PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 50% [47%] (49%) {48%} [49%] (50%) 
• Barack Obama 43% [47%] (42%) {44%} [43%] (43%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 55% [51%] (54%) {52%} [52%] (53%)
• Barack Obama 36% [44%] (36%) {41%} [38%] (42%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama 49% [49%] (47%) {47%} [46%] (45%)
• Mitt Romney 45% [43%] (44%) {44%} [47%] (46%)

(more…)

NBC/WSJ/Telemundo 2012 Latino Presidential Poll

Among Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 61%
• Mitt Romney 27%

Rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.

Barack Obama

• Very positive 31%
• Somewhat positive 27%
• Neutral 17%
• Somewhat negative 11%
• Very negative 12%

Mitt Romney

• Very positive 6%
• Somewhat positive 20%
• Neutral 21%
• Somewhat negative 14%
• Very negative 21%

(more…)

Gallup Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Romney 46%
• Obama 46%

Each seven-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,050 registered voters; Margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Obama 46%
• Romney 45%

Above Numbers Are For a Rolling Three Day Average of 1,500 Likely Voters.

Rasmussen Reports Pennsylvania General Election Survey

• Obama – 47%
• Romney – 41%
• Undecided – 5%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted May 21, and has a margin of error of ±4.5%.

Quinnipiac University Florida General Election Survey

• Romney – 47% (44) [42]
• Obama – 41% (43) [49]
• Undecided – 7% (9) [5]

With VP Picks:

• Romney/Rubio – 49%
• Obama/Biden – 41%
• Undecided – 6%

Favorability Ratings

• Romney – 44/35
• Obama – 45/50

Survey of 1722 registered voters was conducted May 15-21 and has a margin of error of ±2.4%. Numbers in parentheses are from the survey ending May 3. Numbers in brackets are from the survey ending March 28.

PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

• Jeff Flake (R) 48% (46%)
• Richard Carmona (D) 35% (35%)
• Undecided 17% (19%)

• Will Cardon (R) 40% (37%)
• Richard Carmona (D) 37% (33%)
• Undecided 23% (30%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jeff Flake 33% (36%) / 27% (30%) {+6%}
• Richard Carmona 19% (13%) / 15% (14%) {+4%}
• Wil Cardon 15% (5%) / 25% (13%) {-10%}

Survey of 500 Arizona voters was conducted May 17-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID: 46% (46%) Republican; 31% (31%) Democrat; 23% (23%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 27% (22%) Somewhat conservative; 24% (30%) Moderate; 21% (23%) Very conservative; 14% (17%) Somewhat liberal; 14% (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conductedFebruary 17-19, 2012 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

PPP (D) Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 50% [49%] (45%) {44%} [42%] (46%)
• Mitt Romney 42% [42%] (45%) {44%} [43%] (42%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 48% [47%] (49%) {44%} [47%] (46%)
• Barack Obama 43% [48%] (39%) {44%} [38%] (43%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama 56% [50%] (51%) {45%} [46%] (48%)
• Mitt Romney 36% [38%] (40%) {43%} [39%] (38%)

(more…)

Gallup Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Romney 46%
• Obama 46%

Each seven-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,050 registered voters; Margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

ARG Poll on President Barack Obama

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Among Registered Voters

• Approve 48%
• Disapprove 45%

Among Democrats

• Approve 89%
• Disapprove 7%

Among Republicans

• Approve 11%
• Disapprove 84%

Among Independents

• Approve 39%
• Disapprove 50%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?

Among Registered Voters

• Approve 42%
• Disapprove 52%

Among Democrats

• Approve 79%
• Disapprove 13%

Among Republicans

• Approve 9%
• Disapprove 86%

Among Independents

• Approve 33%
• Disapprove 61%

Survey of 1,100 adults, including a subsample of registered voters, was conducted May 17-20, 2012. The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points. Party ID: 36% Democrat; 32% Republican; 32% Independent.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Obama 46%
• Romney 44%

Above Numbers Are For a Rolling Three Day Average of 1,500 Likely Voters.

ABC News/Washington Post National General Election Survey

Among Adults:

• Obama – 49% (51)
• Romney – 45% (43)
• Neither – 5% (5)

Among Registered Voters:

• Obama – 49% (51)
• Romney – 46% (44)
• Neither – 4% (5)

Obama’s Approval Rating: 47/49

Survey of 1,004 adults, including an unreported number of registered voters, was conducted May 17-20. Numbers in parentheses are from the survey ending 4/8/12.

Inside the numbers, we find a party split of D+10, with Democrats comprising 33% and Republicans just 22% (!) of the sample. Meanwhile, Obama’s lead among women shrunk from 57-38 in April to 51-44 today.

SoonerPoll Oklahoma 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 62%
• Barack Obama 27%
• Undecided 11%

Survey of 504 likely voters was conducted May 7-10, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4.4 percentage points.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Gallup Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Romney 46%
• Obama 46%

Each seven-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,050 registered voters; Margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Obama 47%
• Romney 44%

Above Numbers Are For a Rolling Three Day Average of 1,500 Likely Voters.

Vanderbilt Tennessee 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 47% (42%)
• Barack Obama 40% (39%)

Survey of 756 registered voters was conducted May 2-9, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conductedFebruary 16-22, 2012 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Gallup Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Romney 46%
• Obama 45%

Each seven-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,050 registered voters; Margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Obama 46%
• Romney 44%

Above Numbers Are For a Rolling Three Day Average of 1,500 Likely Voters.

Gallup Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Romney 47%
• Obama 44%

Each seven-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,050 registered voters; Margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll

• Obama 46%
• Romney 45%

Above Numbers Are For a Rolling Three Day Average of 1,500 Likely Voters.

Pew Research Poll on Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program

Thinking about Iran, would you favor or oppose Iran acquiring nuclear weapons?

• Favor 2%
• Oppose 94%

(If opposes Iran acquiring nuclear weapons) Do you approve or disapprove of tougher international economic sanctions on Iran to try to stop it from developing nuclear weapons?

• Approve 80%
• Disapprove 16%

(If opposes Iran acquiring nuclear weapons) In your opinion, which is more important … preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it means taking military action OR avoiding a military conflict with Iran, even if it means they may develop nuclear weapons?

• Preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it means taking military action 63%
• Avoiding a military conflict with Iran, even if it means they may develop nuclear weapons 28%

Among Democrats

• Preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it means taking military action 61%
• Avoiding a military conflict with Iran, even if it means they may develop nuclear weapons 31%

Among Republicans

• Preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it means taking military action 79%
• Avoiding a military conflict with Iran, even if it means they may develop nuclear weapons 15%

Among Independents

• Preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it means taking military action 58%
• Avoiding a military conflict with Iran, even if it means they may develop nuclear weapons 33%

Survey of 1,011 adults was conducted March 20 – April 4, 2012. The margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Rasmussen Nebraska 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 53% (52%)
• Barack Obama 39% (35%)
• Some other candidate 6% (10%)
• Undecided 3% (3%)

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of Mitt Romney?

• Very favorable 20%
• Somewhat favorable 36%
• Somewhat unfavorable 23%
• Very unfavorable 18%

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

• Strongly approve 24% (19%)
• Somewhat approve 18% (19%)
• Somewhat disapprove 9% (11%)
• Strongly disapprove 47% (50%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted May 16, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted March 5, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney holds a double-digit lead among both male and female voters in the state. As in other parts of the country, Obama is ahead among voters under 40, while their elders prefer the Republican. Most married voters support Romney; a plurality of unmarrieds likes the president.

Both candidates carry roughly 80% of the voters in their respective parties. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties prefer the president by four points.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Gallup Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Romney 46%
• Obama 45%

Each seven-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,050 registered voters; Margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Mason-Dixon Presidential Poll

	Obama	Romney
All	44	47
Men	40	53
Women	47	41
Dems	80	11
Reps	4	89
Inds	41	47
18-34	56	39
35-49	46	44
50-64	39	50
65+	40	52

1,000 likely 2012 general election voters were interviewed nationwide from May 10 through May 14, 2012 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, DC. The margin for error is ±3%.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Romney 46%
• Obama 44%

Above Numbers Are For a Rolling Three Day Average of 1,500 Likely Voters.

Gallup Romney Favorables

(May 2012)	Favorable	Unfavorable
All	50	41
Democrats	18	72
Republicans	87	7
Independents	48	43
(February 2012)	Favorable	Unfavorable
All	39	47
Democrats	17	70
Republicans	65	28
Independents	37	44
(Change)	Favorable	Unfavorable
All	+11	-6
Democrats	+1	+2
Republicans	+22	-21
Independents	+11	-1

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 10-13, 2012, with a random sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Disclaimer: I have problems with the “favorable/unfavorable” metric for predicting elections.  It works as a simple “what are your general impressions of the candidates” question, but it is way too inexact and subject to far too many variables to predict an election with any real degree of accuracy. I much prefer the straightforward “whom will you vote for” question for that purpose.

Having said that, Mitt’s doing well, especially when you consider how hard Obama and the Democrats have been trying lately to negatively define him. It hasn’t been working.

Gallup’s latest Obama favorables are 52/46 compared to Mitt’s current 50/41. There’s not enough difference to be meaningful, which should concern the camp of the “more likeable” (well, that’s what we’ve been told, isn’t it?) Barack Obama. If Team Obama continues their character attacks on Romney, and Team Romney continues replying with just the facts, things should change in Mitt’s favor.

PPP (D) North Carolina Poll on Gay Marriage 

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

• Legal 34% {34%} (32%)
• Illegal 58% {57%} (57%)

Among Democrats

• Legal 50% {43%} (40%)
• Illegal 40% {46%} (48%)

Among Republicans

• Legal 10% {19%} (16%)
• Illegal 85% {76%} (74%)

Among Independents 

• Legal 41% {42%} (34%)
• Illegal 53% {51%} (50%)

(more…)

PPP (D) Iowa Poll on Gay Marriage

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

• Legal 44% (41%) {46%}
• Illegal 45% (48%) {45%}

Among Democrats

• Legal 69% (66%) {67%}
• Illegal 21% (26%) {25%}

Among Republicans

• Legal 14% (18%) {20%}
• Illegal 77% (72%) {74%}

Among Independents

• Legal 49% (36%) {50%}
• Illegal 37% (48%) {37%}

(more…)

Rasmussen Nebraska Senate Race

• Deb Fischer (R) 56%
• Bob Kerry (D) 38%
• Undecided 3%
• Other 2%

This Nebraska survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted May 16, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

IBD/CSM/TIPP 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 43% (46%) {46%} [46%] (47%)
• Mitt Romney 40% (43%) {38%} [41%] (41%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 43% (46%) {42%}
  
• Barack Obama 41% (43%) {44%}

Among Women

• Barack Obama 45% (49%) {48%}
• Mitt Romney 37% (40%) {35%}

Survey of 778 registered voters was conducted May 9-16, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID: 37% (38%) Democrat; 31% (31%) Republican; 27% (27%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted April 27 – May 4, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 30 – April 5, 2012are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 4-11, 2012are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 29 – February 4, 2012 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal