Since the outcome of today’s primary isn’t in much doubt, I thought I’d delve a little deeper and try to come up with a guess at a Florida map. This is by no means statistically rigorous. I basically consulted ’08 and ’10 maps, both primary and general election, and then worked from the following assumptions:
1. Romney will do especially well in wealthier, older, more diverse, and more urban counties.
2. The ’08 primary map is a reasonable guideline for Romney’s relative strengths with one caveat: he’ll do less well, relatively, in more conservative counties which aren’t dominated by wealthy voters.
Here’s the map I’ve come up with:
The counties labeled “Strong Romney” are counties I’d guess Mitt will carry by more than 10%. Florida veterans, what say you?
January 31st, 2012 at 2:02 pm
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-january-30-2012/indecision-2012—floridal-kombat
Finish him, Mitt! No more Mr. Nice Mormon!
January 31st, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Takes it by 50% or more, is my wager.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:07 pm
I think you’ve given too much to Noot and not enough counties to “strong Romney,” but this is generally what it’s going to look like.
Only thing is, the +10% Romney ought to be +15% Romney. Mitt will win by 10% in a LOT of counties.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Mass Con,
The counties I give to Newt probably account for 5% of the total vote. And the counties I put in the “strong Romney” category probably account for like 60% of the vote. It’s possible he’ll carry a few more counties by more than 10. But note that in some of the most populous counties, like Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Hillsborough, Lee and Collier, he could win by 20 points or more. So it balances out.
I could have done +15. Wouldn’t have changed much. Probably the Northern counties I put in the “Strong Romney” column would have been downgraded. Not sure if that would have given you a much better picture.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Well, it looks good. I was just saying I think it’s going to look even better tonight.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:25 pm
No idea at this point. I suspect it winds up being a high single-digit win for Romney, somewhat less than the current RCP average, because the Pitchfork Crowd that Mitt will need in November (and may well not get) will come out for Newt today.
You should have made Romney blue though. After all, Romney is the self-admitted “progressive.”
January 31st, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Michael Medved setting the record straight on the hideous accusations from Newt calling Mitt “trying to starve to death holocaust survivers” in his robo-calls.
This is now being called “kosher-gate.” Apparently, there were 3 non-Jewish nursing homes who kept koshers kitchens for their very few Jewish residents who kept kosher. The Dem legislature wanted to spend $600,000 NEW money for the kosher kitchens. The nursing homes actually wanted to save money by continuing to serve kosher, but wanted to have it catered or brought in from other nursing homes who kept kosher.
Never were the residents going to be denied kosher. Mitt vetoed the $600,000 in new spending, but the legislature overrid the veto.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:28 pm
I once took a drive along Lake Okeechobee. Scary stuff. Must be what Appalachia looks like. But swampy. Accentuated by the fact I had Depeche Mode greatest hits cranking.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:28 pm
I like Romney being red because this is what a Romney vs Obama map will look like!
Yea… Thats right I said it. Romney will destroy Obama.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:30 pm
6
Newt is to the left of Romney. There is no disputing that. He pushed for the mandate in OBAMACARE in 2009 while Obama and his cronies were crafting the bill. He advotates a $10 trillion moon base. He bashes free enterprise, the wealthy, and Captialism.
The only thing he’s “Conservative” on is foreign policy, and only because he models himself after Truman and FDR.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:30 pm
6
Funny about the “blue”.
Our nominee is going to be red, and Newt’s color really should have been green.
No counties at all for Santorum? I would think at least one up on the panhandle would go to him. Of course, Newt did dominate in SC with those kind of voters, so I could be wrong.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Mitt and his minions outspent Newt $17M to $5M, and he had all the grey poupon smearing establishment types distorting (Elliot Abrahams, etc) to do his bidding.
If Mitt can’t get a double digit win when he is up by 13 in the RCP average then sure I wouldn’t want to be a Rombot on the first Tuesday of November.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:33 pm
12.
Give us 5 more hours to finish the effort.
No anecdotal information yet of any consequence.
Give em hell Mitt!
January 31st, 2012 at 2:33 pm
#11
“Those kind of voters” are no more going to Santorum than they would for Mitt. Newt is a good ol’ Southern boy. He’s family. Rick and Mitt are outsiders.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:33 pm
7
More importantly, the kosher meals would have gotten to those folks, anyway. The money was for BUILDING the kitchens. The food was going to be bused in from elsewhere anyway.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:34 pm
10 – You’re nuts. Where was Mitt all throughout the 1990′s? Where was Mitt on the life issue until he was 60.
This board is infested with Romney supporters but out in the real world people know the score. There are some deep deep divisions within the GOP. More so than what we had in 2008. And I’m not at all convinced that they will be healed by November.
Which is fine, because I am totally hoping for Romney to lose.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:35 pm
12
Mitt NEEDS to outspend Noot 3 to 1 because of all the lies spread about him on TV and radio.
It’s a WASH.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:35 pm
12
Funny, but you don’t want to be a Rombot… ever. So who cares what you think?
If you’d support the eventual nominee, then we could actually talk. But you’re just like a liberal… we’ll never understand one another, so what’s the point. Go piss up a rope.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:36 pm
#12 It should be plain for all the see that Newt is unable and unstable. Mitt’s done his best of bring Newt’s character and temperament out in the open. If people are just too damned dumb, deaf and blind to see it, don’t blame Mitt.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:36 pm
14
Good point.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:36 pm
16
Mitt was IN BUSINESS in the 1990s.
Where was Noot in the 2000s? K Street. Obamacare. Cap and Trade with Pelosi. Freddie Mac.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Rubio: “Florida winner will be the nominee.” Hmm…
January 31st, 2012 at 2:37 pm
21 – Cute. But we have all the videotape in the world from 1994.
It’s ok. The mod squad on this blog may get their man. But there will be zero enthusiasm for this guy in November.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:39 pm
23
We have this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSXJLZx5mpY&feature=channel_video_title
Look, Mitt ain’t perfect, that’s for damn sure. But he’s better than the others by a long shot.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:39 pm
#17: MassCon: Amen to that. Fox has given Newt and Sarah carte blanche to lie and distort w/NO challenge.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:39 pm
You know before Glenn Beck this year the word progressive did not mean what is means today. It did to Beck, but not to me… And I’m sure it didn’t mean socialist to Mitt Romney.
Hey I am wondering what people think about Mitt singing like he did?
I mean it was cute… but also… Jon Stewart is going to commedian heaven!
But it was cute.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Listen to Medved, who takes one anti-Mitt/pro-Newt caller after another and dissects them like frogs. He’s also great at calm, fact-based analysis.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:42 pm
The map looks pretty good… I do think Romney will take the beach area of the pan handle, but other than that, it looks good.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Sojourner gone off the deep end.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:43 pm
23… oh sojourner do we really want to go through all the positions that Newt has taken since 1994? And all the scandals? And all the women… you know there is way more baggage on Newt than has come out so far… I’ve heard some things much worse. They went easy on him… but if he keeps it up… well he will be hard pressed to find one American that would support him.
If you had someone better than Mitt, you should have run them.
Mitt is the best this year by far.
Being disatisfied is pointless… all the others were far worse.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Sojourner, you make a great Newt supporter.
Light on facts, eavy on bloviating.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:44 pm
I liked Mitt singing America the Beautiful. He can carry a tune and knows the words by heart.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Sojourner Truth Says:
January 31st, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Mitt is the most despicable human being alive.
======================================
You are simply Crazy… this is a man who gave millions of dollars to charity. Your attack on Romney is beyond the pale. Why don’t you crawl back under the Rock you came from…
January 31st, 2012 at 2:44 pm
#23
And for whom would there be great enthusiasm? Quick! Name names. If you have this wonderful, awesome, fab candidate hiding in the closet or under the bed, bring them forth post haste. Inquiring minds want to know.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:45 pm
27 did you really just wish for the assasination of Mitt Romney?
Really? Murder? That is a Christian value now? Figures, it must make you more normal.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:45 pm
32. Heavy on bloviating.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:46 pm
34 – Why? This is more fun
January 31st, 2012 at 2:47 pm
36. Sojourn has a good point folks. Newt really is more electable.
LOL!
January 31st, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Seriously, that Ip address might should be sent to the FBI or something… it wasn’t a direct threat but it was a veiled threat.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:50 pm
39 – Threat? No threat here. I mean, if everyone who ever said, “I hope that guy gets hit by a bus” was investigated by the FBI, well where would we be then?
January 31st, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Sojourner Truth Says:
I mean there is hope out there. There are a lot of crazies. I have no idea what the future holds. But maybe he can get the Wilkes Booth treatment down there in Dixie.
=========================================
You know threatening a candidate is a federal offense… You better hope the Secret Service is not monitoring you.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:51 pm
41 – I hope they are. Where’s the threat?
Now if I said, “I’m coming over to your house to take a whiz on your lawn” then THAT would be a threat…
January 31st, 2012 at 2:52 pm
I have a very cold feeling.
I hope Mitt is wearing a vest.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Sojourner Truth Says:
January 31st, 2012 at 2:51 pm
41 – I hope they are. Where’s the threat?
Now if I said, “I’m coming over to your house to take a whiz on your lawn” then THAT would be a threat…
==========================================
People have gone to prison for less…. I just would be careful if I was you. The threat is implied.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:54 pm
“I’m sorry I got carried away.” That is the only thing I want to hear from you from here on out.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:54 pm
43 – Mitt doesn’t need to wear a vest. Mitt’s body produces rays of sunshine. Mitt’s very smile can turn any arrow around.
I don’t know what you’re worried about.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:54 pm
I’m gone
January 31st, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Enjoy your day, Rombots
January 31st, 2012 at 2:56 pm
That is a Romney landslide.
January 31st, 2012 at 2:59 pm
The Romney campaign is more worried about defeating Paul in NV than Newt in FL.
January 31st, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Well, at least he wasn’t screwing mistresses, maybe causing them to become pregnant and get an abortion.
Do we have proof that none of Newt’s lovers got an abortion?
His legislative pro-life acts or attempts to stop some pro-choice acts were overwritten by 85% Dem legislature.
Mass Care reduced abortions by 1.5%, teen abortions by 9.6%.
January 31st, 2012 at 3:03 pm
If Mitt can win big tonight and keep Newt down in Feb., there may be a call for Newt to knock it off and quit “ruining the GOP brand,” (which he’s spent his life doing.) In the meantime, Newt’s PAC has been running ads forever here in CA that Mitt wants abortions for teens w/o parental permission.
Medved is taking that despicably deceptive ad to pieces too.
It funny thing is CA continually votes for teen abortions w/o parental consent. Newt’s ad may help Mitt in CA.
January 31st, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Grinch is now denying any knowledge of the absolute lie of a robocall about forcing holocaust survivors to eat non-kosher meals. It was approved by him at the end. Grinch is going down in despicable flames.
Finish him, Mitt.
January 31st, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Ala Dick Morris Exit polls as of 4 EST>>
My updated exit polls show at 2 Pm EST
Mitt 46 Newt 29 Santorum 15 Paul 10
Tea Party Mitt 34 Newt 31 Santorum 25 Paul 10
Women Mitt 49 Newt 25 Sant 19 Paul 7
Be back at 4 Pm EST with updated
Mitt 45 Newt 28 Santorum 16 Paul 11
Women Mitt 47 Newt 25 Sant 22 Paul 6
Hispanics : Newt 37 Mitt 34 Sant 27 Paul 2
Folks the FINAL one done between 615 and 630 will be the MOST accurate this is based by actual voters
Please check back for any updates
January 31st, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Mittman,
Where are you finding those?
January 31st, 2012 at 3:18 pm
http://www.billspetrino.com/tag/florida-exit-polls-with-live-results/
January 31st, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Ah, man! I wanted 50%!
If Mitt wins by more than Grinch & Santorum together then it will be a great talking point.
Also, it might be a great window for the side line standers (Rubio, Bush, Demint, I’m looking at you) to get behind Mitt and stop the madness going on. They might wait, but decisive victories in 3 swing states (NH, FL, NV) is a big statement. Also, we have to train our guns on Obama.
January 31st, 2012 at 3:19 pm
54
Does that include absentee ballots, or no?
January 31st, 2012 at 3:21 pm
I do not know you can look at the link above. It didnt specify. If it is exit polling probably not which could drive up Mitts percentage to 50%
January 31st, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Huh. Well, those are fine topline numbers for Mitt, if true. Have to say though, I’ll be more than a little disappointed if Romney loses Hispanics. That would make a mess of my map and would also bode poorly for his chances of winning Hispanics in the general, given that practically the entire Cuban leadership backed him in Florida.
January 31st, 2012 at 3:23 pm
If those are the results, I’m only off by 5. Come on!! Yeehaw!!!
January 31st, 2012 at 3:25 pm
I actually don’t believe those numbers among hispanics. 27% Santorum? HUH?
NONE of the polls had Santorum anywhere NEAR 27% among hispanics. More like 10-15.
January 31st, 2012 at 3:25 pm
54. Where are these exit polls taken from?
January 31st, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Beware exit polls.
Working straight through to the last minutue.
Give em hell Mitt!
January 31st, 2012 at 3:28 pm
I have a feeling those exit polls are just nonsense. Bad exit polls leaking much too early is pretty common.
January 31st, 2012 at 3:29 pm
I’d be very happy with those “exit poll” numbers, but the post with the 2:00 results was posted at 12:30…
January 31st, 2012 at 3:31 pm
Sojourner,
There are people watching the board, I’d be careful about what you say. Yes, they are not direct threats but what your saying will put you on their radar.
Sojourner says: “But maybe he can get the Wilkes Booth treatment down there in Dixie.”
Not a direct threat? hhhmmmm, maybe not but be careful, your walking a very, very thin line. At the very least you could be opening yourself to an investigation for the comments you have made on this board. Anyone could copy this thread link and forward it to the proper authorities. I wonder if anyone has already done so….hhhhmmmm.
I’m surprised your allowed to post here, a lot of your comments get deleted by the site monitor.
January 31st, 2012 at 3:44 pm
http://www.billspetrino.com/tag/florida-exit-polls-with-live-results/
I don’t know how valid or not they are.
But don’t look that far off what I would expect.
Read with caution.
January 31st, 2012 at 3:56 pm
To the moderators: If you delete a comment, please mark it “DELETED” instead of just taking it away so you don’t change the numbering. Lots of the numbered references don’t make any sense any more because the comment numbers have changed.
January 31st, 2012 at 3:56 pm
66 2 O’clock EST = 12 MST
January 31st, 2012 at 3:59 pm
“Mass Care reduced abortions by 1.5%, teen abortions by 9.6%.”
On top of that, the national average has seen an INCREASE in abortion percentage so it’s not like Mass is following a national trend.
January 31st, 2012 at 4:30 pm
SoJo @ Race42012 = Michael Jackson @ elementary school.
January 31st, 2012 at 5:02 pm
too many Gingrich counties. I only have 2 in eastern time zone
January 31st, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Poor Sojo/Satan. You might need therapy after today.
February 7th, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Florida Map Guess | Race 4 2012 – just great!