Back in January of 2009, I posted the very first of my monthly power rankings. Now three years later, we are down to just four candidates, and among them we have a clear frontrunner. I believe that Gov. Mitt Romney will be our nominee for president and that his presumptive nomination is all but assured. Given that fact, I will spare you the lengthy descriptions of each candidate and simply present the final power rankings for the 2012 GOP nomination:
With Romney’s position on the ticket all but guaranteed, the power rankings for the remainder of the election will focus on the coming Veepstakes, ranking the possible vice presidential candidates and how they would impact a Romney-lead ticket. On to the rankings:
1. Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida
This choice seems to be the most obvious on paper. Sen. Rubio is uniquely both the darling of the Tea Party and a rising star in the GOP establishment. Groomed for years as the protégé of Gov. Jeb Bush, Rubio became a Tea Party sensation in 2010 with his defeat of moderate Gov. Charlie Crist in both the GOP primary and general election. Rubio has gone on to meticulously manage his national image in much the same way Sen. Hillary Clinton did prior to launching her presidential bid. Rubio’s youth, Cuban heritage, popularity with the base, and home state are all seen as adding significantly to the GOP ticket’s potential. However, his lack of experience, similar to Sen. Barack Obama’s back in 2008, could be the only speed bump on his road to the Vice Presidency. Despite his public protestations to the VP job, I have no doubt that if asked, Marco Rubio will be accepting the vice presidential nomination in Tampa later this year.
2. Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey
The brash New Jersey governor has become one of Mitt Romney’s most trusted and powerful surrogates. In some cases, he seems to make a better case for Romney than Romney has himself. Christie’s attitude and tough talk have earned him rave reviews among both establishment republicans and conservatives. However, in many corners of the conservative movement, Christie is viewed as a moderate, and pairing him with Romney could turn off these voters. But a Romney-Christie ticket could potentially realign the map, putting into play states like Pennsylvania and New Jersey that have not gone to the GOP since 1988. Christie’s greatest strength, his tough talking personality, is also possibly his greatest weakness. Will his brashness wear well on the national level? Will his personality acclimate well the role of number two? Or will he overshadow the nominee and become a distraction? Time will tell if Christie’s positives prove too tempting to resist for the Romney campaign.
3. Bob McDonnell, Governor of Virginia
The Virginia governor is currently one of the most popular politicians in the country, hailing from one of the key general election states, and carrying with him a solid record on jobs and the economy. A strong social conservative with the ability to attract independent voters and Reagan Democrats, McDonnell has positioned himself strongly for the VP nomination. Along with his statewide experience in the legislature, the attorney general’s office, and now as governor, McDonnell also brings 21 years of military service, which would make him the only veteran on either ticket. The one roadblock to the governor’s potential would be the concern in the party that a ticket of two white males may not be as viable as a more diversified ticket. But given his popularity, McDonnell has proven he can appeal to a wide swath of voters of varying backgrounds and would make a solid running mate.
4. Rob Portman, U.S. Senator from Ohio
The junior senator from Ohio is a proven vote getter in perhaps the nation’s most important swing state. Democrats in Ohio have become energized in the state due to the unpopular reforms of Gov. John Kasich, and the more popular Portman may be needed to hold down the Ohio fort. Aside from the importance of his state, Sen. Portman is an incredibly accomplished man in his own right. Elected to seven consecutive terms in the U.S. House, Portman would go on to serve as both U.S. Trade Representative and OMB Director under President George W. Bush before becoming a senator. His extensive knowledge of policy and government and his popularity in his home state make the Ohio senator a solid, safe choice for the Romney campaign.
5. Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida
The former governor of Florida was the candidate many in the conservative establishment wanted at the top of the ticket in 2012. His strong record as governor, his appeal to Hispanic voters, his passionate dedication to education reform, and his heavyweight political stature made him a top potential challenger to Barack Obama. Despite not having run himself, these same strengths apply to his potential as a running mate. Bush remains very popular in his home state of Florida, and his name on the ticket would all but guarantee Florida easily returning to the GOP in the fall. His presence would also bring bundlers and activists who have been on the sidelines so far into the game, helping form perhaps the greatest GOP political machine in history. The drawbacks for Jeb are obvious, specifically his last name and his connection to the 43rd and 41st presidents. There is also the potential of turning off Tea Party voters with not one but two political scions on the ticket. Still, Jeb Bush is a serious political talent, a brilliant policy wonk who would distinguish himself from his brother and, in my opinion, would add more to the ticket than he would subtract.
6. Condoleezza Rice, former Secretary of State
The former Secretary of State is said to covet the vice presidential nomination, and would bring a number of strengths and drawbacks to the job. Sec. Rice would bring significant foreign policy credentials to the ticket, which is a particular area of weakness for Gov. Romney. Her experience would compliment Romney’s domestic policy and business credentials and balance the ticket. The former secretary also brings historic diversity to the ticket as the first African American woman to be nominated by either party. Born in Jim Crow Alabama, Rice’s nomination would parallel nicely with Barack Obama’s unique background and inoculate the GOP from the typical “old white guy party” attacks. However, the drawbacks of a Rice nomination are twofold. On the one hand, her connection to the Bush administration would bring attacks from the left, and her more moderate social views would double the concern that social conservatives already have about Romney. Still, her credentials and the historic nature of her nomination makes her a top potential candidate.
7. Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana
The young Louisiana governor has been a rising star in the GOP for a few years now, despite his fumbled State of the Union response speech. Jindal, at just 40, has amassed an amazing resume of varying experience; governor, congressmen, state secretary of health and hospitals, and president of the Louisiana University System. He has reformed and revitalized one of the most corrupt states in the country and has impressed many in both the establishment and the conservative movement with his brilliant grasp of policy. And he has proven a capable leader in times of crisis, handling natural disasters in his state with all of the competence that his predecessors lacked during Hurricane Katrina. As the nation’s first Indian American governor, Jindal would also bring diversity to a republican party in great need of appealing beyond it’s white, southern base. An early supporter of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, it has yet to be seen if Romney world is willing to look outside of their more loyal supporters for a running mate. If they do, Jindal would have to be at the top of the list.
8. John Thune, U. S. Senator from South Dakota
Sen. Thune, the GOP’s 3rd ranking member in the Senate leadership, is the favorite of a lot of establishment conservatives as a solid, safe, do-no-harm candidate. Thune checks all of the conventional boxes for a republican contender on social, economic, and military issues. Though largely undistinguished in the senate on policy grounds, Thune would bring experience to the ticket, helping connect the messaging of the Washington GOP to the Romney campaign. However, Thune hails from a safe GOP state and lacks the other regional advantages some of his establishment rivals bring to the ticket.
9. Tim Pawlenty, former Governor of Minnesota
Gov. Romney’s former rival for the GOP nomination has become one of his strongest advocates, and has earned himself considerable points in Romney world because of his support. A solid governor from a Mid-western state, Gov. Pawlenty brings a number of good qualities that made him, on paper, a potentially great candidate for president in his own right. With his presidential campaign failing to catch fire, however, Pawlenty’s 2012 experience could keep him off the national ticket. Pawlenty himself, after being jilted by McCain for Gov. Sarah Palin at the last moment in 2008, could also not want to go through the process a second time. Still, many in Romney world see Pawlenty with a significant role in a Romney administration, vice presidency or possibly in the cabinet.
10. Paul Ryan, U.S. Representative from Wisconsin
The Wisconsin congressman has become a hero to the conservative intelligentsia and his reform proposals have become the center of much of the political debate in Washington. With the debt and entitlement crisis hanging over the election, Ryan’s plans will likely become a focus of the campaign at some point with or without him on the ticket. In that case it may be better to have the best spokesman for his ideas, Ryan himself, on the ticket alongside our nominee. Still, some worry that Ryan’s plans, however bold, are a sure political loser in 2012 and think his presence on the ticket could distract from the focus on jobs the GOP wants to campaign on.
Honorable Mention: Susana Martinez, Mitch Daniels, Brian Sandoval, Rick Santorum, Luis Fortuño
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:03 am
Lol, who cares about power rankings now?
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:05 am
Christie is way too high. So is Bush. Condi, while she would be high on my list, probably deserves to be lower too.
Rarely is a veep candidate out there so loudly early on. That is why I highly doubt Christie gets it. Plus, he is from NJ and isn’t as pure and clean as some like to pretend.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:07 am
I would also consider putting Rand Paul on this list. I think he has real appeal to independents and libertarians, of course.
He would also help bring a TON of young people in that might otherwise stay home. Ron Paul speaking at Romney/Rand Paul events?
BUTTER.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:09 am
3 – I don’t buy it. Young Paul supporters are not going to back Romney just because Ron Paul endorses him.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:10 am
Yours is the second VP list which has said, specifically of McDonnell, “is it really a good idea to have two white males on the ticket?” and then proceeded to list a half dozen white males with no indication that there white maleness would be a problem. Is Bob McDonnell more white male-y than Rob Portman or Chris Christie? Is it a conscious or unconscious allusion to McDonnell’s good looks and perfectly coifed hair. I.e, the problem isn’t so much the white male business, but the “white male, Ken Doll” factor? I still prefer Jindal or Ryan but McDonnell makes an awful lot of sense and it’s a little irksome to see so many people signaling out his white maleitude as a negative factor.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:16 am
I’m fairly confident about Florida, regardless. This would lead me to go somewhere besides Rubio.
However, Rubio, simply put — speaks Spanish. He is Cuban, yes, which is far, far different than the vast majority of American Hispanics. But having him out there, in Spanish ads, speaking Spanish to crowds regarding the American dream and entrepreneurship, would be absolute invaluable.
I often think that he MUST be the guy.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:18 am
A Romney/McDonnell would have the best set of jawlines in American political history.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:21 am
5 – He had to find some negative to justify putting McDonnell lower than Christie.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:23 am
7 – LOL!
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:23 am
NOPE! The VP power rankings are as follows:
1. Marco Rubio
2. Bobby Jindal
3. John Thune
4. Paul Ryan
5. Tim Pawlenty
6. Bob Mcdonnell
7. Rob Portman
8. Chris Christie
9. Rick Santorum
10.Rand Paul
There are a lot of reasons why many people on that list should be lower…or not on the list at all. Bush isn’t even being considered. The name is too toxic. Doesn’t matter how popular he is in florida…if the name is hated everywhere else. Chris Christie…is one of the names that would send the conservative wing…and particularly the people already uneasy about romney…into the arms of a third party candidate…or write in specifically because they wouldn’t believe in the conservatism. Why vote for a ticket that isn’t conservative at all….that would be the reasoning. And i have to admit, i want romney to win very badly…but it would be a big “f-u” to the conservative wing. And Rice is a non starter. She is pro-choice….watch the pro-lifers protest by not voting.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:25 am
5
I think it’s his physical similarity to Romney that causes the “white male” card to be played when he is mentioned. Christie is a very different character with an outsized personality that McDonnell lacks. So maybe “boring white male” would be more accurate. I think it is mentioned with McDonnell most of all because, 1) he’s a southern, social con, and 2) he’s the #1 “old white guy” of a certain physical stature and personal demeanor on the list of veep contenders. I think Christie’s weight, his Italian/Irish heritage, and his personality inoculate him to some degree from the “old white guy” tag.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:26 am
Forget Christie as VP….He is more then qualified but he doesn’t really add anything to the ticket. Christie will be offered a cabinet postion (Probably US Attorney General). Christie will be prime to run for President after Romney’s second term.
I personally would like to see one of the following as the VP
Huckabee, Rubio, McDonnell or Paul Ryan
Please, NO Jeb Bush on the ticket. The guy may be perfect as a VP but his last name is toxic at the moment. Obama would use that in a very negative way and I feel it would bring down Mitt. Bush should consider 2020 after Romney’s second term
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:27 am
Okay, this is something that’s been puzzling me for months: What is Donald Trump’s constituency? Why did all the candidates want it? Why does his endorsement helps Romney? Why is Romney standing shoulder to shoulder with him this afternoon? I honestly don’t get it.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:28 am
7
LOL!
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:29 am
It’s Romney/Rubio. That is why he didn’t endorse in the Florida Primary. He is setting himself as the “good cop” for the Tea Party wing of the Party. Had he endorsed Romney, I’m not sure that avenue would have been open to him. See example: Nicki Haley.
The only other possibility is McDonnell.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:29 am
12,
HUCKABEE! I would put Huckabee at #1…IF i thought he would take it. I think Romney will consider that possibility. But the indication is that Huckabee is happy where he is at. He gets to be the mouthpiece for the conservative side of the party…and help Romney out in that way.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:30 am
McDonnell makes so much sense, given what we know about VP selections, it’s hard to see how he’s NOT the guy. He really doesn’t have any negatives. Romney supporter, reinforces the executive image, no ideological problems, and brings Virginia and North Carolina. Portman’s the only one who makes almost as much sense except A.) He’s a Bush guy, B.) He’s got no personality, whereas McDonnell has a rough charm, and C.) Senators are probably less likely to bring their home state.
I think there’s a decent shot of Rubio but only because A.) Romney’s having such a hard time securing the base and B.) Unexpectedly, Obama’s faring worse in the west, where lots of Latinos reside, than in the mid-west and there’s a decent shot that Rubio could tip Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado, something which will be important if Ohio continues looking grim.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:31 am
McDonnell is the most likely to become VP, closely followed by Rubio and Christie.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:31 am
13,
I don’t think Romney OR Paul wanted it. I’m not 100% sure about Romney…but Paul blew the guy off. In fact, Trump was pretty pissed off about it. Of course it only endeared paul to his supporters even more.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:31 am
The Huckster needs to be on this list…..not really a fan, but he should be on the list, nevertheless.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:32 am
#7 has to be comment of the day!
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:32 am
17,
Good observation.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:35 am
Rice and Bush are out; no way Romney is going to reopen the Bush legacy. Susana Martinez should be higher; Romney himself has mentioned her a few times.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:37 am
I really think you are remiss not to include Luis Fortunato of PR. He has all benefit of Rubio,as well as a track record as a Governor. I think he’s pretty high up the list, but not at the top
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:38 am
It won’t be Jindal, because Jindal won’t take it. He’s in the middle of an absolutely enormous ucation fight in Louisianna, and I really don’t see him walking out in the middle of that to go on the ticket. Rubio won’t do it, because jumping into the VP slot after only two years as a senator might irritate more people than it brings over in Florida. Christie might do it, but I suspect he’s a bit wary of what will happen to his NJ reforms if he leaves in the middle of his first term. If she was born in the U.S., Eleana Ross-Lehtenin, a Cubana with possibly the best foreign policy resume in the house–would be perfect. So, of people who would actually be interested and take the job, I’d say McDonnell, Fortuno and probably then Christie would be the top 3. I really do think it’s got to come down to McDonnell or Fortuno though, and since I know McDonnell is term limited, while Fortuno may want to get a second term as governor and solidify the changes he’s made, I have to give Bobby mac the edge.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:38 am
#17 MEM
You make a compelling argument for McDonnell and Rubio. If it comes down to those two I think Rubio helps the ticket more. No doubt we are going to need the Latino vote, if polls before the general election show us winning this demographic, it would cause total panic in the Obama reelection campaign….total PANIC!
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:38 am
Rice shouldn’t even on the list and Bush should be much lower.
I am sure he will look at lots of people but in my mind there are 3 people near the top and a few just underneath that.
McDonnell, Jindal and Rubio.
Pawlenty, Christie, Portman.
I think as far as priorities in a VP, Romney should go for reinforcing the outsider and executive image first, reaching out to independents/new voters (Hispanics and Reagan Democrats) second, and finally exciting the base. Ideally the VP can do all three.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:39 am
WHAT THE HUCK? i mystified how huck isn’t viewed as the top choice for romney’s veep spot…he fills in all the holes romney is lacking…although i like the concept of the gov of new mex, who also isn’t on your list. Picks 3,4,6,8,10 and just god awful and would highlight how bad a political person romney and his camp are…for their sake they better not get cocky, seriously they have run agaisnt a bunch of clowns and are barely winning. Message to boston, huck is the veep or don’t bother. *gov of new mex can also work
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:41 am
I say Rubio. The electorate is changing to Latino. If we can take ground on this right now, we could have lasting impact.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:42 am
I think people are putting Fortuno down the list because he doesn’t have the national exposure, and we’re wary of a Palin. However, Fortuno has a very long history in PR politics, was Resident-commissioner (non-voting rep) in the house for four years before becoming governor, and really has done a terrific job in a very difficult situation.
Re: Jindal not taking the VP slot (again), that should read “education” fight.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:42 am
I’ve never understood the love affair so many in the party have with Condi Rice. She is, to be sure, a very smart, very tough lady, but she has never held elective office, and she always — *always* strongly denied any intention, want, or desire to run for any office.
And, unfortunately, she is tied to George W. Bush. Which is why Jeb Bush is a non-starter as well. Mitt is not going to choose anybody who will cause the party to spend most of their time talking about Bush 41. It just ain’t gonna happen, folks.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:44 am
It is a mistake to put the Bush connection too high on the list.
The last thing we need is to give Obama the Bush administration to run against…
A fresh start is what is needed.
Also, if the divide with the most die hard anti-Romney evangelicals continues, I think someone to appease them would be near the top.
The only one I know of is Huckabee. Who is also from the south. Arkansas is probably not a high priority, but the Romney haters are and much of the Romney hate is over Huckabee in 2008.
Also, I chatted with a guy yesterday who is convinced that the Constitution excludes Rubio as not “natural born” because his parents were not citizens… I think it is bunk… but the birthers are out there, we need to handle it and know it is coming.
Susan Martinez should be included although I would hate another dumb pick like Palin.
Hopefully, whoever is on the actual list is at least asked if her daughters are pregnant and unmarried. And anything equivelent. I doubt vetting is too thorough in New Mexico.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:44 am
McDonnell, Rubio, Huckabee.
Huckabee being my first choice for various reasons. McDonnell my second, as I explained in detail. Rubio third, because of risk.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:45 am
We can’t assume that just because someone speaks Spanish and comes from a Latino background, they’ll play equally well everywhere. Mexicans, Cubans and Puerto Ricans all have a very different political culture in the U.S. Now, Rubio actually does very well with non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida, but we need to be a bit careful about assuming unanimity here.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:45 am
I understand Condi is pro-choice… that would exclude her if true… especially for Romney.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:47 am
McDonnel just seems way to corporate to pair with romney…this is not a hiring process for a bain job, this is a political election. I suspect some in team romney would favor somebody like rob portman, i will go puke on that thought.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:48 am
13
My take on Trump: He is just another nutter supporting Newt.
But he is Romney’s first nutter!!!! Romney is expanding his base.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:48 am
Huckabee would be fine, if he wanted it, which I doubt he does. Rubio–who I think is an Evangelical–and McDonnell–who isn’t but went to Regent–would probably do just as well. As for Susana, she’s definitely been vetted more; the NM gubernatorial election was nasty and brutal, and IIRC Denish through everything and the kitchen sink at her. That said, she hasn’t been in office long enough. But man does our 2016 or 2020 field look amazing…
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:48 am
Once again, let me reiterate…..Huckabee WOULD be #1….if it was even thought of as a possibility. But the indication is that huck doesn’t want it…and i’m sure romney doesn’t want to have to wonder about it. Huck should immediately be #1 if he expresses an interest. Until then…he’s not on the list. Even though i would LOVE THAT TICKET…WE’D CREAM OBAMA.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:51 am
i would bet $10,000 bucks huck would take the veep offer…payable 1 buck per year over 10,000 years
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:51 am
Max apparently knows that the other white males all suffer from Low T.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:51 am
McDonnell is corporate? Huh? If by that you mean clean-cut then sure, but he’s more the ex-military, ex-prosecutor type, and he’s actually a very good natural politician. The Washington Post basically implied he was Patt Robertson and Jim Moran compared him to the Taliban, but McDonnell carried purple-to-blue Fairfax county. He’ll do fine–better than fine.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:53 am
#13 criggs: I would say Trump’s constituency is Greta Van Susteren … he seems to show up on her Fox News show all the time.
The main significance of Mitt getting Trump’s endorsement is that it implies that Trump wouldn’t run third-party if Mitt is the nominee. It’s not so much getting Trump’s support that is beneficial as it is avoiding having Trump’s opposition. At least this way, Trump won’t be going on Fox News every few days to bash Mitt.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:56 am
#33 & #39
Huck is my first choice too. It’s my dream ticket. But I have a feeling he will not accept. I hope I’m wrong.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:59 am
And I’m going to reiterate my previous advice to Mitt: If you are considering someone for the VP slot, tell them to get themselves on the Sunday morning talk shows to talk about their support for Mitt. Among the criteria I’d like to see used for selecting the running mate is “the person is comfortable dealing with the national press.”
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:59 am
I would strike Condi Rice and insert Ivanka Trump, former Secretary of Hotness. Yum!
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:00 pm
1. Huckabee
2. Fortuño
3. McDonnell
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Wow, I have to disagree. It can’t be:
Christie, because two northeasternern “moderates” would be bad for rallying the base.
Rice, because the VP must be solidly pro-life to counter Mitts percieved life commitment.
Bush, just because the name is caustic to the independents we need to appeal to.
Jindal or Pawlenty, because the VP needs to be the attack dog.
Ryan, because even though he would be a great VP he is needed to push reforms in congress.
I rate the veepstakes as follows:
Rubio
McDonnell
Haley
Huckabee
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Where is Huck?
He’s the Yin to Mitt’s Yang, and he doesn’t crack top 10?
Also, the Bush dynasty is NOT going to be on the ballot this Fall. Sorry. Mitt is smart enough to make the election about Obama and the economy, not Bush and the economy.
Obama would love nothing more than to run against Bush again.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Ok, i would include the gov of VA in my final round of maybe 5-6 finalist …under no situation would i include anybody who worked in the bush admin or whose last name is bush. I would also not include thune or ryan. I’m sure romney if the nominee will have the parade of folks going to his pad in new ham over the summer for the interview.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Romney has said that his main criterion is that the VP needs to be ready to be President. There are enough terrorists, pscho Obama fans, and anti-mormons who would seriously kill Romney if given the chance… and all it would take is one half competent psycho.
So, as great as Rubio is on paper… is he ready for the top slot? I think Mitt is going to pick a governor for his VP. It’ll be the “competence ticket.” Jindal and McDonnell are my top 2, with Huck, Christie, Sandoval, Martinez, et al thrown in there also in some order.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:04 pm
46,
That’s very weird….but to be honest, my dislike for Rice is enough to where i could go along with that. I’m not a rice fan at all. Other than her being smart….she has too many weaknesses, not to mention that her pro-choice ideology makes me run away from the ticket altogether(i won’t every vote for a pro-choice politician for an office that it might matter on).
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Hmm.. I’ll just take the wild guess that Romney will do what 4 out of the last 5 presidents did:
He’ll pick a VP with foreign policy experience to balance the ticket (GHWB was the exception because he had foreign policy experience himself).
Romney’s greatest weakness in the general is obviously the fact that he has no foreign policy experience and no military experience. To pick another governor with the same qualifications that he has would be foolish and would add nothing to the ticket.
He might pick a retired general or a senator (hint: Demint sits on the Foreign Relations Committee).
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:05 pm
17
Matthew
Dont you think within the first week we would be facing
1) College thesis gate?
2) Gay rights exec order gate?
3) Confederate flag gate?
Also wouldnt you all agree that if its not going to Rubio that needs to be annouced and dealt with WELL in advance of the actual announce date. Otherwise hispanics will feel he was passed over for a white guy. Just my 2 cents
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:07 pm
I personally think it will be Rubio, with Pawlenty in a very high position in the cabinet.
But I would not rule out my Governor, Susana Martinez, for the VP.
Personally, I hope she isn’t the pick, just because we need her here New Mexico. Our state is a corrupt mess, and Susana has done an incredible job dealing with the disaster left by governors Bill Richardson and Gary Johnson.
That being said, I do believe New Mexico will swing republican this year, with or without a Hispanic on the ticket.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:08 pm
53,
McDonnell was a Leiutenant Colonel.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:09 pm
There is a reason no Northeasterner has won the Presidency since Kennedy, despite the built in advantages of population, money, and proximity to national media and power. We don’t need to double down on a region whose candidates make it harder in the Midwest and South.
Mitt is a culturally polarizing figure. He is extremely rich, northeastern, and Mormon, with a bit of a Brahmin air about him.
Thus, I think Mitt will be too smart too pick someone who is unusually rich, northeastern, Mormon, or Brahmin.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:09 pm
55,
Gary Johnson left a mess? How so? I’ve never heard anything but good about Johnson as a governor.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:09 pm
My list in terms of order of likelihood is as follows:
1. McDonnell
2. Rubio
3. Portman
4. Ryan
5. Huck
6. Jindal
7. Martinez
8. Fortuno
9. Thune
10. Christie
In order of preference I’d go:
1. Jindal
2. Ryan
3. McDonnell
4. Rubio
5. Portman
6. Huck
7. Martinez
8. Fortuno
9. Christie
10. Thune
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Trump is good because (1) It means he won’t run 3rd party if Mitt wins. (2) It means he’s not going to breath life and credibility into the Gingrich campaign (3) Trump’s constituency is anybody who will listen to his loud voice especially on Fox, who’s infamously cool on Mitt and high on Newt. If he says positive things about Mitt, his character and his abilities, it will help. (4) Mitt could do with a little media circus now and then.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Not sure why Condi is on the list. There is no way Mitt takes W’s foreign policy head with pro-choicy views.
He may as well drink strychnine.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Rand Paul would be my first pick. Here is why. Rand Paul is considered conservative and he is also Tea Party. Tea party and conservatives that weren’t crazy about Romney will be more likely to come out and vote. Second of all, Rand Paul is a senator from the Bluegrass state. Southern voters which mostly favored Gingrich because he was a southerner too will appreciate Rand Paul on the Romney ticket. Third, Rand Paul is Ron Paul’s son and shares some of his libertarian views. Ron Paul supporters know that Ron is getting old and that to continue the Libertarian cause, their best bet is to get Rand Paul in power which would enable him to better run for president in the future so many would vote the Romney/Rand Paul ticket. This would also steal plenty of Obama votes because many Ron Paul supporters will vote for Obama instead of Romney.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:16 pm
If you asked the average voter who was a more accomplished foreign policy President- Bush or Obama- I’m guessing Obama would win going away.
And quite frankly, I’d have a hard time disagreeing.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:16 pm
No pro-choicer will be on the list. That disqualifies both Condi and Sandoval.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:19 pm
MEM,
I pretty confident Mitt will make a safe pick. He won’t be throwing a hail mary, like McCain, no matter what the score in August. His whole demeanor and campaign is one of caution. Plus, I think he wants to win it or lose it himself.
So I think Mitt would tend to favor known quantities, preferably who have been well vetted, or at least don’t have a polarizing temperament and personality.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:19 pm
“McDonnell was a Leiutenant Colonel.”
He was a medical supply officer in the army.
Fail.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Rubio, Christie, Ryan are good for me.
Off Subject: Michelle Bachman may endorse Romney. I like Bachman. An endorsement would mean maybe she wasn’t real serious about calling Romney’s MA Healthcare a socialized government plan.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Well, after SC have shown how shallow they are, and the Florida Panhandle confirmed the Southern Shallowness, it is unfortunate that we must have a Southerner on a ticket. How about Allen West? He is the Tea Party before the movement was given a name. He also is a retired high ranked military officer. I think he did a business or two, too. Then you mentioned the diversity. He is diverse enough to cause Democrats to weep and gnash their teeth. Why is he not on a VP list?
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:25 pm
BC,
Are Medical Supply Officers not legitimate members of the military? McDonnell’s doubtless not going to come off as general Eisenhower but he’ll add more to Romney’s ticket on the foreign policy front than almost anyone else on the list. It’s not like Ryan or Portman or Thune- the only guys listed with federal experience- are known for their focus on military issues.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:26 pm
Too me you have to have Mike Huckabee as the #2 guy…. I would have put Rubio lower, but after what he did in Florida, I now would have him at #1.
Christie is a no go… Must have someone who the hard core Evangelicals would go for.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Anybody associated with Bush is completely toxic. In addition, Mitt a short while back was pretty clear about wanting a governor: someone with “executive experience.” Mitt’s running on competence and executive experience. He’s probably going to go with someone who amplifies his own abilities while making up for some of the holes in Mitt’s own resume.
I’m thinking McDonnell, who actually endorsed Mitt, is high on the list: Military, Southern, conservative, former prosecutor, pro-life, 5 kids, pro-drilling, balanced the budget, good on jobs, head of the GOP governors, young enough to run for POTUS, nice-looking, smart, good campaigner. I believe he’s Catholic, but I dont know for sure. His thesis was on the family.
He complements but doesn’t over-power Mitt.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:27 pm
I like Pawlenty, but I don’t think he would be a Veep pick. He made a short run for the presidency, couldn’t stand up to Romney and then decided to join him which is forgivable. However, I think it eliminates him for veep. The Republican ticket would take a lot of criticism for that. However a cabinet position would be fine. I think he has been a excellent warrior for Romney.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Romney/Rubio or Romney/McDonnell
Those are the choices. I like either, but America will fall in love with Rubio. We are talking about the x factor. There is no question the job is his if he wants it. If the GOP wants to pull women back into the column, get them a handsome pair like Romney and Rubio. Rubio’s family story balances Romney’s riches. As for McDonnell, he’s southern and he’s former military, so he checks those boxes.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:29 pm
Well, in 2010 exit polls there are couple senate/governor races in same state where you can try to estimate effect of identity politics.
Sharron Angle lost to Harry Reid by 6 points, she got 30% of Hispanic vote.
Brian Sandoval spanked Reid’s and won by 12 points, he got 33% of Hispanic vote. He is of Mexican ancestry, doesn’t speak Spanish though.
So one lost by 6 points, and other won by 12 points, but the difference in Hispanic vote was just 3 points.
Both governor Rick Scott and Senator Marco Rubio got about the same share of the Florida vote. Marco Rubio got 55 of Hispanic vote, Scott got 50. Florida’s largest Hispanic groups are Cuban and Puerto Ricans are almost as numerous. Puerto Ricans and Cubans are probably each other’s closest neighbors when it comes to ancenstry composition, this probably plays part into identity politics also. So Rubio’s Hispanic appeal is probably even weaker in west where Cubans or Puerto Ricans are not major group. Of the really swingy swing states, except for New Hampshire, Romney seems to poll better in Florida than any other swingy swing state, also Obama’s Florida performance in 2008 was pretty weak considering the margin by which he won the national popular vote. Last time a Democrat performed better in Florida popular vote than national was Jimmy Carter, 1976.
Scott, truck driver’s and shop clerk’s son whose net worth is over $100 million, did 3 points better among whites making under $50k, than Rubio, would be nice if Romney. Romney Rubio ticket might be too sexy and drive away blue collar vote. Christie lost $30k-50k bracket just by 6 points, when McCain lost it by 30 points, so Christie might bring some blue collar vote.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:30 pm
66,
As a lieutenant Colonel.
Please get yourself straight before you hammer on someone. Yes, he was a medical supply officer….but he was ranked as a lieutenant colonel. You sound like those people who disqualify someones military service because they were a doctor.
Ron Paul was a captain, and i’ve heard people say(yeah but he was a doctor)….so saving lives doesn’t count as serving our country now? Sheesh.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:30 pm
Matt.65,
I fully agree. Mitt isn’t into “desperate moves”. And there is noway, Jose, that he is going to go with an unvetted candidate so soon after the disaster of 2008.
His whole campaign, when it comes down to it, is based on competence. He is not going to throw that away with his VP pick. It just ain’t gonna happen.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:31 pm
69,
What you said.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:32 pm
58. Yeah, I’m sure you heard that from a libertarian, probably one who doesn’t even live here.
Johnson vetoed about 750 bills, one third of which had been introduced by Republican legislators. Yeah he helped with our deficit but at an extreme cost.
On paper I’m sure 750 vetoed bills look awesome, but in practice it destroyed our governments ability to function.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:33 pm
McDonnell is Catholic. He went to Notre Dame.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:33 pm
76:
*would be nice if Romney’s VP boosted blue collar vote.
Having two north easterners on the ticket might not be that balanced, but it doesn’t always have to be that balanced, Arkansas and Tennessee were neighboring states.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:33 pm
80:
It should have referred to my post 74, not 76.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:35 pm
MWS,
Yeah, Mitt’s not going to throw a hail-mary. Thing is, I’m not sure there are really any hail-mary’s this time around. Rubio’s young and inexperience but is a great politician and a Senator, which means he’s much more familiar than Palin was with the issues which dominate the national discourse. I’m presuming that Team Romney is capable of vetting all these people thoroughly and if Rubio comes through that process fine, I’d expect him to make a considerably better running mate than Palin was. The closest thing to hail-mary’s are Martinez and Fortuno. Just because they’re relatively inexperienced and, as Governors (and in Fortuno’s case a Governor of a rather removed territory) aren’t really naturally conversant on national policy. But everyone else on my list seems like a fairly conventional choice.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:35 pm
Does anyone think weight plays a role here? I personally like Christie but man he is too fat to be VP. I think the same of Huckabee. If either of them wants the VP spot they are going to have to lose a few pounds. There’s a reason they keep Huckabee at his desk during his TV show.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:35 pm
Yup. The VP pick is the first “executive decision” the future POTUS will make. The first criterion is to be ready to be POTUS on day one. Yes, there are a ton of other factors, but the pick has to meet #1 first of all.
In hindsight, Palin no way, no how filled the bill. I guess history will always argue if Palin was a net gain or loss for McCain. However, Mitt will not go with crazy or controversial.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:36 pm
The most intriguing pick to be is the Governor(?) of Puerto Rico.
That would be the sort of hail mary Mitt won’t do, but it’d be fun.
And besides, Puerto Rico is about as far away from Alaska as you can get, right?
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:38 pm
If it comes down to who can deliver a state, you pick Rubio for Florida. Florida is a must-win for GOP.
On other hand, if you think Obama cannot win Florida due to economy, and Mitt is popular in Florida, you go for Virginia, where Mitt is less popular, and where Gov. McDonnell could deliver the state for you.
I am torn!
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:38 pm
#85 I believe weight is a factor. I believe choosing someone female, black or hispanic could be seen as pandering unless the person is entirely more qualified than other choices. Choosing someone like Huckabee or Christie makes it look like Mitt cannot win on his own.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Asparagus,
I wouldn’t say Huck is “offesively obese” now, but being super heavy would be an unnecessary distraction, and might prevent the candidate from keeping the sort of grueling schedule the VP will need.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Does Rubio put California in play? What about New Mexico?
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Don’t forget Rubio was speaker of the Florida House.
He isn’t Obama 2008, he’s actually been around the block a few times, and led a caucus. He wasn’t voting “present” over and over.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:42 pm
#92: CA is probably hopeless. We re-elected Jerry Brown for goodness sakes. But it’s an interesting quesion: Could Cuban Rubio bring in Mexican votes?
No doubt the Mitt people are doing internal polling as we speak.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:43 pm
#75. My only point is that as a medical supply officer he had no exposure to foreign policy.
McDonnell will add nothing to the ticket.
He does not need to be the VP candidate to campaign with Romney in VA to help win that state.
The same goes goes for Rubio in FL. Picking an unqualified Hispanic may very well backfire.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:45 pm
asparagus,
“Does Rubio put California in play?”
25% unemployment wouldn’t put California in play.
Besides, I’m not sure how much extra appeal a Cuban American is going to have to Mexican Americans.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Rubio brings star power that no one else does. He’s also terrific at articulating conservatism.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:47 pm
BC,
“Picking an unqualified Hispanic may very well backfire.”
I agree, but Rubio was Speaker of the Florida House before being a Senator, which puts him miles ahead of where Obama was in 2008.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Matt, there is NO whey José Huck will be asked – or if asked will accept.
He wouldn’t give up his cushy gig for the Presidency…kinda doubt he’s interested in the VP slot. At.All.
I think Rubio makes a lot of sense.
Pawlenty if Mitt is worried about being over shadowed by a more dynamic candidate. If you want to look exciting just stand on stage next to Tim Pawlenty.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Dem voters in CA are absolutely convinced that it’s Republicans who have created all of CA’s problems…even tho Republicans have absolutely NO power whatsoever.
Everbody is brain-dead here.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:49 pm
90 Too much of a wild card. You end up having the VP be a distraction because he is going to contradict everything the nominee is saying, and the Paul people aren’t going to vote for Mitt anyway on the basis that Rand Paul is VP. They want their guy as Pres or nothing.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:50 pm
“Rubio is Cuban…it wont help with Hispanics outside Southern Florida”
Bingo! There is actually animosity between Hispanics of Mexican and Cuban descent. Rubio would hurt the ticket more than he would help. He has no experience and is not ready to be president.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:50 pm
He is Cuban, not Mexican, yes.
BUT, Hispanic Americans are entrepreneurial in spirit, industrious, creative, and optimistic. Marco Rubio articulates the American Dream, for these people in particular, better than anyone I can remember.
If he does it in Spanish, that WILL put NM in play, and deliver Bush-like levels of Hispanic support.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:51 pm
99 I’m not referring to his latino-ness bringing in Mexican-Americans (they all vote Dem anyway). I am talking about the kind of ticket that has pop culture appeal. Rubio would bring youth to the ticket. McDonnell could come across as just another Christian father figure for the left to hate. In other words, you bring Rubio on board to counter some of Obama’s “cool”.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:52 pm
I don’t believe Rubio will be seen as “weak” by most people. He comes across as strong, capable, convincing and articulate.
And I do believe Mexican hispanics would look upon him favorably. He already has a good relationship with Mitt. It wouldn’t be like Palin and Mack, where they had never met and he pulled her out of a hat.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Telly,
“If you want to look exciting just stand on stage next to Tim Pawlenty.”
I think that’s in the Book of Proverbs.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:58 pm
110 I am trying to picture Gov. Romney and Sen. Paul together on a podium, the tall Romney sporting a Brooks Brothers suit and slick-backed hair, with the much shorter Rand Paul with messed up curly hair and I can’t think of two people more ill suited to be running mates. I doubt Paul even wants to be VP.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Boo,
I think Hispanics are critical to the GOP’s future, and would LOVE to see us make inroads there. I just don’t know if Rubio accomplishes that. But I could be convinced.
February 2nd, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Whomever Romney ends up picking as VP gets a leg up for the nomination in 2016. Therefore let’s hope it’s a strong conservative who appeals to the grass roots and Tea Party.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:02 pm
asparagus,
W did pretty well with Mex-Ams.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Rand Paul for reasons listed on 62.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Matt, there is NO whey José Huck will be asked – or if asked will accept.
He wouldn’t give up his cushy gig for the Presidency…kinda doubt he’s interested in the VP slot. At.All.
“The next election is the most important of our lifetime. We have come to the conclusion that you are the man who could best help us to win the election, your communication skills would be great asset for helping to push the Republican agenda, and that you are experienced enough to become the president, if needed.”
Now, if you can’t really argue against the arguments and data presented by those people who are responsible for helping to choose VP candidate, you really can’t say no with a good conscience. except for personal or family member health reasons.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:07 pm
“The next election is the most important of our lifetime. We have come to the conclusion that you are the man who could best help us to win the election, your communication skills would be great asset for helping to push the Republican agenda, and that you are experienced enough to become the president, if needed.”
Now, if you can’t really argue against the arguments and data presented by those people who are responsible for helping to choose VP candidate, you really can’t say no with a good conscience, except for personal or family member health reasons.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:11 pm
I want Rubio, McDonnell, Fortuno or Jindal. I wanted Jindal to headline the ticket this time two years ago. Rubio is my preference. I think John Thune would be great at the VP job and can be president in the future, but he doesn’t really add anything to the ticket at the moment. Romney 2012 Thune 2020
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Rubio outperformed Scott even among non-Cuban Hispanics. The “Cubans are not Mexicans and therefore don’t appeal to Mexicans” line is overblown. On the bottom of the ticket Rubio might add 15 points among Cubans. But he’d probably still add 5 to 10 among non-Cuban Hispanics. That’s potentially decisive in New Mexico and Nevada, where Latino’s make up 41% and 15% of the electorate respectively.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:19 pm
I think Huntsman would be good as well, but ties to Obama and doubling down on Mormons is just not going to happen.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:21 pm
If you pick Rand Paul you risk organizational and message dysfunction as the Paul and Romney people don’t connect. That leads to gaffes, which leads to embarrassment. All to attract a bunch of young people who are more likely to either a) vote for Johnson or b) stay home and smoke weed.
If you pick McDonnell, you are running a traditional Rove-style campaign. Low risk but at least he delivers VA and probably NC as well. The pick energizes Christians and midwestern Catholics.
If you pick Haley, you now have a historic ticket on three fronts (first Mormon Pres, first female VP, first Indian-american VP,etc). But you don’t pick up a swing state and she’s lost influence among tea partiers for early endorsing.
If you pick Rubio, you now have a historic ticket on two fronts (first Mormon Pres, first hispanic VP), you deliver Florida, and you deliver strong conservatives. By virtue of Rubio’s hispanic heritage, you may be able to peel off enough disgruntled southern hispanic voters to flip NC and VA, and keep CO in the Republican column. In addition, you have a “cool” vibe that energizes the party and the convention.
For these reasons, I say Romney MUST pick Rubio because he will need a rocking convention to get the bump he is going to need to beat Obama. Rubio delivers that bump. I don’t think the others generate near the excitement. Plus I think he will deliver FL, help flip NC and VA and will appeal to western voters in CO.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:27 pm
NY,
“I think Huntsman would be good as well, but ties to Obama and doubling down on Mormons is just not going to happen.”
I recall a very enthusiastic young Mormon here, a few years ago, gushing over the prospect of a Romney/Hatch ticket.
Seriously.
He was a nice guy though. Can’t remember his name.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Rubio’s star power would get bring all the short-term benefits Palin brought, without the long-term embarrassment.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:30 pm
I still think Huck is the best and most obvious choice right now. But I’d love to see Rubio get a test drive.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:35 pm
126
I have no issues with it personally. I think some SoCons might. Also Utah is the most republican state. I think Rubio needs to be VP. If he says no then McDonnel or Fortuno. Jindal won’t take it unfortunatley. I think Romney/Rubio ticket. SecState Huntsman Sec Defense McCain and give one of the other cabinet spots to one of the Pauls to try to get them, Their loyalty to Paul could be valueable in the GE.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Huntsman? Oh please. Sanctimony is not appealing… his always looks like a sour puss… it surprises me he is a diplomat… I wanted to like the guy believe me, but he was just so sanctimonious!
Huck would take it. He is a patriot first, a guy with hurt feelings second.
Oh man did I just say something good about Huck again?
What is wrong with me?
I guess the losers in this Primary make Huck look really good in comparison… he seemed so incompetent in 2008, but I had yet to see real incompetence.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:37 pm
How about Jerry Moran, Senator from Kansas? I’m not sure why but I feel like throwing his name out there. He voted against Bush’s programs like NCLB and Medicare Part D, so this separates him from most Republicans including Paul Ryan and John Thune. Maybe Moran would be a decent running mate for Santorum.
Former Senator and current Governor Sam Brownback might make more sense for Romney. He certainly makes more sense than Jim DeMint, I think.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:39 pm
I know so little of Rand that I have no opinion… I hear he is miles better than his father on foreign policy… but he is light on experience.
Getting that Paul enthusiasm for the General would just about guarantee a win I think.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:40 pm
Rethinking the Paul enthusiasm… it would be a circus… never mind.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Non-Cuban Hispanic Floridians tend to be slightly more Republican than national Hispanic Average, maybe it’s immigration being non-issue to Puerto Ricans in general, or something else. McCain did two points better among non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida (33%) than in national exit polls among Hispanics (31%). 2010 national House exit polls had Republicans to get 38%, Rubio got 40% of non-Cuban Hispanic vote, two point more than the national House exit polls.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:55 pm
This race is over. who is the vp going to be? rubio is looking better and better each day.
February 2nd, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Rubio forces Obama to ditch Biden for some young star (Andrew Cuomo?). The others probably aren’t game changers and we get ole Joe as VP. By the way, he is looking very old these days.
February 2nd, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Teemu,
I think there are good reasons to believe that the exit polls somewhat understated Rubio’s strength with Hispanics. Rubio outperformed Scott in Orange County, which has the largest number of Puerto Ricans statewide, by 5%. He outperformed him in Seminole County, another bastion of Puerto Ricans, by 5%. And in Osceola by 3%. These don’t really differ from his 3% edge over Scott in the almost exclusively Cuban Miami-Dade. And there aren’t enough Hispanics in the first 3 counties to explain Rubio’s margin if he only performed 5 points better than Scott among Hispanics statewide. More to the point, though, is that Scott, who was rah-rah about Arizona’s immigration law, actually did better with Hispanics in 2010 than Charlie Crist did in ’06. Despite doing worse statewide. Which suggests to me that not only did Rubio do particularly well with Hispanics but he had coattails.
February 2nd, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Romney/Haley is still fascinating me. They have a great rapport on the stump. Even though Mitt got destroyed in SC, they looked very good together on the stump. Something tells me Romney surprises us and goes with the female pick. You see how Ann Romney makes Mitt more appealing. A good female VP could do the same.
February 2nd, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Romney has a couple things to do with his VP choice:
1. Rally Conservatives
2. Balance Ticket Geographically
3. Balance Ticket Personality
The top people will be:
1. Christie – though may not appeal to Die-Hard Conservatives, and may be too bombastic
2. Rubio – achieves all three.
3. Ryan – achieves all three.
4. Jindal – achieves all three.
5. Santorum – may help, may earn it.
6. Bachman – though achieves 1 & 3, may not help in minnesota or with independents.
7. McDonnell – may be too much like Romney.
8. Pawlenty – probably vying for Sec. State or something. Don’t think has personality, esp. guy first to drop.
Unfortunately, with all the Bush hating, I think Daniel – and Portman and Rice will not be considered. (“Putting up same people who got into this mess”). Jeb Bush also – though if Rubio elected, Bush could take his Senate Seat, or be a Sec. Education or something.
February 2nd, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Where the heck is Huck!??!?! And Christie at 2 is worthless….he is not a friend of the conservative vote that mitt will need. If mitt wants to beat obama he needs an excited base! Rubio would do that. Huckabee would do that. McDonnel, Jindal, and Thune would all do that.
February 2nd, 2012 at 2:44 pm
I don’t think any of the other contenders this year deserve VP consideration, with the possible exception of Pawlenty. He would add almost nothing to the ticket, but would do no harm, and is POTUS material.
February 2nd, 2012 at 2:48 pm
So the over performance should have been clearly highest in Osceola of those three. But actually it is the lowest in county that has clearly the highest Puerto Rican population.
Marco Rubio did better with higher income people than Rick Scott, let’s compare the income of counties to how many percentage points better Rubio did to Rick Scott.
County (Rubio% – Scott%) income
Seminole County 5.4% $24,591
Orange County 4.5% $20,916
Osceola County 3.2% $17,022
The high
February 2nd, 2012 at 2:49 pm
So there seems to be same pattern, Rubio did better among white collar, when Scott did better among blue collar people.
February 2nd, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Rand Paul would be my first pick. Here is why. Rand Paul is considered conservative and he is also Tea Party. Tea party and conservatives that weren’t crazy about Romney will e more likely to come out and vote. Second of all, Rand Paul is a senator from the Bluegrass state. Southern voters which mostly favored Gingrich because he was a southerner too will appreciate Rand Paul on the ticket. Third, Rand Paul is Ron Paul’s son and shares some of his libertarian views. Ron Paul supporters know that Ron is getting old and that to continue the Libertarian cause, their best bet is to get Rand Paul in power which would enable him to better run for president in the future so many would vote the Romney/Rand Paul ticket. This would also steal plenty of Obama votes because many Ron Paul supporters will vote for Obama instead of Romney.
February 2nd, 2012 at 3:14 pm
I see NO ONE has mentioned the possibility of Newt Gingrinch! lol
February 2nd, 2012 at 3:29 pm
County (Rubio% – Scott%) income (Rubio/Scott)% Puerto Rican population
Seminole County 5.4% $24,591 10.4% 8%
Orange County 4.5% $20,916 10.4% 13%
Osceola County 3.2% $17,022 7.1% 27%
February 2nd, 2012 at 3:53 pm
144.
You know why it likely won’t be Rand?
The Paul supporters are so rude.
They crash websites and spam online votes and complain at every turn.
That is not going to win an election.
So what has given Paul his chance for a voice… is the same thing that makes him a liability.
February 2nd, 2012 at 4:03 pm
147 Rand Paul’s supporters are not all rowdy youth. Like I said, they are conservatives and tea party which Romney needs. Rand also has the benefit of bringing in those who would otherwise vote independent or for Obama. Romney supporters, moderates, youth, conservatives, tea party, and southerners can all rally around a Romney/Rand ticket. It will be a diverse crowd, not the rowdy Ron supporters as you are thinking. If it was a Romney/RON Paul ticket then I would agree with you because the Romney supporters will be drowned out by vocal youth which is a vast majority of Ron Paul supporters.
February 2nd, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Colbert/Gingrich
February 2nd, 2012 at 4:37 pm
What new states would Rubio bring? This is going to get down to states. I think Romney will win Florida regardless of VP, so what other new states would Rubio bring? He ain’t bringing California. Maybe New Mexico, but it might come anyways. McDonnell brings two purple states, and he’ll help in Pennsylvania and Ohio. I don’t even think Obama can win without FL, NC and VA. Romney is going to bring New Hampshire and Nevada on his own.
February 2nd, 2012 at 4:39 pm
This is about delegates in the general election, and they are doled out by state. A VP has to bring a new state, IMO.
February 2nd, 2012 at 4:39 pm
#147 & #144: Yup. Did you hear the NV Paul supporters when Dr. Paul graciously congratulated Mitt’s FL win? Big fat boos. Paul wisely shut them up, but still. Bad form.
February 2nd, 2012 at 4:41 pm
If i were a betting man it would be Bob Mcdonnell with rubio being the wildcard. i doubt any of the others on the list will be on the ticket as vp.
Bob Mcdonnell make the most sense for romney. he adds to romney’s commander and chief deficiency, he is from an important swing state, and should appease the social conservative base. Most importantly I get the feeling that Romney is most comfortable with him which I think will be Romney’s main criteria.
i doubt romney makes the decision based on politics. it will be a consideration but i htink he will be more like bush and pick someone he can rely on and he belives he can work well with.
February 2nd, 2012 at 4:45 pm
#153: I agree even though there’s a long way to go and strange things happen everyday.
I keep repeating myself but I did hear Mitt quite recently say he was going with a governor. He wants proven competency and executive experience, which is what Mitt is running on.
February 2nd, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Ok, first off, Christie is a suicide pick, and I doubt Willard wants to commit suicide.
Second, Willard needs somebody who doesn’t outshine him, and that makes it tough, because anybody with a pulse can out-animate a robot.
I’d say Santorum is a fairly good pick, and that’s probably part of the deal Willard has with him right now, in addition to clandestinely funding his campaign.
Santorum is from a critical state, and Willard needs the voters he’ll attract there and elsewhere. It might help him in Virginia, and also in the Midwest, which he can’t win without being competitive in. Santorum can blather about his plans to “persuade” Willard about his manufacturing corporate tax schemes, and Willard can scratch his chin and say “Maybe Rick’s got a point there blah blah blah…”
McConnell would likely be the only one on the above list I’d take, because the others don’t bring much, have too many negatives or they’re already sitting in jobs from which they can’t really be spared. It’d be wise for Willard not to strip a state of somebody firmly in place, like a Ryan or a Jindal or a Rubio, if he can help it.
Santorum is looking for a job, and he’ll have been fully vetted in the campaign. Willard can’t afford a misstep, and he likely wouldn’t be. First, do no harm. Yeah, it means a Catholic and a Mormon on the ballot.
I’d almost be willing to consider that Puerto Rican governor, although that’s a huge wild card, and anything can happen there. But if he’s clean, I’d take him over Rubio, if that’s the flavor Willard’s campaign hacks say fits them.
February 2nd, 2012 at 5:31 pm
I’d prefer the class of 2010 bench not to be touched.
February 2nd, 2012 at 5:37 pm
Remember too, Willard took hispanics in FL much because of Puerto Ricans, so the Puerto Rican vote can be influenced in FL and in Puerto Rico both with that guy. This would be the bold pick, and I think Willard’s going to have to find a way to be bold to have any chance in this election. I presume that guy is Catholic as well, but not sure. But that could be an aid in the Midwest, arguably. That guy is very personable, if you’ve ever seen him speak. He’d likely be an antidote to Willard’s newly found reputation for being anti-poor as well.
February 2nd, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Umm Harold Puerto Rico doesn’t get to vote in the general election.
February 2nd, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Fortuno, Martinez, Ryan, Santorum
I’d be very happy with any of those four.
February 2nd, 2012 at 6:27 pm
BOBBY JINDAL BOBBY JINDAL BOBBY JINDAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
February 2nd, 2012 at 6:51 pm
I believe McDonnell would play very well out in Colorado. He is the type of GOP Guv they have long missed since the Bill Owens days. NM and NV would be good states for him as well
February 2nd, 2012 at 7:49 pm
Another vote for putting Huckabee on the ticket. Ability to talk to working class voters in an authentic way that Romney, whatever his strengths may be, simply can’t? Check. Ability to excite so-cons skeptical of Romney and get them working hard? Check. From a region outside of Romney’s turf? Check. Congenial enough to charm the ladies on “The View” and not scare away female voters (not that all women watch “The View” or take their cues from Joy and Whoopi)? Yep. Huck is simply the best complement to the serious, business-minded Northeasterner Romney.
February 2nd, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Can’t believe all the Huck fans have already forgotten the little murderer problem he has!
No it will be McDonnell, Rubio, Jindal, Thune or Pawlenty.
February 2nd, 2012 at 8:07 pm
Heath, I for one haven’t forgotten. But do you think the issue of who’s soft on crime versus tough on crime is going to come up? This isn’t a race to clean up New York City. Personality is going to matter more — and Huck’s affability complements Romney. Romney may have many good qualities –serious, level-headed, etc.– but Huckabee has an “aww, shucks” appeal that neither Romney nor the guys you named do.
February 2nd, 2012 at 8:15 pm
MED –
Next Tuesday I will be going to caucus for Ron Paul. Am I doing so because I think Paul would make the best president of the four remaining candidates or because I think he can win? No. I am caucusing for Ron Paul as a protest vote against the GOP establishment and their choice Mitt Romney. Likewise, I will be voting 3rd party – likely for Governor Gary Johnson – come November.
The vote for Ron Paul must be viewed by those of you either in or sympathetic to the establishment as an anti-establishment vote. Therefore, Romney putting Rand Paul on the ticket as VP would not only be seen by us anti-establishment voters as being yet another Romney pander, this one an even more blatant and egregious pander than the litany of others, but, more importantly, it would cost Paul (Ron and Rand) their base of support as they’d be seen as sell-outs to the establishment.
Thus for MED and anyone else sharing his/her opinion, there is no way in hell that putting a Paul or other anti-establishment libertarian on the ticket would help Romney in any way, shape or form. Romney is better off picking someone who might actually help him electorally. If anything, and I can say this as a proud anti-establishment voter, putting Rand Paul on the ticket would only hurt Romney.
February 2nd, 2012 at 10:49 pm
JINDAL!!!!!
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Marco need more experienced as he must stay in the senate one more term,and then candidate for GOV so after his first term at GOV job he can run for the presidency.the perfect VP ticket is Mike Huckabee,second is Christie.
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:38 pm
165- look all over the internet. There are Ron supporters that would love Rand on a Romney ticket because they see it as Rand better enable him to run for presidency in the future that way and in then in that case, have his father’s torch passed on to him. On the other hand, there are people like you who don’t think that would be the best idea. People like me, however, don’t think the Paul guys especially Rand, to be selfish and not willing to be on one of the candidate’s cabinet because it would upset a few people. I think they both, especially Rand because he implied it, would like to get as much influence within an administration as much as possible. I for one, and others believe this is the best way to keep their cause going.
February 16th, 2012 at 1:34 am
I think that the ticket will be Romney and Santorum.
1.They balance each other out in just about every way. Country club Republican/Blue Collar Republican. Northeast/Midwest. Governor/Senator. Moderate/Conservative. Morman/Catholic w Evangelical appeal.
2.Santorum will bring out the conservative vote in the most crucial of swing states (Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin) and he puts Pennsylvania in play. His being on the ticket would also assure that the Tea Party vote would not stay at home.
3.Santorum would debate Biden well and is qualified to be in office (2 term Congressman and Senator).
4.By this summer it’s very likely that the ticket would bring the party together.
5.And not to be underestimated, Santorum would want the job and would be an attack dog on the campaign trail.