Gallup’s daily tracking poll for 2/22 has been released. The following is the graphical representation of the results taken from their website:
Rick Santorum fell back a point to 35%. Both Gingrich and Romney made it to 37% before falling back. Rick’s hard ceiling appears to be one percentage point shy of that — 36%.
Speaking of Mitt Romney, Mitt reversed his slide of the last two weeks and gained a point to 27%. This puts him at 8 points in back of Santorum.
Newt Gingrich rises a point for the second day in a row bringing him to an even 15%. He is still 20 points behind Santorum and12 points behind Romney. As Newt went down, Santorum went up. They traded voters. So the question becomes, does Newt train his guns on Rick or on Mitt? Emotionally, he wants to take out Romney, but intellectually, he has to know that his only chance at the nomination is to win back the voters that left him to go to Santorum. The upcoming debate will be most interesting to watch.
Finally, Ron Paul slipped back a point to exactly 10%. He has been in the 10% +/- 2% range for the past three weeks.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Me see a trend. Me like.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:49 pm
If Romney gets back up next week, you can literally see a real rollercoaster graph.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Mark,
I think they’re both going to go after Romney. They can see the trend. However, it is time for Santorum to pay up for all his ridiculous gaffes. If Gingrich had to eat it, so should he.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:01 pm
This shows Santorum starting to come down…..he will come down a LOT.
And Mitt is starting to go up.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Santorum has not made any gaffes. He has simply made the mistake of saying what
he believes. And any attacks have to come from the left, which benefits him.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Mittmentum!
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Santorum didn’t even hit 37% like Mitt and Newt had. Also on the other peaks, the peak was over once the candidate went down near the top. suggesting Santorum has peaked and will likely see today’s trend continue for awhile.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Santorum is still in the sweet spot in terms of the nomination. The candidate
in the lead nationally at this stage of the campaign overwhelmingly has the
greater odds.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:22 pm
If you squint at the graph, you can see that it’s actually a set of graphical instructions for braiding.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:22 pm
8. “Santorum is still in the sweet spot in terms of the nomination. The candidate
in the lead nationally at this stage of the campaign overwhelmingly has the
greater odds.”
Intrade has Romney at 77.1% to get the nomination and Sasntorum in the single digits to get it. You’re right it’s overwhelming odds, but clearly in Romney’s favor.
You must either be living in a dream world or somehow believe that if you say something in the comments section you are somehow swaying swing voters out there.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:24 pm
9,
Except that Romney is the only candidate that stays on one side of the braid.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Truth,
According to the RNC, Mitt has 79 solid delegates and Santorum has 3. Both men actually have higher totals, but that’s what they’re guaranteed right now.
That’s right, THREE actual delegates.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:47 pm
It’s a statistical marvel that, in a 5 day rolling poll, Paul stayed at the same number five days in a row, jumped 3 points in 2 days, then went static 5 more days in a row. There must be some interesting numbers to make that happen.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:48 pm
12,
There have been 18 superdelegates that have publicly supported Romney and 1 for Sanstorum. 18 to 1 is in keeping with 79 to 3 that you list nonpublicly through the RNC. So it makes sense.
February 22nd, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Historically, two days of pushing followed by a drop predicts a long slide. If this holds true, the Santorum drop has officially begun.
February 22nd, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Notice Gingrich surging.
February 22nd, 2012 at 3:06 pm
#15 Thank goodness!
February 22nd, 2012 at 5:28 pm
@James from TX – 11
It’s a french braid.