We all knew this sort of talk had to start sometime:
Al Cardenas, head of the American Conservative Union, has said that Republican turmoil might lead to a brokered convention in which Jeb Bush, former Florida governor, would emerge as a “possible alternative” party nominee.
Mr Cardenas, who is running this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a gathering in Washington of some 10,000 conservatives, told MailOnline that it was not certain that one of the four current Republican candidates would emerge victorious.
His comments came as Republicans fretted publicly about the perceived weaknesses of Mitt Romney, the establishment choice and frontrunner, Rick Santorum, surprise winner in three states on Tuesday, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.
…
The last time a Republican nomination battle went to the party convention was in 1976, when President Gerald Ford assembled a coalition of delegates to defeat Ronald Reagan at the first ballot.
There has not been a brokered Republican convention, where no candidate wins the first ballot, since 1948, when Thomas Dewey came out on top in the third ballot.
“March 6th is really the telling date as to whether we have a chance of a brokered convention or not,” said Mr Cardenas. “If Mitt wins Arizona and Michigan at the end of February and runs with the vast majority of delegates on March 6th, I still think he could end it early.
“If there’s a mixed bag, if he loses Michigan or Arizona and he wins one or two [on March 6th] and the other states are spread around you might just as well get into a convention where nobody has a majority of delegates.
“And then you might see the possibility of two of the four candidates making a deal, a ticket, things of that nature. It starts getting exciting.” If no deal could be struck then a dark horse could step in on a second ballot, when delegates pledged to candidates would be free to vote as they wished.
“That’s when you start thinking of a Jeb Bush or someone like that could maybe come in as a possible alternative,” said Mr Cardenas, who also hails from Florida.
Is Jeb really the most likely beneficiary of a brokered convention? And am I crazy for suspecting that Jeb would actually have somewhat of a decent shot against the president, given his intellectual, pensive tone and demeanor, and his refusal to rule out raising taxes as a way to close the deficit, something that, for some odd reason, high-earning independents seem to eat up?
February 10th, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Yes you are crazy.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:07 pm
February 10th, 2012 at 10:08 pm
Any talk of a brokered convention is nuts.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:12 pm
Dave G… again… if a nominee who didn’t run for president is selected in late August/early June, this person has 2 MONTHS to get on all the ballots, assemble a national organization that works, raise $300+ million, raise his/her name recognition to 100%, select a running mate, develop a narrative, get a media strategy, begin micro-targeting, assemble an advisory team on policy and strategy.
NOT POSSIBLE, NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. PERIOD.
EVEN IF no one has a majority of the delegates going into Tampa, a runoff would ensue, with Ron Paul or Noot being dropped and their delegates spreading to the remaining candidates, and so on. Until the nominee emerges.
EVEN IF Mitt has… say… 1080 delegates, there are enough RNC superdelegates to put him over the top.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:15 pm
100% FINE WITH JEB
February 10th, 2012 at 10:16 pm
Should read: “late August/early September”
ugh
February 10th, 2012 at 10:17 pm
But if Mitt has, say 800, or 900 delegates, and loses the entire south and huge swaths of the Midwest it is far from clear that he’ll be the nominee. In fact, it’s unlikely given how he has poisoned the well with the other candidates.
Sound far fetched? Maybe. But nearly as far fetched as it was a month ago. PPP is about to release polling showing Santorum ahead in Michigan and nationally. If Mitt loses Michigan, a good deal of his establishment support is going to jump ship. Because if Mitt loses Michigan then he isn’t going to win Ohio and Pennsylvania against Santorum.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:22 pm
ST, All good points.
And if Willard pisses off Santorum like he has Newt, Perry, etc..
He will have no chance to ever jump on the bottom of our ticket in Tampa.
Watch your mouth in Michigan, Willard
February 10th, 2012 at 10:22 pm
7
Romney, at a bare minimum, gets 700 delegates.
He has 100, and he gets 600 from: UT, AZ, MT, CA, CT, VT, VA, PR, NY, and NJ, which are all winner-take-all.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Also IF Santorum wins Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania…
California, here he comes!
Good times.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:24 pm
That has to be the most retarded thing I have ever heard in my life. If the stakes weren’t so high, I would be taking some kind of perverse pleasure in what this insane party is doing to itself. It is laughable!
And when 2012 goes down in flames for Republicans, do you think they will learn their lesson? Of course not!
I am so done with GOP!
February 10th, 2012 at 10:25 pm
7 Romney’s about to win Maine, so that Michigan poll will be out of date the moment it comes out.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Democrats have to be ecstatic right now. 6 months ago it looked like Obama didn’t have a prayer. Republicans seem to want to give him a landslide instead.
What a bunch of morons!
February 10th, 2012 at 10:25 pm
9 – Paladino beat Lazio in New York. Conservatives revolted when the establishment foisted Scozzafava on the 23rd district. Remember?
It’s not clear that Mitt is favored in New York.
So if Mitt gets to the convention with only 600-some odd delegates it really is anybody’s ballgame. And you’d have to concede that by then neither Newt nor Sant will be in any mood to do Mitt any favors.
But this brokered convention is a real possibility. And it becomes even more real if Santorum can win in Michigan.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:26 pm
9.
LOL!
Really counting on liberal states there for your liberal candidate.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Yes … you are very crazy. But we already knew that.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Dave … you have been beating this drum for a year now. Time to join the real world. A brokered convention would be a disaster for Republicans. A brokered convention with Jeb as the nominee would be suicide.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:30 pm
14
Want to remove New York for the sake of argument?
Okay, so that’s 600 instead of 700 JUST in WTA states.
And don’t forget the delegates he gets all around the country in proportional contests… like Texas for example.
Say Mitt gets 25% in Texas, just for the sake of discussion. That’s 40 delegates.
And there are guaranteed Romney wins in places like Idaho, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Mexico, Oregon, etc.
Mitt easily clears 900 delegates. EASILY.
And then, Ron Paul does Mitt some favors in exchange for a role in the platform and a speaking slot. And at that point, he’s the nominee.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:30 pm
The scavenger hunt for the “true conservative” continues. I wonder when somebody is going to tell these poor, searching souls that no such person is forthcoming. As long as the purity tests are subject to change, there is no objective standard to measure by and thus the search is just a waste of time. But as far as pipe dreams go, Jeb is somebody that I have high hopes for in the future. He is going to have to deal with the matter of his last name. But he is and will continue to be wise in letting some time pass before he makes any future run
February 10th, 2012 at 10:32 pm
You might be right. It could be a disaster. Or it could be that having Mitt barely eke by with enough delegates having half the party unsatisfied could be worse.
But Dave is justified in writing this post. A brokered convention, while not likely, seems much more possible now than in any recent cycle.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:32 pm
14 – Romney isn’t favored in New York? LOL … I take it back … maybe you are dumb after all.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Sojo, the only chance someone other than Mitt becomes the nominee is if Noot gets out of the race and Santorum takes his place in the South and maintains his own midwestern advantage.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:33 pm
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, ITS CALLED A BUBBLE. AND CHANCES ARE AS LIKELY AS NOT THAT, FACED WITH SCRUTINY, SANTORUM WILL FADE THE SAME WAY TRUMP, CAIN, BACHMANN, AND THE HALF-A-DOZEN OTHER FLAVORS OF THE MONTH HAVE FADED.
All this talk about a brokered convention – not just that it might happen, but the number of people who seem to WANT it to happen. It would royally screw the party, possibly for a long time to come, and long-shot ideas of a candidate like Daniels (who has no real appeal outside of political junkies), Bush (God Forbid), or Ryan (House –X–> Presidency) is only a distraction from doing the difficult work of deciding which of the candidates that have made an EFFORT towards obtaining the nomination should win it.
There have been eight states that have voted up until now, only seven which had any delegates even remotely at stake, and a majority of those which where not even contested by the two (current) top candidates. I will point out: McCain LOST a majority of the Super-Tuesday states, and was not-quite halfway through the delegate count, even when 30/50 states had already voted.
Come back after Super Tuesday, tell me there are two or more still very-much-viable candidates in the race who are likely to win a significant number of states, and we can start talking about the possibility of a brokered convention.
Until then, this is simply being driven by political junkies with far too much time on their hands during the weekend.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:33 pm
20 – Good thing there is absolutely NO evidence that half the party would be unsatisfied with Mitt.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:33 pm
15 UT, AZ, MT, & VA just became liberal?
February 10th, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Oh, and Santorum didn’t make the ballot in Indiana, and failed to qualify delegates in Tennessee.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:34 pm
No, I’m sorry, it doesn’t.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:36 pm
And for the sake of discussion, here’s the state/delegate/allocation chart I made, in reverse chronological order:
UT 40 WTA
NM 23 prop
MT 26 WTA
SD 28 prop
NJ 50 WTA
CA 172 CD + atlarge
AR 36 prop
KY 45 prop
OR 28 prop
NE 35 advisory
WV 31 CD
IN 46 CD
NC 55 prop
DE 17 WTA
RI 19 prop
CT 28 WTA>50% else prop
PA 72 advisory
NY 95 WTA>50% else prop
DC 19 WTA
MD 37 WTA
WI 42 CD
TX 155 prop
LA 46 prop
IL 69 advisory
PR 23 WTA
MO 52 caucus
AS 9 caucus
HI 21 caucus
MS 40 WTA>50% else prop
AL 50 CD
VI 9 caucus
WY 29 caucus
KS 40 caucus
VT 17 WTA>50% else CD
AK 27 caucus
ND 28 caucus
ID 32 caucus
MA 41 prop
OK 43 CD
VA 49 WTA>50% else CD
TN 58 WTA>50% else prop
OH 66 CD
GA 76 CD
WA 43 CD
AZ 40 WTA
MI 30 CD
ME 24 caucus
February 10th, 2012 at 10:36 pm
18 – We’ll see. Giuliani thought some states were “momentum proof.” Romney has been the shaky front runner for a year. If he loses his home state anything can happen. Most folks would have included CO and MN in “guaranteed Romney wins” just ten days ago.
I’m still not saying a lack of majority of delegates is LIKELY.
But it is POSSIBLE.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:38 pm
“perceived” being the key word. That is what happens when you continually tell yourself and everyone around you that Romney is a bad candidate. If Romney is a weak candidate, what does that make his opponents?
Republicans are idiots!
February 10th, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Would you put that past Newt to do something like that if he really thought he could be a martyr to save the country from Romney?
Talk about stroking an ego there. Could Newt resist?
February 10th, 2012 at 10:40 pm
29 – Do you know what percentage of eligible voters voted in Minnesota and Colorado? Santorum has A LOT to prove before we start talking brokered convention.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:41 pm
And I’ll tell you this much…if Romney DOESN’T win with an outright majority of delegates having been rejected in a majority of primaries and caucuses then everyone on here might as well give up politics for a while…because in that case Obama wins. It’s a slam dunk.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:41 pm
31 – You are making the mistake of thinking Newt’s hate is as deep and misguided as yours is. It is not. It is strategy more than anything else. If Newt can’t be the nominee, he doesn’t care whether Romney wins or not.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:41 pm
If there is a brokered convention we need to force Paul Ryan accept the nomination through blackmail. Anyone know is address? Does he have children? Maybe a dog?
February 10th, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Sure he does. But he can prove a lot by just doing one thing.
Winning Michigan.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:42 pm
33 – So under what scenario in your hate filled fantasy world does Obama lose in 2012?
February 10th, 2012 at 10:42 pm
34 – No it’s not. Newt thinks Romney is lying and running a dirty campaign. That’s a fact.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:44 pm
36 – And when he doesn’t do that will you stop your inanity?
February 10th, 2012 at 10:44 pm
29
CO and MN were considered “guaranteed” wins based on faulty logic: that just because he won 4 years ago, he was a lock.
In the case of the states I outlined, there are structural benefits. Higher incomes, moderates, Mormons in high numbers, more fundraising needed.
CO and MN were the kinds of states Santorum could win. The ones I gave Mitt are not.
MT, ID, WY, AZ, NM are all heavily Mormon, and aside from that, there are few people in those states who are skeptical of Mormons or weirded out by them. In addition, AZ and NM have Republicans who are tough on illegals, where Mitt has a heavy edge.
And CT, VT, NY, RI, MA are guaranteed wins because they are northeastern, moderate, higher income, urban.
PR, AS, VI are all locks (with just a total of 40 delegates, but they are delegates nonetheless) because they are overseas, hispanic, and tend to favor “Establishment” candidates.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:45 pm
37 – When I see more Republicans showing up at primaries and caucuses and showing genuine enthusiasm for the field then I’ll feel better about the GOP chances in November.
And by the way – you said Santorum has a lot to prove. If Santorum DOES win Michigan as PPP suggests he *could* then completely GONE is the Rombooster argument that Romney is most electable.
If Romney can’t win in his own backyard among Republicans then he can’t galvanize necessary support in November. The establishment will know it. And if he loses MI, they’re going to bail.
MI is the most important contest yet for Romney and his supporters.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:45 pm
36,
Winning Michigan will be a tall order indeed. I fully expect Romney to take that state, as he should. If he loses MI then I would concede that he would be in some considerable trouble. Super Tuesday would be a free for all. And then all of that you know what talk would really get going by the scavenger hunters
February 10th, 2012 at 10:46 pm
38 – Only someone whose mind is clouded by unjustifiedl hate would believe that. Newt is an ass, like yourself, but he isn’t an irrational idiot. He realizes that his own ads have been ten times as dishonest and dirty as Mitts.
It is down in the gutter strategy … nothing else. Is he a dirtbag for it? Yes. But it isn’t because of any broad hate for Mitt. That just doesn’t make sense.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Romney rocked the nation today. Santorom rocked his pockets.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:47 pm
38,
Newt is going nowhere. He would rather lose spectacularly than exit gracefully. Newt is not a second fiddle, team guy. He will help no one but himself, and apart from himself I doubt he really cares about little else
February 10th, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Depends on how close it is. Romney is favored in MI because of his roots. If Santorum comes within a handful of points then he has every reason to press on to Super Tuesday. If Mitt underperforms on Super Tuesday then absolutely this thing will go on.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:47 pm
And VA is obviously a lock. So is Oregon. Utah.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:47 pm
41 – LOL … so now you are using the Donna Brazille turnout line. You truly are a liberal troll. Turnout has been at record levels in all but the states that were not seriously contested.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:48 pm
If Santorum ever wants to pass Mitt in delegates, Noot has to get out.
Is it gonna happen? No.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:48 pm
38. Be honest. Newt has deceived himself about his own record. He thinks his work with Fannie is a positive conservative talking point.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:48 pm
41 – How bought a friendly (or unfriendly) wager. If Mitt wins MI, you never show up here again. I think we would all be better off in that event. You can go back to your other blogs and commiserate with other losers, and we can have some sanity and peace for once.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:48 pm
I think what we’ll see is that Santorum is the last and least of Romney’s competition. He’s finally getting his shot, and will finally get vetted. When he’s no longer the darling of conservatives his caucus wins will dry up.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Mitt DOES have to win Michigan, though. I admit.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:49 pm
46 – So in other words … no.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:49 pm
43,
“He realizes that his own ads have been ten times as dishonest and dirty as Mitts.”
I seriously doubt that. He is the righteous one in his own mind, it comes across in every speech he gives.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:50 pm
53,
Agreed. Losing there would be bad, but he is going to win there
February 10th, 2012 at 10:51 pm
53 – No he doesn’t. It will just be a lot harder if he loses. He isn’t going to lose Michigan though.
This whole act is getting tiring.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:52 pm
How about this. If Mitt loses, then you find yourself a boyfriend and stop being so self-loathing and angry and prone to make ad hominem attacks on anyone and everyone who doesn’t worship at the altar of Mitt.
Deal?
February 10th, 2012 at 10:52 pm
48. Actually turnout was down in Florida this year.
Only place it was up significantly was South Carolina.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:53 pm
55 – Completely disagree … Newt is a sly devil. He isn’t as delusional as he makes himself out to be sometimes.
He has absolutely no shame though. He will say anything to get the power he so desperately craves. It is a sad comment on the state of conservatism, indeed, that so many people embraced his gutter politics.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:53 pm
I think that’s probably right – but in the right combination, having both Newt and Sant winning primaries in their respective geographic bases could deny Mitt an outright majority of delegates.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:53 pm
58 – And once again you expose your true character.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:54 pm
59 – Because the result was a foregone conclusion.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Hahaha. Ok pal. Just be a little more civil like everyone else has been in this entire thread I’ll keep my “character” under wraps.
February 10th, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Anyway I’m out for the night. Good discussion though.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:11 pm
64 – LOL … you are telling me to be civil? LOL … that is a good one.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Sojourner – The establishment pushed scozzafava?
Don’t you mean Newt?
February 10th, 2012 at 11:17 pm
I put this sort of talk equivalent with talk of a end-of-season 16 way tie for first, after the first week of games in the NFL.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Lets see how tomorrow works out. It has the potential to be a VERY good day for Romney – a win in the CPAC straw poll (very possible, from what a friend attending has told me), and a win in Maine would force people to concede that Romney is capable of bouncing back.
Then lets see how next week works out. Its likely Romney will begin returning the fire that he’s been taking from Santorum. That will inevitably lead to questions and a softening (if his support could get any softer) of momentum for Rick.
Then lets see about the week after that. There’s a debate, and Mitt is a highly competent debater when he needs to be.
Then lets see how Michigan and Arizona play out. Wins in both would put Romney right back in the driver’s seat headed into Super Tuesday.
Then lets see how Super Tuesday itself unfolds. Romney could easily double, or better, his delegate lead with a good night.
THEN, and ONLY THEN, if we wake up on the morning after Super Tuesday and find that we have multiple, strong candidates, and a very close contest, we can start talking about the POSSIBILITY of a brokered convention.
But until then, there is no reason to put serious time and weight into talk of this going that far.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:21 pm
americans are sick of bushes, especially young people. you hardly see any pubic hair these days..
February 10th, 2012 at 11:25 pm
69 – I don’t think Mitt will win CPAC.
70 – Lol
February 10th, 2012 at 11:27 pm
This party does not want to beat Obama.
There is no reasonable explanation for opposing Mitt Romney.
The logical conclusion is they dont’ want to win. and the party is trying to weaken Mitt with all of these unqualified, unsuitable people being put up and then propped up by the media.
Fox especially benefits from Obama winning.
Rick Santorum is as big government as anyone could be, with zero personality.
Suicidal Republicans talk about a fight at the convention.
Jeb Bush would not win against Obama… the Democrats are playing us like a fiddle.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:29 pm
Maine is irrelevant. Only Romney and Paul are competing there. And Romney should win the straw given how many mormons were bussed in. The story is and for the next couple weeks will be Santorum’s surge, Romney’s weaknesses, and the emergence of social issues.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:33 pm
As the republican tent gets smaller and smaller we search for the pure conservative. The offspring of Ronald Reagan and Sarah Palin. Only through this pure breed of conservatism can we take back our country. Heres how I see it:
Paul Ryan: RINO (Part of the establishment because he lives in DC)
Marco Rubio: Communist (Once borrowed a rake from his neighbor and never returned it)
Jeb Bush: Socialist (Beleives in social security)
The list goes on and on…
We must find the pure blood…
To the brokered convention we go!!!
February 10th, 2012 at 11:33 pm
“Maine is irrelevant. Only Romney and Paul are competing there.”
If Maine is irrelevant, then so were Minnesota and Missouri. Somehow, I’m skeptical you’d be willing to admit that.
=====
“And Romney should win the straw given how many mormons were bussed in.”
Are you a bigot, or just an idiot? How many Mormons are there in Florida? How many Mormons are there in New Hampshire? How many Mormons are there in Iowa? Each of those States, Romney won or came very close in. In each case, he did so by winning virtually across the board in terms of demographics. You’re free to talk about the campaign busing people in (all the campaigns that can afford and organize it – which may not include Santorum, more reason to doubt him – do it), but claiming that Romney is flying in hundreds of those pesky LDS folks from the Salt Lake Temple reveals your idiocy, or perhaps your character.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:34 pm
BUSH. That name will not bring independents to vote for the Republican candidate. Sorry, not even Jeb.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:34 pm
Yea, Maine is irrelevant. It’s not a state like Georgia. Now that is relavent.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:39 pm
I don’t think that it’s crazy to talk about it. I have to say that if there were a brokered convention, producing a Bush win could be the worst outcome from a PR-standpoint and would look a lot like nepotism.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:47 pm
73 – And yet … Minnesota and Missouri somehow are relevant? Explain that one to me.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:49 pm
78 – Of course you don’t … you are a RomNot. The only people that are eager to have a brokered convention are RomNots.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:56 pm
When the coming states get to see Santorum’s You Tube warnings Libertarians and Tea Party members are not healthy for the GOP, he will loose a lot of his credibility as the “true” conservative.
Don’t forget , Mitt actively campaigned and gave money to many Tea Party candidates in 2010. He really needs to make a point of that in his speeeches and in the debates.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:59 pm
74 – Lol.
Rombots can’t help themselves guys, they’ve drunken too deeply from the koolaid. Romney could have only won because Mormons were bussed in. How else could it have happened?
Florida is full of liberals, Christie, Haley, Tpaw, Ayotte, Bolton, et al. They are all liberals, or secret Mormon sympathizers.
February 10th, 2012 at 11:59 pm
LOL @Rombots!
Forget Maine and where it’s whopping 5000 caucus voters go.
Newtorum is not even contesting the puny little state.
Oh, how the mighty Willard has fallen.
Good times for CONSERVATIVES. For mushy moderates, not so much.
February 11th, 2012 at 12:10 am
Go with Karl Rove, who seems to be the only sane voice around these days. He’s the master of winning elections. Nobody has a path to the nomination but Mitt and the idea of a brokered convention is completely insane.
I know, I know all the “true” (read crazy) conservatives hate Rove. They hate him because he told the truth they didn’t want to hear: Palin in unelectable; O’Donnell is unelectable; Angle is unelectable.
February 11th, 2012 at 12:23 am
I think that it more likely Christie/Rubio ticket would come out of a broken convention than a bush.
February 11th, 2012 at 12:24 am
83. California huh?
Keep those deligates nice and warm for romney tonight.
February 11th, 2012 at 12:42 am
I’m shocked that people aren’t the least bit concerned over the reason Mitt’s candidacy is obviously being dismantled piece by piece by the ridiculous narratives that he’s being labeled with.
Negative press being looped 24-7 by FOX, the Tea Party, Rush and talk radio and right wing bloggers etc.etc….I mean, why are they promoting the weakest candidate.
February 11th, 2012 at 12:57 am
Stay out da Bush’s!
February 11th, 2012 at 1:05 am
It’s starting to look like a Santorum/Romney or Romney/Santorum ticket.
Unless it gets very nasty.
February 11th, 2012 at 1:41 am
Santorum brings nothing to the ticket that Huckabee/Rubio bring plus a lot more baggage.
He really isn’t even that likeable of a guy, comes across angry all the time.
Santorum would not be helpful in the general election, I think that he could actually hurt the ticket. Huckabee would be a much better choice. And I hated Huckabee in ’08.
February 11th, 2012 at 2:20 am
I would bet there will be a huge draft huckabee movement if it does go to the convention. You think he would turn that down? His campaign season would be shortened significantly…and he has the name recognition and the likeability to pull it off. Will it happen? No. But i promise there will be some hardcore murmurings for Huckabee if we get close to that conversation. Everyone i have talked to around here(wyoming) would be willing to drop the entire field for Huckabee right now. That doesn’t necessarily reflect the tone of the party overall…but i know huck is towards the top of everyones list.
February 11th, 2012 at 7:32 am
Yeah, we could have a brokered convention.
But if Willard loses Michigan, I think his candidacy is about over. He’ll then get bombed on Super Tuesday, and there’s no way anybody would even consider deferring to him at that point.
At the convention, they’d force him to get up and walk out the door. Nobody would release their delegates to this crapweasel.
So it all comes down to Michigan, in 17 days.
Think of this primary here in Michigan as a revolver, pressed up against Willard’s temple, with the hammer cocked back, and the Michigan electorate’s itchy finger on the hair trigger.
February 11th, 2012 at 7:55 am
“am I crazy for suspecting that Jeb would actually have somewhat of a decent shot against the president”
Yes. Bush. You’re crazy.
February 11th, 2012 at 8:44 am
Jeb would be the worst conceivable choice at a brokered convention. It’s talk like this that reminds me that the establishment is capable of being just as dim-witted as the grassroots. Though it ought to be obvious, here are a few reasons why Jeb would be a disaster:
1. He’s a Bush. This is not, necessarily, an immediate disqualifier in a normal race. The party went gaga over Perry, recall, so they’re not immune to falling for folks who remind them of the former President. But a brokered convention does not occur in a normal race. The difficulties of getting the party to accept someone they’d never voted for would be magnified, tenfold, by the selection of a Bush. It would be one step short of a monarchy.
2. He’s a Bush: part 2. In a prolonged campaign, I suspect it wouldn’t be very difficult for Jeb to show that he’s intellectually and temperamentally much more like Bush 41, who America is still fond of, than like Bush 43, who America still blames for, well, everything. But a selection of Jeb at a brokered convention would eliminate any chance he’d have of writing his own narrative. Bush 43 and dynastic politics would overwhelm him.
Paul Ryan is the only coherent option at a brokered convention. Other than Rubio, who’s simply too new, he’s the only politician with immense appeal to both the base and the establishment and the only politician who can claim to be as large a figure as the candidates he’d be eclipsing.
February 11th, 2012 at 8:49 am
The most likely outcome, of a brokered convention, by the way, isn’t “some new entrant drafted on a wave of acclaim”. The most likely outcome is Romney/Santorum. Probably a 60% chance that a brokered convention would settle for that. Since I happen to think that Santorum would make a worse running-mate than any of the other Republicans Romney’s likely considering, a brokered convention feels like a mixed bag to me. Yes, there’s a chance of getting a better nominee, but there’s a larger chance of ending up with a patchwork ticket composed of two of the weakest figures in the party.
February 11th, 2012 at 8:57 am
91 — Yeah, the thought and imagine of Romney getting his head blown off I am sure makes you hard, you sick bastard.
February 11th, 2012 at 8:59 am
MEM #93 has got it about right.
February 11th, 2012 at 9:18 am
Back in the days when there were few primaries and where a number of those were “advisory only,” brokered conventions where the ultimate nominee was some dark horse were more realistic than today. We now have all these states with primaries that elect delegates purportedly with some degree of commitment or binding to a candidate that was on the ballot. While it may be theoretically possible for the National Convention delegates to nominate some new dark horse candidate, the PR aspect of that could be disastrous. The logical question would be: Why did we have all those primaries if they were not going to count for something when we were led to believe they were determinant? The appearance of a “shadowy” back-room Establishment-elite running things would be obvious, and if the nominee selected that way were a Bush—well go figure. So under this scenario the GOP would be abandoning Romney supposedly because of his rich elite image and inability to relate to the common man for another candidate also of a rich elite background, a New England blue-blood, third-generation inheritor. Now that would make a lot of sense, wouldn’t it?
February 11th, 2012 at 9:32 am
Well no, 95, unlike you deviant willardbots, I don’t get sexually aroused over the fate of political candidates.
February 11th, 2012 at 9:39 am
My gut tells me Romney would choose a woman or hispanic to run with to create some kind of wedge with Obama’s base.
February 11th, 2012 at 10:10 am
Harold, you deserve to rot in Hell.
February 11th, 2012 at 10:21 am
Leave it to a delusional willardbot to start assigning Hell space.
February 11th, 2012 at 10:27 am
102
Leave it to a nutjob social reject to come on this board and call for Mitt to be shot in the head. You and Sojourner both have done it. And both of you can have fun in Hell.
February 11th, 2012 at 10:27 am
If one candidate gets clear plurality of delegates and popular vote, and the convention doesn’t nominate him, loads of his supporters will stay home. Jeb Bush is probably the worst possible brokered convention nominee, nominating a third Bush in recent history, without that Bush even winning any primaries would be quite a farce.
February 11th, 2012 at 10:35 am
By the way someone should report Harold, a British couple using slang of how they are going to destroy America, meaning they were going to party in America got detained and joking how they are going to dig up Marilyn Monroe got detained and deported at LAX. So Harold might have come pretty close to getting a Secret Service visit.
February 11th, 2012 at 10:37 am
Using slang in twitter.
February 11th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Well no, willardbot, that’s not what I called for. But then on this fever swamp, the delusions can lead you types just about anywhere.
So who else are you delusional willardbotw picking out Hell space for?
I think you angry little attack muffins better get used to things, as your boy goes down. It aint’ gonna be pretty in coming days here. The moment this guy falls, it’s just gonna be ugly and merciless. And we’re gonna be laughing.
February 11th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Oh, and on February 28, the electorate in the state of Michigan just may be scattering Willard’s brains all across the Michigan political landscape.
February 11th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Harold, my hero
February 12th, 2012 at 6:57 pm
It is pretty funny when I see people talking about likely GOP tickets. Realize that if Romney wins the nomination, they will NOT balance the ticket with a more conservative voice as the VP selection because they do not have to. There is no way that the conservative right is voting for Obama and they would be so concerned Obama wins again that they will show at the polls, regardless how much they dislike the GOP selection.
I would not be shocked to see a VP selection like Paul, a selection that would actually pick up some independent voters.