January 31, 2012

Poll Analysis: Gallup Daily Tracking Poll

Gallup has released the results of their national daily tracking poll for 1/31, the day of the Florida Primary. The following graphics were taken from their website:

Not much happened today in the way of movement. Only one candidate moved; the rest pushed.

Newt Gingrich remains on top with 28%. He hasn’t moved in two days.

Mitt Romney also pushes. He remains at 27%, still one point behind Gingrich.

Rick Santorum is the only candidate with any movement today, and it was in the positive direction. He increased his support to 17%. That puts him within 11 points of Gingrich and 10 points of Romney.

Ron Paul, in common with Gingrich and Romney, retains the same level of support as yesterday. He remains all alone in last place with 13%. Since Santorum went up a point, Paul is now four points behind third place Santorum.

by @ 12:16 pm. Filed under Poll Analysis, Poll Watch
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49 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Gallup Daily Tracking Poll”

  1. Henry Hubitt Says:

    Santorum!

    Curious results. No Newt collapse, but Santorum surging anywho.

  2. marK Says:

    I would not call Santorum’s rise a “surge” just yet. He’s only gone up four points. Now if he were to break into the twenties, that would be a surge.

  3. marK Says:

    Still, it has to be encouraging to Rick. If Newt continues his collapse, he should get the benefit of that.

  4. Mike F Says:

    Given the way the tracking poll is set up, Santorum’s numbers were probably at 20 yesterday. It is quite likely that he will surpass Gingrich after Florida and will emerge as the last ABR. While Santorum’s sanctimonious disposition is sometimes hard to endure, it would be a welcome relief to get rid of Newt’s delusions and have our final two candidates able to discuss the issues and, more importantly, their plans for the future. Here’s to hoping that Santorum is able to dispense with the Newt, and let the Romney vs. Santorum race begin!

  5. Mike F Says:

    One more note, I hope Hannity and Fox take away Newt’s disproportionate free air time after Florida. At some point, it would be interesting to get a quantitative analysis of the value of Newt’s time on air, and the verbal support of Fox commentators. I hope this ongoing display of idiocy costs Fox lots of revenue over the coming years as more people wake up to the fact that most of their programming is incredibly vacuous.

  6. John Galt Says:

    This race aint over.

  7. ccr Says:

    #5. Amen on Fox’s shameless support for Newt.

    They’ve lost much of my viewing. Hannity’s professed patriotism is shattered with his protection of someone who is mentally unfit for the POTUS.

  8. asparagus Says:

    I’ve stopped watching Fox as well. Might as well be the DNC channel in my book.

  9. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Fox’s big problem for me is that they somehow feel their job is to simply repeat what the candidates are saying, rather than challenging them on it on content.

    Their reporting is like this: “Newt Gingrich says Mitt denied Jews kosher meals. It’s tough stuff!”

    How about saying this: “Newt Gingrich says Mitt denied Jews kosher meals. We checked on that, and it’s actually incorrect. Tough stuff down there, and he is getting desperate.”

    That’s what reporting is SUPPOSED to be about.

  10. Joshua Says:

    But have Mitt, Ron, and Rick tried to get on Hannity’s show and been denied?

    What’s worse is all the time Greta Van Susteren gives to Donald Trump’s presidential fantasies. Last week she had a segment based on the fact that Trump’s daughter Ivanka wanted him to run for president. Well, I’m sure the other candidates’ children support their candidacies, too, but that’s not exactly newsworthy.

  11. Harold Says:

    Still calling for the silencing of your political rivals, fever swampers? So you want the Willard blowtorch AND censorship? You sure you don’t want to consider the North Korean relocation, as a more cultural fit for you? ;-)

    And if Santorum passes Gingrich, he’ll first have to pass Willard, who’s holding at his historical Anybody But Willard ceiling.

    As I review this latest Gallup, I’m starting to believe that Willard is gonna be thankful he and Goldman Sachs bought and paid for that early Florida vote these past couple weeks. Absent that, this FL primary might have been a spear through his heart. It may anyway. Those MOE thingies are funny animals, you know. ;-)

  12. Watchinitall Says:

    It would be very interesting to see some sort of regional breakdown on this. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gingrich behind everywhere but in the South.

  13. K.G. Says:

    Newt’s not going quiet into the night and Palin’s going to keep “raging against the machine.” Fox supports Newt big time, Palin supports him, Rush supports him. Hannity supports him. He manages to be everywhere on radio and TV. On Hannity everyday all day. I thought I saw him on Encore Westerns and Home and Garden TV wallpapering a room. He’s ubiquitous with his big fat lying mouth, which is getting worse.

    His PAC is playing anti-Mitt ads in CA as we speak. Newt will do well in GA and the South where people will not be feelin’ the love for Mitt and Rick.

    He will be a constant thorn in Mitt’s side as long as people keep giving him any money at all and free air time on conservative radio and TV.

    As long as he has ANY forum he will continue to have credibility with some or many–until he can completely be discredited as a complete lying loon.

  14. No Nutty Professor Says:

    6 John

    No it’s not……but the nutty Professor is finished.

  15. Harold Says:

    Wait… Willard wasn’t fabricated with a heart… so maybe his PLC would get hit with an EMP and short out, or something. ;-)

  16. K.G. Says:

    #14 The Nutty Professor is a Crazy Cockroach. Shutting him up and finishing him off is going to be harder than it should be. He has his supporters.

  17. No Nutty Professor Says:

    k.g.

    Your right, but by the end of February the Newtered one will have lost 8 out of the first 9 races and his money will dry up. He will always be crazy but people will stop listening to him.

  18. K.G. Says:

    #17: No Nutty: I hope you’re right and you probably are. But people who should know better are supporting him now. It’s a concern.

    He can never win, but he can cause trouble. This is a bad person. Nobody w/a brain who cares about the country should be giving Newt the time of day. The fact that they are is scary.

  19. teledude Says:

    ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
    Missouri caucus: Gingrich 30, Santorum 28, Romney 24, Paul 11:

  20. Micah Says:

    19. Good news for Mitt.

    He will end up with 40-50% by the voting day.

  21. teledude Says:

    ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
    Ohio primary: Gingrich 26, Romney 25, Santorum 22, Paul 11:

  22. teledude Says:

    ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
    One on ones: Gingrich leads Romney 43-42 in Missouri and 42-39 in Ohio:

  23. Ryan60657 Says:

    Surge-torum ought to be requesting Newt to drop out, not the other way around.

  24. Sir David Says:

    9. MassCon

    Journalism SHOULD mean doing research. But instead it has become repeating talking points and finding sensational stories. Truth? Whose interested in truth anymore? Sound-bytes. That’s the name of the game.

    Wasn’t it interesting that CNN did an on-the-spot fact check of whether it was Romney’s ad that said Newt called Spanish the language of the Ghetto?

    Wolf: “We just checked and it was indeed your ad, governor”.

    Mitt should have asked them to do a real-time check on whether Newt called Spanish the language of the Ghetto.

  25. No Nutty Professor Says:

    19 teledude

    LOL, The newtered one showed how inept he is and once again did not make it onto the MO ballot…….didn’t make VA or MO, what an idiot!

  26. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    22

    He should be leading by a LOT more than that, considering the national polling numbers and regional considerations.

  27. K.G. Says:

    Newt’s not even on the MO ballot, which is a “beauty contest.” No delegates until later in the primary. All these quirky primary rules. Yikes!

  28. Harold Says:

    Goodness, those state polls are fugly for Willard.

    But then, the blowtorch hasn’t even got to full incineration there yet.

    Heck, Willard’s gonna have those Kyoto Treaty guys down on him, before it’s all over. ;-)

  29. No Nutty Professor Says:

    Harold and tele don’t see the writing on the wall. The newtered one is NOT on the MO ballot.

    “Newt Gingrich did not fill out the paperwork for the primary in time; that’s something he’s told media was intentional”.

    And you say he is the smartest man in the race???? Bhaaaaaah

  30. teledude Says:

    The President’s re-election campaign raised 68 million in the 4th quarter.

    Mitt should hang on to some of that money he’s spending to destroy Newt….

    just sayin’

  31. CF Says:

    Only a true moron would post polls for states showing his guy leading who ISN’T EVEN ON THE BALLOT!!!

    Harold -
    You know that we all enjoy you on this site because you give us entertainment right? You don’t actually BELIEVE you’re doing anything other than make us all chuckle do you?

    Mitt’s taking Florida. Wow! Never thought I’d see that happen. What a great day today is when Conservatives finally make the right choice! I just can’t stop smiling! ;)

  32. ccr Says:

    #30………the first thing to do is WIN the primary. Taking charge and getting it done is first priority. Then…..Obama.

  33. Dave Says:

    The lines are about to cross again, and for the last time. Tomorrow or the next day, Mitt will be on top and in the ascendancy. Not that national polls are worth anything at this point, but they will track with the relevant state contests.

    Given that 78% of Mitt’s network coverage has been negative, while everyone else’s has been positive on a net basis….and given that Mitt has had relatively little face to face time on television, he’s doing very well. But the salient fact is that he lost the last Primary, and it’s the last Primary he’s going to lose for awhile.

    He can get interviews on TV, and he does that…..but the agenda of the media and HIS agenda are very different things. To thine own self be true.

  34. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    30

    Then maybe Noot should get out of the race like a true patriot would. He can’t win and he’s hurting the Conservative movement.

  35. RayinRI Says:

    #30 Teledude

    First, I hope you realize Newt isn’t even on the Missouri ballot, not sure why you posting the poll.

    Second,
    “The President’s re-election campaign raised 68 million in the 4th quarter. Mitt should hang on to some of that money he’s spending to destroy Newt….”

    No worries, once Mitt locks up the nomination he will go into fund raising mode, he can pull in 10 Million in one day, raising money will not be an issue for him.

  36. drob Says:

    Today we find out really about Florida. I pulled myself out of posting here when Kavon asked me to not publish negatives about Newt’s wife. I promise as I did to Kavon formally that I wouldn’t attack Newt’s wife in a previous post again. Today, I wanted to go on the record for several other issues I find in this race.

    A) When Mitt lost South Carolina by 10%+ did he go around accusing Newt Gingrich of everything under the sun? Did he say a word about the anti-Mormon bigotry that was reflected in the CNN Exit polls or did he just roll over and say “It’s all their fault.”? No he retooled his approach, recruited Bachmann’s debate coach, become more aggresive, more sure of himself, more on target, with more passion then I ever thought Mitt could generate. Instead of licking his wounds, he changed his plan. It obviously is working. If Mitt wins by 10% in a must win State for the GOP in Nov., based on 10% win, that equal 200,000 votes. That is almost as many as Newt received in SC and if he wins by more…you can see where this is going. You learn from your mistakes and move on.

    B) February is really a Mitt month. It appears his goal was to survive to now and not only is he surviving (should he win FL.) he will be going into a ton of Mitt states with a FL tailwind and with an NV, MI, AZ, CO, MN, ME, and MO (Newt not on the ballot) Mitt should have even more tailwind to carry him on to Super Tuesday.
    Should Mitt do well in states he’s done well in the past and momentum coming out of FL. my guess is he might just win all the caucuses and primaries between now and Super Tuesday. Where VT, MA, OH, VA (Now a Romney State due to incompetence)it leaves on OK, TN and GA on Super Tuesday for someone other then Mitt to win. Plus generate enough momentum to carrier them on. As the number of states continues to increase as the days go forward, where will Santorum go to find a firewall so to speak, and more important where will Newt go to find a firewall. They both need states that they can call their firewall. Georgia is too late for Newt, and Santorum will find it tough in PA. Both of these guys needed FL to really continue.

    C. Look at the real support of the candidates. Limbaugh, Cain, Palin, Hannity, Levin are all ultra conservative talk types with zero power to move congress, or to change anything because as much as they wished they were they can’t anything really to make a change. Beside who really knows their motives for what they do anyway. All they can say is “I told you so.” Look at the list of support Mitt Romney has been garnering. Senators, Congressmen, Governors and so on, why because they are in fact the people who will make change. And as each of these governors, Senators and Congressmen have endorsed Mitt, they have been given a new title of RINO. These people have invested their political capital in a candidate they want to work with to get something done. I’ve seen on this site several times that endorsements don’t mean anything. I believe they do. I can’t imagine how Mitt would have been able to reach as many of the Cuban Republicans as he has without the Cuban Congresspersons supporting him.

    D. When a person applies for a job, usually there are prerequisites that have to be met in order to be qualified to actually do the job. It is a requirement to meet these specific tasks. When candidates fail to get on a ballot, they are demonstrating an inability to do these prerequisites. Mitt Romney will have spent 13 million or more to get 50 delegates in FL. and nothing to get 50 delegates in VA since VA is a winner take all state. So if I’m a businessman, with a certain budget, I will throw more resources into FL that I might have been holding on to for VA. Bad Planning leads to bad performance. This takes nothing away from Ron Paul who has done his homework as well.

    This poll will come into line in the days ahead but we will see a big jump when Mitt wins FL. today (If he does.) The steam rolling will start tomorrow.

  37. glw Says:

    http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-january-30-2012/indecision-2012—floridal-kombat

    Finish him, Mitt! No more Mr. Nice Mormon!

  38. Bill Says:

    Teledude,

    Romney can’t use money raised for the primary in the general against Obama.

  39. Mark in PA Says:

    37
    LOL!!!!!!!!!!!

    Loved it.

  40. Mark in PA Says:

    28
    Hey Harold, I’m glad you’re here. It’s interesting to me how you seem to say basically the same stuff as other ABR posters, but not in an ultra rude way (to me, anyway). Meaning, I think you actually think about what you’re saying, so I’ll just respectfully disagree with you.

    You kinda came late to the party, though.
    You would have loved it about three months ago. Many of your fellow warriors have dropped off or become assimilated into the Romney Borg.

  41. Dave Says:

    Good job Drob.

  42. No Nutty Professor Says:

    36 drob

    Well written and right on target!!!!!!!!

  43. aspire Says:

    You know if Santorum wasn’t splitting the non-Southern vote Romney would be winning this poll. ;)

  44. Brett H. Says:

    Newt will be on the ballot for the Missouri caucus!! The primary does not award delegates rombots.

  45. Annette Says:

    30. Teledude

    So you are saying Mitt will be the nominee…

  46. Annette Says:

    36.

    Well said…Bravo!

  47. No Nutty Professor Says:

    44 Brett

    even if the Newtered one can’t fill out the paperwork, which makes him stupid or a bad manager, I hope he is on the ballot giving him one more legitimate LOSS!!!!!

  48. Harold Says:

    Mark in PA,

    I’m not late to the party. I’m on time. Willard’s blowtorch just got lit off a few weeks ago. Absent that weird pyromania, we’d simply have a presidential primary, and I have no reason to heap on you willardbots for liking your guy, obviously.

    But this weird and vulgar Willardity? This is bad, especially for your boy Willard. And it’s like he and you don’t even understand that. I’m watching this poor dummy commit suicide. And he is dumb, folks. Only a detached robot would be doing what he is.

    Huckabee called this guy out for this stuff 4 years ago, remember. But Willard is just morally degenerate, and even a detached automaton is to be held responsible for that behavior.

  49. RJPeck Says:

    The Missouri Caucus has followed what the primary has told it to in the past.

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