I will update this as I see fit…check the comments section for Aron Goldman’s own linkfest.
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Join the cyber war against the regime! Much of the hardliners’ news websites have already been shut down! Little ways like that are how you can help!
http://twitter.com/Bahram81 sez: Washington Post explain;its poll which estimated Ahmadinejad’s chance2to1 was be4 mousavi announced running, 45%did not answer #iranelection
Why does CNN’s coverage suck so much?
Militia fires on rally, one dies
Obama’s failing during this moment
Michael Ledeen: Still silence from the White House and Foggy Bottom. This is the most cowardly, immoral non-reaction I can remember. I resigned from my job at the State Dept back in 81 when I thought we were appeasing the Soviets’ repression of Poland, but this is much worse…
Iran can no longer suppress its youth. (Oh, and don’t forget — 2/3 of the population is under 25!)
PARODY: Ahmadinejad says huge crowds are for “Iran’s Got Talent”!
Bahram81 on Twitter: Eyewitness acount; Tehran empty of riot police&uniformed armed forces, ppl control the city, plain-cloths militia mixing in #iranelection
From Nobama at Redstate:
McCain/Palin are still in the pole position in this race.
How Much Should We Trust Polls?
Sept. 20, 2008
Summary: On November 1, 2004, the day before the election, polls showed Kerry winning comfortably. The polls in 2004 all over-sampled Democratic voters in every single battleground state. There seem to be a significant percentage of people who vote Republican but either don’t like talking to pollsters or don’t have time to talk to pollsters.
Obama should listen to the “hand-wringers” in his party. Any state where polls show him with a lead of 1% to 4% should be considered a toss-up at best, or, more likely (due to the Bradley effect) “leaning McCain”.
From Rolling Stone Magazine (June, 2006):
On the evening of the [2004] vote, reporters at each of the major networks were briefed by pollsters at 7:54 p.m. Kerry, they were informed, had an insurmountable lead and would win by a rout: at least 309 electoral votes to Bush’s 174, with fifty-five too close to call. In London, Prime Minister Tony Blair went to bed contemplating his relationship with President-elect Kerry.
As the last polling stations closed on the West Coast, exit polls showed Kerry ahead in ten of eleven battleground states — including commanding leads in Ohio and Florida — and winning by a million and a half votes nationally. The exit polls even showed Kerry breathing down Bush’s neck in supposed GOP strongholds Virginia and North Carolina. Against these numbers, the statistical likelihood of Bush winning was less than one in 450,000. ”Either the exit polls, by and large, are completely wrong,” a Fox News analyst declared, ”or George Bush loses.”
But as the evening progressed, official tallies began to show … disparities — as much as 9.5 percent — with the exit polls. In ten of the eleven battleground states, the tallied margins departed from what the polls had predicted. In every case, the shift favored Bush. Based on exit polls, CNN had predicted Kerry defeating Bush in Ohio by a margin of 4.2 percentage points. Instead, election results showed Bush winning the state by 2.5 percent. Bush also tallied 6.5 percent more than the polls had predicted in Pennsylvania, and 4.9 percent more in Florida.
From Ruy Texeira’s blog (11/1/2004):
Final Pre-election Poll Analysis
By Alan Abramowitz
- The National Polls
In the 12 most recent national polls listed on pollingreport.com, among likely voters, Bush is leading in 7 polls, Kerry in 2, and 3 are tied. Average support was 48.2 percent for Bush, 46.7 percent for Kerry, and 0.8 percent for Nader. In the 7 polls that provide results for registered voters, however, Kerry is leading in 4, Bush in 1, and 2 are tied. Average support was 47.0 percent for Kerry, 46.7 percent for Bush, and 0.9 percent for Nader. Bottom line: Even in the samples of likely voters, Bush is well below the 50 percent mark generally needed by an incumbent. In fact, when Gallup allocates the undecided vote, their likely voter sample goes from a 49-47 Bush lead to a 49-49 tie. In the broader samples of registered voters, Bush is actually trailing in most of the recent polls. With a very high turnout expected tomorrow, the registered voter samples are probably more representative of the actual electorate than the likely voter samples.
- The Four Major Battleground States
In Florida, there have been 11 polls since October 15. Bush led in 5, Kerry led in 5, and 1 was tied. Average support was 47.5 percent for Bush, 46.5 percent for Kerry, and 1.2 percent for Nader. Turnout in the early voting has been enormous, with a clear advantage for Democrats. Expect a huge turnout tomorrow as well that will put this state in the Kerry column. In Ohio, there have been 11 polls since October 15. Kerry led in 7, Bush led in 3, and 1 was tied. Average support was 47.2 percent for Bush and 48.3 percent for Kerry. Ralph Nader is not on the ballot. Turnout is going to be enormous and two federal judges ruled this morning that Republican political operatives cannot challenge voters in minority precincts. That was Karl Rove’s last gasp in Ohio. The Buckeye state will go Democratic this year and no Republican has ever won a presidential election without carrying Ohio. In Pennsylvania, there have been 11 polls since October 15. Kerry led in 8, Bush led in 2 and 1 was tied. Average support was 46.8 percent for Bush and 48.7 percent for Kerry. Ralph Nader is not on the ballot. Pennsylvania looks solid for Kerry.
Finally, in Michigan, there have been 5 polls since October 15, including only the most recent release of the Mitchell tracking poll. Kerry led in all 5 polls. Average support was 44.2 percent for Bush, 47.2 percent for Kerry, and 1.0 percent for Nader. Michigan also looks solid for Kerry. Bottom line: George Bush’s situation in all four of these key battleground states is dire. His support is well below 50 percent in all of them and he is currently trailing John Kerry in 3 of the 4. A clean sweep of all four states by John Kerry is a distinct possibility.
Posted by rteixeira on November 1, 2004 12:40 PM | Permalink
Conclusion: McCain is not in bad shape. I just got done reviewing the accuracy of polls taken immediately before the election in 2000 and I found similar discrepancies. That case is not an analogous one, however, as those who were old enough to vote then may remember. Al Gore set off his media-bomb on the Friday before the election: the revelation that his campaign had been sitting on for months that Bush had a DUI arrest back in the 1970′s which had not been disclosed. This revelation significantly drove down Bush’s poll numbers. We need to be ready for the Dem’s media-bombs this time around. They seem to focus on personal/character issues. Especially those with a sex-scandal tinge (Mark Foley/Ted Haggard).
So be vigilant. Donate $20-$200 to McCain/Palin today. We need to keep BHO and the other jerk from taking over the country.
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=obamas_foreign_policy_advantage
California Congressman Duncan Hunter (R)
GOLDMAN: I was interested in knowing – are we making progress with the building of the fence, and where things stand now, and how many miles have been…
HUNTER: Yeah, we’re going to have — we’ll have about 380 miles of what is known as pedestrian fence completed by December 31st. That’s the goal of the administration. They don’t have it done yet, but we are building in Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and California.
GOLDMAN: Is there any chance, should, God forbid, Obama win the election, that the program for the fence could actually cease, or is it guaranteed to proceed regardless?
HUNTER: No, you have to, obviously, you have – any program requires one thing – money, funds, appropriations. If you have a president who is not inclined to finish the fence – John McCain is committed that he will finish the fence. Senator Obama is probably not friendly with the idea of the fence project. So, if he has the cooperation of the Democrats in Congress, Obama could stop the fence construction.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R)
GOLDMAN: Do you think ANWR is on the table now that…?
GINGRICH: Look, I think that’s a conversation that President McCain and Vice President Palin will have to have after the election. But, I think for the moment – we have a commitment for drilling. We have a commitment for clean coal. We have a commitment for nuclear. I am thrilled, and I think that where we are positioned on energy is such a radical contrast with the higher cost/lower production position of the Democrats, that I am just thrilled with where Senator McCain has gotten us.
CBS News’ Chief Washington correspondent/anchor and moderator of Face the Nation, Bob Schieffer
GOLDMAN: Were there any surprises that you found in tonight’s speech?
SCHIEFFER: No, I thought he came off – this was John McCain. He was much more personal than John McCain usually is. He really doesn’t like to talk about his experiences as a POW. He just doesn’t. And tonight he shared that. And, I thought he came off very well. I thought it was a good speech. He sort of appealed to our better angels. And, I think it promises a very good campaign for America. And I’m really looking forward to it.
CNN’s Chief National Correspondent, John King
GOLDMAN: John, any surprises by tonight?
KING: I don’t know — how do you define surprises? I thought he gave the speech he wanted to give. And you can already tell by all the e-mails coming in. Republicans say it was great. Democrats say it was lousy. Welcome to politics. I think that there was a question coming into this convention just like there was with the Democratic convention. Can you bring everybody together? Will people leave with energy? I think you saw the last two nights here – there’s a lot of energy. And, if that energy carries over into the next nine weeks, then we’ve got a hell of an election on our hands. And, I was just looking up at my map, and state-by-state, Obama has an advantage right now, without a doubt. When you look at the electoral college, he has an advantage. But, two months is a long time, and a lot of the states that are in play, are states that Bush carried twice. And, they’re leaning either into the toss-up column, or some are leaning slightly Obama right now, but they’re more than gettable. They’re more than gettable. McCain has to get all the Republicans. He has to reach out to Democrats — a small slice of Democrats, and a bigger slice of Independents. Now, we’ll see. It’s going to be fun.
GOLDMAN: Is there any one single state that you think is going to make or break this election as Florida did in 2000 or Ohio in…?
KING: I was just going through a scenario – look, if John McCain doesn’t win Ohio, he’s not going to be the next President of the United States. It just doesn’t — the math doesn’t work. There are other ways, but they’re in a — you’re in such a rare scenario, a hard-to-find scenario. Republicans have to win Ohio to win the White House. I was just going through one scenario where it came down to New Hampshire. You know, a little tiny state. That little tiny state could be Colorado. It could be Nevada. It could be conceivably a Wisconsin or a Minnesota. You could get a situation where one state does it again. At the moment, the electoral map is leaning Obama, and McCain literally has to grab it, and push it back by turning some states that voted for George W. Bush that are now leaning blue. This would be one of them. This is a state that has voted Democrat that is available to a Republican if you run the right campaign. It’s a close swing state. Wisconsin is a really close swing state.
I also wanted to share with our Race 4 2008 readers a priceless moment that occurred Wednesday evening. After delivering a sharp-witted keynote address, in which Rudy Giuliani unleashed a brilliantly sarcastic, scathing attack on Barack Obama, Hizzoner, unbeknownst to most, returned for an encore performance that night at a post-convention party, to which Kavon and I were privileged to be invited.
Attendees of this soiree were treated to a selection of fine cigars upon entering. Not being much of a smoker (for which my cigar-chomping father deserves all the credit for eliciting my stogie-smoking aversion), I nonetheless decided to partake at this posh, surreal event, in which Mr. Nikrad and yours truly were admittedly, and humbly, perhaps the only two political writers there who were not (yet) nationally known. (See Tony Blankley, James Taranto, Daniel Henninger, Andrew Breitbart, Barry Casselman, Roger Simon, etc., etc.)
Moments after making his second speech of the night, Rudy made his way toward the spot I was standing. There were several people surrounding America’s Mayor, with pen and paper, seeking Hizzoner’s autograph. Despite having neither paper nor pen in hand, I didn’t want to pass up the opportunity to secure Rudy’s signature. Realizing the only pieces of paper I had on me were tightly-rolled tobacco leaves, I improvised, and asked Giuliani if he’d sign my stogie that had already gone out. With comedic chops on par with Dennis Miller, who we, incidentally, just missed meeting at the party by an hour or so, Rudy turned down my request, deadpanning: “I’m not signing your cigar. That’s something Bill Clinton would do.”
If he doesn’t land the top gig at the Justice Department, or decides he doesn’t want to play Paterson’s part in Albany, perhaps Rudy could parlay his star power and acerbic wit into a successful spin on the comedy club circuit, or maybe a full-time slot on SNL. 
Race 4 2008 Essential Reads: Joe Biden Edition
John McCain
Barack Obama
Miscellaneous Election News/Opinion
Note: Article submissions for R4’08 Essential Reads can be emailed to kavon_w_nikrad@yahoo.com.
R4’08 Thursday Evening Essential Reads
John McCain
Mitt Romney
Rudy Giuliani
Mike Huckabee
General Race 4 2008 News
John McCain
Mitt Romney
Rudy Giuliani
Mike Huckabee
General Race 4 2008 News
John McCain
Mitt Romney
Rudy Giuliani
Mike Huckabee
General Race 4 2008 News
John McCain
Mitt Romney
Rudy Giuliani
Mike Huckabee
General Race 4 2008 News
John McCain
Rudy Giuliani
Mitt Romney
Mike Huckabee
General Race 4 2008 News
Fred Thompson
John McCain
Rudy Giuliani
Mitt Romney
Mike Huckabee
Fred Thompson
General Race 4 2008 News
John McCain
Rudy Giuliani
Mitt Romney
Mike Huckabee
General Race 4 2008 News
