CNN/TIME/ORC Arizona 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 36%
- Rick Santorum 32%
- Newt Gingrich 18%
- Ron Paul 6%
- No opinion 6%
Among Men
- Mitt Romney 34%
- Rick Santorum 31%
- Newt Gingrich 21%
- Ron Paul 7%
- No opinion 5%
Among Women
- Mitt Romney 38%
- Rick Santorum 33%
- Newt Gingrich 15%
- Ron Paul 6%
- No opinion 7%
Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?
- Definitely support 58%
- Might change mind 34%
Survey of 467 likely Republican primary voters was conducted February 17-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
February 21st, 2012 at 6:01 pm
4 days to find 467 respondents? In any case, it looks a little closer in AZ
February 21st, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Romney has a HUGE lead among voters who have early voted, which started Feb. 2nd in the state. So the same argument can be made that was made in Florida, if they are even on election day then Romney still wins by 5 or 6 % just based on his HUGE lead in early voting
February 21st, 2012 at 6:12 pm
What % do they think have voted early?
February 21st, 2012 at 6:15 pm
2 Arizona polls out in the same day, and Mitt leads in one by 4 points and by 10 in the other. If they are both scientific, then, given normal MOEs, the truth should be somewhere inbetween. The 4 days it took to compile this is a bit of a red flag, though.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:18 pm
In this poll Mitt is ahead of Santorum in Maricopa County by only 38-32%.
However, Mitt is going good with Santorum at being tied at 33% outside of Maricopa County. Newt is getting 20% of the vote outside Maricopa County which, is cutting into any chance of Santorum springing a surprise in AZ.
Newt is going to have to fall big time for Santorum to catch Mitt. Most of the votes are in Maricopa County, and if Santorum does not get big margins outside the county he will come up short.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:20 pm
Drip, drip, drip.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:21 pm
200,000+ have voted as of last Wednesday. 600,000 voted in the 08 primary. So 33% had voted during a time when Romney had led by double digits….
Intrade has this right. Romney will win Arizona. Michigan though- I’m just not sure about yet.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:22 pm
Smack,
Don’t count on all of Gingrichs supporters to automaticall go to Romney, I believe most will go to Mitt, especially after Santorum’s Satan, birth control, and many other religous offensive comments he’s made over the past few days. Mitt will win Arizona by double digits, take it to the bank.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:24 pm
Ohio Joe,
Keep Dreaming
Husky,
Thanks for the input, and don’t worry about Michigan, Mitt will win it!
February 21st, 2012 at 6:26 pm
The debate tomorrow will matter a lot.
Things that will come up:
John King: “Senator Santorum, do you believe Satan is targeting America?”
Audience: “BOOOOOOOOOO”
Santorum: “John, that’s out of line. I’m a Christian and I’m not going to apoligize”
Audience: “YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH *rousing applause and standing ovation*”
Mitt: “*explains tax plan*”
Audience: “YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!! *rousing applause*”
John King: “Senator Santorum, do you believe Obama is a Muslim?”
Santorum: “No”
Audience: “BOOOOOOOOOOOO”
February 21st, 2012 at 6:28 pm
“and don’t worry about Michigan, Mitt will win it!” that is what you characters said about Iowa, SC, MO, MN and CO. It did not work out that well for ya did it. The meltdown continues as the Romneyites over-reach.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:28 pm
CNN website had this poll as breaking news crawler saying somethink like this : “Romney and Santorum in statistical tie in Arizona”. Do I detect some promotional debate hype?
February 21st, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Rasmussen released the Poll early they were going to release it on Saturday but I suspect the 2 romney polling Firms that showed it tied or Romney up by 2% Rasmussen wanted to poll and see if those number were outliers and it appears yes they were.
Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll last night of 750 likely Michigan voters and founf nearly the same numbers as PPP did in their Michigan poll. According to Rasmussen Santorum 38% to Romney’s 34%.
Clown Paul gets 11% and Gingrich 10%
1% want another candidate and 8% remain undecided. The Rasmussen poll was conducted interviews all on 1 day of the 20th, So this poll is very fresh.
Looks like Romney is not getting much bang for all his money. With all his establishment help and money how is it possible a underfunded candidate Santorum can take down this Romney Giant?
Conservatives are sick of squishey moderate.liberal R.I.N.O.’s that why.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:29 pm
Opps forgot the link Rasmussen Michigan poll link is here. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/michigan/2012_michigan_republican_primary
February 21st, 2012 at 6:31 pm
“specially after Santorum’s Satan, birth control, and many other religous offensive comments he’s made over the past few days.” While the Romneyites pretend to take offense, the regular votes flock towards Mr. Santorum. Notice the hypocrisy of the Romney camp. They attacked Mr. Cain and Mr. Gingrich because they supposedly were immoral. Now, all of a sudden, the Romneyites are outraged at morality. Fingers in the wind. Ya gotta love it.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:32 pm
Jason,
The race is tied, the margin of error is +/- 4%…nice try though
The fact is the race is trending towards Romney b/c voters are seeing Santorum for the man he really is, someone who can’t fix the economy but can preach hate and spew at the mouth everyday giving the media and Obama material everyday, in the end they will vote for Romney b/c he is the sensible one.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:36 pm
“Drip, drip, drip.”
I think you should have a doctor check that out for you Joe.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:37 pm
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/21/romney-supporter-in-arizona-urges-course-correction/
“He is certainly not ahead by 20 points like he was a few weeks ago after Florida,” Pullen said. “On election day, I think Rick Santorum is going to win. But I think early balloting is going to Mitt. I think enough votes have already been cast.”
After watching Santorum address a mid-day luncheon sponsored by the Maricopa County Republican Party, Pullen said he admired the Pennsylvanian’s easy rapport with conservative activists and wished Romney had similar instincts.
“They really like the guy,” Pullen said of Santorum. “You saw the speech today. It comes from the heart. Santorum connects with people. Unfortunately, my guy has a hard time doing that.”
——————————————–
Keep that in mind……even if the AZ exit polls show Santorum ahead, by lets 3%, it very well might not be enough because of early voting.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:38 pm
William, dram baby dream, I know you must be hurting and I actually get off on that. Eat shit and suffer your loss punk, Oh and you as well as I, know that if this poll showed Romney leading you would not mention the Margin of error. It is not tied those undecided will mostly break for Santorum I suspect, and several of Gingrich’s percentages will drift over to Santorum.
I expect Santorum to win this by 5-7% on Tuesday the 28th.
I suggest you buy some strong happy pills so you dont get to upset.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:39 pm
#10
John King: “Senator Santorum, do you believe Obama is a Muslim?”
Santorum: “No”
Audience: “BOOOOOOOOOOOO”
I’d answer it like this
John King: “Senator Santorum, do you believe Obama is a Muslim?”
Santorum: “I don’t know. His policies have attacked the religious liberty of Churches across America. Whatever he is he needs to go.”
February 21st, 2012 at 6:39 pm
“The fact is the race is trending towards Romney” Huh???? In what world?
February 21st, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Jason,
Watch the lanquage.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:42 pm
12
Yes. They actually have a history of doing this, btw.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:42 pm
“and wished Romney had similar instincts.” That says it all. The guy does not have Conservative instincts.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:43 pm
PPP had Romney up 3 two days ago. Nothing has changed in Arizona!
February 21st, 2012 at 6:44 pm
“Nothing has changed in Arizona!” What about the double digit blowout you guys were talking about?
February 21st, 2012 at 6:45 pm
William, also trending my skinny butt. This same firm showed Santorum with a 3% lead in their last poll. Now it is 4%. Trending toward Santorum more like it.
this link on real clear politics shows if you look down the polling tab that this lead has grown by 1% from a 3% Santorum lead to now a 4% lead for Santorum.
Trends not with this firm willy. This means all of Romney money for the past 2 weeks had none zilch for him. Morals trupms money.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:46 pm
“This means all of Romney money for the past 2 weeks had none zilch for him.” Yup, all down the crapper. Mr. Romney needs a bailout now.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:46 pm
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_republican_presidential_primary-1589.html
here is the link if you look down you will see Santorums lead in the last rasmussen poll
February 21st, 2012 at 6:51 pm
econ grad stud here is the answer to is Obama a muslim by his own admission. OOOPPPS can we say a little freudian slip????
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EaP336MhNk
February 21st, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Right…. Cause Romney is such a immoral man…
Sarc/
February 21st, 2012 at 7:02 pm
“Cause Romney is such a immoral man…” Funny how he is no longer on his moral high horse anymore. He found his match and he is now sour. This has not helped him in the polls.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:17 pm
JASON – WATCH YOUR MOUTH. If you want to be taken seriously here, clean up your act. Else, go to Townhall with all the other foul-mouths.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:30 pm
I kept telling yall that Romney wouldn’t be able to smear Santorum as easily as he had Newt.
February 21st, 2012 at 8:31 pm
If Santorum has a good debate tomorrow.. I think it will be the last and that Santorum will then win the nomination in a landslide. If Gingrich has an amazing debate tomorrow, that’s big trouble for Santorum
February 21st, 2012 at 8:52 pm
#35 – Yes, if Santorum wins, meaning he is not been hurt by the
questions related to social issues and he lands tough shots on Romney, then
he will get the undecides and win MI and narrow the margin in AZ. He would then
win OH and at least half the Super Tuesday contests.
Only a concerted effort by the party would be able to stop him.