Gallup has released their daily tracking results for 1/30. The graphical results from their website are as follows:
Newt Gingrich pushes after his record setting 4 point drop yesterday. He remains at 28% nationwide.
Mitt Romney climbs up another point to 27%. That is good enough for second place. He trails Gingrich among national voters by a single point.
Rick Santorum improves his third place by a point. He now sits at 16% — 11 points behind Romney and 12 points behind Gingrich.
Ron Paul drops back to 13%. He is now a full four points behind Santorum and is in last place nationally.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:16 pm
I am on record as predicting Romney would pass Gingrich on today’s poll. I was off by a couple percent. At least the trends are moving in the right direction.
Remember – tracking polls are lagging indicators, largely measuring how a race was in days past. For instance, this Gallup poll is a 5-day tracking poll. This means that 20% of the sample taken represents how the race looked yesterday. 20% of the sample still represents how the race looked last Wednesday, as Romney was regaining his momentum.
I will amend my past prediction that Romney would be ahead today to this: Romney will be ahead on tomorrow’s survey.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:18 pm
I already predicted romney will when the nomination over newt…newt’s biggest threat to romney is he will bolt to the american elect 3rd party and run in the fall. The media of DC would love newt forever for such a move but i’m not sure AE would want him, maybe.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:18 pm
He’ll have a strong lead again by the end of the week (Romney.) If this is an average, it’s just dropping some of the Dec. polls that still put Newtron in the lead.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
MITT-mentum………………………………..baby!!!!!
January 30th, 2012 at 12:26 pm
I rather suspect Mitt will take over the lead tomorrow. That last big 3 pt drop of his was five days ago. Tomorrow it will roll off. Unless things really go sour for him, expect Mitt to go up at least two points tomorrow.
One thing for certain, though. With a massive come-from-behind smackdown of Newt in Florida, prepare for Mitt’s numbers to be back in the thirties nationally by week’s end.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Look for Romney’s black line to spike upwards after tomorrow. What’s happening is that Gingrich won big in SC and shortly thereafter took over the lead in the national polls. Now he’s losing it because people who don’t follow politics much are beginning to think Mitt will win Florida. After he does, he will take over the lead.
The black line will go higher after each state Mitt wins, which will be all of them.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Good poll numbers for Santorum. He should jump past Gingrich once Newt is humiliated tomorrow.
Newt,
You are now a national joke. “Family values is when you use the daughters from your first wife to prove that your second wife is lying about your third wife.”
January 30th, 2012 at 12:51 pm
Mitt is the man! Momentum is in full swing and the voters will swing it more after the big win in FL tomorrow! Very exciting!
January 30th, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Give us one more day down here to finish the job.
Give em hell Mitt!
January 30th, 2012 at 1:03 pm
[Deleted for offensive language. -MC]
January 30th, 2012 at 1:05 pm
I would dearly love to see Santorum take over second place. I could easily vote for him if he were the nominee. I would be disappointed that the best person didn’t get the nomination, but my conscience would be clear pulling the lever for Ricky.
Gingrich, on the other hand, would require a whole lot more soul-searching. The thought of another thin-skinned crybaby narcissist in the Oval Office makes my skin crawl. Surely we can do better.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Actually, SoJo, the latest Gallup poll shows Mitt as the only Republican who leads Obama in the swing states, though just barely. Newt, on the other hand, is nearly 15 points behind Barack.
In fact, Paul does better than Gingrich both nationally, and in the swing states.
Question: Mitt hardly ever whines. He does it so seldom that it is big news when he does. So why would you think that he would “…bawl hysterically in November…” if he lost this November?
January 30th, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Adam,
You haven’t seen the last poll. Mitt’s at 49 and Obama’s at 48.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:13 pm
10 – The panzy ass was Gingrich when Romney looked him in the face and told him what he thought of him. You’re the candy ass who doesn’t have the balls to get over being a bigot. You’re a scared little person just like too many in this party who follow people who hide behind the radio talking and talking and doing nothing. Every conservative who thinks they owe Newt something should take their candy asses home if that’s what they want to do. Make him a party for you. Right now there is a sifting and weeding of this Republican party of true conservatives to finally get things DONE. No more TALK and no more sitting and cowering behind a radio show waiting for talking points. Finally somebody who has the balls to tell people what he thinks and not back down. Romney is that person, get on board or go make a NEWT conservative party with all of your socon tea parties, take your radio with you, and take your hypocrites with you as well starting with Palin.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:14 pm
10 – Oh and if you want to feel soothed go listen to Rush. He’ll give you all the soothing you need right now. Your Gingrich attack dog is doing his best right now to help you. The king of hypocrisy and contradiction.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:18 pm
Was that when Mitt was a self-admitted “progressive” or when he fancied himself a three-legged stool conservative?
I’m not getting onboard. Lots of conservatives Won’t be getting on board. If Trump runs I’ll vote for Trump. Anything to deny Mitt and teach the establishment a valuable lesson.
As far as my politics go, nothing will make me happier than to see Mitt fail. I like the odds having that happen. Especially with the economy rebounding, with Obama’s numbers improving and with the Democrats looking to be able to run against a 1%er.
Class warfare is my friend. Anything that knocks down Mitt to teach the GOP that the folks actually matter and that the country clubbers with the swiss bank accounts aren’t enough to drag the good-ol’ boy candidate across the finish line anymore now that the country is getting more and more diverse. It’s a beautiful thing.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
What Romney should do to end this bullsh** talk about Mass healthcare is come out and say that he will not only repeal Obamacare, he will also repeal the Reagan federal mandate of ER’s to provide care to anyone regardless of insurance. He should also require that if illegals go to the hospital they need to be reported. That it’s unconstitutional and that he will put it back on the states to craft their plans accordingly and he will abide by the rules on illegal immigration once and for all. Game. Set. Match. Healthcare over. Illegal immigration done. You want scorched earth you got it. This will weed out the mealy mouthed conservatives won’t it?
January 30th, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Mitt is winning the purple states, Sojourner. Obama has plenty of room under his tent for you. You sound much more like one of his followers than you do a republican. It sounds to me like you prefer that Obama win rather than a republican Mormon. I think there is a word for that (starts with a “B”). Maybe you can form a new party called the Pharisees. You are qualified to be its leader.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Didn’t Norm Coleman just say he wouldn’t do that?
Maybe Norm Coleman doesn’t think that Mitt has the “balls.”
I LOVE scorched earth. All scorched earth does is hurt Mitt. All it does is drag Mitt’s unfavorables higher and higher to make him unacceptable in November. The process has already started.
I can’t wait for an inadequate black man to beat the pants off of an establishment golden boy whose only claim to the nomination is being able to outspend his nearest competitior five to one and a grudge match to avenge his dim-witted father.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Yeah, Sojourner totally sounds pharisaical in recent posts.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:28 pm
16 – You’re not a conservative. Conservatives don’t hate successful people for what they have. They work harder to become like them. You’re just a Mormon hating little person stuck in the 60′s. Like I said there’s help for you on the radio. Turn it on and you’ll be happy. Go watch Gingrich with Reagan’s son whining about Romney. That should do it for you.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
How is Mitt doing in Colorado?
Public Policy Polling O +8
How about Virginia?
2012-01-18 Mason-Dixon O +1
2011-12-19 Quinnipiac University O +5
2011-12-13 Public Policy Polling O +7
Iowa?
2011-11-29 Marist College O +10
2011-10-11 Marist College O +3
2011-10-10 Public Policy Polling O +6
New Mexico?
2011-12-12 Public Policy Polling O +17
2011-06-26 Public Policy Polling O +7
Ohio?
2012-01-16 Quinnipiac University O +2
There’s some awesome “electability” right there.
I can’t wait to see it play out.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:32 pm
20 – I feel sorry for people who like Gingrich believes that they’re victims. Conservatives don’t play victim to anybody…period. If you wanna play the conservative victim card there is plenty of room to be a Gingrich conservative. I don’t feel sorry for that man and anyone that does is no better than a liberal giving people who don’t deserve it the benefit of the doubt. Gingrich has proven himself and a small man and continues to do so. Anyone who falls for his spiel is no different.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:33 pm
Romney has vowed to be a public servant for free, just as he did as governor and when he saved the Olympcis. The guy is as pure as the driven snow. It is funny to see the modern-day pharisees, like Sojourner, push for a guy who has committed the ultimate sins against God many times over and continues to lie in public (Hey, Newt never did provide witnesses that he didn’t ask for an open marriage) and behave in a scandalous manner. To thse people, personal values mean little. What is also funny is how Gingrich is on record as saying that he left his evangelical church because he found the religion to be too radical and could not indentify with it. Yet, he has chnaged his tune recedntly and attended an evangelcial church just yesterday in Flirida, but he still claims to be an aredent Catholic.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:34 pm
[Take your offensive language and religious bigotry somewhere else, kid.]
January 30th, 2012 at 1:34 pm
23. Why all of the 2011 polls?
January 30th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Romney just needs Florida, New Hampshire and Virginia
January 30th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
SoJo most of these are old polls, and no one expects a 50 state blow out.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:39 pm
20 – If you live your life accordingly good things happen, that is a fact. When you do shady sh** it comes back to bite you in the ass. That is what is happening to Gingrich to which I say go eat sh**. The man has lied continually and continues to try and play the victim which is what Palin and Rush hope for. Conservatism is not about victimhood. Conservatives do not have to play victim if they’re doing what they need to privately and publicly. There is nothing to fear of your success or failures if all you did was work hard and try. Gingrich hasn’t worked hard at anything except talking his way out of working hard in Washington DC. Too bad he was the leader when the leader when WE took back the House otherwise we would be in a different place. His hypocrisy did more damage that what he did to lead back in ’94. That is a fact. His money maker is his mouth and he needs to be taken to task for the crap he has said.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:40 pm
What I love to see is that most of these polls have Romney getting more evangelical support than Newt. It is refreshing to see the evangelicals in Florida flock to Mitt with newt as the alternative. Mitt’s lifestyle conforms to theirs so much more than does Newt’s.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Newt still says he had to cheat on his wives and leave them when they got sick because he was too patriotic.
31. You do know that Mitt has talked several pregnant teens out of abortion over the years, right?
January 30th, 2012 at 1:43 pm
[It is with no shortage of joy that I delete your remaining comments on this page. -MC]
January 30th, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Note to the conservative media. WE DON’T OWE NEWT GINGRICH A THING.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:46 pm
New video out in FL Stand With Mitt http://mittromney.com/blogs/mitts-view/2012/01/romney-president-releases-new-web-video-“tomorrow-stand-mitt”
January 30th, 2012 at 1:47 pm
SO JO Hate is not a pretty color.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:48 pm
SO JO has 12 posts this thread >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
January 30th, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Watching Newt so people who get queasy don’t have to. What a douche!!! He’s saying it’s 35 to 35. WOW!!!
January 30th, 2012 at 2:07 pm
I hear this argument from SoJo and Newt himself. Can someone please tell me why it is so bad and so wrong that Romney has more resources for these states and why it’s morally wrong that he outspends his opponents?
Don’t we want a candidate that can raise the necessary money to defeat Obama? Instead of someone like Newt or Santorum who basically raised pennies all year for a handful of supporters.
Newt was on a cruise in Greece while Romney was holding fundraisers. And now Newt (and SoJo) get pissed that Romney has more cash to use for ads and organization than his opponents.
Lame!!!
January 30th, 2012 at 2:09 pm
42
It’s actually been time for you to GTFO for quite a while now, but either way is fine with us
January 30th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
And Romney fans… I support the guy too but there is no way that this thing is over after Florida. Or Nevada and Maine either.
I predict that Newt will make a run at Minnesota or Arizona, and will certainly win a handful of states in March. He will win enough states and pick up delegates in those states he loses that will allow him to fight on into April and May.
Perhaps Newt can win Arizona or Minnesota (probably not though)
Perhaps he wins Oklahoma, Tennessee, Georgia, Alaska, and maybe Ohio on Super Tuesday (not impossible given the Palin, Rush, Levin support he continues to get)
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win Alabama, Mississippi, Kansas, and Louisiana in March as well.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Does this poll allow the audience to clap?
January 30th, 2012 at 2:15 pm
42 You can’t “peace out” after acting like jerk. It’s more like you were on race42012.com, then you….
January 30th, 2012 at 2:16 pm
43 – That is why they’re ineffective. Their arguments don’t hold water because they can’t withstand the contradictions. Rush gets mad that Gingrich gets his a** handed to him and then turns around and goes off on Romney. He also loves success apparently but when it’s Romney it’s the “establishment” giving it to him and not giving him the credit for his success. They’re all talkers – not doers. People of America love success more than handouts. Gingrich represents the people of Washington who lead by giving handouts. It’s time to be done with that. Hannity now repeating Sarah Palin. These people want to be victims. Conservatives are not victims. If you feel you’re a victim, liberals and the MSM is listening. By the way, WE DON’T OWE NEWT GINGRICH SH** please share that with your conservative friends.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Florida ought to clarify things. I’m thinking some of the posters on this site are crossing the line. I’d like to see some clean up.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:18 pm
If Mitt is ahead in the 12 Swing states, all carried by Obama last time, it means we get a lot of them back. Give us a full campaign, and we’ll get them ALL back.
By the time Gingrich is out of the race, the electorate should be inoculated from just about anybody can say, or make up, about Romney. What charges or pseudocharges are left?
January 30th, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Hannity is a p**ssy listen to him. What’s he going to do if it’s Obama? Please don’t hurt us Mr. President. Dude own up to it and stop with the victimization crap.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Wasn’t it Hannity that wanted all the candidates to be vetted? Now he’s “concerned”? Where was this concern when everyone was jumping down Romney’s throat within the party? Where is Hannity now? He’s a big contradiction. It’s Romney’s fault in his mind but he doesn’t realize that this is child’s play and a preparation for the big game. Gingrich looked good in uniform but plays like a wuss. And you wonder why Republicans don’t have the backbone to go up against Obama. If Romney didn’t go after Newt in the debate for what he’s done then what? These radio talkers do not have the guts whatsoever to take it to Obama. They say they don’t think Romney can do it. Well what have they done except try and goad politicians to do it? Calling them cowards. Who are the cowards now circling the wagons? They’re circling the wagons for a flawed man saying please be careful. Now it’s time for an outsider to do it.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:29 pm
51
Funny how Hannity only starts whining now. Where was he two weeks ago when Newt was hammering Mitt on CAPITALISM!!!??? It’s also interesting that he can only whine about the attacks, yet he never defends them or brings up the actual charges.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Hannity for the past year, “Let’s let this process play out, I want ALL of these candidates fully vetted so we can pick the best choice.”
Hannity today, “HOLD IT! STOP! That’s too much!”
January 30th, 2012 at 2:34 pm
45
It’s not an unrealistic scenario, but at that point Romney will just be slowly increasing his lead, versus blow Newt out of the water. And the farther behind Newt gets, the worse his rhetoric will become.
In that scenario, I predict the remaining states will get sick of him, and we’ll see a backlash to get him out of the race.
Then there’s that whole “ineligible for 564 delegates” anyway. This talk of him taking it to the convention is ridiculous. He simply does not have the support.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
54 – But as you say – what’s too much? Does he also thing Obama’s going to let up? If you can’t get behind Romney because your loyalties to Newt are too strong then to hell with you is what I say. Conservatives DO NOT OWE NEWT GINGRICH ONE THING. Gingrich owes his followers for not giving up on him although they should give up. He’s a nobody of substance. A has-been failure historian. That’s all he is.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:37 pm
56 – Oh let’s not forget he’s a career politician whose policies have done nothing to make our countries any better since he left office.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Sorry 53 – Oh let’s not forget he (Gingrich) is a career politician whose policies have done nothing to make our country any better since he left office. Typing in anger at this victimhood crap.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Sorry for the comment numbering getting off… just trying to clean up the mess that Sojo left behind.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Sojourner, please go to the Gateway Pundant blog. It’s owner and most of the posters are drinking Newt koolaid. You will be in the right company although most are not as raw in their comments as you like to be.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:43 pm
If the question is whether Newt will carry on, the person to ask would probably be Sheldon Adelson, the casino billionaire that has far and away been the bulk of Newt’s fundraising. Newt’s entire campaign has basically fueled by a single donor.
My guess is, Sheldon will say “enough” after Florida and Newt will be broke. But even if Sheldon kicks in another $5 million, my guess is a $100 million comes through Mitt’s door after Florida as any SANE observer will realize we’ve picked our nominee and it’s time to move on. Good luck Newt getting anyone else to throw in for your campaign.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:44 pm
ANY IDIOT calling for a protracted primary at this point needs to be locked away in a padded room.
Noot is RUINING the party. The more he’s on TV, the more he’s in the papers, the MORE this party gets destroyed. His rhetoric is TOXIC.
He needs to be silenced, by almost any means possible, as quickly as possible.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Sorry to hear that Sojo. Hopefully Romney can pick up enough disaffected Democrats to offset the disaffected Republicans.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Don’t national polls usually take a couple of weeks to catch up to what is really taking place on the ground? Romney obliterating in Florida. What a sweet thing.
January 30th, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Rush, Hannity, Palin, etc. making themselves obsolete. It’s their own doing and it’s about time.
January 30th, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Hah! Now this new Newt attack ad takes the cake!
http://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeedpolitics/newts-new-florida-attack-romney-vetoed-koshe
Newt attacking Romney because he cut the size of Government in Mass! Love it!
January 30th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
61
He’s trying to depress the Jewish Vote in Florida.
Talk about DESPERATE! LOL!
January 30th, 2012 at 3:06 pm
59
These 5-day trackers are lagging indicators, not leading indicators. This poll basically reflects what it looked like nationally since Wednesday until yesterday.
After tomorrow, expect Mitt to soar nationally.
January 30th, 2012 at 3:15 pm
#57 Comment of the Day!
January 30th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
BREAKING NEWS!!!!! – Sojo hates Mitt. (end story) I know it wasn’t a big shocker for all of you. Just kind of blind sided me with it today.
January 30th, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Oh, I don’t mind a protracted primary season so much. It gives Mitt a greater chance to squash Newt like a bug.
If there is any justice in the world, Rick Santorum will rise to take Newt’s place, but I doubt it. There is only so many reasonable Republicans out there, and Mitt and Rick are splitting them with the lion’s share going to Mitt. Newt seems to have the angry, unthinking Republicans to himself. So when Newt goes down, I doubt Rick will go up.
January 30th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
I was driving home this afternoon and a radio announcer, who had been in Florida on vacation, says “Newt is Nuts.” And that will be the battle cry if by some miracle, Newt would win the Primary. I do hope Mitt obliterates Newt tomorrow.
January 30th, 2012 at 3:52 pm
SOJO Just Admitted his second choice is Obama. Democrats like him are spreading wide in our Party. Its like a freaken disease. They will all get weeded out soon they will be on the pro Obama sites. No way a real conservative would not vote against Obama NO WAY.
This person is likely home on walfare and wants one of the democrats to win Gingrich or Obama. They hate the rich and successful .
January 30th, 2012 at 4:34 pm
68. Cry baby. How many of you so called republicans proclaimed you would vote for Obama over Newt? Most of you it seemed like.
This party may get burned to the ground. Maybe it’s past due.
January 30th, 2012 at 4:36 pm
69
Noot is a disaster candidate, and he needs to be destroyed.
Why don’t you go with Santorum or something? AT LEAST not Noot.
January 30th, 2012 at 4:46 pm
68.
Obama is his first choice. A Gingrich nominee is an Obama victory.
January 30th, 2012 at 4:48 pm
#67
Of course Newt is nuts. It’s the whole point. Some of us have been screaming this to the high heavens for months. The fact that everybody doesn’t realize this already is very depressing. I guess be late than never.
January 30th, 2012 at 4:53 pm
69 That is because some of us still have standards for what is good and decent and your preferred candidate falls incredibly short in that department.
I didn’t ask adulterer Newt to run for President and embarrass the party. I didn’t ask Herman Cain to not know what was happening in Libya and I certainly didnt force Herman Cain to stick his hand up some poor girl’s skirt. I didn’t ask Rick Perry to look like a retard in every debate. I didn’t ask Rick Santorum, last seen losing in a landslide as an incumbent senator, act like he is God’s gift to conservatism. I didn’t ask Michelle Bachmann to run knowing she had no accomplishments she could use to help her win the nomination. Finally, I didn’t ask Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin to love the almighty dollar more than they loved sticking up for conservatism. So now that Mitt is about to take Florida in a landslide, the ABRs are acting put out? Didn’t we predict this would happen six, eight months ago? That when you put 8 dwarfs up against seasoned veteran Mitt Romney, none of these guys had a shot? We did tell you that. So get over it.
January 30th, 2012 at 4:55 pm
This So called Republican has never voted dem ever in 30 years of voting.
January 30th, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Mitt Live!
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/cvplive/cvpstream4
I’m only getting audio from this though…
January 30th, 2012 at 6:53 pm
I am not sure Romney can beat Obama. What I am sure of is that santorum and gingrich cannot. especially gingrich.