandfather’s furniture business was not an upscale one. It sold furniture to blue collar and working poor families in Erie, and often on credit that was not paid for an extended period of time. His willingness to
extend credit beyond normal limits created a very special loyalty for thousands of his Erie customers, most of whom did ultimately pay their bills during those difficult Depression days. After it was over, and World War II’ was over, most of them, now earning good money in the post-War period, came back again and again to buy their furniture. from Masiroff’s. When I was a teen-ager and worked in the family business (first as a janitor, but later as a salesman), I heard numerous stories from customers who told me how Masiroff’s helped them through bad times, and now they would buy their furniture and appliances at no other store. Younger customers would tell me time and again how their parents and grandparents insisted they buy their furniture only at Masiroff’s.

(By the 1970′s, however, family furniture stores, and many other family businesses, were replaced by chain stores and discount stores if they did not adapt. My uncle, my grandfather’s only surviving son, managed the store for the family, but he did not adapt. The business was liquidated at pennies on the dollar.)

In Germany and France today, the governments are in a position to stabilize their banking systems, even in the present period where most of the nation states of the European Union have a common currency, the euro. Great Britain, wisely it now seems, did not accept the euro, even though it joined the EU. Smaller European nations, however, are in deep trouble. There is now an expectation that Greece will
withdraw from the euro, and reinstate its former currency, the drachma. Anticipating this, many Greeks are beginning to withdraw their euro deposits from Greek banks, and depositing them in banks in Germany, Switzerland and France. They have assumed that, at the moment Greece withdraws from the euro, their accounts will automatically become drachmas that will quickly lose their value in
relationship to the euro of the rest of Europe. This scenario could then be repeated in Spain, Italy, Portugal and other smaller EU countries. These countries and their treasuries might not have the reserves to back up their local banks. Like my grandfather, the citizens of these countries could be wiped out financially, and this could lead rather quickly to a virtual collapse of most of the European economy.

This is, of course, the worst case outcome. Europe still has a very large economy, and Germany, most of Scandinavia, France and Great Britain still have very significant financial resources. The worldwide Depression of the 1920′s and 30″s was preceded by the collapse of a speculative “bubble,” but the true impact of disaster occurred because of the disappearance of credit in the money supply. In Europe, especially in Weimar Germany (a brief republic), extraordinary inflation, accompanied by massive unemployment, wiped out the post-war economies. In Russia, a decadent absolutist monarchy was also briefly replaced by a liberal regime, but the Russian economy had, at that time, little heavy industry, few entrepreneurs, no available investment capital, much actual starvation,  and no past experience with democracy. It was thus easy prey to an insurgent and predatory communist takeover.

2012 is not 1932, but the basic conditions of human life remain unaltered. In a healthy democratic capitalist society, bad times are transformed into good times again. A healthy society not only provides for its poorest members, it provides opportunity for all its members to succeed and thrive.  Only a very few centenarian Americans alive today remember well those scary times in 1932-33 when the U.S. banking system teetered on the edge of collapse, and real revolution was in the air. What would have happened if Franklin Roosevelt had
not brought calm and then confidence back to the banking  and free market system? The answer is that a political and economic system we now take for granted might have collapsed into anarchy, and who knows what after that.

The worst case is what did happen in parts of Europe then, and the cost was hundreds of millions of lives, unspeakable violence and human depravity.

Many more persons now live in Europe, and their standard of living, even in the poorest of countries, is many levels above the poverty and despair that existed only 80 years ago. When I read about runs on the banks in Europe, however, I think about how unsympathetic and impersonal history can be when political and economic leaders behave badly.

I’m just saying.

________________________________________________________________

-Copyright (c) 2012 by Barry Casselman.  All rights reserved. Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site. 

PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 50% [47%] (49%) {48%} [49%] (50%) 
• Barack Obama 43% [47%] (42%) {44%} [43%] (43%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 55% [51%] (54%) {52%} [52%] (53%)
• Barack Obama 36% [44%] (36%) {41%} [38%] (42%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama 49% [49%] (47%) {47%} [46%] (45%)
• Mitt Romney 45% [43%] (44%) {44%} [47%] (46%)

If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 45%
• Barack Obama 41%
• Gary Johnson 9%

If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for President and Jan Brewer for Vice President, which would you vote for?

• Romney-Brewer 48%
• Obama-Biden 44%

If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for President and John McCain for Vice President, which would you vote for?

• Romney-McCain 48%
• Obama-Biden 43%

If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for President and Joe Arpaio for Vice President, which would you vote for?

• Romney-Arpaio 46%
• Obama-Biden 44%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 46% [35%] (38%) {45%} [44%] (40%) / 45% [56%] (51%) {37%} [38%] (39%) {+1%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 51% [36%] (38%) {50%} [45%] (44%) / 43% [55%] (57%) {35%} [40%] (40%) {+8%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 42% [34%] (38%) {41%} [43%] (37%) / 46% [57%] (46%) {40%} [37%] (37%) {-4%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 41% [46%] (41%) {46%} [45%] (47%)
• Disapprove 56% [52%] (54%) {50%} [51%] (47%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jan Brewer’s job performance?

• Approve 47%
• Disapprove 45%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John McCain’s job performance?

• Approve 36%
• Disapprove 54%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Arpaio?

• Favorable 46%
• Unfavorable 45%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Johnson?

• Favorable 7%
• Unfavorable 14%

Survey of 500 Arizona voters voters was conducted May 17-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID: 46% [46%] (41%) {43%} [40%] (42%) Republican; 31% [31%] (38%) {34%} [36%] (37%) Democrat; 23% [23%] (21%) {23%} [24%] (22%) Independent/Other. Political views: 27% [22%] (25%) {25%} Somewhat conservative; 24% [30%] (25%) {33%} Moderate; 21% [23%] (21%) {17%} Very conservative; 14% [17%] (17%) {17%} Somewhat liberal; 14% [9%] (13%) {7%} Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 17-19, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 17-20, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 28 – May 1, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-21, 2009 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

That sums it up quite nicely, don’t you think?

NBC/WSJ/Telemundo 2012 Latino Presidential Poll

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 61%
• Disapprove 32%

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the economy?

• Approve 54%
• Disapprove 38%

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling foreign policy?

• Approve 53%
• Disapprove 32%

How confident are you that Barack Obama has the right set of goals and policies to improve the economy?

• Extremely confident 15%
• Quite confident 19%
• Only somewhat confident 42%
• Not at all confident 23%

How confident are you that Mitt Romney has the right set of goals and policies to improve the economy?

• Extremely confident 7%
• Quite confident 8%
• Only somewhat confident 36%
• Not at all confident 40%

Survey of 300 Hispanic/Latino adults, including a subsample of 188 registered Hispanic/Latino voters, was conducted May 16-21, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 5.66 percentage points among adults; +/- 7.15 percentage points among registered voters.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Now, not so much. From Politico:

Top Republicans, long privately skeptical about their presidential prospects, are coming around to a surprising new view — that Mitt Romney may well win the White House this November.

Margin-of-error polling, fundraising parity last month, conservative consolidation around Romney and a still-sluggish economy has senior GOP officials increasingly bullish about a nominee many winced over during a difficult primary process.

Interviews with about two dozen Republican elected officials, aides, strategists and lobbyists reveal a newfound optimism that with a competent, on-message campaign, Romney will be at least competitive with a weakened incumbent. That’s a dramatic shift from the fatalistic view many party stalwarts shared mere weeks ago.

“Romney is a lot better off than I expected him to be this quickly,” said former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who cast a primary vote for Newt Gingrich.

…

“But that he’s this close has surprised and encouraged me — and I think it has encouraged Republicans around the country.”

…

Republican hopes are rising also because their fears over Obama’s campaign are dissipating.

…“Barack Obama is the great uniter of Republicans,” quipped Barbour, noting that any conservative concerns over Romney are trumped by the burning desire on the right to unseat the president.

Among GOP elites, though, the newborn optimism over Romney owes to more than just contempt for the alternative. Republican officials have been genuinely impressed with the former Massachusetts governor and his campaign of late.

“Romney has kept the focus on the economy and jobs,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a longtime party strategist. “He hasn’t made any mistakes since securing the nomination. And he has been willing to take the high ground on things like the proposed Rev. Wright attacks. Romney looks like an adult.”

…

It seems that a competent candidate running a competent campaign brightens everyone’s spirits. It must be a welcome relief after our 2008 debacle. Here’s one telling quote from the article:

…

What few Republicans want to say with attribution is that they’re heartened by how different Romney’s campaign is from McCain’s four years ago. If the Arizonan had a “pirate ship,” Romney is skippering a royal navy vessel minus the rum ration.

“You don’t have to worry about in-fighting, the possibility of a coup all the time,” one Republican strategist said. Obama and the Democrats. They seem to be in a funk as of late.

…

Considering the steady talk we keep hearing about Obama possibly dumping Joe Biden for Hillary Clinton, I would hazard a guess that Obama and the Democrats are indeed in a “funk”.

…

More than 150 years ago, our nation pioneered public education.  We’ve now fallen way behind.

Among developed countries, the United States comes in 14th of 34 in reading, 17th of 34 in science, and an abysmal 25th out of 34 in math.

Our public education system is supposed to ensure that every child gets a strong start in life.  Yet, one in four students fails to attain a high school degree. And in our major cities, half of our kids won’t graduate.  Imagine that.

…

But America’s public education establishment shows no sense of urgency.  Instead, there is a fierce determination to keep things the way they are.

Here we are in the most prosperous nation, but millions of kids are getting a third-world education. And, America’s minority children suffer the most.  This is the civil-rights issue of our era.  It’s the great challenge of our time.

…

Of course, the jobs and housing failures of these past few years only make the need for educational improvement all the more critical.  So I’ll be blunt: I don’t like the direction of American education, and as President, I will do everything in my power to reverse this decline.

…

First, I will expand parental choice in an unprecedented way.  Too many of our kids are trapped in schools that are failing or simply don’t meet their needs.  And for too long, we’ve merely talked about the virtues of school choice.

As President, I will give the parents of every low-income and special needs student the chance to choose where their child goes to school.  For the first time in history, federal education funds will be linked to a student, so that parents can send their child to any public or charter school, or to a private school, where permitted.  And I will make that choice meaningful by ensuring there are sufficient options to exercise it.

To receive the full complement of federal education dollars, states must provide students with ample school choice.  In addition, digital learning options must not be prohibited.  And charter schools or similar education choices must be scaled up to meet student demand.

…

The teachers unions are the clearest example of a group that has lost its way.  Whenever anyone dares to offer a new idea, the unions protest the loudest.

Their attitude was memorably expressed by a long-time president of the American Federation of Teachers:  He said, quote, “When school children start paying union dues, that’s when I’ll start representing the interests of children.”

…

President Obama has made his choice, and I have made mine: As president, I will be a champion of real education reform in America, and I won’t let any special interest get in the way.

We have to stop putting campaign cash ahead of our kids.

…

There is a great deal more where that came from. Be sure and go read it.

This rough patch (to put it lightly) has armchair pundits questioning whether or not the Democrats – and specifically President Obama – can actually compete in the Tar Heel state come November. Even Democratic strategists in the state are saying it’s close to a lost cause:

Today, though, it’s hard to find a Democrat in the capital of Raleigh who believes the president, saddled with the burdens of governing and a sputtering economy, can stir the enthusiasm of 2008 and repeat his near-flawless North Carolina performance…

Gary Pearce, a longtime Democratic consultant and adviser to former Gov. Jim Hunt, [said] “This is a tight state for him. Race is part of it. The economy is a big problem. Four years ago he was new, he was exciting. He was hope and change. That has worn off now. The glow is gone. It’s going to be tough for him to catch magic in the bottle again.”

…The president’s path to victory becomes even narrower if Republican turnout grows from the dismal 31% showing of 2008 — a certainty according to political operatives in Raleigh who watched in 2010 as a fired-up GOP captured both houses of the state Legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.

It’s all enough for Jim Geraghty to make this aside in his latest Morning Jolt:

Yeah, Democrats aren’t going to contest the Tarheel State that much this year. Public Policy Polling will insist otherwise, but…

Now it may very well be the case that things start looking up for the Democrats there in the next five months leading up to the election. That’s a long time in politics. But at the moment, there’s a good chance North Carolina will be the second light blue 2008 state (after Indiana) that Obama 2012 will give up on.

Gallup Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Romney 46%
• Obama 46%

Each seven-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,050 registered voters; Margin of error is ±2 percentage points.