University of Texas/Texas Tribune 2012 Texas Primary Poll
- Rick Santorum 45%
- Newt Gingrich 18%
- Mitt Romney 16%
- Ron Paul 15%
The latest UT/Texas Tribune internet survey of 800 Texas voters was conducted from Feb. 8-15, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.46 percent. Questions asked only of 371 Republican voters have a margin of error of +/- 5.09 percent; questions of 529 likely voters in general elections have a margin of error of +/- 4.26 percent.
Inside the numbers:
Slightly more than half of GOP voters are satisfied with the choices in their presidential candidate field, while 34 percent said they are unsatisfied. What are they seeking? Someone with the ability to beat President Obama was chosen by 45 percent, followed by someone with high standards and character (25 percent), someone who shares issue views (20 percent) and someone who has the right experience (8 percent).
“It could change again, and it will change,” said Jim Henson, who co-directs the UT/TT poll, teaches government at UT-Austin and heads the Texas Politics Project there. “There’s no reason to think this is static. Nothing about this GOP race, either in Texas or in the country, has been static.”
One thing has remained consistent: All four Republicans would beat Obama in a general election in Texas. In head-to-head matchups with the president, Santorum would win 51 percent to 37 percent among likely voters, Gingrich by 49 percent to 38 percent, Romney by 49 percent to 36 percent, and Paul by 44 percent to 35 percent.
Santorum is the only Republican in the race who received more favorable grades than unfavorable grades from voters.
Santorum was rated “very” or “somewhat” favorably by 42 percent of voters and “very” or “somewhat” unfavorably by 31 percent.
Romney was rated favorably by 27 percent of voters and unfavorably by 48 percent.
Gingrich’s numbers were 33 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable, and Paul’s were 30 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable.
Obama had relatively high favorable ratings — 40 percent — but also had the highest unfavorable grades, at 55 percent.
Hat-tip: Granny T
February 20th, 2012 at 11:04 am
(1) Texas is proportional
(2) Texan opinions are slaves to the national buzz, they know little about what’s going on compared to the upcoming states.
(3) Texas doesn’t vote for over 2 months.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:04 am
ill look at texas polls again if/when it matters later this year.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:05 am
noot!
February 20th, 2012 at 11:08 am
Most likely Texas primary date May 29 or after.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:08 am
Seems like Giuliani was up by a margin similar to this when their Primary was this far out….course he finished 3rd. Seems he had a ton of negative momentum going into it.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:09 am
BTW,
Interesting that Santorum temporarily has this kind of lead and beats Obama by 14, while Mitt is at 16% and beats Obama by 13%.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:11 am
#6:
Translation: Obama stinks; a turnip could beat him in Texas.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:13 am
Texans hate Romney, he has always polled horrible here
February 20th, 2012 at 11:13 am
Lucky for Newt he got that coveted Rick Perry endorsement!
If you want to know how it is that Rick Santorum is ahead nationally over Romney by 8 pts, look no further than the South, and do the math.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:16 am
PublicPolicyPolling@ppppollsReply
Retweet
Santorum (+34 at 61/27) is more popular in AZ than Romney (+24 at 58/34): http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/romney-lead-small-in-arizona.html
Romney leads Santorum by just 3 in Arizona, 36-33. Gingrich at 16%, Paul at 9%: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/romney-lead-small-in-arizona.html
February 20th, 2012 at 11:16 am
You can thank Texas for two-thirds of our illegal immigration problem.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:17 am
#9 yep the South and Upper Mid West will hand the nomination to Santorum
February 20th, 2012 at 11:17 am
Only 8% care if someone has experience?! What’s wrong with people?!! I don’t get it. If you’re going to the dentist or doctor don’t you want someone with experience? POTUS is a fairly important job. Isn’t it?
February 20th, 2012 at 11:20 am
PublicPolicyPolling@ppppollsReply
Retweet
Romney strong in Arizona with women, Hispanics, seniors, moderates and ‘somewhat conservative’ voters: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/romney-lead-small-in-arizona.html
Santorum winning Tea Party, Evangelicals, ‘very conservative’ in AZ, but by much smaller margins than in MI:
* moderates again keeping Romney afloat while conservative once again donn’t want anything to do with him.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:20 am
There are three reasons I don’t think Texans will vote for Mitt
1. Rick Perry
2. Evangelicals
3. Uhhhhhh
Oops.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:23 am
Come on Texas…..I’m scared because anyone who would vote Rick Perry into office over and over and over………well, enough said!
February 20th, 2012 at 11:25 am
This is a bad sign for Gingrich, his only support was coming from Southerners.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:28 am
Sheesh, Mitt. You really shouldn’t have courted controversy with your arboreal pronouncements pandering to Michigan. Texans, what with their drought-dessicated trees, are clearly offended by such an off-handed dis!
February 20th, 2012 at 11:29 am
Romney was rated favorably by 27 percent of voters and unfavorably by 48 percent.
You reap what you sow.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:30 am
Did I forget to post that PPP sucks on this thread?
February 20th, 2012 at 11:31 am
John Mark,
Newt is also getting blown out in Oklahoma, a state he was leading (by a lot).
Yeah, it’s a two man race, and honestly, I’m pretty close to giving it 50/50 odds.
Mitt has proven much weaker than even I thought he was.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:33 am
#14 Killjoy,
* moderates again keeping Romney afloat while conservative once again donn’t want anything to do with him.”
This is why once Mitt makes it throught this primary as the nominee he will defeat Obama, NO other Rep running has a shot against Obama. Moderates and Indies will vote for him in droves. GOP will consol around Mitt once he picks his VP, that VP better be a Southern Tea Party favorite…Rubio/Huck/McDonnell…etc.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:33 am
Mitch Daniels up to 1% on Intrade!
LOL!
February 20th, 2012 at 11:34 am
Mitt never had a chance in heck of getting the nomination in the Republican party at least Too many people listen to the liberal talking heads on TV instead of listening to the base of the party which actually votes.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:35 am
Ray,
“This is why once Mitt makes it throught this primary as the nominee he will defeat Obama, NO other Rep running has a shot against Obama. Moderates and Indies will vote for him in droves.”
Perhaps. But perhaps, like McCain, he will be spending precious resources and good will at the Convention and in the Fall campaign still trying to consolidate and gin up the base.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:35 am
#22 that is exactly why Romney would give Obama a 35 state landslide, because the base will stay home even more than they did with McCain and Dole
February 20th, 2012 at 11:37 am
There are three reasons I don’t think Texans will vote for Mitt…
I think that joke deserves one of these:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X_Ot0k4XJc
February 20th, 2012 at 11:40 am
INTERNET POLL????? Ron Paul GROUP must not have known about this one…..
February 20th, 2012 at 11:41 am
When exactly is Texas even having a primary? Do we know? Do they know? This race could be over by the time Texas figures it out or Texas could end up making the difference.
February 20th, 2012 at 11:54 am
#25 Matt
“Perhaps. But perhaps, like McCain, he will be spending precious resources and good will at the Convention and in the Fall campaign still trying to consolidate and gin up the base.”
Well I’ll take our chances at this point. Mitt “Needs” to pick a VP that excites the far right wing of the party, he already has us right of center folk. The “base” in this party have to realize that the country as a whole is in the center (leaning a bit to the right). Indies view the republican far right as crazy as the far Left Loonies….If the GOP wants to commit political suicide then keep putting up these social conservatives…..This election is all about saving this country from financial ruin….while Social issues are important they are not what will get a Republican elected to the highest office in the country/world.
#26 Killjoy
“that is exactly why Romney would give Obama a 35 state landslide, because the base will stay home even more than they did with McCain and Dole”
At least Mitt has a shot in the battleground states, Santorum/Newt or Paul has NO shot at all…None
February 20th, 2012 at 11:56 am
#30 Santorum would rock in the upper mid west (where he is stomping Mitt)
February 20th, 2012 at 11:57 am
#30 the battleground states would shift from the old Bush battleground states to the rust belt states is all
February 20th, 2012 at 12:04 pm
#32
Well as an Indie I have no desire to vote for Newt or Santorum….Will I? Of course I would but my heart sinks when I think of that possibility.
February 20th, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Mitt “Needs” to pick a VP that excites the far right wing of the party
I agree with that IF Mitt is the nominee. Who should Santorum pick IF he’s able to seal the nomination?
February 20th, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Lol at 42% “very conservative” sample, 2008 AZ was 30% “very conservative”. I don’t think any primary broke 40 percent in “very conservative” only caucuses have done that.
February 20th, 2012 at 12:14 pm
35 comment was supposed to go PPP AZ thread.
February 20th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Shouldn’t Paul be doing better in his home state?
February 20th, 2012 at 1:12 pm
“Who should Santorum pick IF he’s able to seal the nomination?”
Rudy Giuliani? Seriously, I doubt it would matter.
February 20th, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Texas elected Rick Perry. nuff said.