No surprise PPP is already saying the Michigan race is close, I think its obvious that Romney is pulling away with this thing, hopefully there will be more polls out tomorrow showing what Romney’s true lead in Michigan is
doubt PPP at your own peril. And just because they said it’s close doesn’t mean they don’t show Romney leading, which would mean things are moving in his direction. I predict that if PPP says Romney is ahead in a close race you will scream the results from the rooftops and declare … if PPP has Romney slightly ahead that means he’s probably 50 ahead! or some such nonsense. And if they show Santorum ahead you will say they are garbage and then dig as deep as you can to find some minor issue with the internals that you can use to pacify yourself till the next poll, at which time you will repeat the same actions
I have no doubt they will show Romney ahead, but the general concensus is that Romney is pulling away in MI and is Dominating in AZ, if they only show Romney up 2 or 3 then obviously they are underpolling his support, that’s all I’m saying
You have a consistent pattern of denying the existence of phenomena that you dislike. PPP has indeed underpolled Romney consistently, especially in primary contests as opposed to caucuses.
I personally love PPP and have made a ton of money off betting on their polls, but if you prefer to believe some hacks like “we ask america” then I sure hope your not betting money on their polls
MI PPP POLL is going to mirror the last MI RASMUSSEN Poll. After tomorrow night samples, when combined with tonight’s, PPP will show something like 40-34 for Mitt. PPP & RAS samples have been pretty close as of late when it comes to State and National polling.
I still do think Rick will out perform the last polls by a point or two in MI…but then again I could be off my rocker…as I’m sure most of you would concur.
My prediction for Florida was spot on I finished first in the contest.
My prediction for South Carolina was excellent. I finished in the top 3 in the contest.
My prediction for Iowa was in the top 15 in the contest.
My record is excellent. Doubt me at your own peril. Romney wins Michigan by at least 5.
14 – You aren’t going to go back on your word to support Mitt if he wins Michigan, are you? You seem like an honorable guy … I don’t expect that you will.
Now in this instance Romney indeed has the momentum going into Tuesday, and thus may outperform his polling. But that wont mean that the pollsters had a bias against him, it just means a lot of people are deciding in that 24 hours and many once they get to the polling booth, and the magnitude of their surge in each state is not being fully seen. So who knows, after Tuesday you may appear to be right again on the surface, but just keep what I have said in mind if the momentum shifts again moving into furture contests
Mitt did well in a hostile interview, which is something Wallace is paid to provide. The highlight was the examination of Mitt’s economic program. While the questions were hostile, Mitt was given enough time to provide the case for them.
The only thing that would have made it better would have been giving Mitt the opportunity to give a rebuttal of the Santorum plan.
#22 you need to read post 18. And if you want I can show you the numbers from every race so far this year, and prove to if anyone has been consistently underpolled it’s been Santorum. Win or lose he has outperformed his polling.
I’m not saying PPP is biased against Romney, I’m saying their methodology skews the results against him often. I’d suggest most of this results from the fact that their surveys are automated and impatient busy folks and moderates tend not to follow through with surveys like those.
They overpolled Ron Paul in Iowa. Certainly cannot forget that one.
Uh, what is PPP’s methodology again? Meybe they need to revise it. SurveyUSA seems to have good polling. They have been making a point of including cell phones and landlines to get better results. They’ve been posting on that constantly, lately.
No response to 19 from Smack? He better get his hits on Mitt in over the next cople days, because he is going to have to change tunes after Tuesday. Unless he goes back on his word, of course.
Well, yeah. Caucuses are harder because people are more prone to change their minds. And Exit polls are more accurate than entrance polls. The entrance polls in Iowa had Romney and Paul tied and Santorum at 18. Obviously not what happened.
Well I am glad that these are primaries, not caucuses.
no, and I am not even a Santorum supporter. But I can see the appeal he might have to a blue collar factory type worker from the midwest. Whenever Santorums not talking about God he is talking about manufactoring, it’s sort of his niche
The so-called Reagan Democrats didn’t even come out for Bush…who was more likeable than Santorum. So they certainly will not come out for Ricky, the santorum.
You guys focus to much on the exact numbers, instead of looking at the relationship between the leaders and who is moving up and who is moving down. In Michigan Romney seems to be moving up and Santorum down.. so Romney will probably outperform his polling, but it won’t be because PPP was biased against Romney, it will be because the race is highly volatile and many people are making up their minds in the last 24 hours or on their way to the polls. I still think this race is going to be close, especially because I think many of Newt’s supporters will switch to Santorum at the last minute to try and deny Romney a victory in Michigan.
Something funny to share…I think I have seen 1 or 2 of the movies that have been up for Academy Awards and I have correctly predicted the winners based on which film looks most liberal in the clips they show. It has been a long time since Hollywood put out something really good.
And that group, according to PPP is 70/20 of the electorate of the state, so the vast majority. So if Romney is beating Santorum there, he will definitely win the state.
Mitt Romney’s taken a small lead over Rick Santorum in PPP’s newest Michigan poll. He’s at 39% to 37% for Santorum, 13% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich. Compared to a week ago Romney’s gained 6 points, while Santorum’s just stayed in place.
If this is true: “Story of the GOP race: 2 weeks ago Santorum’s net fav was 34 pts better than Romney’s in MI. Now Romney’s is 5 pts better than Santorum” Santorum can not hold 37%
Holy frijoles, that looks close. All this chatter about Romney + 5 or more is seriously freaking my “don’t tempt fate, or count chickens be hatching” ethic out. Stop! Dancing on the undug grave of the undead has unforeseeable consequences!
And humility, even in the face of an impending blow out is endearing, whereas snobbishness is assailable as a character flaw.
Two comments. One, no one is buying Romney’s argument about the bailout.
Two, how is it that the favs of these candidates are so susceptible to negative
ads. On MTP they said Romney’s unfavs in the purple swing states were up
20 pts in a matter of weeks.
Romney was absolutely right about the bailout….and was proven right….that’s what was done, in conjunction with forking over mass quantities of taxpayer money, screwing the bond holders and the share holders, and giving it to the Union thugs.
Romney was a top student in getting a Juris Doctorate at Harvard.
The Gipper, himself, had a bit of a different take on them Mormos, too!-
“Ronald Reagan truly admired the Latter-day Saints. His administration included more members of the Church than any other American president, ever. Three of us, David Fischer, Gregory Newell and I, served on his personal White House staff. Richard Wirthlin was his chief strategist. Ted Bell served as Secretary of Education, Angela Buchanan was Treasurer, Rex Lee was Solicitor General. His White House included Roger Porter, Brent Scowcroft, Richard Beal, Blake Parish, Jon Huntsman Jr., Dodie Borup and Rocky Kuonen, and there were many other Latter-day Saints throughout his Administration. President Thomas S. Monson served on a Presidential Commission on Volunteerism. Others were ambassadors. LDS senators and representatives were held in special regard, and the Tabernacle Choir was his special inaugural guest.” -Stephen M. Studdert, Special Assistant to President Reagan
“Yeah, but Reagan is a… ”
Go ahead, take one for the team.
I don’t care whatever anyone says, all I know that Romney is the best candidate and the best choice to be President. None of your opinion will change this fact.
February 26th, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Romney and sons rescue people drowning on a sinking boat http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/08/us/massachusetts-governor-helps-rescue-boaters.html
February 26th, 2012 at 7:40 pm
No surprise PPP is already saying the Michigan race is close, I think its obvious that Romney is pulling away with this thing, hopefully there will be more polls out tomorrow showing what Romney’s true lead in Michigan is
February 26th, 2012 at 7:49 pm
seriously #2 you need to leave the race42012 Romney bubble sometimes
February 26th, 2012 at 7:50 pm
2 I think PPP’s going to look stupid on Wednesday.
February 26th, 2012 at 7:53 pm
doubt PPP at your own peril. And just because they said it’s close doesn’t mean they don’t show Romney leading, which would mean things are moving in his direction. I predict that if PPP says Romney is ahead in a close race you will scream the results from the rooftops and declare … if PPP has Romney slightly ahead that means he’s probably 50 ahead! or some such nonsense. And if they show Santorum ahead you will say they are garbage and then dig as deep as you can to find some minor issue with the internals that you can use to pacify yourself till the next poll, at which time you will repeat the same actions
February 26th, 2012 at 7:54 pm
then if Romney loses Michigan you will call everyone in Michigan an idiot, bigot,ect
February 26th, 2012 at 7:58 pm
Killjoy, just a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:00 pm
5 – Do you disagree with the factual statement that PPP has under polled Romney all year? I hope not. That would be embarrassing.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Romney will win Michigan unless more democrats turn out and vote for Santorum Mr. Take our liberties away for the team
February 26th, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Killjoy,
I have no doubt they will show Romney ahead, but the general concensus is that Romney is pulling away in MI and is Dominating in AZ, if they only show Romney up 2 or 3 then obviously they are underpolling his support, that’s all I’m saying
February 26th, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Killjoy,
You have a consistent pattern of denying the existence of phenomena that you dislike. PPP has indeed underpolled Romney consistently, especially in primary contests as opposed to caucuses.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:02 pm
I personally love PPP and have made a ton of money off betting on their polls, but if you prefer to believe some hacks like “we ask america” then I sure hope your not betting money on their polls
February 26th, 2012 at 8:05 pm
The guy is a shining star. Fix it, baby.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:05 pm
MI PPP POLL is going to mirror the last MI RASMUSSEN Poll. After tomorrow night samples, when combined with tonight’s, PPP will show something like 40-34 for Mitt. PPP & RAS samples have been pretty close as of late when it comes to State and National polling.
I still do think Rick will out perform the last polls by a point or two in MI…but then again I could be off my rocker…as I’m sure most of you would concur.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:07 pm
#11
ROFL
here is the reality
Final PPP Colorado Romney 37% result 34.9%
Final PPP Minnesota Romney 24% result 17%
Final PPP Misouri Romney 32% result 25%
you live in an alternate dimention
February 26th, 2012 at 8:08 pm
Sometimes people are paranoid for no reason.
Then again sometimes there is a reason and that paranoia is actually justified.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:10 pm
I just so impressed at how Romney handles this interviewers. I would be rolling eyes all over and losing my temper over these repetitive questions.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:11 pm
15
PPP Had Romney leading by 8 in Florida.
He won by 14.
My prediction for Florida was spot on I finished first in the contest.
My prediction for South Carolina was excellent. I finished in the top 3 in the contest.
My prediction for Iowa was in the top 15 in the contest.
My record is excellent. Doubt me at your own peril. Romney wins Michigan by at least 5.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:13 pm
14 – You aren’t going to go back on your word to support Mitt if he wins Michigan, are you? You seem like an honorable guy … I don’t expect that you will.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:17 pm
It just makes me mad when people flat out lie and say things like “PPP has indeed underpolled Romney consistently” which is just flat out wrong.
What has really been happening is that the winner with the last minute momentum has been underpolled in every race.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:18 pm
20
Just watch. Romney by at least 5 on Tuesday, no matter what PPP says. Perhaps he will win by as many as 8 or 9.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:18 pm
I can’t believe how bad PPP has been this year! They consistently underpoll Romney. It is sickening.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Now in this instance Romney indeed has the momentum going into Tuesday, and thus may outperform his polling. But that wont mean that the pollsters had a bias against him, it just means a lot of people are deciding in that 24 hours and many once they get to the polling booth, and the magnitude of their surge in each state is not being fully seen. So who knows, after Tuesday you may appear to be right again on the surface, but just keep what I have said in mind if the momentum shifts again moving into furture contests
February 26th, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Mitt did well in a hostile interview, which is something Wallace is paid to provide. The highlight was the examination of Mitt’s economic program. While the questions were hostile, Mitt was given enough time to provide the case for them.
The only thing that would have made it better would have been giving Mitt the opportunity to give a rebuttal of the Santorum plan.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:21 pm
#22 you need to read post 18. And if you want I can show you the numbers from every race so far this year, and prove to if anyone has been consistently underpolled it’s been Santorum. Win or lose he has outperformed his polling.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:24 pm
23
I’m not saying PPP is biased against Romney, I’m saying their methodology skews the results against him often. I’d suggest most of this results from the fact that their surveys are automated and impatient busy folks and moderates tend not to follow through with surveys like those.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:25 pm
25.
Maybe we can compromise.
PPP overestimated Romney in Colorado, and underpolled him in Florida. There, let’s just say Public Policy Polling is a crappy pollster.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:29 pm
25. Yeah I know, but can you believe how bad PPP has been this year and how they try to stick it to Romney? It is outlandish!
February 26th, 2012 at 8:32 pm
They overpolled Ron Paul in Iowa. Certainly cannot forget that one.
Uh, what is PPP’s methodology again? Meybe they need to revise it. SurveyUSA seems to have good polling. They have been making a point of including cell phones and landlines to get better results. They’ve been posting on that constantly, lately.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:32 pm
waite 3p
February 26th, 2012 at 8:33 pm
No response to 19 from Smack? He better get his hits on Mitt in over the next cople days, because he is going to have to change tunes after Tuesday. Unless he goes back on his word, of course.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:35 pm
PPP underpolls Romney in primaries, and overpolls Romney in caucuses.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:36 pm
I love 3p
February 26th, 2012 at 8:37 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ? @ppppolls
Mitt Romney’s taken a very small lead on our new Michigan poll…full results between 10 and 10:30
February 26th, 2012 at 8:37 pm
PPP tweet
Mitt Romney’s taken a very small lead on our new Michigan poll…full results between 10 and 10:30
February 26th, 2012 at 8:39 pm
32.
Well, yeah. Caucuses are harder because people are more prone to change their minds. And Exit polls are more accurate than entrance polls. The entrance polls in Iowa had Romney and Paul tied and Santorum at 18. Obviously not what happened.
Well I am glad that these are primaries, not caucuses.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:40 pm
why we not cancel caucuses.
Caucuses is quite absurd.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:41 pm
No worries Romney will lose lots primaries in March and then you will have to find something else to complain about.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:42 pm
The only reason Santorum is still close to Romney in Michigan is because of the Democrat vote in the open primary.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:44 pm
they used to call those Reagan Democrats.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:46 pm
It’s the Reagan Democrats, Conservative Base, Evangelicals, and Tea Partiers vs. Liberals, North Eastern RINO’s, Washington insiders, and Mormons.
I know what side I want to be on.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:47 pm
Killjoy Says:
February 26th, 2012 at 8:44 pm
they used to call those Reagan Democrats.
do you really think they will vote for Santorum in the general?
February 26th, 2012 at 8:50 pm
Yes, I believe many blue collar workers would vote for Santorum
February 26th, 2012 at 8:53 pm
Killjoy Says:
February 26th, 2012 at 8:50 pm
Yes, I believe many blue collar workers would vote for Santorum
You kidding me?
February 26th, 2012 at 8:55 pm
no, and I am not even a Santorum supporter. But I can see the appeal he might have to a blue collar factory type worker from the midwest. Whenever Santorums not talking about God he is talking about manufactoring, it’s sort of his niche
February 26th, 2012 at 8:55 pm
In other news, Buddy Roemer dropped out on February 23rd.
Finally, Roemer won’t be splitting the conservative vote!
February 26th, 2012 at 8:56 pm
44.
The so-called Reagan Democrats didn’t even come out for Bush…who was more likeable than Santorum. So they certainly will not come out for Ricky, the santorum.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:58 pm
3 new very interesing tweets from PPP.
Romney leads Santorum 45-30 among the 69% that think economic issues are most important.
Santorum favors. down.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:59 pm
#47 Bush was not exactly known as the champion of the working man… I voted for Bush, but I wouldn’t say I was excited to do so.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:59 pm
48. I am sure it is much more than that. PPP has a tendency to underpoll Romney.
February 26th, 2012 at 9:00 pm
I’m PPP’ing.
Give em severe urinary hell Mitt!
February 26th, 2012 at 9:01 pm
Nostradamus that’s the best one yet. I about fell out of my chair.
February 26th, 2012 at 9:03 pm
49. Maybe your not the working man?
February 26th, 2012 at 9:05 pm
You guys focus to much on the exact numbers, instead of looking at the relationship between the leaders and who is moving up and who is moving down. In Michigan Romney seems to be moving up and Santorum down.. so Romney will probably outperform his polling, but it won’t be because PPP was biased against Romney, it will be because the race is highly volatile and many people are making up their minds in the last 24 hours or on their way to the polls. I still think this race is going to be close, especially because I think many of Newt’s supporters will switch to Santorum at the last minute to try and deny Romney a victory in Michigan.
February 26th, 2012 at 9:05 pm
Is is just me, or do these kinds of detailed, proding discussions never happen with the other candidates, especially on FOX News?
February 26th, 2012 at 9:06 pm
51
LOL!
February 26th, 2012 at 9:09 pm
51.
ROFLMAO!!!!!!!
February 26th, 2012 at 9:11 pm
Something funny to share…I think I have seen 1 or 2 of the movies that have been up for Academy Awards and I have correctly predicted the winners based on which film looks most liberal in the clips they show. It has been a long time since Hollywood put out something really good.
February 26th, 2012 at 9:11 pm
48.
And that group, according to PPP is 70/20 of the electorate of the state, so the vast majority. So if Romney is beating Santorum there, he will definitely win the state.
February 26th, 2012 at 9:16 pm
PublicPolicyPolling
? @ppppolls
Follow
Story of the GOP race: 2 weeks ago Santorum’s net fav was 34 pts better than Romney’s in MI. Now Romney’s is 5 pts better than Santorum
February 26th, 2012 at 9:17 pm
Darkness has enveloped Kalamazoo Michigan but the townfolk are in the streets chanting;
“We love you Cadillac Mitt”
February 26th, 2012 at 9:25 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ? @ppppolls
Our new Michigan poll: Romney 39, Santorum 37, Paul 13, Gingrich 9
February 26th, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Mitt Romney’s taken a small lead over Rick Santorum in PPP’s newest Michigan poll. He’s at 39% to 37% for Santorum, 13% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich. Compared to a week ago Romney’s gained 6 points, while Santorum’s just stayed in place.
February 26th, 2012 at 9:28 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ? @ppppolls
In last week Santorum’s favorability in MI has dropped from +44 (67/23) to just +15 (54/39):
===================================
Know what this suggests to me? Undecideds will break to Mitt instead of him.
February 26th, 2012 at 9:28 pm
I think ppp has underestimated Mitt in MI
February 26th, 2012 at 9:28 pm
62. It would be nice to see Mitt up 7-8+ by the vote Tuesday.
February 26th, 2012 at 9:32 pm
ppp has overestimated Santorum in MI
If this is true: “Story of the GOP race: 2 weeks ago Santorum’s net fav was 34 pts better than Romney’s in MI. Now Romney’s is 5 pts better than Santorum” Santorum can not hold 37%
February 26th, 2012 at 9:32 pm
This was one of Mitt’s better interviews. He came across as confident,competent, articulate and well informed.
Should give him a little boost on Tues.
February 26th, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Marist poll showed 48% of vote in early. In that group Mitt was up 50%- 26%.So if slightly ahead now, should win by 5-7%.
February 26th, 2012 at 9:41 pm
Holy frijoles, that looks close. All this chatter about Romney + 5 or more is seriously freaking my “don’t tempt fate, or count chickens be hatching” ethic out. Stop! Dancing on the undug grave of the undead has unforeseeable consequences!
And humility, even in the face of an impending blow out is endearing, whereas snobbishness is assailable as a character flaw.
I want Tuesday to come and go already.
February 26th, 2012 at 9:42 pm
It seems that the polls have underestimated the winner, every time, at least in primaries.
IA Santorum RCP avg 16.3 Final 24.6
NH Romney RCP avg 37.7 Final 39.6
SC Gingrich RCP avg 33.5 Final 40.4
FL Romney RCP avg 41.6 Final 46.4
I think that is partially because undecideds want to vote for who they perceive as the winner.
February 26th, 2012 at 9:45 pm
71
I think it’s less that they want to vote for the winner, and more that they get swept up in the momentum that is carrying the winner to victory.
February 26th, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Two comments. One, no one is buying Romney’s argument about the bailout.
Two, how is it that the favs of these candidates are so susceptible to negative
ads. On MTP they said Romney’s unfavs in the purple swing states were up
20 pts in a matter of weeks.
February 26th, 2012 at 10:03 pm
I think a lot of people are just refusing to tell pollsters who they are voting for, and saying they are undecided.
February 26th, 2012 at 10:04 pm
73 – What is there not to buy?
February 26th, 2012 at 10:38 pm
73
Hey buddy, are you aware that PPP has Romney leading Santorum among union members by double digits?
February 26th, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Romney was absolutely right about the bailout….and was proven right….that’s what was done, in conjunction with forking over mass quantities of taxpayer money, screwing the bond holders and the share holders, and giving it to the Union thugs.
Romney was a top student in getting a Juris Doctorate at Harvard.
February 26th, 2012 at 10:56 pm
We Ask America Michigan
Romney 36%
Santorum 32%
http://weaskamerica.com/2012/02/26/final-mi-az/
February 27th, 2012 at 12:09 am
Killjoy wants to Kill everyone’s joy.
February 27th, 2012 at 12:36 am
41 Killjoy- C’mon! In what world do you live in? Associating Mormons with Insiders, Liberals, and RINO’s (oh my!)
Let me help you, a bit-
Boom!
http://www.pewforum.org/Christian/Mormon/mormons-in-america-politics-society-and-morality.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125021/Mormons-Conservative-Major-Religious-Group.aspx
The Gipper, himself, had a bit of a different take on them Mormos, too!-
“Ronald Reagan truly admired the Latter-day Saints. His administration included more members of the Church than any other American president, ever. Three of us, David Fischer, Gregory Newell and I, served on his personal White House staff. Richard Wirthlin was his chief strategist. Ted Bell served as Secretary of Education, Angela Buchanan was Treasurer, Rex Lee was Solicitor General. His White House included Roger Porter, Brent Scowcroft, Richard Beal, Blake Parish, Jon Huntsman Jr., Dodie Borup and Rocky Kuonen, and there were many other Latter-day Saints throughout his Administration. President Thomas S. Monson served on a Presidential Commission on Volunteerism. Others were ambassadors. LDS senators and representatives were held in special regard, and the Tabernacle Choir was his special inaugural guest.” -Stephen M. Studdert, Special Assistant to President Reagan
“Yeah, but Reagan is a… ”
Go ahead, take one for the team.
February 27th, 2012 at 2:41 pm
I don’t care whatever anyone says, all I know that Romney is the best candidate and the best choice to be President. None of your opinion will change this fact.