I just returned from almost two weeks in Florida where the next primary will be held in the contest for the Republican nomination for president. In the rapid up-and-down performance of the leading GOP candidates, Mitt Romney seems to have pulled ahead to a comfortable lead over his major remaining challenger, Newt Gingrich, in the opinion polls just prior to the voting on January 31.
Only a month ago, such a prospect was viewed as the likely final electoral episode of the 2012 GOP nominating campaign. After winning Iowa and New Hampshire, and leading in South Carolina, it was then thought that Mitt Romney would be the presumptive nominee of his party.
What happened subsequently, however, has shaken this presumption.First, Rick Santorum, following a recount of the Iowa caucus ballots, was declared the winner in Iowa. Perhaps this has little substantive meaning, but in the words of Mr. Romney, “A win is a win.” Second, Newt Gingrich, following stunning debate performances in South Carolina, came from behind to win the state’s primary by 13 points. Third, Mr. Romney, who had been rarely attacked by his rival previously, became a target on issues of his work as CEO at Bain Capital, and for his failure to make public his tax returns.
Now, with South Carolina in the past, Mr. Romney has provided his most recent tax returns, defended his record at Bain Capital while accusing his attackers of betraying conservative principles, and counterattacked Mr. Gingrich again (as he did in Iowa) with tough ads and comments. Whereas Mr. Romney has seemed on the defensive in South Carolina, it is Mr. Gingrich who seems to be spending too much time defending himself in Florida.
And so it goes. First Romney, then a succession of poll “bubbles” for Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Gingrich and even Rick Santorum. Then Romney again. Then Gingrich again. And now Romney again. Is there any reason to think this is the end of the contest?
While four straight wins for Romney might have overwhelmed the field and made his nomination inevitable, the present “standings” do not indicate inevitability. The winner of Florida wins all 50 delegates, but Florida, one of the largest states, originally had 100 delegates before it was penalized for scheduling its primary so early. Mr. Romney will also win all of Virginia’s 40 delegates because most of his opponents, including Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Santorum failed to qualify for the Virginia primary ballot. But more than 40 state primaries and caucuses remain, and most of the national delegates have not been chosen. “Super Tuesday” is about a month away, and many of its primaries are Southern states where Mr. Gingrich might yet do well (as he did in South Carolina). A campaign calendar with a contest not dissimilar to Barack Obama vs. Hillary Clinton in 2008 is quite possible.
Why is this so? It is so because the the 2012 contest for the GOP presidential nomination has become a contest between the basic factions of the Republican Party. Mr. Romney, it has become obvious, is the candidate not only of the Republican “establishment.” but of the more moderate wing of the conservative base of the party. Not all of these were necessarily his supporters at the beginning of the contest. Mr. Gingrich has become the candidate of most of the grass roots conservative wing of the party, including many in the powerful “Tea Party” movement. Not all of these were necessarily his supporters at the campaign outset, but with the other major conservative candidates withdrawing, he has received most of their support. Mr. Santorum, who is now a distant third in the race, continues to receive a large share of the religious and social conservative vote, but it remains to be seen how long he can stay in the race without sufficient funds and organization. Ron Paul, the only other remaining candidate, is in fourth place, and seems to be stuck at a popular vote that is under ten percent. He occasionally does better than that, especially in caucus states, but he has no reasonable chance to win the nomination.
So it will be two-person race, with two other and trailing candidates, from now until June. One of the two leaders is likely to clinch the nomination by then, as Mr. Obama barely did over Mrs. Clinton in 2008. but the Florida results, even if Mr. Romney wins by double digits. are not likely going to resolve the GOP nomination.
High profile Republicans associated with grass roots conservative and “Tea Party” voter sympathies, including Fred Thompson, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, and perhaps most significantly, Sarah Palin, have endorsed Mr. Gingrich. Leading conservative voices such as Sean Hannity and recently, Rush Limbaugh, have defended him. Each of them have reinforced the notion that Mr. Gingrich is being unfairly attacked by the
“Republican establishment.” The “Tea Party” supporters played a significant role in the landslide victories of Republicans in the 2010 midterm elections. In order to win in 2012, Republicans need these grass roots voters and activists to be enthusiastic not only for their presidential candidate, but for their congressional candidates as well.
Mr. Romney remains the favorite to win the nomination. Republicans are still favored to keep control of the U.S. house of representatives and win control of the U.S. senate. The economy, seemingly enjoying a short-term upswing, remains problematic, especially its chronic unemployment. World economic and political conditions remain perilous. Yet none of this leads automatically to Republican victory in November. Mr. Romney needs to gain the trust, as well as the enthusiasm, of his party base and of more independent voters if he is to prevail.
Newt Gingrich may have more political lives than the proverbial cat. His challenge in 2012 touches the heart of the conservative impulse in American politics, and in the desire, across party lines. for dramatic change in the way government does business.
The true secret in modern American presidential politics is the story a candidate tells voters. That story includes his or her past, but it vitally also tells his or her story of the future. Part of the reason Mr Gingrich keeps coming back, with all of his personal “baggage” and controversies, is not just that he is the best debater. It is also because he is, as was Mr. Obama in 2008, a superb storyteller.
The Romney campaign, and its candidate, has to learn to tell a better story if they want the keys to that certain residence on Pennsylvania Avenue next January.
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-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site.
January 30th, 2012 at 9:04 am
Ugghhh … Santorum was not declared the winner of Iowa.
January 30th, 2012 at 9:25 am
While Santorum technically won Iowa, he didn’t receive any of the benefit while Mitt did.
The one problem I see with your argument is that the calendar doesn’t treat Gingrich well. First, consider there isn’t another debate until the end of February. Gingrich is ONLY where he is at because of debates. This will hurt him. Second look at the states between now and super tuesday:
- Feb 4: Nevada – Romney
- Feb 7: Colorado – Romney, Minnesota – likely Romney, Missouri – Toss-up
- Feb 28: Arizona – Romney, Michigan – Romney
- Mar 3: Washington – Romney.
The only two that Gingrich even has a remote chance in is Minnesota and Missouri, and I would be very surprised if he won Minnesota. So Gingrich needs to rest his February hopes on Missouri. But could one win among seven be enough to propel him further?
Then comes super Tuesday and things look a little better, but not great, especially if you consider the big mo that Mitt will have:
Alaska (caucus) – Likely Mitt, but who knows how the Palin factor plays in
Georgia (primary) – Newt
Idaho (caucus) – Mitt
Massachusetts (primary)- Mitt
North Dakota (caucus) – Mitt
Ohio (primary) – Mitt
Oklahoma (primary)- Toss up
Tennessee (primary) – Lean Newt(?)
Vermont (primary) – Mitt
Virginia (primary) – Mitt
So you’ve got four states max, and I would argue really at best two states, that Newt will won on super tuesday. If this is how it plays out. Mitt is our nominee guaranteed. This is why Florida is so important. Mitt will have the momentum coming out and then a with a few more wins at his back will be nearly unstoppable.
January 30th, 2012 at 9:27 am
2…..Gingrich isn’t even on the ballot in Missouri.
January 30th, 2012 at 9:35 am
One additional thing to take into consideration is money. Mitt had a big financial advantage over Newt as of the last time financial reports came out, which was as of September 30 — he had over $14 million cash on hand at the time and Newt had less than $400,000. The financial reports for year-end 2011 are due tomorrow, and while Newt no doubt had a much better 4th quarter of 2011 than any of his prior quarters, he would have had a hard time making up the fundraising gap. Even if Newt outraised Mitt in the 4th quarter, it’s unlikely that he would have caught up with him in terms of cash on hand.
After tomorrow, I believe that we’ll start seeing financial reports coming out on the 15th of every month (representing the status as of the end of the previous month), so we’ll have a better idea of the financial situation of each campaign.
January 30th, 2012 at 9:57 am
The only thing that has kept this primary so volatile is the debates. Period.
Which is why I think if Romney is smart, he’ll stop showing up at debates after tomorrow and start focusing on Obama instead of Newt.
Romney has proven to be the best debater and thoroughly cleaned Newt’s clock in the last 2. There has been close to 20 debates, I think GOP voters have enough information to make up their minds. From here on out, it will be cheap stunts by you know who.
I see Romney going to over 40% nationally after a big Florida win, and if there’s even a sliver of hope left from the NotRomney coalition it will quickly be dashed as he wins the next 8 contests.
January 30th, 2012 at 9:59 am
well well another attempt to sweep paul under the rug…i truly doubt you are even remotely correct with your 10% popular vote assertion…i hope you’re still smug with your confidence another month or two from now….and soon i hope you will be working at wal-mart…maybe changing my oil
January 30th, 2012 at 10:24 am
Romney can go f*ck himself for his tactics and his 5 to 1 spending and pretending implicityly or not that somehow HE is more Reaganesque than Gingrich.
Romney can die of gonnorhea and he can take the Mormom church and Rove and all the establishment of the GOP along with him.
Romney might win the nomination by old money but he’s never going to be president because he is never going to get the enthusiastic backing of the base and Indepdendents are going to flee in droves when Axelrod reminds everyone how Romney was only too happy to proseletyze for a church that for too long accepted polygamay but thought blacks should be second class citizens around the time Reagan was running for his first primary in the GOP.
I can’t wait until Romney, the old money, the entire GOP establishment gets its comeuppance.
January 30th, 2012 at 10:26 am
And bitch and moan about me having sour grapes or whatever. I may be just one person, but there are tens of thousands like me that feel exactly the same way about the Mormon holier than thou piece of excrement in Ohio and Virginia. We’ve all voted GOP for decades, and we’re not going to this time.
January 30th, 2012 at 10:30 am
7,8
LOL. I love this!
How goes the campaign for Satan, Sojo?
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Sojourner Truth – October 5th, 2011
I’d vote for Satan himself over Romney.
He’s a liar and a panderer and the Republicans deserve to lose if he gets the nomination.
http://race42012.com/2011/10/05/erickson-invites-the-candidates/#comment-950794
January 30th, 2012 at 10:32 am
7. So why do you think that Gingrich is not “establishment”. You don’t get more establishment than him and yet “true conservatives” and “Tea Partiers” are rallying around him. Are they blind, dumb, and stupid? Also, is anyone who supports Romney establishment? There have been tons of non establishment types – Nikki Haley, etc – who support Mitt. Do they all the sudden lose credibility as a one of the conservatives or tea partiers when they support Newt?
The fact is Mitt gets support from all facets of the GOP, well except the irrationals.
Also, why are Mitt’s tactics any worse than Newt’s? Newt went scorched earth on Mitt in South Carolinia, just like Mitt is doing now in Florida on Newt. You will hold Mitt’s feet to the fire on this, but not Newt’s?
“about the Mormon holier than thou piece of excrement in Ohio and Virginia.” I don’t get this sentence, what are you talking about? What is the tie in with OH and VA with Mormons?
January 30th, 2012 at 10:37 am
When freakin’ Elliot Abrahams, NRO get caught lying and distorting the fix is pretty much in. Couple that with Drudge and Dole and we can see that the fix is in.
Mark Levin has it right. Gingrich has done far more for conservatism than Mitt ever has.
And then Romney smiling and criticizing NEWT for only having a single mention in Reagan’s book while Mitt was nowhere to be found then is just priceless.
It’s ok. Looks like you will probably win the nomination. Unless by some wonderful stroke of luck that Mitt dies in some freak accident and we won’t ever have to see that smug mug on television after another week or two. A guy could hope.
Either way though, Mitt’s negatives are through the roof. Wait till Labor and the Democrats get through with him. It’s going to be a bloodbath. And I’m going to be absolutely giddy.
January 30th, 2012 at 10:40 am
Tea Party rejecting Palin and her big government friend, Gingrich:
On Sarah Palin’s Facebook Page, a Revolt Against Newt Gingrich
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/01/on-sarah-palins-facebook-page-a-revolt-against-newt-gingrich/252176/
January 30th, 2012 at 10:52 am
Wow, wishing for someone’s death is hard core. You need help, lot’s of it. There is no chance on earth I vote for Gingrich in the general election. I will happily be a third party man, but at least I can recognize that this is all politics, I would never wish for Gingrich’s death; regardless of his rampant corruption, womanizing, being a liberal for the last 10 years, and overall not being a good person.
How conservatives who claim to uphold the moral standards of our country and are looking for a “Washington outsider” can support Gingrich is a mystery greater than figuring out how Denise Richards was ever cast in a role in which she played a nuclear scientist. Gingrich is the ultimate Washington insider, he doesn’t have any moral bearing whatsoever. He is a terrible person.
At least Mitt can separate reality from Politics. He knows that his family is most important and if he loses will be disappointed, go home and love his family, and ultimately support Gingrich. While Newt is a vindictive, corrupt, and unreliable individual. He will go scorched earth on Romney between now and June regardless if Mitt sews up the nomination in March. Newt doesn’t have the leadership ability, demeanor, nor moral fortitude to represent the United States in the Oval Office.
January 30th, 2012 at 10:54 am
Also, Why would Mitt have a mention in Reagan’s book? That makes no sense. Mitt wasn’t in politics under Reagan, of course he wasn’t in the book. He was busy being the standard bearer for success and the free market. Something the GOP used to think were good things.
January 30th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
For far too long conservatives have held their noses and voted for the moderate the establishment has shoved down our throats. And look where it has gotten us. Well, enough is enough. I refuse to go along, I won’t be supporting Romney now or in November.
I will be caucusing for Ron Paul on February 7 as a protest vote. I will then cast my ballot in November for a 3rd party candidate like Gary Johnson.
January 30th, 2012 at 6:33 pm
8
Satan and Newt have a lot in common I can see why you would like Newt, he is your type.
The difference between you remaining in opposition to Romney and me remaining in opposition to Newt is… In the General the more Romney is seen as not your choice, the more votes he will get in the middle.
You and your friends are poison in the General.
So your haterd of Romney actually helps him win the General…
Besides polling shows your numbers are very small…
And you have given up the high ground forever on family values… you proved complete hypocrites when push came to shove.
So go ahead, hate hate hate… it ‘s your life.