SoonerPoll Oklahoma 2012 GOP Primary Survey
- Rick Santorum 39% (2%)
- Mitt Romney 23% (14%)
- Newt Gingrich 18% (33%)
- Ron Paul 8% (4%)
- Undecided 13% (24%)
Survey of 278 likely Republican primary voters was conducted February 8-16, 2012. The margin of error is ± 5.66 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 17 – December 16, 2011 are in parentheses.
Courtesy of The Argo Journal
February 19th, 2012 at 10:05 am
Not that I expect Romney to win OK…but, an 8-day poll, really?
February 19th, 2012 at 10:06 am
#1:
Yeah, and a high margin of error. Hopefully Rasmussen and PPP will start polling there.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:29 am
The GOP just doesn’t get it at all.The Republican base has never been behind Romney 100%.
Why ????? one word ! ROMNEYCARE and now this crazy talk on FOX about Jeb Bush !
Jeb Bush unelectable ! one word ” BUSH”
When if ever are these fools gonna realize,that Sarah Palin is their only chance at
taking back the white house from OBAMA. I sometimes think we got a bunch of idiots
doing the bidding..Americans are fed-up,they want someone new and fresh with big
ideas. More of the same old same old ;ain’t going to cut it this time.
Govenor Palin 2012.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:34 am
Palin is going nowhere. Get over it!
February 19th, 2012 at 10:44 am
Romney will now lose Arizona as well as Michigan on Feb 28. AZCentral has an address based poll online (sorry, AZ residents only) that has Santorum now up by 10 points after the gay sex scandal involving Romney’s Arizona Co-Chairman Paul Babeu. Babeu tried to threaten his gay lover into silence about the nature of their relationship, and that ain’t playing well here.
Obama will kill Romney over this, Romneycare, flip-flopping, etc. Romney is NOT electable!!!!!
Vote Santorum or get another 4 years of Obama.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:47 am
“Vote Santorum or get another 4 years of Obama.”
Then perhaps I’ll take Obama. If the GOP can’t rally around competence and experience when it gets handed to the party on a silver platter, I am entirely unconvinced that it deserves and kind of power at all. And if that means four more years of disastrous liberal leadership from Obama/Pelosi/et. al., well perhaps the party would finally wake up and find some common sense.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:51 am
I have ZERO confidence in Santorum’s ability to turn this country around. none. He has no executive experience, no leadership experience, no private sector experience, and an indignant personality which is far more about whining about what is happening than actually changing it.
As much as I might agree with Santorum on a wide range of issues, I have zero tolerance or interest for anyone who could be characterized as even mildly ineffective.
We need a President who will start DOING things on day one, and not stop DOING things until day 1460, and who will hopefully be able to start right back up with day 1461, and go for another four years.
I’m not voting for a Republican until they prove to me they can reverse the course of this country.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:57 am
Matthew Kilburn, I’ve got one question for you buddy (and the answer will say all we need to know):
IF Sarah Palin is the eventual GOP nominee vs. Obama, will you vote for Palin?
February 19th, 2012 at 10:58 am
I’ll pose the above question to all commenters here.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:59 am
Remember when Santorum interrupted Romney during the debates? He has a habit of doing that with his opponents:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdMuX-f7rOU&feature=youtu.be
February 19th, 2012 at 10:59 am
9.
With me, the answer is no. Palin will never get my vote.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:02 am
OK krissmith, are you saying or implying that you prefer that Obama be POTUS on 1/20/12 IF the only alternative is Palin?
February 19th, 2012 at 11:03 am
correction, 1/20/13
February 19th, 2012 at 11:03 am
5 The Arizona Central poll allows the same person to click time after
time. Almost all the Paul votes in it occurred on the same day i
suspect by a few people or perhaps even one. I would not read anything
into that poll
February 19th, 2012 at 11:03 am
“IF Sarah Palin is the eventual GOP nominee vs. Obama, will you vote for Palin?”
No. The further Sarah Palin is from any position of power, the better. She strikes me exactly as Santorum does – an underqualified rabble rouser with little to no ability to turn things around. Not unlike Obama, I think they’re both perfectly effective at one thing: complaining about the current occupant of the Oval Office.
Where they ever to get power, I highly doubt their abilities would allow them to turn this country around like it needs.
I MIGHT be able to vote for a Compromise candidate like Jeb Bush, who has executive experience and some decent history of leadership. Even if Santorum were to win, maybe I could support him if he proved somehow that he could be an effective President.
But as I’ve said, if this party rejects Romney, I’m going to have to hold my nose to vote for ANY Republican for President in November.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:07 am
This is actually a 9 day poll with an average of 30-31 respondents a day.
Good grief.
I think we at RACE42012 should run our own poll.
Teledude can make all the phone calls and I will do the weighing of the sample and will record all the results.
You guys trust us…right?
February 19th, 2012 at 11:08 am
12.
I’m saying that, as sad as it sounds, I trust Obama not to be an airhead in the white house, agree or disagree with anything he does.
Obama is not a competent president, but Palin inspires zero confidence in me.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:10 am
NoMoreModerates,
Correct.
Babeu will have no influence….non story.
Yes, it would have been FPP if he was a Rick or Newt guy…no doubt.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:10 am
#5 LOL, nice try. Romney now beats Santorum on Intrade to win the Michigan primary. Those who were betting on that a week ago when the odds were bellow 50% probably made a lot of money
And Arizona is probably in the bag. Romney has an 80% chance of winning and the other candidates are not even campaigning there.
#6 If Obama wins reelection he’ll probably appoint the replacements for Thomas and Scalia who are about to retire. Saying you’ll support Obama if Romney doesn’t win is not very helpful if we expect these clown to vote for Romney in November.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:15 am
I want to see some polls from ND, ID, WA, VT, and AK. Those states vote on super Tuesday and we haven’t seen any polls from any of them.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:16 am
Well, WA votes on the 3rd, but you know what I meant.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:19 am
Santorum staffers keep leaking that when Rick is elected President of the United States of America, he will nominate Sarah Palin to a Secretary of the Department of the Interior. If these rumors are true, I think she would be an excellent choice as Sarah was “Chairman of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.”
As the Interior Dept, is responsible with issuing permits to explore and drill oil and natural gas, this is a perfect position for a Pro Oil “DRILL BABY DRILL” Palin!
February 19th, 2012 at 11:25 am
23.
Making such a leak to get more support…
I could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure it is considered unethical to make that kind of move….though perhaps not since my source for that is kind of questionable. (Keith Obblerman said it when Gingrich made a similar statement in order to get support.)
February 19th, 2012 at 11:27 am
krissmith777 to get support, have you taken a look at the polls lately?
February 19th, 2012 at 11:27 am
I thought I would share this interesting article from The Guardian Newspaper. It talks about how Newt’s remaining in the race actually helps Mitt Romney on Super Tuesday. It goes over each state’s delegate rules and how Mitt is set up to actually win a majority of the delegates.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/feb/19/how-newt-gingrich-helps-mitt-romney-win
February 19th, 2012 at 11:34 am
Conservative for Romney, DUh that is why sugar daddy Sheldon Adelson injected another $10 million in Gingrich’s Super Pac. Though Rick Santorum is not needing Gingrich to get out as Santorum won Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota. Plus Santorum is leading in Washington state, Ohio and Michigan, along with a few southern states.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:36 am
The Gingrich/Romney meltdown continues.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:40 am
I played with the delegate calculator enough over the last few days to be convinced that Santorum can’t win a majority of delegates with Newt in the race. Santorum bumps his head at around 800 delegates, because Romney is always going to to well in big, blue states, and Newt is always going to do well in Southern states. If Newt wanted to stop Romney, he’d drop out now and endorse Santorum.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:44 am
DaveG, Look at the polls. Washington State is Blie so is Michigan to a lesser degree. Wishful thinking does not equal a Win for Romney. Santorum is going to be the nominee likely clinching it in June. A long time but will take that long unless Gingrich gets out or his supporters leave and join Santorum as they see Santorum rack up win after after win after win after win!
February 19th, 2012 at 11:50 am
PPP according to their twitter feed, is going to release a poll in the next few days showing Santorum leading Romney in the state of Washington by +10 or more.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:52 am
32.
PPP? What do they know? Their CO Poll was off by 15.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:52 am
“PPP according to their twitter feed, is going to release a poll in the next few days showing Santorum leading Romney in the state of Washington by +10 or more.”
PPP is more useful for trends than actual numbers…They had Santorum up 15% on Romney in Michigan, no other poll had him more than 10% up.
February 19th, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Matthew Kilburn, no other poll is more close to the numbers on election night so who cares. PPP is my choice poll not because I like them showing my Santorum candidate in the lead, but because they are the only poll this primary season that is anywhere near the ACTUAL OUTCOME on Election Night.
I know this means nothing to you and I really dont care. Self delusion is a very normal physiological way to deal with things one DOES NOT LIKE. I just couldn’t resist the urge to out you for you excuse as to explain Romney dying on the vine.
You know as well as I, that if PPP showed Romney leading in Washington instead of Santorum you would think PPP is god’s holy word.
February 19th, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Washington is a caucus state which makes it a different animal.
2008
Washington primary
McCain 50%
Huckabee 24
Washington caucus
McCain 26%
Huckabee 24%
You can argue the validity of this poll but it looks believable. Santorum is essentially where Newt was a month ago.
February 19th, 2012 at 12:32 pm
Franklin and a win still means more delegates. Primaries in Ohio and Michigan will mean nothing to you. You will find an excuse to explain away Romney’s 6th and 7th losses. Arizona looks like a win for Romney and Michigan looks good for a Santorum win. So after Feb 28TH after having eleven (11) states vote, Romney will have New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, and Maine. Assuming Romney wins Arizona on the 28th of Feb, only winning 5 out of 11 states which amounts to a 45% win rate.
Santorum will won several swing states by Feb 28th, which is a good sign for a general election. Santorum will have won 5 also assuming he wins Michigan on Fev 28th, which looks very likely.
Adding Michigan to Santorum’s win column means he also will have won 5 out of eleven (11) states that have already voted in 2012. they are Iowa, Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota and Michigan.
Giving Santorum also a 45% win rate.
Gingrich won one (1) state, that being South Carolina. Giving him a 0.09% win rate.
So Super win settle the score as we will be in a tie.
February 19th, 2012 at 12:34 pm
So Super Tuesday will settle this Nomination fight for all intense and purposes.
February 19th, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Jason,
Agree with you for the most part,except that Michigan seems like a likely Santorum win, Romney MUST win Michigan b/c he will have so much negative media against him if he doesn’t, not that he doesn’t already but it will intensify if he loses his home state. With all that said I think MI is still Romney territory, especially after a 14 day barrage of ad’s, Romney will win Michigan by about 5-10 points when all is said and done
February 19th, 2012 at 1:14 pm
So, not the most reliable poll, but I like the results.
No politician can turn the country around. We need a spiritual revival for that.
Even economically, I doubt the government can actually turn around the economy. It can only assist or hinder it.
Santorum and Romney can both assist the economy.
February 19th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
6. Of course you will. Rombots are basically liberal at heart and have little loyalty to the Republican party. Like spoiled children who don’t get their way, so the temper tantrums increase amid threats of leaving the republican party if Romney doesn’t win the nomination. Thank goodness conservatives and evangelicals are a little more mature about things.
February 19th, 2012 at 1:26 pm
7.
Get off your high horse.
I think your predictions have been ‘mildly ineffective’…to say the least
February 19th, 2012 at 1:30 pm
20.
Thank goodness we don’t depend on ‘Intrade’ to decide our elections
February 19th, 2012 at 1:34 pm
35.
‘I know this means nothing to you and I really dont care. Self delusion is a very normal physiological way to deal with things one DOES NOT LIKE. I just couldn’t resist the urge to out you for you excuse as to explain Romney dying on the vine.’
I like it.
February 19th, 2012 at 1:37 pm
40.
‘No politician can turn the country around. We need a spiritual revival for that.’
Amen.
February 19th, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Votes cast in Missouri primary were 8.4% of votes cast in Missouri 2008 general election.
Iowa 7.7%.
Colorado 2.7%
Minnesota 1.7%
Really promising, you can make great conclusion based on these caucuses and beauty contests, not…
February 19th, 2012 at 3:45 pm
I do think that both Arizona and Michigan are going to be very close. The delegate split could be close to 50-50 in Michigan. Also there could be a convention fight over Arizona as well as Florida. Arizona is breaking the rules by making it winner take all.
February 19th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
45:
Florida’s original plan was “South Carolina proportional”, meaning Gingrich would have gotten 2-4 of the north border congressional districts and their delegates, just like Romney got only one congressional district and it’s delegates in SC. You are allowed to try to challenge for anything ,but it isn’t going to go through.
February 19th, 2012 at 4:03 pm
Jack,
Are you drunk? Sarah isn’t on the ballot, she will not be on the 2012 presidential Republican ticket……end of story. Your worship of her is somewhat disurbing.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:10 pm
I will vote for one candidate only – Mitt Romney. Santorum is Obama 3 years ago – I cannot rely on hope and change to get the job done. Plus there’s no 90-day probationary period where if he doesn’t work out he gets kicked out. No, done with hoping on green, untried, no experience applicants with overhyped emotions. Going with actual proven leadership.