InsiderAdvantage (R) Florida Primary Survey

• Romney – 36% (40)
• Gingrich – 31% (32)
• Paul – 12% (9)
• Santorum – 12% (8)

Survey of 646 likely primary voters was conducted Jan 29 and has a margin of error of +/-3.8%. Results from the poll conducted Jan 25 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Gingrich is doing “substantially better” with men than Romney, 38 to 28, but the former House Speaker still faces a “gender gap,” as women are still favoring Romney. “Men are moving in droves to Gingrich and away from Romney,” Towery said.

As for Florida’s important Latino vote, InsiderAdvantage has Gingrich beating Romney by a large margin, leading 42 percent to 29 percent.

Public Policy Polling/DailyKos/SEIU (D) Florida Primary Survey

• Romney – 39% (40)
• Gingrich – 32% (32)
• Santorum – 14% (15)
• Paul – 11% (9)

Survey of 733 likely primary voters was conducted Jan 28-29 and has a margin of error of +/-3.6%. Numbers from the poll conducted Jan 27-28 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney continues to have a large lead in the bank in Florida. 34% of our respondents said they’d already voted and with those folks he has a 45-33 lead. That puts Gingrich in a position where he’d have to not only win the election day vote, but win it by 6 or 7 points to upset Romney in the state. The kind of reversal necessary to make that happen seems unlikely to occur in the next 48 hours.

Gallup has recognized twelve states for the upcoming 2012 Presidential election as swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin. There can be little doubt that the 2012 election will be won or lost in those states. They polled that group of states to see how each GOP hopeful fared against President Obama, and here’s what they found:

Gallup/USA Today Swing States Survey

• Romney – 48%
• Obama – 47%

• Obama – 50%
• Paul – 43%

• Obama – 51%
• Santorum – 44%

• Obama – 54%
• Gingrich – 40%

Survey of 737 registered voters was conducted Jan 24-28 and has a +/-5% margin of error.

The best thing I can say for this fan-produced tribute to Newt. It’s better than the web video the Gingrich campaign put out this weekend. However, I doubt many people will be singing, “Hoot hoot, everyone vote for Newt.”

Of course, every campaign has these sort of songs. Obama was noted for the Obama girl, but there were songs for many candidates including Ron Paul (of course), Fred Thompson, and of course, Mike Huckabee:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVnolGbbGGE[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSXJLZx5mpY[/youtube]

Pretty devastating stuff here.  Only thing that will save his campaign is if the media ignores it.

From Fox News, Gingrich getting desperate. This story from yesterday came out before the news about Bella:

Winter Park, Fla — Newt Gingrich has long argued that conservatives should rally around him if they didn’t want a Massachusetts moderate to win the nomination, but today when a man in the crowd chimed in with a comment about Rick Santorum, Gingrich gave the audience a good chuckle.

“I have great respect for my good friend Rick Santorum and he’s a terrific person,” Gingrich said in his closing remarks to a crowd of over 500 people gathered at the Liberty Counsel Forum at Aloma Baptist Church.

“We’ve known each other for, I guess 20 years now. But the fact is, he’s not going to win in Florida. There’s only one possibility for a conservative victory in Florida – in every poll. We’re tied in the last poll that came out last night – 35 for Romney, 35 for me and 11 for Santorum. And so my point is, if you talk to – cause all of you have friends that like Rick, that’s just a fact. He’s a very attractive, desirable person, with a great personal family story.” A man in the crowd yelled, “Next time around.” “Yeah – next time around is a good battle cry,” the candidate said to laughter. “He’s young enough, he can show back up. But please just try to convince your friends. The only effective practical conservative vote on Tuesday is for Newt Gingrich because that’s just a fact.”

Of course, the poll he cited is a bit of an outlier that was done before he has fallen behind Romney by double digits.  It’s worth nothing, he came into the weak leading by 8 or 9 points and then to put it simply, he bungled it badly in two debates. So badly in fact that he’s left to beg Santorum supporters to bail him out by switching to him. The latest polls reveal that Rick Santorum won’t win the Florida primary. Neither will Newt.

Call it campaign creative destruction, but I don’t think the Gingrich campaign is too big to fail, and fail is exactly what it’s doing. We’ve seen another Newt meltdown, just like what happened in Iowa when he had to struggle through weeks of no debates. This week, he turned in two horrid debate performances and won’t get another shot at a debate until February 22nd.  Newt is self-destructing all over the place and even if many Santorum supporters switched, it wouldn’t save Gingrich’s campaign in Florida, and it wouldn’t save Newt from himself.

The whole point about Newt being young enough to run again came from a voter who must think running for President is a little like applying for a promotion at work. In reality, it’s a physically, financially, and emotionally exhausting process that few people try to repeat. By the standard of being young enough to run again, so is Newt. Newt’s only 69 and McCain ran when he was 73 and Ron Paul is 76.I also heard from a voter in South Carolina when doing calls for the  Santorum campaign. It’s not a logical sentiment, but a dodge for voting for Newt because he can win (which is in itself, the most illogical political meme I’ve seen.)

Newt continued to put his foot in it on ABC this morning:

Following an onslaught of attacks in last week’s debates and on the Florida airwaves, Newt Gingrich amped up his criticism of frontrunner Mitt Romney this morning, aiming his arrows directly at Romney’s character and calling him “fundamentally dishonest.”

You want make this election about character? Really? Not a wise strategy as Stacy McCain reports that, “Attention young conservatives: Your grandma loves Mitt Romney…”

He quotes Romney’s speech where the Governor talks about his lifetime love for Ann Romney:

“There was a time back in high school that a girl I knew in elementary school became much more interesting. You see, Ann and I went to the same elementary school. She was in second grade, I was in fourth. I didn’t notice her then. But when she was just about 16, I noticed in a big way. We were at a party together at a friend’s house. She had come with someone else. I went to her date and I said, ‘Look, I live closer to Ann than you do. Can I give her a ride home for you?’ He said, ‘Sure.’ We’ve been going steady ever since. My sweetheart, Ann Romney.”

McCain goes on to offer his commentary:

After Mitt said that, I walked over to talk to another reporter, whose comment was: “Zing! He’s klling him!”

You see? Mitt didn’t even have to name Newt in order to emphasize the contrast: Mitt’s still with his high-school sweetheart, with whom he’s been “going steady” since 1965, while Newt is on Wife No. 3, with whom he had an affair while still married to Wife No. 2.

Maybe if you’re under 40, that kind of thing doesn’t matter much — Who are we to judge? — but to your mother or grandmother, raised on old-fashioned “family values” conservatism, it matters a lot.

In Governor Romney’s defense, I don’t think his introduction of his wife was a cynical ploy to contrast himself with Newt as the reporter (and perhaps McCain) think. Journalists tend to be cynical people who think everything a politician says is a matter of political calculation, and I don’t. In this case, I think the Governor was sincere.  But the fact does contrast with Newt Gingrich’s character.

In some ways, this current push for Gingrich as the, “One Conservative to Rule Them All” is reminiscent of Giuliani supporters from 2008. Many people who were pro-life thought Rudy was okay because he’d promised to appoint strict constructionist judges and they thought that should be acceptable to conservatives. Their problem? They assumed they because they thought it should be acceptable to social conservatives, that it would be. It wasn’t. When you begin to assume that others will accept what you think they should accept, you make a bad political error.  Gingrich supporters have assumed that all conservatives would accept the idea that Gingrich’s personal character was irrelevant because they thought it should be irrelevant.

The politics of wishful thinking didn’t Giuliani far and it won’t get Gingrich to the White House.  At this rate, Santorum will be in the race longer than Gingrich.

ABC News reports details on Bella Santorum’s condition:

The reason Bella Santorum was admitted to Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia Saturday night is because she has pneumonia in both of her lungs, a campaign aide told ABC News.

The 3-year-old, who has the serious genetic disorder Trisomy 18, is not on a ventilator, though, which is a very good sign. The family has medical equipment in their Virginia home and because of the risk of infection in hospitals they try to keep her out unless it is absolutely necessary.

She was in and out of hospitals the first year of  her life, but since then — aside from besides being admitted for surgeries — she has not spent any time in the hospital before Saturday, Rick  Santorum has said on the campaign trail.

Santorum will not return to Florida today, but his campaign will go on with the use of surrogates including the Senator’s eldest daughter and Jim Bob and Michelle Duggar and their five eldest children. Buzz Feed reports that sources within the Santorum campaign say  that Santorum is unlikely to return to Florida before the primary and that the next time he’ll be expected on the trail is in Missouri.

UPDATE:

From CBS, Bella is improving:

Sources told National Journal/CBS News that Bella, who was born with a severely disabling genetic disorder, was “improving” and was not on a ventilator.

Speaking on behalf of her father at a campaign rally at the Dolphin Aviation base here, Elizabeth Santorum said the candidate “wishes he could be here,” but that he is “exercising his most important role, which is being a dad. So that’s why he’s home…”

“I think back on the many nights around our kitchen table,” she said. “We knew from the very beginning that this would not be easy; this was not the easiest course for our family . . . but we knew that this would be worth it, because America is worth it.”

 

Also prayers and best wishes for Bella coming from Sarah Palin:

Thank you, Rick and Karen Santorum, for living the Christ-like example of sacrifice and right priorities. Nothing is more precious or important than the life of an innocent child. Our prayers are with Bella, a perfect child in an imperfect world.

God bless the beautiful Santorum family.

- Sarah and Todd Palin and family

Governor Romney and his wife Ann add their wishes as well:

Ann and I send prayers and best wishes for Bella’s good health to Rick and Karen Santorum and their entire family.

 Update II:

Lisa Graas, a blogger close to the Santorums shares on Facebook, “Report: Bella is doing well. Awake and crying….which is an improvement.”

Update III:

Never underestimate the power of prayer. From Twitter

On a tele-townhall w/ FL voters, Santorum says daughter Bella has had a “miraculous turnaround” + he expects to be back on the trail tom.

Hat-tip: The Argo Journal

Rasmussen 2012 Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 45% (46%) {45%} [46%] (46%) {46%} [45%](44%)
• Mitt Romney 43% (42%) {42%} [43%] (43%) {43%} [43%] (44%)

• Barack Obama 50% (49%) {48%} [48%] (48%) {49%} [48%] (47%)
• Newt Gingrich 37% (39%) {41%} [41%] (41%) {40%} [39%] (40%)

Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted January 26-28, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.  Results from the poll conductedJanuary 25-27, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 24-26, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 23-25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-24, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 21-23, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 20-22, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 19-21, 2012are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney currently picks up 77% of the Republican vote, while Gingrich earns 70%. Among unaffiliated voters, the president leads Romney by four and Gingrich by 17. Among women, the president leads Romney by 11 and Gingrich by 22. Among men, Romney leads the president by seven, but Gingrich trails Obama by four.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Today, Politico had two interesting articles about Mitt Romney’s electoral prospects and the current state of the race in Florida. The first details the recent success Mitt has had in the Sunshine State:

Like they have throughout the primary, the two Florida debates this week played a major role in Romney’s resurgence.

Romney took advantage of both debate audiences. The quiet, smaller crowd in Tampa allowed him to accentuate his sober demeanor. In Jacksonville, the hall was packed with vocal Romney supporters, much to Gingrich’s frustration.

Romney used both occasions to charge after Gingrich who, without the crowd on his side, was visibly off his game and didn’t go on the offensive.

The change was palpable, showcasing a different Romney than the unsteady South Carolina debater, in part thanks to new debate coach Brett O’Donnell, McCain’s and Michele Bachmann’s former coach.

…It shouldn’t be underestimated how much the Romney operation has managed to get into Gingrich’s head. From its first day in Florida, the campaign held daily anti-Newt conference calls featuring campaign surrogates. The calls didn’t break news, but left Gingrich to defend ever more allegations about his time as speaker and post-House career.

And there were the real-time Romney surrogates, tasked with trailing Gingrich from event to event and offering rebuttals to reporters in real time.

This so aggravated and distracted the Gingrich campaign that spokesman R.C. Hammond wound up in a yelling match Friday with Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz at a Delray Beach event. Chaffetz, using the Romney campaign’s buzzword for Gingrich, said Hammond became “unhinged” in responding to him.

…There was no way Romney was going to match the thousands of people Gingrich drew to campaign rallies Tuesday in Sarasota and Naples.

So he didn’t try.

Instead, the Romney advance operation built a series of small, made-for-TV events at the beginning of the week to spotlight the campaign’s message.

One, a Monday roundtable with eight people hit by the mortgage crisis, had as witnesses only the traveling press. The next day, Romney spoke to an invite-only crowd in an empty Tampa warehouse and stood in front of a foreclosed-by-Freddie Mac house to spotlight the mortgage broker for which Gingrich consulted.

As recently as Tuesday, Romney senior aide Eric Fehrnstrom told reporters the campaign would stick to “message-driven” events rather than big rallies.

I came away with two chief conclusions after reading this piece: 1. Romney has surrounded himself with a highly capable staff that knows how to adapt to changing circumstances and handle the cards dealt to them; and 2. It bodes poorly for Newt’s general election prospects if he and his team cannot handle the challenges imposed by a primary race. If they can’t cope with Romney surrogates pressuring them, how on earth can they possibly expect to combat the full weight of the Obama organization and the Democratic machine?

Unfortunately, with the positives, come some negatives, as highlighted by the next Politico article:

Obama’s biggest challenge, the CW goes, is winning back a percentage, however modest, of independents that have deserted him wholesale since 2009. So, it’s with no small degree of satisfaction that they are closely watching Mitt Romney’s recent swan dive with swing voters.

A poll-of-polls analysis of Romney’s recent unfavorable rating with indies, provided to POLITICO by a Democratic strategist, shows that the race has driven him way underwater, with more than 50 percent of unaffiliated voters given him failing grade; Only about a quarter of independents give him a favorable approval rating.

Romney’s staff says that this is simply a product of a ferocious GOP primary, and his numbers will rebound once the tidal wave of negative super PAC advertising recedes; Dems say voters are turned off by Romney’s Eddie Haskell, say-anything-to-get-elected style.

The latest bad news for Romney a Washington Poll poll last week showing him with a 23 percent approval/49 percent disapproval split with independents. Red siren, that: His unfavorables had been in the 30s, not bad, in recent months.

…But Obama, whose health care reform remains as popular with centrist voters as dry rot, will accept misery-loves-company parity. Romney’s unfavorables are also spiking with the larger electorate, up from 42 percent last year to 45 percent this month, according to the Pew poll.

“This is not normal,” the Democratic memo reads. “Republicans may claim that this is typical of a primary process — it is not.”

We Republicans cannot simply brush off this information. With the expanding numbers of Independents in recent years, if the GOP hopes to maintain long-term viability, Republican candidates need to enhance their appeal to these voters. Romney must launch an all-out assault to address this reality as soon as he (presumably) wraps up the nomination.

Gallup has released their Daily Tracking Poll for 1/29. Here are the graphics from their site:

Wow! Newt Gingrich dropped four whole points to 28%. Nobody has moved that much up or down in the history of this poll. He still is in the lead, however.

Mitt Romney pushes. He remains in second place with 26%. But with Newt’s drop, he is now just two points behind Gingrich.

Rick Santorum gets some movement. He climbs two points to 15%. That’s good enough for third place. It also marks the first time in ten days he hasn’t been in last place.

Ron Paul inches back up to his high mark of 14%. But with Santorum’s two point jump, he is in last place by one point..

NBC News-Marist Florida 2012 Presidential Poll

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Mitt Romney 42% [29%] (31%)
• Newt Gingrich 27% [44%] (6%)
• Rick Santorum 16% [2%] (1%)
• Ron Paul 11% [8%] (6%)
• Undecided 4% [8%] (11%)

Pre-Debate

• Mitt Romney 43%
• Newt Gingrich 29%
• Rick Santorum 13%
• Ron Paul 11%
• Undecided 3%

Post-Debate

• Mitt Romney 40%
• Newt Gingrich 25%
• Rick Santorum 18%
• Ron Paul 11%
• Undecided 5%

Voted Early or Absentee

• Mitt Romney 49%
• Newt Gingrich 27%
• Rick Santorum 17%
• Ron Paul 6%

(more…)

Rasmussen Florida 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 44% (39%) {32%} [41%] (24%)
• Newt Gingrich 28% (31%) {41%} [19%] (19%)
• Rick Santorum 12% (12%) {11%} [15%] (1%)
• Ron Paul 10% (9%) {8%} [9%] (3%)
• Undecided 5% (7%) {9%} [8%]

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 74% (69%) {59%} [51%]
• Could change mind 21% (24%) {32%} [41%]
• No preference yet 5% (7%) {9%} [8%]

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 53% (49%) {39%}
• Newt Gingrich 29% (34%) {42%}

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 28, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 25, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 11, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Among Very Conservative voters, Gingrich leads by six. However, among those who are Somewhat Conservative, it’s Romney by a 52% to 24% margin. The former governor also leads by 20 among those who are not conservative.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) in Florida now expect Romney to eventually win the GOP presidential nomination, up from 55% on Wednesday. Just 21% think Gingrich will be the nominee, down from 31% earlier in the week.

Seventy percent (70%) of Likely Florida Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of Romney. Gingrich is viewed favorably by 58%, Santorum by 64% and Paul by 37%.

Just 24% say the debates are a Very Important factor in their voting decision. Another 57% say they are Somewhat Important.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of Florida primary voters believe it would be good for another candidate to get in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Nationally, that figure is 33%.

Three percent (3%) rate the economy as good or excellent, while 67% say it’s in poor shape. Fourteen percent (14%) say the economy is getting better, but 59% believe it is getting worse.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Prayers up for Bella and her family. From the Santorum campaign:

As promised, here’s my recap of Speaker Gingrich’s performance at tonight’s Orange County Lincoln Day Dinner.

Comparing this event to last night’s Romney rally would be unfair and counterproductive. Dinners and rallies are two very different events. Just one significant difference; I’d say about 1/3 of the crowd (about 150 people out of the roughly 400 who were there) were pro-Newt. The rest were either for the other candidates or not saying. Still, Speaker Gingrich did get a warm reception. He spoke for about 15 minutes even though his campaign was running late to another event way down south in Palm Beach County (which is at least a 2-3 hour drive).

The context of the speech was interesting. While most of it followed the traditional Newt stump speech. Unlike Governor Romney’s remarks last night, this was a much more encompassing speech rather than solely an economic one. Paychecks v. food stamps, executive orders, and big ideas were all part of the speech. There were also some elements specifically tailored to tonight’s crowd. First, the Speaker did not attack his fellow candidates, even in passing. Without explicitly mentioning it, he also doubled-down on his moon colony idea by comparing himself to Lincoln; the Speaker talked about how Lincoln promoted the idea of railroads before they were in vogue. Gingrich promised to be the candidate of big, bold ideas in the fall campaign. He also attacked Senator Bill Nelson, Florida’s Democratic Senator who’s up for reelection which got him a standing ovation. The Speaker’s supporters certainly are sticking with him and gave him the response that you would’ve expected from the Gingrich partisans in the crowd.

What was interesting to me was how this speech reminded me of another Lincoln Day Dinner speech. It was back in 2008 the Saturday before our last Florida Primary when Mayor Giuliani was the speaker. The Mayor knew at that point that he was going to lose the primary and his speech seemed to realize it. He also had enthusiastic people in the crowd (this author included), but it seemed clear what the result was going to be. I got that same vibe tonight; it really felt like we were watching the last days of the Speaker’s campaign. In that sense, the mood was very different than that of the Romney rally last night. We’ll just have to wait for Tuesday to figure out if the vibe is true. Let me just say that it is a great privilege it is to be able to see the two leading candidates for the Republican nomination in my home town within 24 hours of each other. Democracy is a wonderful thing.

PPP has released their latest Florida Poll. Here are the results for their last three Florida polls:

	(1/16)	(1/23)	(1/28)
Romney	41	33	40
Gingrich	26	38	32
Santorum	11	13	15
Paul	10	10	9
Other/Unded	12	6	4

And here are the results in graphical form:

Mitt has retaken the lead that Gingrich held for the briefest of times just six days ago. Newt once lead by six points. He now trails by eight. That is a fourteen point swing in a week.

Santorum is gradually increasing his numbers, but he is still less than half that of Romney or Gingrich. Paul has slipped under ten percent in the Sunshine State.

This is in agreement with all the latest polls showing Mitt with a 7 to 9 point lead over Newt. With all the early voting going heavily for Romney, it is going to be difficult for anyone to catch him.

The conservative blog the “Shark Tank” is saying that Herman Cain will endorsed Newt Gingrich tonight. Here’s more from the Miami Herald:

The conservative Shark Tank blog says Herman Cain could endorse Newt Gingrich tonight in Palm Beach County during a Lincoln Day dinner there. There has been buzz for a month Cain might do it, Gingrich’s campaign said to expect a big endorsement tonight and earlier this evening GOP operative Roger Stone suggested Can might be the man.

Whether this makes a difference at all is a good question. Perhaps we should ask Craig Miller. Who’s that? He’s the guy in single-digits in the Florida Senate race primary polls who was endorsed by Cain recently.

But who knows, to the degree there’s an untapped reservoir of tea-party-like supporters who will be swayed by Cain, this could account for a few votes for Gingrich. But will it be enough to overcome Mitt Romney’s ever-widening lead in the polls? Probably not.

EDIT: It’s official – here’s Cain’s Twitter feed:

I am officially endorsing @NewtGingrich for President of the United States! #tcot

Mason-Dixon Florida 2012 Presidential Poll

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Mitt Romney 42% [28%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 31% [5%] (11%)
• Rick Santorum 14% [2%] (1%)
• Ron Paul 6% [4%] (3%)
• Undecided 7% [17%]

GENERAL ELECTION

• Mitt Romney 48% [51%] (48%)
• Barack Obama 44% [43%] (43%)

• Barack Obama 50%
• Newt Gingrich 41%

• Barack Obama 50%
• Rick Santorum 39%

President Obama Job Approval

• Approve 46% [41%] (43%)
• Disapprove 49% [56%] (56%)

Survey of 800 likely voters, including a subsample of 500 likely Republican primary voters, was conducted January 24-26, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points among all registered voters; +/- 4.5 percentage points among likely Republican primary voters.  Results from the poll conducted August 18-22, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April -7, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

The above is a picture taken at a Gingrich Hispanic Townhall today in Orlando. Note the “huge” crowds.

It is a hard and fast rule in politics to never book a venue larger than the crowd you expect. The visuals will kill you.

Assuming that Gingrich’s staff understands that most basic and simple rule from Campaigning 101, I am guessing that the hall above was booked shortly after Newt’s triumph in South Carolina when he was leading the polls, and because his collapse has been far more sudden than they expected they haven’t had the time to rebook to a smaller hall. Or perhaps the hall had a huge non-refundable deposit, and they are running short of money.

Whatever the answer is, it doesn’t look good for Mr. Gingrich.

BREAKING NEWS: Newt Gingrich engages in hyperbolic rhetoric.

Okay, please excuse the sarcasm, but the language Newt used in a Friday appearance in Florida gave me that exact reaction:

Gingrich began the day with new attacks against Mitt Romney, his top rival for the Republican nomination, launching an ad accusing Romney of distortions and deceptions “just to win an election.”

In an interview with The Washington Post, Gingrich said he was stunned by Romney’s debate performance the previous evening, which he characterized as “the most blatantly dishonest performance by a presidential candidate I’ve ever seen.”

…Gingrich said he was less combative during the [Thursday night] debate because he was shocked by Romney’s “totally dishonest” answers.

On several occasions during the debate, Gingrich leaned away from his lectern and looked at his feet. That was because he was so stunned by Romney’s statements, he said. He didn’t engage, he said, because “I wanted to fact-check. I wanted to make sure he was as totally dishonest as I thought he was.”

Really, Mr. Speaker? The “most blatantly dishonest performance by a presidential candidate”? Words like that are the mark of a desperate person. The fact that the person in question has a conspicuous predisposition toward revisionist history and inconsistency makes these over-the-top statements all the more absurd.

Gallup has released their daily tracking poll for 1/28. Graphics are courtesy of Gallup:

Newt Gingrich remains on top with 32%. His massive surge where he rocketed up eighteen points in a mere nine days appears to have spent itself. He has only managed to increase his support by a mere one point in the last four days.

Mitt Romney, on the other hand, has managed a two point bump after falling thirteen points in ten days. He is now at 26% and trails Gingrich by six points.

Ron Paul has fallen back a point to 13%. That is good enough for a tie for third place.

Rick Santorum didn’t move. He remains at 13%, tying Paul for last place. That makes ten straight days he been in last place either in a tie or all by himself. Florida may well be his last stand unless a miracle happens in the next three days.

Dear Fellow Conservatives,

Having explained in the previous four numbers why I support Rick Santorum for President, in these last two letters, I will turn the reasons why I strongly oppose the possibility of the nomination of Newt Gingrich for President.

If one thing has been more disturbing than any other in the course of this presidential campaign, it has been the position taken by supporters of Speaker Newt Gingrich on the issues of the Speaker’s character, particularly in relation to his affairs and divorces of ill wives. We’ve heard statements such as, “I don’t care what he’s done in his private life.”

These type of words were spoken by the cultural left during the Clinton Administration, and now embraced by many on the right. I’ve been a longtime critic of Mitt Romney because I believe him to be insincere. However, insincere politicians we’ve nominated before. However, we’ve never knowingly nominated someone who lacked the character to be president. Arguably, Richard Nixon lacked the moral fiber required but did a good job of putting up a front.

Supporters of Speaker Gingrich respond to concerns about his character with several statements such as making statements like, “Jesus isn’t on the ballot,” or will challenge those questioning Newt’s character as being unchristian and unforgiving. Finally, they will point out that Ronald Reagan was divorced. Some younger Newt supporters have argued that Clinton managed to be a pretty good president despite his numerous peccadilloes.

No candidate is perfect, but that’s hardly a reason to go out and choose the one with the most flawed character. Jesus isn’t on the ballot, but several better candidates are, all of whom have far better character than Newt.  In addition there would be a point about not judging Newt Gingrich’s personal life were Gingrich just a private citizen and political commentator. Railing against Gingrich then would be petty. Since his departure, Gingrich has raked in millions of dollars in speaking fees and book sales, he has been a frequent guest on conservative radio and television. No one has treated Gingrich as a pariah and slapped a scarlet “A” on his chest. Newt is not a poor ex-con who no one will give a job to, he’s a successful author, public speaker, and lobbyist.

The only reason Gingrich’s character is up for discussion is that he submitted himself as a candidate for President of the United States. When you do that, you give away all claims to demand that people not judge you, that they not examine and challenge your character. You are running for the most powerful office on the face of the Earth, if elected you will be entrusted with the lives of millions of American soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines.  We ought to evaluate the character of the person we give that job to.

And the issue is character. It must be acknowledged and understood that human beings all stumble and fall. We make mistakes, we sin, and we make poor decisions. If we reject every person who has any failings, we’ll have no one who can serve. However, there is a great difference between a moral failing and a fundamental flaw in character. The issue is not Gingrich’s affairs, but the character it reveals.

It’s quite possible for a long-ago affair not to reveal much of a politicians current character. For example, John McCain’s first marriage ended with affairs and a divorce before his marriage to his current wife, Cindy. The whole situation was a moral failing that came in the wake of McCain spending six years in the prime of his life in the Hanoi Hilton and returning to find his whole world changed and as McCain himself admitted, selfishness and immaturity. The incident didn’t tell us much about who John McCain was in 2008 as selfishness and immaturity were not characteristic of his public life over the past thirty years.

With Newt Gingrich, the situation is quite different. When Gingrich’s most-noted affair occurred, he was a national leader. It began in 1992 when he was forty-nine years old and second highest ranking member of the House Republican leadership. He’d just been witness to the embarrassment brought on the nation and on the family of Bill Clinton by Clinton’s scandals. He entered the affair anyway. He continued the affair, even as he approached the culmination of sixteen years of work to win a Republican Majority, which millions of Republicans across this country poured countless hours and millions of dollars into.

When he became Speaker, the affair continued. And it’s worth nothing that not only was he the most powerful Republican in the nation. He was two heartbeats from the Presidency. Yet, the affair continued, despite the possibility it would create for blackmail. Newt Gingrich was willing to put at risk his family, his party’s political fortunes, and the country second place to his own passions. The matter reveals in Newt egotism, recklessness, and a lack of discipline.

This characterized his time as Speaker of the House. At a time when the parties were at odds over a budget fight over America’s fiscal future and when Israel had suffered the violent assassination of its prime minister, Speaker Gingrich spoke up to complain about the seat he was given Air Force One on the flight to Israel.

It is true that Newt Gingrich and President Clinton reached an agreement for a balanced budget and to cap government spending, but it is equally true that with high unpopularity numbers, Gingrich broke the budget caps and overspent on waste and pork. His second term was marked by timidity and giving in to the Clinton White House on budget matters in the hope of maintaining his speakership rather than being disciplined and seeking to maintain the long term fiscal stability of the United States of America.

His presidential campaign likewise has been marked by egotism, lack of principle, and recklessness.

Gingrich’s campaign began with him criticizing Paul Ryan for “right wing social engineering,” in April, announcing his candidacy in May, and then taking a month-long Caribbean cruise in June alienating his staff and leading to mass resignations.

Gingrich spent most of the campaign telling us that Republicans shouldn’t go after each other, but rather go after President Obama. He made the point of praising each of his opponents, including praising Governor Romney’s business record. However, when Gingrich was attacked by Mitt Romney, he’s gone after Governor Romney’s private sector experience in a series of insincere and over the top attacks.

I can believe that Gingrich  is no longer practicing infidelity. What I don’t believe is that Newt’s fundamental character including the flaws that make him an unsuitable president, has changed. Character does matter.

Some have spoken of the Clinton Administration as some example of the irrelevance of character. I’d say that they either weren’t paying attention or had forgotten some key points. The Clinton Administration was the type of presidency you could only afford during a time of peace between the Cold War and the War on Terror. It was constantly adrift, keeping in the news cycle with one minor poll-tested initiative right after another after the failure of Hillarycare.

Clinton’s character problems doomed his efforts to do anything significant with his tenure. Clinton’s liaison with a junior staff member young enough to be his daughter and his decision to lie about it under oath and obstruct justice not only led to Bill Clinton’s eventual disbarment but sidelined social security reform in 1998. By the time the Lewinsky scandal had passed, Clinton had become an irrelevant lame duck president.

The President suffered a severe credibility gap as Commander-in-Chief. In February 1998, Clinton determined that a military strike against Iraq was necessary, yet he couldn’t get the support of the American public. Unable to go himself due to the Lewinsky scandal, he sent his National Security team and they were heckled and taunted. America didn’t believe Bill Clinton. Clinton’s military campaigns were marked by a series of air strikes without troops on the ground. This wasn’t because air strikes were always the answer, but because Bill Clinton lacked the moral authority to be able to send American troops into harms way.

His successor summed up the Clinton years well at the 2000 Republican Convention, “Our current president embodied the potential of a generation. So many talents. So much charm. Such great skill. But, in the end, to what end? So much promise, to no great purpose.”

Newt Gingrich should be placed in his proper historical perspective. He was a great revolutionary. His audacity and egotism may have made him a better revolutionary than some in a Republican Caucus that had become all too used to Republicans being in the minority.

However, what served him well as a Revolutionary, served him poorly as a Speaker who had to govern, and it would make him an even worse President.

Newt Gingrich, based on his massive unfavorable ratings, would be the least likely candidate to win in the fall, but if our national situation is bad enough, any candidate could become the next President.

The question for Republicans is whether they want to put in a place a pre-damaged President whose character flaws almost assure a failed presidency. The American people may find themselves willing to vote for anyone not named Barack Obama this fall, but will they be willing to trust Newt Gingrich’s judgment if he thinks we need to go to war in the national interest?  Do we really want to be the party that gives America a president that can’t discuss the importance of the traditional family to America’s future without Jon Stewart snickering.

Character matters. Character is destiny. And if there’s any wisdom remaining in the Republican Party, conservatives will ensure that Newt Gingrich’s destiny is not to be President of the United States.

Adam Graham can be followed on Twitter @Idahoguy

Miami Herald/War Room Logisitics (R) Florida 2012 Republican Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 40%
• Newt Gingrich 30%
• Rick Santorum 15%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Undecided 8%

1632 Registered Republican Voters in Florida were interviewed in a random sample. Interviews were conducted over 1/27/2012. Respondents were screened for voter registration and voter intent. All interviews were conducted by IVR. The margin of error for this survey is +-2.5% with a 95% confidence level.

Rasmussen 2012 Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 46% {45%} [46%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 42% {42%} [43%] (43%) {43%} [43%] (44%)

• Barack Obama 49% {48%} [48%] (48%) {49%} [48%] (47%)
• Newt Gingrich 39% {41%} [41%] (41%) {40%} [39%] (40%)

Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted January 25-27, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. Results from the poll conductedJanuary 24-26, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 23-25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-24, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 21-23, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-22, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 19-21, 2012 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

First Coast News/Dixie Strategies (R) Florida 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Newt Gingrich 35.46%
• Mitt Romney 35.08%
• Rick Santorum 9.38%
• Ron Paul 7.42%
• Someone else 3.93%
• Undecided 8.74%

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Mason-Dixon Virginia 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 45%
• Mitt Romney 44%
  
• Undecided 11%

• Barack Obama 49%
• Newt Gingrich 38%
  
• Undecided 13%

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted January 16-18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Romney leads by five points among independents, but Obama hoards 89 percent of Democrats to inch in front of the former Massachusetts governor.

Obama leads Gingrich by 11 points among independents.

Voters are mixed on Obama: 39 percent rate him favorably, 41 percent rate him unfavorably and 19 percent say they are neutral. Romney, on the other hand, has a more positive image rating: 36 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of him, while only 29 percent have an unfavorable opinion and 31 percent say they feel neutral.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Mason-Dixon Virginia 2012 Senate Poll

• George Allen (R) 46%
• Tim Kaine (D) 46%
• Undecided 8%

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted January 16-18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Inside the numbers

Kaine wins 90 percent of Democrats. Allen earns 91 percent of Republicans. By a six-point margin, independents lean toward Kaine.

Forty-one percent (41%) say they have a favorable opinion of Allen, while 39 percent have a favorable opinion of Kaine. But the percentages of voters having unfavorable impressions of each candidate is 18 percentage points fewer than their respective favorability ratings.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Mason-Dixon Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 45%
• Connie Mack (R) 42%
• Undecided 13%

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted January 24-26, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Forty-two percent of voters recognize Nelson’s name and have a favorable impression of him; 24 percent view him unfavorably. Another 22 percent are neutral, and 12 percent don’t recognize Nelson’s name at all.

Mack is clearly the front-runner among Republicans, the poll found. Among likely Republican voters, Mack leads former Sen. George Lemieux 38-12 percent. Trailing with 7 percent is Mike McCalister followed by Adam Hasner (4 percent) and Craig Miller (1 percent). About 38 percent of GOP voters, however, are undecided.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal