Momentum:
Mitchell Research & Communication / Rosetta Stone Communications Michigan Primary Survey
- Romney – 32% (24)
- Santorum – 30% (34)
- Gingrich – 9% (5)
- Paul – 7% (11)
- Undecided – 22% (25)
Survey of 420 likely primary voters was conducted Feb 20 and has a margin of error of +/-4.7%. Numbers from the Feb 12 poll are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Romney has made big inroads with conservatives that had gone to Santorum in the last poll. Santorum’s lead among Tea Party voters has been cut from 15% to 5%, his lead with Evangelical Christians has been cut from 16% to 11%, and his huge lead among those that say they are “very conservative” has been cut in half, from 31% to 15%. The strong negative ads being run in Michigan defining Santorum as a big spender have had a huge impact. Romney’s message and resources have put him back into the lead… The campaign in Michigan remains extremely close; however recent polls conducted over the last few days indicate that there has been a fundamental momentum shift back to Mitt Romney.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:42 am
Yes!!! Congrats to Romney and team! We need Romney in the White House!!
February 21st, 2012 at 7:44 am
So, should Santorum quit if he loses Michigan after having a big lead???
Really, did anyone really expect Santorum to get the nomination. There is Conservative Romney, and then there is everyone else. Saying you are conservative isn’t the same thing as being conservative.
And another begins to bite the dust.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:49 am
Major collapse by Santorum. That’s tongue in cheek because the media is salivating for Romney to fail and somehow a strong comeback by Mitt will somehow be turned into a victory for Santorum by the media. The story will be “Mitt ONLY wins his hometown state by 5 points, is this a sign that it’s time for a newcomer to take the mantle from the least popular GOP candidate of all time?”
By the way, I never really thought he was going to win Michigan, let alone be the nominee. Santorum has managed to avoid any sort of vetting by the other candidates or the media until these last couple of weeks. Every claim that Santorum has made is now under question.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:50 am
wait I thought just the other day all the Rombots were arguing that only a moderate like Romney could attract independents in the general… now your saying he is a conservative again?
February 21st, 2012 at 7:51 am
Two polls in 2 days show +12 and +11 point shifts to Romney. That’s BIG MO BABY!!!!
Santorum needs a stellar debate or he’s gonna lose both states by double digits. Mitt will probably own the debate too.
I jus can’t stop smiling!!
February 21st, 2012 at 7:53 am
Ah, yes, and as the addage goes: those undecideds will shift with the candidate who has the momentum, and that is Mitt, so expect this to be a true comeback. Maybe that “surge” Rasmussen talked about last night will show up soon as they don’t allow so many undecideds.
Methinks Santorum hitting the non-MI states was telling not just of a bad campaign (that possibly could’ve fought Mitt a bit more in MI but saw the writing on the wall), but of someone who knows that they can’t go truly head-to-head with Mitt. He knows MI and AZ are losers for him. I think you’re going to see a 3 person dog pile on Santorum tomorrow at the debate, which will damage him even moreso, especially if “Whiny Rick” comes to play. The one topic that no one has really taken him to task on (and I think Mitt kills him with it): lobbying/influence peddling after he got trounced in PA.
This will also blunt any states he takes on Super Tuesday, and help Mitt get some good momentum back. Good times.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:53 am
Also calculated political distribution from crosstabs, these numbers were the only one that gave right result for every candidate, so this was probably even more Santorum friendly sample than the actual electorate.
36% very conservative
40% conservative
24% liberal
February 21st, 2012 at 7:54 am
Looks like money really does decide outcomes.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:54 am
4.he has always been conservatjve that others ca comfortably vote for . No so the vest who is reaching to the ugly underbelly of the far extreme right for his votes.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:56 am
#7 I see what happened, again the numbers didn’t shift towards Romney, they just adjusted the political distribution. This poll is bunk and the supposed momentum is manufactured
February 21st, 2012 at 8:00 am
8.
I hope thats not a new discovery for you. How do you think we got Obama? Money tends to coalesce around the candidate with the best shot of winning. Always has and always will.
Whats really starting to hit Santorum is Santorum. Every time he starts talking about contraceptives or Obama’s Islamic values he fires up a tiny slice of the electorate and turns everyone else off. When he starts whining in the debate about how the negative attacks from Romney, and he will, another collective yawn will go up from the electorate who are looking for someone to actually address the important issues we are facing and its not contraceptives.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:06 am
Rsmussen is releasing a poll on Saturday. I think Ronney is leading by 2-3% I dont think he will hold it though because Gingrich supporters are likely going to bail and join the Santorum Campaign as they have in Co, Mn, and Mo. As long as the debate is a tie it wil be a squeaker for Santorum.
If either of the 2 main candidates does very well in the debate, I expect a win of 5% but no greater than 5%
February 21st, 2012 at 8:07 am
#7 I see what happened, again the numbers didn’t shift towards Romney, they just adjusted the political distribution. This poll is bunk and the supposed momentum is manufactured
Actually if you read the description of the poll and look at the numbers, you can see shift inside the groups also
Let’s assume that Michigan has SC level boost in evangelical turnout, and FL level boost in conservative turnout, the both were highest boosts of the three primaries, even this level boost is unlikely for reason I said in other thread
http://race42012.com/2012/02/20/how-to-create-momentum-by-changing-your-sample/#comment-1150874
FL level “very conservative boost”, SC level evangelical boost
Very conservative 29-30%
Evangelical 42%
Now this poll has
February 21st, 2012 at 8:08 am
8. Lol.
Would u rather just have the media decide the election then? They’ve been pushing Santorum big time and that’s been his surge. Romney’s been hammered by the conservative AND liberal media plus the attacks (yes “money” with paid ads) of the DNC, the white house, and the unions.
And u r complaining that Mitt puts up some ads to set the record straight!?!?!
February 21st, 2012 at 8:13 am
I just head from One of my Republican state coworkers than Romney thinks he has a 50-50 chance at wining Arizona.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:17 am
Now I never really trust internal polling leaks, but for what it’s worth, assuming Romney’s internal polling in Arizona really shows a 50-50 chance at winning or losing Arizona, the only hope for both Santorum and Romney is this. GINGRICH. If his supports bail, public polls all show about 55% of Gingrich’s supports going to Santorum. In Michigan the number is similar.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:18 am
14
Don’t expect any reason today or even until the nomination from the anti-Romneys. Their reason to exist is to be anti-Romney. We get sad when he isn’t doing well, but we don’t sit there and not accept it. They, on the other hand, have to be anti-anything-pro-Romney, including polls. “Oh, they just fudged the numbers.” “That poll is bunk!” “He has too much money!” “It’s his home state!” (again? what about NH? Mass? Utah? NV? which one is it?)
It’s borderline ridiculous. Mitt is the ONLY candidate getting attacked by BOTH far wings and the media as well as fellow candidates. The fact he hasn’t imploded is amazing and a testament to his character.
I expect the remaining polls to show this swing and yes, as already mentioned, the national media will brush off an impressive 2-win night as “home court advantage.” Then, when Rick either wins or comes in close second in WA? “HE’S GOING TO WIN THE NOMINATION! WOW!” It’s such idiocy, but the media want this thing to drag out, so they’ll play it.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:22 am
Iowa is already hard to poll due to it’s low caucus turnout. Colorado caucus turnout, relative to population was 3 times lower and Minnesota turnout was 5 times lower, meaning they are impossible to poll, Missouri primary was pretty unique, turnout was 40% of 2008 because it was just beauty contest, hard to poll, Gingrich wasn’t even on Missouri ballot, this actually forced any Gingrich supporter coming to the polls to choose, this wont be the issue in Michigan, so hard to say whether there was any real movement from Gingrich to Santorum, Santorum has done better in every caucus than he has done in the polls attempting to poll caucuses, so you might as well conclude that Sanotorum just get’s underpolled when it comes to caucuses.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:23 am
YES!!!!!!
15.
Romney will win Arizona going away buddy, MI was the only threat, but now he looks to be locking up MI as well.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:23 am
15, 16
1. Of COURSE it’s 50-50! He’ll either win it or he won’t! There are 2 options, therefore 50% chance.
2. LOL! I just heard from an unnamed source that your friend doesn’t know what he’s talking about. AZ is in the bag. Do you know how much early voting there’s been? Hundreds of thousands! And do you know when that started? Even before this media-infused Santorububble.
3. Also, as will be ABUNDANTLY proclaimed by the media, AZ has a ton of mormons who will vote en masse for Mitt. It won’t be close, and certainly won’t be as close as you’re hinting. Anecdotally, I know of hundreds who’ve voted for Mitt.
4. Michigan is turning…to Mitt. Santorum’s bubble is about to pop. He’s been exposed. He’ll keep it close with the crazy idea of 0% manufacturing tax (which won’t play anywhere except mid-west, and when analyzed shows a TON of holes). But the more he uses free, national-level media to self-advertise, the more he has to explain his far-right book/sermons/personal beliefs. It won’t play well, and he’ll be explaining himself constantly.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:25 am
Little Ricky is falling faster than I even imagined!!
Steady as she goes…
February 21st, 2012 at 8:25 am
Lincoln could talk about God in a way that was humble, that didn’t disregard the audience he was addressing, that left room for God to argue with Lincoln.
From his second inaugural address: ” . . . with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, . . . ” Notice how wonderfully Lincoln includes his hearers, and makes clear that he pretends to no exclusive access to the will of the Almighty.
Santorum, by way of contrast, knows what God is thinking, his opinions are Biblically based, and he’s going to use religion as a battering ram to invalidate your opinion and disregard your argument. If you have an opinion that differs from his, you’re a heretic, whether it’s the environment or medical care issues, he’s on the inside with God, you’re not.
I have no doubt this man would use the bully pulpit to be a pulpit bully. He’s already getting a running start.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:25 am
We Ask America poll out today of 1200 Romney up 10 in Az. With heavy early voting already done sounds more like 90-10 then 50-50.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:25 am
Teemu, sorry if you dont like my posts but I am posting what I see. I suggest you dont get so uptight on what others think. You should have more self confidence in your posts and if you dont. while I understand why you attack me, its frankly only my opinion and you should not get so bent out of shape over what others think.
This race is very close and it will be decide by turnout and nothing else.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:30 am
“36% very conservative”
Definitely a Santorum-friendly sample.
It should be no higher than 30%.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:30 am
I have been very encouraged by what I have seen in the swing states that Romney has spent a lot of time in. States like Iowa, NH, Florida, NV, and now Michigan. In each one of these swing states I have seen Obama’s numbers fall compared to Romney’s. I believe Romney is going from one competitive state to the next prepping for the General Election. After Michigan he will be in Ohio and Virginia for a couple of weeks. Next will be Missouri and so on. One thing I will be watching for is the numbers in Michigan after the GOP move on to other states. If the trend continues you will see his numbers improve against Obama.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:31 am
Romney is not surging.
Here is what happened. Romney gets a good chunk of his support from liberals…
guess how THIS poll compares to the latest PPP poll ?
This poll 24% liberal
Latest PPP poll 3% liberal
Romney has no momentum, the pollsters are just messing with the underlying assumptions of who will vote in Michigan
February 21st, 2012 at 8:32 am
24 – jason, while not directed at me, your post screams speculation and you attribute it to fact/sources. Also, NO polling is showing AZ a tossup, quite the opposite. Now you’re saying broad and obvious statements which are true but have nothing to do with the discussion: “This race is very close and it will be decided by turnout and nothing else.”
That is ALWAYS true, except the “nothing else.” Also, the media got taken away by 2 small caucus states that were extremely UNDER-representative of the states registered republicans. This doesn’t happen in huge primaries, where Rick does much poorer. This has been the case each time. When a hundred thousand (or hundreds of thousands) vote, he does poorly. Until he proves otherwise, color me doubtful.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:35 am
All Santorum and Romney supporters this is a good indication of internal polling. It shows what my data also tells be that I am not allowed to disclose. It is an indirect insight in the G.O.P.s’ inside numbers that all high level state party officials have access to
Note I am not a high level staffer. I do have good sources though, but not as good as the media I would say.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/20/some-republicans-whisper-about-a-plan-b/
February 21st, 2012 at 8:35 am
anyone who thinks 24% of republican primary voters in Michigan are liberals, needs to get their head checked
February 21st, 2012 at 8:38 am
Romney is narrowly losing to Santorum among Democrats and Independents, but leads Santorum among Republicans.
So much for the “liberals” skewing the poll for Romney.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:38 am
27
Good morning! Today’s hurting, isn’t it? You sure didn’t have a problem with this poll last time, did you? And you sure like PPP, right? With it’s great track record for primaries? Anyway, to my point:
Look, poke holes all day long in the polls. Momentum is going AWAY from Rick to Mitt in EVERY group. This poll let you classify yourself as either very con, somewhat con, or liberal. The other polls break it down more than that. So, yeah, you could simply say they baked the results, but they don’t have comparable groups to other polls since there are only 3, so spin it all you want, but it’s showing what EVERYONE is showing: Mitt is making a comeback.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:39 am
24, don’t sweat it jason, none of us like your posts.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:40 am
“Michigan is the whole shooting match,” said one senior GOP strategist not aligned with a campaign. Says another: “If Romney loses Michigan, all hell breaks loose.” Says the c.n.n. article
February 21st, 2012 at 8:42 am
#32 liberals make up 21% of the total population … but they make up 24% of the Republican primary voters in Michigan ? lol right
February 21st, 2012 at 8:42 am
Lincoln had to resist very strong currents in the Republican Party that pulled toward religious zealotry in the abolitionist cause. He was so careful to advocate for the cause of ending slavery in a way that maximized the stability of the union. He could have easily demonized the South, and wielded the heavy stick of religion to incite maximum passion for the course he was pursuing.
He didn’t.
The Theocon movement in the GOP today as exemplified by Rick Santorum is busy turning everything into a religious war. Everything. The more theological our differences are, the more passion we can bring to fight. And the less regard we need to take for opinions we don’t share, and the less regard for our methods as well, since our aims are so pure.
Lincoln could balance the aims he pursued with the methods he used, calculating wisely the impact those methods could have on the future of the country.
Theocons won’t.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:42 am
Well, thanks for outting yourself as the liberal you are. NONE of us “except” myself are conservatives that is why.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:43 am
27 — Killjoy!!
If you look at the breakouts of the Democrat voters you will see that Santorum is getting 19% to Romney’s 16%. If you only take Republican and Republican leaning voters you would have Santorum getting 34% to Romney’s 38%. So Romney’s numbers improve when you take this block out.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:44 am
This poll forces moderates to choose between liberal and “somewhat conservative”. Romney does much better among somewhat conservative than liberals in this poll.
Romney crushes Santorum much worse in “somewhat conservative” category, by 16 points, when he wins over Santorum only by 6 points in liberal.
2008 Republican Michigan primary turnout
Very Liberal(3%)
Somewhat Liberal(9%)
Moderate(33%)
So 12% liberal. Now if 36% of moderates when forced to classify themselves either as liberal or “somewhat conservative” choose the liberal, we get to 24%.
South Carolina had it’s Republican and Democratic primaries on different dates in 2008, and the primaries were open, Florida had closed primary. The only primary that was open to independent and where the Republican primary was at the same date in 2008 as Democratic Primary, so that you couldn’t vote in both like in SC, was New Hampshire where turnout was more moderate this year, Michigan could also be that way.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:44 am
#38 lol so your now trying to tell me that Santorum gets most of his support from liberals? lol
February 21st, 2012 at 8:46 am
A statistical tie before the debate? So sweet.
For our family, the debate will be like the Super Bowl.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:46 am
Did anyone see how Michigan announced they will give out the 30 delegates ?
2 delegates to the statewide winner split among those over 20%. That means
1 for Romney and 1 for Santorum. Then 2 delegates to the winner of each of
the 14 congressional districts. So the most delegates will go to whoever
wins the most congressional districts.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:47 am
37 Jason, there is the prime reason why we don’t like your posts. You deem yourself the only person here worthy to be labeled conservative. You don’t know us, you have no clue how we vote, you don’t know what you’re talking about and you don’t have the right to say who is and who isn’t a conservative. Every one of us is capable of self determination, you don’t get to sit on your throne and decide for us which of is or isn’t conservative.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:49 am
Good news for Romney supporters.
And a big debate tonight. We’ll see what happens.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:49 am
34.
Oh No! Some unnamed person said something!
Who cares?
CNN is as bad as MSNBC, both are in the tank for Obama and do anything they can to inject FUD into the Republican primary to help him. Romney is coming back in MI and AZ just as he did in NH after Iowa and FL after SC. The only people not panicking are the Romney team and they are methodically doing what the need to do to put away the last not Romney.
What all the not Romneys don’t seem to get is that MI and AZ are much bigger for the not Romney cause than they are for Romney. If he loses MI, he still has the resources to continue all the way to Tampa. But if Santorum loses after all the build up where does he go? He can’t rely on Foster Friess to keep bailing out his campaign.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:49 am
‘Scuse me, the debate is tomorrow.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:52 am
Not Your Severely Constipated Daddy, U give myself and have whats called a first amendment right to say anything i want. I give myself no rights, I take existing rights to say you and 94.318% of all posts here are supportive of romeny. Buy a calculator and learn how to read son. Its pretty easy to claim and spot a romney liberal. I learned how to understand what I read in 2nd grade. I also hope you are smart enough to get what people who post here intend to portray in their posts.
Maybe you are not intelligent enough to understand that, but I really cant make you smart if you already are not.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:52 am
40 –
You watch. Santorum will receive more support from the Democrats on Election Day not because they want him to be president but only because they don’t want Romney to be.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:55 am
44
The debate is tomorrow, isn’t it?
February 21st, 2012 at 8:56 am
Liberals LOVE santorum! He’ll be a cakewalk to beat in a general. What makes a Santorum even sweeter, is that many GOP’s will either vote 3rd party or not show at the polls, or will show and not vote for top of tickets if Santorum is on the ballot. We CONSERVATIVES find him THAT offensive.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:57 am
44. Yes. On Ash Wed. Look for Santorum to show up with a bigger smudge on his forehead than Gingrich. Fun part will be watching Santorum make an Ash of himself.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:58 am
42 –
Fellow Arizonan. It is very likely that Romney could win Michigan by 3 to 5% but still receive fewer delegates than Santorum. This is due as you noted to the smaller more rural districts that will lean more to Santorum. Romney needs to win Michigan by more than 5% in my opinion to be able to beat Santorum in the delegate count take. Here’s for hoping.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:00 am
Operation Chaos: Dems voting for Santorum to hurt Romney.
Gotta love it! The writing is on the wall, RomNots.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:02 am
rightgal, I am glad your so pleased, they all said that about Ron Reagan in the 1980 general election with Carter, and that fool lost by a landslide.
Secondly, polls that measure intensity on a 1-10 scale show republicans would TURN OUT IN DROVES in a general Election assuming Rick locks this thing up in june.
As to moderates, he won Pennsylvania in 1994 and again in 2000. Lots of indies live there he could only win if he was a mainstream kinda middle class type of guy.
Lastly, Romney can not to save his life get conservatives to vote for him to save his political life. Question for you. How can Romney win a general election when his own base wants to get drunk at the prospect of the squish being the nominee, if he cant win his base voters how will the enemy ever vote for him?
February 21st, 2012 at 9:04 am
Jason, this is what kills me: only the hate-Romney people are excluding others from even considering themselves conservatives it Christians. NOBODY else is doing it. Even when Mitt attacks others it is to show they aren’t perfect, either, and he thinks he can do a better job. But the ABR fans try and string up anybody they’re arguing wig as liberal. Then, when the party is fractured, they blame it on Mitt and his supporters. Mitt is the only one that hasn’t tried to exclude people.
Now, I have to laugh that Santorum is winning with liberals and Mitt with overall conservatives.
Can’t wait for the votes, like FL, to shut up another whiny, exclusionary voice.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:07 am
Very good poll result for Mitt Romney.
A note on adjustment of samples…
…some times the samples are weighed differently between polls not because of a predetermined weighing…but because of the respoondents themsleves and how they wish to describe themselves and a few other variables.
It’s time to get your ass in Michigan and stay there Santorum.
RUM can’t fall too far behind with GOP voters..the Reagab Demorcrats are only going to help with about a 2% boost in his final numbers.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:07 am
Insider Advantage Georgia (!!!)
Gingrich – 26%
Romney – 24%
Santorum – 23%
Paul – 12%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_GA_0220.pdf
February 21st, 2012 at 9:10 am
Massachusetts Conservative, see I knew it you finally exposed yourself, the other day you told me how conservative you are, yet now you post “Gotta love it! The writing is on the wall, RomNots”.
I knew you were a obama fan, this is why i posted the Obama as Brer Rabbit analogy. You fake being for romney This tells me what I always knew. Liberal wan mitt because they know HE CANT WIN OVER sonservatives. If he cant win Conservatives he is dead.
RNC morons say Santorum cant win Indies, if that was true he would never of won in PA twice, but even if you are willing to buy their stupid position, It does not matter if you win Indies, if it is offset by a loss of NOT BEING ABLE TO GET MORE THAN 70% OF REPUBLICANS YOU WILL LOSE EVERYTIME.
AS of now Romney only gets 73% in most polls of the gop VOTE, where as Santorum gets roughly 92% of Base republicans I wonder why more REAL Romney fans are not intelligent enough to see that
February 21st, 2012 at 9:11 am
#57;
Newt is toast. A Rosetta Stone poll 11 days before showed him at 36%. He has no momentum. Santorum has the lion’s share of it now.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:19 am
We’ve seen this movie before. Romney’s ad spending advantage over Rick in MI is a lot lower than it was over Newt in IA and FL, so it’ll be harder to excuse away a victory next week.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:20 am
58
Uh-huh. I secretly love Obama and I’m just pretending to be conservative. Yep.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:25 am
Massachusetts Conservative, I know that thanks for admitting it. I know u use sarcassism to cover it up, but I know you really are being honest in your words.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:30 am
Maybe people are waking up to the fact that Rick Santorum is unelectable in the general. The choice is either 4 more years of Obama and having Obamacare as the law of the land, or electing someone in the Primary who will appeal to the Independents and taking back the WH.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:35 am
I have no idea about these things so I listen to the “experts” who say watch
the undecideds. Where do they go?
February 21st, 2012 at 9:37 am
Conservative Independent , as to your Obama Care comment, The Supreme Court will rule that it is UnConstitutional and that since there is no severability clause, the whore law must fall since the Commerce Clause taxion provision is void. How come I am so sure of this outcome Because 5 is greater than 4.
Read the opinion of the court in United States v. Lopez – 514 U.S. 549 (1995) Justicve kennedy will rule the same way and not vote to change precedent from just 1995 on the same type of case that Obama Care presents to the court on this legal provision in the constitution under legal provision Article I, Section 8, Clause 3)
REHNQUIST, C. J., delivered the opinion of the Court, in which O’CONNOR, SCALIA, KENNEDY, and THOMAS, JJ., joined. KENNEDY, J., filed a concurring opinion, in which O’CONNOR, J., joined, post, p. 568. THOMAS, J., filed a concurring opinion, post, p. 584. STEVENS, J., post, p. 602, and SOUTER, J., post, p. 603, filed dissenting opinions. BREYER, J., filed a dissenting opinion, in which STEVENS, SOUTER, and GINSBURG, JJ., joined, post, p. 615.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:41 am
How big is the Absettene vote in Michgan…
February 21st, 2012 at 9:43 am
I don’t think it is really about appealing to the independents as much as not hacking them off. They want to vote against Obama.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:43 am
So alternative interpretation of the data is an attack? Relax.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:43 am
Oh and also all cases the Supreme Court grants certiorari and sets oral argument on are decided during that court term. The court set Oral argument for Early March so this means by June which is the end of the current court term, the case must as it always is, decided by the end of the current sitting and that will be in June.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:50 am
So Romney cant say hey obama case vote for me I will repeal it, because the Supreme Court will do it for us. Without htis issue on the table, it becomes a moot campaign tool to use agaisnt Obama. While Romney care did the same thing Forcing a mandate as does Obama Care Obama will have all the power to call Romney out on his liberal socialism pot calling the kettle black.
Only a non Gingrich and Romney candidate has credibility on this issue. Now we need to focus Romney will get killed on the Romney care issue. All Obama has to do is say Hey mitty so you say your strongly agree with the Supreme Court wrongly decided ruling on my law of Obama Care, so if you agree with it so much, Why dont you call for RomneyCare to ALSO BE STRUCK DOWN.
This is Why The left wants Romney he will be a sinch to defeat.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:57 am
I’ve yet to see a poll where Romney isn’t winning AZ, and much of the early voting that went on here was when Romney was leading the state by around 20 points. I just don’t see an upset here at all, and if there was any real sign of life for Santorum, he would be LIVING here because the delegate prize is MUCH larger than Michigan being winner take all. If Santorum were to beat Romney in both AZ and Michigan, that really would be a knockout punch whereas a Michigan victory would likely mean it goes on to the Convention. Rick has basically ignored AZ in both time and money despite the delegate prize, which tells you he thinks it’s a long shot.
I think also what you’re going to see is Sanotrum is going to start bleeding support to Newt after the next debate and the fact that Newt is flush with cash from his Sugar Daddy. If the Wall Street Journal is correct, the Adelson money was given to Newt to pummel Santorum with.
If Romney can secure Michigan (and it looks like he’s clearly regained the momentum) with a convincing victory in AZ, I think he’ll secure the nomination without having to go through some sort of brokered Convention.
February 21st, 2012 at 9:57 am
In 2010 mid terms, Health Care was the Most Important Issue Facing Country Today only for 18% of people, of those majority, 51% voted Democrat, 47 voted Republican. Obamacare will not be number one issue anyway, but economy in general.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:01 am
Jason, come on, act like an adult.
From the way you talk I’ll wager I was a conservative campaigning for Reagan before you were born.
One thing we DIDN’T do was go around insulting our own teammates and trying to kick them out of the party.
And believe me, there was no love lost between the Bushies and the Reaganites.
And then Reagan chose Bush to be his running mate and we all made up and went after the liberals…….Nobody wanted to cannabalize the party. We were even trying to convert moderates and left-leaning Dems into conservatives.
We were out preaching the cause looking for converts; not trying to ethnic cleanse the party…
We were SERIOUS about beating the liberals…
February 21st, 2012 at 10:04 am
I am not so easily convinced as you are post 71 this is a pretty big economic issue and soon as Obama Brings it up those polls shict fast, they are all based on NEWS HEADLINES. Come on you seem smart I really mean that, you should know this.
Luckily, Romney will not matter as Santorum will be the nominee. Michigan will end Romney so for you all your hopes will either live or die after Michigan.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:07 am
according to a rasmussen tracking just released Santorum is within 2% of Obama
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
February 21st, 2012 at 10:07 am
69.
It’s the difference between a federal and state law. The Constitution puts far more restrictions on what type of laws Congress can pass. I’m not a fan of RomneyCare, but the mandate part is completely Constitutional according to the Massachusetts Constitution, it’s the equivalent of a state making a motorist buy car insurance. The mandate as a FEDERAL law, however, oversteps the authority of Congress in my opinion. I think it’s very likely the Supreme Court strikes that provision down
Romney can still make ObamaCare an issue, there’s plenty of differences. The cuts to MediCare to pay for it, all the new taxes and fines, the regulations, etc that share nothing with Romney’s approach in Massachusetts.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:07 am
Not very many posts on the Romney +4 over Obama national poll.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:12 am
Looks like money really does decide outcomes.
Everyone here knows I’m not a Romney supporter – but that comment is incorrect. Although money helps “decide outcomes” Mitt has actually been campaigning hard in Michigan. And like Iowa showed us – hard work pays off, too.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:14 am
Santorum’s Super Pac is reporting they have just doubled their ad buys in Michigan to total $600,000.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:16 am
It must be true then… The Santorum slip/slide has begun.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:17 am
After looking at the internals of this poll it looks like the rac is tied with “definate” and “probable voters”…the edge Mitt has is with “not sure voters”.
The internals also indicate a heavier undecided vote (for the most part) in the heavier Santorum regions of Michigan. RUM is going to have to firm up his regions before election night.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:18 am
Common Cents I agree but the problem is 2 fold. Its wrong to force people to buy things. Secondly it violated the 5th Amendment beccause Romney care removes the right to file suite in state court, this means their due process right under both the 14 and 5th amendments are violated. This too provides a good case to file suite in federal court on Romney care.
Lastly, most votes will see the Mandate hate it and as low infomation voters become aware of this fact, (assuming Romney some how finds a way to win Michigan), it will hurt Romney. You might not agree but think about it.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:22 am
I think it’s great that Santorum is spending what little money he has in a state that he is going to lose.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:31 am
The one thing that scares me about Santorum is that he has a short fuse, as evidenced in some of the earlier debates where his temper came off so obvious that SNL had him pegged in their satire representation of his mannerisms. Sure, he has toned it down recently and smiled more, but a leopard cannot change its spots. Gingrich also is not emotionally grounded and on top of that, we all know he has more issues than Time magazine. The only remaining candidates with steady temperaments are Paul and Romney. To me, having an even disposition is presidential. Why? Because I would not trust an emotionally erratic president to lead the nation with the nuke button at their hand. I like Paul, but I can’t accept some of his foreign policies. The ABR crowd want Santorum or Gingrich because they can “relate” to them and their passionate message but I’d much rather vote for a “boring” president like Mitt who can actually get things done and make calculated judgments without emotional mood swings any day. And folks need to remember, it’s the economy that’s the main issue this election, not social issues. If you compare Romney’s resume to that of any of the other 3 candidates, as likable as they may be, I feel they don’t have the same level of executive experience as Romney to turn this economy around.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:33 am
Smack1968 , I disagree with your reasoning. Santorum is stuck at 37% in the PPP poll and this poll is not accurate you can rest assured 22% undecided yea right.
In order for either to win it will come down to 2 things. Turnout if all else remains equal, not likely, or where Gingrich’s supporters go or stay. All Santorum needs is 4% according to the PPP poll to defeat Romney, If this does not happen its not a big deal, because the 6% of irrelevant will likely break 80% for Santorum, as all the undecideds that gave Romney 6% of his 11% increase from their last poll came from undecideds that Romney lost from his Co, Mo, and Mn, going back into Romney’s pocket.
The undecideds are likely going to mostly break for Santorum as they know Romney for the past 6years and are likely holding out to the last minute before they decide for sure who they will support. The debates will cause the 6% that remain undecided in PPP’s poll to either go for Santorum or give Romney another look if he knocks it out of the Park tomorrow. I think it will be a tie though because both men are pretty decent debators. Gingrich may perform well, but I think he is being ignored knowing while he is super smart he is super irrelevant at this late stage. If this was Iowa a good Gingrich debate would help him alot but now its highly discounted I would assume.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:40 am
81. Jason
I think the voters that hate ObamaCare and the mandate are going to vote Romney in a general election, even if he’s not “pure” on the topic. They’re certainly not going to vote for Obama.
It’s sort of like taxes and spending. Even though Republicans aren’t perfect on those issues, they’re far better than the Democrat alternative if you’re a fan of small government.
I would certainly prefer a better messenger to take on ObamaCare, but the other candidates are so fatally flawed that I think it’s a “punch in the face” worth taking and I still feel Romney can be effective at critiquing many parts of ObamaCare.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:41 am
My Man Mitt 4 President post#76 , look youngster thats because its Perceptions of who the Gop Thinks is more electable rather than who is getting more support in a head to head matchup. Read babe, that is the difference. Even in that poll Romney is not leading Obama. dont confuse perception of a Obama v. Romney race as actual support as a polls measures. I know its confusing.
You are reading the push poll the way the liberals at usatoday want it to be taken by non professionals.
The USA Today/Gallup results are based on perception of the candidacies “rather” than actual support in a head-to-head matchup.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:49 am
Common Cents, yea well if you read my above post #58, I said romney would get most Republicans in a general but you need around 84% at the minimum and 73% of Republicans going to vote from Romney if he were to somehow get the nomination away from Santorum is just not enough. Santorum gets around 93% in polls that measure general election match ups on the Intensity measure of a candidates strength with their own party. 73% is less that what McCain got in 2008, that is how your able to lose hardcore red states like Indiana. The base stayed home. Romney is even scoring lower than McCain on the intensity level from exit polls and if he lost Romney getting only 73% of Republicans will lead to another loss.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:56 am
When you nominate liberal republicans you lose as history showed us in 1976 with Ford, 1992 with Bush Sr., 1996 showed upsadly with Bob Dole, and John McLame showed us so depressingly in 2008.
WherEAS Reaganclobbered Carter in 1980 and again in 1884 against mondale. What happened with George Bush well he won also in 2000 and reelected in 2004.
When you nominate conservatives like Reagon you get HIGH TURNOUT among the base and that is how elections are won. Its all about turnout not poll support. To win you gotta get those bodies to the polling booths. Santorum shows in polls measuring intensity of 93% he is the man who can EXCITE REPUBLICANS.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:06 am
87.
We’re still in the midst of a bitter primary, and Santorum has not yet received the scrutiny Romney has, he’s viewed as a “generic Republican.” If Romney is the nominee, Republicans will start to “come home” especially if he puts a popular conservative on the ticket like Rubio. With Obama as a backdrop, I see Romney not having any issues with Republican voters.
I really don’t think we should nominate our candidates based on the 1% or so of conservatives that threaten to sit out elections. I’ve yet to see an election where that happens, independent and swing voters are what decide these things, and Santorum or Newt will be toxic.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:10 am
Common Cents, thats wishful thinking, if your theory was correct, then how do you explain McLame picking Sarah Palin to liven up the ticket in 2008?
February 21st, 2012 at 11:13 am
even with Palin McLame just got destroyed. The same Obama is on the ballot in 2012 if they didnt show up to beat him in 2008 then they wont this time. All those squishes that lost in 76, 1992, 1996, and 2008 were all so called MOST ELECTABLE according the GOP establishment. How many times are you going to fall for it?
February 21st, 2012 at 11:19 am
Common Cents your 1% you are stupid and i will not respond to you again, but since I am this last time, it was not 1% who sat out stupid that would mean if u were right 99% OF registered republicans in the nation voted thats insanely stupid.
try 26% who sat it out. that number can not go about 18% or you will lose in any general electon, for house or senate ot gov elections.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:32 am
92.
You’re becoming incoherent with your name calling, but the polling I’ve seen showed that McCain got almost identical conservative support that Bush 43 did in the general election, low base turnout was not the reason McCain lost, independent voters were.
Here is a good article regarding this urban legend:
http://legalinsurrection.com/2011/11/science-moderation-did-not-lose-mccain-the-election-and-is-an-asset-for-electability-and-that%E2%80%99s-why-the-establishment-acts-like-it-is/
Can you really with a straight face say that had Fred Thompson (the most conservative GOP contender in 2008) been the nominee, Obama would have lost bceause of greater conservative turnout? Of course not, 2008 was one of those elections that any candidate with (D) after their name was going to win.
Moderate Republicams have won landslides, Nixon in ’72 won 49 states and Bush Sr. destroyed Dukakis in 1988. i would Romney to the “Right” of both.
February 21st, 2012 at 12:47 pm
dateline needs to do a piece on this:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/romney/search.asp
February 21st, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Who is this Jason c***?
February 21st, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Santorum speak without thinking what he really want to say
February 21st, 2012 at 2:04 pm
John Galt….. Romney campaign needs to play this ad everywhere. It shows what a great person Mitt is!
February 21st, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Michigan Poll – Rasmussen
Santorum 38%
Romney 34%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/michigan/2012_michigan_republican_primary
February 21st, 2012 at 2:36 pm
The Rasmussen sample is
40% very conservative, 34% somewhat conservative, 26% other
And despite severely very conservative sample, Romney still leads 41-40 in certain of their vote category.
2008 Michigan Republican primary ideological distribution gives Romney 2 point lead from cross tabs.
February 21st, 2012 at 2:49 pm
[...] Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll of Michigan conducted for the Michigan Information & Research Service shows Romney gaining considerable [...]
February 21st, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Could someone post the link about Santorum and his talk about Satan? Tks.