In the game of chess, when a player has reached the point where it is obvious that he can’t win, he has the option of resigning the game. He does this by tipping over his king. This is a perfectly acceptable thing to do. In fact, among serious players, it is expected. To continue the game beyond the point where it is obvious you cannot win is actually considered bad form and is known derisively in chess circles as “playing for heart failure”.
I thought of that when I read this blurb from BuzzFeed:
Campaign strategy boils down to blind hope Romney will somehow blow it
—
A Gingrich insider emails saying tonight’s distant second-place finish is “devastating” to his campaign.
“He needed this to get more money raised,” the source writes, lamenting that there are no debates until February 22nd and no real primaries until the 28th.
He adds “BUT…who knows anything could happen over next month…staying in makes anything possible.”
I’m not so sure Newt’s cause is hopeless just yet. There is still a lot of primaries to be run. There is still the fact that he did manage to come roaring back after devastating losses in both Iowa and New Hampshire to take South Carolina. He was able to do that because Mitt Romney made the mistake of thinking Gingrich was finished and could be ignored. Boy, was he wrong!
Yes, Newt could come roaring back again, I suppose, but making the same mistake twice is not something Mitt is prone to do. Quite the opposite, in fact. Couple that with the news that the other ABR still in the race, Rick Santorum, is definitely making a play for any Newt’s supporters who might be souring on the former Speaker of the House, Gingrich is facing a long, rather discouraging February.
Is he, “playing for heart failure”? We’ll soon find out.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:10 pm
Gingrich doesn’t have the ego to leave, but he may be forced out though probably not until March. If Gingrich wins any states other than Georgia and Alaska I’d be very surprised. And if things continue the way they are going, I’d be shocked if he won Alaska.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:11 pm
Thank you Florida for allowing us to finish the job.
Give em hell Mitt!
January 31st, 2012 at 10:14 pm
Newt is winning this election….for Romney. Every time Newt mentions that “Mass moderate” and “that moderate Governor from Massachusets”, he’s basically telling the entire middle electorate in America….this guy is reasonable, measured, fair, capable of working with wacky liberals, not prone to excess, balanced, judicious, and thoughtful.
What Newt, and Rush and Sarah and so many others don’t realize is that more than any othe election in the last half century, moderates and independents will determine who wins, and Newt’s pitch for Romney’s moderate traits is selling big time.
Florida Independents went 60% to 20% for Mitt. End of story.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:16 pm
Romney learned from his mistake after IA and NH; he’s not going to let Gingrich off the mat again. Fortunately there are no debates for 23 days and caucuses require money, something Newt is going to rapidly run out of. Newt will probably try to stay in to play in the Southern states on Super Tuesday, but a broke Gingrich who has the loser tag probably won’t be able to bounce back.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:16 pm
#3:
Independents couldn’t vote in the Florida primary. It’s closed to just Republican voters.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:18 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmLv8rfunPo
January 31st, 2012 at 10:22 pm
Newt is toast. Pull out now before he is in flames. Mitt is the man!
January 31st, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Newt is about to suffer the death of a thousand cuts. He will rue the day he got into this race. It will be the implosion of his monstrous ego, and it will be totally devastating.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:26 pm
#8:
I know, and I can’t stop smiling. No one deserves to get clobbered in state after state more than Gingrich.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:32 pm
By the looks of it, I think Gingrich would be the 1st one with heart failure.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:35 pm
#5
Even among registered Republicans you have moderate and independent tendencies. I’ve worked on a few exit polls and found the most interesting cross-tab is the number of people who voted contrary to their party affiliation or political philosophy.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:44 pm
5–Voter’s affiliation doesnt correlate with party identification. Voters just aint that simple. There are millions of American Democrats who consider themselves conservative, ya know. And many republicans who see themselves as quite moderate.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Gingrich thinks maybe Americans will share him.
January 31st, 2012 at 10:52 pm
If one of these guys is gonna end the race with “heart failure,” I would bet $10,000 that it will be Newt. He looks like &^%$$# tonight, even for him. Exhausted, obese, eyes sunken and dead; old and weak. He needs to take a break.
January 31st, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Newt will not go quiet into the night. He will stick around like a stinking fish, fouling things up and causing trouble. That’s the story of his life.
January 31st, 2012 at 11:20 pm
An analysis of the states that are either completely winner-take-all (FL, AZ, PR, WI, DE, DC, MD, UT) and states that are winner-take-all for state delegates and district delegates where the winner can likely leave with most or all the delegates (CA, VA, NJ, CT, NY, SC). Heavily favor Romney. These will be the deciding states as other states are proportionate using various formulas and the winner may just have a few more delegates than 2nd place. Also there are many superdelegates from most states and some states have nonbinding delegates that can do what they want. These will also heavily favor Romney (Republican party insiders). Newt is toast no matter how you look at it. I can’t imagine someone would flush their money down the toilet by giving it to him.
January 31st, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Newt is total trash. Couldn’t find it possible for him to call Mitt and congratulate him on winning Florida. Mitt called him to congratulate him on SC. Total trash.
https://twitter.com/#!/daveweigel/statuses/164539468144066560
January 31st, 2012 at 11:40 pm
16
Bingo. I’m glad you found those states and listen them. Very good post.
February 1st, 2012 at 12:02 am
CA talk shows are turning for Mitt. They are on to Newt.
February 1st, 2012 at 12:04 am
18
Yes, and when you add in Romney’s organization especially in caucus states, his huge money advantage and Newt’s very high dislikeability that wears on people, it’s over. But knowing Newt he will trudge on until he runs out of money or people start ignoring him. Also the media still does not get or fully comprehend how nearly impossible Newt’s pathway is and still let him go on and speak of his campaign with grandiose confidence without challenging him. The smart thing for the ABR’s would have been to dump Newt a long time ago as an inherently flawed candidate and consolidate behind Santorum. Then, they may have had a chance, but now even that is too late.
February 1st, 2012 at 12:35 am
James.20:“The smart thing for the ABR’s would have been to dump Newt a long time ago as an inherently flawed candidate and consolidate behind Santorum. Then, they may have had a chance, but now even that is too late.”
Yes, and we all have Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, Erik Erickson and their ilk to thank for that. If they had rallied around Santorum instead of Newt Gingrich, it is quite likely that Rick would have emerged out of South Carolina as the ABR candidate of choice. The race dynamics would be totally different. Two honorable candidates battling it out over ideas.
But it was not to be. They wanted a pugilist more than they wanted a president, so they all pushed Gingrich, a terribly flawed candidate, upon their adherents. And now they’re stuck up the creek without a paddle.
There is something wickedly satisfying about seeing people hoisted by their own petards.
February 1st, 2012 at 1:36 am
Yeah, Rush gave a sort-of endorsement to Santorum today way to late in the game. He did the same thing in ’08 with Romney when he was anti-McCain. Too little too late. Palin has lost all logic and has lost a ton of credibility in my book. Erickson also seems to have a screw loose somewhere and makes a fool out of conservatism on CNN by supporting Perry (a very weak candidate) and now Newt who is even worse.
February 1st, 2012 at 1:56 am
Newt’s erratic behavior will become more evident. His cheerleading section will quickly fade, and he will have difficulty dealing with it, which will result in more erratic behavior.
Newt’s exit will be one of the sorriest spectacles in modern day politics.
February 1st, 2012 at 9:31 am
Re.22: I gave up Rush and Hannity cold turkey after the South Carolina vote because I couldn’t tolerate their relentless spin. How could they ignore the truth that had been revealed about Newt? Wasn’t the gap in the woman’s vote for Newt predictable? BTW, I have been listening to John Gibson instead of Rush and although he supports Romney, he allows all sides to weigh in. The show is very entertaining.
The only honorable alternative to Romney is Santorum. However, I believe that Romney is really truly conservative and poised with his smarts and business experience to fix this country’s economy. I would be proud to have Mitt and Ann in the white house.
February 1st, 2012 at 9:44 am
Newt won’t come back. Women don’t like him and they are not going to change their minds.