From ABC News:

NEW YORK – It’s been a whirlwind, New York City kind of day for Mitt Romney,  including a celebrity funeral, slices of pizza and a curse-word screaming -protester.

The presumptive GOP nominee cris-crossed the island of Manhattan, holding a private meeting with Mayor Michael Bloomberg on the Upper East Side, attending TV legend Mike Wallace’s memorial service on the West Side, and then scooting downtown to pick up a few pizzas with former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, later delivering them to a SoHo firehouse.

The purpose of the New York visit was to mark the one-year anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s killing, and Romney and Giuliani delivered remarks outside Engine 24/Ladder 5, where 11 firemen died during the 9/11 terrorist attacks and where the former mayor held his first press conference following the attacks, setting up a temporary command center at the firehouse.

The two were at first shouted down by a protester, who screamed the F word at Romney and called him a “racist.”

But the press conference was marked more by Romney’s appearance with Giuliani.

…

You don’t suppose that Giuliani’s name might be on Mitt’s long list, do you? I doubt Rudy would make the short list, but he does have the leadership qualities that Mitt has insisted is his top priority.

Politically, the guy would open up a can of worms with his progressive views. Pictures of him in drag and his messy divorce wouldn’t help either. And when he ran for President four years ago, he garnered all of one delegate.

However, few people can disparage his executive chops. If the idea is to choose somebody whom people would feel safe at the helm of the country in case of the death of the President, I can’t think of anyone better to do it. Rudy proved his mettle during 9/11 in front of the whole world. Who can top that?

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Hat-tip: The Argo Journal

From the official release:

Boston, MA – Mitt Romney today announced the support of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

“I’m very proud to earn the support of such a distinguished leader and public servant to our country,” said Mitt Romney. “Rudy’s successes in turning around New York City are well-known and his name is synonymous with leadership, uniting a city in the aftermath of the worst terrorist attack in our nation’s history. I look forward to his help in the months ahead as I work to restore America’s promise and reverse President Obama’s failed policies.”

“When I look at where we are as a nation and the challenges we face, I am convinced that Mitt Romney will provide a clear contrast to President Obama,” said Rudy Giuliani. “Whether it was creating jobs in business, rescuing the Olympics, or turning around Massachusetts’ $3 billion budget deficit, he has proved, time and again, that he excels at turning around difficult situations. He has also proposed a bold economic plan that will help families that have been crushed by President Obama’s failed policies. With his plan to create more jobs, reduce our debt, and scale back the size of government, America will be back on the road to prosperity. I’m proud to support Mitt Romney and encourage all those who worry about our country’s future to do the same.”

Rudy Giuliani Was The Mayor Of New York City From 1994 Until 2001. He was also the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York for six years. From 1981 until 1983, he was the Associate U.S. Attorney General. Giuliani ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008 and is currently a partner at Bracewell and Giuliani and is Chairman and CEO of Giuliani Partners.

Here is video of Hizzoner’s endorsement on FOX News this morning:

Today on Fox and Friends, Rudy Giuliani took issue with The Occupy Republicans:

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who ran for President in 2008 and dipped a toe in the waters of the 2012 contest, professed himself “shocked” by Newt Gingrich ’s attacks on Mitt Romney ’s private-sector career during a “Fox and Friends” appearance this morning.

Giuliani asked, “What the hell are you doing, Newt?  I expect this from Saul Alinsky!  This is what Saul Alinsky taught Barack Obama, and what you’re saying is part of the reason we’re in so much trouble right now.”

Giuliani broadened his criticism to include the attacks on Bain Capital launched by both Gingrich and Texas Governor Rick Perry, who he described as “a very close friend of mine.”  “I’m shocked at what they’re doing,” said Giuliani.  “It’s ignorant and dumb.  It’s building something we should be fighting in America, ignorance of the economic system, playing on the dumbest, most ridiculous ideas about how you grow jobs.”  He characterized the attacks on Romney’s private sector career as “unfair and bad for the Republican Party.”

Perry endorsed Rudy in ’08.

Daniel Larison criticizes, rightly I think, Jay Cost’s conclusion that conservatives don’t control the Republican Party.  He writes:

It’s true that rank-and-file conservatives in the Republican Party are unrepresented or poorly represented by their national leaders on issues such as trade and immigration, and this is because it’s definitely true that the economic interests of a lot of working- and middle-class conservative Republican voters are neglected by the national party. The electoral record also shows that the relative moderate candidate tends to prevail in the presidential nominating contest, and this is happening again as anyone could have seen that it would. As Cost later acknowledges, the relative moderates eke out nomination victories because there are always so many conservative candidates splitting the much larger conservative vote, which is proof that there are often too many conservative candidates in the mix and not that self-styled conservatives don’t control the party.

There is also always a large number of movement conservative activists and pundits more than willing to embrace the relative moderate as a bold conservative leader on the grounds that he is more electable, which is how George W. Bush and Romney acquired their ill-deserved reputations as conservatives in the first place. When a field has seven reasonably competitive conservative or libertarian candidates and arguably just one moderate (counting Romney as the moderate), it’s no wonder that the one moderate comes out ahead, especially when there are more than a few movement conservatives willing to make the case for him.

But neither Cost, nor Larison, get at one of the fundamental reasons there are frequently several relatively conservative candidates: the inability of conservatives to winnow their field.  Conservatives aren’t actually over-represented in GOP fields.  In this cycle, there were 3 relative moderates (Romney, Pawlenty, and Huntsman), 4 relative conservatives (Perry, Bachmann, Santorum, and Cain) and 2 relative oddballs (Gingrich and Paul).  This is a pretty representative sample.  But the establishment has skillfully winnowed the “moderate” field down to one contestant, sending Pawlenty packing early, and ignoring Huntsman entirely.  Conservatives, however, have jumped for every single conservative and one of the oddballs.  Let me suggest 2 ways to explain this phenomenon.

1.)  The Effect of the Invisible Primary. This is essentially the race for money and endorsements.  Candidates who perform well in the invisble primary tend to have success.  So money and endorsements matter, right?  Well, yeah, but I think something more complex is going on.  Establishment candidates compete in the invisible primary- grassroots candidates don’t.  Candidates who compete in the invisible primary, and later stumble, are more likely to be weeded out.   Why should be it the case that Tim Pawlenty should drop out immediately after Ames, despite running 4 points ahead of Rick Santorum and 5 points ahead of Herman Cain?  Isn’t this a little curious?  A little odd?  Both Santorum and Cain competed at Ames, and Santorum devoted as much to the straw poll, relative to his resources, as Pawlenty did.  Sure, Pawlenty would have had a hard time getting noticed when his money dried up, but Santorum didn’t get noticed until 3 days before the first caucus and had no money at all.  And yet it was obvious to an awful lot of people that Pawlenty needed to drop out.  The invisible primary seems to function as a winnowing process for establishment candidates and the grassroots has no equivalent.

2.)  Viability. Viability does not really matter to  the grassroots.  This is not an exaggeration.  Even now, you can head over to RedState and read a dozen Erick Erickson posts since Christmas which have  A.) Called Rick Santorum a pro-life statist and B.) Admitted that Santorum was preferrable to Romney.  Presumably, though I don’t follow his every post, Erick Erickson- along with many other grassroots conservatives- is inclined to support Texas Governor Rick Perry.  Erick Erickson thinks Perry “can still win” and therefore sees his criticism of Santorum as both a good faith effort to expose someone less than ideal and a way of improving Perry’s odds of winning the nomination.  He is, along with many grassroots conservatives, a true believer.  The True Believer may have many superior qualities, but strategic thinking is not among them.

Rick Perry has now been at 5% in SC for 4 straight polls.  He has not been in double digits in South Carolina in 2 and 1/2 months.  The odds of him coming back in the state are objectively quite low and any improvement he makes is bound to come at the expense of Santorum who, the True Believer admits, is preferrable to Romney.  An establishment oriented voter would, at this juncture, abandon Perry and Gingrich, go all-in with Santorum, and hope for the best.  And indeed, establishment oriented voters have done that all year.  There will be no Huntsman surge in NH to mirror the Santorum surge in Iowa.  Establishment Republicans, concerned about electability, do not see Huntsman as viable.  Therefore Huntsman has been cheerfully ignored.  After NH he will have exited the race, while 3 more grassrootsy alternatives continue on fruitlessly.  In ’08, the establishment Giuliani, despite leading in national polls by a gazillion points for an age, was all but abandoned after December and led in just one Florida poll after NH.  Meanwhile, conservatives seemed entirely unable to choose between Romney, Fred, and Huckabee, even as McCain seemed likely to waltz to the nomination.  Establishment candidates are winnowed by the viability test while grassroots candidates are apparently encouraged to stay in forever.

There is no grand establishment conspiracy to consistently foist relatively moderate nominees on the party.  The establishment simply does a better job of winnowing out unlikely nominees, thereby allowing one establishment choice to have free roam of the field.

While many on the right have spent the last weeks hacking away at Newt Gingrich’s perch at the top of the GOP heap, two big names have stepped forward and given the campaign some encouragement, if not support.

First, former Vice President Dick Cheney warned others not to underestimate Newt. He told CNN:

On Monday, Cheney said on CNN’s “OutFront,” “[Gingrich] was persistent and he was tenacious and he kept it up and kept it up and kept it up and finally by ’94 he’s the newly elected speaker of the House of Representatives with the Republican majority. I wouldn’t underestimate him.”

“My gut tells me right now as I look at it that Gingrich might actually be the stronger candidate.” said Rudy Giuliani on CNN last night, “I think he can make a broader connection than Mitt Romney, as I said, to the — to those Reagan Democrats where you won’t have this barrier of possible elitism that I think Obama could exploit pretty effectively.”

Big news day today:

In other news on doors shutting, Rudy Giuliani announced at a Long Island Association event just now that he’s not running for president.

Asked by the group’s president Kevin Law about reports that he had sent messages to New Hampshire supporters to keep their powder dry, Giuliani joked that they must have gone missing, according to one attendee.

And he added definitively, “If it’s too late for Chris Christie, it’s too late for me.”

Read the rest here.

As I have previously stated, I don’t normally pay much attention to Intrade. I view it as perhaps one notch above a straw poll. I still feel that way. However, this piece of news does merit notice. Mitt Romney’s chances of winning the GOP nomination has just broken the 60% barrier on Intrade.

The current standings are:

• Mitt Romney – 60.0%
• Rick Perry – 19.6%
• Herman Cain – 7.2%
• Jon Huntsman – 3.9%
• Ron Paul – 2.3%
• Newt Gingrich – 2.0%
• Michele Bachmann – 1.4%
• Rudy Giuliani – 1.2%

All the rest are below 1%

My how Bachmann has fallen. From a high of over 18% back in July to less than a tenth of that today. The campaign of the winner of the Iowa Straw Poll continues to die a slow, lingering death. Perhaps she should put it out of its misery.

Huntsman hasn’t been doing that much better. From a high of around 18% back at the end of May, he’s lost 80% of his value with no upturn in sight. It is now approximately 90 days left before the voting starts. He’s running out of time to make an impact.

Here’s the data in graphical form:

It would appear that the only person with even a half serious threat to Mitt Romney is Rick Perry, and it’s not even a half of a threat. It’s actually a bit less than a third. The others aren’t even worth mentioning at this point in time.

Things can change quickly, however. Remember Perry was riding high scarcely a month ago. It’s been all downhill for him ever since. There are two debates coming up in the next two weeks. We will see if Perry can reverse course. If not, well at least he’ll have a great time spending that 15 million bucks he’s got in the bank on a losing campaign. I can think of worse things to be doing.

From the AP:

CONCORD, N.H. — Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani dispatched a key emissary to New Hampshire on Wednesday to gauge their interest in his possible presidential bid.

One of the mayor’s closest political advisers, Jake Menges, hosted private meetings with a host of key Republicans in the state, including Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas, likely gubernatorial candidate Kevin Smith, Congressman Charlie Bass and GOP activist Stephen Talarico, owner of Manchester Harley-Davidson.

“Jake said to me, ‘Just keep your powder dry for another few weeks,’” Talarico told The Associated Press.

Does Giuliani seriously want to get in this race?  Could he jump in with the goal of hurting Romney and helping his friend Rick Perry?  Could he fill the Christie void? Or is he just milking it for a few more weeks?

I think the fact that he is actually sending his aides to meet with New Hampshire activists means that he is more serious than Palin or Christie, who haven’t taken such steps.  More polling has come out showing that Rudy polls better against Obama than anyone and has the highest favorable numbers, so who knows which way he could go at this point.

With Gov. Rick Perry’s seeming implosion at last night’s debate, conservatives who desire a Republican nominee not named Mitt Romney seem to be hurting for viable options. To be sure, there are plenty of candidates other than Romney or Perry that remain in the race, but each of these candidates has already been written off by the conventional wisdom as a lower-tier selection that stands no chance of winning the nomination. The best possible outcome for a candidate like, say, Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum, is that each will receive a fraction of the Anybody-but-Mitt crowd as it begins to abandon Perry, which will only serve to divide Perry’s supporters so many ways that they cease to be relevant, ensuring an easy Romney nomination. As such, Republicans opposed to Romney as their nominee either need to start practicing saying, “President Mitt,” or need to coax into the race one of the remaining white knights who could consolidate a plurality of Republicans behind his or her fledgling candidacy and snag the nomination.

With the filing deadline for the pivotal Florida primary set for October 31st, any potential white knights must make their intentions known by Halloween should they have any realistic hope of winning the nomination. That means that Gov. Sarah Palin’s recent suggestion that she could put off a decision until as late as November is simply unrealistic, as no Republican presidential candidate is going to win the nomination while skipping Florida. Gov. Palin, to be sure, is one of the few candidates remaining who could qualify as a white knight. Gov. Perry’s collapse would make Gov. Palin the instant Tea Party candidate should she enter the race. And like Ron Paul, Gov. Palin has at her fingertips a grassroots fan base that could quickly and easily be transformed into an army of small donors and volunteers should the ‘Cuda decide to make a late entry into the race.

Another candidate who seems to be unable to escape everyone’s radar is Gov. Chris Christie. The New Jersey governor continues to deny any intention to run, even as establishment wonks and Bush family emissaries attempt to push the larger-than-life Garden State executive into the race. Given the Bush family’s interest in a Christie run, as demonstrated by Michael Gerson’s support for Christie in recent weeks, Christie would likely find himself with an insta-campaign at his fingertips. If Christie entered, he would essentially have the entire “Galactic Empire” of Bushie donors, volunteers, endorsements, and supporters at his command. That reality, combined with Christie’s combative, brusque nature, which is pitch-perfect for an angst-driven election cycle like this one, make Christie a real threat to Mitt Romney and pretty much every other candidate who hopes to win the GOP nomination next year.

If Christie doesn’t run, and if the Bushes continue to fear that their position as the Corleone family of the party is under seige, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush may decide to take the plunge. Jeb would likely enter with the same party machinery behind him as would Christie, though he’d have to work hard to shake off the legacy of his brother, who is still viewed suspiciously by the GOP base and by the nation. Jeb is unlikely to run and would probably only enter the field if Gov. Perry somehow makes a comeback, given that, of the potential nominees for president, only a Perry nomination would truly threaten the Bushes’ places at the table.

Finally, there’s always the chance that Rudy Giuliani may decide to make once last try for the nomination. Watching Rudy plop down in New Hampshire and run unapologetically as himself would be interesting if nothing else. But the hurdles are high for Mayor Giuliani after blowing what was essentially his position as frontrunner during the last presidential race.

Ultimately, though, it’s entirely possible that the field is set, and that Mitt Romney will soon establish himself as the probable nominee. We’ll know in a few short weeks whether to expect any further entries to a race that is beginning to look like Romney’s to lose.

McClatchy has published some more data from Marist Polls beyond that which was released earlier today.

Here is some of the data given out. First the head-to-head vs. Obama numbers for several Republicans:

	Obama	Candidate	Margin
Giuliani	42	49	+7
Romney	46	44	-2
Palin	49	44	-5
Perry	50	41	-9
Bachmann	53	40	-13

From these numbers, Rudy Giuliani would appear to be the best candidate against Obama. Romney is essentially tied against him. Perry is nearly ten points behind the President, while Bachmann continues to trail such a match-up by double digits.

The most interesting result, however, has to be that for Sarah Palin. After trailing Obama by twenty and more points in various polls for quite some time, she is now within five points of Obama. In fact according to Marist, she does better than either Perry or Bachmann. Not bad, Sarah. Not bad at all. You go girl.

Unfortunately there is another set of numbers which aren’t so good for her. By a ratio of 72 to 24 — a 48 point difference — Republicans and Republican leaning Independents do NOT want Sarah to run. That makes winning the nomination for a chance to take on Obama a bit problematic for her.

She is not alone in that respect. The man who actually leads Obama head-to-head, Rudy Giuliani, is also not wanted by a majority of Republicans. The ratio against him running is 58 to 32 percent — a twenty-six point margin. In other words nearly two out of every three Republicans want to see Rudy remain on the sidelines; which is still better than the nearly three out of every four Republicans that don’t want to see Sarah Palin in the race. Ouch! That is downright brutal.

Here are the horse race poll numbers provided in the same poll:

Perry	30
Romney	22
Bachmann	12
Paul	7
Gingrich	6
Cain	5
Santorum	2
Huntsman	1

McClatchy states that, “…Palin and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani — would trail Perry but jump into the top tier along with Romney and Bachmann…“, but they give no figures.

This survey of 1,042 adults was conducted on Sept. 13-14. Adults 18 and older residing in the continental United States were interviewed by telephone. Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the nation. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. There are 825 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There are 317 Republicans and Republican leaning independents. The results for this subset are statistically significant within plus or minus 5.5 percentage points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

Will this turn into a replay of the Ron vs. Rudy feud of the ’08 campaign?

Dear Governor Perry,

After our campaign’s first ad highlighting your Big Government record and support for liberal Al Gore, your campaign is attacking Dr. Paul – missing the point of why your past is important.

We don’t think the fact that you used to be a Democrat is the big problem here.  The real problem is that, too often, you still act like one.  Even you yourself, Governor Perry, said of your party switch, “I will still vote the same principles, only with an R after my name.”

That’s the kind of thinking that has our country teetering on the edge of bankruptcy.  We cannot afford to nominate someone who thinks the letter next to their name is more important than what they believe.

Governor Perry, let me be clear: It is not that you supported Al Gore that worries us.

It is that you supported Hillary Clinton’s health care plan.

You pushed for a federal bailout and stimulus funds.

You support welfare for illegal immigrants.

You tried to forcibly vaccinate 12-year-old girls against sexually transmitted diseases by executive order.

You raised taxes twice.

And, state debt has more than doubled in your tenure as governor, pushing Texas to the brink of our constitutional debt limit.

It’s that you supported ALL of these bad ideas that are inconsistent with how most Republicans understand conservatism, yet you now try to swagger your way into the Tea Party.

Governor Perry, with all due respect, you have used great rhetoric.  But you will have to answer to the voters of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and across the country as to why that rhetoric does not match your record.

Truth indeed.  By the way, here’s the ad again.

For Liberty,

Jesse Benton
Campaign Chairman

P.S. You can view a snippet of my exclusive interview with Mr. Benton here.

Paul Beddard has the story:

Surging Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry, the Texas governor, has pledged to influential Christian leaders that he will push pro-life policies, oppose gay marriage, and pick cabinet officials and a vice president who share his values, a promise that would rule out a Perry-Rudy Giuliani ticket.

At a weekend Texas gathering of about 200 conservative leaders, some from Washington, Perry and his wife Anita portrayed themselves as authentic and life-long conservatives who could bring the most pro-life administration ever to Washington.

Over four hours of conversational questions and answers Saturday night and another two on Sunday morning, the couple addressed many questions from key players who are still just learning about Perry, the longest-ever serving Texas governor shoved into the presidential race after other big-name governors and former governors bailed out.

Key among the questions Perry fielded was who he would pick as a vice presidential candidate if he wins the nomination. Perry is an ally of Giuliani and endorsed him for president during the 2008 GOP primaries. At the time, he cited the former New York City mayor’s ability to pull the city together after the 9/11 attacks.

Some of those at the weekend conclave said Perry promised to stick to the pledge when considering a vice president and they left believing that meant Giuliani is out of the picture. Perry is currently far ahead of GOP pack in the polls.

The fact that Perry never specifically ruled out selecting Giuliani leads me to believe that too much may have been read into Perry’s statements.

Be sure to read the whole thing.

Hat-tip: Hot Air.

The latest Gallup Poll on the 2012 Republican presidential nomination contains some fascinating insights into the immense gaps between younger and older GOPers.  Check out the horse race according to age:

Amongst the people who are going to comprise the bulk of the mainstream GOP in 20-40 years, Ron Paul is far and away the frontrunner, with 29% of the vote.  Perry follows at 21%, with Bachmann at 12%, and Romney in a distant fourth place at 11%.

This younger generation is a generation that has a stomach for severe fiscal austerity, that is culturally modern, and that is fed up with endless, pointless wars.  They’re comfortable supporting a candidate who promises to slash entitlements, because they know they’re not going to get any of the benefits they’re supposedly paying for.  They gladly support a candidate who wants to roll back the big-government foreign policy, because they’ve been used and abused in unnecessary wars and nation-building.  They’re fine with voting for a guy who’s going to end the War on Drugs, because they–like their great grandparents did–see that prohibition has been a complete failure.

Paul and Bachmann, two of the most anti-establishment, fiscally conservative, state sovereignty-supporting, non-interventionist voices in the current Republican line-up (apart from Johnson), both poll best among this group.  Combined, they make up 41% of this electorate.  Factor in the support for other socially moderate candidates (Giuliani, Huntsman, Pataki, Johnson), and even–to an extent–the supporters of Palin, who would basically de-fund marijuana prohibition and pare down the Patriot Act, and this sounds the death knell for the Moral Majority, government-in-your-bedroom Republicans.

If the GOP wishes to survive, it will have to acknowledge this fact and prepare to significantly transform itself (and I do believe I see the beginnings of this process taking place).  The era of the Moral Majority is over.  The era of neoconservatism is over.  The era of sacred financial cows is over.  Paul, Bachmann, and Johnson are to tomorrow’s GOP, what Reagan, McCain, and Bush were to yesterday’s GOP.

In addition to Paul Ryan declining a presidential run once and for all, today produced various other news stories regarding 2012.

First and foremost, Jason Chaffetz has decided against running for the Senate:

Saying that the battle to limit the federal budget “cannot wait,” the tea party-backed rising star explained that he didn’t want to devote his energy to a campaign — even one he’s “convinced I could win.”

“I’ll continue fighting for fiscal discipline, limited government, accountability and a strong national defense. That’s why I was elected. That’s what I’m doing. That’s where my passion is,” Chaffetz wrote in a statement. “Ultimately, I can spend the next 15 months doing my job, or I can spend the next 15 months campaigning to do Senator Hatch’s.”

At the end of July, Chaffetz said he would “probably” run and that “people are ready for a change.”

The decision comes as a huge relief for Hatch, who has been busy courting tea party voters, and as a disappointment for national groups who hoped to oust the six-term incumbent.

The same goes for Tea Party firebrand Alan West:

That leaves former Sen. George LeMieux, former state Rep. Adam Hasner, former Ruth’s Chris Steak House CEO Craig Miller and retired Col. Mike McCalister in the primary to take on Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.).

Chaffetz and West would have faced different situations in their hypothetical primary campaigns: Chaffetz would have become the virtually unanimous favorite of the Utah Republican base against longtime Sen. Orrin Hatch, whereas West would have had to compete with Adam Hasner, billed by some as “the next Marco Rubio”, for Tea Party and base support. Of course, none of this musing now matters, but isn’t always fun to think, “What if?”

Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad had some distinctly positive things to say about Rick Perry today:

“I think he did a tremendous job at the Iowa State Fair,” said Branstad, a fellow Republican. “I thought he was as relaxed and confident and at home at the Iowa State Fair as anybody I’ve ever seen and I’ve seen a lot of them. He comes from a farm background, he’s a former agriculture commissioner, he’s a graduate of Texas A&M.”

Branstad added: “Only thing, in Texas they always say how big everything is and we tend to downplay and understate here. But I think he came across very well.”

Despite these compliments, I would not expect Branstad to make any formal endorsement until very late in the game, if at all.

Former NY Gov. George Pataki apparently thinks he may have a shot in the 2012 race:

His aides say he’s seriously looking at running – getting serious about getting serious, if you will – and as part of that look, George Pataki is heading back to Iowa this weekend.
Continue Reading

Polk County GOP officials said the former New York governor is set to attend a party picnic there this weekend.

I can’t say I agree at all with Pataki. If you’re looking for a former Northeastern governor to back, you’ve already got an enticing option. If you want someone clearly positioning himself as moderate-leaning, well, then you’re also all set.

Lastly, it seems that more media outlets have started to come around to the opinion expressed here at Race on multiple occasions, that Rick Perry will look very hard into tapping Rudy Giuliani as his VP if he wins the nomination.

Not quite as big of a deal as the Ames Straw Poll, but New Hampshire’s New Castle Straw Poll hosted by Young Republicans took place last evening:

• Ron Paul 45%
• Mitt Romney 10%
• Rick Perry 8%
• Thaddeus McCotter 8%
• Gary Johnson 6%
• Michele Bachmann 5%
• Herman Cain 5%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Buddy Roemer 3%
• Newt Gingrich 1%
• Paul Ryan (write-in) 1%
• Rudy Giuliani (write-in) 1%
• Fred Karger 0%

All the official campaigns participated in and had representatives at the event, except for Gingrich, Perry, Romney, and Santorum.

Below is a link to a surprise, impromptu interview with Mitt Romney in Iowa. It’s kinda fun.

The interview itself isn’t all that remarkable. It only lasted a minute or two, and they didn’t cover much more than pleasantries. So why post it? Because of the contrast to the other guy.

Mitt was totally at ease, and I suspect just about anyone of our candidates would have handled it equally well. I do, however, have difficulty imagining Barack Obama being quite so comfortable in a similar situation without a teleprompter somewhere in the vicinity. Instead, there would have been a lot of ums and ahs, and plenty of filibustering to cover up not answering any questions.

There was one piece of hard news contained in the clip. It was revealed that the rumor that Giuliani was busy hiring New Hampshire staff was not accurate. His people have denied it, saying the Mayor hasn’t decided what he was doing yet and is not looking to hire anybody.

(h/t Joe)

The Miami Herald has the story:

Rudy Giuliani is quietly working to hire political operatives in New Hampshire for a possible presidential bid.

That’s according to several people with direct knowledge of the effort. They are telling The Associated Press that representatives for the former New York City mayor have contacted veteran New Hampshire campaign strategists in recent days about joining a Giuliani campaign. These people spoke to the AP on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to disclose the information.

They say that Giuliani’s team worries that Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s all-but-certain campaign could scoop up the few remaining top operatives in the first-in-the-nation primary state.

Read the rest here.

Hat-tip: The Argo Journal.

2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

The following two comments were made on my recent thread about Romney’s campaign working the RNC summer confab in Florida this week. They bring up a point that I think deserves front page attention.

The first is from “wateredseeds”, a long-time Huckabee supporter:

Super smart. Romney has the edge…and is going to win out of iowa no matter what. The question comes down to momentum…and holding the line. Romney is playing it SMART rather than SAFE as many people assume. He had nothing to win at the straw poll…he’s a top 3 finisher in iowa no matter what. He wins new hampshire almost no matter what. And he has nevada pretty much in the bag as well. Romney is running for the general election…and if he tap dances a miracle victory off in iowa…it’s over. People don’t understand…romney doesn’t HAVE to win iowa…but he very well may do it. I’ll bet romney lays low and makes a small push in iowa until right before the caucus. He can win it….and if he does it’s over.

The second is from “Still Hurting”, a Romney supporter:

Wateredseeds,

To add to your commentary, the rest of the early calendar also favors Romney, almost as if he could have drawn it up himself. (Conspiracy nuts, knock yourself out with that one.)

The RNC voted today to not levy harsh penalties against AZ, MI, and FL if they jump the gun on the first Tuesday in March. They have tabled the discussion until their January meeting, meaning that everything will be irrevocably calendared by then.

FL is solid Romney territory (not unchangeble, though). He’s a favorite son in MI. And Romney did very well in AZ in ’08.

It looks like he will have lots of opportunity to build momentum in teh 1st quarter of 2012.

There is little doubt that the odds right now are in Mitt’s favor. Things are shaping up well for him. Will anyone be able to beat the odds and take the nomination from him? They might. Will they? Not likely.

I am reminded of that old saying, “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that is the way to bet.”

Now don’t get me wrong. Mitt should not be writing his nomination acceptance speech just yet. By the same token none of his opponents should be slitting their wrists, either. There is still time for someone other than Mitt to catch fire. Time is growing short, however.

If things remained the same, Mitt’s path to the nomination is clear. Everyone else’s path, however, depends upon Mitt imploding. In other words, Mitt controls his own destiny. Nobody else can say that.

Many people like to draw the analogy between Rudy Giuliani in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. Rudy led the polls for most of 2007. Mitt has led most of this year. Rudy led in numbers of endorsements. Mitt leads in numbers of endorsements so far this time around. Rudy led in money raised for the campaign. Mitt currently holds a commanding lead in money raised for 2012. (Did you know that back in 2007-2008 Rudy actually raised more money for his campaign than Mitt did for his? Well, it’s true. If you discount Mitt’s own money, Rudy Giuliani actually received more funds for his campaign than Mitt did.)

This is all true. However, where the analogy breaks down is in work ethic. Rudy pretty much coasted until the winter of 2007. He would give an occasional speech now and again, and would show-up for the debates. But for the most part he never really did any serious campaigning until the snow started to fly. By the time he did, however, hard charging John McCain and Mitt Romney had left him in their dust. He never recovered.

Does anybody here seriously predict that Mitt will sit back passively as Rudy did in 2007? I think not. It’s just not in his nature.

Mitt will continue as he is now, working his tail off for the nomination, taking nothing for granted. He is not an over-confident hare who will be tempted to take a nap before the finish line because he thinks he has the race won. He is in an all-out race for the finish line. If someone wishes to take the nomination away from him, they are going to have to fight him for it. They are going to have to run hard, catch him, pass him, and then never let him back in the race until it is over.

Anyone who can do that deserves the nomination.

When Rick Perry gives his speech announcing he is running for President in late August, try picturing a scene that includes former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Governor of Alaska and Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin flanking him on stage in support of his candidacy.

According to the latest rumors from GOP circles, that scene (or something like it) could become a reality – much to the consternation of every other already-announced Republican candidate. Such an alliance would symbolically bind together disparate factions of a splintered Republican Party, giving Tea Party members, “establishment” members, and moderates a single candidate to unite behind.

It would undoubtedly make Rick Perry the candidate to beat for the Republican nomination, leapfrogging ahead of Mitt Romney for the position of front runner.

How plausible is it? The fact that it has Republicans talking as much as they are (either in excitement or dread) says something already. But consider: the friendship between Perry and Giuliani is well documented; the friendship between Perry and Palin, if not as well known, is just as well documented. Palin and Perry have served together on oil and energy panels and respected one another as Governors. After George H.W. Bush endorsed Hutchinson in the Texas Gubernatorial primary in 2010, Palin jumped in and endorsed Perry, campaigning and making appearances for him. The two have been political allies for some years, and it seems that they are personal friends as well.

The linchpin in this political motley crew is Perry, which is why it makes sense for him to be the one to run. Giuliani may not be able to count on Palin’s support, and vice-versa. But with a Perry candidacy, the trio stands united. Giuliani and Palin get to play the roles of kingmakers and keep their public personas in the spotlight (and their favorability ratings unsullied) as they campaign for Perry.

And Rick Perry gets to step in as the one who unites and saves a splintered and fragmented party.

The extent to which this move is being thought about or is already being planned differs depending on the rumor being heard. The way some tell it, Sarah Palin has (wisely) recognized her own inability to win, and the damage it would cause her brand if she were to lose. Giuliani burns with a desire to stop Mitt Romney from being the party’s nominee because of the rough 2008 primary campaign – and he recognizes the best way to end Romney’s bid isn’t to run himself, but to get behind a strong Perry candidacy. (Other versions of the rumors have Giuliani entering the race as well, but with the sole purpose of bringing Romney down in New Hampshire.) Giuliani also has the desire to remain active in politics at some level, and would love having some sort of power in Washington.

And so the three have been having behind-the-scenes discussions regarding a Perry candidacy with support from Giuliani and Palin. They may or may not be discussing positions in a future Perry administration. They may or may not be working out the details of campaign appearances. But all the rumors say they are at a minimum exploring the possibility, either formally or informally, of such a united campaign.

It may not happen during Perry’s announcement speech. The two high-powered endorsements may come later in the campaign if they perceive a more opportune time to take advantage of their star power down the road. Regardless, having Giuliani and Palin in his corner makes Rick Perry a very, very dangerous candidate in these Republican primaries. And this may be just the plot twist this primary narrative has been thirsting for.

2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

Governor Rick Perry of Texas just got a gift horse.

Push polling is when a pollsters deliberately includes information in a polling question so as to get the result they want.  For example, I call you up and ask you if whether you have a favorable opinion of Governor so-and-so who “has lowered taxes every year in office, and whose record is outstanding in every possible area”.    So, do you have a favorable opinion, or not?

Human Events has taken this to a whole new low.  I call this jam (as in they are going to “jam-this-guy-down-our-throats.”) polling.  They have decided to give Perry a little free advertising.  The ad is in the form of a poll question, but framed in a promotion of his supposed attributes:

Should Rick Perry Run?

An ally of the Tea Party, successful 3-term Governor, and a strong fiscal conservative… (emphasis mine)

Does Rick have what it takes to win the Republican Presidential candidacy? Vote Now!

Of course, as a strong believer in the First Amendment and an opponent of almost all “campaign finance laws”, I have no problem with the legality of this dishonest ad, in and of itself.  But any other candidate would have to include the standard “I paid for this ad” disclaimer.   Not so, with this one.  That seems a little unfair to the other guys. I do have a question for Human Events, though.   When you require email addresses and ZIP codes in order to take the poll, will you pass these on to Governor Perry, or will you simply use them to send more free Perry ads to my email box (or both!)?

Establishment Republicans believe they have finally found their man in Rick Perry.  Include National Review Online (NRO), among those getting on the Perry bandwagon.   Never mind his support of Rudy Giuliani last time around or the intrusive law he tried to pass that would have tried to vaccinate every little girl in Texas against STDs.  In the latter case, he only relented when conservatives found out about it and expressed their outrage.

Below is the video of Perry’s endorsement of Giuliani in October, 2007.

2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

As the dog days of summer reach their apex, the race for the GOP nomination has become nothing short of an epic bore, with former Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Michele Bachmann topping most polls of GOP primary voters. But that’s all about to change, as a series of events seems to be developing that could knock both Mr. Romney and Mrs. Bachmann from their respective perches, making way for a race between incoming candidate Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and the last, best hope of the GOP establishment, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Indeed, Jeb’s walkback from his previous Shermanesque statements with regard to 2012 — the former governor now claims that he doesn’t “anticipate” running — may be a sign of the Bush Establishment’s fears of a Texas-sized juggernaut entering the race later in the summer and taking the field by storm. Rick Perry, a longtime Bush foe, seems all but certain to run, and will probably have the support of such notable Republicans as Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin, both of whom have long been Perry allies, and the latter of whom continues to make no moves in preparation for a run. With polls suggesting that Perry has already surged into second place in the Republican horse race, and with Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann continuing to make Republican base voters uncomfortable, for very different reasons, the Perry boomlet has managed to get the attention of the smart money on Intrade, where Perry, not Mitt, is now viewed as the most likely Republican nominee.

Should Perry enter the race and skyrocket to the top of the field, the GOP establishmentarians who see the Texan as a personal or political threat will have two options. They can either throw everything behind Romney, helping Mitt to prevent the Perry insurgency, or they can get behind the candidate that they’ve really wanted all along, Jeb Bush. A Romney push is probably more likely than a Jeb late entry, though it is not outside of the realm of possibility that Romney will simply collapse once a fully operational Perry campaign unites all of the disparate groups waiting for another Reagan to ride in on a white horse and save the day. In that event, the establishment will either have to make peace with Perry or go for broke with a Jeb run.

A Perry/Jeb race could make for some interesting bedfellows. Jeb, who emanates from a purple state, and who gives off relatively neutral cultural cues, may actually do better in the polls against Obama than the lamborghini red Perry. If so, a lot of Republicans who just want to beat Obama may go for Jeb, as will a lot of the Regular Republicans, the folks who don’t show up for caucuses, straw polls, or political activism, but who vote Republican every time in order to keep their taxes low and their streets safe. Additionally, Jeb will become the candidate of the wonks, while Perry takes the ideologues. Jeb will likely have a Mitt-style health care plan as an alternative to ObamaCare, while Perry will probably present more of a big picture campaign that involves getting government out of the way instead of delving into its operational nuts and bolts.

What will be especially interesting is what social conservatives do if the choice comes down to Perry and Jeb. Both have checked the requisite boxes in those areas, but Perry, the more libertarian of the two, seems to be the one actively courting the so-cons outright. Will Jeb run a more silent campaign on those issues, knowing that his record and his Catholicism will deflect any fears of apostasy? Whatever the case, the sleepy Republican race for the White House that looked all but over just a week ago now seems to be once again up in the air.

In an email to his distribution list, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee took a shot at emerging GOP contender Rick Perry.  Huckabee’s attack appeared to be linked to bitterness over the Texas governor’s decision to back former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in 2008 over his fellow southern governor.

Meanwhile, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, is still flirting with a run, and it’s the type of flirting even his wife approves of. The Dallas Morning News reports that a campaign button collector ordered a “Perry for Governor 2010” button from Perry’s office. What he got back was a button, all pressed and ready to go, that reads, “Perry – President – 2012.” So if Perry’s not running, then that button will be a REAL collector’s item. For all his new found commitment to hyper-conservatism, he’ll get to explain why he supported pro-abortion, pro-same sex marriage Rudy Guiliani last time.

Could this mean an endorsement could be coming T-Paw’s way? Or will Huck be swept up in Bachmania?

I don’t like to toot my own horn, but after I suggested about a month ago that a Perry-Giuliani (Rick ‘n’ Rudy?) ticket would become an attractive option if the Texas Governor entered the race and won the GOP nomination, Chris Cillizza’s exposé on the two’s relationship today got the wheels in my head turning once again. Cillizza believes Perry has a lot to gain from the connection:

The two men are good friends, and Perry was the only Republican governor in the country to endorse Giuliani’s presidential campaign in 2008. Payback could benefit Perry on a number of fronts – most notably fundraising – and would likely strengthen his status as a top-tier candidate if he decides to run.First and most importantly, Giuliani has deep connections in the New York City Republican money world.

While Giuliani’s 2008 campaign was broadly disappointing, one thing he did well was raise money. Giuliani raised nearly $66 million for his 2008 campaign, despite the fact that he never won a single primary or caucus.

One of Perry’s major hurdles, according to those familiar with his deliberations, is whether he can raise the sort of money he would need to run competitive campaigns in each of the early states.

Perry has never had to raise money under federal contribution limits — $2,500 for the primary and $2,500 for the general election is all any single donor can give — and would have to change his model of finding a handful of major donors who can write huge checks to one centered around big bundlers who can collect hundreds of smaller checks.

His fundraising base in Texas gives Perry a foothold in one of the most donor-rich states in the country. With Giuliani making introductions for him in New York City, Perry would almost certainly have the financial foundation he would need to make a credible run – particularly given some of the less-than-inspiring sums reported over the past three months by his would-be rivals for the nomination.

Less obvious, but perhaps no less important, for Perry’s chances of winning the Republican nomination is the boost that a Giuliani endorsement would give him on the national security front.

…Giuliani is still a national hero within Republican circles for his handling of the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Giuliani telling GOP primary voters that Perry is the candidate in the race who can best protect America and keep us safe would be a powerful – and likely persuasive – factor in what is an incredibly wide-open race.

As one who believes that Perry’s cultural cues would present his biggest obstacles to a general election victory, a running mate like Rudy – the most urbane high-profile individual in the party – could go a long way toward addressing that concern.

Perry will obviously need a ton of cash to compete with Romney. As Cillizza explains, Rudy could help in that territory.

Furthermore, I contend that Rudy fans still hoping to see the Mayor in the Oval Office ought to get fully behind this idea and set aside their disagreements with Perry, as it would represent Rudy’s best shot at eventually winning over the GOP en masse and becoming a presidential nominee.

My questions to our wonderful Race community: for those of you who don’t think too highly of Rudy for his social views, would you have any objections to him becoming the Veep of a strong SoCon like Perry? Looking farther down the line, if a President Perry served two consecutive terms, would you have any qualms with him pulling a Bush 41 and becoming the next nominee? And for the Rudyites, would you enthusiastically get behind a Perry-Giuliani ticket?

2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

Hizzoner is “not convinced that any of the declared Republican presidential contenders can defeat President Barack Obama”:

“These are a lot of qualified people,” the former New York City mayor told The Associated Press on the eve of his fourth visit to New Hampshire this year. “Do they have a good chance of winning? I don’t know the answer to that.”

Giuliani, who acknowledges that his failed 2008 campaign was deeply flawed, has five public appearances scheduled during a two-day visit starting Thursday to the first-in-the-nation primary state. The stops include a luncheon with the Seacoast Federation of Republican Women in Portsmouth, a more intimate gathering at a private New Castle home with law enforcement officials and a gun-rights discussion at Manchester Harley Davidson.

It may sound like a candidate’s schedule, but Giuliani backed away from an aide’s recent comment that he would decide “very soon” whether to join the presidential field. He ruled out any decision before the end of July and said his timeline is late August or early September. He argued that he still has the drive to extend his political career.

“I have a tremendous fire for more public service,” Giuliani, 67, said. “That’s something that I feel sort of incomplete about.”

Still, he doesn’t sound eager to be considered even a potential candidate.

“I certainly haven’t decided to get in. I don’t think I would even describe myself as testing the waters. I’d say that I keep it open as a possibility,” he said, adding he was going to New Hampshire at the invitation of local Republicans. “And it will give me a chance to gather more information and get a better feeling for it.”

Read the rest here.

From the Boston Globe:

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will decide whether to run for president “very soon,” his New Hampshire spokeswoman said today.

Giuliani will visit New Hampshire this Thursday and Friday, yet spokeswoman Alicia Preston said he is not expected to announce his plans on this trip.

“But shortly afterward, we’ll hear what his final decision is,” she said.

No comment.