February 11, 2012

Poll Analysis: Gallup Daily Tracking Poll

Here are the results of the February 11, 2012 Gallup daily tracking poll. The graphics are courtesy of Gallup:

Mitt Romney pushes and remains in the lead at 34%.

Rick Santorum pops up another 2% to reach 24%, ten points behind Romney.

Newt Gingrich drops a point to fall to 17%, seven points behind the hard charging Santorum and 17 points behind Mitt Romney.

Ron Paul fell 2 points to 8% and in doing so dropped out of double digits. He has fallen four points in three days. That is the same amount as Gingrich has slid except Newt has a whole lot more points to spare than Paul does. Any further erosion would put Paul at levels he hasn’t seen in three months.

by @ 3:56 pm. Filed under Poll Analysis, Poll Watch
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71 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Gallup Daily Tracking Poll”

  1. Heil Preußen! Says:

    Paul has lost almost fity percent from his peak! (43% actually)

    Wasn’t his support supposed to be rock-solid?

  2. Dave Says:

    For some strange reason, Gallup is a credible institution. PPP, not so much.

  3. John2 Says:

    Newt is done and Romney should be alright with Arizona and Michigan wins. That CPAC win was unexpected also for Romney.

  4. XorGate Says:

    It could be that the 5 day nature of the Gallup poll is keeping Romney high until his past numbers drop and Santorum lower until his do the same. PPP’s poll is far more spontaneous than this, so is likely to seem more like an outlier when compared to the more normallzed Gallup poll.

  5. Heil Preußen! Says:

    Hhm…

    Romney is a bit lower than this.
    Santorum is a bit higher than this.
    Gingrich is lower than this.
    And Paul? Gallup is off the mark on this one.

  6. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    N E W T O R U M 4 1 %

  7. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    3.

    You better pray that Newt is NOT done.

    Because if he is then so is Willard, my Rombotic friend :)

  8. Dave Says:

    If either Rick or Newt were to drop out, Mitt would get his share of their votes.

  9. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    Oh and Uncle Nutjob Paul WON the last two CPACs.

    How’d that work out? “Bus in those voters, boys!” ;)

  10. John2 Says:

    7. I dont buy into all those voters will go to Santorum. If Rmney wins Arizona and Michigan its over.

  11. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    8.

    Rombot Dave is delusional as usual.

    The “key number” is Dave’s low IQ ;)

  12. marK Says:

    I think we have seen the last of Newt Gingrich. I don’t see him rising about 20% again.

    I am still waiting for Santorum to call upon him to resign from the race so that he, Rick Santorum, can “consolidate the ‘true conservatives’ behind the only ‘true conservative’ who can win”. I know Rick won’t do it. He is too classy of a guy, but that doesn’t keep a part of me from wanting to see him do it.

  13. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    10.

    The

    Lion’s

    Share

    Will

    My

    Rombot

    Friend.

  14. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    12.

    Can Willard consolidate those pesky severely conservatives is the question of this election.

  15. marK Says:

    Craig,

    So now you’re backing Santorum?

  16. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Paul’s decline doesn’t really make sense, except that he has yet to win anywhere.

    It just doesn’t add up.

    Anyway, if Mitt wins ME tonight, look for him to remain pretty constant in the next series of Gallup polls.

  17. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    10.

    Willard the MA lib MUST win Michigan and Arizona or it’s over.

    Fixed :)

  18. marK Says:

    Craig,

    Seriously. You have the worst, the absolute worst record of credibility on this site. You have never been right once about a candidate. You’ve never been right once about the state of the race just four weeks in the future.

    Why should we take anything you say seriously?

  19. James from TX Says:

    The fact that Romney is unchanged at 34% tells me that the numbers on 2/10 were equal to the numbers on 2/3.
    2/3 should have been a good day a few days after his FL win. This tells me that the PPP poll is more suspect and Romney is likely not about to drop into the low 20%. Santorum I’m sure will continue to rise in coming days.

  20. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    OFF TOPIC BUT I LOVED THAT PALIN SPEECH AND HER THEME SONG AFTERWARDS WHILE SHE WORKS THE CROWD… – CSPAN NOW

    :)

  21. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    Mark the Rombot King,

    I was right about EVERY mushy moderate being a loser.

    Bush Sr
    Dole
    McCain
    Romney

    :)

    So cry me a river, Rombot ;)

  22. My Man Mitt Says:

    8 posts on this thread #21. Do you text uncontrollably too?

  23. Dave Says:

    Real,

    What’s REALLY stupid is calling Mitt a liberal. You’re clueless.

  24. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    Who I support?

    Huck
    Pence
    Jeb
    His Brother
    Barbour
    Rubio
    Jindal
    Michele
    Perry
    Cain
    Kasick
    Walker
    Newt
    Santorum

    ..all SEVERE conservatives, btw :)

    —–

    Mushy Moderates

    T-Paw
    Daniels
    Romney
    Brown
    The Maine Twins
    Christie
    Rudy G
    Charlie C
    Huntsman
    Dole
    McCain

    ..ALL LOSERS

  25. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    *Kasich, that is

  26. marK Says:

    Craig,

    The problem is, those first three guys actually won the nomination though they did eventually lose in the general. We are talking the nomination race here. You still have not been right once, not once. In fact, your name has become a epithet around here for loser.

    I repeat. Why should we take anything you say about the state of the race at face value when you have always been wrong — not just once, not just twice, but over and over and over again?

  27. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    23.

    Dave the Liberal or Dave the Libertarian

    COMPLTE nutjob, either way ;)

  28. Not Your Promiscuous Daddy Says:

    Hmm, is it time for the 4 post rule to be used on this thread?

  29. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    The difference between me and you mushy moderate lovin’ Rombots?

    I WANT to prevent a liberal from living in the White House :)

    Hardcore Rombots have ZERO credibility on this site and have been banned on many other conservative sites throughout the internet because of that lack.

  30. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    28.

    Cry to mommy! Typical Rombot ;)

  31. Mittman Says:

    Mitt Is severly conservative and so am I X 27

  32. Jonathan Says:

    Romney’s 34% is probably his floor by now. He hasn’t yet hit critical mass, but wins in Florida and Nevada have cemented that group’s loyalty.

  33. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Craig… 13 posts?

    ALL of them garbage?

  34. criggs Says:

    This survey matches the previous Fox miniature survey of 2/8-9 (MOE 7.6), so it’s probably accurate.

    PPP does NOT match this survey, but PPP is later than any of them, so, for now, I’m just putting the PPP survey on probation until another similarly recent survey is released that can be used as a basis for comparison.

    Which means that, for now, our picture indicates that Romney is still first and stable but Santorum is a strong second and climbing.

    The fact is that we don’t have multiple polls taken entirely AFTER the American people learned about the Trifecta of the Sweater Vest. The first many heard about his trifecta was in the evening newscasts from Wednesday, which meant the first full day of surveying that was probably affected by his trifecta was the 9th. So until we see multiple surveys conducted entirely on the 9th or after we won’t really know how far Santorum moved up.

  35. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    32

    Meh. Gallup obviously did some polling today, which will factor into tomorrow’s release. He will probably be around 32% in tomorrow’s release, and will stay around that number until something happens in this race.

  36. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    33.

    Conservative in Massachusetts,

    What a joke you are.

  37. Tim Says:

    Santorum, or as he is known to people in the future, the man who killed the GOP.

  38. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    36

    Oh the irony.

  39. Jonathan Says:

    #35:

    A win in Maine ought to keep his numbers up. I would think that as a frontrunner who has won 3 states already, his floor should start to rise. Eventually, he’s going to reach the point where the Party thinks of him as the nominee in all but name. That’ll probably happen after Super Tuesday and when it does, most Republicans will start to fall in line.

  40. Firecracker (Romney/West) Says:

    How many people has Craig for Losers backed already????

  41. NC Conservative Says:

    36- You’re seriously calling someone else out as a “joke”?

    You are the “cut and paste” joker who lacks any reason or logic in his “Romney is doomed” predictions and has proudly proclaimed 5 candidates the presumptive nominee only to watch them sink and fall by the wayside.

  42. Micah Says:

    Looks like craigs brain has officially exploded.

  43. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    40

    6

  44. Florida Conservative Says:

    I have a family friend with “inside sources” in Maine who just told me Mitt Romney is going to win Maine!

    Hope he is right!

  45. criggs Says:

    Don’t know if you were all similarly misinformed, but I’ve seen all sorts of times for the announce of the Maine caucuses, 730PM, 7PM and so on. But now they’re all saying 615PM, just minutes from now! So consider this a head’s up!

  46. Florida Conservative Says:

    They are getting ready to announce the results!!!

  47. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    No mushy moderates is my motto.

    43.

    WAAAAAAaaaaaaay more than that. See above :)

    Good times.

    Hey, I heard Willard the mushy moderate (in other words, a LIBERAL in disguise) beat Uncle Racist & Nutjob, Ron Paul (his only opposition) just now in Maine, the land of the two mushy moderate twin senators.

    Woo hoo! Go Obama-lite!

  48. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Results shortly!

  49. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    C’mon, Willard… YOU can do it. It’s Maine, baby!!! Custom made for you…………

    Show us conservatives just how a moderate liberal can win in Maine!!!

  50. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    Yessssssssssssssssssss!`

  51. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Results

    Romney – 39% 2190
    Paul – 36% 1996
    Santorum – 18% 989
    Gingrich – 6% 349

  52. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    Willard got OVER 2000 votes.

    Paul did not :)

  53. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    WOOOO!!!!

  54. Florida Conservative Says:

    ROMNEY!!!!!!!!!!

    YES!!!!!!!

  55. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    EVERYONE must drop out!!!!

  56. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    Jeb Bush is smiling! Brokered convention..here we come!

  57. Florida Conservative Says:

    EVERYONE thought Ron Paul had this state won, and Romney upset everyone and won Maine!!

    Huge night for Mitt Romney!!!

    CPAC….Check!

    Maine…Check!

    GREAT NIGHT!

  58. Florida Conservative Says:

    So how will the delegate count get awarded?

  59. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    CPAC + MAINE = MOMENTUM

  60. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    57.

    IF Willard could only SKIP MIchigan ;)

  61. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    Crushing Uncle Nutjob by a whopping 190 votes is FANTASTIC!

    What a GLORIOUS EXTREME win for Willard the Lib in Maine :)

    Off to Michigan…….uh-oh :(

  62. Paul8148 Says:

    turnout up by 23 votes.

  63. Machtyn Says:

    I expect in 3 – 5 days, Santorum will be close or on top of Romney. But then, he got momentum from this past Tuesday.

  64. aspire Says:

    Maine and CPAC deflate the Santorum narrative. He’s apparently not as good at winning caucuses as some may have hoped, and he apparently does not have the conservative vote tied up.

    Romney leads in delegates, first place finishes, number of votes, and only finished as low as 3rd once. Santorum and Gingrich have taken turns getting wins, but they’ve also taken turns losing badly. They can’t keep getting shut out of the delegate count and hope to ever win. At some point they’re both going to have lost so many delegates that they won’t be able to win. At that point it’s Romney or a brokered convention. Now I think Romney would win anyway, but at that point people are going to wake up to the fact that it’s going to be Romney and the race will be all but over.

  65. Killjoy Says:

    #61 I agree completely, you know the Rombots are getting nervous when they get giddy about sqeaking out a win over .. Ron Paul? lol

  66. Real (I mean Severely) Conservative Says:

    63

    Aspired Rombot,

    Fox’s new scientific poll:

    It’s Over (Romney will win) 17%
    It’s Not Over 80%
    Don’t Know 3%

  67. Thomas Alan Says:

    Romney seems to be okay. He’s fallen a few points since Tuesday, but hasn’t collapsed at all. 3 of the 5 days are already after the rough night. Seems likely that he’s still over 30%.

  68. Harold Says:

    This poll is from February the 4th through February the 10th, meaning the first data is over a week old.

    I got news for you willardbots. Willard is bleeding, right there in this well outdated poll, a poll that was begun 9 days ago. Gingrich and Paul are dropping, and Willard’s getting none of that drop. That’s Willard’s historical norm. Extreme volatility everywhere in the race, but it goes to others, save one brief couple weeks in January.

    Other than that, the lying, progressive crapweasel takes no benefit from the volatility, just as we see in this Gallup poll.

    On Monday afternoon, a Gallup poll consisting of last Tuesday through Saturday will likely be released. I don’t think you willardbots are gonna like it. My curiosity is whether Santorum can pass Willard in one jump, in that poll.

    I’m also curious how far below 30% Willard falls. PPP says he falls to 23%. A bold prediction, and we’ll see whether they’re right.

  69. Killjoy Says:

    I think Mitt is going to lose Michigan

  70. Harold Says:

    Yeah, Willard may be in deep trouble in Michigan.

    You should see what’s going on in the local blogs. I ran the trap lines yesterday… and it’s just nothin’ but ugliness, from a willardbot perspective. ;-)

    Blogs are not always an indicator, as we see judging by this Willard Fanboy site here, but it means something. We’ll see if Willard’s blowtorch can pull this thing out here. It’s all he’s got, and we’ll see if it’s enough.

  71. Killjoy Says:

    New Gallup daily :

    Romney 34% (no change)
    Santorum 27% (+3)
    Gingrich 16% (-1)

    Santorum is having a MASSIVE surge

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