The impressive showing of Mitt Romney in Arizona and Michigan will now be followed in a few days by several primaries on Super Tuesday. The liberal media narrative (echoed by some conservative media pundits) before the Michigan vote was that the former Massachusetts governor (who had been born in Michigan) “faced defeat in his home state” from “surging Rick Santorum.” While it was no landslide, a 32,000 vote margin for Romney (it would have been 60,000 to 75,000 vote margin without the crossover Democratic votes intended to sabotage Romney) was not really a “narrow” margin. The difference between Romney and Santorum was less than 50 votes in Iowa. THAT was close!
The surge for Santorum lasted a few weeks, and was based on three insignificant events, two small caucuses and a non-binding primary in which one major candidate was not even on the ballot. Suddenly, Mr. Santorum was leading by double digits almost everywhere, including the respected Gallup Poll. Of course, we had seen this “bubble” phenomenon frequently in previous months with virtually every challenger to Mr. Romney. Knowing Mr. Santorum’s record as congressman and senator from Pennsylvania, I immediately suggested his surge would be brief.
Even before the Michigan vote, the air was escaping Mr. Santorum’s bubble as he was finally being vetted by the media and his opponents. A poor debate performance and a number of controversial statements by him were also hastening his decline, and the last straw seemed to be his open invitation to liberal Democrats (who would not vote for him in November) to come into the Republican primary and sabotage Mr. Romney.
The Gallup Poll now has Mr. Romney back on top and rising while Mr. Santorum is falling. Mr. Gingrich is not far behind, and is also rising. Ads in Super Tuesday states where Democrats cannot vote in Republican primaries, and where unions are not popular, will likely show Mr. Santorum attempted cozying up to union members in Michigan. Mr. Gingrich, almost tied by Mr. Santorum in Georgia only a few days ago, has now opened up a double digit lead in his “home” state (Mr. Gingrich was born and grew up in Pennsylvania, but no one is suggesting that he “must” win the Keystone State), and Mr. Romney is poised to overtake Mr. Santorum for second place there. Mr. Santorum had been doing well in several Super Tuesday states before Arizona and Michigan, but, as in the national Gallup Poll, that was then. With limited cash resources, a hastily assembled organization in most Super Tuesday states (and beyond), and his surge rapidly deflating, how is Mr. Santorum going to perform now with less than a week to go?
_________________________________________________________________________
-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:04 pm
If Romney gets Ohio this thing is over.
Wheres Smackdaddy been lately?
February 29th, 2012 at 9:05 pm
Safe Romney:
MA
VT
VA
ID
Safe Santorum:
OK
Safe Gingrich:
GA
Tossup:
OH – between Mitt and Sant
TN – between Mitt and Sant
ND – between Mitt, Sant, and Paul
AK – between Mitt, Sant, and Paul
February 29th, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Why isn’t the fact that Romney also won Wyoming not being mentioned in the media? Mitt didn’t go 2-0 yesterday, he went 3-0.
http://www.ksat.com/news/politics/CNN-projects-Romney-win-in-Wyoming-caucuses/-/2567674/9148660/-/q84oa1/-/index.html
February 29th, 2012 at 9:10 pm
“Why isn’t the fact that Romney also won Wyoming not being mentioned in the media? Mitt didn’t go 2-0 yesterday, he went 3-0.”
Two reasons:
1) The “caucuses” didn’t finish until today
2) These were non-binding, no-delegate straw polls. Delegates are selected entirely between county and state conventions later on next month.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:13 pm
4,
Missouri was non-binding too, and the media made a big deal about Santorum winning there.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Mass Conservative,
I agree with just about everything you posted with the exception of Oklahoma, I know some polls have shown Santorum way ahead there, but polls have also showed him way ahead in TN and OH, those were big time outliers and I look for Romney to compete well there, he was leading in most state polls there before Feb.7th, if not he will get a close 2nd.
The fact that alot of people are overlooking however is that Romney will be at least 1st or 2nd in EVERY Super Tuesday Contest! I don’t think any other candidates can say that, Mitt will get alot of delegates come Super Tuesday.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:16 pm
How the hell can Santorum claim victory in Michigan when Romney is declared the winner?
February 29th, 2012 at 9:17 pm
I agree with #6:
If Santorum could possibly lose Tennessee, he could possibly lose OK.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:18 pm
Were there really 28000 to 43000 Democrats (your numbers) who voted Santorum just to pre-emptively defeat Romney? Call me a skeptic on those numbers…
February 29th, 2012 at 9:19 pm
4
This sounds like Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado all over again but without the media attention..hmmm…double standard, anyone?
Mitt has now won FOUR STATES IN A ROW, headed for a fifth, and a big Super Tuesday. But, hey, let’s just keep it going. After Mitt gets 6-7 out of 10 on Tuesday,.hopefully that changes.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:20 pm
8,
If Santorum loses both of those states, does that favor more Mitt or Newt to win those states?
February 29th, 2012 at 9:24 pm
“If Santorum loses both of those states, does that favor more Mitt or Newt to win those states?”
Ask me Sunday.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:24 pm
7
The sad thing is the media, including conservatives, are letting him walk with this stupid talking point. Well, if that’s a tie, so was Iowa, Tricky Rick! And Mitt didn’t ask ultra liberal Obama and union supporters to help him get a single delegate!
I hate this double standard, it’s insane. Romney WON MICHIGAN COMFORTABLY, ESPECIALLY AMONG REPUBLICANS!!! TRICKY RICK WHORES HIMSELF TO MICHAEL MOORE! Why isn’t this emphasized?!
February 29th, 2012 at 9:25 pm
9 I honk CNN said around 5 % of santys support was Dems
February 29th, 2012 at 9:26 pm
2. conservative TN where Sant is has a comfortable lead is pretty safe for him. otherwise, I pretty much agree.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:26 pm
14. Honk = think (in Chinese)
February 29th, 2012 at 9:27 pm
4 Yet Missouri was reported on.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:27 pm
13 glw,
You think that’s bad, get this. Santorum, Newt and their followers, since niether of them are on the ballot in Virginia, are urging voters in that state to vote for Ron Paul to thwart or undermine and diminish Romney’s apparent victory in that state.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Nevermind, someone beat me to it.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:28 pm
12 Matt Kilburn,
What happens on Sunday?
February 29th, 2012 at 9:29 pm
One of the big problems for Santorum, is since he’s fallin further and further behind, if he ever does surge and maintain that surge, it will have to be huge. He’ll have to be more dominant in the national polls than Romney has been to catch up. The longer it takes for him to really take off, the more better he’ll have to do.
I just don’t see it happening.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:32 pm
The ABRs will see the writing on the wall after Tuesday as they see no way to win enough deligates.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:36 pm
13 – That will never work. Virginians won’t fall for it, and it will just make them look like petty haters.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Oops … 23 was for 18 not 13.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Ozzy,
He means wait until he sees how the poll numbers pan out over the next 4 days, but I will tell you now.
The answer is Mitt Romney!
February 29th, 2012 at 9:44 pm
23 Will,
But when it comes to their feelings & thoughts about Mitt, Newt and Santorum are petty haters.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:03 pm
26 – You are right
February 29th, 2012 at 10:10 pm
I think People, particularly Romney needs to pay more attention to Virginia because I have already heard about the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns urging their supporters to vote for Ron Paul and I don’t think a lot of the Romney supporters that would normally go out and vote in a tight race will go out to vote with everyone expecting him to win it so easily.
A loss to Paul in Virginia would be very embarrassing.
I also think that Tennessee can be added to the safe category for Santorum.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:11 pm
18. Sorry, just saw you said pretty much the same thing.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:14 pm
Ozzy Says:
February 29th, 2012 at 9:16 pm
How the hell can Santorum claim victory in Michigan when Romney is declared the winner?
Easy, he’s delusional, a loser, and in way over his head.
I could not stop laughing when he said Michigan looked in all the candidates hearts and voted…. and the he loves them back.
What an as*hat!!! Very embarassing because everyone was obviously thinking they loved someone more… ROMNEY@!!!!!
Where is old fart Rupert Murdoch??? Why no nimble fingered 80 year old’s tweets about Santo losing…game over… like the wise old prophet thus spoke about Romney????
Epic fail for all the talking bobble heads on the right… we are taking back the party from all the nabobs of negativity!!!
February 29th, 2012 at 10:16 pm
21. Plus he’s broke and going deeper into the hole.
Very foolish move to go Dumbocrat with his robocalls…just WOW…the man is a one man band that is GAFFETASTIC….
February 29th, 2012 at 10:18 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ? @ppppolls
Santorum with a very modest lead over Romney on 1st night of NC poll, good sign for Mitt if he’s competitive here
February 29th, 2012 at 10:19 pm
28 I don’t think that will be much more effective than when Santorum tried to get the Democrats to vote for him.
The interesting thing about Super Tuesday is it will be a showdown between Fox News and the republican party. Fox News will be the only multi-state game Santorum really has going on, and that will be up against Romney’s surrogates and donors.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:20 pm
13. Because everyone knows Romney wins this… and they can’t crank ad revenues on foregone conclusions.
I remember back at CPAC when Romney got out.. and I was shocked… looking back I see he did the right thing and was very logical about it.
the Contards at the RNC wanted a longer, drawn out primary… and voila… we have it…
After Romney takes the majority of Super Tuesday states the money and meaning behind Santo and Newt will bleed away. There whole thing is the anti Romney, and as Mitt showed last night the Pro Romney’s are taking the Not Romney’s handily.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:20 pm
Wait a second. Are you saying Romney won Michigan? I just stanty pants saying he clearly won on Fox. How can this be?
February 29th, 2012 at 10:21 pm
Oooops.. their whole thing
bushed after last night… to bed
February 29th, 2012 at 10:23 pm
Yep. Who needs fundraising when you have the top rated cable news network in your back pocket? They should have to disclose thenvalue of their contributions in kind to the Santorum campaign.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:23 pm
Question for you all. How much money do Santo gingo and
Mitt have available to spend in the next 7 days.
That will be a big deal here.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:26 pm
33. Maybe so, but If I were a Gingrich or Santorum supporter in Virginia I would be pretty pissed that I couldn’t vote for my candidate (candidates fault or not) and that would make me more likely to go out and vote for Paul just to stop Romney from winning.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:28 pm
39
They should be pissed at there candidate for not doing what it takes to get on the ballot like Paul and Romney.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:29 pm
who has any Washington poll?
February 29th, 2012 at 10:32 pm
That Virginia plan is retarded. Can dems even vote there? Will a big voice come out and say it’s a treacherous path inviting dems to help choose our party’s nominee?
Also, can somebody please come out and tell Santorum he LOST Michigan, both by popular vote and moreso among REPUBLICANS and that his robocall was not only underhanded but hypocritical given his objection to dems even getting the right to vote in an open primary let alone getting encouraged by a candidate to do so?
Dick morris said it right on Hannity tonight, “Obama has endorsed Santorum because that’s who he’d prefer to run against”.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:34 pm
40. I think that would having gotten over the fact that there “candidate” failed to get on the ballot or they wouldn’t be a Gingrich or Santorum supporter, so there still going to go out and vote against Romney.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Ohio is now to Santorum like Michigan was to Romney.
The other states really don’t matter to Santorum because his candidacy ends on Super Tuesday if he loses Ohio to Romney. Mitt’s campaign is well aware of this, and it makes sense anyway to spend a lot of resources in such a key battleground state.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:42 pm
39 – You are assuming there are a lot of Santorum and Newt backers in Virginia. Seeing as how they couldn’t get on the ballot, that is at least an open question.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:44 pm
44
What would the media have said if Romney lost NH? He’d have been done.
Well, it follows then, that if Santorum loses Ohio, he should be done.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:46 pm
The idea that there are enough protest votes in Virginia to beat Mitt is silly. The polls have consistently shown that there is only about 10-15% of the voters in the GOP that are actively trying to beat Romney. Very few Virginians are going to go out of their way to vote for Paul in order to protest Mitt. There is nothing to worry about there at all.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:46 pm
44
This narrative hasn’t got hold, yet, but is so true. If Santorum can’t win Ohio…where does he win and what is his path? Newt can win all the south he wants, it’s all proportional anyway. WTA states are almost all for Mitt.
I hope without hope the media hold Santorum to the same intensity regarding Ohio as they did Romney and Michigan.
I actually think Mitt can pull off Ohio, and if he does, he wraps it up…in April.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:49 pm
45 What would the sales pitch be? I know I couldn’t get you to sign a piece of paper, but now I want you to go out of your way to vote for a candidate who you don’t support to stop another candidate?
February 29th, 2012 at 10:50 pm
So Santorum believes that if he doesn’t like what the majority of GOP will
vote for he will run to the Dems to try stop them. Hmm he certainly doesn’t
know how to take one for the team. If he ever got the nomination as a result
of that type of conduct I one laugh at him for telling me since I am a REP.
i must back the party nominee.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:52 pm
“This narrative hasn’t got hold, yet, but is so true. If Santorum can’t win Ohio…where does he win and what is his path?”
Pennsylvania?
February 29th, 2012 at 10:53 pm
I am from NC. Mitt will win NC. NC is no SC. Majority of Republicans are not right wing nuts. NC went Obama in 2008 and will be a swing state along with VA.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:54 pm
#48 most winner take all states are like Michigan was, winner take all by district, and we saw how they ended up. Even though Romney won by more than 3 points, Santorum got as many or more delegates.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:54 pm
I lived in NC in Winston-Salem. Nice place, although being northern didn’t help with some folks. I could see Mitt winning there, though. There’s some money on the eastern side of the state and enough urban centers to haul in the votes.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:58 pm
I saw on here Santy does not have delegates in Tenn.
So what would occur if he did win the vote or some CD’s ?
February 29th, 2012 at 11:00 pm
“I actually think Mitt can pull off Ohio, and if he does, he wraps it up…in April.”
Only five states vote in April on the same day, the 24th. New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. If Santorum is still in the race, Romney sweeps all but PA, if Santo is out, Romneys take all five states. Then again, what’s the likelihood of Santo losing his home state to Mitt? Maybe if Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey endorse Romney, that might help. Since Santo supported Specter over Toomey, I’m sure Toomey will repay the favor by supporting Mitt over Santo.
February 29th, 2012 at 11:01 pm
It will be interesting to see Gallup numbers tomorrow.
Mitt had a good night last night in Gallup. Grinch actually out polled Santy panties last night in Gallup tracking according to my calculations.
TN will be tough for Romney. Gingrich will need to rise and take some of Santies votes and maybe Mitt can pull out a victory in a 3-way race. I still think Santy is heavy favorite, unless Grinch gets hot.
OK – not Mitt territory.. not going to win here.
GA – I am betting on 2nd place finish here.
ID – Safe for Mitt
VT – Safe for Mitt
VA – safe for Mitt
AK – ????? I would bet on Mitt… Hopefully Santy and Grinch will divide Palin nuts.
OH – Going to be close… I would bet on Mitt now … he has the mo
MA – OK.. his real home state. He will win it bigger than Newt will GA and Santy will PA
ND – Who the hell knows…. I will say Mitt, but Santy has spent a lot of time there
February 29th, 2012 at 11:01 pm
51
Pennsylvania is his path to the nomination? That’s weak, and mathematically impossible. Lol.
February 29th, 2012 at 11:03 pm
February 29th, 2012 at 11:06 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ? @ppppolls
Santorum with a very modest lead over Romney on 1st night of NC poll, good sign for Mitt if he’s competitive here
PublicPolicyPolling ? @ppppolls
Romney with a small lead on first night of our Washington poll. Represents big change from 2 weeks ago, reflecting national shift
February 29th, 2012 at 11:07 pm
58,
I’m not saying it’s his path to the nomination, just what state he could count on to win. After Super Tuesday, if Mitt does win the majority of the states, all Newt and Santo can do is be mischief makers for Mitt.
February 29th, 2012 at 11:08 pm
NC – Mitt will carry urban areas of Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, Ashville, Wilmington, Greensboro big
He will probably win Fayetteville, Greenville and Winston-Salem but it will be close
Santy and Grinch will split rural voters in Piedmont and Eastern NC
Grinch and Romeny will dominate Western NC
February 29th, 2012 at 11:10 pm
LOL, Santorum is still in 3rd in popular vote.
February 29th, 2012 at 11:11 pm
It’s in the bag for Mitt.
Gingrich and Santorum are both spent forces, both weakened to the point where they are like a patient to cannot resist an invasion of a foreign virus.
February 29th, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Again in 1980, Reagan made a big push to increase his support from union members. There are union members out there that do not agree with their unions. There is no reason that Santorum shouldn’t go after them. They tend to be more socially conservative. Just because the union bosses tried to intercede I don’t see how that is Santorum’s fault. I don’t see any pictures of him meeting union bosses.
Ohio may be a tougher nut for Romney to crack. Romney has the same flaws that he had in Michigan and no Oakland County to bail him out. That accounted for over half of his margin of victory. The fact is that Romney should have had a better showing in Michigan. Yet he didn’t because he lost the
voters who make under $50,000 a year by a large margin.
February 29th, 2012 at 11:14 pm
51, 53
51- if Santorum doesn’t win Ohio, he has no momentum and will evaporate by Pennsylvania. Also, he will have no path by then.
53- Santorum got the same number, not more. Also, many of the big states are WTA by congressional district, but they’re in heavy Mitt territory. He will pummel whoever is left. I’m pretty sure a few of them are also true WTA. Also, can we call Iowa a victory for Mitt now with santorum criteria? Especially since Mitt didn’t roborick call michael Moore to hail him out.
February 29th, 2012 at 11:19 pm
65
Ugh…for the thousandth time: Santorum wasn’t recruiting any dems to his cause or appealing to union workers. Go read/listen to the robo call. He saw he was going to lose the repubs HANDILY to Romney and got desperate and sent out a union sounding call to vote AGAINST Mitt, not for Santorum’s cause. It was a bald faced lie. Hr tried to sneak it in like the mischief dems. repubs got word, and amongst fellow republicans, Mitt DESTROYED Santorum.
Guess what? In Ohio? No mischief.
February 29th, 2012 at 11:20 pm
PPP Poll of Washington tonight shows Mitt leading.
Intrade is moving in Mitt’s favor for WA
February 29th, 2012 at 11:21 pm
67 glw,
Is Ohio a closed primary? And how many states on Super Tuesday are open primaries/caucuses and how many aren’t?
February 29th, 2012 at 11:23 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ? @ppppolls
Romney with a small lead on first night of our Washington poll. Represents big change from 2 weeks ago, reflecting national shift
very very good
February 29th, 2012 at 11:33 pm
69
Ohio is closed, not sure about declared independents, though.
I heard 7 are open, so could be mischief elsewhere. I don’t see Massachusetts, Virginia, Vermont, or Idaho being tough for Mitt. Alaska, ND, Ohio are easily within reach. Tennessee and Georgia will be interesting. Ok is all Santorum’s.
February 29th, 2012 at 11:34 pm
62 – Correct. North Carolina is a lot more urban than South Carolina. Mitt always does well in the cities. The number of cities will also help Mitt in Ohio. It is a very urban/suburban state.
February 29th, 2012 at 11:36 pm
65 – That is simply not the truth, and I’m guessing you know that. Santorum was not going after Reagan democrats. He made no appeal to union workers. He targeted the solid left in order to “send a message” to Mitt.
February 29th, 2012 at 11:57 pm
PPP has the Mormon vote in WA at 15%. Good sign for mitt.
March 1st, 2012 at 12:02 am
If the media says ROmney is losing, but in reality he is winning….who’s right?
March 1st, 2012 at 12:03 am
Are the dems donating money to Santorum too, or just voting for him?
March 1st, 2012 at 12:04 am
Mmmm…chocolate cookies.
March 1st, 2012 at 12:18 am
75 — The Mormon vote in WA is at 15%. That’s pretty good since WA’s Mormon population is about 4 – 5%. Of course, if Santorum loses WA he will just blame it on the Mormons.
March 1st, 2012 at 12:21 am
mitt will win WA. If PPP has him with a slight lead, just add 4-6%. It seems to be the case with all of their polls
March 1st, 2012 at 12:22 am
Mitt get WY in 02-29-2012. Is it true? Not straw poll?
March 1st, 2012 at 1:19 am
Even if Tricky Ricky does win Tennessee, it won’t serve him well when the trip to Tampa comes around. He has not submit any name of a delegate for any district. This means that the state Republican Party Committee will pick delegates for him. Those delegates are not loyal to Santorum. They may have to cast the first ballot for him, but thereafter, they can go for anybody else. It depends on who are on this committee. They could be more of Newt supporters than they are for Santorum.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:35 am
Yeah, but for every one of these hardcore fans, there are several leaner, for whom the failure of getting on ballot got this kind of smart and healthy reaction:
“Sorry but you failed to get on the ballot, if you weren’t organized enough to get on the ballot when Romney and Paul got on the ballot, last time I voted 5 people were organized enough to get on the ballot, if you are that unorganized, you really have no business in the White House”
March 1st, 2012 at 2:48 am
82– looks increasingly like Romney will win Washington.
I suspect the switch PPP is seeing is folks realizing what we knew all along : Santorum can’t beat Obama.
Are Washingtonians known to give importance to electability?
All this stuff on state and religion and contraception and Democrats in Michigan is diminishing Santorum ‘s aura.
Trend we’re seeing in Gallup actualized in Washington.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:51 am
Im long Romney to win Washington : 1000 shares, at 45% average .
March 1st, 2012 at 3:03 am
Massachusetts is proportional, but has a 15% threshold. The last poll before the Michigan primary had Romney with a 50 point LEAD in Massachusetts against Santorum at 16%. If Romney keeps Santorum below 15% in MA, Massachusetts becomes winner take all.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:04 am
Why the race will drag on. Super Tuesday won’t be decisive :
http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/29/opinion/super-tuesday/index.html
March 1st, 2012 at 3:07 am
McCain won Washington caucus in 2008.
Who’s playing mccain’s role now? Romney!
March 1st, 2012 at 3:08 am
86
CNN is full of shit. There will be no money for the other candidates after Super Tuesday, especially if the ABRs lose Ohio.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:22 am
Ohio’s median income is almost $150 above Michigan’s, mean income of Ohio is closer to $800 dollar higher than in Michigan.
The proportion of people making over $100k in 2008 Ohio Republican primary was just 1 point less than in Michigan that year and this was long after the candidate doing best among them, Romney, had suspended his campaign.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:24 am
88– No. Article is exactly right imo. Only Romney can reach 1144 delegates. But it will take time.
Best comparison is Democratic Super Tuesday of 2008. Split decision.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:25 am
http://www.MittRomney.com/states/Washington
March 1st, 2012 at 3:30 am
I meant of 1988, when dukakis and gore and Jackson split votes regionally
March 1st, 2012 at 4:12 am
Katechon, Washington was a primary in 2008. They switched to a caucus this time, so it’s new territory.
Last time, Mitt was leading in the polls there until Super Tuesday (lost California) and he dropped out. His name was still on the ballot though and lots of people voted for him anyway.
There is some anti-Mormon fervor there, but most people are moderate (meaning fiscally conservative but libertarian when it comes to SoCon values with a strong vein of compasionate conservative).
Since it’s a caucus, the Paul people are working it hard. Paul himself has been there many times while Romney was battling in Michigan and some before then. There should also be a natural following for Santorum. Of course, we can expect Mitt to be strong there both for his appeal and for his organization. Newt probably will crash and burn there unless the RomNots go into panic mode and jump the SS Santy for the Newtanic…
March 1st, 2012 at 4:32 am
Actually there was a caucus in 2008, 18 delegates were allocated in 2008 caucuses and 19 were allocated in 2008 primary.
Getting 15.45% in a caucus few days after you suspended campaign and endorsed some one else is pretty good share of vote. The turnout relative to population was half of the Maine caucus turnout though, so I guess most people didn’t know even then that half of the delegates are allocated in primary, or it could be indication that it was going to go even more heavily Romney but most of those who wanted to vote for Romney stayed home. Anyway it being a morning caucus is probably going to hurt Paul. Nevada was made Saturday morning caucus this year rather than weekday evening, and Paul didn’t improve his performance anywhere near of what he improved in IA, MN and ME.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Republican_caucuses_and_primary,_2008
96% of precincts reporting[1]
Candidate State Delegate Percentage Delegates Counties Carries
John McCain 3,228 25.9% 16 11
Mike Huckabee 2,959 23.52% 8 11
Ron Paul 2,740 21.64% 5 9
Mitt Romney 1,903 15.45% 0 4
Uncommitted 1,662 13.49% 0 2
Total 12,320 100% 29
March 1st, 2012 at 4:35 am
93– I was referring to the caucus Jerald.
Washington was one caucus McCain won, amidst controversies, in 2008.
March 1st, 2012 at 4:37 am
That was close 3 way race!
March 1st, 2012 at 4:48 am
Yeah, but 12.3k turnout for state of 6.8 million people, 13th most populous state, makes harder to make too many conclusions of that, that turnout is less than half of Maine caucus turnout this year and and half of Wyoming caucus turnout this when compared to population.
March 1st, 2012 at 4:50 am
Go Mitt – win Washington State!
Are CNN and Fox News going to cover the state or the silly Huckabee forum?
March 1st, 2012 at 5:11 am
Any folks with clues regarding the strength if Mitt’s organization in Washington?
March 1st, 2012 at 6:03 am
John king thinks Ron will win Washington caucus!
http://agoratelegraph.com/2012/03/01/cnn-projects-ron-paul-to-win-washington-caucus-aired-2-28-12-mp4/
March 1st, 2012 at 7:37 am
Romney will win AK also. Santorum hasnt gotten on 3 CD ballots in Tenn. Oklahoma will have some delegates. As to WA, Paul’s support has been sup par in nearly every state thus far. and I suspect WA will also under produce.
Mitt wins 5 and perhaps 6 states (and 150 delegates) Tuesday and the race is finally over.
March 1st, 2012 at 7:58 am
Mittman… Romney has 7+ million and Santo and Gingrich have under one million each. BOTH are carrying heavy debts too. Gingrich is almost 1.5 million in the hole, and Santo is 500K in the red.
Just sent more moola to Romney last night too!!!
He’ll get a nice upswing in donations, wouldn’t be surprised to see him hitting 1 million a day up and through Super Tuesday.
Also, Romney is holding some very high dollar fund raisers. Now that the ‘big boys’ see that the race has been determined, just not concluded, expect to see him net 500K to 1.5 million at different high dollar fundraisers over the next month.
Let’s all get on his site and giving him the mothers milk of politics……………….stinkin’ cash
March 1st, 2012 at 8:20 am
Thanks Fig Newton..
Wasn’t there a commercial that said that?
April 19th, 2012 at 6:56 pm
Can I see number of downloads for commercial apps?