Joseph Cao actually won! Congratulations Congressman!

UPDATE 3: It’s officially over, here are the final results:

It closed quite a bit from the 9-point lead earlier, but Cao’s margin is so strong, there won’t be any need for a recount.

Cao’s victory is a nice end to what’s been a lousy year for Republicans. Holding the district is going to be a lot of hard work on Cao’s part.  Tip O’Neill used to tell incoming Congressman, “Some of you were elected by accident, none of you will be re-elected by accident.”

More importantly, congratulations to the good folks of Louisiana’s 2nd for throwing the bumb out. It’s been a painful year, but the bi-partisan purge of corruption (Ted Stevens, Tim Mahoney, and now Cold Cash) needed to be done.

UPDATE 2: Meanwhile in Louisiana 4th, this race will drag on a while. Carmouche isn’t conceding:

Carmouche said he wants to see what happens when voting machines results are rechecked on Tuesday and provisional ballots — an undetermined number of paper ballots cast when there is a problem at a polling place — are counted.

Whether there will be enough issues with the count or provisional ballots to close to “Al Franken” land remains to be seen, but given the 356-vote margin, I don’t think Carmouche is being unreasonable-yet.

UPDATE: The AP and CNN call it for Cao. I’ll be 100% certain when we see the final, a politician like Jefferson  at dirty tricks.

In the Democratic-held 2nd District, Congressman William “cold Cash” Jefferson (D-LA) could be headed out just like the corrupt Ted Stevens as Republican Joseph Cao holds a significant lead:

78% of Precincts Reporting

In the Republican held 4th, an open seat, things are much closer and I fully expect a recount:

100% of Precincts Reporting.

Palin credited for landslide win in Georgia

Chambliss: ‘Dynamite’ Palin turned out vote

Newly reelected Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) credited Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with firing up his base and allowing him to cruise to a victory over Democrat Jim Martin.

Chambliss heaped praise on Palin, saying she has a “great future” in the GOP.

“I can’t overstate the impact she had down here. All these folks did a great job coming in,” he said, referring to former presidential candidates Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani. “They all allow you [to] add momentum to where we were in the campaign. But when she walks in a room, folks just explode.”

Party leader credits Palin, majority for GOP victory in Georgia

“The margin you see in this race, I think you can attribute to her involvement in the end,” McKoon said.

Biden to Palin: With the race over, ‘no one pays attention to me’

“I might point out, as I told you when we walked in, since the race is over, no one pays attention to me at all … Maybe you will walk outside with me or something later and say hello to me,” Biden said,

Perry, Sanford and Palin fight for Taxpayers at Philly Conference

Republican Govs. Rick Perry of Texas, Mark Sanford of South Carolina and Sarah Palin of Alaska, led a spirited debate about the pitfalls of adding to the $10.7-trillion federal debt. “They warned that the U.S. economy could collapse”, said Governor Paterson

Palin Power: Former Vice Presidential Candidate Attracts Most Attention At The Governors’ Meeting

The most exciting politician at the National Governors Association (NGA) conference was not President-elect Barack Obama, D, nor was it the former movie action star, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, R-Calif. The politician everyone wanted was Alaska’s Gov. Sarah Palin, the former Republican vice presidential candidate.

“I still have great concerns, when much of the economic problem that we are facing today perhaps was caused by too much debt that solving those problems will not come from incurring more debt”, said Palin.

Finally, watch this…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4Due4f4YsQ&feature=related[/youtube]

Did Chambliss endorse Palin for 2012?   

In the last couple weeks we’ve seen no shortage of sentiment implying that the GOP is in something akin to death throes, provided that it doesn’t come to resemble something other than the modern GOP. This post has been building in me for a while, but the latest piece by Ron Brownstein, titled The Bush GOP’s Fatal Contraction, kind of set me off.

Look, I’m not going to say that nothing bad happened to Republicans on November 4. I don’t need to repeat the litany of losses we suffered that day. If you’ve forgotten, read Brownstein’s piece. I’ve seen those numbers myself.

But I don’t think its fair to say that “Bush leaves behind a party that looks less like a coalition than a clubhouse.” It is a pretty d*mn big clubhouse. In the past few years, under a Republican President’s watch, we’ve had two wars go badly, one of which a very large chunk of the country believes was unnecessary and founded on lies, a recession begin, instances of severe corruption, sex scandals, graft, massive deficit spending, and a city go under water, the financial system collapse, and a Republican President argue for a $700 billion bailout. All that was missing was plagues of locusts, and I’d have signed up for Hal Lindsay’s newsletter. The Democrats nominated not just a political candidate, but a pop culture phenomenon, who raised three quarters of a billion dollars over the course of his campaign, who ran (at least in Virginia) on a platform of ending a foreign adventure, tax cuts for 95% of the American people, a health care plan in the middle of the free market and government-run plan, and good old fashioned mom and apple pie.

The result? The Democrat got about 53% of the vote, about the same as the first President Bush got against Dukakis. Lest you think that this can all be chalked up to the racism of those darned West Virginians, Obama only ran about eight-tenths of a point behind Congressional Democrats.

In other words, about 9 in 20 voters voted for Republicans, versus 11 in 20 Democrats. In similar circumstances like 1952 and 1920, the verdict against the in-party has been much more dramatic. This is a bad result, but it is not a “chuck the social/fiscal/defense conservatives over the edge” bad result.

Brownstein continues that “[t]he consistent thread linking the 2006 and 2008 elections was the narrowing of the playing field for Republicans even as Democrats extended their reach into places once considered reliably “red.” Pardon my colloquialisms, but “well duh.” The Republican party consistently failed to perform and to produce good results over the past four years, and when it did (in Iraq), it was too late for the 2006 elections, and just in time for the business cycle to swing negative. When the Republican party was performing well, from about 2001-2003, it looked like reliably blue areas of the country like the upper midwest and the Pacific Northwest were trending their direction, while nothing was going right for Democrats. When you have power and you govern well, the country swings your way. When you have power and you don’t the country does the opposite. Very quickly, it turns out.

The results of this election should not have surprised anyone, and if they did it should have only surprised them by how well the Republicans performed given the circumstances. When you have a President with 25% approval ratings, you don’t make advances into blue states, you struggle to hold on to purple states, and you lose some ground in red states. That’s not partisanship, that’s common sense.

And Brownstein overlooks the most important fact of all when he writes:

But to win the GOP nomination, McCain embraced Bush’s core economic and foreign policies and then selected, in Sarah Palin, a running mate who waged the culture war with a zeal that made Bush and Karl Rove look squeamish. Both decisions weakened McCain’s position with centrist voters; then the financial collapse deepened the hole.

The very important fact that he overlooks is that even with Sarah Palin and McCain’s supposed embrace of Bush’s economic and foreign policies, McCain was leading Obama before the financial collapse took place (and this was well outside the time of the regular convention bounce). Obama was reduced to making snarky comments about lipstick on pigs and old dead fish and running commercials about how McCain couldn’t send e-mails. He was getting ready to drop Keating 5 ads. In other words, up until September 15, this was a very winnable race for Republicans. It wasn’t just at the Presidential level either — between the RNC and the financial collapse, every generic congressional ballot poll had the Democrats’ lead in single digits; we also had the first poll showing Republicans leading in the generic ballot since 2004. We were headed toward a three or four Senate seat loss, rather than the seven or eight one we’re looking at today. Given the overall condition of the country even pre-AIG/Lehman Brothers, that is astounding.

If McCain had pulled it off, and Obama had received only 49% of the vote and Democrats had made minimal gains in Congress or worse, the conclusion would be either (1) that Americans are racist or (2) that Democrats just can’t win the Presidency.  Sorry, but the difference between a permanent Republican majority and a pup tent Republican party isn’t 4% of the vote.

Anyway, the point of all of this is to go back to something very, very important that Patrick Ruffini wrote about a week ago, and which conservatives should ponder carefully before they start excommunicating any branch of the party or otherwise seriously altering their message. He writes:

American elections are by and large not referendums on ideologies. They are contests of personality, optics, and performance in office. This goes the same for when they win or we win — whether it’s 1980, 1994, or 2006/2008. The Democrats did not have to change their ideology to win; they needed to change the charisma level of their standardbearer and needed an economic crisis and a prolonged unpopular war.

Because ideology doesn’t matter in elections, and so much of politics depends on ephemeral characteristics like personality and who was in when the economy cycled south, the parties paradoxically have relatively wide latitude to govern ideologically without fear of public backlash once they get in. This is why cries of “socialism” were so ineffective during the campaign, and likewise why Bush got most of what he wanted in his early Presidency, even before 9/11. If Barack Obama is able to adopt far-left policies and make it look like he’s making the trains run on time, the country will enter a new liberal era not by virtue of public opinion, but by acquiesence to what appears to be competent governance. In 1993-94, the Clintons tried to move the country to the left and looked incompetent in the process. It was the latter more than the former that opened a door for conservatives in 1994.

This is spot on. Republicans didn’t lose because they were too conservative, or not conservative enough, or didn’t ban abortion, or wanted to ban gay marriage. They lost because they were given the reigns of power, and they didn’t perform. If you look at the big party changes across recent American elections: 2006/08, 1994, 1982, 1980, 1974, 1966, 1958, they share a common thread: The in-party screwed up. If the Democrats screw up, all of those glowing internal exit poll numbers about Hispanics and youth and turnout and what-not will turn as depressing for them as they did in 2002 and 2004, when we were crowing about how Republicans had won 97 of the 100 fastest-growing counties.

That’s the worst thing about this election for Republicans — our fate is not really in our hands. But in the meantime, we shouldn’t act like the results from November 4 are a 1964/1984 “will we ever govern again” result, because they weren’t. What we’re doing on this site is important, and the party does need to examine how it interacts with its online communities, how it presents its message, and how it attacks the incoming administration. But that’s ultimately for what happens when we are handed the reins of power, to try and make sure we don’t screw up again. At what point in time we’re handed the reins depends as much on the results the incoming Administration is perceived as supplying as it does anything we do in the background, but in the meantime, we’ve got a pretty darned good bedrock to build upon.

Ken Rudin over at NPR has some interesting names who are coveting the open Senate seat in NY.  The junior Senator was not scheduled to face re-election until 2012:

There is no shortage of Democrats who are hoping for an appointment by New York Gov. David Paterson (D) should Clinton leave to join the Cabinet. The list includes state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who unsuccessfully sought the governorship in 2002 and who might have been looking at a primary challenge to Paterson in 2010; Rep. Nita Lowey of Westchester, who was planning to run for the Senate herself in 2000 until Clinton decided she was a New Yorker; Rep. Brian Higgins of Buffalo, who would give the Democrats an upstate presence; Rep. Nydia Velazquez of Brooklyn, the first Puerto Rican woman in the House; and environmental activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose father once held the seat. Any appointee would have to face the voters in a special election in 2009.

Governor Paterson hinted to the Post that he may appoint himself.

On the undecided House races:

California 04: As the count continues, Republican Tom McClintock’s lead over Democrat Charlie Brown is up to 970 votes out of more than 312,000 counted. The incumbent, Republican John Doolittle, is retiring.

Ohio 15: In the battle for the seat of retiring Republican Deborah Pryce, GOP candidate Steve Stivers leads Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy by 149 votes.

Virginia 05: Tom Perriello (D) has increased his lead over GOP incumbent Virgil Goode to 745 votes. Perriello has already declared victory.

In addition, two Louisiana races go into December runoffs.

You can join the “Rudy for NY Governor” Facebook group here.

Man, if there is one person that deserves to be in Washington, it’s Tom McClintock, and it looks like we may get our wish.

It could be days or weeks before a winner is declared in the 4th Congressional District, a longtime conservative stronghold in Northern California where fewer than 500 votes separated the candidates Wednesday.

Democrats’ desire to grow their 34-19 majority in California’s House delegation — and pile onto their expanded majorities in Washington — hung on the outcome in the 4th district. Democrat Charlie Brown, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, was in a dead heat there with Republican Tom McClintock, a state senator from Southern California’s Thousand Oaks area.

McClintock led Brown by 451 votes out of 311,091 cast, according to early results from the secretary of state Wednesday. Up to 40,000 or more provisional and absentee ballots remained to be counted.

If no candidate is more than ½ of 1 percentage point ahead in the semiofficial Election Day results, county election officials will automatically begin partial manual audits. After the counties deliver their totals to the secretary of state in December the candidates will have the option to ask for a recount.

Both campaigns issued statements Wednesday supporting the vote-counting process. Each also predicted their candidates would eventually be declared the winner.

Nobody has been a better fighter for the conservative cause in California than Tom McClintock (and an FDT guy also ). If there is one more shining light in the bitterness of 2008, this may be it. I would be so proud to be able to say Congressman McClintock!

UPDATE: Another race that has gone unnoticed, Duncan Hunter Jr. successfully kept his father’s congressional seat in GOP hands. A fine victory for a good man, and the son of one too.

Congressional Republicans significantly underperformed in comparison to the McCain/Palin ticket.  In fact, some of them owe their re-election to the Presidential ticket.

A few Surprises:

Senate:

OR- With 75% reporting, Smith (R) leads Merkley (D) by 15,143 votes.

AK-  With 99% reporting, Stevens (R) leads Begich (D) by 3,353 votes.

MN- With 100% reporting, Coleman (R) leads Franken (D) by 571 votes.  Expect a recount.

For those of you who are satisfied that the Democrats did not reach the magic 60 seats in the Senate, be careful not to gloat.  Just about all of the Democratic seats up for grabs in the 2010 Senate elections are VERY safe.  The Republicans will have at least 9 seats that will be seriously contested by the Democrats.  Vitter, Bond, Voinovich, Burr, Specter, Isakson, Bunning, Martinez, and maybe an open seat in Arizona (McCain).

2010 Senate Election Information.

———-

House:

The Democrats currently hold a 80 seat majority in the House of Representatives (252-152), but this could grow to as much as a 85 seat majority when the final districts are reported and the run-off elections take place.

- The Republican party does not have a single Congressman in the northeastern United States, and were defeated in most of the open seat contests across the country.

- The Republicans gained back Tom Delay’s old suburban Houston seat, defeating Rep. Nick Lampson.

- The Republicans displayed great strength in south Florida, defending all their seats and gaining back Mark Foley’s old seat.

Electoral College predictions by 1pm Tuesday.  For now, the other races.

Governor (D+1)

There are eleven Governor’s races this year:  WA, MT, UT, ND, MO, IN, WV, NC, DE, VT,and NH.  Only five are of interest.

MO: This race became interesting when incumbent Matt Blunt decided not to run for re-election.  That set up a primary runoff between Sarah Steelman (who if elected could have run with Sarah Palin in 2012/2016 on my “all impure thoughts” ticket) and Kenny Hulshof.  Republicans picked Hulshof.  Apparently choosing a member of the most unpopular legislative bodies since Cromwell’s Long Parliament wasn’t a winning strategy, as he is being walloped in the polls by a Democratic candidate who generally loses his statewide races.   Nixon 56, Hulshof 44.

IN:  Gov. Mitch Daniels looked vulnerable for most of his term, but has turned it around and leads former Congressman Jill Long Thompson by a wide margin.  Daniels 59, Thompson 41.

VT:  Gov. Jim Douglas (R) will win his 3-way race.  The problem is, if he doesn’t get to 50%, it goes to the (heavily Democratic) legislature.  Most observers think that since Double will likely win by 20+ points the legislature will keep him.   I’m not so certain.

NC: In a normal year, Pat McCrory (R) would beat Bev Perdue running away.  He’s out campaigned her, out debated her, and out worked her (“I can out-learn you. I can out-read you. I can out-think you. And I can out-philosophize you. “).  Plus, Democrats have held the Governor’s mansion for almost 20 years, a run which is unusual in any state.  But as everyone knows, this is not a normal year.  The polls are tight, but most polls show movement toward Perdue, though both are under 50%.  Look for Perdue to squeek this out, 51.5-48.5.

WA: Similar story as NC.  Rossi is a great candidate, and the polls have been close, but with Gov. Gregoire hovering around 50%.  In a normal year, he’d win, but I think she’ll win surprisingly easily this year, 53-47%.

House (D+22)

This is hard to predict.  In 2006 we had a plethora of good district-by-district polling.  This year, we’re left with pretty intermittant SUSA polling, campaign polls, and Kos/R2K polls (which even Jerome Armstrong has labeled as not salvageable, at least in the national iteration).  And weird things are going on.  For one thing, as I’ve noted before Democrats are not performing in the generic balloting as they would if you expected them to pick up another 30 seats.  Stu Rothenberg is my favorite House handicapper, but SUSA has races like NY-26, and KY-2 as double-digit Republican leads, even as he classifies them as tossups.

On the other hand, the NRCC sure is spending and cutting as if it expects a debacle, and Virgil Goode is running negative ads against his opponent, a sure sign he expects a close race.

So here’s what I think.  Republicans pick up FL-16, TX-22, NH-01, PA-11, LA-06, and AL-05.  Democrats get AK-AL, AZ-01, FL-24, NY-13, NY-25, OH-16, VA-11, NC-08, NM-01, NM-02, MI-09, IL-11, CO-04, PA-03, OH-15 (too bad), NY-29, NE-02, CT-04, FL-21, MD-01, MI-07, and WA-08.  I’ll also say that there are an additional 6 seats they will pickup where sleepy incumbents did not erect a sufficient defence, for a net pickup of 22.  But it’s mostly guesswork here at this point.

Senate (D+7)

The big storyline is whether Democrats can get to 60.  It’s a false storyline, because Arlen Specter, Susan Collins, and Olympia Snowe will join with Democrats on many issues, and more than a few Democrats will join with Republicans on issues (I’m looking at you, Ben Nelson).  But it makes for good theatre.  Onwards!

We’ll set aside the eleven seats for each party generally regarded as safe.

AK: Most polls show a surprisingly close race for a Senator just convicted of eight felonies.  Interestingly, Lisa Murkowski led in all of one poll in 2004 before pulling it out.  Won’t happen here.  Begich 56, Stevens 44.

CO: Mark Udall is way to the left of this state, but it doesn’t matter in a year like this.  Schaffer’s never been above 44 percent in a poll.  Udall 57, Schaffer 43.

GA:  Saxby, you shouldn’t have voted for the bailout bill when you were up for re-election in this populist state.  Chambliss 49, Martin 48, and it heads to a runoff which Chambliss wins.

KY:  McConnell’s numbers have improved, and Obama isn’t going to help Lunsford any.  McConnell 54, Lunsford 46.

LA:  Polls have shown a tightening, and Jindal has cut an ad for Kennedy, indicating he doesn’t think it is hopeless.  Still, it probably isn’t enough, and a huge black turnout will crush Kennedy’s hopes.  Landrieu 52, Kennedy 48, but don’t rule out an upset here.

ME:  One of the Democrats’ best hopes early on never really panned out.  Collins 56 Allen 44.

MN:  One of the toughest races to call.  Only the Strib poll has Franken ahead, and it historically tilts Democratic.  Independent Dean Barkley is a wildcard here, since they tend to underperform nationally, but overperform in MN.  Still, I gotta say Coleman 52, Franken 48 (2PV).

MS:  Wicker seems to be pulling away in this special election.  On the one hand, high African American turnout could help Musgrove, on the other hand, the fact that candidates don’t run with party labels could diminish the impact of this somewhat.  Wicker 54, Musgrove 46.

NH:  An interesting race.  Sununu is waaaaay down, which is never a good sign.  But Shaheen is dancing around 50%, and the case can be made that she is the incumbent for all intents and purposes in this race.  But not a strong one.  Shaheen 55, Sununu 45.  Too bad.  Sununu is a good Senator.

NM:  See CO.  Udall is too far to the left for the state, but he’ll still win walking away.  Udall 57, Pearce 43.

NC:  This is one where the DSCC’s cash edge really hurt.  Mason Dixon has Dole up 1, but the difference is the number of undecideds; Dole’s 46% doesn’t inspire confidence.  Hagan 52/48.

OR:  The interesting thing is that the voting is basically done in this mail-in state.  Merkley hasn’t ever cracked 50% in non-partisan polling, but only Rasmussen has Smith above 43%.  I hope Rasmussen knows something the rest of us don’t, because Smith is a good Senator as well.  Merkley 54%, Smith 46%

VA:  Will Mark Warner top 60%?  My guess is he will.  Warner’s career will be interesting to watch, as he ran and governed as moderate Republican, quite frankly.  Will he get on board with the Obama plan?  Wil he be able to win 60% next in this purple state with a voting record on the left of the Senate?  Time will tell.  Warner 63%, Gilmore 37%.  Time for Virginia Republicans to start rebuilding.

The congressional landscape looks bleak for Republicans this year, as Democrats are poised to pad their majorities in both houses of Congress in just three short days. What will things look like when the dust settles? Here are my projections:

U.S. Senate

According to the polling averages over at Real Clear Politics, the Republican-held open seats in Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia are all poised to go to the Democrats by double-digits. Mark Warner and Messrs. Udall and Udall will almost certainly be heading to the United States Senate in January.

Meanwhile, in New Hampshire and Alaska, Democrats Shaheen and Begich are both on the cusp of double-digit territory over their respective opponents, Sen. Sununu and Sen. Stevens. A good rule of thumb in a Senate race to determine whether or not an incumbent will hold onto his or her seat is to examine whether or not the incumbent is able to cross the 50% threshold in the pre-election polling, the logic being that the undecideds almost always break for the challenger. Based on my recollection, this held true in 2002, 2004, and 2006, and will probably hold true this year as well. As such, a ten-point deficit for Sununu and Stevens is a death knell for both. Add two more seats to the Democratic column.

In Oregon, Democrat Merkley only leads Gordon Smith by 5 points in the RCP average, but Smith is an incumbent stuck at 43%. Another pickup for the Democrats.

In North Carolina, Liddy Dole has proven that she is no Bob Dole with her lackluster single term in the Senate, leading to a tough reelection fight that culminated in a disgusting ad attempting to invalidate her opponent’s fitness for office based on her religious beliefs. Unlike her husband, Dole has proved herself a horrid politician who went nowhere fast in the 2000 GOP presidential race and who is only currently in the Senate due the Republican tide of 2002. Dole is an incumbent hovering in the mid-40s and her opponent is pushing 50%. Stick a fork in this one.

In the great state of Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman is an example of a perfectly reasonable, clean, competent, halfway decent Republican officeholder who may lose his seat to a joke of a candidate due to the toxins that the Republican brand currently exudes. But recent polling suggests that even Minnesotans may not be so crazy as to reject a center-right Republican over an unqualified leftist entertainer. According to RCP, three of the last five polls show Coleman ahead. Both Rasmussen and Research 2000 show movement in Coleman’s direction, so much so that Coleman now leads Franken in the RCP average. The presence of a major third party candidate means that the normal 50% rule for an incumbent doesn’t apply, meaning that this race could go either way. Still, due to last minute movement towards Norm, I am going to call this race for Coleman by a hair. Republican retention.

The three GOP seats that remain endangered are all located in the South. In Mississippi, Sen. Wicker appeared to be in trouble for awhile, often trailing Democrat Musgrove and frequently polling below 50%. But the senator has just hit 50 in the RCP average and now leads his opponent by double-digits. GOP hold.

In Kentucky and Georgia, both Mitch McConnell and Saxby Chambliss are hovering in the danger zone between 45 and 50%. But both have managed to maintain modest leads over their respective Democratic opponents as well. Both are probably close enough to 50 that they’ll both beat the Democrats to the finish line, though Georgia is certainly one of those cases where all the polls could be wrong due to increased African-American turnout that would make the likely voter models obsolete. Still, based on Chambliss’ consistent lead over his opponent, I’m calling both Kentucky and Georgia for the Republicans.

Finally, in Louisiana, Republicans have been making hay over Gov. Jindal’s endorsement of GOP candidate John Kennedy. While this could be a sleeper race, the hype feels more like conservative wishful thinking and a desire for Jindal to do something big and propel himself into the national spotlight. Democrat hold.

As such, I am predicting a 2009 Senate comprised of 58 Democrats and 42 Republicans, provided that Joe Lieberman continues to caucus with the Democrats.

U.S. House

Admittedly, I haven’t followed the race for the House with the same tenacity that I’ve followed Senate races and the presidential race. I will be awaiting the projections of my R4’08 colleague Sean Oxendine on this issue. Until then, I will have to rely on Scott Elliott’s work, which was strikingly accurate over the last couple of election cycles. Scott predicts a House with 258 Democrats and 177 Republicans, which seems to be in line with the conventional wisdom right now. Note that the bulk of the seats Republicans are losing are located in the North and the West, regions in which the GOP needs to regain relevance in order to become a national party once more.

Thoughts? Comments? Have your own projections? Fire away.

It seems Senator Thompson and the RNC Bus Tour are making an effort to target one congressman in particular, as shown in today’s released radio ad for the 12th district:

Former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson (R-TN) is appearing in a new :60 radio spot that begins airing throughout the 12th Congressional District today.

The following is Senator Thompson’s portion of the just released commercial:

“This is Fred Thompson. Whether it’s condemning Marines or insulting his own constituents, John Murtha has apparently forgotten who he works for.

This year folks in the 12th District have a choice.

Retired Lieutenant Colonel Bill Russell will be a strong, outspoken voice for families, fiscal responsibility and our values.

Bill Russell will serve in Congress with honor as he served his country before.”

The Republican National Committee has announced the formation of the Pennsylvania Swing Of Victory Bus Tour 2008, headlined by former Senator Fred Thompson. From the newswire:

The Republican National Committee (RNC) today announced the Pennsylvania swing of the “Victory 2008″ bus tour. RNC Deputy Chairman Frank Donatelli, former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN), actor Robert Davi, Attorney General Tom Corbett, U.S. Representative Joe Pitts, U.S. Representative Jim Gerlach, candidate for Pennsylvania Auditor General Chet Beiler, Chairman of the Republican Committee of Lancaster County (RCLC) Dave Dumeyer, and Chester County Republican Party Chairman Skip Brion will host grassroots events in Lancaster, York, and Berks County, and King of Prussia.

The trip also includes a “Guns & Religion” rally with Sen. Thompson keynoting the event.
Lancaster, PA
WHO: Frank Donatelli, RNC Deputy Chairman
Fred Thompson, Former U.S. Senator
Robert Davi, Actor
Tom Corbett, Attorney General
Joe Pitts, U.S. Representative
Chet Beiler, Candidate For PA Auditor General
Dave Dumeyer, Chairman Of RCLC
WHAT: Lancaster County GOP Luncheon
WHEN: Wednesday, October 29, 2008 at 12:30 p.m. EDT
WHERE: Lancaster Host & Resort
2300 Lincoln Highway East (Route 30)
Lancaster, PA
York, PA
WHO: Frank Donatelli, RNC Deputy Chairman
Fred Thompson, Former U.S. Senator
Robert Davi, Actor
WHAT: “Guns & Religion” Rally
WHEN: Wednesday, October 29, 2008 at 2:30 p.m. EDT
WHERE: York County Victory HQ
2210 E. Market Street
York, PA
Berks County, PA
WHO: Frank Donatelli, RNC Deputy Chairman
Fred Thompson, Former U.S. Senator
Robert Davi, Actor
WHAT: Berks County Victory HQ Drop By
WHEN: Wednesday, October 29, 2008 at 4:15 p.m. EDT
WHERE: Berks County Victory HQ
5001 Perkiomen Avenue(Business Route 422)
Exeter, PA
King of Prussia, PA
WHO: Frank Donatelli, RNC Deputy Chairman
Fred Thompson, Former U.S. Senator
Robert Davi, Actor
WHAT: Chester County GOP Reception
WHEN: Wednesday, October 29, 2008 at 6:00 p.m. EDT
WHERE: 260 Mall Boulevard
King of Prussia, PA
King of Prussia, PA
WHO: Frank Donatelli, RNC Deputy Chairman
Fred Thompson, Former U.S. Senator
Robert Davi, Actor
Jim Gerlach, U.S. Representative
Joe Pitts, U.S. Representative
Skip Brion, Chester County Chairman
WHAT: Chester County GOP Fall Dinner
WHEN: Wednesday, October 29, 2008 at 7:00 p.m. EDT
WHERE: 260 Mall Boulevard
King of Prussia, PA
Paid for by the Republican National Committee.

Any idea on the recent surge of connections the between the RNC and Fred Thompson? He sure has been front and center as their point man recently. Hmmm… interesting…

Good news from Pennsylvania this morning:

Two veteran warriors battling to represent the 12th Congressional District appear locked in the closest race in the district in years.

Democratic Rep. John Murtha leads retired Army Lt. Col. William Russell by a little more than 4 percentage points, within the Susquehanna Poll’s 4.9-point margin of error. The poll of 400 likely voters was conducted for the Tribune-Review on Tuesday, amid uproar over Murtha’s statement that some of his constituents are racist.

About 54 percent of voters among those polled say it’s time for someone else to represent them in Congress. About 35 percent say Murtha deserves to be re-elected.

“The most important variable here is that a decisive majority say it’s time for a new person,” said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research. He attributed some of the unhappiness with Murtha to the congressman’s recent comments.

It’s tough to know how big a factor that is, though, because little attention had been paid to the race, Lee said. Political analysts didn’t expect Murtha to be vulnerable.

Murtha’s last few challengers didn’t come close to toppling him. He won by more than 20 percentage points in 2006 against Washington County Commissioner Diana Irey. He was unopposed in 2004.

This year, according to the poll, it’s different.

“This is clearly a winnable race for Russell,” Lee said.

How sweet would it be to send this joker into retirement on Nov. 4th?

There are 33 Senate elections in 2008. The current standing is; 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and two independents (lean left).

What will the composition of the Senate look like in January, 2009?

Which of the incumbents are at risk?

If Obama wins the Presidency, what will happen to Joe Lieberman?

Will there be any surprises in the 2008 Senate elections, and what are the races to watch?

Give us your predictions on the balance of power and on the individual contests.

If you live in a state with a Senatorial election, please let us know.

This is hands-down the most important piece written about the race today:

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

The new results come from a Sept. 5-7 survey conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention and mirror the resulting enhanced position of the Republican Party seen in several other indicators. These range from John McCain’s improved standing against Barack Obama in the presidential race to improved favorability ratings of the Republicans, to Republican gains in party identification. The sustainability of all of these findings is an open question that polling will answer over the next few weeks.

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.-(emphasis mine)

Image Source: Gallup

Building congressional majorities are near and dear to my heart as I spent the entire 2006 cycle blogging the Minnesota U.S. Senate race.

So it is with great excitement — coupled with a healthy dose of skepticism — that I note a Gallup poll showing Republicans pulling ahead on the generic ballot:

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Public support for Republican Party candidates to the House of Representatives increased dramatically this month in the United States, according to a poll by Gallup released by USA Today. 50 per cent of respondents would vote for the GOP contender in their congressional district, up eight points since August.

Democratic Party contenders are second with 45 per cent, down six points in a month. Six per cent of respondents would vote for other candidates or are undecided.

A word of caution:  Democrats routinely would lead the generic ballot question even while voters in individual districts sent their individual Republican congressperson back to Washington.  In other words, this is not the most accurate barometer of the composition of the next Congress.

That said, it is a marked turn in fortunes for a party that has been buffeted for the last 36 months.

Texas 29, a seat held by incumbent Gene Green (D) is ripe for the picking. Gene did not have a Republican contender for the past 4 elections. It sits in a heavily populated district that was gerrymandered by the Architect (Tom Delay) to make the other districts more heavily Republican. This TX-29 was forgotten in the shuffle. In his attempts to stack the deck, Mr Delay wrote off TX-29 and TX-18 as too heavily democratic to work with.

Well times have changed. TX-29 is well positioned because of growth in the Humble area, East Houston, and North Houston in General. The boundaries and gentrification of these areas are building up a huge Republican base. (Think Ted Poe Country).

Now that Gene Green is nice an comfy in that house, lets give him a shake up.

Eric Story is running for TX-29 and has a great chance to take this seat away from the Democrats. This is from his website:

Eric Story – Republican for US Congress

Eric is a Native Texan, age 51, married for thirty-two years to wife Cheri, with two daughters and four grandchildren.  For over twenty years as a credential minister, he dedicated his efforts to Inner City and Prison Ministry.

Eric’s career path, involved heavily in the oilfield service industry, has presented him with opportunities to travel extensively throughout North and South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Australia, enriching his knowledge of America’s value at home and abroad.

He lives in Texas Congressional District 29 and has worked serving his community as a Deputy Voter Registrar, Precinct Chair and Precinct Convention Chair, three time delegate to the Republican District Convention, two time delegate to the State Republican Convention and as an Alternate Delegate to the Republican National Convention in 2004.

In addition, Eric is a member of the Patriot Guard Riders, The Christian Motorcyclist Association, U.S. Border Watch, and the Republican National Hispanic Assembly. 

A devoted family man with traditional family values.  Although Eric realizes we live in a global community, he believes in America First. 

Eric Story is a member of:

Patriot Guard Riders
Christian Motorcyclists Association
Gun Owners of America
Texas State Rifle Association
US Border Watch

Eric Story is a strong Republican Candidate for Congress.

Gamecock sees no inherent contradiction between Rush/Reagan conservatism and most of the themes and policy proposals presented in David Frum’s Comeback nor Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam’s Grand New Party, despite the hype of some columnists and the author’s themselves.

Both books, but especially Frum’s, claim to be departures from Reaganism, which they see as fashioned solely for the problems of 1970’s and ‘80’s. I disagree, and think that their bold characterizations of their proposals are mostly self aggrandizing contrarianism.

That said, except for Frum’s internal contradictions within the book concerning President Bush and the above, I found most of their economic proposals to be welcome additions to the debate fiscal conservatives should have been having over the past decade.

The most important and pleasing discoveries in either book were that Douthat rejects the premise of the liberal gospel in Thomas Franks’ What’s the Matter with Kansas? and agrees with one of my long time arguments that the GOP must be the champion of middle and lower income families.

Douthat understands that it is not in America’s interest, no matter their economic station in life, to vote for Democrats who advocate proven failed economic policies. Franks’ book operates from the liberal premise that, obviously, Democrats are for the poor and middle class but that these voters have been tricked into voting for Republicans over irrelevant social issues.

Douthat rejects the premise and also points out the economic effects of a failure to adhere to conservative values.

I reject Frum’s argument that the GOP needs to move to the left on abortion, fetal stem cell research and marriage. Rush babies, the Reagan generation and even the new globalist liberals are majority pro-life, recent polls show. Science is on the side of opposition to government funded ESCR, and 38 states have voted to outlaw same sex marriages.

Both books make some arguments that Reaganism is obsolete due to the death of the USSR and that tax rate cuts can only go so far. I could not disagree more.

Reaganism is about timeless principles of Liberty, limited government, and practical application of values to human nature that the Founders based our society upon.

Yes, the USSR is gone, but Russia isn’t. China is making a challenge and radical Islam seeks our destruction. Evil exists, always will and the USA will always be its target unless we are vanquished. Peace thru strength sound familiar?

The major issue of our day, energy, cries out for Reagan-like de-regulation.

With respect to health-care, McCain’s proposals are market based. I remember Reagan and Rush being for market based free enterprise.

Yes, we need to make a comeback, but we aren’t that far back compared to the 1980’s. We are a young movement compared to the Democrats. And, yes, we need some of the new in the Grand Old Party, but not too much. Conservatism is our game.

Taxes? The democrats want to raise taxes, so it’s not so much that we seek tax cuts as a panacea for all that ails America, but surely Reagan would oppose tax hikes, and so must we.

The GOP must try and educate the younger voters that don’t remember the disastrous liberal economic policies of the 1970’s and the Reagan supply-side policies that gave us 25 years of the greatest boom in history. We must use the energy issue to highlight our virtue.

I highly recommend both books to conservatives to aid in fashioning policies on health care, social security, regulation of industry and our lives (even up to banning Edison’s light bulb) and that as we fashion new policies we be guided by the principles of Reagan and Rush Limbaugh.

There are no contradictions.

______________________________________________________________________

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
“The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.” – The Chief Justice
Legal Editor for The Minority and HinzSight Reports
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

Partially reprinted from Baboon Pirates:

Wow… That’s Convincing!

It’s All In Knowing Which Buttons To Push…

I heard a radio ad yesterday for a guy named Faulk that’s running for Congress as a Republican in the 18th Congressional District.

I don’t think he’s got a snowball’s chance in hell of winning in that heavily gerrymandered district, but I’m going to send him a few dollars based solely on his ad campaign.

See, the Texas 18th Congressional District is the stomping grounds of Queen Sheila aka Sheila Jackson Lee aka the Mouth of the South. She has inflicted herself with her imperial attitude and radical leftist agenda on the 18th District for years, and her trademark political maneuver is that she never fails to insert herself into the scene whenever a TV camera is rolling. You’ve probably seen her race down the aisle to be the first in line to greet Bush whenever he addresses Congress.

Indeed, it’s said that the most dangerous place to be in America is in between Queen Sheila and the TV camera. No telling how many people have been steamrolled over the years for making that mistake.

Faulk’s ad asks the simple question about donating to his campaign.

“How much is it worth to you to never see Sheila Jackson Lee on TV again?”

Man, I nearly burned a hole in my checkbook with the speed I wrote that donation check…

John Faulk is a personal friend of mine. He is very Libertarian-leaning republican, which in my book is not a bad thing.

His response to this post is as follows:

Hey Cap, thanks for the kind words. I have been told for more than a year I have a snowballs chance is hell to defeat Sheila Jackson Lee. Well it depends on what a “Snowball” IS and where Hell is!! The TX 18 has not been gerrymanders as much as it has been gentrified. Take a look at the 2006 American Community Survey and see for your self. Some of my African-American supporters are calling me “Spoon” since I am keeping things stirred up. You know Sheila is a Super Delegate (her votes count more than the lowly normal voters) for Hillary. 67% of the Dems in TX 18 Voted for Obama.

Thanks again for your comments; I am look for the check and I have already seen a increase in traffic on my web site!!!!

John Faulk
A Conservative/Libertarian Republican

Lets make sure we unite behind our Republican candidates at all levels of government.

Dole, Burr and GOP should be Nehemiah for lower income families

By Mike DeVine, Legal Editor for The Minority Report and The HinzSight Report

In 445 B.C. the Persian King Artaxerxes sent Nehemiah, an Israelite who was a trusted official, to help rebuild the walls of Jerusalem.

Mel Watt (D-NC) joined most of his fellow Democrats (and not too few Republicans) last month is passing a law arbitrarily bailing out over 300,000 sub-prime loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac while, inexplicably ending a successful conservative program allowing charitable organizations to provide down payment assistance to lower income first time homebuyers for regular FHA loans.

FHA loans are not sub prime loans to credit risky borrowers like a high percentage of the bailed out loans. Moreover, 501c3 organizations like Nehemiah provide an extra level of scrutiny for loans they provide DPA assistance for and coach and assist the first time home borrowers from loan application thru sale and throughout the life of the loan.

The “moral hazard” of the risky loans does not apply to FHA loans, so it remains a puzzle why Congress ended the DPA programs. This is especially so given the credit crunch and housing depression amidst record overall and minority homeownership. If the housing slump is too end, homes must be sold to first time homebuyers, who are, disproportionately minority single women with children. The biggest customers of Nehemiah and other such charitable orgs providing DPA is just that demographic and there default rate is in line with overall FHA loans.

Gamecock has recently cited the war the Democratic Party has been waging against lower income families in their preference for high gas prices and fetishes for snail darters and the Gore Church of Manmade Global Warming hoax while their constituents, post gas station visits, choose between the store brand peas and Lesuer. Especially those of Mel Watt that live a life dependant on reasonably priced gas off I-85.

Mel voted to bring the walls down on potential homebuyers in his district, the State of North Carolina and all across the United States before they were ever built.

Tar Heel State senators Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr didn’t even bother to vote on the bank bailout bill that President Bush reluctantly signed. The President could have used some assistance from our senators of a state so dependant on housing for its standard of living.

Gamecock has also long argued that conservative GOP policies are, and have been since the 1980s, better for all Americans, and especially lower income families and that Republicans need to make this point clear.

Well, Madam Dole and Mister Burr, here is your chance. We hope that Senator Dole will be more responsive to this public request than she has been to one of the more prominent realtors in Charlotte who has been unable to get an audience with the senator on the merits of DPA.

A recent story on the Charlotte Observer rated Dole one of the most “ineffective” senators in Washington. Personally, this rooster usually prefers ineffective porkbarrelists and, in any event cares not for vague rankings for headlines. After all, the 50th best state in the United States is still not in poor Mexico! And the worst vanilla ice cream is still ice cream! But I digress…

Senator Dole has shown that she can get her mind right. She was, not long ago, an acolyte of Gore’s church until she heard painful cries caused by $4/gallon gas.

Hear this cry madam: North Carolina is heavily dependant on housing growth for its well being. The DPA program was not part of the problem of the housing bubble.

Please vote to restore the DPA program and rebuild the walls.

We need Nehemiahs, not another Jericho. The GOP needs to be seen, rightly, as the party of the middle class. So be it, and don’t be quiet about it, unless you want us writing minority reports forever. This country and state is center-right and our policies are right. Let’s take back the majority for the majority.

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns

“The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.” – The Chief Justice

“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew

To bring you the following news. Congress now has a 9% approval rating.

Okay, back to it.

(Note, I’m not sure whether there’s a debate going on about Romney, but its usually a safe bet).

Lots of polling has been released concerning other important races. Reid Wilson over at RCP’s Politics Nation Blog has the rundowns including:

• Mitch McConnell thrashing Bruce Lundsford 50% to 39% in the KY Senate contest.

• Liberal Rep. Nancy Boyda (D) defeating both Republican challengers in her Kansas district that President Bush won by 20 points.

• Libby Dole now up comfortably on challenger Kay Hagen in the NC Senate race.

• Republican Pat McCrory within striking distance on Lt. Governor Beverly Perdue in the NC Governor’s race, but with (perhaps) ominous signs for the Republican come election day.

By sure to click the links to read Wilson’s crosstabs analysis.

In my personal life I get to interact with many different people each week. Most of these folks are either blue collar or middle class. These folks are the sort we need to win.

I’ve noticed some troubling patterns. Many of the people who voted for Bush in 2000 or 2004 have tuned out politics entirely. They’re not simply considering staying out this election. They’ve given up on politics and aren’t paying attention to it anymore.

This means barring some seismic event (terrorist attack, new war) these voters won’t even be paying attention to McCain as he tries to win them over on TV or radio. Do my anecdotal experiences reflect a wider phenomenon?

Those polls that show plummeting Republican ID suggest we may see voters dropping out. This shouldn’t be surprising since Bush’s 2004 campaign brought out 6.2 million voters who hadn’t voted before. Many of these casual voters appear to have dropped out of politics again.

It’s doubtful many of the 7.1 million new Democratic voters from 2004 have dropped out of politics. We know Democrats brought in somewhere around 2.1 million new voters in 2006. We don’t know exactly how many new Democrats have been brought in during the primaries. In states where voters register by party the trends have been frightening.

This may explain some of the shift in the voter ID. Maybe we’ve just had Republican drop out of the active electorate while Democrats continue to rush in.

On the other side I’ve noticed younger Bush voters (under 35) have turned vociferously against Republicans. Dismal seem to validate the point. According to Pew Poll released June 3rd:

39% of Americans are favorable towards Republicans
53% of Americans are unfavorable towards Republicans
57% of Americans are favorable towards Democrats
37% of Americans are unfavorable towards Democrats

Voters still hate Republicans. On almost any issue voters favor the Democrats.

That doesn’t mean voters favor the liberal position. Even where a majority of voters favor a conservative position, they tend to say they trust Democrats more than Republicans on the issue.

I suspect most of this shift has been among the voters aged 35 or younger.

While McCain does much better than a generic Republican I’m getting the impression he faces three daunting tasks:

1) Keeping millions of shaky casual Republican voters from joining the ones that have already left politics.
2) Keeping his appeal to voters who dislike Republicans and the Republican Party.
3) Convincing centrist voters Obama is not acceptable and that he (McCain) is.

Any one of these tasks would be hard. To win, McCain must do all three and have a little luck on top of it. That’s why despite the close national polls, McCain is still an underdog.

By Mike DeVine, Legal Editor for The Minority Report and The HinzSight Report
________________________________________________________________________________

The same Democratic Party that is about to nominate a radical Marxist preaching “hope and change” as its presidential nominee, attained its hoped for change in Congress by running candidates advocating conservatism in 2006.

But given the post-Clinton McGovernite take over of the world’s oldest political party, conservative Democrats wield little power especially given the GOP’s paranoid drift to the left.

America remains a center-right country whose majority is nearly as under-represented in Congress as it is in a culture dominated by elitists in academia and the media.

But don’t lose hope my fellow beleaguered Reaganites. We even have some champions in Congress, as evidenced by Sens. McConnell (R-KY) and Sessions (R-AL) smack down of the Lieberman (ID-CN)- Warner (R-VA)-[Dole (R-NC)?] De-CAP-itate the American economy and TRADE away our liberty Bill this week, lest the American people get to watch Democrats vote down common sense majority positions on C-Span II.

Meanwhile, Gamecock’s congressman urges oil drilling off N.C. coast:

Drivers upset with high gas prices could find relief off the N.C. coast, U.S. Rep. Sue Myrick said Thursday.

Using a gas station as a backdrop, the Charlotte Republican renewed calls for oil and gas drilling off the Atlantic Coast. Drilling is now prohibited under a longstanding moratorium.

“I’m as frustrated as the next person when it comes to filling up my car,” she said, overlooking pumps selling regular for $3.99. “One of the things we need to do is use more of our own resources.”

Myrick has introduced the Deep Ocean Energy Resources Act of 2008. It would give states authority to permit drilling within 100 miles of their coast, while allowing the federal government to lease sites beyond 100 miles. The moratorium is in effect until 2012.

A bill similar to Myrick’s passed the then-Republican controlled House largely along party lines in 2006. It did not make it through the Senate. She said she thinks this time will be different.

“People are paying $4 a gallon for gasoline,” she said. “They weren’t in 2006.”

Myrick aides pointed to a Gallup Poll released Wednesday that shows 57 percent of Americans favor drilling in coastal and wilderness areas currently off limits. Myrick said she’s driven in part by the fact that Cuba has leased drilling rights to China and Spain in waters 50 miles off Florida.

“That’s our oil!” Myrick said in a rising voice. “China already has our jobs. Are we going to give them our oil, too?”

The former mayor of the Queen City lays it out nicely, doesn’t she?

Too bad she isn’t in the Senate seat now held by the wife of a former senator from a state with no coastline who gets her “maverick” mug plastered on page A1 as a missionary for Al Gore’s Church of man-made global warming while a clear headed Myrick makes page B6.

Bob, we gave you a standing ovation for your curt e-mail smackdown of Scott turncoat Texan McClellan. Could you please re-tar the heels of this close relative of yours?:

Dole is climate bill’s unlikely ally

Global warming threatens U.S. security, senator says.

The U.S. Senate is scheduled to cast a historic vote today on the first comprehensive global warming bill to make its way out of a committee room.

The sweeping legislation is expected to die.

But among those supporting the measure will be Sen. Elizabeth Dole, the Salisbury Republican whose voting record is among the Senate’s most conservative.

“It’s very important that we move on this because the costs of inaction are just too great,” Dole said Thursday. “The data became more and more voluminous.”

Her eureka moment, she said, came more than a year ago, after poring over the science about climate change and concluding that the Earth definitely is getting warmer.

Two colleagues on the Armed Services Committee – Independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Republican John Warner of Virginia – persuaded her about the effect of climate change on national security.

This convert to the GOP after a 2000 conservative epiphany is sick and tired of voting for Republicans that have “eureka” moments surrounded by liberals in Washington, D.C.

[And you will search the whole article in vain for HOW global warming threatens our national security (not to mention the dearth of evidence that man can control the weather - vanity of vanities).]

The only Eureka moments conservatives need concern themselves with are the four years worth of same Ronald Reagan spent at the Illinois college that taught him the basics of economics that saved America in the 1980s.

Dole is opposed by her fellow Tar Heel republican Senator Richard Burr.

South of here in the more refined Carolina (see Spartanburg and Charleston), Republican conservative stalwart Jim DeMint is with Burr, but we suspect McCain’s Vice-President Lindsey Graham supported the now dead bill as did McCain (too busy campaigning to vote).

Graham was also a senator that spoke to racist La Raza group last year and called opponents of the amnesty bill, racists.

Thank God the Palmetto State’s governor was and is no more intimidated by Graham (nor of the prospect of McCain speaking to “The Race” in July) than Rush Limbaugh and We the People were last summer when we smacked that abominable bill last summer.

SC’s Sanford signs illegal immigration bill

COLUMBIA, S.C. – Gov. Mark Sanford signed legislation Wednesday that threatens to temporarily shut down businesses and fine them up to $1,000 per worker if they employ illegal immigrants.

Sanford, surrounded by about 20 legislators, said the measure reasserts the rule of law in South Carolina – cracking down on the “wink-and-nod” employment of illegal immigrants. He and legislators said they hope the ideas spread and force Congress to act.

“The message is loud and clear: Stop the silent invasion of this state,” said Senate President Pro Tem Glenn McConnell, R-Charleston.

Legislators boasted the measure is the most strict and effective anti-illegal-immigrant bill in the country. Lawmakers made the law increasingly tougher as debate progressed, with constituents becoming more frustrated by the federal government’s inaction on the issue.

“It’s certainly one of the toughest, if not the toughest,” said Larry Frankel, state legislative counsel in the American Civil Liberty Union’s Washington office.

Rep. Thad Viers, R-Myrtle Beach, predicted the law will lower the state’s unemployment rate, at 5.9 percent in April, because immigrants will “self-deport” and make more jobs available.

This comes on the heels of a historic conservative legislative session on abortion law, religious free speech, criminal law and free market health insurance reform in South Carolina.

Hope and change the conservative American majority can believe in lies in following the federalist lessons being espoused south of the Old Dominion and north of the Peach State.

Never mistake democratic primary voters for America. Obama won the Carolinas’ primaries. Some liberal always wins democratic contests down here. (see Bill Clinton re Jesse Jackson).

But come November, the actual election occurs. There has been a lot of wild talk that N.C. or even S.C. could be in play this November. I’m not going to dignify the suggestion re the home of the birthplace of Old Hickory, but as to Polk’s state:

Democrats’ percentage of the presidential vote in North Carolina from 1980-2004 has been: 47, 38, 42, 42, 44, 43, and 44, respectively.

I don’t see a 50, do you? I don’t even see a 48.

Obama’s only hope? He smokes.

McCain will smoke him, and if he would follow Myrick and Sanford’s lead, he’ll snuff him out by a landslide.

[UPDATE RE NO MAJOR DRILLING RELATED OIL SPILLS SINCE 1969]

Drill, Coast Haste

Uncle Sam bans states from drilling in the Atlantic, Pacific and eastern Gulf mainly to protect the environment. Some 85% of the U.S. coastline is off-limits to energy production — including huge reserves off Florida’s coast, which China is exploiting in Cuban waters.

To change that, a lawmaker is offering a novel idea. Rep. Sue Myrick of the House Energy and Commerce panel wants to let coastal states decide whether drilling is environmentally risky. She has introduced a bill that would give coastal states that want offshore drilling the power to opt out of the Interior Department’s offshore restrictions.

And as a powerful incentive, Myrick, R-N.C., proposes cutting them (and adjacent states) in on the federal revenues from leases. Washington now collects as much as $8 billion a year in existing Gulf royalties, a figure that would balloon as coastal regions opened for exploration.

Her Deep Ocean Energy Resources Act would give states the ability to control energy production up to 100 miles off their shores and would extend their territorial waters.

But the bill faces major hurdles. Even if Myrick can get the House panel’s Democrat chair, Rep. John Dingell, to take it up, it would face stiff opposition in the Senate. Florida Sens. Mel Martinez and Bill Nelson have blocked previous attempts to lift the ban on drilling — although Martinez, a Republican, lately has shown signs of softening.

Foes have successfully cloaked their arguments against offshore drilling in eco-apocalypse, claim it will lead to oil spills. Fearing tar-ball-pocked beaches, the tourism industry has joined the greens in lobbying against such bills.

Their fears are unfounded. And politicians concerned about America’s energy security ought to do a better job educating the public with the facts. For example:

• Less than one one-thousandth of a percent (0.001%) of the 7 billion-plus barrels of oil that Washington has allowed to be produced offshore over the past 25 years has been spilled, according to the Interior Department.

• A whopping 63% of petro pollution in North American seas comes not from offshore rigs, but from natural seepage from the sea floor. Source: National Academy of Sciences.

• There hasn’t been a major oil spill from an offshore well since 1969 even though rigs since then have been lashed by Katrina and other major hurricanes.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
The Minority Report and The HinzSight Report
Race 4 2008
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

As I and many others have postulated before, Romney’s gracious bowing out of the GOP primaries this year was a huge move in uniting the party as well as the first step in preparing for a run in 2012 should McCain lose this November. Since that time, Romney is doing exactly what he needs to build support among conservatives and the GOP party faithful — making speeches at GOP conventions and Lincoln Day dinners, headlining fundraising events for groups such as the Susan B Anthony List, filling in for Paul Harvey on his radio news show, and yes, fundraising and campaigning for John McCain.

This morning, the Romney team launched their new PAC: Free and Strong America.

The name is lifted from a line in his “Faith in America” speech:

“You left us, your children, a free and strong America. It is why we call yours the greatest generation. It is now my generation’s turn. How we respond to today’s challenges will define our generation, and it will determine what kind of America we leave our children, and theirs.”

The PAC is more or less a reassembling of the Romney campaign team, including big names such as James Bopp, Peter Flaherty, Vin Weber, Carl Forti (CEO of Freedom’s Watch), and of course, Beth Myers and Kevin Madden.

The main purpose of the PAC is to harness and funnel Romney’s fundraising capabilities for conservative candidates in the upcoming election. They’ve selected 7 House candidates to back so far – and Marc Ambinder notes, “Make no mistake: the candidates Romney’s PAC is supporting are all solid conservatives.” And, Free and Strong America is supporting John McCain for President.

Of course, the PAC also acts as a vehicle to allow Mitt to stay in the political spotlight as well: he is featured on the homepage as the chairman of the PAC and there’s a “Learn About Mitt” tab for his biography of accomplishments.

Hi, I’m the econ grad stud from the comments. I’ve been invited to blog so here goes:

Democrats didn’t win all the seats they could in 2006. In 2008 we’re going to be defending 8 Senate seats while the Democrats defend only one. In the House we’ve lost reliably Republican seats and the results from Illinois suggest the losses will continue. Our Republican brand is shattered. Even our popular maverick Presidential candidate has only even odds of being elected.

Ok, now on with the good news.

First the Democrats appear ready to throw away the Presidency by weakening each candidate in the primary. An all Democrat government becomes less likely every day that Hillary and Obama battle.

Secondly the Democrats aren’t winning on merits. Swing voters aren’t voting for Democrat’s agenda. Swing voters are voting for Democrats because they’re mad at Republicans. As swing voters begin to realize Democrats are in power they will begin to expect them to govern and not run a do-nothing Congress.

Third our structural advantages limit our loses. In 2000 George Bush lost the popular vote by half a million votes but he won 52.4% of the Congressional Districts. If we won 2% more of the vote in 2008 than 2006 we’d gain 13 seats in the House.

Fourth, if McCain has coattails he’s likely to help a lot of vulnerable Republicans in swing districts. McCain is a unique candidate in his ability to turn voters back on to a new Republican brand.

I’m guardedly optimistic about 2008. We may yet grab victory from the jaws of defeat.

But not Mitt…

Utahans may get the chance to vote for a Romney this November after all – Josh Romney, the son of former GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney, says he’s considering a run for Congress.

Of course, there’s always the possibility that Mitt Romney may end up on the ballot as a vice presidential candidate.

Josh Romney told the Deseret Morning News that after a year of campaigning across country for his father, he’s been approached to run as a Republican against 2nd Congressional District Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah.

“I haven’t ruled it out,” Josh Romney, 32, of Millcreek, said of becoming a candidate himself. “I’m pretty young, but I’ve had good experience on the campaign trail.” Plus, he said, he likely could count on his father’s supporters here in Utah.

“Wait, running for Congress takes time and money!?! NOW YOU TELL ME??”

That’s a quick synopsis of why Republican Nominee Tim Baldermann, who is/was running to fill the vacated seat in Illinois’s 11th Congressional District- which was bound to be one of the most hottest congressional races this year, has decided to drop out.

Baldermann, 41, said that until the primary was finished, he was unaware of how time consuming his campaign would be.

He said when he ran for mayor he had no trouble fulfilling his duties as police chief, despite critics who said it could not be done. But campaigning in a large congressional district and raising the money to run a legitimate campaign would require all of his time and attention over the next nine months.

“That wouldn’t be fair to the people of Chicago Ridge, New Lenox, or my wife and children,” Baldermann said. Link

Why does this remind me of how republicans lost the Senate race in 2004, which in turn gave us a certain senator who has garnered little media attentions since?

I am still a little shocked that someone could run and win the Republican nomination for a congressional seat and not understand it would take a lot of personal investment- as if it would be his Saturday morning hobby. But the fact of the matter is…we’re screwed.

This is welcome good news:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if the Congressional Election were held today, 44% of American voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their district and 40% would opt for the Republican (see crosstabs). That’s the first time the Republicans have reached the 40% level of support in more than a year. It’s also the second consecutive month that the Democrat’s advantage has been in single digits. A month ago, Democrats enjoyed a five-point lead. Two months ago, they had a ten-point edge over the GOP.

Democrats lead by thirteen among women while Republicans lead by six among men.

Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided between the parties-32% say they’ll vote for a Republican, 32% for a Democrat, 13% for a third-party option, and 23% remain undecided. A month ago, Democrats had a six-point lead among unaffiliated voters. Two months ago, they enjoyed a twenty-point advantage.

Just 15% of Americans currently give Congress good or excellent marks for their legislative efforts. Bleak as those numbers are, they reflect a two-point gain compared to last month (see monthly results since Election 2006).

While the GOP has closed the gap on the Generic Congressional Ballot in recent months, the number of people who consider themselves to be Democrats has just reached the highest level in three years.

Help to send a Massachusetts Republican to Congress. No, that’s not a misprint.

Meet Lt. Col. Jim Ogonowski (Ret.), the Republican candidate running in the October 16th special election in Massachusetts’ 5th district. Jim is a 28-year veteran of the Air Force and Air National Guard. On September 11th, 2001, Jim’s brother John was the pilot of hijacked American Airlines Flight 11, the second plane to hit the World Trade Center. Ever since, Jim has dedicated himself to helping John’s family, and now works his brother’s farm.

A SurveyUSA/WBZ-TV poll out last week shows Jim behind by just 10 points — 51-41 percent. That’s remarkable in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to Congress in over a decade! What makes this even more incredible is the fact that Jim’s Democrat opponent is the well-known wife of a late U.S. Senator.

You need to watch Jim’s TV ads to understand the tremendous appeal he has in this race. And once you have, will you chip in $25, $50, or $100 through Rightroots to keep Jim going all the way through Election Day?

http://www.RightRoots.com/Ogonowski

This race is winnable if Jim gets the resources he needs to stay competitive. This is a district that only went for John Kerry by 7 points in the last Presidential election and where Democratic governor Deval Patrick was held to 50% in 2006 despite winning the state overwhelmingly. Polls show Jim winning with independent voters 46-39% — and that’s 51% of all the district’s voters. All the ingredients are in place for a stunning upset — and now Jim needs our generous support to carry him across the finish line.

Taking back a Congressional seat in the bluest of blue states would simply stun the liberal media and show that the GOP is alive and well heading into to 2008.

Will you pitch in today?