Rasmussen Michigan 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Rick Santorum 38% [35%] (17%)
- Mitt Romney 34% [32%] (38%)
- Ron Paul 10% [13%] (14%)
- Newt Gingrich 9% [11%] (23%)
- Some other candidate 1% [1%] (1%)
- Undecided 8% [8%] (6%)
Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?
- Certain 57% [52%] (52%)
- Could change mind 35% [40%] (41%)
- No preference yet 8% [8%] (6%)
Note: Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Romney’s supporters are certain of their vote, as are 60% of Santorum backers, 60% of Paul’s voters and 54% of Gingrich’s.
Suppose the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. For whom would you vote?
- Rick Santorum 47% [49%]
- Mitt Romney 40% [37%]
Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?
- Mitt Romney 56% [61%] (76%)
- Rick Santorum 31% [16%]
Note: Just three percent (3%) think either Paul or Gingrich will come out on top.
Survey of 750 likely primary voters was conducted February 20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 13, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 1, 2012 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Seventy-six percent (76%) say it’s at least somewhat likely that Romney would beat Obama in November if he wins the nomination, compared to 65% who say that about Santorum. Most voters see a Gingrich or Paul win over Obama as unlikely.
Male primary voters prefer Santorum over Romney 40% to 31%, while female voters are almost evenly divided between the two.
Santorum is way ahead of Romney among Evangelical Christian primary voters in Michigan, but Romney holds much narrower leads among other Protestants, Catholics and primary voters of other faiths.
Santorum trounces Romney among Very Conservative primary voters in Michigan, while Romney holds a four-point edge among those who describe themselves as Somewhat Conservative.
Among Tea Party voters, it’s Santorum 57%, Romney 23%. Primary voters who say they are not members of the grass roots movement prefer Romney 40% to 31%.
Both Santorum and Romney are viewed favorably by 71% of likely Michigan primary voters, but Santorum draws very favorable reviews from 33% compared to Romney’s 24%. Gingrich is viewed favorably by 47% of Michigan primary voters, while 41% share a favorable opinion of Paul.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
February 21st, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Santorum is rolling high, baby!
Michigan + Arizona + Ohio = Hung Convention!
February 21st, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Another done the very same say has Romney ahead. So all this means is it’s dead even.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Evangelicals are the reason Romney isn’t getting ahead of the game. Evidence is overwhelming.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:58 pm
krissmith777, I called those other 2 polls you so badly want to be true. I called the number and they are both linked to Romney’s super pac
How about I conduct a poll from satans point of view and call it sound numbers hahaahah??
February 21st, 2012 at 6:59 pm
This is going to be close. Romney wins Arizona but needs Michigan to get the momentum back..
February 21st, 2012 at 6:59 pm
We’ve had another very recent Michigan Poll that shows Santorum’s lead among very conservative voters, and among Evangelicals, eroding significantly….might have been the MIRS poll.
Romney leads the other categorical breakdowns.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Even though the polls and the all the so called elite pundits say there is no chance Santorum will lose in Michigan it ain’t over yet.
Let’s spoil the wingnuts day on the 28th.
Give em severe Satan “comeback kid” Mitt!
February 21st, 2012 at 7:01 pm
BTW,
I have a lot of sympathy for Evangelicals….they’re trying to do the right thing, behave the right way….there’s just so much they don’t know.
You have to feel for them.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Mitt needs to organize for a great turnout amongst non Evangelicals.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:04 pm
“there’s just so much they don’t know.” True, but politically, they know all they need to know which is more than we can say for some (i.e. Romneyites.)
February 21st, 2012 at 7:05 pm
#8 I suspect the American evangelicals won’t appreciate your sentiments. Poor dumb evangelicals if only they were smart like me and Romney.
What troubles me about Romney is that it’s not just random supporters on blog who have that attitude. Some of Romney’s surrogates in the media have that same “Do as we say because we’re smarter than you” attitude.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Oh was not Mr. Romney suppose to win his father’s state by double digits. Looks like they finally had enough in Michigan. Even they are fed up with Mr. Romney’s non-sense and dishonesty.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:07 pm
“Poor dumb evangelicals if only they were smart like me and Romney.” Ya, funny how the smartest man in the room is not so smart after all.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:07 pm
This will be close.
Newt and Paul continue to slide down….how far will they go down?
Santorum needed Bachmann to fall to the floor (5%) to squeak out a win in Iowa. How far does Santorum need Newt to slide down to secure a victory in Michigan?
The Romney supporters are more certain of their votes…………
…this is going to be a nail biter
February 21st, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Now evangelicals are the bogeymen that are denying Mitt Romney his place in history.
They simply don’t cotton to the man. He’s had 6 years to make the sale and he hasn’t made it. If Mitt hasn’t done it by now, he never will.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Both Arizona and Michigan should be slam dunks for Romney. It’s troubling that it’s this close. What happens in more conservative states?
February 21st, 2012 at 7:09 pm
“Now evangelicals are the bogeymen that are denying Mitt Romney his place in history.” Ya, it is kinda fun to watch the Romneyites meltdown and lash out against Conservatives of all religions.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:10 pm
“What happens in more conservative states?” Well, my guess in that Mr. Romney has even more trouble there. Never a dull moment.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Don’t blame Mormonism Jason. Do not fall for the Romney trap and get sucked into a religious contest. Do not stoop to the Romneyite level. After all, many Mormons do not support him and his values.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Jason,
Cut it out.
Keep the Mormon hate out of Race42012. You add nothing of value here.
Now get.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Well said Smack, there is no point to stoop to the level of some of them.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Smack1968, hit a nerve here. I am not going to stop pointing out Romney’s stupid beliefs. If you dont like it go die somewhere.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Kavon, PLEASE ban Jason from commenting on here.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:16 pm
23, That will get you banned really quick.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Firecracker, i cant be banned I change my email addy on all posts and use a ip spoofer
February 21st, 2012 at 7:19 pm
Romney’s burning through cash pretty fast. Any chance that he starts self-financing once it’s all gone?
February 21st, 2012 at 7:20 pm
he is down to $7.7 and its awesome seeing him crash so hard. So beautiful seeing him lose
February 21st, 2012 at 7:21 pm
Jason,
“If you dont like it go die somewhere.”
Not until I’m done drinking my beer..and it’s going to be awhile.
Go spread your hate….no one is gonna stop you.
But you won’t do it here.
Now get.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Jason,
Ummmmmmmmmm, Your an IDIOT!!!
February 21st, 2012 at 7:24 pm
27 LOL, Romney and Paul are the only ones with money.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:24 pm
28
And Newt is 1.7 mil in DEBT. You should vote for him!
February 21st, 2012 at 7:26 pm
31 Jason
So your Jesus would act like you?????? That is not the Jesus of the Bible.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:26 pm
And somehow Santy is running almost as well as Romney in Arizona? I don’t think so.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/disappointing-turnout-for-santorum-in-phoenix
February 21st, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Santorum is on a rocket to the nomination now. It will take till June likely but he cant be stopped unless romney drops out and Jeb enters
February 21st, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Jason #18,
That doesn’t belong here. Stop it.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Jason,
No one is telling you that you can’t have your own beliefs…
…but there is no Religous test in the USA.
Now get.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:29 pm
The real question is what are these polls going to look like in Michigan after the Drudge bomb, it usually takes a few days to soak in. Mitt was having some positive momentum regardless, but a HUGE amount of new Santorum supporters are now going to question his viability against Obama.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Smack1968, There is among conservative primary voters though rather you like it or not. Its called the right to vote for sane people.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Jason thinks he “can’t be banned”, well if we ignore his posts…what’s the difference?
February 21st, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Jason… Smack isn’t even a Romney supporter… he’s been fairly even keeled and has long since stood for much is what is right of conservatism. I suggest you take your shtick elsewhere because you aren’t even landing your blows on the right people.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Tomorrow Santorum will find out what its like to get his lunch handed to him.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:36 pm
Explain to me how a Catholic is losing to a Mormon with Catholic voters while Evangelicals are running like crazy to the Catholic? Obvious answer. Anti-Mormon
February 21st, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Have fun with your inflatable doll
February 21st, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Poor girl.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:39 pm
47 You’re being nice – there’s worse you could have gone for.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:40 pm
45′s comments are almost as bad.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:40 pm
I wonder what “bang” means to a 9 year old?
February 21st, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Tommy R’s statement is pretty bigoted if you ask me. Maybe more Evangelical Christians are voting for the other guy because the other guy is more conservative than Romney. Evangelical Christians are generally among the most conservative voters in the country.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Reading the comments and laughing. Live it up RomNots….
Notice how it isn’t “Yay, Santorum is up….”
Instead, it’s glee over Romney’s fall.
It says something. It says Romney is really the front runner, you know it, but the delusion feels good while it lasts.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:53 pm
Re: my comment at 47. I was referring to Tommy R. The numbers changed for some reason.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:54 pm
Evangelicals are the largest religious group in the Republican party. Mormons only make up 3%, the minority.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:05 pm
Smack! Ha! Loved the “Smack’ down on Jason!!!! He needs to run back to Townhall where they’re used to ignorant comments. . . .
February 21st, 2012 at 9:51 pm
This whole conversation is fantastic for the Dem’s, and a total disaster for the GOP. As the Evangelicals gain more power and control, your ability to sell the conservative political ideology(that once existed) of the party is fast disappearing. It now is beginning to appear that the general public will never buy this religious ideological move to the right. Most of the nation thinks it is insanity, not only do they want to impose their religious beliefs on others, they appear to be bigoted against others that don’t perceive the world through their eyes, they don’t like specific groups of people and those of different religions. This party has big problems and if a Santorum or like were nominated he will lose the presidency and the congress. Maybe that is exactly what the party needs, so a new third party will rise from the ashes and leave those that want to add religious ideological planks to the platform in the old party. Lets see how long that party last. This is exactly the reason so many have left the party. Nominate Santorum and we Independents have no choice but to vote Democrat.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Kavon,
Can you ban mean, disgusting Jason? If not, can we all agree to ignore all his comments/posts.
I wish he will go somewhere else to spew his hate.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:34 pm
The Rasmussen sample is
40% very conservative
34% somewhat conservative
26% other
And despite severely “very conservative” sample, Romney still leads 41-40 in certain of their vote category.
2008 Michigan Republican primary ideological distribution gives Romney 2 point lead from cross tabs.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:55 pm
“…but there is no Religous test in the USA.”
That only applies to the law, not voters. And, of course, bloggers can ban anybody they darn well please.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:59 pm
“Nominate Santorum and we Independents have no choice but to vote Democrat.”
That is true. Some people love the murder of unborn children so much and want to defend counterfeit marriage so much they would rather have their taxes raised, their freedoms disappear, and the economy go belly-up than vote for a social conservative.
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:18 am
#57:
Via Gallup, 36% of independent voters now self-identify as CONSERVATIVE. That’s up from 28% in 2008.
Regarding independents, we’re not talking about a monolithic group here.
And there’s a good chance if Santorum is the nominee many Democrats will not vote for Obama. About 20% of Democrats self-identify as conservative or Reagan Democrats.
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:47 am
58.
You have got to be kidding. How can you possibly justify that ANY moderate/independent voters on either side could vote for an extreme social conservative like Santorum…You’re argument is valid for strong Fiscal conservatives.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:18 am
Blue-Collar Reagan Democrats were not put off by his social Conservatism.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:59 am
#59 you Romney supporters really need to get on the same page… one minute your saying Santorum isn’t really a conservative and that Romney is the only real conservative in the race, and the next your calling Santorum an “extreme conservative” … too extreme to be elected in the general, and that we must rally to moderate Romney who can win all those independants in the general like McCain was suppose to.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:07 am
#59:
Again via Gallup:
Ideological breakdown 2011:
Conservatives 42%
Moderates 35%
Liberals 22%
In 2008 conservatives only represented 34% of the electorate while moderates represented 44% of the electorate. In 3 short years, the conservative share of the electorate has gone up by 8 points and the moderate share has declined by 9 points, a swing of 17 points.
This has generally gone unreported.
It’s all in the numbers. If Santorum got 85% of the conservative vote he would be at 35.7%; then add in 40% of the moderate vote, he’s up 14% to 49.7% and then sprinkle in 10% of liberals (libertarians), Santorum reaches 51.9% of the vote.
Let’s say he only get 84% of the conservative vote as the GOP got in 2010 and only 38% of the moderate vote with 10% liberal he would still earn just over 50% of the popular vote.
Why Team Obama fears Santorum–these kinds of numbers plus his ability to maximize white conservative voter turnout. The double whammy–the kiss of death for Obama.
February 22nd, 2012 at 3:47 am
“Obvious answer. Anti-Mormon” More crazy talk.
February 22nd, 2012 at 3:48 am
Well said Killjoy, one minute they have talking points, the next, they do not.
February 22nd, 2012 at 5:46 am
62. Please take your head out of the sand.
please. Republicans..
wake up and blink. You cannot possibly think that Rick Santorum could go up against Obama. In a year in which the economy could play the pivotal role in the election, the party can either nominate Mitt Romney or take the economy off the table.
Rick Santorum would be happy to talk about Faith and abortion…and you know who else would?? Obama.
Obama would love to make this election about everything except the economy.
A vote for Santorum = a vote for Obama.
congratulations evangelicals, you’ve almost ruined any chance we had at the executive branch.
February 22nd, 2012 at 6:56 am
61, 64
We aren’t a bunch of organized people who coordinate talking points in lockstep. Some of us think Santorum is a big government nanny state power monger, others think he’s too socially conservative and extreme. Put me in the first group.
We aren’t all the same, I know it’s shocking, but it’s true.
February 22nd, 2012 at 7:27 am
61 , 64
and then there are those of us that say that he is a big spender (fiscally liberal) and an extreme social conservative (extreme social conservative).
He is literally the worst of both worlds.