Gallup has released their 1/27 daily tracking poll. As usual, the graphics are courtesy of Gallup:
Gingrich clicks up a point to 32%. It has to be a welcomed return to positive momentum for the former Speaker of the House after stalling at 31% for a couple of days.
The news isn’t so good for Romney. The former Governor of Massachusetts continues his slide by dropping a point to land at 24%. That gives Gingrich an eight point lead. That has to be discouraging for Mitt after he has been doing so well in Florida.
Paul has ticked back up a point to match his previous high water mark of 14%. He now claims sole possession of third place.
Santorum pushes. He remains at 13%. With Paul’s upward movement, he is left all alone in fourth place. He has been in last place — either in a tie, or sole possessor of it — for the last nine days. Coupled with his equally abysmal numbers in Florida, I don’t see how Rick can reasonably continue past the Florida Primary next week unless some miracle happens Sunshine State.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:24 pm
That 25% ceiling is looking mighty sturdy.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:26 pm
Mitt’s 15 point drop reflects people who are only vaguely familiar with what’s going on in the race. They are people who want to be with a winner, and they will be back.
The poll reflects the SC bounce…..not what’s happening with Florida…..and not what’s going to be happening in February.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:30 pm
Case-in-point: Romney stayed quite high in these even as his SC numbers were plummeting. Only when it hit critical mass that he would lose and did lose SC did the national numbers catch up.
Ask President Giuliani how much national numbers matter.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:31 pm
I’m really curious about the disparity between the national polls and the state-by-state polls. I still see Gingrich dropping out after Super Tuesday.
Something’s up with this poll.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Still 2 days in this sample from before Monday’s debate.
I am surprised the change from SC was that large… wow.
Anyway, once Mitt wins FL, he will re-take the lead. Perhaps before then.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Yes, everything has changed this week. These national polls seem to be a couple days behind the curve.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:42 pm
The wall st journal poll out yesterday had Gingrich losing 69-21 among women to obama.
Gingrich losing 52-28 among independents. Gingrich losing rural women to obama which is unheard of for a gop candidate.
But losing 69-21 among women got almost zero publicity today. The problem is the media on the left wants gingrich. MSNBC after the debate monday was cheering him on. Chris mathews admitted he is rooting for gingrich. Labor unions in florida spending one million against romney. Dems know with a nominee gingrich they can shift all their money to house and senate races.
We will get a new look at the race 5 days after florida in the gallup tracking poll. But Gingrich will do well with caucuses as they are dominated by activists. Missiouri and washington state went to caucuses this year. PPP shows newt up big in the minnesota caucus.
Newt is up 37-28 in the wall street journal poll against romney but loses to obama 55-37. This is what happens with closed primaries and not allowing independents to vote.
Romney’s mormonism is killing him in the south. Newt up 65-28 in head to head matchup in the south. Super tuesday with tennessee, georgia and oklahoma could be ugly. I mean real ugly. Take out the florida numbers and the south is even far worse. I wish Gingrich was on the virginia ballot because virginia is more of a periphery state like florida that romney could have won to dismiss the drubbing he will take in the other southern states.
Everyone always thought that if huckabee dropped out it would help romney but the polls actually showed huckabee’s vote going to mccain.
The establishment is fearful of gingrich allowing the dems to spend all their cash on house and senate races and giving the dems speaker pelosi back and controlling house, senate and white house. The base is using this against romney. Gingrich is so bad he has the establishment freaked out and yet newt is using this to his advantage with very very conservative primary voters which he wins by 30 percent.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Problem is the media on the left won’t highlight the poll showing gingrich down 69-21 among women and the rush limbaugh’s of the world say the dems are scared of newt and the establishment is out to get him.
Then all the media shows is that south carolina republican primary voters lead by very conservative evangelical south carolina primary voters say newt gingrich is more electable. The MSM repeated this how gingrich is now seen as more electable even though newt is losing rural women voters to obama in the wall st journal poll.
The establishment fears republican women staying home and hurting them down ticket.
Newt is the only figure with such visability to be used as vessel against the establishment but whose baggage independents and women can’t stand.
The only problem is is gingrich decides to run again in 2016 after losing by mondale like fashion. He has such a big ego he could take the whole party down with him.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:48 pm
After Romney has won Florida by double digits, and won the other 7 pre Super Tuesday states, his national poll numbers will be just fine.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:51 pm
The crater of the SC loss.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
This will be a long fight until june to defeat gingrich. That is the best case scenario. Winner take all states from april to june favor mitt more. Mitt is still up 20 in california.
Alabama, mississippi, louisiania, tennessee, arkansas, georgia, kentucky, north carolina are all going to be bad results as the wall st journal poll showed newt up 65-28 in head to head matchup in the south. These voters went for huckabee when he had no momentum and had disappeared after losing south carolina.
A florida win is needed to turn the national numbers around. But don’t expect that it still won’t go all the way to june with a delegate fight.
Sharron angle, christine o’donnell, ken buck were a message sent that the base hates the gop establishment more than they hate the dems. They want Newt to win because they know he will lose and they fear romney winning. The limbaugh’s and palin’s of the world love having obama in the white house it is good business. They fear romney winning and having him sully the conservative brand. They are willing to hand obama scalia’s replacement and hand obama six supreme court justices and an obama court for the next 30 years.
The problem is the base wants to lose. They want to burn everything down.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:57 pm
It doesn’t matter, Mitt will win Florida and that will be the end of it. Mitt should do NO more debates and simply start racking up wins so the math becomes impossible. Nationally, Romney is looking at a double digit win in Florida, which will probably put him in the 40′s on a national level.
That being said, I find it HIGHLY disturbing that so many of my fellow Republicans have fallen for Newt the huckster. If Newt had somehow managed to win Florida, I think he would have gone on to be the nominee or some sort of brokered convention would have emerged. Our party needs to smarten up.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
@ Teemu
Colorado and Minnesota are caucus states. Caucus states favor the tea party activists. What is funny is romney benefited from this by being mccain’s opponent in 2008. For example mccain was barely won the washington state caucus but won the washington state primary by 30 percent. Just like Caucuses favored Obama.
Nevada should be good for romney even though it is a caucus. But PPP had Newt by 18 in the minnesota caucus. These are very lightly attended. Romney would do better in a colorado primary than a colorado caucus. Gingrich will use this to embarrass romney as he won all these caucuses by big numbers in 2008.
There are even more caucuses this year as for budget reasons missiouri and washington state switched from primaries to caucuses.
Maine even is scary from a caucus standpoint. Romney would win a maine primary but remember the tea party in maine is strong.
Then on feb 24 michigan should be good for romney but an arg poll has romney and gingrich tied in arizona.
January 27th, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Caucuses favor activists and “identity politics”. In every Mountain state and Western caucus, Romney being LDS is asset like “evangelical style” is asset in Iowa, it is also somewhat asset in some Great plains states.
Despite of dropping out of the race several days before and endorsing McCain, Romney did better in Washington caucuses (16%) than in South Carolina (15%) in 2008.
January 27th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
In 2008 Romney was 3rd in polls in Minnesota, but won the caucuses clearly by 20 points. Relatively to population other caucuses tend to have at least 3 to 4 times lower turnout than Iowa caucuses, even if the race is still competitive.
In 2008 Nevada caucuses the best poll got Romney’s victory margin over 22 points lower, RCP Nevada average was off by over 32 points.
The best Colorado caucus poll underpolled Romney’s victory margin by 22 points.
One Minnesota Republican poll showed McCain with 41 percent among Minnesota Republicans, with Huckabee second and Romney third. But caucus-goers actually favored Romney overwhelmingly and he won by almost 20 points.
Romney being LDS will be asset in Mountain states, Western caucuses, rather than liability like in Iowa. In the February caucuses, Ron Paul is probably bigger thread than Gingrich or Santoru
January 27th, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Arizona primary electorate was in 2008 according to exit polls 11% LDS, Romney lost only by 15 points despite it being McCain’s home state and primary was open for independents. There has been other Arizona polls where Romney has been dominating.
January 27th, 2012 at 1:18 pm
After Mitt wins Florida, he will magically head back up towards 40. Most of the nation isn’t even engaged in the nomination yet.
January 27th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
In Tennessee it is enough to keep the winner below 66.7% in congressional districts and popular vote to prevent winner taking all, and making the delegates be split, just having plurality isn’t enough like in SC. No one cares about Gingrich’s Georgia victory anymore than they care about Romney’s Massachusetts victory on the same day. Senator Tom Coburn has 70% so approval, Gingrich is “the main villain” of his book “Breach of Trust: How Washington Turns Outsiders Into Insiders”, he has already made several anti-Gingrich statements, once he starts to really hammer and expose Newt in his home state, I think Romney has decent change to win.
Super Tuesday also has some Western caucuses which could be nice for Romney, and Virginia will be nice free delegates. Ohio will be nice too hopefully.
January 27th, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Mitch,
You’re highly mistaken about Caucus states. They are organization states and Mitt gets his share among Tea Partiers. Maine is solid, Colorado is solid, and he did amazingly well last time in Minnesota.
This time Pawlenty, Coleman, Weber, and a lot of the other top names are with him.
January 27th, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Gingrich can win Minnesota.
January 27th, 2012 at 2:13 pm
the Mitt implosion continues
January 27th, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Let’s not forget that Newt is here mainly because of an angry answer to a moderator about his marital infidelity, he was left for dead before. My theory is, easy come, easy go. They’ll leave Newt just as quickly as they jumped aboard. he just needs a good public humiliation.
If Romney wins by double digits, his national numbers go into the 40s, the big bundlers start raising the big bucks for him, and his opponents will be wandering in the wilderness with nothing but campaign debt and no televised debates.
January 27th, 2012 at 2:24 pm
As Mitt supporter I am quite confident he gets the nod. I haven’t been worried since he basically tied in Iowa. There simply isn’t anybody that is in a position to challenge him. You see gingrich struggling mighty to but he doesn’t have the support and organizatoin needed to do so.
romney truly is the only choice at this point if we are serious about beating obama.
January 27th, 2012 at 3:04 pm
#12 Common Cents: Fortunately for Mitt, there are no more debates scheduled for more than 3 weeks, during which time there will be a primary and four caucuses.
But I don’t think Mitt can start skipping debates until either he has mathematically clinched the nomination or he has only one other rival. If Newt and Paul show up for a debate without Mitt (I assume Rick will drop out), the debate will still get held, and the candidates and moderator will spend the time bashing Mitt for being too chicken to participate.
January 27th, 2012 at 3:28 pm
It’s over for Willard, gang. You willardbots are gonna have to get right with that fact.
Super Tuesday will be a wipeout. I suspect this coming Tuesday in Florida is going to give you all a preview of it. Keep the liquor cabinet stocked, would be my recommendation.
You all backed a bad candidate. A very bad candidate.
January 27th, 2012 at 4:52 pm
The Gallup poll does not reflect the reality of Mitt’s performance, especially since most of those polled will not be voting, and many of these are just pinheads responding to the dishonest attack ads from Newt’s PAC, the one financed by Newt’s casino magnate friend.
129.4 million people voted in the 2008 general.
121 million people voted in the 2004 general.
101 million people voted in the 2000 general.
94 million people voted in the 1996 general.
January 28th, 2012 at 2:22 am
Newt has wone it because he deserves to win it.Anybody who doubts it can just take an ordinary look at his debates in anywhere at anytime.He is the only one who is a true persidential desrveing candidate