SurveyUSA Tampa-St. Petersburg 2012 GOP Presidential Debate Poll
Who won the debate? Or, was there no clear winner?
- Newt Gingrich 34%
- Mitt Romney 26%
- Ron Paul 11%
- Rick Santorum 5%
- No Clear Winner 24%
Did the debate help you make up your mind about how or whether you will vote in the primary? Did the debate make it harder for you to make up your mind? Or did the debate have no effect either way?
- Debate helped 47%
- Debate made it harder 9%
- Debate had no effect 41%
Survey of 179 Republican debate watchers in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota, Florida designated market area was conducted January 24, 2012. The margin of error for the full sample of 310 debate watchers is +/- 5.7 percentage points.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
January 25th, 2012 at 12:20 am
There is a hidden bias in this poll.
Candidates who go negative will never be named the winner by the viewers.
The goal of going negative is to change the narrative of the race and raise doubts about your opponent, which Mitt accomplished.
I’d like to see how their VOTES changed from before the debate until after. I’ll bet Gingrich lost support among them.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:20 am
Wow.
so much for the conventional wisdom on this site.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:20 am
In a political sense, Romney clearly won the debate. He slaughtered the Noot, and it changed the narrative drastically.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:23 am
Teflon Newt!
January 25th, 2012 at 12:27 am
I don’t see how these people could think Gingrich won when Romney practically silenced Gingrich for a whole 10 seconds because he couldn’t think of anything to say(That looks much worse than Mitt’s flubbing the tax return question).
January 25th, 2012 at 12:27 am
Actually Mitt was just a couple points above ‘No clear winner’ and that is about as ‘moderate’ a result as one could hope for.
All this winners and losers business seems so extreme and divisive.
Pale pastels and soft music…and NO applause please, we’re moderates!
January 25th, 2012 at 12:29 am
@ Tele
A debate is not a college football game. If you want to scream, cheer or boo someone go watch a game. General election debates will not include audience participation(will Gingrich skip those)? Makes one wonder.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:29 am
INTRADE
FLORIDA.GINGRICH
Newt Gingrich to win the 2012
Florida Primary: Trade 58.3 +1.7
FLORIDA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to win the 2012
Florida Primary Trade: 40.6 -2.3
January 25th, 2012 at 12:30 am
179 people in Tampa Bay?
January 25th, 2012 at 12:31 am
Google Q score
there’s your trouble.
I know you guys will probably blame this on the low intellect of the voters…
But that’s not really helpful
to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld
You hold elections with the voters you have.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:45 am
Floridians must be watching re-runs of the South Carolina debates.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:46 am
teledude,
The only thing worse than moderates, is moderates that pretend they are conservatives. Like Gingrich, who has eagerly supported (and in a few cases prostituted himself in DC for) every major cause of the expansion of our debt in the last decade.
The fool would probably invade Iran and bailout Europe if made President. Not to mention “take action to prevent climate change”. We’re bankrupting our future and this Rockefeller Republican and liberal internationalist has never run across a harebrained scheme he didn’t like.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:52 am
If facebook signups are any indication of popularity, I took note that in two days Mitt’s facebook page signed up 10,842 likes compared to Gingrich’s 4,140 likes.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:56 am
I realize for you guys this is all about beating Mitt Romney.
Romney certainly to me does not seem to be someone who will change things. His supporters believe otherwise but I just don’t see a record that suggests otherwise.
But you want to beat him with a guy whose only attachment to conservatism is to sell conservatives on his “pragmatic” liberal-tinged schemes? He knows how to sell himself wonderfully, but let’s be honest, there’s not much Gingrich wouldn’t sell for power.
You are trying to beat Romney with a guy that is everything you supposedly hate about Romney.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:25 am
Hahahaha! Go Newt
January 25th, 2012 at 2:33 am
2– indeed
As I said that night : short the CW
January 25th, 2012 at 3:45 am
MPC – wise words my friend.
Watching the tea party and conservative base go crazy over everything they have said they are against, gives me a good chuckle. The snake oil salesman has them hook, line, and sinker.
January 25th, 2012 at 5:13 am
Six points? That’s it? The fundamentally greatest and most brilliantly tranformational golden-tongued debater ever to debate fundamentally tranformational big ideas in a nation desperately seeking a fundamentally transformational great vision million dollar-an-hour freddie mac Christian historian to lead it to a fundamentally transformational Newt Era of awesomely great ideas, only beat the uninspiring tongue-tied and stammering Massachusetts moderate Mormon-cultish RINO by six points in a southern state filled with Mormon-hating evangelicals, and with the benefit a media tail wind to boot? Whatever.
January 25th, 2012 at 6:05 am
Are Teledude and Craig for nothing one and the same people ? Their views seem identical. They must meet secretively and are members of secret society with a special handshake. What on earth will they possibly do when the campaign is over ????
January 25th, 2012 at 6:32 am
I see that Newt the cry baby has frightened CNN into packing the Jacksonville house with S. Georgia sycophants who will watch and wait for their stage direction. Everybody…..watch Newt roll his eyes and glance at the audience after a periodic pearl of disjointed erudition, reminding these dullards that it is time to clap and cheer. Once more, the stage is set…
Drum roll from CNN………..about America wants to know
Introduction and recommended sample from CNN……..”Hi, I’m Wolf Blitzer and I like to fish.”
Opening question to Newt Gingrich………….”You seem to dislike the news media, Mr. Speaker. Could you tell us what we do wrong ?” Audience Queue for initial hoot and clap
Gingrich opening monologue about the state of America, its historic relationship to colonial Belgian interests and Romney’s involvement by hiding his taxes.
Second audience queue..
Gingrich eye roll and gesture… Audience stands up and cheers
Gingrich modestly smiles, after the style of Louis XVI, and accepts cheers and applause. Demonstrably humble
Some time with other candidates
Back to Gingrich. Video flashes on rapturous audience and Callista with semi- Mona Lisa smile. ( What does she know ???). She watches intently to make sure Newt is still on
stage and not off somewhere for a quickie.
Lengthy iteration of Gingrich accomplishments
Helped Reagan create 30 million jobs as Congressman from small rural district in West Georgia………..Applause
Helped Reagan win cold war. Ecstatic applause. Clamors for 5th president on Mt Rushmore
Coined term Glasnost
Great friend of Barry Goldwater….before he became State Chair for Rockefeller
Modest wealth acquired from historical consulting to WSJ, Rupert Murdoch, 19 pharmaceutical companies…. Shrieks of audience
CNN interrupts with follow up . Gingrich audience glance and more shrieks and boos
Founded pharmaceutical think tank worth % 55 million, selling history lessons to big Pharma
Helped debt issue by donating $ 300,000 to House Ethics Committee to help defray costs associated with their Gingrich witch hunt. Borrows money from Sen. Bob Dole
Helped charities by donating 1.5 % of 15 % of his total earnings. Rest of money earned was not his, but Callista’s Media company
Created solutions to housing crisis for Freddie Mac that they refused to use during 8 year consulting career.
Developed plans to go to MARS using Freddie Mac structure. Wailing from audience.
CNN remembers other candidates. Gingrich eye roll
Gingrich reminds CNN that he only answers questions he likes and doesn’t intend to respond to questions that are a waste of time. Loud applause
CNN asks other candidates questions.
Gingrich asks for at least 7 three hour Lincoln Douglas debates with Obama, . Calender is filled with intended debates. Audience applauds. Obama laughs
Newt reminds CNN that time is up
Watch and see
CraigS
January 25th, 2012 at 7:03 am
I’ve been leaning towards voting for Santorum, but I have a couple of family members and some friends that live in Florida that watched the debate. A couple of them were leaning towards Romney, but they were really turned off by him in the last debate. They both said he didn’t look comfortable attacking Gingrich and it looked desperate.
January 25th, 2012 at 7:03 am
Anyone who thinks someone can just win a debate by throwing saying lies about to others over and over needs to get a clue.
Newt won that debate hands down, the Rombots are just fooling themselves.
January 25th, 2012 at 7:11 am
This survey is of 179 Republicans. Ain’t much of a sample, and it doesn’t tell us if they’re registered, or likely to vote. The MOE is probably about 20.
January 25th, 2012 at 7:14 am
Of course, then we get Maverick’s anecdotal evidence, and I suppose we could add two more and get to 181, and now it’s like 55% of Republicans thought Newt won the debate.
HEY! Newt was so embarrassed and upset the next day that he threatened to pull out of the next debate altogether if he didn’t get his way and reinstall his cheerleading section.
So put Newt in the “Romney won” column, and were back down to 40% think he won, with an MOE of 20 points still.
This is not a very serious poll.
January 25th, 2012 at 7:19 am
21
You have a habit of making up lies to convince yourself and others that Romney is doing poorly. It’s a pattern and it suggests mental instability. Get well, kiddo.
January 25th, 2012 at 7:58 am
The new Qunnipiac poll for Florida is out
Romney 36 %
Newt 34 %
Santorum 13 %
Paul 10%
Survey of 601 likely Republican voters from Jan 19 -23. Margin of error 4%.
Dead heat.
January 25th, 2012 at 8:03 am
Gingrich up 6 points though = momentum
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/01/q-poll-mitt-romney-36-newt-gingrich-34-but-gingrich-leads-by-6-among-lively-voters-who-havent-cast-b.html
January 25th, 2012 at 8:13 am
25. I think your problem is similar to that of Romney’s. Instead of having a fruitful and honest discussion of the issues you attack those people that have a differing opinion.
Based on your response it would seem that a lot of people quoting you “have a habit of making up lies to convince yourself and others that Romney is doing poorly”.
January 25th, 2012 at 8:16 am
26
Half of this poll was before Newt crushed Mitt in SC. Why is this good news?
If Mitt doesn’t manage to win the next debate hands down, I think he loses Florida.
Can Mitt still recover if he loses Florida? Yes. Will it be easy… absolutely not. Gingrich will have the clear advantage, despite having no money or organization to speak of going forward.
January 25th, 2012 at 8:19 am
Florida Qunnipiac Poll– “The final tally is 36 percent for Romney to 34 percent for Gingrich among likely voters in the Florida Republican presidential primary, but Gingrich gets 40 percent to 34 percent for Romney among likely voters surveyed after the South Carolina primary.”
January 25th, 2012 at 8:19 am
That Q poll is great. Romney has a great lead in early voting, voting that took place before the SC primary. And since then he is still leading by 2 points. All Romney needs to do is win this race, doesn’t matter if it is by 24 votes, he’ll get all the delegates and the weather vane voters will swing back to Romney for Nevada, AZ, and MI. Fight hard Mitt!
January 25th, 2012 at 8:21 am
29.
Yes, half was taken before Romney crushed Newt in Iowa and NH and Newt crushed Romney in SC. It’s good news specifically because half of the recorded days are after SC and Romney hasn’t lost any ground in this poll, he is in the exact same position.
People keep forgetting that there are already over 180,000 absentee ballots and over 50,000 early votes in the can. These will likely tend to favor Romney heavily and could give him a 2 -3% edge on top of whatever polls we are looking at.
This is the third poll in 2 days that shows that the race is extremely tight and not Newt does not have the huge lead that early polls showed.
We’ll see how it goes.
January 25th, 2012 at 8:26 am
The absentee ballots will make up about 2% or 3% of the total vote according to experts. Not much of an advantage.
January 25th, 2012 at 8:28 am
33.
In a close race such as this one, it is a very big advantage.
January 25th, 2012 at 8:32 am
I mean’t 2% point advantage. I predict Gingrich will win by at least 6%. Probably more.
January 25th, 2012 at 8:44 am
32
How many votes are usually cast in Florida? A couple million?? (I’m asking because I really don’t know.)
Mitt needs to win the next debate.
I’m just being synical since our electorate seems determined to nominate the most entertaining candidate rather than the one who could actually solve some of our problems and do a good job – never mind the fact that Newt would get destroyed by Obama.
January 25th, 2012 at 8:57 am
36. Exactly. Mitt needs an acting coach and to curse at the media. These are not debates anymore then world wrestling federation is wrestling. The electorate wants to be entertained not informed.
January 25th, 2012 at 10:05 am
Mitt should fire his new debate coach. If Bachmann’s poll numbers kept sliding using the same debate coach… it should tell you something.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:07 am
MOE on this poll is +/- 5.7%, so theoretically the actual results could be:
Newt: 34 – 5% = 29%
Mitt: 26 + 5% = 31%
Also, which debate were these people watching? I give Santy a clear win, closely followed by Mitt, then a gap to Paul, with Newt at the bottom. These folks need to get back on their meds.