Final vote tally for the Florida Primary with all precincts reporting:
Votes Percentage Romney 771,842 46.4% Gingrich 531,294 31.9% Santorum 222,248 13.4% Paul 116,776 7.0% Perry 6,742 0.4% Huntsman 6,182 0.4% Bachmann 3,947 0.2% Cain 3,481 0.2% Johnson 1,186 0.1% Total 1,663,698 100.0%
Margin of victory for Romney over his three main rivals:
Votes % Total % of Romney Gingrich 240,548 14.6% 31.2% Santorum 549,594 33.5% 71.2% Paul 655,066 39.9% 84.9% Gingrich + Santorum 18,300 1.1% 2.4%
So even if every single Santorum voter had voted for Gingrich, Romney would still have won. And we know from both anecdotal evidence as well as several polls that there was a large percentage of Santorum voters who would voted for Romney over Gingrich.
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For reference, here are the results from the 2008 Florida Primary:
John McCain 701,761 36.0% Mitt Romney 604,932 31.0% Rudolph W. Giuliani 286,089 14.7% Mike Huckabee 262,681 13.5% Ron Paul 62,887 3.2% Fred D. Thompson 22,668 1.2% Alan Keyes 4,060 0.2% Duncan Hunter 2,847 0.1% Tom Tancredo 1,573 0.1% Total: 1,949,498 100.0%
So Mitt improved upon McCain’s percentage by 10 points and his own by 15. Mitt has 70,000 more votes than McCain had in 2008 and improved his own total by 166,000 votes.
February 1st, 2012 at 3:40 am
Romney has out performed all his efforts he has done in 2008….. I don’t think there is a question that Romney will be the nominee. The sooner true conservatives come to grip with that the better.
Newt is finished.
Santorum is running for a cabinet post or some other future position. Santorum will also get a speak spot at the convention. He has an outside shot at the VP, but I believe that is unlikely because there are far better candidates.
Paul is running for a position on the platform committee and a speak spot at the convention, he will get it.
Soon speculation will turn to the VP spot, and I believe it will have to be someone who the ABR crowd will be happy with. Short list should include Marco Rubio and Mike Huckabee.
February 1st, 2012 at 3:53 am
Bachmann endorsing Romney on Wednesday in Minnesota? Is that why he’s going there instead of Nevada?
February 1st, 2012 at 4:54 am
#2
Good for Bachmann…She worked really hard to get the tea party movement of the ground, but I thought they had let her down badly.
February 1st, 2012 at 5:05 am
alaska jake Says:
February 1st, 2012 at 3:53 am
Bachmann endorsing Romney on Wednesday in Minnesota? Is that why he’s going there instead of Nevada?
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Looks like she wants a cabinet post… Might just get it…
February 1st, 2012 at 5:20 am
Great win for Romney! The momentum will propel him into big wins for the next several contests. Newt is toast.
February 1st, 2012 at 5:39 am
She’d actually be pretty good as HHS sec.
February 1st, 2012 at 5:49 am
Booyeah Says:
February 1st, 2012 at 5:39 am
She’d actually be pretty good as HHS sec
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I thought that might be a great spot for santorum
February 1st, 2012 at 6:09 am
Can we get the prediction results in?
February 1st, 2012 at 6:19 am
I’ll concede to you MC
.
Is there any truth to the rumour that Rubio can’t be VP as he isn’t a natural born citizen?? I need to know before I bet on him! Thanks.
February 1st, 2012 at 6:26 am
Please! Batty Michelle is a fruitloop! She’s just lucky that Palin & West make her look less crazy in comparison. We don’t want her anywhere near the white house that’s for sure.
And what’s with these piss weak endorsements AFTER Mitt has wrapped up the nomination? At least Christie & Haley had the balls to do it before SC & Florida! And big kudos to Bob Dole too. What a great old man.
February 1st, 2012 at 7:03 am
And 2008 Romney out performed 2012 Gingrich as well.
February 1st, 2012 at 7:16 am
I predict that Romney will choose Pawlenty as his running mate.
February 1st, 2012 at 7:37 am
Heath,
No. Birthers swear that both Rubio and Jindal are ineligible because neither of their parents were American citizens when they were born. But that is not the traditional standard and almost constitutional law experts would reject it. I’m sure there will be some talk about what it means to be natural born, if either is selected, the same way there was with McCain (who was born in Panama) but that’s all.
February 1st, 2012 at 7:38 am
So, despite the pundits spinning, in a year where turnout dropped 1436%, Mitdramatically increased the % that the winner received. Hell, he destroyed it in actual numbers. This is a bad thing, how?
February 1st, 2012 at 7:39 am
14.36%, sorry about the typo
February 1st, 2012 at 7:40 am
12. Tim Pawlenty? Well, that would certainly be the type of bold move one would expect Mitt to make.
The George H.W. Bush model of VP selection (find someone who doesn’t ‘outshine’ you)
At first I thought – No Way! – but then I remembered, this is Milquetoast Mittens the Moderate we’re talking about here.
February 1st, 2012 at 7:40 am
Damn, I ought to go back to bed. 14.6. That’ll teach me to post while I’m still half asleep
February 1st, 2012 at 7:43 am
I see teledude is enrolled in the Advanced Gingrich course on civility in politics
Keep up the good work, teledude. You’ll be graduating magna cum laude at this rate.
February 1st, 2012 at 8:02 am
IF MITT WANTS FL he needs to offer (VP) it to Marcio rubio or Congressman Alan west i think ?
February 1st, 2012 at 8:05 am
isn’t FL more important then like other swing states or are ALL the swing state important? isn’t that why they picked tampa for GOP convention instead of phoenix? I was really surprised at the Romney Latino vote last night WE need to improve that even more for NOV!
February 1st, 2012 at 8:15 am
19,
Jeb Bush is another possibility for VP.
February 1st, 2012 at 8:31 am
Hey, Teledude has a definite point in #16. Mitt is not Barack Obama. He will pick the best person, man or woman, for the job. And if that person happens to be more charismatic than him, so be it.
More than one wag has made the observation that Biden is Obama’s assassination insurance. Mitt is no Barack. He will pick a person who, if the “awful awful happens” as Reagan put it, they could slide behind that big desk in the Oval Office, and the country would be in good hands.
February 1st, 2012 at 8:32 am
20,
In truth, Romney could pick a VP from another state. If he has people like Rubio, Jeb, and Gov. Scott campaigning for him and endorsing him in the general election, they can help get the Florida vote for Mitt in the general without the need of a VP from Florida. I just think Mitt will pick someone who he feels is qualified to be VP regardless of which state there from.
February 1st, 2012 at 8:34 am
22,
Someone with executive experience like a governor? A Christie, McDonnell, Jindal or maybe a Huckabee?
February 1st, 2012 at 9:42 am
Mitt needs to balance his ticket. Obama got a huge women’s vote the last election. Mitt needs either a woman or a Hispanic or a combination. Rubio would be fantastic. What is there not to like about him? But he keeps saying he won’t do it.
February 1st, 2012 at 9:53 am
One wonders how many people would have shown up and voted for Mitt if they thought he had any need of the vote. Florida was clear cut. Everyone knew who was going to win, which depressed turnout a little.
Mitt still got almost 170,000 more votes than last time.
February 1st, 2012 at 10:06 am
Glad to see Huntsman beat Bachmann and Cain.
Is anyone else bothered by the drop in turnout?
I believe the Democratic candidates boycotted FL in ’08, under pressure from the DNC, but it’s not like they had a Presidential contest this year either.
Is it flagging support, a weakened field, or just the apparent inevitability of Romney’s victory?
February 1st, 2012 at 10:27 am
Matt.27,
I’ll take option (3), “the apparent inevitability of Romney’s victory”.
In 2008, you had an exciting race. It went down to the wire. Most analysts say it was Crist’s last minute endorsement of McCain that put him over the top, and he only won by 5%.
Mitt nearly tripled that margin this year. So where’s the drama? Romney is going to win by a blowout, so why bother?
February 1st, 2012 at 10:49 am
with 4 folks left WHO DOES OBAMA REALLY WANT AS NOMINEE?
February 1st, 2012 at 11:20 am
Matt,
It’s that last one.
February 1st, 2012 at 11:25 am
29,
Obama would prefer Newt as his opponent in the fall. He wants nothing to do with Romney.
February 1st, 2012 at 11:37 am
really # 29? cause they say on tv they don’t care and i don’t really understand who his chicago campaign office really wants
February 1st, 2012 at 11:45 am
32,
They’d prefer Newt cause all of Newt’s baggage. That way the election would be about Newt & his antics and not a referendum on Obama. With Mitt as the opponent, Obama would be more forced to defend his record of accomplishment(or lack of) and that’s something he doesn’t want to do.
BTW, of course they will say they don’t care. They are not gonna admit they are worried about one of the GOP candidates being Obama’s opponent.
February 1st, 2012 at 12:35 pm
Mike Huckabee is the most qualify for the VP,that should be a winning ticket.
February 1st, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Well, a decisive victory, and it appears the volatile electorate broke for Willard. Similar to 2008 in that way… McCain saw a late break over Willard, who also rose slightly then, and Paul sagged.
Turnout was down over 14% from 2008. And 40% of those who voted want somebody else in the race, including about 1/3 of those who voted for Willard.
The only primary where the electorate rocked the vote over 2008 was SC. Not much voter enthusiasm, then. I can’t see that situation changing with a robot at the top of the ticket.
For Willard, I’d recommend putting away the blowtorch, as it’s obviously turning off voters, a complete turnaround from the situation in the election just 15 months ago. I don’t think this progressive loser has much chance of ever getting to the WH, but if he keeps up what he’s been doing, he has no chance. I’ll never vote for him, but he better plan on minimizing my like.
It is still inexplicable how he ever fantasized that this blowtorch was the way to go. NH and FL were there for the taking, and his overall strategic position likely wouldn’t have changed absent the blowtorch. So why? There was nothing to gain, was there?
But I guess progressives believe in intrusiveness. Now, that foolish tactical decision has weakened him strategically. This is about what I’d expect from a guy that’s really not much of a leader. He succumbed to panic and reactionary impulse. He’s a weak candidate, and he knows it, I guess, so he set out to destroy the opposition. Bad call. Better to lay low, take your lumps, hold your fire, and let time (and Goldman’s money) do its work.
Great generals win battles with inadequate resources. Willard himself is a markedly inadequate resource, and now seems exposed as a poor general.
February 1st, 2012 at 6:13 pm
The Gingrich campaign is challenging the FL take all saying that the delegates should be divided up proportionally. Can they do that? I take it SC was not winner take all?
The Gingrich campaign says there was a memo that said all states before April 1st cannot be winner take all. However FL has been penalized 50 delegates.
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