Rasmussen 2012 Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
- Barack Obama 47% (49%) {48%} [47%] (47%) {49%} [48%] (48%) {49%} [50%] (48%) {47%} [48%] (49%) {47%} [46%] (45%) {46%} [47%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (46%) {45%} [46%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (44%)
- Mitt Romney 43% (41%) {42%} [43%] (43%) {42%} [42%] (41%) {42%} [40%] (42%) {43%} [42%] (42%) {43%} [44%] (45%) {45%} [43%] (42%) {41%} [43%] (42%) {42%} [43%] (43%) {43%} [43%] (44%)
- Barack Obama 48% (48%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {49%} [49%] (48%) {46%} [46%] (44%) {46%} [48%] (48%) {46%} [47%] (45%) {45%}
- Rick Santorum 42% (40%) {41%} [41%] (42%) {41%} [41%] (41%) {42%} [42%] (45%) {44%} [40%] (38%) {39%} [37%] (34%) {31%}
Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted February 16-18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. Results from the poll conductedFebruary 15-17, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 14-16, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 13-15, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 12-14, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 11-13, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 10-12, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 9-11, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conductedFebruary 8-10, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 6-8, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 5-7, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 4-6, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 3-5, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 2-4, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 1-3, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 30 – February 1, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conductedJanuary 29-31, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 28-30, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 27-29, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 26-28, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 24-26, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 23-25, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 22-24, 2012are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 21-23, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-22, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conductedJanuary 17-21, 2012 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
February 19th, 2012 at 9:22 pm
Wow, Mitt gains 4 on Obama and Santorum gains 2. Good sign.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:25 pm
So:
Good news for Romney in the Michigan poll.
Good news for Romney in the Rasmussen tracking.
Is Gallup next?
February 19th, 2012 at 9:28 pm
PublicPolicyPolling – tweets
63% in MI think Santorum’s ideologically ‘about right.’ Only 42% say that for Mitt, 37% think he’s too liberal:
48% of Michigan primary voters think Santorum’s views are closer to theirs, 32% pick Romney: publicpolicypolling
47% of MI primary voters think Newt should drop out, 40% stay in. If Newt dropped, Santorum would lead by 9:
Santorum’s up double digits in MI with Protestants, union members, Evangelicals, Tea Partiers, and men
Michigan: Santorum 37, Romney 33, Paul 15, Gingrich 10:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/michigan-gop-race-tightens.html
Nate Silver Tweet –
Some of the shift in PPP poll is because their sample has changed. Now 41% evangelicals in MI vs. 48% before. 41% more realistic.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:30 pm
The most effective argument against Sant is that he is less electable. As he continues to dig himself deeper into the socon hole, he will scare off women independents and his GE polls will drop. Then his primary election polls will soon follow.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:32 pm
What new MI poll? Agree on both counts…Mitt just needs to turn around Michigan and work on the stump.
Santorum is self destructing little by little and after a good debate I think Mortgage turns it around.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:32 pm
Post #3 is a perfect example of cherry-picking tweets that make your guy look good and desperately ignoring the ones that make him look bad.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:32 pm
How did PPP do in the last primary (Florida)? Were they accurate as far as Mitt was concerned? What is their record on the primaries so far?
February 19th, 2012 at 9:32 pm
glenn it’s a shame none of the polls show that
February 19th, 2012 at 9:33 pm
PPP has been one of the best pollsters this primary
February 19th, 2012 at 9:33 pm
“Mitt just needs to turn around Michigan and work on the stump.”
He’s doing a town hall in Michigan on Tuesday…thats a new addition to the calendar.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:33 pm
2. Where is this Michigan poll?
February 19th, 2012 at 9:33 pm
Scott Rasmussen says that Romney is surging ahead of Santorum in Michigan. Who to believe? Which outfit has the better record on primaries this year?
February 19th, 2012 at 9:35 pm
Ok, so PPP was the most accurate in Florida, New Hampshire and South Carolina? Thanks for clarifying that PPP is the best in the early primaries, as opposed to the caucuses.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:35 pm
“Scott Rasmussen says that Romney is surging ahead of Santorum in Michigan. Who to believe? Which outfit has the better record on primaries this year?”
Would depend on when the Rasmussen poll was taken, the internals, etc.
At the moment, I like what I see from PPP because its directly confirmed by other polls. That said, one of the polls that it confirms was the Rasmussen one from earlier in the week, so it could be that Rass is the “leader” here.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:35 pm
where is this supposed Rasmussen poll?
February 19th, 2012 at 9:36 pm
9,
LOL,
Good one.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Aha…now PPP sees a tightening with their adjusted numbers…methinks a 3-5% lead now for Santorum will turn into a close Mortgage win on the 28th. The super PAC ads will take their toll.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:39 pm
From PPP:
This is still an extremely volatile race. 36% of voters say they could change their minds in the next week. 69% of Romney’s supporters are strongly committed to him, compared to only 63% of Santorum’s backers. With momentum on his side and a more reliable group of supporters there are plenty of reasons to think Romney can continue this comeback and win next week. The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Big momentum for Romney in MI
February 19th, 2012 at 9:41 pm
#17 exactly, the race didn’t tighten as Nate Silver pointed out they just made an adjustment and polled few evangelicals
February 19th, 2012 at 9:41 pm
Rasmussen just called me here in Arizona
February 19th, 2012 at 9:41 pm
and whoever is saying Rasmussen is saying Romney is ahead in Michigan is on crack. I can post every tweet of Rasmussen for the last week if you want, and there is nothing even remotely to that effect
February 19th, 2012 at 9:42 pm
No one has shown Romney ahead in Michigan since Santorums surge
February 19th, 2012 at 9:43 pm
PublicPolicyPolling@ppppollsReply
Retweet
MI may be moving on a different track than elsewhere because our AZ numbers (out tomorrow) and WA ones (out Tuesday) are good for Santorum
Even after a week of reminding voters of his ties to the state, only 29% consider Romney a Michigander: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/michigan-gop-race-tightens.html
February 19th, 2012 at 9:45 pm
As I mentioned in the other post, females were sampled quite a bit more in his PPP MI poll.
Santorum +12 = Males (40-28)
Romney +4 = Females (38-34)
Santorum +4 overall
I think this poll result overall is not bad for Santorum because of that reason alone.
Election night is going to be close.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Killjoy,
Yep.
I don’t see this MI PPP poll has bad news for Mitt..especially because of his improved FAV/UNFAVS numbers….but this poll is not bad news at all for Santorum.
Healthy FAV’s.
Good AZ & WA coming up.
Is this why Santorum is in AZ on Tuesday & Wednesday this week?……forcing Mitt to play defense in AZ?
February 19th, 2012 at 9:52 pm
Smack
The debate is in Arizona that why.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:52 pm
If Santorum grabs Michigan AND Arizona… Mitt is finished
February 19th, 2012 at 9:53 pm
21. You a Romney or santy guy?
February 19th, 2012 at 9:54 pm
Nate Silver@fivethirtyeightReply
Retweet
Our forecast model now has Santorum up ~5 in Michigan. That works out to a 72% chance of winning. http://nyti.ms/ygLshq
February 19th, 2012 at 9:54 pm
Micah
Romney
February 19th, 2012 at 9:57 pm
26
No he is only in Arizona b/c there is a debate Wed. night and so he figured he would hold a roundtable on Tuesday, I wouldn’t look to much into that. The fact is that Arizona voters have been voting since Feb 2nd in early voting and Romney has been polling pretty strongly since last week their, Romney should win Arizona by at least at the minimum 5-10 points but could be more than that b/c of the large early voting so far.
February 19th, 2012 at 9:59 pm
Key is DEBATE DEBATE DEBATE
A week is an eternity in politics. 4 point lead can go to a 12 point loss or a 16 point win.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:00 pm
I agree #33 it’s all going to come down to that debate. If the election was held today I am about 95% certain Santorum would win Michigan.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:05 pm
If Newt has a great debate it will hurt Santorum, I expect Mitt and Ron Paul to attack Santorum as well, might be a very bad night for Ricky.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Ariz has over 200,000 people already voted, debate or townhall won’t make much difference especially when over 50% of the likely voters have already voted… GOOOD news for Romney…
February 19th, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Reginald from Texas,
Where did you see or hear Scott Rasmussen say Romney is surging ahead of Santorum in Michigan?
The fact is that PPP had this race at +15 for Santorum when other pollsters were showing things much closer, does this now mean since its now basically a tie in the PPP including the margin of error, that Mitt will be up in the other polls? Who Knows?
February 19th, 2012 at 10:08 pm
Jerry,
Very true my friend, and add to that the fact that there is a high Mormon population in the state and its very hard to not see Romney fairing pretty well there.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:08 pm
Pop had Romney and Santorum within 2 points of each other for calls made today
February 19th, 2012 at 10:09 pm
#37 no because the original PPP has been now proven to have been an outlier because they overpolled evangelicals, the corrected that mistake in this poll which accounts for the difference in the numbers. The numbers haven’t moved, just the adjustment of evangelicals. This PPP poll now puts the race exactly where everyone else is saying it currently is with Santorum holding a 5-6 point lead.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:10 pm
40. Rasmussen was on MSNBC earlier tonight
February 19th, 2012 at 10:11 pm
Romney has a large lead amongst Catholics
February 19th, 2012 at 10:11 pm
PPP is frantically backpeddling from their absurd 15 point phantom lead for Santorum in Michigan. It never existed. PPP has been trying to manipulate the race, as they did in Florida….finally estimating a Romney lead about half of the 16 point lead Mitt won by.
No other pollster showed anything close to a 15 point lead for Santorum in Michigan, and now other pollsters have it close. Next week, before the actual contest, they will show Mitt leading.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:13 pm
Santorum has to win one of AZ or MI, or his momentum from the non-binding delgates will all be for naught
February 19th, 2012 at 10:17 pm
Exit polls in Michigan had 27% of MI voters being evangelical in 2008. I think that evangelicals are just more likely to answer the phone for a poll. We already know that higher-educated voters are less likely to respond in polls…
February 19th, 2012 at 10:18 pm
41
Post a link if you can, thanks.
The fact is Rasmussen had this race at a 3 point lead for Rick earlier last week so if he is saying Mitt is surging ahead of Rick then that must mean Romney will be ahead by 6 or 7 points when their poll is released, I highly doubt he would say Mitt is surging ahead and then he has a 2 or 3 point lead, it must mean his lead is growing rapidly, which it is..
The fact is if Mitt wins Michigan he will win Arizona, and that would make for a HUGE night for Mitt Romney.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:20 pm
Reginald,
There is no way Rick is going to win Arizona, and I would feel very confident betting someone $10,000 on that primary, and yes I do have the money, that’s how confident I feel on that one!
February 19th, 2012 at 10:21 pm
Both Michigan and Arizona lean to Romney more than the nation as a whole. He needs to win both states. The wins will help Romney, but it no way should people be disillusioned to believe that it would seal the deal. It would make up for losing Colorado, which is another state Romney should have won. But if he turns around and loses Washington after that, it won’t mean much.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:25 pm
47,
Arizona is going to be very tight by the way. It’s probably 60/40 Romney. Romney has a lead, but the momentum is with Santorum. It’ll be close.
By the way, I was one of the very few who predicted Colorado to be very close and said Santorum would win Minnesota in a blowout.
It’s still far away and much can change, but if the election were tomorrow, Arizona would be within 5 points either way leaning towards Romney, and Michigan I would guess would be around +10 for Santorum due to higher turnout among Santorum voters.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Detroit News had Romney -3.6 / ARG went from -6 to -5 / PPP went from -15 to -4 / Michigan Insider had it tied
With Gallup showing santorum lead growing to +8 I am weary of PPP’s poll which says they are now tied.
In 2008 Romney overperformed the polling in arizona so he still should win arizona. Arizona in terms of delegates is actually more important as it is winner take all. The real clear politics average in 2008 in arizona had him losing by 13 and he lost by 9.
PPP had romney only winning by 8 in florida and he won by 14.5.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Strange to see Mitt with a large lead on Santorum with Catholics. Also to see Mitt with a small lead for women rather than a large one. Tells me that there were a lot of evangelical women responding to the poll. Women, in general, abhor Santy
February 19th, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Shout out from Washington state. Just called about 10 family members, got them their caucus locations, info, etc. for the March 3rd Washington State Caucuses. Then got them to start working on their friends, etc.
Still got lots of family members and friends to call. Mitt will take Washington state; Dino Rossi just came out and endorsed him and Dino is very popular here in Washington: Won the governorship in 2004, only to eventually lose it after 3 recounts paid for by the Democratic party.
Washington State is Mitt country.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:30 pm
PPP poll has a lot of holes in it. Snyder has very high favorables, yet his endorsement was seen as a net negative for Romney. Something is amiss. He is a very popular governor.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Why are we even looking at the polls before the 22nd debate? That will change everything.
Remember, Santorum has not been in a debate since his sweep in 1-2% voter turnout caucuses. This will be the first time voters across the country will be taking a look at Santorum as a real candidate.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Ras had romney up 8 in arizona and ARG had him up 7 so PPP could be an outlier. Why would santorum have so much momentum in arizona. He hasn’t campaigned there. The sheriff story couldn’t be hurting mitt that much. Santorum has gone up in gallup and so that could translate into arizona but enough to give him a lead there or tied like ppp hinted at a few days ago.
Only thing that would worry me about the arizona polling is that PPP got nevada right and in 2008 the other polling firms had romney underperforming in nevada.
I guess if newt is collapsing santorum could be benefiting in arizona. McCain after all as the non conservative in the race only got 47 percent in his home state in 2008 so a closed primary in arizona is tricky. Paul voters in arizona would probably be second choice romney voters so that could also hurt him a bit.
When you look back to 2008 Romney started down in michigan polling to mccain just like now and steadily improved.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:34 pm
If Santorum comes off in the AZ debate the way he did in his CBS Face the Nation interview today, he will not be the nominee.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:35 pm
53,
I can address the Snyder issue as a Michigan resident. Snyder is seen as a moderate RINO by most Republicans. In the primary in 2010 Snyder was the moderate in the race vs 3 or 4 conservatives. The conservative vote was split in 3 or 4 directions, and Rick Snyder won a plurality despite being unpopular with conservatives. The Democrats nominated a Marxist/Communist for Governor, and Snyder won in a blowout.
A lot of Michigan Republicans view a Snyder endorsement as a statement that Romney must be a moderate too, so it makes them less likely to support Romney unfortunately. Snyder should have stayed out of it.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:38 pm
53
If Snyder is popular but his endorsement hurts, that means that the anti-Romney folks, who generally like Snyder, are lying to say the endorsement hurts Mitt when it really doesn’t.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Eric Says:
February 19th, 2012 at 10:25 pm
47,
Arizona is going to be very tight by the way. It’s probably 60/40 Romney. Romney has a lead, but the momentum is with Santorum. It’ll be close.
By the way, I was one of the very few who predicted Colorado to be very close and said Santorum would win Minnesota in a blowout.
It’s still far away and much can change, but if the election were tomorrow, Arizona would be within 5 points either way leaning towards Romney, and Michigan I would guess would be around +10 for Santorum due to higher turnout among Santorum voters.
do you support Paul?
February 19th, 2012 at 10:38 pm
If Mitt is ahead in Ras poll and PPP has him down in michigan there could be a trend developing of PPP related to mitt.
PPP also had santorum with a 38-23 national lead and no one else has had that big of a lead for santorum or romney down at 23. Ras was closest at 39-27 but most of the polling at the time was santorum up around three.
PPP also had mitt up only eight in florida.
So if the arizona poll out tomorrow shows santorum up just something to keep in mind. Will wait for arg, ras or another polling firm to confirm it.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Just Watched Face the NATION: Rick Santorum believes that prenatal testing is there to push abortions.
This guy is messed up. Prenatal testing a lot of times will help prepare families for a down syndrome kid, etc. I have friends, who knew their kids would be down syndrome and it helped prepare them for that; they are vehemently pro-life. This guy is so jacked up.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Santorum going crazy with the gaffes:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/19/politics/santorum-prenatal-testing/
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/rick-santorum-president-obama-environmental-policy-elevates-earth-man-article-1.1025487
“As Rick Santorum has addressed huge, supportive crowds in recent days — with hundreds whooping at his jokes and cheering his blistering criticism of the Obama administration — he seems to be displaying a newfound swagger and letting loose with free-swinging remarks.”
Heh, heh….what an understatement.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/20/us/politics/santorum-defends-remarks-on-obama-and-public-schools.html
February 19th, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Santorum would be train wreck in the General Election.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Great day for Mitt!
The beginning of the end for Santy?!
February 19th, 2012 at 10:46 pm
59,
I’m pretty much an anybody but Obama voter. I like Paul’s economic views, but his view of the world (esp. the middle east) is naive. I’d vote for Paul in a heartbeat over Obama though. I basically want our party to come together no matter who wins the nomination. I tend to look at the race in an unconventional manner, so I view Santorum’s chances significantly higher than most people. I actually see him as a very slight favorite to win the nomination at this point due to states after Michigan and Arizona being more favorable (esp. after Super Tuesday) to Santorum. No northeastern states vote after Super Tuesday for quite a while. Add to that the fact that Gingrich will be out soon and those voters will move significantly in Santorum’s direction only increasing his national lead. Romney needs to go aggressive and not conservative with his tactics. Now is not the time to pretend to be a frontrunner.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:50 pm
I think a lot of people ate coming to the realizatikn that Santorum is a paper tiger. No record of accomplishment, and he became a millionaire through political influence. Would have been nice if he made his wealth outside of the political realm.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:55 pm
65 – But then he’d be demagogued as being “out of touch” and being too rich. Much better if he made millions lobbying and buying favors with taxpayer money.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Paper Tiger I like this words
February 19th, 2012 at 11:07 pm
There have been 5 other anti-Mitts, and all 5 have crashed and burned. After Santorum, there won’t be anybody left. Anybody else getting the feeling Rick is headed for a fall?
The writing is on the proverbial wall.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:10 pm
It was not a good day for Santorum today. He is simply not ready. Not enough experiences
February 19th, 2012 at 11:14 pm
I agree with those who discount current polling in lieu of the upcoming debate. Of all the debates we’ve had thus far, this is likely to be the tipper.
Last time it was all on the line, Mitt belted it out of the park. Viewership ought to be way up there as well. Good times.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:22 pm
Santorum has a long history in the debates of effective attacking whoever he wishes, including Mitt. If Santorum lands even a SINGLE blow on mitt during that debate, Santorum wins the nomination, because this is likely to be the last debate
February 19th, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Mitt has gained 13% among non Evangelicals
February 19th, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Nobody has ever attacked Santorum in a debate. This will be the first time the masses.are educated on Santy
February 19th, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Anyone read about a mysterious Rasmussen poll showing Mitt’s ahead in Michigan?
February 19th, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Killjoy? What are you smoking?
February 19th, 2012 at 11:45 pm
72 – Wishful thinking. Where do you come up with this stuff?
If Santorum even lands a single “blow”? Really, that’s what will happen? Like the 19 debates before where he attacked Mitt on Romneycare and now it will suddenly work?
February 19th, 2012 at 11:52 pm
#77
Where do you come up with this stuff?
________________________________________
Hitch Hiker’s Guide to the Galaxy….it’s in a parallel universe. And he was smoking something while he is there.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:57 pm
As of now after this debate there is only still left on the campaign.
The Georgia and one other were cancelled this week.The only other one left
if the day before the Illinois primary.
February 19th, 2012 at 11:58 pm
Ah only still one remaining.
February 20th, 2012 at 12:08 am
I have a feeling Newt Gingrich might win the next debate. Romney will go after Santorum and will be left exposed from Newt.
Paul might come in the rescue for some balance, but Romney will not have it easy, although Newt rising might be a good thing for Romney… so if he just praises Gingrich and attack Santorum, it might be a good day for Romney.
February 20th, 2012 at 3:24 am
Deg if you are right it means Santorum will loose influence and his points will go to New. Go Romney Go
February 20th, 2012 at 3:28 am
Santorum easily make wild statements and shoots from the hip. His gun will backfire. Electorate is not stupid. He is pushing the religion thing to far. Attacking other religion as less Christian and the Catholic church as the only true Christian is taking it to far.
February 20th, 2012 at 8:33 am
“It’s no secret that I think Santorum’s extremism on social issues will put off all but hardcore conservatives and that both his pernicious meddling in family life and his pro-manufacturing industrial policy will turn off libertarians. But it remains an open question whether Romney can lay out a center-right agenda and explain it in a compelling fashion to average voters. Arguably, this is one of the biggest weeks of the campaign for Romney with a debate on Wednesday and a big speech in Friday. We may know by the end of the week whether the GOP has at least one plausible nominee.” -Jennifer Rubin