ARG Arizona 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 39% [38%] (32%)
- Rick Santorum 35% [31%] (10%)
- Newt Gingrich 11% [15%] (32%)
- Ron Paul 9% [11%] (12%)
- Undecided 5% [5%] (12%)
Have Already Voted (48%)
- Mitt Romney 50%
- Rick Santorum 29%
- Newt Gingrich 13%
- Ron Paul 8%
Will Definitely/Probably Vote (52%)
- Rick Santorum 41%
- Mitt Romney 29%
- Ron Paul 10%
- Newt Gingrich 9%
- Other 2%
- Undecided 9%
Among Men (54%)
- Rick Santorum 43% [37%] (9%)
- Mitt Romney 32% [30%] (30%)
- Newt Gingrich 13% [17%] (35%)
- Ron Paul 10% [13%] (12%)
- Undecided 1% [3%] (13%)
Among Women (46%)
- Mitt Romney 47% [47%] (34%)
- Rick Santorum 26% [24%] (11%)
- Newt Gingrich 9% [13%] (28%)
- Ron Paul 8% [9%] (12%)
- Undecided 9% [7%] (12%)
Among Tea Party Supporters (52%)
- Rick Santorum 44% [34%] (13%)
- Mitt Romney 34% [41%] (23%)
- Newt Gingrich 18% [10%] (40%)
- Ron Paul 1% [7%] (11%)
- Undecided 3% [8%] (13%)
Among Non-Tea Party GOP Primary Voters (48%)
- Mitt Romney 44% [35%] (40%)
- Rick Santorum 25% [28%] (7%)
- Ron Paul 18% [15%] (13%)
- Newt Gingrich 3% [20%] (25%)
- Undecided 8% [2%] (11%)
Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters was conducted February 23-24, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 13-14, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 25-26, 2012 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
February 25th, 2012 at 12:40 pm
(insert anti Mitt posts here)
3..2..1…
February 25th, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Um, no.
There is no possible way that:
(1) The gender gap is that big
(2) Tea Partiers like Santorum MORE after seeing that debate
or (3) that Arizona is even close.
Again, ARG disappoints those concerned with the facts.
February 25th, 2012 at 12:40 pm
or rather..anti mitt ‘spin’.
February 25th, 2012 at 12:44 pm
This poll is totally ridiculous. Romney has a 21% lead with half of Arizona and trails by 12% with the other half who haven’t. He also enjoys a 30+ % gender gap. This is why some polling is total fiction , made up to keep the media happy.
By the way, Romney is in a statistical tie on Gallup today closing 5 % in one day
February 25th, 2012 at 12:45 pm
The Daily Gallup is just out
Santy 31
Mitt 30
Newt 16
Paul 11
Santy lost 2, Mitt gained 3, Newt and Paul the same. Santy is falling fast. Mitt +3 gain in one day
February 25th, 2012 at 12:48 pm
4 and 5 – NICE!
February 25th, 2012 at 12:48 pm
#5 what I found most interesting is that Gingrich pushed.
February 25th, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Is this poll an outlier – yesterday the poll had Romney and Santy in the double digits apart – wasn’t it 45 to 29?
WTH?
February 25th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Absolute craziness. Newt may just have one more life it seems. Adelson supposedly
made another “sizable” contribution.
February 25th, 2012 at 12:51 pm
Santorum BIG BUST a coming…just in time!
Thank goodness we had space between the “tri-vecta” and Michigan/AZ to vet him!!!!!!!!!
If there had been only a week, or if there hadn’t been a debate…we might REALLY be in trouble and have all the vetting be done by the DEMS, and too late for us.
The RNC has really got to come up with a better method of picking the candidate.
In the words of Christie – “Are they stupid to make the process so long and bloodied AGAINST AN INCUMBANT?”
February 25th, 2012 at 12:53 pm
38 um.. you are missing the easy obvious answer… the 45/29 poll was the outlier. Romney is certainly ahead in Arizona, but not by nearly that much
February 25th, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Ah ARG, what would we do without you for your comedy relief?
February 25th, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Killjoy:
Soon you can come over from the darkside and join our crusade to defeat Obama.
Give em Arizona desert hell Mitt!
February 25th, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Obviously, if Mitt is up by 21% among the 48% who have already voted, and is down by 12% among the 52% who haven’t voted, but ‘probably will’, he’s ahead by more than 4 points. Do the math.
This doesn’t say anything about the absurdity of the data. Nobody is running much of any campaign stuff in the state….it’s assumed to be a lock for Mitt. Had the debate moved the numbers, it would have moved them TO Mitt, and not away from him.
So what else would cause a 33 point swing between those who have already voted, and those who haven’t?? Particularly at a time when Mitt has been making major gains elsewhere??
February 25th, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Nostradamus,
I have been meaning to say your posts CRACK ME UP! My favorite had been “give em severe hell”, but today you have topped yourself. They have made my day!
February 25th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
ELECTION 2012 TRACKING
Feb 20-24, 2012 – GOP ballot support updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change. General election trial heats update periodically.
GOP BALLOT SUPPORTCHANGE Santorum31%-2 Romney30%+3
Wow…What a ONe day move on Gallup.
February 25th, 2012 at 1:12 pm
15.
I do it for you my bro.
Keep reading and I’ll keep trying to make your day.
Give em “Skyred” hell Mitt!
February 25th, 2012 at 1:16 pm
16…. my calculations based on 5 day polling means Romney out polled Santy-panties 42-23 last night. This means Santy-Panties is running off a cliff.
My best estimates last night polling
Romney 41-42%
Santy-Panties 23-24%
Newt 17-18%
Paul 10-11%
That looks like a Romney surge… and a big fall for Santy-Panties
February 25th, 2012 at 1:22 pm
15. I agree with you, his comment always make me smile. I can’t wait until Tuesday night when he can say “Mitt you gave em hell” ..
February 25th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
19.
Romney/Alexander
Give em “Plaid shirt” hell Mitt!
February 25th, 2012 at 1:29 pm
20. Heard yesterday Alexander early voted for Mitt!!
February 25th, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Look at the already votes. Wow, Mitt is killing Santorum!!! What is 48% anyway? Are we talking about absentee ballot here? Or does Arizona has a week or two of voting before the primary date, like Florida?
February 25th, 2012 at 1:32 pm
I hope some of you are making calls Romney’s National Call Day today. I am starting right now. Just need an internet connection and a phone
February 25th, 2012 at 1:40 pm
22
Actually their early voting started on Feb. 2nd, which means they have had a ton of time to early vote, which is good for Mitt!
February 25th, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Nostradamus. Too funny. And uncDave’s ‘Santy Panties’ made me literally lol. Hysterical.
February 25th, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Bunk!!!!!!!!!!!!!!