Just a hint to everyone . . . Mitt is up on Newt 47% to 31.5% based on an EARLY VOTERS average of four recent polls. I guess that’s supposed to be only about 20% of the vote, but that’s a pretty sizable sample to base things on (and Paul is doing REALLY poorly in early voting . . . average of like 8%)
I’ll put those links here and below, but just something to consider.
15 How accurate is early voting polling? Wouldn’t a typical Gingrich early voter be ashamed of his candidate by this point and lie to the pollster, say he voted for Romney? Also, early voting shows intensity but the poll is a statistical sample that cannot measure intensity. I would think that it would be difficult to predict actual early voters votes based on polling of early voters.
Crazy I know….but Santorum is going to see a surge. Newt is plummiting but there is still plenty of anti-romney vote. Santorum will also be seen in a good light after showing what is truly important after his daughter was sick.
19 . . . Early voting is more accurate than anything else that is polled IMO. What would you rather have, someone who says they’re PLANNING to vote for you, or someone who says they ALREADY voted for you. I don’t think the “shame” factor you mention is very prevalent, but it should fall out with the sample size (especially over 4 different polls).
I think we can call Florida right now for Romney based on early voting . . .
I view early voting as just early exit polls, and they are great right now for Mitt!
You are correct that more intense supporters will more likely “early vote” but when you start at 47%, for Mitt to really end up with some of the numbers people are posting (38,41) he would need to have a “day of” voting percentage of between 34-38%. He’s not going that low as I don’t think he’s been below 40% in any poll in the last few days after undecideds are factored out.
“Second prediction: Santorum “suspends” campaign by Friday of this week.”
God I hope not. I’d really like to see him outlast Gingrich…although…I’m not sure our second-placer this year will have much to do with the future of the party either way.
I agree with Ryan, and he will site his daughter’s health as the reason for suspending his campaign. This is the perfect out for Rick, to leave without admitting defeat.
31. Exactly. Santorum will explain that given his daughter’s health issues, family is more important than his campaign. Unlike Perry, however, he will not endorse Gingrich. He will also not endorse Mitt or Paul, not surprisingly.
50 – Romney – eventual winner of nomination
25 – Gingrich – I’m still hoping for a Dean scream
15 – Santorum – resumes campaign for one last try (maybe Michigan as part of his manufacturing message) but is out before super Tuesday
10 – Paul – despite his worst finish yet, continues in race to come in second in the delegate count
31, 51….he is back on the campaign trail. That doesnt look like suspending his campaign for his daughter’s health to me. She seems to be doing much better and I think Santorum sees the writing on the wall that newt is once and for all imploding and that there still needs to be a non-mitt candidate.
Newt would make a bunch of money still if he would just man up and retire. He could still be the wize old GOP codger that everyone asks his opinions. if he stays in it he becomes the insane grandpa that no one wants to be associated with.
Being conservative this time and taking into account relative viral strength of Santorum/Paul campaigns plus (slightly) lower turnout due to expected Romney shallacking
President Romney – 49%
Colony Director Grinch – 26%
Great Dad Santorum – 16%
Florida? Paul – 9%
Best part? GINGRICH CAN’T SAY, “Oh, combine us and we’ll beat Romney convincingly!” Mitt is running away with this. I actually kind of want Santorum to drop out just so Mitt can beat him in a 3 man race. I REALLY, REALLY think that Mitt, in non-early voters, will get > 50% of vote, but not so much from those first ones. He has huge momentum now. It was a firewall for winning, not it’s a firewall against absolute annihilation!
Prediction:
1. Rick Santorum’s ghost haunts his son’s 3rd place finish. Microphones clearly pick up a haunting “You are the 1%!!!”
2. Sarah Palin sets herself up for all aggrieved ABRS declaring to the so-called establishment (who didn’t even lift a finger for Mitt) “we will not sit in the back of the bus”.
3. Newt is hospitalized as he begins foaming at the mouth during his concession speech. Newt’s behavior this week is then attributed to a rabies afflicted squirrel that bit him during a fund raising visit to a petting zoo.
4. An assassition attempt is made on Mitt Romney for quoting America the Beautiful one too many times. Killer screams out “Your Iowa joke is NOT funny!!!”. Bullet holes reveal complex android techonology with the inscription “Made in China”. Jon Huntsman finds this ironic.
And a very good evening to my friends here in the willardbot fever swamp!
RCP has it at Willard by 12.5 points, and my prediction would be that Willard will underperform to that expectation, as per his usual.
How badly will he underperform?
Decent chance that his blowtorch will have incinerated him to a margin of single digits. And the above delusions of +50 Willard and 20 point margins are, well, delusional.
And if it’s at 5 or less, look out, because that means he effectively lost, but at least his campaign will not have ended, as he was facing 7 days ago.
But a tainted, marginal win, and still stuck underneath his historical Gallup ceiling? Tsk tsk… it would appear the blowtorch strategy isn’t quite what Willard HQ had in mind, no?
83
“And if it’s at 5 or less, look out, because that means he effectively lost, but at least his campaign will not have ended, as he was facing 7 days ago.”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA LET THE SPIN BEGIN, LOOK, IF MITT WINS BY 5 HE EFFECTIVELY LOST!!! HAHAHAHAHA
Joke of the day my friends, to bad the moon colony king won’t even be able to spin a 5 point loss, more like 10-20 points.
5% margin of victory is more than enough to collect ALL THE DELEGATES!
Good thing for Willard, as then he’s no longer in last place.
Now let’s make a real prediction here. Anybody wanna give me odds that Willard is behind in delegates after Super Tuesday? Come on, brave fever swampers… here’s your chance!
You know what, I don’t see Gingrich going away soon. And if he gets some message discipline and free media, and Santorum drops out and Paul stays in, there’s a chance for a brokered convention. And a brokered convention can’t likely pick either him or Willard, because they both gotta go in the garbage can at that point. Paul will demand compensation, so will Gingrich, and Willard’s head on a pike would likely be part of either’s, no matter how many delegates he shows up with. Less than 1,144 might as well be zero.
Now, I don’t think Gingrich can suddenly acquire the requisite message discipline, but if he does…
I haven’t really tabbed up these delegates… but a Texas swath might be coming Gingrich’s way at some point. Others?
If Willard had any brains, he’d call a truce, go positive and just try to beat this guy straight up.
Romney 37
Gingrich 33
Santorum 15
Paul 12
Others 3
Yes, I am concluding that PPP and Insider Advantage are right and that We Ask America is wrong. And yes, this is a very weak Romney victory and a very strong Gingrich second place. I suspect the story tomorrow night will be yet another comeback by the historian from Georgia.
And if PPP and Insider Advantage are wrong, then I’m a bum.
101. Well, those ARG figures just came out, which means that I need to post a revised prediction. That previous prediction of mine can be tossed. Here’s where I think we’ll end up now:
Romney 39
Gingrich 32
Santorum 15
Paul 11
Others 3
So Romney moves from a four point victory to a seven point victory. Still not overwhelming, and it’s still shallow enough that it could trigger talk of a Gingrich comeback.
And, incidentally, ARG doesn’t contradict PPP and Insider Advantage, though the extent of the Romney bleed is somewhat minimized; hence my revised prediction.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:32 am
Romney by 15.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:32 am
BLOWOUT!
January 30th, 2012 at 11:33 am
Romney breaks 50%. Then Callista goes out on a spree and buys $50,000 in lingerie.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:35 am
Romney – 41%
Gingrich- 30%
Santorum – 16%
Paul – 13%
January 30th, 2012 at 11:35 am
Romney 46.1%
Gingrich 28.4%
Santorum 13.8%
Paul 10.7%
Other 1.0%
=====
No guarentees I can get this all set up before the voting.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:36 am
Romney – 46%
Gingrich- 25%
Santorum – 16%
Paul – 13%
January 30th, 2012 at 11:36 am
I predict a ROMNEEEBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!
January 30th, 2012 at 11:37 am
Romney 38
Gingrich 33
Santorum 16
Paul 13
January 30th, 2012 at 11:38 am
Ah! Liz, you beat me to the 50+ comment. As unlikely as it *might* be.
Wish Prediction:
Romney = 51
Gingrich = 21
Santorum = 15
Paul = 13
(slightly more) Realistic Prediction:
Romney = 47
Gingrich = 24
Santorum = 15
Paul = 14
January 30th, 2012 at 11:39 am
Nate Silver just tweeted Romney has 20 point lead in new FL Suffolk poll!!!!!!
BOOOOOOOMMMMM!!!
January 30th, 2012 at 11:39 am
Romney – 46%
Gingrich – 31%
Santorum – 13%
Paul – 9%
Others – 1%
January 30th, 2012 at 11:40 am
45 romney
30 Newt (Does not win one country outside the pandlehandle)
15 Santorum
10 Paul
January 30th, 2012 at 11:43 am
Romney 43
Gingrich 31
Santorum 11
Paul 11
Other 4
January 30th, 2012 at 11:43 am
Romney – 46%
Gingrich – 28%
Santorum – 13%
Paul – 11%
Other – 2%
January 30th, 2012 at 11:44 am
Romney – 42%
Gingrich – 31%
Santorum – 16%
Paul – 10%
Others – 1%
January 30th, 2012 at 11:45 am
Just a hint to everyone . . . Mitt is up on Newt 47% to 31.5% based on an EARLY VOTERS average of four recent polls. I guess that’s supposed to be only about 20% of the vote, but that’s a pretty sizable sample to base things on (and Paul is doing REALLY poorly in early voting . . . average of like 8%)
I’ll put those links here and below, but just something to consider.
http://race42012.com/2012/01/29/poll-watch-nbc-news-marist-florida-2012-presidential-survey-2/
January 30th, 2012 at 11:46 am
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d5499f5d-fe8e-4423-80d6-51b54ed472d0
January 30th, 2012 at 11:46 am
Two more polls with early voting results coming:
http://www.baynews9.com/article/news/2012/january/375474/#results
January 30th, 2012 at 11:48 am
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/little-movement-in-florida.html
MY PREDICTION:
Mitt 47%
Newt 28%
Rick 15%
Paul 10%
January 30th, 2012 at 11:50 am
15 How accurate is early voting polling? Wouldn’t a typical Gingrich early voter be ashamed of his candidate by this point and lie to the pollster, say he voted for Romney? Also, early voting shows intensity but the poll is a statistical sample that cannot measure intensity. I would think that it would be difficult to predict actual early voters votes based on polling of early voters.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:52 am
Romney 48%
Gingrich 23%
Santorum 17%
Paul 10%
Other 2%
January 30th, 2012 at 11:54 am
Mitt 51%
Newt 29%
Paul 11%
Rick 9%
January 30th, 2012 at 11:59 am
Romney: 45%
Santorum: 23%
Gingrich: 22%
Paul: 10%
Crazy I know….but Santorum is going to see a surge. Newt is plummiting but there is still plenty of anti-romney vote. Santorum will also be seen in a good light after showing what is truly important after his daughter was sick.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Romney 47%
Gingrich 27%
Santorum 16%
Paul 10%
January 30th, 2012 at 12:02 pm
19 . . . Early voting is more accurate than anything else that is polled IMO. What would you rather have, someone who says they’re PLANNING to vote for you, or someone who says they ALREADY voted for you. I don’t think the “shame” factor you mention is very prevalent, but it should fall out with the sample size (especially over 4 different polls).
I think we can call Florida right now for Romney based on early voting . . .
I view early voting as just early exit polls, and they are great right now for Mitt!
You are correct that more intense supporters will more likely “early vote” but when you start at 47%, for Mitt to really end up with some of the numbers people are posting (38,41) he would need to have a “day of” voting percentage of between 34-38%. He’s not going that low as I don’t think he’s been below 40% in any poll in the last few days after undecideds are factored out.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Romney 48%
Gingrich 23%
Santy 18%
Paul 11%
January 30th, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Romney – 47%
Gingrich – 33%
Paul – 11%
Santorum – 9%
January 30th, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Second prediction: Santorum “suspends” campaign by Friday of this week.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Romney 49.3
Gingrich 22.1
Santorum 18.5
Paul 10.1
January 30th, 2012 at 12:10 pm
“Second prediction: Santorum “suspends” campaign by Friday of this week.”
God I hope not. I’d really like to see him outlast Gingrich…although…I’m not sure our second-placer this year will have much to do with the future of the party either way.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:13 pm
I agree with Ryan, and he will site his daughter’s health as the reason for suspending his campaign. This is the perfect out for Rick, to leave without admitting defeat.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Romney 45.6%
Gingrich 28.2%
Santorum 16.6
Paul 9.8%
January 30th, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Mitt – 50%
Newt – 26%
Rick – 14%
Ron – 9%
Other – 1%
January 30th, 2012 at 12:25 pm
mitt 49%
newt 25%
rick 17%
ron 8%
other 1
January 30th, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Romney: 47.5%
Gingrich: 23.5%
Santorum: 19.0%
Paul: 10%
January 30th, 2012 at 12:26 pm
My prediction…..
Romney – 46%
Gingrich – 28%
Santourm – 15%
Paul – 11%
January 30th, 2012 at 12:26 pm
Romney 47%
Gingrich 31%
Santorum 11%
Paul 9%
Other 2%
January 30th, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Romney 45.6%
Gingrich 26.7%
Santorum 15.5%
Paul 9.9%
Other 2.1%
January 30th, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Romney: 46.5
Gingrich: 27.5
Paul: 13.5
Paul: 12.5
January 30th, 2012 at 12:28 pm
This is a good day.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:29 pm
Mitt 45
Gingrich 29
Santorum 16
Paul 10
January 30th, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Romney 48
Gingrich 25
Santorum 17
Paul 10
January 30th, 2012 at 12:32 pm
Mitt 46%
Newt 28%
Rick 16%
Ron 10%
January 30th, 2012 at 12:32 pm
45.4% – Romney
28.4% – Gingrich
14.2% – Santorum
10.5% – Paul
1.5% – Other
January 30th, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Romney 45
Gingrich 28
Santorum 15
Paul 10
Other 1
January 30th, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Mitt – 42
Newr 32
Rick – 15
Paul – 10
other 1
January 30th, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Romney 51%
Gingrich 25%
Santorum 14%
Paul 9%
Other 1%
Mitt is the man!
January 30th, 2012 at 12:49 pm
mitt – 42
newt – 34
santorum -14
paul – 10
January 30th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Romney – 46
Gingrich – 28
Santorum – 16
Paul – 10
January 30th, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Romney 45.5
Gingrich 25.2
Santorum 15.6
Paul 12.2
Other 1.5
January 30th, 2012 at 1:05 pm
31. Exactly. Santorum will explain that given his daughter’s health issues, family is more important than his campaign. Unlike Perry, however, he will not endorse Gingrich. He will also not endorse Mitt or Paul, not surprisingly.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Romney 47
Newtster 30
Santorum 14
Paul 9
Lock it in!!!!!
January 30th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
50 – Romney – eventual winner of nomination
25 – Gingrich – I’m still hoping for a Dean scream
15 – Santorum – resumes campaign for one last try (maybe Michigan as part of his manufacturing message) but is out before super Tuesday
10 – Paul – despite his worst finish yet, continues in race to come in second in the delegate count
January 30th, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Romney 45.1
Gingrich 32.2
Santorum 12.3
Paul 9.7
Others 0.7
January 30th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Romney 80
Gingrich 7
Santo 7
Paul 6
The tide has tuned!
General election results:
Obama 50 states
Romney 0
January 30th, 2012 at 1:42 pm
31, 51….he is back on the campaign trail. That doesnt look like suspending his campaign for his daughter’s health to me. She seems to be doing much better and I think Santorum sees the writing on the wall that newt is once and for all imploding and that there still needs to be a non-mitt candidate.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Romney 44
Gingrich 31
Santorum 15
Paul 9
Others 1
January 30th, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Romney – 50.5
Gingrich 24.5
Santorum 14
Paul 11
Newt would make a bunch of money still if he would just man up and retire. He could still be the wize old GOP codger that everyone asks his opinions. if he stays in it he becomes the insane grandpa that no one wants to be associated with.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Romney 39.5
Gingrich 32.5
Santorum 28
Paul 12
Being conservative this time and taking into account relative viral strength of Santorum/Paul campaigns plus (slightly) lower turnout due to expected Romney shallacking
January 30th, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Romney 48
Gingrich 26
Santorum 16
Paul 10
January 30th, 2012 at 1:56 pm
59
CORRECTION
Romney 39.5
Gingrich 32.5
Santorum 18
Paul 12
January 30th, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Romney 48
Newt 26
Sant 16
Paul 10
January 30th, 2012 at 2:10 pm
My prediction is that Romney kills Gingrich and Gingrich will yell and scream voter fraud or something ridiculous.
no really he will just say, its because of his money. he outspent me. if i had more money i would beat him.
Romney by 9 points.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Romney: 44
Gingrich: 34
Santorum: 11
Paul: 8
Other: 3
January 30th, 2012 at 2:16 pm
President Romney – 49%
Colony Director Grinch – 26%
Great Dad Santorum – 16%
Florida? Paul – 9%
Best part? GINGRICH CAN’T SAY, “Oh, combine us and we’ll beat Romney convincingly!” Mitt is running away with this. I actually kind of want Santorum to drop out just so Mitt can beat him in a 3 man race. I REALLY, REALLY think that Mitt, in non-early voters, will get > 50% of vote, but not so much from those first ones. He has huge momentum now. It was a firewall for winning, not it’s a firewall against absolute annihilation!
January 30th, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Romney 44
Gingrich 32
Santorum 14
Paul 10
January 30th, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Romney 49%
Gingrich 31%
Santorum 11%
Paul 9%
January 30th, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Romney 43%
Moonbeam
January 30th, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Romney 43%
Moonbeam 32%
Santorum 16%
Paul 9%
January 30th, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Romney – 47%
Gingrich – 30%
Santorum – 13%
Paul – 9%
Other – 1%
January 30th, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Rom 60
Ging 23
Rick 9
Paul 8
January 30th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Romney 46
Gingrich 29
Santorum 15
Paul 10
January 30th, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Romney-45
Ginrich-26
Santorum-15
Paul-13
Other-1
January 30th, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Romney: 41
Gingrich: 31
Santorum: 16
Paul: 12
Other: 1
January 30th, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Romney 41%
Gingrich 35%
Santorum 15%
Paul 9%
January 30th, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Prediction:
1. Rick Santorum’s ghost haunts his son’s 3rd place finish. Microphones clearly pick up a haunting “You are the 1%!!!”
2. Sarah Palin sets herself up for all aggrieved ABRS declaring to the so-called establishment (who didn’t even lift a finger for Mitt) “we will not sit in the back of the bus”.
3. Newt is hospitalized as he begins foaming at the mouth during his concession speech. Newt’s behavior this week is then attributed to a rabies afflicted squirrel that bit him during a fund raising visit to a petting zoo.
4. An assassition attempt is made on Mitt Romney for quoting America the Beautiful one too many times. Killer screams out “Your Iowa joke is NOT funny!!!”. Bullet holes reveal complex android techonology with the inscription “Made in China”. Jon Huntsman finds this ironic.
January 30th, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Romney 44
Gingrich 31
Santorum 17
Paul 8
January 30th, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Romney-42
Gingrich-33
Santorum-13
Paul-11
January 30th, 2012 at 5:09 pm
Romney- 50
Santorum- 21
Gingrich- 19
Paul- 9
Others- 1
January 30th, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Romney 42
Gingrich 27
Santorum 17
Paul 14
January 30th, 2012 at 5:50 pm
Romney 45
Gingrich 25
Santorum 18
Paul 12
January 30th, 2012 at 5:57 pm
75
Desperate wishful thinking. Keep dreaming.
January 30th, 2012 at 6:07 pm
And a very good evening to my friends here in the willardbot fever swamp!
RCP has it at Willard by 12.5 points, and my prediction would be that Willard will underperform to that expectation, as per his usual.
How badly will he underperform?
Decent chance that his blowtorch will have incinerated him to a margin of single digits. And the above delusions of +50 Willard and 20 point margins are, well, delusional.
And if it’s at 5 or less, look out, because that means he effectively lost, but at least his campaign will not have ended, as he was facing 7 days ago.
But a tainted, marginal win, and still stuck underneath his historical Gallup ceiling? Tsk tsk… it would appear the blowtorch strategy isn’t quite what Willard HQ had in mind, no?
January 30th, 2012 at 6:08 pm
Romney 45%
Gingrich 28%
Santorum 15%
Paul 12%
Badda Bing, Badda Bang!!!!
January 30th, 2012 at 6:13 pm
83
“And if it’s at 5 or less, look out, because that means he effectively lost, but at least his campaign will not have ended, as he was facing 7 days ago.”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA LET THE SPIN BEGIN, LOOK, IF MITT WINS BY 5 HE EFFECTIVELY LOST!!! HAHAHAHAHA
Joke of the day my friends, to bad the moon colony king won’t even be able to spin a 5 point loss, more like 10-20 points.
January 30th, 2012 at 6:35 pm
5% margin of victory is more than enough to collect ALL THE DELEGATES!
January 30th, 2012 at 6:48 pm
Mitt Romney 44.3%
Newt Gingrich 30.4%
Rick Santorum 15.7%
Ron Paul 9.6%
January 30th, 2012 at 6:52 pm
Ya’ll have drank the KOOLAID! and it’s flavor is RED! LOL! Romney will win the overall… but Newt will carry more counties.
January 30th, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Mitt Romney: 45.6%
Newt Gingrich: 27.9%
Rick Santorum: 16.3%
Ron Paul: 10.2%
January 30th, 2012 at 7:05 pm
5% margin of victory is more than enough to collect ALL THE DELEGATES!
Good thing for Willard, as then he’s no longer in last place.
Now let’s make a real prediction here. Anybody wanna give me odds that Willard is behind in delegates after Super Tuesday? Come on, brave fever swampers… here’s your chance!
You know what, I don’t see Gingrich going away soon. And if he gets some message discipline and free media, and Santorum drops out and Paul stays in, there’s a chance for a brokered convention. And a brokered convention can’t likely pick either him or Willard, because they both gotta go in the garbage can at that point. Paul will demand compensation, so will Gingrich, and Willard’s head on a pike would likely be part of either’s, no matter how many delegates he shows up with. Less than 1,144 might as well be zero.
Now, I don’t think Gingrich can suddenly acquire the requisite message discipline, but if he does…
I haven’t really tabbed up these delegates… but a Texas swath might be coming Gingrich’s way at some point. Others?
If Willard had any brains, he’d call a truce, go positive and just try to beat this guy straight up.
January 30th, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Gingrich slits his wrist
January 30th, 2012 at 7:23 pm
Romney 44%
Gingrich 27%
Santorum 19%
Paul 10%
January 30th, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Mitt – 41
Newr 33
Rick – 15
Paul – 10
other 1
January 30th, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Romney The Nominee 47%
Newt Potty Pants 29%
Righteous Rick 14%
Rockin’ Ronnie P 10%
January 30th, 2012 at 7:46 pm
Romney: 47.2
Gingrich: 28.5
Santorum: 13.1
Paul: 9.7
January 30th, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Romney: 45.8
Gingrich: 29.7
Santorum: 13.4
Paul: 11.1
January 30th, 2012 at 8:48 pm
mittens-43.2%
gingrinch-30.6%
santa-15.4%
ronulus-10%
other-0.8%
January 30th, 2012 at 9:10 pm
Romney:39
Gingrich:30
Santorum:19
Paul:12
January 30th, 2012 at 9:33 pm
Rescinding my earlier after realizing I was thinking with my heart.
New:
Romney 45%
Gingrich 29%
Santorum 15%
Paul 11%
January 30th, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Romney. 63%
Gingrich. 18%
Santorum. 10%
Paul. 9%
January 30th, 2012 at 11:24 pm
And here’s my prediction (ta-dah!):
Romney 37
Gingrich 33
Santorum 15
Paul 12
Others 3
Yes, I am concluding that PPP and Insider Advantage are right and that We Ask America is wrong. And yes, this is a very weak Romney victory and a very strong Gingrich second place. I suspect the story tomorrow night will be yet another comeback by the historian from Georgia.
And if PPP and Insider Advantage are wrong, then I’m a bum.
January 31st, 2012 at 12:39 am
Romney – 46
Newt – 30
Santorum – 11
Paul – 10
Other – 3
January 31st, 2012 at 3:53 am
Romney – 44.7%
Gingrich – 29.7%
Santorum – 14.3%
Paul – 10.1%
Others – 1.2%
January 31st, 2012 at 9:37 am
Romney – 42%
Gingrich – 31%
Santorum – 14%
Paul – 10%
Others – 3%
January 31st, 2012 at 9:38 am
Correction to mine;
Romney: 46.5%
Gingrich: 24.7%
Santorum: 18.2%
Paul: 10%
Others: .6%
January 31st, 2012 at 9:43 am
Sorry that was a typo:
Romney: 44.5%
Gingrich: 32.7%
Santorum: 11.5%
Paul: 10%
Others: 1.3%
January 31st, 2012 at 10:25 am
Romney 39
Gingrich 31
Santorum 17
Paul 10
others 3
January 31st, 2012 at 10:52 am
Gingrich 36%
Romney 34%
Santorum 18%
Paul 8%
Others 4%
January 31st, 2012 at 11:16 am
101. Well, those ARG figures just came out, which means that I need to post a revised prediction. That previous prediction of mine can be tossed. Here’s where I think we’ll end up now:
Romney 39
Gingrich 32
Santorum 15
Paul 11
Others 3
So Romney moves from a four point victory to a seven point victory. Still not overwhelming, and it’s still shallow enough that it could trigger talk of a Gingrich comeback.
And, incidentally, ARG doesn’t contradict PPP and Insider Advantage, though the extent of the Romney bleed is somewhat minimized; hence my revised prediction.
January 31st, 2012 at 11:24 am
Romney 42
Gingrich 40
others 18
January 31st, 2012 at 11:36 am
Romney 46
Gingrich 34
Santorum 11
Paul 9
January 31st, 2012 at 11:37 am
Romney 46%
Gingrich 34%
Santorum 11%
Paul 9%
January 31st, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Romney 43
Gingrich 29
Santorum 16
Paul 12
January 31st, 2012 at 4:03 pm
Romney 43
Gingrich 28.5
Santorum 17
Paul 10
Other 1.5