January 30, 2012

Intrade State of the Race: Sunrise, Sunset Edition

If it’s Monday, it must be time for an Intrade update!

As we approach the Sunshine State vote, the sun is about to set on the Gingrich campaign — at least that’s how the investors are seeing things about twenty hours prior to the polls opening. Romney has regained everything he lost after the South Carolina wake-up call, and Gingrich has lost everything he gained. At this point, looking just at the Intrade boards, it’s as if South Carolina never even happened. No wonder Newt is getting so desperate and testy out on the campaign trail.

Movement listed below is from one week ago (the Monday after South Carolina).

Name Value Change
Romney 88.5 +25.5
Gingrich 5.0 -24.0
Paul 3.3 +0.1
Santorum 1.1 E
Perry
Huntsman
Bachmann
Johnson
Cain
McCotter
Pawlenty

Here are the (lightly traded) early state primaries, with the numbers from last week in parentheses:

Florida

  • Romney – 95.6 (41.7)
  • Gingrich – 5.6 (58.9)
  • Santorum – 0.1 (0.4)

Nevada

  • Romney – 94.3 (72.1)
  • Gingrich – 4.0 (20.8)
  • Paul – 1.7 (6.7)
by @ 11:53 am. Filed under 2012 Misc.
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13 Responses to “Intrade State of the Race: Sunrise, Sunset Edition”

  1. Matt "MWS" Says:

    I love Fiddler On The Roof.

    One of the greatest musicals of all time.

  2. CF Says:

    Gingrich just needs to drop out after tomorrow. He’s destroying not only his own image, but the image of many others who have been able to usurp the country under the fraud of being part of the Tea Party. Palin, Cain, and others supporting him are showing their true colors – they’re simply in it for attention and money. It was never about helping America for them. Each day Newt stays in this race, the more obvious this becomes.

    Newt, quit now while the rest of your (3) followers still have a shred of dignity.

  3. CF Says:

    Intrade Update: Mitt to win… (in order of Primary/Caucus date)
    FL = 95.6
    NV = 94.3
    CO = 85.0
    MN = 78.0
    ME = 80.0
    AZ = 91.2
    MI = 88.8
    WA = 85.0
    Notables: In WA: RPaul = 10, Newt = 8.6, Rick = 4.9
    Notables: In MN: Newt = 19.9
    Notables: In ME: RPaul = 25.0

    It’s going to be a LOOOOOOONNNNGGGG February for Noot.

    I just can’t stop smiling! ;)

  4. Gunlock Bill Says:

    ABRtards hardest hit.

  5. Gordon Says:

    Metro…I think the thread of the quinnipac poll is dead…here’s alink about Mitt’s spending plans… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vaVWUgqcrk&feature=related

    It’s a goody!

  6. Ozzy Says:

    2,

    Palin managed to get her facebook followers into an internet prayer for Bella Santorum and the whole Santorum family yesterday. As long as she can do things like, she’ll remain a classy lady to me, even if her 2012 politics suck. It would make more sense if she endorses Santorum and not Gingrich.

  7. Dave Says:

    It beats CDs and Money Markets.

  8. Ryan60657 Says:

    2. No way that Newt drops out this week. His ego won’t allow it until at least Super Tuesday — He will continue to think he has a reasonable chance of winning the southern Super Tues states: GA, OK, TN, VA oops.

  9. CF Says:

    5

    After watching that, NOBODY can tell me Romney doesn’t have a detailed plan on how to cut Government.

  10. Gordon Says:

    CF…it’s definitely one of my favorites from this year.

  11. rightgal Says:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/01/on-sarah-palins-facebook-page-a-revolt-against-newt-gingrich/252176/#.TybZypONsB5.twitter

    Lady Blah Blah speaks!

  12. Jman Says:

    Mitt is the man! This is looking great for Romney.

  13. Jay Says:

    Biggest mystery to me of this election is the Tea Party and Family Values Voters voting for Newt over Santorum. They sacrificed their principles for political expediency and have lost much credibility in my book. In this crowd are Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, Herman Cain, Michael Reagan and Laura Ingraham. Wouldn’t you rather stand on principle and lose than sacrifice your principle and lose anyway.

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