Public Policy Polling 2012 Missouri Primary Poll
Republican Primary Poll
- Santorum-45%
- Romney 34%
- Paul 13%
Republican Caucus Poll
- Gingrich-30%
- Santorum-28%
- Romney-24%
- Paul-11%
Favorability
- Santorum-63%-21% (+42)
- Gingrich 52%-32% (+20)
- Romney 46%-36% (+10)
- Paul 28%-57%(-29)
574 Regular Missouri Republican Primary Voters, conducted January 27-29th and a has margin of error of +/- 4.1%
January 31st, 2012 at 9:48 pm
I bet these numbers will change after tonight.
January 31st, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Newt can’t compete in Missouri. He’s not on the ballot.
January 31st, 2012 at 9:49 pm
so much for the Romney 2nd choice theory.
January 31st, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Santorum is well positioned to capture the zero delegates at stake in this critical primary.
January 31st, 2012 at 9:50 pm
In defense of my home state, let me point out that this is a PPP poll, which dramatically underestimated Mitt’s showing in Florida, and is run by KOS with a Leftist agenda. So Mitt is probably closer than this would indicate.
But also, this is sans Florida bounce and Mitt’s ads, which I anticipate. Mitt might commit funds despite the fact that this is a show contest. The real delegates are selected in Caucuses, which I will vote in, in March.
And in the Caucuses, note that all the important Republican names in this Republican state are for Romney. We will win this thing.
January 31st, 2012 at 9:51 pm
As I said in another thread. PPP has repeatedly short changed Romney this primary season. I think without exception Mitt has outperformed the PPP polls for each state thus far.
January 31st, 2012 at 9:53 pm
BTW,
Newt can’t compete in the delegate-free Primary, but he can compete in the delegate-rich Caucuses. But we will beat him like a drum.
January 31st, 2012 at 9:59 pm
This poll will be rendered irrelevant next week.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:01 pm
#8:
When Santorum wins Missouri.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:05 pm
#5
In South carolina, PPP put Romney at 28%, he finished at 27.8%.
In New Hampshire, PPP put Romney at at a 35-18% lead over Ron Paul. Romney won 39-22%
There’s no basis for saying PPP is biased against Romney.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:12 pm
Santorum could make February interesting.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:13 pm
Contrary to the attempts to coronate Romney, this race ain’t over yet. Don’t forget the multiple wild swings that we seen in this race. Voters looking for someone other than Romney won’t stop just because 4 states have voted. He certainly has the advantage and could possibly run the table from here on out, but there’s plenty of time left for a new surge by someone else. That would certainly fit the pattern of this race so far. If Gingrich implodes, Santorum could still give Mitt a fight.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Adam, I know you’re pretty realistic about things. Are you seeing a path for Santorum to 1144 delegates? In 2012?
January 31st, 2012 at 10:20 pm
Adam, Virginia’s off the table for Rick. Newt would have to drop out really quickly, and he seems more delusional that ever. Rick’s a nice guy. I’m not seing it. Weird things happen. Newt’s weird. I don’t think he’s weird in a way that helps Rick.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:22 pm
#13:
At this point, sure, Ohio is actually the biggest state to vote between now and April, which is a big difference from last time when the week after Florida, we had 24 states voting including California.
This is a different animal we’re dealing with, a lot of proportional states and later winner-take-all contests.
One thing I’ve also observed is that there are a lot of unpledged delgates elected this cycle. Free agents who will be hard pressed if they opt not to vote for the way the party faithful have voted. I think Santorum has a chance of beating Romney, particularly if he can dispatch Gingrich, who seems to be doing a good job dispatching himself.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:23 pm
Virginia’s off the Table for Rick, but that’ snot a ton of delegates. I can see Newt dropping out the week after Super Tuesday and with the lack of winner-take all contests, I think that’s plenty of time.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Good luck to Santorum. I just hope that he can stick to his plan of attacking Newt Gingrich this week. Oh but he’s talking about Romneycare tomorrow. Plan busted!
Santorum can’t get out of his way. He has no strategy, no organization and Newt Gingrich continually outwits him. Pathetic!
January 31st, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Dr J, let’s hope so.
To add to what Adam said, in Iowa PPP had Romney a point ahead of Santorum; they finished in a virtual tie. They did have Romney at 19%, 5 points lower than where he finished; but Santorum was 6 points lower.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:49 pm
By the way, I thought it was pretty funny for Santorum to state that Newt had his chance after South Carolina and failed. Couldn’t it also be argued that Rick had his chance after Iowa and failed now three times?
Of course I understand how short our memories need to be for any of these guys to succeed, but I do chuckle at the audacity it takes to do what needs to be done . . . even to lose!
January 31st, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Watchinitall, yeah, that’s true. On the other hand, Santorum never had an advantage in the polls, in any states, that he blew after Iowa. Gingrich had the lead in Florida, and blew it.
January 31st, 2012 at 11:34 pm
#20:
And Gingrich had a huge swing of more than 20 points against him in Florida.
February 1st, 2012 at 4:54 am
If Santorum has any brains he’ll camp out in Missouri. It’s the only chance he has to gather momentum.
February 1st, 2012 at 5:28 am
Irrelevant poll. Mitt is the man. Newt is toast. People want a winner and Romney will win MO.
February 1st, 2012 at 7:00 am
Is Newt on the ballot? Why fox says he is not?
February 1st, 2012 at 7:02 am
Newt’s failure to get on the Missouri, Ohio and Virginia ballots.
http://www.dailypaul.com/196346/newts-failure-to-get-on-the-missouri-ohio-and-virginia-ballots-and-problems-in-nh-are-causing-his-support-to-leave-in-dro
February 1st, 2012 at 7:11 am
The delegates are allocated for the caucus not the primary, but I think if Santorum wins the primary he will also win the caucus.
February 5th, 2012 at 11:14 am
[...] Missouri show how well Santorum beats Romney without Newt and how Newt is becoming the spoiler for the anti-Establishment team. Republican Primary (Gingrich not on ballet, no delegates) Santorum-45 Romney 34 Paul 13 Republican Caucus (everyone in, delegates) Gingrich-30 Santorum-28 Romney-24 Paul-11 [...]