InsiderAdvantage (R) Georgia 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Newt Gingrich 25.9% (54.1%) {17%} [9%] (12%)
- Mitt Romney 23.9% (12.4%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
- Rick Santorum 22.8% (1.7%)
- Ron Paul 11.7% (5.5%) {5%} [5%] (1%)
- Someone else 4.4% (0.7%) {4%} [4%] (4%)
- No opinion 11.3% (17.4%) {12%} [20%] (22%)
Among Republicans (69.5%)
- Newt Gingrich 29.2%
- Rick Santorum 25.4%
- Mitt Romney 19.2%
- Ron Paul 9.8%
- Someone else 4.2%
- No opinion 12.2%
Among Independents (27.5%)
- Mitt Romney 37.5%
- Newt Gingrich 17.7%
- Ron Paul 17.3%
- Rick Santorum 15.6%
- Someone else 2.7%
- No opinion 9.1%
Survey of 721 likely Republican primary voters was conducted February 20, 2012. Party ID: 69.5% Republican; 27.5% Independent; 3.1% Democrat. Results from the poll conducted December 8, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 3, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 18, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 2, 2011 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
February 21st, 2012 at 10:41 am
Woah.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:44 am
We will need some polling for Georgia after Mitt wins Arizona and Michigan. It will be a tight window, but if he wins both, he will get a bounce in Georgia. Mitt will be there after those 2 primaries…..and he’s been there recently.
It’s an open race in Georgia.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:44 am
If Romney wins Georgia, it’s over. That’s a big road win, in another candidate’s home state.
If Gingrich loses to either Mitt or Santorum, he’s out.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:46 am
What is really happening is that Santorum has half of Newt’s numbers leaving an opening for Mitt?
February 21st, 2012 at 10:47 am
Looking at this poll, what is there not to understand that the only one who can beat Obama in the general is Mitt. The Independents decide every single election not the Far Right or the Far Left.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:47 am
#3 Newt will never quit. This campaign is his life and he likes the spotlight.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:48 am
Does Romney really want to win Georgia? It makes for a nice, temporary headline, but it also probably sends Gingrich out of the race. I’m far from convinced that Romney can win the nomination essentially head to head with Santorum.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:49 am
“I’m far from convinced that Romney can win the nomination essentially head to head with Santorum.”
If he can win in Georgia, he can win a one-on-one.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:52 am
As Newt told Mitt – he (Newt) should quit the race if he does not win his home state! Not that it is his home state for some time. Technically, he already lost his real “home state” which is Virginia, so he should get out already!
February 21st, 2012 at 10:54 am
As stated over at HucksArmy, the Georgia GOP primary is NOT going to be made up of 27.5% indis. This race will be between Santorum and Gingrich….and I think that those undecides and a number of gingrich supporters will move to Santorum. I think Rick hits nearly 40% in GA.
February 21st, 2012 at 10:55 am
Newt is in big trouble everywhere.
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PublicPolicyPolling@ppppollsReply
Newt’s favorability is upside down in every state that votes next week- 39/46 in WA, 39/50 in MI, 43/48 in AZ
PublicPolicyPolling@ppppollsReply
Washington GOP numbers out in the next hour. Santorum leads by double digits
February 21st, 2012 at 10:56 am
I wonder what this is about. It’s developing
http://www.drudgereport.com/
Santorum is one scary candidate.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:00 am
Georgia’s delegate math:
If you win CD by majority, you get all that CD’s 3 delegates, plurality victory gives 2 delegates to winner, 1 to second. The at-large votes are proportional to everybody getting over 15% or 20%, don’t remember which. If Newt doesn’t get over 50% in most CDs it is not going to be a delegate boon, and winning your “political home state” against candidates who don’t have that same political home state, gives you zero momentum. So if he wins only Georgia, mostly under 50% in CD’s he is out anyway.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:00 am
Matthew Kilburn,
Not true. Polls show that Santorum wins twice as much of Gingrich’s support as Romney does. Which means that if Romney manages to win Georgia, it’s because Gingrich and Santorum are splitting the vote which is otherwise largely going to Santorum. Imagine Georgia ends up:
Romney 32%
Gingrich 30%
Santorum 27%
Paul 11%
Ok, now imagine Gingrich drops out, and Santorum wins 2/3′s of his support. Suddenly it’s:
Santorum 47%
Romney 42%
Paul 11%
And those numbers are repeated all through the South, with Santorum adding a few points, relative to Romney, in the more conservative Southern states (Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana) and losing a few in, say, North Carolina. That’s pretty much best case for Romney. That he loses the South by around 10 points overall (other than Virginia of course). With Santorum’s strength in the mid-west eclipsing his strength in the South, Romney will need to rack up a helluva lot of delegates in the northeast- excluding the regions second largest state (since it’s Santy’s home state)- and in California. Because nowhere else is he even a clear favorite in a race against Santorum.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:00 am
Among Independents
•Mitt Romney 37.5%
•Newt Gingrich 17.7%
•Ron Paul 17.3%
•Rick Santorum 15.6%
•Someone else 2.7%
•No opinion 9.1%
This is what will win Mitt the Presidency if he is our nominee
February 21st, 2012 at 11:01 am
Mitt has nearly 3 times as many delegates as Santorum, which will increase after winning Arizona, and getting his share in Michigan. Washington looks good, but is indeterminate.
The real question is what happens on Super Tuesday. Mitt has 5 of the 10 states locked up. So, the question is what happens in the other 5, which include Ohio, where he’s down by a lot, and Georgia, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. Here, the news is encouraging in that he may not lose big.
The Oklahoman, the largest newspaper in the state, has endorsed Romney. In Tennessee, the Governor has endorsed him. This poll shows him close in Georgia. And Michigan might boost him some in Ohio.
So, it should be a good night, but whether it will be a great night or not, we’ll have to hope for the best.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:03 am
Teemu,
Gingrich is delusional and on a vendetta against Romney. He doesn’t care about the math. Only losing his home state (after failing to get on the ballot in his other home state) could possibly convince him to withdraw. And he’ll be propped up enough by the media to steal a consistent 10% of the vote as long as he stays in. That probably hurts Romney’s chances of getting a majority of delegates but helps his chances of winning states.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:04 am
12,
I have to say although it seems like all the conservative media is against Mitt, it’s really nice to see Drudge is with his friend Ann Coulter and seems to be on Romney’s side.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:06 am
Wow. Just wow. I knew this was happening. I could feel it on the ground. Newt may be the local hero but his support has been slowly slipping away here in The Peach State since the first of the year. I still expect him to win but for it to be so close is still surprising.
Voting is already happening here. It began February 13th. Mitt could concievably carry Metro Atlanta again. I didn’t think that could happen this time given that there were two Georgians in the race but with Cain out and Gingrich sinking even here, it could happen again.
Mitt was in Atlanta two weeks ago for a public event and private fundraiser and was warmly received at both. I suspected then that internal polling must have been showing Georgia much closer than it had been weeks ago or he wouldn’t be spending time here.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:09 am
A Newt loss in Georgia would be a huge deal. A Newt 3rd place finish in Georgia, would be an even bigger deal. Not sure that’s going to happen, but he’s on that path trend-wise now.
If Romney & Santorum take 1/2 in Georgia, that could be the thing that knocks out Newt. And, as MEM pointed out – that could lead to a seriously difficult battle between Romney & Santorum, with Santorum actually having a potential advantage.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:10 am
In 2008 Georgia was basically three way tie, also the Democratic primary was at same time and the turnout was about the same as in Republican primary, since Georgia is open, maybe some of those 200k independent who voted in Dem primary in 2008 could give it to Romney?
February 21st, 2012 at 11:13 am
#21 Teemu
From your computer screen to gods eyes
February 21st, 2012 at 11:15 am
Interesting info in this poll.
Newt’s support cut approx in half, Mitt’s support approx doubled, and Santorum’s surge is really shown.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:15 am
Newt is effectively out of the race after Super Tues no matter what happens in GA. He has no prospects of winning any state except SC and maybe GA. But Newt may stay in anyway because of his ego and hopes that Santorum will collapse and he will be there to pick up the pieces.
On a side note, anyone see how Newt was calling on Romney to drop out of the race because he can’t even win his home state (in reference to polls in MI which is not even his home state)?
February 21st, 2012 at 11:18 am
12.
Nothing to see there. Just the leading candidate in the Republican primary talking about a Satan invasion. My guess is we will see a SNL Church Lady skit version 2012 soon.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:23 am
I’m not sure about how strong Santorum will be in mid west, he hasn’t won a single delegate allocating primary yet, just caucuses and Missouri beauty contest.
After Super Tuesday in March, in the Mid West, Illinois, which uses loophole system. McCain’s 47-29 victory over Romney in 2008 brought McCain 95% of the delegates.
Mark Kirk had 58 American Conservative rating, yet in the year of the the Tea Party, he got almost as high percentage of the primary votes as his ACU rating
. Illinois Republicans apparently prefer to win, which is good for Romney.
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2010&off=3&elect=2&fips=17&f=0
February 21st, 2012 at 11:24 am
*Illinois is the big post-Supertuesday prize meant to say.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:30 am
It would be very gratifying to see Newt go down in Georgia.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:31 am
Teemu,
Yes, Romney should win Illinois. But he’ll lose Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska and of course- possibly- Michigan. And he’ll lose the whole South other than Virginia and maybe North Carolina and Maryland. There’s not a lot of margin for error. It can’t be a good sign that he’s losing the liberal Washington- which has thrice nominated the establishment business man Dino Rossi- in some polls.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:44 am
29, MEM, didn’t Santorum fail to make the Indiana ballot?
February 21st, 2012 at 11:46 am
30
Yes, he did. He is in the process of challenging the decision on the grounds that his signatures collected prior to redistricting were thrown away in certain congressional districts which moved out of the areas where he received signatures.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:46 am
29.
I wouldn’t write of Ohio just yet. It seems like just yesterday, because it was, that most were saying that Romney was going to lose in MI. Now, not so certain.
The only thing constant in politics is change.
February 21st, 2012 at 11:52 am
It’s caucus, and PPP is trying to do more conservative and evangelical caucus sample for that. But however, Washington is 41% more Mormon than Colorado, and even there Mormon and other Romney vote was almost enough to compensate for cranky anti-establishment vote and evangelical vote, Colorado Springs is the home of James Dobson and Focus on the family, El Paso County in which it is located was responsible for almost half of Santorum’s victory margin. If you further take into account that Washington is less GOP than Colorado, the LDS population relative to GOP population is probably at least 50% higher in Washington than in Colorado. PPP really doesn’t seem to take into account LDS vote in Washington state in anyway.
http://www.slate.com/articles/life/map_of_the_week/2012/02/mormon_population_in_the_u_s_an_interactive_map.html
February 21st, 2012 at 11:53 am
You people are delusional! Newt is the only candidate that will put this country back on track. Have any of you actually looked at his plans and ideas? Please go to NEWT.org to inform yourself before getting on here and talking smack. Newt is on his way back up because he’s offering big solutions to the American people. Please don’t let the LSM and Repub establishment steal your vote.
February 21st, 2012 at 12:01 pm
February 21st, 2012 at 12:01 pm
The more women hear about Senator Santorum’s views on social issues, the less likely a majority of them will be to vote for him. I suspect what’s happenning in the state polls now is that male support for Santorum is staying the same but females are moving toward Romney, whom they perceive as moderate by comparison on such issues and certainly in temperament.
February 21st, 2012 at 12:07 pm
I’m not convinced yet that Romney is going to lose Washington.
For example, PPP’s sample is 50% EVANGELICALS.
I find that very hard to believe. At least 15-20% of the voters are going to be Mormon, and I don’t think that PPP’s numbers reflect that.
February 21st, 2012 at 12:09 pm
34,
I have actually looked at his plans and ideas….like his plan to put colony on the moon and make it the 51st state! Sorry, I’d rather support someone who is focused on building jobs than building moon colonies!
February 21st, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Stroker,
Newt has one idea, and that is to bring down Romney….he gave up trying to win the nomination after his big loss in Florida.
If Adelson is dumb enough to give him $100 Million, he will STILL lose. Too many people are on to him.
February 21st, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Newt might have some ideas, but he has no discipline or organization to implement. He’s an ideas man….and an undisciplined one at that time.
No thanks.
No, thanks, also, on Mr. Holier Than Thou Saintorum. Do some reading here. http://mittromneycentral.com/ or here http://unravelthesweater.com/
February 21st, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Whoa….I know someone already typed that, but WHOA!!!
This just made my day.
February 21st, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Go for the kill Romey win do everything you need to and uncle Ewt is no more
February 21st, 2012 at 1:03 pm
This is Newts backyard. He is expected to be ahead. But guys not with Romey on his tail like this. I like I like the Romney factor.
February 21st, 2012 at 1:04 pm
YES!!!!!!
YES!!!!!
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/291577/bolder-romney-tax-cut-plan-coming-larry-kudlow
February 21st, 2012 at 1:07 pm
I don’t trust this polling firm to be unbiased given the history of Matt Towry and Newt Gingrich… that said, if we have caught IA in a moment of truthfulness, this is very good news for Mitt. Say, wasn’t Newt running off his mouth the other day about what should happen should a candidate not win his ‘home’ state?
February 21st, 2012 at 1:29 pm
As much as I would love for Romney to upset Gingrich in Georgia, I don’t believe this poll. I think Newt will win there.
Sorry to toss cold water.
February 21st, 2012 at 1:33 pm
I don’t get why some people are flocking to Santorum. I think he is a great guy and an honest man but his only credentials are that he was a Senator twice and lost big the third time. He does not have the experience. Give him another 4 or 8 years and he will make a good candidate.
My 3 concerns about him today are that he cannot beat Obama, he will be a weak leader and that he seems to have that evangelical type tunnel vision wich excludes everyone accept his brand of Christianity.
February 21st, 2012 at 2:25 pm
If Romney beats Newt in Georgia, that really will force Gingrich out. He might technically stick around, but he’ll simply be a dead man walking. Also, I think we’ve established that many GOP voters are fair weather fans that simply follow the bandwagon. An upset is worth a lot more than the actual delegates. Santorum wasn’t even on the map until he won those 3 contests that Romney (unwisely) ignored because the delegate count was so few.
If I were advising Romney, I’d contest every single state until the other candidates had either withdrawn or the math truly was impossible. I wouldn’t get cute by letting Newt win a contest to take away votes from Santorum, or vice versa.
Full and overwhelming force to win every primary and caucus outright until it’s over needs to be the Romney strategy from here on out.
February 21st, 2012 at 2:26 pm
#36 I’m not so sure about the gender issue, we’ve been getting shellacked with women since 1992 even with social moderates, GHWBush, Dole, Bush and McCain consistently getting 33-43% of them (although GWBush got 49% in 2004, which I attribute more to the post-9/11 phenomenon than any real change in women’s attitudes about the Republican party). Women are far more pro-choice, all our candidates are pro life, so we start in a hole. I think most women who would be upset about Santorum’s views are gonna vote against us anyway. The socially conservative women (evangelicals, etc.) are going to vote for Santorum. I would be more worried about losing support of progressive men who are sypmathetic to women, then actually losing even more of the female share.
#47 I don’t think they are “flocking” to Santorum, I think they’re just choosing the best of this weak field. BTW, I’m not sure why running for reelection and losing big scores less points than not running again because you are gonna lose big (Romney). At least he tried. As for experience, Mitt was also in office exactly twice. And the President’s chief powers lie in foreign policy (domestically he chiefly acts by influencing others, such as congress) and Santorum has far more experience there than Romney. I think Romney is a good man, certainly a successful businessman, but I haven’t seen any proof that he’s good as a governmental executive. They’re both thin on experience. I’m more socially conservative so even though Santorum is by no means my first choice, I’m kind of stuck with him. I don’t adhere to his particular brand of Christianity, but I think he generally favors religious liberty notwithstanding his very particular personal views. I do not think for one minute he will try to outlaw contraception, for example. But I do think he will work to ensure that our government isn’t forcing religious institutions, whatever their stripe, to do things against their doctrines. So his religiosity doesn’t really scare me. I think the religious thing is more of a MSM point to try to demonize him and turn him into Jerry Falwell. The MSM hates religion, period. And if Mitt is our nominee, there will be no end to the liberal assault on Mormonism for the same reason.
As for electability, who knows if any of these guys can win. I think everyone is just how terrible the narrative is going to be if Mitt is our nominee. “The 1% strikes back!” I’m not saying that is correct, or fair, or how elections should be decided, but I’m pragmatic enough to realize that’s how it is going to play out. If Mitt was a modestly successful guy, or a guy who started in poverty and worked his way up, it would be different. But Americans just don’t like the generationally wealthy guys. They don’t identify with them. If Mitt is our nominee, I hope I’m wrong and I will support him, but I am not going to just assume he’s more electable.
February 21st, 2012 at 5:48 pm
49…I don’t see how you can put Santorum and Romney on an even par when it comes to experience. There is a reason why most presidents were former governors. It’s called leadership. It’s called being an executive. Just look at Obama. I’m not talking about his policies, I’m talking about his leadership skills…he has none. Santorum also has no leadership experience. This country is in too bad of shape to hand the presidency over to a novice. When it comes to Romney, you don’t start a company from scratch that goes on to become one of the world’s largest investment firms without knowing something about leadership.
In his faith, he was a bishop, leading a congregation of a couple hundred and then became a stake president in which he was over 8 to 10 congregations. All of this for no pay, all of this while working full time at his regular job.
Romney also, as you know, ran the Olympics and was governor. Not everything he did while governor do I totally agree with, but the vast majority I do. Show me any other conservative who could have done better job in Massachusetts than he did.
Socially, I don’t see much difference between Mitt and Rick, except Mitt is not near as radical. They both support strong family values, both have a strong belief in Christ, both oppose abortions, and both oppose same sex marriage.
The way I see it, Romney is the only candidate running that I can support at this time.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:43 am
A lot of the commments on this blog show that there is complete ignorance about these things