Mason-Dixon Virginia 2012 Presidential Poll
- Barack Obama 45%
- Mitt Romney 44%
- Undecided 11%
- Barack Obama 49%
- Newt Gingrich 38%
- Undecided 13%
Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted January 16-18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.
Inside the numbers:
Romney leads by five points among independents, but Obama hoards 89 percent of Democrats to inch in front of the former Massachusetts governor.
Obama leads Gingrich by 11 points among independents.
Voters are mixed on Obama: 39 percent rate him favorably, 41 percent rate him unfavorably and 19 percent say they are neutral. Romney, on the other hand, has a more positive image rating: 36 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of him, while only 29 percent have an unfavorable opinion and 31 percent say they feel neutral.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
January 28th, 2012 at 12:50 am
Lots of Virginia polling. More proof that Republicans should carefully choose their candidate. Romney runs neck and neck with Obama, whereas Newt guarantees Obama carries the state by double digits close to his high water mark of 50%.
Though I know Virginians won’t be choosing Newt to represent them this year.
January 28th, 2012 at 12:52 am
Maybe Romney will get lucky and Obama will miss the ballot qualifications too
Actually, I’m pretty happy with this. A year or two ago it was starting to look like Virginia was starting to move into the “leans Obama” territory and we’d need to find somewhere else to make up this state’s EVs. The direction of the polling is promising and, in a competitive race it looks to be at least a toss-up.
January 28th, 2012 at 1:04 am
I’m sorry, who are the rubes backing Newt at this point. I know, very intolerant of me, but there is so much at stake this cycle and I won’t support the unicorn voters this time.
January 28th, 2012 at 1:30 am
This poll was taken before Mitt’s 2 dazzling debate performances, which included Newt’s 2 painful performances.
The numbers would undoubtedly be better for Mitt and worse for Newt if the poll were taken after Thursday’s debate.
January 28th, 2012 at 5:10 am
How does Newt so convincingly lose his home state?
January 28th, 2012 at 5:30 am
When McCain picked Palin I didn’t see that she was such a great pick, but I was willing to have an open mind. I gave her a pass on the Couric interviews, and defended her for some time. Then I kind of gave her the benefit of the doubt figuring she speaks to a certain part of the electorate. Now I can’t defend her or give her the benefit of the doubt anymore. She’s just stupid, which wouldn’t be so bad if she didn’t try and talk about things that were beyond her. She just needs to STHU, and go back to sports.
January 28th, 2012 at 5:45 am
It absolutely ridiculous that Palin is saying that kind of non-sensical crap while still pretending like she is neutral. She is clearly not. She even went so far as to defend Newt’s attacks against Bain, saying it was good for him. Why is this not good for Newt?
Time to come out of the closet and tell the truth Sarah. You have been a Newt supporter for a while now.
January 28th, 2012 at 7:08 am
Palin is dumb as stump… Sorry Palinites…. The Woman needs to go away…. She is a loser…
January 28th, 2012 at 7:30 am
A big advantage that Romney has in the general election was established in 2010 when he tirelessly campaigned for Republican candidates at the federal, state and local levels. He has built himself an army of true grass roots support that will be needed to defeat the Obama machine.
I feel this is part of what is driving Sarah Palin’s ant-Romney rhetoric, it is pure jealousy. In her mind that was supposed to be her grass root support and she was supposed to be where Romney is now.
January 28th, 2012 at 7:38 am
Yeah, pretty old poll relatively. Still shows Newt would be a disaster on any ticket.
Romney warned about an “October surprise” every day with Newt. If he can’t withstand a coordinated attack from Drudge, he’s a true paper tiger and Obama and the media would tear him up. . We’ve all been done a favor.
Palin, Rush, Newt, Hannitty and the vast majority of those who get rich off of political opining and selling books don’t really want Obama out of office, they make much more when they are out of power.
Conspiracy theory by me? Maybe…
January 28th, 2012 at 8:17 am
What?! Newt behind Obama by 10 in his own home state of Virginia? Obviously the pollster skewed this poll by contacting Newt’s neighbors. Shame on them.
January 28th, 2012 at 8:40 am
If Newt were nominated, he’d trend worse and worse vs Obama. Why? He is angry and petulant. Americans want an optimistic President, not an angry white male.
Newt v Obama would be an unmitigated disaster!
January 28th, 2012 at 8:50 am
Mitt event LIVE NOW
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/cvplive/cvpstream2
January 28th, 2012 at 8:52 am
Top of the morning from South Florida.
The mood is positive.
Give em hell Mitt!
January 28th, 2012 at 8:58 am
So this fever swamp of a website is anti-Palin, too?
Wow.
Just wow.
Do you willardbots realize that you’re now officially 24% of the R electorate, and the rest of us outnumber you over 3 to 1?
That would be over 3 of us for every single one of you.
Now, maybe you’ve got the better of the argument. I doubt it, but who really knows for sure? But you’d do well to understand the dynamics in play here. This is an Anybody But Willard electorate, by overwhelming margins. The hard data is quite clear on that (unless you’re deluded and ignore it, as seems common in this fever swamp here).
What Palin is saying may not be something you agree with, but there are way more people who agree with it than agree with you.
Waaaaaaay more.
January 28th, 2012 at 9:01 am
15
Romney’s favorables in the GOP are 65% favorable, 25% unfavorable. So no, you’re dead wrong.
Furthermore, Romney consistently wins 1-on-1 matchups against non-Romney candidates, with the only exception as a poll taken after Noot’s SC bounce last weekend.
So keep gloating, but you have no clue what you’re talking about, and none of your thoughts are your own. And when “Willard” is the nominee, I’m going to laugh in your convulsing rabid face.
January 28th, 2012 at 9:13 am
Hey look folks! An endangered species, Harold. He still thinks that Palin is the mostest awesomest thing ever. Enjoy gawking while you can, there are only a few hundred of these modern dodos left.
January 28th, 2012 at 9:14 am
Mass con,
Bingo. Newt only started climbing, and Romney falling, when his debate performances in South Carolina erased Romney’s electability advantage. Why conservatives think that an ability to beat up a moderator who’s not on the ballot is indicative of an ability to overcome a 2 to 1 unfavorable/favorable divide I can’t imagine, but there you are. Republicans like Romney fine. They just prefer bombast and if they can possibly convince themselves that bombast can win, they’ll vote for it.
January 28th, 2012 at 9:19 am
17
You DO have to wonder what these people are thinking. How can anyone STILL be obsessed with Palin? She’s not been in office since 2009, when she quit. After that, she’s been a paid commentator on Fox News. What’s to like?
Her political capital is essentially zero, and she doesn’t seem to mind that fact one bit.
Anyone who STILL thinks Palin could be president or has anything interesting to say… well… we have padded rooms for these people.
January 28th, 2012 at 9:22 am
#15 “Do you willardbots realize that you’re now officially 24% of the R electorate, and the rest of us outnumber you over 3 to 1?”
Well then, we should expect Newt to wrap this thing up without any further wasted effort. Romney’s campaign must make the only rational decision possible against the juggernaut force of such overwhelming numbers, Newt’s indisputable superiority as the candidate who can successfully sell the conservative message to swing voters (including women) who decide elections, and–above all–the imprimatur of the former mayor of Wasilla AK. Yes, folks, Romney must concede immediately so Newt can ascend to perform his pivotal role in history to fundamentally reshape and restore America above and beyond its most Reaganesque glory and greatness.
Anything less would be not merely a crime against humanity, it would be capital crime against the cosmos–against the very fabric of time and space itself.
January 28th, 2012 at 9:26 am
18
I think the appeal of Gingrich comes from a logical fallacy to begin with, and it’s this: His supporters think the entire country is as angry at Obama has they are.
If you think 60% of the country hates Obama with every fiber of their being, it’s easy to support Gingrich.
If you don’t, you realize that his style would hand independents, swing voters, and Obama-skeptical moderates straight to Obama. People are disappointed with Obama, they don’t hate him.
I hate him, but I’m a Conservative GOP primary voter.
But some of my friends and relatives are independents and swing voters. They are disappointed with Obama, not angry with him. And every time someone like Gingrich, Bachmann, Trump, Perry, Cain comes along, they immediately question them. They say they are disingenuous about Obama. They say they are too divisive. But when it comes to Mitt, they want to like him but have questions about his ability to win the hard-right in the primary.
It’s a question of understanding reality. If you only know people who hate Obama, and you gauge public opinion on hard-right political blogs, you will not know where the country truly is. Gingrich is not where the country is.
January 28th, 2012 at 9:31 am
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/01/war-room-poll-mitt-romney-blowing-newt-gingrich-away-40-30-in-fl-mack-commands-senate-race.html
Florida Poll, taken on Friday:
Mitt Romney: 40%
Newt Gingrich: 30%
Rick Santorum: 15%
Ron Paul 6%
UND: 8%
January 28th, 2012 at 9:31 am
Question for any Newt/Palin supporters.
Will you accept any “establishment” support should you win the nomination or will you want them to keep their $$$ and influence on the sidelines? Is this true anti-establishment anger or just anger because they are not supporting your candidate?
January 28th, 2012 at 9:35 am
15.
Your post reminds me of a moment from the movie The Princess Bride:
“Inconceivable!”
“I don’t not think that word means what you think it means.”
January 28th, 2012 at 9:39 am
Mass Con,
That’s a big part of the problem but not the only problem. The truth is, Gingrich just isn’t all that great with confronting people as smart, or smarter, than he is. He’s great at punching moderators and the media. But he has yet to really win an exchange with Romney. He’s won debates by having big moments while Romney made silly mistakes (the tax return snaffu for instance). In one on one debates with Romney- as we saw from Thursday nights showdown- Newt would lose more often than not. Even with a GOP primary electorate. There’s just no way that he’d be the best person to confront Obama in the staid, serious affairs that are general election debates.
Odds are, he’d just melt- as he melted whenever he confronted Clinton and as he melted in the exchanges with Romney. The only advantage he’d have is that, not having gone through a primary this go around, Obama hasn’t recently gone through 20 debates of practice. But any GOP nominee would have that advantage. And unlike Romney, Newt seems to have learned all the wrong lessons from the debates.
So it’s not just that GOP primary voters are wrong in assuming the electorate wants a bully to go up their and bludgeon Obama to death- they’re wrong in their belief that Newt’s capable of satisfying that imaginary wish. He’d be quietly, efficiently, cheerfully, creamed.
January 28th, 2012 at 9:39 am
22. Curious. I’d have thought Romney’s numbers would have been about 5pts better and we’d be looking at 40 Mitt / 25 Newt.
Double digit feels nice though.
January 28th, 2012 at 9:49 am
The Fox News debate in SC was designed to help Newt to get a bounce, Juan Williams knew very well what he was doing and he has said that he knew the audience would react the way they did. The only reason why Williams was asking questions was to boost Gingrich chances, it was exactly the same they did when Alan Colmes atacked Rick Santorum (just before the Iowa Caucus) about the way the former senator handled the dead of one of his sons.
January 28th, 2012 at 10:00 am
26
The poll is trash. War Room Logistics is about as bad as YouGov
January 28th, 2012 at 10:06 am
#5 Newt loses his home state because people who know him don’t think he’s qualified to be POTUS. None of the Congress he worked with during his Speaker days have endorsed him. To know him seems to be to dislike him.
January 28th, 2012 at 10:12 am
28:
Yeah could be. Also the Ron Paul numbers (5.9%) are off compared to different polls, only poll from FL from RCP poll list this year that had Ron Paul that low was FL Chambers of Commerce poll and they aren’t really prestigious pollster either. So that could be another sign that there is something off with the poll.
January 28th, 2012 at 10:18 am
For Gingrich to win, the undecideds would have to break unanimously to the challenger. Unfortunately, we know that that doesn’t happen. For Mitt to win, and win comfortably, the undecideds would only have to break disproportionately to the challenger….and fortunately, that’s exactly what happens, and in virtually every case.
The odd exception might be with a candidate like Gingrich, in whom familiarity breeds contempt. Newt would get annihilated.
January 28th, 2012 at 10:31 am
28. At this point, the numbers in that War Room Logistics (WRL) poll look kinda/sorta okay with one rather glaring exception: Ron Paul. Ron Paul’s CPSR in the previous two surveys from Quinnipiac and Sunshine is 9.9-12.3%. But this latest poll’s PSR for Paul is 3.5-8.5, clearly a mismatch. Since we have no other polling from the 27th this could theoretically be right. But absent corroborative evidence from contemporaneous surveys, I’d say you’re right that these numbers for Paul at least have to be taken with a grain of salt. But in fairness to WRL, let me repeat that their other numbers look about right.
More interesting, to my mind, is the Florida survey taken by Dixie Strategies on the 23rd through the 25th, which was released today at http://download.gannett.edgesuite.net/wtlv/images/politics/012712FCNdixiepoll1234.html . Dixie’s candidate PSRs do not overlap the last surveys taken minus WRL (Monmouth, Insider Advantage, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac and Sunshine). But the indications are that Dixie is nevertheless right. Why? Because its candidate PSRs DO overlap with the two surveys taken immediately BEFORE Dixie, by CNN and ARG.
So how do CNN, ARG and Dixie all differ from the later five surveys?
Their PSRs for Gingrich and Paul show movement. CNN, ARG and Dixie show Gingrich with a CPSR of 33.6-36.5%, while the current five surveys show Gingrich with a CPSR of 28.8-33.1 CNN, ARG and Dixie show Paul with a CPSR of 5.5-9.3% while the current five surveys show Paul with a CPSR of 9.9-12.2%.
In other words, it would appear that Paul is picking up some of the support that Gingrich has lost this week. I find that intriguing, since I would have expected that the beneficiary would be Santorum rather than Paul.
Of course, assuming the WRL survey is incorrect, we have yet to see substantial post-Thursday debate polling. I believe it’s quite possible that Santorum’s strong performance that night may change the Gingrich bleed to favor Santorum rather than Paul, but that’s just sheer guesswork on my part; I cannot back that up with any concrete statistical indications at the moment.
Unless WRL is indeed accurate, and is indeed showing us a Paul bleed which will eventually resolve itself in Santorum’s favor, as a result of the latter’s kickass Thursday performance.
January 28th, 2012 at 10:36 am
At this point, I could see this as the final FL result:
Romney – 48%
Gingrich – 31%
Santorum – 12%
Paul – 9%
January 28th, 2012 at 10:40 am
And the way I arrive at that result is that I believe turnout for:
Gingrich will be extremely low because of negative ads against him, his poor debate, and his whining and negativity.
Santorum will be low because he wrote Florida off.
Paul will be low because there are no independents allowed and he wrote Florida off.
January 28th, 2012 at 10:50 am
The voter ideology seems to be way off in the Dixie poll.
Combined “Very conservative”/”Somewhat Conservative” numbers are 79.48%, whereas in 2008 exit Florida exit polls they were 61%.
If you compare 2008 and 2012 SC exit polls, the combined “Very conservative”/”Somewhat Conservative” number staid same.
Don’t see a reason why for Florida it would be 18.48% higher than in 2008.
Dixie poll has cross tabs though so I guess it’s possible to calculate more realistic results based on 2008 exit polls, maybe couple more points from “somewhat conservative” to “very conservative”, in SC “very conservative” was 2 points higher and “somewhat conservative” 2 points lower this year than 2008.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/79623623/Dixie-Strategies-First-Coast-News-Poll
January 28th, 2012 at 10:50 am
Romney dominates Ohio Straw Poll
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120128/NEWS010601/120128006
January 28th, 2012 at 10:54 am
Exit polls from early voting in Naples and Bonita have Romney leading Gingrich 63% to 28%
http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2012/jan/23/collier-and-bonita-early-voting-exit-polls/
January 28th, 2012 at 11:07 am
http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2012/jan/23/collier-and-bonita-early-voting-exit-polls/
Jan 27th totals
GOP PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
Mitt Romney: 256
Newt Gingrich: 114
Rick Santorum: 25
Ron Paul: 9
If you look at Jan 25th totals that I found cached at google, there is quite a nice surge on 26 and 27
Romney 171
Gingrich 90
Santorum
Paul 6
January 28th, 2012 at 11:08 am
It should have been Santorum 11
January 28th, 2012 at 11:10 am
Romney won Collier County (which houses Naples) by 15 points last time and won Lee County (which houses Bonita) by 7 points. So Gingrich supporters might argue “those are Mitt areas anyway”. But in fact, what we’ve seen in most of the primaries this year, is Mitt underperforming in the counties he won last go around and overperforming in the McCain counties. He’s been losing some of the true conservatives and winning over gobs of McCain’s moderate coalition. So Gingrich trailing by 35 points in the more conservative counties is a REALLY bad sign for Newt. Collier County voted for McCain by 22 points in ’08, by far the best margin McCain had in a large county. If Newt’s losing badly there it’s really difficult to see how he goes anywhere. Especially when Romney’s liable to improve his ’08 % in McCain counties like Miami-Dade by 20 or more points. Newt’s will be relegated to the sparsely populated pandhandle.
January 28th, 2012 at 11:13 am
40
Newt won’t even do well in the panhandle. Mitt is trailblazing the Panhandle today with McCain, courting the military vote. Newt might win some counties there, but he will lose some too, which will cement the fact that Romney is going to run away with FL by 15+
January 28th, 2012 at 11:22 am
Mass Con,
Yeah, now that I actually look at the map, the pandhandle was McCain territory in ’08. It’s really Republican but, as you noted, dominated by the military vote. Newt’s going to have to hope from a lot of help from Northeastern Florida. Populous counties like Duval which lean Republican in a general but have considerably more conservative Republican electorates.
January 28th, 2012 at 11:32 am
Consider: Miami-Dade accounts for the most votes in a Republican primary. It’ll probably account for somewhere between 150k and 175k votes this time around. Or roughly 7-9% of the electorate. Last time, Romney came in third in Miami-Dade with 16%, behind McCain and Rudy. It was, as near as I can tell, the only county in the state where Romney finish below Rudy. Miami-Dade is pretty much the Cuban vote and this time the Cuban vote is in Romney’s pocket. If he just went from 16% to 40% he’d pick up between 35k and 45k votes. If he matched McCain’s percentage- 49%- he’d pick up between 50k and 60k votes. That’s a pretty big help in a contest in which less than 100k votes separated the winners last time.
January 28th, 2012 at 11:36 am
42
Interesting that you mention Duval County, which houses Jacksonille.
Mitt won Jacksonville in 2008 over McCain and has a large and competent campaign apparatus in the area. The last debate was in Jacksonville, and if the crowd is any indication, he’s looking good there again.
It’s not looking good for Gingrich in Florida, really anywhere. His best areas might be where there just aren’t many people, like areas near Lake Okachobee, Gainesville, and east of Tallahassee in the sticks.
Mitt may even win those areas, albeit by a slimmer margin than Miami-Dade. Expect Mitt to easily win 50% of the vote, maybe 60% in Southeast Florida. McCain won 45-50% in those counties in 2008, and Mitt will pick up many of those voters, especially hispanics.
It’s gonna be a bloodbath.
January 28th, 2012 at 3:42 pm
I enjoyed the earlier comments about Sarah Palin. Let me add my own.
Sarah Palin needs to learn that whenever someone asks her about politics, she should just smile and say, “I like furry little kittens.”
May 4th, 2012 at 8:01 am
process. some people post twice a day,…
and even up to 3 times a day.just be sure not to post too much because a red flag will go off and google will think that your blog is a spam blog. so stay away from doing that.these 3 tips…
May 9th, 2012 at 11:14 pm
at least twice as many carbohydrates to…
protein for your supplement. you can recover from bankruptcy fastbankruptcy can be a hard experience, no doubt. but, as uncomfortable as it is, once it is done, recovery can be accelerated by putting a few select credit repair techniques to work….