It is absolutely a bad sign that Rudy Giuliani’s senior staff have decided to work without paychecks, and there is no way to spin it otherwise. The amount of money that’s involved is miniscule: about $50,000 per month.
So the campaign must really have a cash on hand problem. Breaking News: Giuliani’s national finance chair, Roy Bailey, no longer has that position with the campaign. Bailey was not only Giuliani’s finance chair, he was one of the founding partners of Giuliani’s consulting firm.
What’s going on in the Giuliani campaign? This can’t be good. I don’t quite understand it though. Wasn’t the purpose of pulling out of Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina justified as necessary in order to hoard resources to make a last stand in Florida? And yet the campaign can’t make a $50,000 payroll?
My suggestion earlier today that Rudy and John McCain may be, at some level, cooperating with each other in this early primary season to bump-off the others in the field generated a decent amount of discussion here. It was even picked up by WKRN-TV 2 News in Tennessee today, and put on their website. It’s amazing how in our hyperventilating political environment pure rumor becomes news. A friend asked me to elaborate on what I mean by “collusion,” so here’s my take (and there are many others on this site who are much more astute analysts than I, so have at it):
Rudy and McCain are pretty good friends. They reportedly met a number of times before either formally announced their candidacies in ’07 (although these were probably more friendly social meetings in New York City for dinner, rather than serious strategy sessions). Rudy said last year that had he not decided to run, he would have endorsed McCain. Obviously, both are serious about their own candidacies, and each wants to win. But I think it is very likely that should McCain’s candidacy stumble, or Rudy’s for that matter, that either one would endorse the other.
Rudy’s success has always been based on making his move in the “later” primaries, starting with Florida on Jan. 29th, and moving on to the massive primary date of Feb. 5th. He never seriously competed in Iowa or New Hampshire, or South Carolina for that matter, but made appearances in those states primarily to start building a rapport with the voters with an eye toward the general election, not the primaries. A story out today is that Rudy is “abandoning” Michigan. The truth is, Rudy didn’t have any campaign organization in Michigan (the “campaign” was run by local officials supporting Rudy, acting as surrogates), so there was nothing to abandon. His goal is to win the winner-take-all primary in Florida, and then pretty much sweep the table on Feb. 5th in states like California, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Connecticut.
But in order to wait that long to get his campaign officially in gear, Rudy needed the earlier primaries to result in chaos with no clear frontrunner. So far, that prerequisite has been established — Huck won Iowa; McCain won NH.
The biggest threat to Rudy’s candidacy has always been Romney, mainly because of his ability to spend unlimited amounts of his own money. Romney needed to be bloodied, and perhaps knocked from the race, but Rudy couldn’t do that and concentrate on Florida and Feb. 5. Huck and McCain did it for him by knocking off Romney in the two states that Romney, by his own strategy, needed to establish himself as the front runner. Now, for Romney, he desperately needs Michigan. Rudy made something of an effort in NH, but when it became clear that Huck was the one making the move in Iowa, according to my theory, Rudy pulled out of NH, making a win there easier for McCain (polls likely show that they appeal to similar voters). With McCain having the momentum, Rudy’s decision to stand aside in Michigan, and in South Carolina, increases the likelihood that McCain will win in Michigan (driving the final nail into Romney’s coffin), and in SC (where McCain is now the frontrunner, and driving a stake into the heart of Huckabee’s candidacy). Again, McCain’s chances in both states are improved by Rudy ignoring them.
Since the nature of the race seems to change daily, we could come to Jan. 29th and the Florida primary with the situation that McCain has effectively crippled both Romney and Huckabee, and Rudy winning big in Florida. He has a lead of over 5% on Huck there, and he is running hard. With what will be a barrage of policy initiatives (yesterday’s dramatic tax reform proposal announced in Florida, and today’s announcement of a federal backstop to protect Florida residents against losses from natural disaster…since many or most can’t get insurance against hurricanes and such — a major issue in Florida), and non-stop campaigning, Rudy should only build on his lead.
Huck’s probably at his high-water mark. As it sinks into the minds of Republicans that Huckabee is less like Ronald Reagan and more like Jimmy Carter, and with a possible loss to McCain in SC, he will not be able to compete with Rudy in Florida, where Rudy is strong in the cities, and within the Cuban-American community. Romney has already announced that he will not be renewing his TV ad buys in Florida or SC, focusing on MI which is a must-win for him. McCain may have momentum going into Florida, but right now the new money that is coming in since he won New Hampshire is being plowed into Michigan and South Carolina (despite what Politico reported, I’ve heard that McCain is using his new money to buy ads in those two states), and McCain doesn’t have much of an organization in Florida.
So, Rudy did McCain a favor by pulling back in NH, MI, and SC, where McCain may now win all three. McCain is doing Rudy a favor by cutting up Romney and Huckabee. Rudy enters his strategic window in the primaries within three weeks, having stayed above the fray, having spent his money wisely. My take is that despite momentum for McCain, he will hit a speed bump in Florida, and will hit the wall on Feb. 5th. Regardless, by the second week of February, the two front runners, maybe the only two viably in the race, will be Rudy and John McCain.
I don’t actually believe that Rudy and McCain are deliberately coordinating their campaigns, but I do think they are benefitting one another, and have the attitude that once Romney and Huckabee are out of the way, may the best man win. I don’t think either would be upset, whomever fails to win the nomination, seeing the other go on to get it.
It’s interesting that as Rudy’s numbers have gone down in national polls, McCain’s have gone up. With the McCain-friendly states of NH and Michigan (he won both in ’00) coming up, Rudy coasted, allowing McCain to get more of the media’s attention. It hurt Rudy in the polls, but benefitted his campaign by allowing McCain to overtake Romney (and likely Huckabee in SC). He was hurt in the national polls, but never really lost his lead in the state he actually needed — Florida. NPR correspondent, and Fox News analyst, Juan Williams told Bill O’Reilly last night that Rudy’s campaign was dead in the water because the media was ignoring him. I’d be willing put my analysis up against Williams’s, and we’ll see who’s correct. And if he proves to be wrong, I’d be pleased to take his place on Fox News.
Despite the national polls, Rudy’s still the one to beat. (Besides, the dismal performance of the polls in New Hampshire have left everyone with the thought that no one should bet the farm on what the polls say.) Rudy said he’d be running an unconventional campaign, and he’s doing so, but it’s a winnable strategy considering how the race has developed. The media pundits have only proven that they are uncreative in their thinking, locked in their rigid conventional wisdom, which hasn’t been very reliable this year. Other than meteorologists, political pundits on cable news channels are the only people who actually get to be consistently wrong and still keep their jobs. But they will be hailing Rudy’s “miracle comeback” on Feb. 6th.
I posted here that Rudy and McCain are may be colluding, primarly to tweak the Romney supporters here, which are many. They are already paranoid, so I’m just throwing on more fuel. But as I said, and this is key, watch which states McCain needs at the moment to finish-off Romney and Huckabee, and in which states Rudy is getting out of the way. They are the same states.
As to their “colluding” back in the summer, when both announced on the same day that each would not participate in the Iowa strawpoll in August, I thought something might be up, and that their campaigns might be sending each other messages. Both withdrawing from the strawpoll was a way of depreciating the value of the poll to Mitt Romney, who was at the time their main competition. Huck didn’t rise until later, and interestingly, his doing well in the strawpoll gave a lift to his campaign, which signaled that perhaps Huckabee would take down Romney in Iowa, which he did.
As for Fred, I never believed he’d be a viable candidate, even over the spring and summer when he was being shoved down our throats as the “savior” of the Republican Party. Getting 1% in New Hampshire pretty much tells us where his campaign is at.
One person’s take on the race as it now stands. Time, and not much of it, will prove if I’m right.
I hate to traffic in rumor, but….
Flap has a post today on the possibility of a brokered GOP convention this September. In it, he raises the question, not so much of a brokered convention, but of an ultimate deal between Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.
I posted a comment, a muse, actually, to Flap’s post that it would be interesting to note what states McCain is putting his effort into, and where Rudy is running hard. Polls today show McCain the new leader in South Carolina, and Michigan is likely to vote for him. Rudy’s emphasis is obviously Florida, and the big Feb. 5th states. Are they working to avoid going head-to-head against one another?
Last year, McCain and Rudy both decided to forego the August Iowa strawpoll, and announced their seemingly independent decisions on the same day, thereby reducing the value of the strawpoll to its eventual winner, Mitt Romney. McCain ran well in NH, of course, and Rudy, after an initial effort there, backed off. Did he do so to give McCain less competition? McCain should do well in Michigan, and now is the favorite in South Carolina; Rudy has lowered his profile in both states. Rudy’s best shot is Florida. Is McCain working the state? And where is McCain on the major Feb. 5th states? Are they avoiding direct competition with one another?
I’m not saying McCain and Rudy are colluding, but the scenario that they could pool their resources at some point before the convention is a possibility, theoretically speaking.
Update: With reports from The Macomb Daily, a Michigan newspaper that Rudy is giving up in Michigan, it is increasing likely that McCain will take the state.
Looks like Rudy is deferring to his surrogate, John McCain, in Michigan. 
It’s been rumored for the past few days and today the campaign makes it official:
Rudy Giuliani’s campaign is pulling the plug on Michigan after serving as this state’s Republican front-runner for most of 2007.
With his support plummeting to single digits in a new poll, the former New York City mayor has planned no campaign stops here before Tuesday’s primary. Giuliani’s Michigan campaign chair, U.S. Rep. Candice Miller, said the few campaign staffers in Michigan are pulling up stakes and heading to other key states.
Miller said Giuliani is standing firm with his do-or-die plan to forge a win in the Jan. 29 Florida primary and then rack up a bounty of GOP delegates on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, when two dozen states vote.
“He’s going to the mat with the Florida strategy,” said Miller, a Harrison Township Republican. “It’s risky. It’s a unique strategy. But this is a unique year.”
Hizzoner discusses his new tax plan with Neil Cavuto on Fox Business:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LjinfOW6BI&eur[/youtube]
Hat-tip: Flap
“Plan would cut the capital gains tax, slash the corporate income tax, and create a simplified alternate tax system for families and small businesses.”
WASHINGTON, DC – Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani today released a pro-growth tax cut package. This multi-trillion dollar tax cut would easily exceed the level of the Reagan or Bush tax cuts. This package is the most pro-growth tax cut of any GOP presidential candidate.Giuliani’s tax plan makes all the Bush tax cuts permanent, including full repeal of the death tax. It indexes the alternative minimum tax (AMT) to inflation, and eventually repeals it. It reduces the corporate income tax from today’s 35 percent, the second-highest in the developed world, to 25 percent, more in line with our European competitors. It slashes the capital gains and qualified dividends tax rate from 15 percent to 10 percent (and indexes capital assets to inflation), which will boost the value of every American’s 401(k) and IRA. It replaces the current hodgepodge of dozens of tax-advantaged savings accounts with a simplified system of Retirement Savings Accounts and Lifetime Savings Accounts. It gives all Americans the ability to purchase health insurance pre-tax through a health care standard deduction.
“This tax cut-the largest in history-would represent a monumental leap forward for the American taxpayer and the U.S. economy,” said ATR President Grover Norquist. “In particular, cutting the corporate income tax and the capital gains tax is just what is needed to keep us from falling into recession.”
In addition, the Giuliani tax cut plan creates an alternate “Fair And Simple Tax (FAST)” system that American families and small businesses could choose to go into each year, with a three-bracket structure, a 30 percent top rate, and only the most popular deductions in place.
“Most Americans, when given the choice to go into this simplified system, will flock toward it and never switch back,” continued Norquist. “Hong Kong has had an alternate tax system for years and the vast majority of residents use it happily.”
In addition to his tax cut proposal, Giuliani has committed in writing to the American people to oppose and veto all tax increases. This pledge has also been adopted by every other Republican presidential candidate except John McCain and Fred Thompson. It hasn’t been adopted by any Democrat presidential hopeful.
See the full release here.
Yours truly was interviewed for the below piece in Cybercast News. The link for the whole story follows these excerpts and comments.
By Evan Moore
CNSNews.com Correspondent
January 09, 2008(CNSNews.com) – Following Sen. John McCain’s victory in the New Hampshire primary, the South Carolina primary looms as the next major electoral battle. And two presumptive Republican leaders in the state – former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee – may face a tougher challenge there than conventional wisdom might believe.
In an interview with Cybercast News Service, Mike DeVine, a former state Democratic Party official in South Carolina and a columnist for The Charlotte Observer, noted that the Republican Party there is markedly different from that in Iowa.
“The GOP in South Carolina that I lost to a lot [over 20 years] is [comprised of] mainstream conservatives,” he said. “They’re Reagan conservatives. … This includes evangelicals – they’re mostly Southern Baptists. A lot of military [there] too – much different from Iowa.”
“I don’t think that Huckabee will do nearly as well” in South Carolina as he did in Iowa, said DeVine. “Some of his views are simply anathema to the conservative philosophy of the state. He’s shown some weaknesses. The people aren’t going to just vote for him because he’s a Baptist. They won’t be nearly as receptive to identity politics.”
Peter Beinart, editor of The New Republic magazine, echoed that view in a recent piece, saying, “Historically, the ‘peace churches’ – Quakers, Mennonites, and the Church of the Brethren – have thrived in the state. Few states receive as few defense dollars as Iowa, and few have as great a skepticism toward military force.”
I do want to amend my blog from yesterday, SC may not nullify McCain’s latest NH Pyrrhic victory based on some conversations with GOP contacts in South Carolina. The crowded field, military voters and late arriving Thompson gives McCain the advantage.
In contrast, Jim Geraghty, campaign blogger for the National Review Online, noted, “South Carolina brims with military institutions and traditions.”
“The state is the home of the Citadel, Charleston Air Force Base, U.S. Army Fort Jackson in Columbia, the Marine Corps Air Station in Beaufort … Altogether the state is home to about 38,000 active duty and about 26,000 Reserve and National Guard members. This isn’t counting the state’s numerous military retirees,” Geraghty added.
While McCain has the backing of over 100 retired generals and admirals from the armed services, Thompson has made a strong play for the South Carolina military community by announcing his plan to rebuild America’s military at the Citadel.
Huckabee’s recent article in Foreign Affairs magazine purporting that the Bush administration’s foreign policy was rooted in an “arrogant bunker mentality” has been used by candidates as a line of attack in debates. In that same article, however, Huckabee expressed support for expanding defense spending from 3.9 percent of GDP to 6 percent.
The Iowan evangelical conservatives, according to Geraghty, “have a history of falling hard for the candidate who wears his religion on his sleeve the most” and tend to rally around their own when they are under attack.”
By contrast, “The South Carolina Christian conservative population is not nearly as monolithically united, however, allowing an opportunity for Thompson’s appeal,” Geraghty said.
As to Huckabee,
Huckabee’s rise in the polls, DeVine said, was due to strong debate performances and to coming in at the right time in respect to his opposition.
“Rudy [Giuliani] and John McCain basically didn’t go to Iowa and ask for their votes,” said DeVine. “Mitt Romney was there almost too long. Heck, it’s almost like he’s been there long enough to be president. Then you had Fred coming in late,” De Vine added.
Geraghty added that “populism,” which Huckabee has modeled his campaign on, “has not played a dominant theme in a South Carolina Republican presidential primary in recent memory. If there has been any clear-cut economic theme in South Carolina politics, it has been state’s steady support for low taxes.”
Read it all:
Huckabee, Thompson Face Tough Ground in SC
Conversations with contacts in SC today has sobered my view from last night. I have been mostly out of the state for the past 6 months and it appears that Huckabee has captured the imagination of a not insubstantial portion of the electorate, with McCain being the choice of the establishment. The SC historic desire to pick a winner seems to have helped heal wounds from 2000 when he got 42% of the vote.
I still think my views concerning the electorate in my home state expressed over the past year are sound. They are not bigoted against Mormons (Romney has received many endorsements and his yard signs are not a rare sight). They do not share McCain’s views on many issues, but do respect his military service and war hawk stance. The crowded field gives him the edge.
I suspect many evangelicals are unaware of many of Huckabee’s more moderate to liberal views, but like him because he is unapologetically refusing to succumb to PC silence in discussing God in the public square, and they love his views on the family and life.
Fred’s views are more in line with the State that either Huckabee, McCain or Romney, but he has arrived late.
But the crowded field could also make it possible for Fred to win as well. Were Fred in a two-man race with any of the other contenders, I am confident he would win.
But it’s not. So Fred faces an uphill battle. It is not impossible.
One other factor occurs to me that could explain a possible advantage for Huckabee. The Democratic Party in SC is a shell of its former self. The massive exodus of democrats to the GOP could have moved it a bit further to the left. Its still very conservative, but maybe not as much as in the 80s and 90s when I was losing to them all the time!
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
The HinzSight Report
The Minority Report
Huck is history in the Race 4 2008
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
FRED08
| “I believe in supply-side economics. It’s not just a theory for me – I’ve done it and I’ve seen it work.” “At a time when many Americans are worried about the economy, now is the right time to cut taxes so we can put America back on a pro-growth path towards future prosperity. Fiscal Conservative Republicans remember what Ronald Reagan taught us: when you cut taxes you liberate the potential of the American people…and you unlock the genius of our free market economy.” -Mayor Rudy Giuliani |
As Chief Executive of America’s largest city, Mayor Rudy Giuliani proposed 64 tax cuts and succeeded 23 times – working with a Democratic City Council and a Democratic State Assembly. By the end of his eight years in office, he had reduced New Yorkers’ tax burden by 19% – down to its lowest level in decades. Not only was this the largest tax reduction of any local or state government in the country in the 1990′s, but Mayor Giuliani delivered more tax relief to his constituents than all of the other Republican candidates combined.
Mayor Giuliani believes that our next President must fight for economic policies that lower the tax burden on hard-working people and job-creating businesses while eliminating the wasteful spending in Washington. His tax cut plan – the most aggressive of anyone running for President – will spark the engine of our economy and help America grow our way out of the long-term fiscal challenges we face.
THE F.A.S.T. FORM – MAKING YOUR TAXES FLATTER, FAIRER AND SIMPLER
When the federal income tax was first introduced in 1913, you could file on one page. The federal tax code is now over 9 million words (the Constitution is roughly 5000 words by comparison[1]), and Americans spend nearly 6.5 billion hours each year filling out tax forms, keeping records and learning tax rules, according to the OMB. The costs of complying with federal income taxes is $200 billion each year.[2]
Mayor Giuliani’s plan – the Fair and Simple Tax (FAST) form – will give all American taxpayers the option of filling out their taxes on a single page again. It has three rates – 10-15-30 – cutting the current 6 tax brackets in half. It will offer all Americans the opportunity for a tax cut while preserving the major deductions that people have come to depend upon: mortgage interest, charity, state & local taxes, the child tax credit, the personal exemption and the new Healthcare exclusion. The FAST form would allow people to opt between it and the regular federal tax code every year, depending on which made the most economic sense for them.
How would the FAST form benefit families in Florida?
• A family of four earning $80,000 per year could see their estimated federal income tax burden reduced by $2,207 – or 24%.
• A family of four earning $120,000 per year could see their estimated federal income tax burden reduced by $7,014 – or 36%.
To view a copy of the FAST form please click here: http://www.joinrudy2008.com/pages/taxform
CUT THE CORPORATE TAX TO MAINTAIN OUR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
When businesses thrive, workers thrive – and vice versa. We need to keep America competitive in the global economy. America currently has the second highest corporate tax in the industrialized world. We’re going to cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 25% – below the average of other industrialized nations – helping American businesses compete while protecting and growing American jobs.
GIVE THE DEATH PENALTY TO THE DEATH TAX
A growth economy lifts people out of poverty and helps them achieve the American Dream. But the Estate Tax – sometimes called the Death Tax – amounts to an assault on the American Dream, forcing people to sell family farms or small businesses to pay the tax collector. In 2007, Americans paid an estimated $19 billion in estate taxes.[3] In 2010, the estate tax will fall to zero for one year, but in 2011 the number of families paying the tax will skyrocket by 260%, and Americans will pay over $40 billion in estate taxes.[4] That’s why we need to give the Death Tax the Death Penalty – once and for all.
CUT THE CAPITAL GAINS TAX TO REWARD SUCCESS
Some Democrats seem to want to penalize success. Rudy Giuliani wants America to be a country that rewards success. That’s why we should cut the Capital Gains Tax from 15% to 10% and index capital gains for inflation – spurring private sector investment in a growth economy.
INDEX AND THEN ELIMINATE THE AMT
The AMT is an example of the unintended consequences of Congressional over-reaction. It was created in 1969 to affect 155 wealthy individuals who weren’t paying their fair share. But now it’s threatening to impact 20 million middle-class Americans. That’s why Rudy Giuliani wants to index the AMT for inflation and eventually eliminate it.
REINSTATE THE R&D TAX CREDIT
One of the secrets to America’s historic success is that we’re an engine of innovation – we pioneer new technologies and create new industries. But this Democratic Congress recently allowed the research and development tax credit to expire, choosing higher taxes over a commitment to America’s innovation edge in the global economy. We need to reinstate the Research & Development Tax Credit to help American companies find solutions to the great challenges we face – like achieving energy independence.
ELIMINATE THE DOUBLE-TAXATION OF PERSONAL SAVINGS ACCOUNTS
Americans’ savings rates have been declining. That can lead to a sense of economic insecurity. We can help reverse this trend by eliminating the double taxation of personal savings, creating new tax-free savings accounts. People can use these accounts to buy a home, pay for education or pay for their retirement. It’s a new tool for empowering individuals to achieve financial independence.
EMPOWER AMERICANS TO OWN THEIR HEALTH CARE
Americans agree that we need to make healthcare more affordable and portable. Some politicians feel the best way to achieve that goal is through government mandates or steps toward socialized medicine. Rudy Giuliani believes in a quintessential American approach to solving our problems: empowering people to own their health insurance by providing a tax exclusion – $15,000 for families and $7,500 for individuals – improving the access to and quality of care while decreasing costs.
MAKE THE BUSH TAX CUTS PERMANENT
The next President needs to take action to stop Democrats from imposing an unprecedented $3 trillion tax hike on the American people. They want to allow the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts to expire. That’s the worst thing Washington could do – instead of tax hikes, Rudy Giuliani believes we should be enacting new tax cuts that lead to new opportunities.
Mark Steyn’s got some great analysis here:
Looking at the winners and losers on the Republican side, I don’t see a lot of the former coming out of New Hampshire:
Romney lost, because he came second, which is starting to look like a pattern;
McCain lost, because his margin over Romney is, as noted below, underwhelming enough to get his comeback written off as little more than a local phenomenon;
Huckabee lost, because a distant third with no evidence of an Iowa bounce makes his caucus victory seem ancient history;
Giuliani lost, because he barely beat Ron Paul;
Paul lost, because he couldn’t even beat Giuliani;
Thompson lost, because he’s a big-time Hollywood guy with a hot primetime TV show and, even if he were totally incompetent, that ought to be worth more than one per cent.
Oh, well. On to Michigan, which is sure to have its own novel ways of damaging the “front”runners.
Maybe it’s time to get behind Alan Keyes.
Heh.
From Fox News:
Rudy Giuliani is set to unveil a new tax plan Wednesday afternoon that the campaign is touting as the “largest tax cut in the history of America”…
Giuliani plans to deliver his tax plan announcement in Melbourne, Fla.
Details of the plan are still emerging, but the campaign says it will include a $3,500-per-person deduction, and deductions for health care, home mortgage payments, charity contributions, and local and state taxes, as well as a $1,000-per-child tax credit.
Then a 10 percent tax would be assessed on the first $40,000 earned, 15 percent on $40,000 to $150,000 earned and 30 percent on $150,000 earned and above.
It also would include a one-page “fast form” that is supposed to simplify the tax process.
The campaign said Giuliani will be joined by Steve Forbes and released a statement saying: “Considering the Democratic candidates for President haven’t been shy about their commitment to raise taxes, the American people can’t afford not to have Mayor Giuliani in the White House. Bottom line – there is no other candidate, Republican or Democrat, for President that has a better record of cutting taxes and has a better plan for putting more money back into the hands of the American people.”
The media love to second-guess the Giuliani campaign’s decision to essentially bypass the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. The campaign publicly announced that its effort in Iowa was less about winning the caucuses, and more about building a base for the general election. And while Giuliani’s presence was greater in the Granite State, a tactical decision was made that New Hampshire’s few delegates weren’t worth the necessity of going up dollar-for-dollar against Mitt Romney, or trying to build the kind of base of support that John McCain had inherited from his 2000 campaign.
So, now with the first two states out of the way, attention will turn to the more delegate-rich primary states of Michigan, Florida, and the large states of Super Duper Tuesday…(and, of course, South Carolina, where the primary promises to be more of a convoluted blood bath between some candidates, while Rudy keeps his eye on January 29 and the Florida primary).
The biggest problem with Giuliani staying above the fray in the scramble for Iowa and New Hampshire was that media attention had been concentrated on those two states since early December, and Rudy just wasn’t around, playing to the media’s schedule. While Mike Huckabee was claiming God’s providential hand of blessing on his campaign in Iowa, Rudy was continuing to work on the latter state of Florida. Some of his loss of position in the national polls is undoubtedly due to this.
Will Rudy’s strategy work? It remains to be seen. Pollster Scott Rasmussen the other day compared the late-state strategy to a football coach deciding to go on fourth-and-one on the opponent’s one yard line, rather than kick a field goal. If it works, the coach is a genius. If it doesn’t, he’s an idiot.
The important point is this: all the naysayers who have concluded that Rudy’s campaign is dead are off-base. So far, with two states down, there is no clear frontrunner, and the national polls show all candidates statistically bunched up. The RealClearPolitics polling average on Tuesday had Rudy in third, but only 3.3% behind Huckabee, the current leader. Essentially a dead heat. For Rudy’s “go on fourth-and-one” strategy to work, the race has to be fluid heading into the Florida primary, and then on to Super Duper Tuesday. That fluid condition exists. So, that aspect of the Giuliani strategy has worked perfectly.
As the primaries move closer to states favoring Rudy, expect his campaign to turn up the volume of its message, and especially to refocus its emphasis on Rudy’s conservative positions on key issues. One of the most annoying and ignorant claims of this election cycle has been that Rudy doesn’t represent the conservative views of the Republican Party, that he’s too liberal for the party. That might be true if conservatism has been reduced to the mindless monosyllabic mantra of “God! Gays! Guns!”, as appears to be the case in some quarters of the conservative community on the Internet. If “God! Gays! Guns!” is all conservatism stands for in 2008, then Rudy is too liberal for the Republican Party. In fact, most Republicans are probably too liberal for the Republican Party if that characterization of conservatism is true, and we should all brace for a massive wipe-out in November. If conservatism in 2008 is the mind-numbingly simplistic “God! Gays! Guns!” mantra, conservatism is dead as an American political ideology. To some extent, the “God! Gays! Guns!” cartoon version of conservatism has some adherents, in which case, conservatism in American needs a shot of revitalization.
Conservatism can be revitalized, but there needs to be a different approach and new leaders to do it. Rebuilding the foundation, Rudy Giuliani’s call to craft policies and an approach to governance that expand liberty is a good place to start. The unfolding of Rudy’s positions over 2007 showed him to be the most thoughtful and accomplished conservative candidate in the race. Those who project a caricature of conservatism, reducing it to a mindless mono-syllabic mantra, are incapable of seeing Rudy’s conservatism.
Nevertheless, to refocus his campaign on the conservative governance principles that it’s based on, expect to see Rudy all over the Florida media the next three weeks. Expect, also, to see his more high-profile conservative advisors – folks like Steve Forbes, Bill Simon, Ted Olson – to hit the cable news circuit.
In regard to traditional values, social conservatives have ample reason to support Rudy. Consider:
As mayor, Giuliani fought on the front lines of the culture wars and won: he cleaned up Times Square, driving out prostitutes and pornography, making it safe for families.
He pioneered initiatives that increased adoptions by 133%, while the number of abortions in New York City fell faster than the national average.
Giuliani fought to stop the use of public funds for the desecration of religious symbols and values.
He worked with faith-based organizations citywide to strengthen communities, neighborhoods and families.
Mayor Giuliani restored the social contract by enacting the largest and most successful welfare to work program in the nation – moving 640,000 New Yorkers from dependence to the dignity of self-sufficiency.
Rudy will appoint strict constructionist judges who won’t legislate from the bench.
Rudy believes that marriage is between a man and a woman, and he supports the Defense of Marriage Act.
He supports parental notification and the ban on partial birth abortion.
Rudy will direct the Office of Faith-based Initiatives to find new ways to support organizations that promote adoption as an alternative to abortion.
Rudy has pledged to make the $10,000 adoption tax credit permanent.
He will work to strengthen home school programs, and other alternatives to expand parents’ choice in the education of their children.
Rudy has pledged to veto any attempt to weaken the Hyde Amendment and other limits on the public funding of abortions, like the Mexico City Policy.
Also, as the primaries move into Rudy Territory, expect the campaign to sharpen the focus on his key conservative endorsements, such as:
“It is the greatness of the United States that daunting challenges inevitably summon to the fore leaders with the steel to rise to the occasion and the grasp to raise us up with them. Leaders whose confidence and command cut through the noise and the naysayers. Leaders who stir us not only to the urgency of action but to the achievability of victory through America’s exceptional gifts. “Rudy Giuliani is such a leader. In our perilous times, his is the unique combination of vision, guts, and perseverance that we need in the Oval Office. That’s why I hope we have the good sense to make him the next president of the United States.” — Andrew McCarthy (“Giuliani for President: Leadership Inspires Early Endorsement;” National Review Online)
“Christian conservatives make up the core of the school-choice movement in the state. If they come to the conclusion that Mr. Giuliani is on their side and has the leadership qualities to achieve lasting and meaningful change, he may prove a surprisingly strong contender.” — Brendan Miniter (“Culture Warrior: Don’t write-off Giuliani’s appeal to social conservatives;” OPINION JOURNAL, Feb. 13, 2007)
“On every major issue, [Giuliani] is a solidly conservative and extraordinarily adept executive…” — Michael Reagan (“The GOP Should Dump It’s Litmus Test,” FRONTPAGE MAGAZINE, Feb. 16, 2007)
“I’ve known (Rudy Giuliani) for 26 years and we’ve talked about this many times,” Olson said. “He feels very strongly that people like Justice Scalia, Chief Justice Roberts, Sam Alito, Clarence Thomas, are the type of people that he would put on the court…I’m quite convinced that this is a genuine viewpoint that he has.” – Ted Olson, Solicitor General of the United States
“I’ve voted against Rudy Giuliani, and I’ve voted for him. Voting for him is better; it’s what I hope conservatives, Republicans and Americans will do in 2008.” — Richard Brookheiser (“Why Rudy’s Right: What Makes Giuliani the Best Choice for America in ’08,” NEW YORK POST, Dec. 10, 2006)
“…When you talk about issues related to fiscal conservatism, which are important to Rudy, I don’t know anybody in the public arena who has cut taxes 23 times as Rudy did when he was mayor of New York; who has shrunk the size of government, which he did when he was mayor of New York; reduced the welfare rolls by over 50 percent, which he did when he was mayor of New York. And that’s not going into reducing crime by 65% and many other things that he did while mayor in a situation that, before he became mayor, was widely regarded as the second toughest job in American politics, and was widely regarded as an ungovernable situation.” — Bill Simon, GOP candidate for California governor in 2002.
“By the time Giuliani challenged Dinkins for a second time, in 1993 (his first try had failed), the former prosecutor had fashioned a philosophy of local government based on two core conservative principles vastly at odds with New York’s political culture: that government should be accountable for delivering basic services well, and that ordinary citizens should be personally responsible for their actions and their destiny and not expect government to take care of them.” — Steven Malanga (“Yes, Rudy Giuliani is a Conservative,” CITY JOURNAL http://city-journal.org/html/17_1_rudy_giuliani.html )
“[Giuliani] is positively Reaganite on taxes, spending, public order, quality of life, welfare reform, school choice, racial preferences, privatization, shrinking bureaucracy, Americanization of immigrants, fatherhood, moving foster kids into adoptive families, pulverizing Islamo-fascism, and maintaining peace through strength.” – DeRoy Murdock, (“Mean Mr. Giuliani’ Would Bring Toughness to Washington,” HUMAN EVENTS http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=19495 )
“Rudy Giuliani is the conservative in the race.” — Former Cong. Jim Nussle, pro-life fiscal conservative and one of the architects of the 1994 Republican Revolution
“I am volunteering to join Rudy’s team because, in a talented field of qualified candidates, Rudy Giuliani stands out for his rare blend of intelligence, highly successful experience, leadership and vision. His eight years as Mayor of New York have rightly been judged ‘the most successful episode of conservative governance in this country in the last fifty years’. He trimmed bureaucracy, controlled spending, repeatedly cut taxes, and radically reduced crime and welfare rolls. Not surprisingly, New York, which had been in a downward spiral of rampant crime and fiscal chaos, experienced a renaissance.” – Economist Michael Boskin, the Hoover Institution.
“SayNoToRudy.Org’s online retreat also impresses. As the Ohio-based website’s self-described, social-conservative organizers stated November 5: ‘We sought to do everything legally possible to prevent [Giuliani] from becoming the Republican presidential nominee. Unexpectedly, as we began to see more and more of who Mr. Giuliani really is, we found that Mr. Giuliani is truly a committed Republican and an accomplished conservative on many issues. Therefore, the creators of this organization, with much humility and apology, beyond all probability, hereby announce that we are willing to endorse Mr. Giuliani for the Presidency in 2008.’”-http://race42008.com/2006/12/26/right-rudy
In short, Rudy is still the most accomplished conservative in the race. This will be the focus over the next three weeks leading up to Florida, and there is plenty of evidence to drive that point home as the delegate-rich states come up to bat in the primary season.
Mexicans fear Huckabee
By Jeremy Schwartz | Monday, January 7, 2008, 10:58 AM
A week ago, most Mexicans had never heard of Mike Huckabee. After the former Baptist minister’s victory in Iowa, many here now view Huckabee as a danger. Huckabee is generally seen as the most conservative of the Republican candidates and as such, the toughest on immigration (Mitt Romney might have something to say about that characterization).Here’s how this morning’s Reforma newspaper analyzed Huckabee’s victory:”The triumph of Mike Huckabee in the Iowa caucus is not good news for Mexico. It happens that the ex-governor of Arkansas … is winning supporters in great part through his plan to seal the border with Mexico with a wall and more Border Patrol. He also has the support of such “wonderful” people as James Gilchrist, founder of the anti-immigrant Minuteman movement and the actor Chuck Norris, who played the role of a violent Texas Ranger.”
In the Milenio newspaper, columnist Diego Petersen Farah writes, “Huckabee’s position on immigration is absolutely radical…Without a doubt, for Mexico and Latin America in general, Barack Obama would be a much more empathetic president, although not free of problems.”
He wrote this piece a little earlier about the wider view of the GOP candidates:
McCain gets love south of the border
By Jeremy Schwartz | Monday, January 7, 2008, 09:54 AM
Republican has almost become a four letter word here in Mexico, which largely sees the GOP as xenophobic and rabidly anti-immigrant. Republican candidates are seen as stepping all over themselves in an attempt to flash their tough on immigration credentials. The great Republican hope though is Sen. John McCain, who defied his party last year by co-sponsoring a broad immigration reform bill.Analysts here are putting a lot of stock in McCain’s performance tomorrow night in the New Hampshire primary. Ricardo Raphael, a columnist for the El Universal newspaper, writes today that a McCain win would show that “the xenophobia in our neighboring country has lost a fundamental battle …On the other hand, if Romney or Giuliani recover their political vigor and manage to get past McCain or Huckabee (the winner of the Iowa primaries), the anti-immigration flag will continue to fly and the very soon it will be the Democratic candidates…that will have to define themselves before the issue.”
It seems that McCain is feared the least out of all the current candidates – This has some interesting ramifications going into the big show – McCain is trying to build himself up into the GOP hopeful, but with such a huge percentage opposing compassion of any kind to illegal immigrants, this could stop him dead in his tracks.
KWN: I thought we could start off by talking about your reactions to the results of the Iowa Caucuses.
Michael DuHaime: Well, we would like to extend our congratulations to Gov. Huckabee. It was a very good win for him. He withstood an awful lot of negative campaigning. This was a very solid win for him. So first of all, we certainly congratulate him and his team
Secondly, we have always taken a long-term approach to this process. We take an approach that looks at the number of delegates at stake. We have never had a nominating process with so many states, large and small, involved in the nominating process. Our strategy has always been that we are going to get the most delegates, understanding that you can’t play in every single state and that the cost would be too great. Absent the ability to self-fund, the cost is too great for any of the candidates. You keep every race in perspective. We haven’t built our campaign around winning any one single state. So we looked at Iowa, knowing that there are not delegates at stake in Iowa at this point. we decided to look further down the road to look where we can pick up delegates. So many of the states that moved up, whether it be Florida or some of the February 5th states that have large delegate quantities like California, like Illinois, and obviously New York and New Jersey, that are winner-take-all states. Or other states Other like Georgia, Missouri, we have had a long-term approach to that.
We are trying to keep the results of any individual race in perspective. I know that the media is going to pay huge amount of attention on the early states, as they deserve to be. But we have looked at this from a long-term approach and we will continue to do that as we go forward. There have already been more absentee ballots requested by Republicans in Florida than there were voters in the Iowa caucuses. So I think we need to keep in perspective, that-how many voters there were. I mean there 114,000 voters less than what you would get in a normal Congressional election. I think Karl Rove had some interesting comments yesterday about the size of the electorate. Eight out of ten Republicans, or more than that, did not vote in the Iowa Causes. So keep the results in perspective.
KWN: What are your expectations for New Hampshire on Tuesday?
Michael DuHaime: It’s going to be interesting to watch between Gov. Romney and Sen. McCain. Gov. Romney predicated his campaign on winning the first two states. Obviously he has already hit a bump in Iowa, and is locked in a tight race here.
We have always had a very good perspective on New Hampshire. Look, Gov. Romney was the Governor of a neighboring state. Eighty-five percent of the residents of New Hampshire live in the Boston television market, so they saw his four years as Governor. He has spent millions upon millions of dollars here. Similar to Iowa, he has been outspending everyone dramatically. He has a vacation home in the state. So he came into here with some real institutional advantages that we were aware of.
Obviously, Sen. McCain came in here with a tremendous amount of goodwill from 2000, he won the state by almost 20 points in 2000. So we have always had a perspective and understanding that there are two very, very strong candidates in New Hampshire. We’ve felt that there was an opportunity to do well here. But again, we look at this from a long-term approach and looking at the number of delegates at stake here and in other states and tried to keep all the efforts proportional and in perspective.
KWN: Some critics in the MSM and the Blogosphere are skeptical that Mayor Giuliani will be able to win Florida if he does not win a primary or caucus up until that point. How confident are you that he will win Florida?
Michael DuHaime: We have taken a lot of criticism for having a bit of an unconventional approach. But The Mayor has never listened to conventional wisdom. Conventional wisdom a year ago said that he would not even be a serious candidate past the spring or summer. They said that he would never be able to last in the race. Not only did he last but he lead in the race and is certainly one of the top-tier candidates here as we go forward. If he had listened to conventional wisdom, he probably wouldn’t have ran for Mayor of New York, right? Five-to-one Democrat, how could a Republican win? He probably would have never said, I can cut crime in New York. He would never had been able to reduce the welfare rolls as he did because the conventional wisdom and the pundits said he couldn’t do it. But he has never listened to that. He has always said that we have to do what we believe is right, and we are going to stick to that.
That is what we are doing with this plan as well. There are a lot of folks who say you have to do it this way. Well, Rudy has never said that. Rudy has never said that you have to live by the old rules.
We’ll see. Let’s give it some time. We will see where we all stand a month from now. We have never had so many states-there are 21 states on February 5th. We have never had a primary election like that before. It’s so accelerated. Strategies change necessarily by changing circumstances.
Not only that, you have five double-digits candidates in the race. In some states you have six double-digit candidates. Nobody has ever been in a race with that many serious candidates. Nobody has ever been in a race with this many states in such a short period of time time.
So we are comfortable with our strategy. We think its very good. I am very confident about Florida. First, Rudy has a base in Florida that is better than anyone else’s. He is very familiar with Florida going all the way back to his days in the Reagan Justice Department. We have a great operation down there. Great endorsements and a great field team. Great grassroots volunteers. We have a base of support that is very familiar with The Mayor from folks that have moved down to Florida in recent years that are familiar with The Mayor’s record.
That doesn’t mean it won’t be a very tight and close race throughout-that is understood.
KWN: But hasn’t there been too little discussion of the other coalitions he has been able to build within the state? Hizzoner is extremely popular among the Florida Cuban and Puerto Rican Communities…
Michael DuHaime: Undoubtedly. The Mayor has spent a lot of time in Florida this year. He is not just another candidate that has spent a lot of time in Iowa and New Hampshire. We spent a lot of time in Florida, in California, Illinois, and other states that many others have ignored. You are right, we have very, very strong support in the Cuban Community, and really up-and-down the state he has very good support. I feel good about that. He does have many different types of coalitions than the other candidates, and that has come from a lot of very hard work.
Beyond the hard work, it came from many years of service all the way back in the Reagan Justice Department and as U.S. Attorney in New York. People in Florida are well aware of the good work that he has done and the knowledge that he brings to issues. Both national and Florida-specific issues where he has gained perspective and knowledge.
KWN: It appears that Barack Obama may now have the inside track to the Democratic nomination. How do you see Mayor Giuliani matching up with Senator Obama. How would guess such a race would shake out?
Michael DuHaime: I think he has clearly struck a chord with Independent voters and did well in Iowa. It remains to be seen. I don’t want to prejudge the Democratic contest. I have a hard enough time handicapping our own contest (laughs). I think the important thing here, is that Rudy is the best candidate to take on -whether it be Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama- whoever is able to pull off the nomination. I think Rudy is the best candidate to take either one of them on. There is a very large ideological difference between Rudy and Barack Obama.
Barack Obama wants change, but remember change for the worse is not that good. Not all change is good. The change he wants calls for higher taxes. Obviously going backwards and [going] on defense on Terrorism. That [tendency] towards weakness is not good change. I give him that-it’s change. But I think Rudy go for the type of change that people want; and that is staying on offense in the terrorists war on us, having a very tough and strong foreign policy, peace through overwhelming strength. And domestically, not only Barack Obama, but any of the Democrats, they really want to raise taxes by an awful lot. The put it in the code of withdrawing the Bush Tax Cuts. But most people understand that that is an enormous tax increase. The want to vote for greater, more centralized government, where Rudy has called for much more choice in everything from education to health care. There are coming to be stark ideological differences between Rudy and Sen. Obama.
I also think, that from an electoral college point of view, Rudy is the only one who can take advantage of that match-up, because I think you have a real significant advantage for Rudy in states like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut. States that are in Rudy’s geographic base that are traditionally Democrat-leaning states that Rudy could take because they are folks that are real familiar with Rudy’s record of leadership there. So I do think that we would get an advantage we would get in that match-up that would be very beneficial to the Republican Party.
KWN: You are one of the youngest people in American History to manage a presidential campaign. Does that distinction add in any pressure you may have already felt?
Michael DuHaime: I don’t think so. I don’t feel any more pressure. I feel pressure because I know that Rudy is the best candidate to win, and I know that this is a great opportunity for me to have a say in the future of our country. Folks that get involved as political operatives in both parties have a real sense of idealism. Most of us, I think, have a real sense of idealism in terms of what we do helps our country. We may not agree with each other. We may pick different candidates. But we do this, I hope, for the right reasons. I got involved with this campaign is because I know that Rudy would be a great President. So the pressure that I get-the pressure I put on myself- is knowing that I want to do my best to make that happen. I don’t want to fall short because I would feel that I would not only be letting Rudy down, but in many ways I would be letting the country down because our country deserves a leader like him.
KWN: Do you feel that, being a younger person yourself, you have a unique ability to craft a message that could reach out to younger voters that other campaign managers do not?
Michael DuHaime: I hope so. I feel in many ways we have taken a bit of an unconventional approach here. Maybe my relative youth makes me more open to that. Maybe more open to saying that you do not always have to do things the way that they were done 20, 30, 40 years ago. You are more open to change. So I hope that indicates that I do probably have a perspective on 18-29 year-0lds, or folks in their thirties, or folks with young families, I hope that from personal experience I have a good perspective on them.
More importantly, I think that Rudy, more than any other Republican, really attracts young voters . I have seen it first hand, types of crowds he attracts at colleges when he speaks. A lot of young people in their 20′s obviously remember very well September 11th and his performance thereafter. It is one of those memories that all of us have, But I suppose if you are younger that its one of your first memories of a terrible thing happening. Seeing someone that has both the toughness and the compassion to unite the country and express our grief and also help us to move on and move forward. That kind of leadership-young people really respond to that. I think they have seen it in Rudy.
There has been a lot of talk on both sides of the aisle about who could be a leader, who could unite the country, and it’s all speculation as to whether someone could with one exception-and that is Rudy. Rudy is the only person that has already united this country in a great time of crisis. People have already seen him. Not only young people, but I think especially the young people, have seen his leadership firsthand. It wasn’t a campaign… It wasn’t rhetoric… It wasn’t a TV commercial… It was real-and I think young people really respect that.
Mike Huckabee what laws he wants passed, if any, to punish Wall Street and/or help lower and middle income families and small business? And if he doesn’t want to pass any laws to punish Wall Street, why is it necessary to demonize them? Can’t you be for laws to help people without demonizing others?
John McCain that since he wants to close Gitmo, bring all the illegal enemy combatants to the US and give them lawyers to petition for their release and file civil lawsuits against the US government, if he would also afford the same privilege to a captured Osama bin Laden? And if not, why not? Does he think Khalid Sheik Mohammad should be afforded access to US courts instead of facing a military tribunal?
Mitt Romney why he didn’t issue one pardon in all his years as governor?
Rudy Giuliani if he thinks the Kelo decision was wrongly decided, and if he does, then why can’t he tell us if he thinks Roe and Casey were wrongly decided?
Fred Thompson if he would seek to repeal McCain-Feingold?
Hillary Clinton if she regrets her votes to cut off funding to our troops in the field in Afghanistan and Iraq?
Barack Obama if the “change” he seeks would include repealing the law banning partial birth abortion?
Are their any competent journalists out there that can ask questions, the answers to which would actually inform the voters?
All we get are vague questions about style that tells us nothing. Yes, Huckabee wants us to know that he cares about lower income families, but what does he want to DO about it.
Could someone in the MSM find out if the change he wants in the GOP is all rhetoric or if he wants to pass some new laws?
Is there any room for substance in this campaign?
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
The HinzSight Report
The Minority Report
Huck is history in the Race 4 2008
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
FRED08
Tempers have flared a bit around here lately. This story may be part of the reason why:
As he stumped in Hialeah, Rudy Giuliani got a taste of some tough campaigning when rival Mitt Romney’s campaign telephone select South Florida Republicans to inform them of the former New York mayor’s distant ties to Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez.
Giuliani’s law firm, Bracewell & Giuliani has lobbied on behalf of Texas-based Citgo Petroleum, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Venezuelan oil company controlled by Chavez’s government. Giuliani’s camp decried the calls as misleading and dirty politics, saying Giuliani had no role in the Citgo contract, which preceded his work at the firm and has since been terminated.
Romney’s spokeswoman, Kristy Campbell, said the campaign wouldn’t discuss its media strategy, but noted Romney will “contrast” his record with his opponents’ and that he will “vigorously campaign in South Florida and the entire Sunshine State.”
So Giuliani should start bracing for calls, mailers or even ads about his consulting company’s ties to the emirate of Qatar (a U.S. ally that has had a mixed terror-fighting record) or his work for Perdue Pharma to lobby for it during an inquiry into OxyContin.
Giuliani backers are ready.
“As he continues to prove, Mitt Romney is willing to say or do anything, even if his facts are wrong, in order to get elected. This is another desperate attempt by the Romney campaign to gain traction in Florida,” Hialeah Mayor Julio Robaina, the campaign’s Florida co-chair, said in a statement issued by the campaign.
There is no doubt that the Romney campaign will not be alone when it comes to this sort of tactic. Real bullets are flying now folks, and the votes count.
I finally made it home from Iowa yesterday.
It was quite fun, until Romney lost, which really sucked. Like really sucked.
Being embedded was quite the thrill, for an amateur like myself. I went into it thinking the MSM reporters would all be jerks, but really they were all pretty cool, including Anna Marie Cox and the Reuters Reporter who I missed the press bus with at the first caucus I attended.
Iowa is an interesting state, and the caucuses are a tricky business. I am guessing that at the caucus I attended they expected maybe a couple hundred, judging by the tables and chairs they had set out. By the time I left there had to be 500 in the caucus room, maybe a hundred or two more waiting to get in, and scores leaving without ever having voted, fed up with the process. It was a zoo.
I thought Romney would win up until half way through my interview with Bob Bennett where his comments seemed to heavily suggest that he was expecting a second place finish. I am not sure weather he was receiving briefings, or not, but within 20 minutes of this interview the AP was reporting that entrance polls were showing Huckabee would run away with it.
Why a Huckabee Win
What happened in Iowa was a result of the cross. Not the cross that Jesus died on, but the cross that Drudge found in a campaign video. I think that Huck’s win can be attributed to his charisma, anti-Mormon sermons and emails, pastors telling them to vote for God, and the most from Drudge and his cross story. Really, it was a bad idea on Drudge’s part. In case he forgot, Christians like the cross. Huck’s army got their marching orders from Drudge.
The polling suggests this to be the case. If you subtract the abnormal 20% increase in Evangelicals (as show in entrance polls) from Huck’s numbers, the caucus would have resulted with Romney over Huckabee 31% to 13%. At the caucus I attended I spoke to a very positive Thompson worker. I asked him about Huckabee. He was Evangelical and he stated that nearly everyone at his church was voting for Huckabee. He almost did as well. If Huckabee was fueled by groups other than Evangelicals, then I think we would have seen his support more on the order of 40-50%. As a matter of fact, I don’t think I met a single reporter, activist or voter from any campaign who didn’t attribute Hucks’s strong showing to Evangelicals.
Romney and the Future
Romney has a couple options. Some more alluring then others. But he is injured. Romney needs to win NH or come in 2nd within a 5-7% margin to stay viable.
The polls seem to show Romney and McCain tied. Depending on the poll, either one of them could be found in first place. McCain has surged, and Romney has stayed at a core level of support. I am optimistic for a New Hampshire win for several reasons:
Should Romney win New Hampshire he would in fact win Michigan and Nevada and perhaps get a decent showing in South Carolina.
Now if Romney looses New Hampshire, but can stay within 5-7% of first place, he also has a reasonable chance, albeit, not so rosy. It would basically hinge on him keeping a strong delegate lead and hoping for a brokered convention. If Romney can win Wyoming, he will have the delegate lead. If he can get some of the delegates in New Hampshire he could still have enough legitimacy to fight in Michigan and perhaps win their or Nevada. At that point Romney would still have a strong organization in Florida. This plan should sound good for Rudy people, since it flies in the face of momentum.
Going into Feb 5th Romney would still have plenty of money and a strong organization and plenty of money for states like California, Arizona, Colorado, Illinois and others where he could continue to build delegates. From here he could still win.
Lastly if Romney suffers a George Bush blowout in New Hampshire, I think it’s tough argument to say it’s winnable, although at this point, I would say anything is possible.
Thompson must, should and is, according to this report from Human Events, continuing his quest for the White House after Iowa, especially in South Carolina, i.e. the state that picks winners:
Sources told me that Thompson’s campaign was already moving elements to South Carolina where they expect to do very well. If Thompson finished at the bottom of the pack in Iowa — which seems very unlikely — he would have to reassess his overall chances. But that seems unlikely. And Iowa is not a determinative race for the Republicans. It is very likely to be of lesser importance than a host of others, as John McCain, Rudy Giuliani — and Thompson — are betting. A candidate could easily go from a defeat there to win the nomination.
This refutes the dirty trick lie “broken” by The Politico last night that Fred Thompson was poised to drop out and endorse John McCain in a few days after Iowa (see details further down into this story).
South Carolina has a strange habit of correcting mistakes made in Iowa and/or New Hampshire and ALWAYS picking the GOP nominee and usually picking American presidents since 1980.
Huckabee is outside the conservative mainstream which SC republicans represent, especially including Southern Baptists and other evangelicals. SC is a state that is much more of a military oriented state as well, which does give John McCain an opening after a NH victory. But McCain came here in 2000 after a victory and lost due to mainly to his anti-tax cut policies and statements insulting Christians, against ONE establishment rival.
This time he could arrive against a group of candidates that could split anti-McCain vote. Thus, Fred will need to establish himself as THE conservative alternative to McCain.
One advantage he will have is that he and McCain are friends and so will not face negative ads from McCain. Moreover, he can probably count on Romney and 527′s to run many deserved negative ads against McCain. Finally, given Fred’s sterling consistent (though not perfect) conservative record, it is doubtful negative ads (if any, run against him, which is doubtful) would be able to hurt him.
I would be surprised if Fred does not get some pretty powerful endorsements in the weeks after NH and before SC.
Fred can be the candidate that the Reagan/conservative coalition rallies around to stop the more liberal alternatives in Huckabee and McCain, and, to a lesser extent, Romney and Giuliani, because Fred’s federalism frightens fewer conservatives.
He will also have overcome a despicable dirty trick from The Politico that Jed Babbin refutes:
The rumor that Fred Thompson will quit the Republican presidential race if he finishes poorly in Iowa is not only false: it rises to the level of a political dirty trick aimed at reducing Thompson-backers’ turnout in tonight’s Iowa caucuses.
The story, which began as a rumor and caught fire as a result of a piece in today’s Politico, said that Thompson was likely to quit after Iowa if he did poorly there, and might endorse Sen. John McCain before next week’s New Hampshire primary. The article painted a glum, almost resigned mood among Thompson’s inner circle.
Thompson and his top campaign advisor Rich Galen both denied the story’s claims today.
Which raises a number of questions about The Politico’s coverage. The story, written by Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen, is apparently the result of a dirty trick by a competing campaign. The story is a very odd one. It cobbles together two unnamed sources: one a “Thompson advisor” and one a “campaign source” with Thompson’s own statement that he needed to finish second in Iowa. But Thompson’s statement — like many others from him lately — was a positive, energetic note on the Iowa race.
According to one report, Thompson’s top campaign advisor Rich Galen said, “I’m a Republican official in the Thompson campaign, and I’m denying it.” Galen is also reported to have said that no one inside the campaign was a source for the story. “I can’t put enough adjectives in front of the ‘deny’ to accurately describe how vehemently I’m denying the story.” That, and other statements by Thompson himself today, leaves the Politico’s story out in the cold.
So how does a story like the Politico’s get out? Why did Politico’s skilled editors and reporters fall for that, and choose to put it out on the day turnout is the key to every campaign?
In every political season, there are dirty tricks like this. Some originate from opposing camps and some from the media themselves. The Politico story is of the sort that even the television networks have managed to avoid. Saying that Thompson is going to quit after Iowa on the morning of the caucuses there is like announcing the election night results in New York and the Carolinas before the polls close on the West Coast. If even CBS News wouldn’t pull a stunt like that, why would The Politico?
Fred can win. Iowa and NH only pick the GOP nominee half the time. SC always does.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
The HinzSight Report
The Minority Report
Huck is history in the Race 4 2008
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
FRED08
Jonathan Martin got it wrong again yesterday when he implied that Rush ruled out Rudy Giuliani. I’ve listened to Rush throughout the campaign, and yesterday he did not swipe at Rudy, like Martin seemed to indicate. Rush likes Rudy, as well as Thompson and Romney. He just reaffirmed that a few minutes ago.
Just a reminder that hardly anybody pays as close of attention to the race as us political junkies… and of the power of the early states in primary campaigns.
Gallup has released a poll showing that 61% of Republicans said that if Giuliani loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, his campaign would be “in serious trouble.”
As ridiculous as that sounds to us, who know that Rudy has retreated from both states, remember that the average American doesn’t know half of what we do about the race.
Rush implicitly endorsed Romney and Thompson on his show this afternoon (who happen to also be my top two legitimate choices in this race) by saying this about the other three front-runners:
Limbaugh seemed to swipe at McCain, Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani, respectively, in responding to a caller about which candidate had true conservative bona fides.
“If our nominee is either not conservative and is pandering to the left trying to get some of their votes, or if our nominee is so afraid of his record that he’s relying on identity politics to get votes or if our nominee decides that the only way he can win is to go out and pick off some libs in the northeast and out in the west, it’s going to be a bloodbath,” he predicted of the general election.
Rush spent most of the program bashing Huckabee, like most conservative pundits have taken to doing. He then attacked McCain on immigration, tax cuts, interrogation, and CFR before responding to a caller with the above quote.
Now the question becomes: were the folks in Iowa and New Hampshire listening?
We’re just 3 days away from the Iowa caucus, and something odd has happened; the two candidates with the most traction are the “next in line” guy (McCain) and the candidate who’s focused heavily on the early states (Romney); in other words, precisely the candidates we’d of expected to triumph, before the “this is a different sort of election” drum-beat began.
Indeed, I’m still struck by the absolutely foundational significance of Iowa; the two original front-runners decided to ignore the state, to render it meaningless. The superstar actor did the same until less then a month ago. Three front-runners, three guys who at various points had the clearest paths to the nomination, tried to kill Iowa in it’s grave. And ironically, it seems like the entire race could pivot on the outcome. Romney wins there, he probably hangs on in NH, and likely runs the table. I think this underscores the central lesson of the primary season; you don’t bet against tradition.
When a pivotal segment of the party says a twice-divorced pro-choicer is unacceptable, take them seriously; they’ll find a way to make themselves relevant, often in very unpleasant ways. When someone claims to have invented a new mode of campaigning, and pointedly refuses to participate in the “dog and pony” show, take their claim for what it most assuredly is; a sure sign of either delusion or a fundamental mis-understanding about what it is that drives elections. When a candidate’s staffer pronounces the death of a venerable coalition, and when the candidate himself tries to remake the party using seeds from the opposition’s garden, treat them with due skepticism.
This is a race, but it’s not a sprint and over the long haul, durable methods usually win out. For all of the sensitive and powerful topics that politics touches; life and death, right and wrong, freedom and captivity (all wrapped up in a complex package of issues) politics is generally governed by rules, not by emotion. And even emotion has an underlying structure, that tends to repeat itself.
Charismatic politicians can inspire emotional reactions in others. But, charismatic politicians are uniquely vulnerable to charges that they’re not serious, and that they’re dishonestly “slick” in some way. There are patterns here, and the politician who refuses to take the well-worn lessons of history and tradition as instructive, and sometimes definitive, will come to heart-ache.
This race might have turned out differently, and it’s hardly over even now. Rudy Giuliani’s managed chaos might materialize, thrusting him to a winning position. The populist from Hope could take a shoe-string budget, and stretch it well beyond Iowa, with a carefully choreographed campaign narrative, and an energized grassroots network. These outcomes are neither impossible, nor even improbable. But, I think it’s notable that, despite all the surface differences in the 08′ race, many of the core ideas that have animated GOP primaries and politics generally for decades, remain in place.
Real life commitments have kept me from writing as often as I would like to lately. However, with the bullets starting to fly on Thursday, I just cannot resist taking a break from my domestic responsibilities (there is about 5″ of snow in my driveway that needs shoveling right now) to write on how I see things standing at this time.
First off, I have to admit that I believe anything can happen in this race. We have experienced so many unforeseen twists and turns to this point that any outcome short of Duncan Hunter winning the nomination should not come as a surprise to any of us.
That is why I think of the race in terms of scenarios at this point. The most likely of which I have outlined below.
Scenario One – Rudy Wins
Or perhaps a better title would be “Chaos Theory”. This is the scenario that Team Rudy believes will actually come to pass and catapult him to the Republican nomination. In this scenario, the first five primaries are split among 3 different candidates.
Iowa: Mike Huckabee wins
New Hampshire: John McCain wins
Michigan: John McCain wins
Nevada: Mitt Romney wins
South Carolina: John McCain wins a small plurality victory over Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee
This leaves Florida as the final battle between John McCain and Rudy Giuliani on Rudy’s adopted home field. With their organizational advantage and the strong support of critical Florida constituencies of New York transplants and Cuban and Puerto Rican Communities, Team Giuliani firmly believes they will win a battle in a two-man race between him and John McCain in the Sunshine State.
Before you blow off this scenario, please remember that there is a reason why folks who have a financial stake in the outcome of the race via participation in the futures markets still have their money on Hizzoner.
Scenario Two – McCain Wins
This scenario is identical to Scenario One except for the final result in Florida, where Sen. McCain is able to overcome Rudy’s home field advantage by making an appeal to Republican voters that he is most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief and emphasizing his 20 year Pro-Life voting record.
Scenario Three – Mitt Wins
This is perhaps the easiest and most straightforward scenario for most people to envision. However, it is also the one in which events that we cannot envision at this time having the greatest chance of derailing the whole thing before actually coming to fruition.
Simply put, Mitt wins Iowa and New Hampshire, which springboards him to victory in Michigan and South Carolina. By the time we get to Florida, no one has won a primary besides for Gov. Romney. In the end, Mittmentum is just too much for Hizzoner to overcome.
Scenario Four – Huckabee Wins
This one is also fairly straightforward to imagine:
Iowa: Mike Huckabee wins
New Hampshire: John McCain wins.
Michigan: John McCain wins.
Nevada: Mitt Romney wins.
South Carolina: Mike Huckabee wins
Florida: Mike Huckabee wins.
Scenario Five – ??? Wins
The most intriguing scenario to speculate on is this one:
Iowa: Mitt Romney wins. FDT comes in 4th place or below.
New Hampshire: John McCain wins
Michigan: John McCain wins
Fred Thompson would likely be out of the race at this point, and Gov. Huckabee would be severely weakened by his Iowa loss. So who wins South Carolina? Fred would likely have already endorsed John McCain in this scenario. So the million dollar question is who gets the majority of Thompson and disillusioned Huckabee supporters? Your answer to that question will tell you who to believe will win the Palmetto State if this comes to pass.
In my opinion, it is difficult to imagine Fred supporters flocking to Mitt due to the bad blood that still exists over Phoneyfredgate. It is also difficult to imagine the majority of Huckabee supporters flocking to Mitt after the unpleasantness in Iowa that will inevitably occurs between the two camps. So my answer, for what it’s worth, is that John McCain wins SC in the scenario as well.
So in reviewing my five scenarios, there are a few factors that I am fairly certain you can take to the bank:
Rudy Giuliani will under no circumstances exit the race before Feb. 5th.-Of all of the factors to count on in this incredibly fluid race, count on this one.
There is no plausible scenario in which Mike Huckabee wins the Republican nomination without winning Iowa.-Huckmentum is stopped cold with a loss in the Iowa Caucuses.
If John McCain wins New Hampshire, he will win Michigan.-People always either forget or underestimate the role that Democrats and Independents voting in the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries play in determining the winner. George Bush defeated John McCain handily among Republicans in the 2000 New Hampshire Primary. However, McCain ended up with a nearly 20 point margin of victory when the Democrats and Independents were factored in. The Michigan 2008 Republican Primary IS the New Hampshire Republican Primary of 2000, only more so. There is truly very little incentive for Democrats and Independents to participate in the Democratic primary this time around.
Another factor worthy of mention here is how much of an impact a Hillary victory in the Iowa Caucuses would have on the New Hampshire Republican Primary. If Queen Hillary is wounded in Iowa, the Democratic New Hampshire Primary will be a bloodbath. It becomes a far less interesting race if Hillary wins Iowa. Inevitability will inevitably set in on the Dem side in such a scenario.
Mitt Romney needs victories in both Iowa and New Hampshire.-With McCain’s resurgence, a Romney loss in either state transfers momentum to the Arizona Senator.
Candidates dropping out after Iowa will make an enormous impact.-You can bet that at least one major candidate will drop out after Iowa. This is where endorsements that we cannot foresee at this juncture will come into play.
Mitt Romney will win Iowa.-Unless most polls on the morning of Jan. 3rd show Gov. Huckabee with more than a 5% lead on Gov. Romney, count on Mitt raising his arms in victory on caucus night. Romney’s GOTV structure in Iowa is simply too much for anyone to overcome in anything less.
Of all of my “take it to the bank” predications, this is the one of which I am the least certain. I was among the many that were completely taken aback by Gov. Huckabee’s showing at the Ames Straw Poll, and I believe that this may be indicative of a core group of support that may be difficult to poll accurately.
Sadly, Iowa may come down to a religious war of sorts, with Evangelical leaders/churches racing to organize to match Team Romney’s meticulously planned LDS GOTV effort. Unless significant progress was made in the last two-weeks on Gov. Huckabee’s behalf, Romney’s two-year head start will prove to be too much to overcome.
Well, there you have it folks. We only have a short time to wait to see just how smart I am in my analysis of this race.
Giuliani National Co-Chairman Steve Forbes discussed campaign strategy with Wolf Blitzer on CNN‘s Late Edition. Here are some highlights:
WOLF BLITZER: “Right now joining us here in our New York studio is Steve Forbes. … He’s the national co-chairman of the Rudy Giuliani presidential campaign. He himself is a former Republican presidential candidate. … So you know something about this race.”
STEVE FORBES: “Yes and one of the things that I think is striking about this cycle is how unprecedented it is having 22 states having primaries on February 5th. So this isn’t a sprint where you can win in Iowa and in New Hampshire and lock up the nomination. You have to do well in the early states and be ready for the 22 states on February 5th.” …
BLITZER: “[Giuliani's] strategy has always been you go for Florida at the end of the month, then you go for Super Tuesday … But can he compete if he doesn’t do well in those earlier contests?”
FORBES: “I think he’ll do credibly in the earlier contests and I think he’s made it very clear, he’s not ignoring a state like Iowa or New Hampshire . The next few days he is going to be spending in New Hampshire , make a credible showing. But realize this is a marathon, not a sprint and he’s been devoting resources, time and resources in the not only the early states, but the later states so that he’s ready. … Rudy Giuliani’s got a national strategy rather than a regional or one-state strategy. And I think that’s a sign of his effective leadership. He sees the long term. … [I] think for the nomination Rudy Giuliani will win and he is the strongest Republican candidate. He puts every blue state into play. I come from New Jersey . New Jersey ‘s been a blue state for almost 20 years. Rudy Giuliani can win New Jersey . He can make New York competitive. Pennsylvania , California . No other Republican can do that. So just from a political point of view, Rudy is by far the strongest Republican candidate.” …
BLITZER: “What’s the biggest problem that he faces right now in getting the Republican nomination?”
FORBES: “Like any Republican, you have a very fluid situation, highly unconventional situation and we’ll see how the thing plays out. But he’s got the issues. He’s showed himself to be a fiscal conservative in New York City … Rudy was a tax cutter. … I think Republicans are going to be impressed with that.”…
Read my interview with Steve Forbes here.
Meanwhile, Hizzoner explains we he is the best candidate to lead the fight against Islamofascism in a campaign stop in Iowa:
Against a backdrop of turmoil in Pakistan, Republican Rudy Giuliani promoted himself Saturday as the presidential candidate best qualified to thwart threats to this country and nations around the world.
“I’ve been tested,” the former New York City mayor told supporters crammed into his campaign headquarters here. “I’m ready to lead. We’ve got to have ultimate confidence that we’re going to prevail.”
Achieving that will require a president who takes the offensive by bolstering U.S. military and intelligence-gathering capabilities to enhance the nation’s ability to anticipate terrorist plots and nip them in the bud, he said.
Giuliani urged that more attention be paid homeland security so there is no location in America that potential terrorists might consider “a place of less resistance.”
Even before his experience on Sept. 11, Giuliani said, he had helped transform New York City from one of America’s most dangerous places to one of the safest and had had more experience than his presidential rivals in keeping people safe and secure.
Public opinion polls indicating that three of five Americans believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction trouble him, Giuliani said, raising the prospect of “people thinking that America is not going to be as great in the future as it was in the past.”
Giuliani said he offers the vision for a growth economy that will lift people’s dreams by rewarding success and giving them control over their money and their lives via reduced taxes, less government, restrained civilian spending and moderate regulation.
Giuliani said he believes he is the Republican with the best chance of winning the general election if he can prevail during the compressed nomination process that begins Thursday with the Iowa caucuses and could be decided by Feb. 5 with completion of 29 primaries and caucuses.
“I believe we’re going to win,” he said. “2008 is going to be a great year.”
I haven’t found much time for politics lately, which is pretty rotten luck, since we’re in the homestretch of the primary process. But, there have been Christmas preparations, and a large amount of time with school friends who I haven’t seen in months, and who’ll more or less be dropping off the face of the earth for the next year or so. It’s been a hectic time, but things have settled down a bit, and I think I’ll be a pretty active from now on; I have a lot of catching up to do. I guess I’ll start from the beginning, chronologically.
Mitt Romney Marches with MLK
This was a relatively large speed bump in what was beginning to look like a Romney tailored road. If Romney fails to win the nomination, this will have been the most immediate contributor. But, as usual I think the damage here is more one of perception, then substance. His original gaffe struck me as both surreal and silly; increasingly silly, as we’re presented with real and momentous world crises in Pakistan. But, I can’t feel too badly for Romney here. He handled the situation poorly; the wound was self-inflicted and rent wide open by a still somewhat bare political tool-set. You take your lumps and hopefully you learn to duck next time. If Mitt wants to have a chance of winning the big game in November, he needs to find a poker face while we’re still using small antes.
The McCain Surge
I’m probably alone here among Romney supporters, but I couldn’t be more thrilled by the McCain surge. His rise has coincided with a Huckafade, which means that even if McCain fails to make much progress beyond NH, we still have plenty of good routes that avoid a Huckabee nomination. But, I sense that McCain has a real shot at winning the whole shebang, and again, I couldn’t be more thrilled by this. McCain’s my second choice and a fantastic general election candidate. If Romney stumbles, it’s good to know that someone like McCain waits in the wings.
Pakistan and Bhutto
Bhutto’s assassination might well be the most interesting development in months, from a political perspective. It elevates McCain and seems to be in the process of sinking Huckabee. It also allows us, as voters, to see the depth of foreign policy thinking of other candidates like Rudy, Mitt, and Fred. It’ll undoubtedly play a prominent role in the NH debates, and could potentially solidify shaky foreign policy credentials of a few candidates (Fred and Mitt) and tear down artificial edifices of strength (Rudy). Or vice versa. It’s a game changing event and it’ll be fascinating to see extended reactions in the coming weeks.
The State of the Race
With less then a week til Iowa, a few uncertainties have been resolved in my mind. First (and I say this with the sincerest respect for fellow contributor Tommy Oliver), Fred Thompson will not be the nominee. That seems obvious to some, but it’s significant enough that I feel it’s worth stating. Various moments come in a campaign, or in any endeavor, where the “possible” is pushed aside in favor of the probable; where cold hard reality rolls over blithe idealism and where serious analysis doesn’t admit of certain possibilities. With Thompson trailing by 20 in Iowa, considerably more in NH, and by a dozen in his firewall of South Carolina, this seems emphatically like one of those moments. That doesn’t mean his supporters should abandon him; democracy thrives on irrepressible idealists willing to fight the good fight when no one else will. But, this isn’t Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. In real life, more often then not, when Jimmy Stewart collapses senators yawn and go back to “graft, and greed, and lies”.
Rudy’s position has also clarified mildly. It’s now possible to imagine a truly split field if Huck holds off Romney in Iowa (Huck wins Iowa, but collapses everywhere else under the weight of his ineptitude, McCain wins in NH but the increased scrutiny reminds Republicans why they disliked him, Thompson essentially disappears, and Romney manages a surprise win in South Carolina where he’s currently in a solid second). In other words, it’s possible to imagine Rudy holding on in Florida and carrying off his wild, utterly mad strategy.
Beyond that, this race looks every bit the same exciting muddle of two weeks ago. Romney still has a clear and extremely viable pathway to the nomination. But, you can’t help but feel as though he’s a hairsbreadth away from complete collapse as well. McCain’s resurgence puts him in a solid position, but even more then Romney or Huckabee, his eggs are concentrated in a single basket. He’s a bad bit of thatching away from irrelevancy. Any one, or all three of these early state juggernauts could be faced with an immovable wall. There are better and worse bets about how the next few weeks are going to shake out, but as long we’re talking about the 4 big contenders, I don’t think there are necessarily any stupid bets. In short, we’re in for an awfully exciting ride.
The endorsement was announced at a press conference in Florida today:
Rudy Giuliani wrapped up a three-day swing through Florida today by picking up the endorsement of a national association of state troopers…
The GOP presidential hopeful, accompanied by National Troopers Coalition chairman Dennis Hallion and Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, spoke briefly to a handful of supporters almost exclusively about terrorism …
Giuliani met with veterans’ groups during visits to South Florida , Largo and Orlando this week … hammering on his anti-terrorism platform …
The former New York City mayor went on to praise law enforcement officers whose jobs have transformed from “first responders” to “first defenders” as terrorism spreads.
He called the troopers’ endorsement “a great strength for me because of my own personal involvement in law enforcement all through my career.” Giuliani previously served as a federal prosecutor in Manhattan . …
Hizzoner also discussed Terrorism, military strategy, and campaign strategy in his swing through the Sunshine State:
Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani seized on terrorism Thursday as he condemned the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, saying it underscored the need for increased military spending to continue fighting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“We have to redouble our efforts in that area of the world to make sure there isn’t a slip back into terrorist control in that region,” Giuliani said …
“It does remind us of what we’re facing.” …
After the stop in Fort Lauderdale, the former New York mayor addressed an association of retired New York City police officers living in Broward County … He also visited the Bay of Pigs Museum and Library in Miami. …
Giuliani said Americans scored a huge victory after the Sept. 11 attacks with the defeat of the Taliban in Afghanistan, but he said the United States cannot afford to let terrorists seize control of that country again.
“We need to secure that victory so they don’t re-emerge,” Giuliani said. …
Giuliani invokes the 2001 terrorist attacks in a new TV ad campaign that is scheduled to launch this week …
[G]iuliani said he thought the ad was appropriate and that the images have been used by other candidates.
“It’s a part of my life that helps define me,” he said. “It’s not the only thing that defines me.” …
[G]iuliani made no apologies for targeting larger states like Florida. …
“I wouldn’t have been down here two dozen times if Florida wasn’t important to us,” he said. “It’s important to us because it takes us into Feb. 5. Whoever wins in Florida will have an advantage on Feb. 5.” …
I will have much more to say regarding my thoughts on the state of the 2008 race in a future post.
In a campaign that for the last month had been reduced to floating crosses, haircuts, quick quips, and questions like “What would Jesus do,” it is sad that it takes a tragic event of international proportions to remind voters and pundits alike of the one issue that hovers over the entire presidency- the fact that we are at war. It says a great deal about the sorry state of affairs and attention spans that the next Commander in Chief will have to inherit an unholy mess in the Middle East, while for the last few months, the voting public and pundits have not paid attention to it.
Pundits need to get over religion, hairdos, stupid questions from youtube debates, and any of the other garbage that generation Y has bestowed upon us, and wisen up. The safety of our country and our men and women in combat depend on it. We, as voters, owe them that much. Everything else becomes secondary when it comes to the matters of life and death. I’m not talking about the lives of the unborn here, for that is another debate for another time. We won’t be able to argue over pro-life credentials if we don’t have people to make babies. That might be an over exaggeration, but you get the point. All the other issues should still take a back seat when it comes to the safety of our nation and its citizens. This is one of the defining moments of the 21st century, and I hope the GOP nominee, whoever it may be, is ready to deal with that.
From the moment they take office, they will have to make decisions with the lives of our troops at stake. There won’t be time to ponder the decisions, wait for reports, dig through different suggestions; they must be able to come into the presidency with the ability to make choices of monumental consequences without second guessing, regrets, or time to change their mind.
That time is coming, and it is up to the voters, the pundits, and the nominees to ensure that whoever the candidate is, they are willing, able, and fully prepared to take that responsibility on their shoulders. This isn’t a criticism of any one candidate, but hopefully a wakeup call to those who need to get their priorities in order.
For those who missed the first showing, Hannity and Colmes will be re-aired at 12 am eastern/ 11 pm central time. Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and John Bolton were all guests discussing the situation in Pakistan.
It was a very good chance to see the candidates one after the other and some good discussion from all of them.
