For the first time in modern political history, the first three states have chosen three different winners in the Republican primary. (Which means, also, for the first time in modern political history a candidate has won South Carolina after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire.)
I’m beginning to think Newt is actually a zombie, reanimating over and over again when people write his political obituary. For sure, the sane elements of the Republican Party have been wishing for his political death ever since last summer when a vast majority of his campaign staff quit in disgust of a man who couldn’t organize his way out of a paper bag or maintain a focus or vision for longer than it takes Barack Obama to say, “Look…”
My friends from the left side of the political spectrum are literally celebrating tonight in glee over Newt Gingrich’s victory in South Carolina. And it makes sense. Newt Gingrich’s approval rating sits at 27% among Americans at the moment. (Apparently, all 27% live in South Carolina.) Nominating this guy would be a nightmare scenario for the Republican Party, not just in 2012 but for many election cycles to come. Just as we were negatively branded ‘the party of George Bush’ in 2006 and 2008, we would be branded ‘the party of Newt Gingrich’ in 2012, 2014, and probably into 2016 (unless the all-star lineup of benchwarmers we’ve got now actually decided to get in the race next time and made a positive impression on the American people — but even with that they would start at a disadvantage).
However… I’ve told my friends tonight not to celebrate too much. Mitt Romney will still, ultimately, win the nomination. Fourteen days ago, when everyone thought Mitt Romney had won Iowa by 8 votes, I wrote this here on Race:
if Romney doesn’t finish off Gingrich and Santorum in South Carolina or Florida, he will finish them off on Super Tuesday, March 6. The race will not go beyond that date. Romney is set up to sweep the February caucuses and primaries and, more importantly, is the only one left in the race with any semblance of organizational structure.
Of course, Gingrich and Santorum may be able to stop Romney in Virginia… oh, wait…
And ten days ago, after Romney’s huge win in New Hampshire, I wrote this:
South Carolina does still represent Romney’s biggest challenge to date. Gingrich still looks remarkably strong there even after a couple of incredibly rough defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney’s lead in most SC polls is in the single digits. And a massive onslaught of negative advertisement is heading in Mitt’s general direction. There is the possibility that someone upsets Romney in South Carolina. If they do, then Romney’s competitors get an extended lease on life until Super Tuesday. If they don’t, this race will be over on Jan 21.
I stand firmly behind both of those predictions. And it’s not difficult to understand why. In terms of money, Gingrich raised just $9 million in Q4. Romney has more than twice that much just in cash on hand totals (Gingrich’s cash on hand totals are likely to be roughly half that $9 million – or less – after factoring in the millions he paid in campaign advertisements that didn’t help leading up to Iowa). Romney raised over $24 million last quarter and has no debt; Gingrich, on the other hand, is still toting around over a million dollars in debt. And it is incredibly difficult to imagine Gingrich’s fundraising picture being bright as he placed fourth place in Iowa and fifth place in South Carolina.
Of course, his fundraising will get a boost now that he has won South Carolina. But it won’t be enough to match Romney’s advantage in the area. Newt will have to be very selective in choosing which parts of Florida to compete in; as has been mentioned on this blog by many different authors, Florida has eight different media markets and costs well over a million dollars to competently run a single TV ad. Newt will find it difficult to play statewide like Romney will — and setting out a coherent, organized, and focused strategy has never been anywhere close to one of Gingrich’s strengths.
So Gingrich has that working against him. He also has Romney’s strength in Florida working against him as well. Gingrich was able to turn a 3- to 5-point Romney lead into a 12-point Gingrich victory in South Carolina. (The largest Romney’s lead ever got on the RCP average was 8 points.) But that was a small lead in a state that everyone knew at the beginning of last year would be one of Romney’s most difficult. Now we pivot to Florida, which Romney nearly won four years ago — even after losing Iowa and South Carolina. In fact, in the last three polls there, Romney has leads of 22, 24, and 26 points. Even with a surge of momentum from South Carolina, Gingrich will find it difficult to cut down those size of leads. More importantly, Romney has built a campaign infrastructure in Florida that is simply and objectively second-to-none. His statewide organization is impeccable, representing much more time, effort, and resources than he ever invested into South Carolina.
Beyond money, Romney’s strength in Florida, and the organizational mismatch, Gingrich also has something much more important working against him: the Republican Party hates him. Perhaps not the Church of the Loud and Angry Conservative primary voters, but the actual Republican Party machine will now pull out all the stops to end Gingrich’s career once and for all. As the esteemed Larry Sabato put it tonight:
Expect a flood of establishment endorsements for Romney before Florida. Republicans that might have to share the ballot with Newt in November are terrified.
And for good reason. Newt is about to find himself to be the loneliest winner of the South Carolina Republican primary history has ever known. Now that Gingrich has shown himself to be capable of actually winning something rather than just making a whole lot of noise, the Party will coalesce around Mitt Romney to stop him, just as they coalesced around John McCain in the final days of the 2008 primary season. Expect a rash of endorsements now for Romney, which equals a rash of new surrogates and campaigners.
And finally, perhaps the biggest thing Romney has going for him at the moment – and that Gingrich has working against him – is the primary calendar. Everyone knew when the Nevada caucuses chose to move their contest back to February that January was going to be Romney’s toughest month in this competition by far. Well, once Florida is in the rearview mirror, the calendar is coming up all Romney:
Romney is the heavy favorite to win every one of those contests. Eight victories in a row heading into Super Tuesday on March 6. The fact that five of the eight are caucuses helps, since Gingrich couldn’t organize his way out of a paper bag. The fact that Gingrich isn’t even on the Missouri ballot also helps (even though the primary is non-binding, it will still get headlines and be mentioned in with Romney’s victory in CO and MN that night and the next morning).
That’s a whole lot of positive press for Romney, and a long time for Gingrich to go without a win. And once it gets to Super Tuesday, let’s take a look at what Gingrich is up against:
If somebody can explain how in the world Newt Gingrich can stay in the race after losing eight in a row during February and then winning only two states on Super Tuesday (one of which is his home state), I’m all ears.
Newt’s victory tonight in South Carolina was impressive. Twelve points is a huge margin, and especially so for someone who placed fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire.
My advice to Newt Gingrich is this: enjoy the high while it lasts. Because as I wrote ten days ago, all you’ve done is delay the inevitable.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Let’s start with this:
“ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Newt up big on the first day of our Minnesota poll on the GOP side…we may really be in for a wild ride in the coming months”
Organization does matter in the MN Caucus. But if Newt is crushing Mitt in the MN polls…well….Organzations can’t make up for surges.
I also disagree with your assement in regards to the MIZZ primary. It will get no attention…zero….pure beauty contest in the midst of contests that have binding delegates attached to them
IMO.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Excellent analysis!! Brilliant.
There is much hope left.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:29 pm
Smack, the polls showed McCain way up in the polls in Minnesota up to Super Tuesday. Romney took a very solid victory there nonetheless.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:31 pm
#1 and #3 — yep, polling in Minnesota a week out from their caucus showed McCain with like a 20 or 30 point lead over everyone in the state.
Romney ended up beating everybody by 20 points. Ignore Minnesota polls. Especially from PPP.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Actually, I could see it going until the end of March, it really depends on how egotistical Newt is. Assuming your scenario is accurate – and I think it probably is – Newt could still come out on stage on March 6th and say “we’re going to keep fighting – we’re going to stand for what we believe in”….and stay in another week, when Alabama and Mississippi vote, and he could potentially win both. maybe. If he doesn’t, he drops out then. If he does, he’ll still lose Illinois at the end of March, and in that case, the race will be over.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:35 pm
You fail to take into account three important factors:
1) Big Mo – Newt is going into FL with enough momentum to pull within 5-9 pts by the middle of next week, particularly because SC voters deemed him more electable than Romney;
2) Free Media – Newt’s win is the biggest political story so far and he will earn a ton of free press, much more than he could ever afford. And much of it will be positive because he won whereas the coverage of Romney will focus on his monumental collapse;
3) Superpac reload – Word is Gingrich’s casino sugardaddy is ready to refill the superpac’s coffers with $10 million (according to NBC). That will be enough for Gingrich to be competitive on the air.
I predict Newt will be make up tremendous ground in FL rather quickly and the only question will be whether he can hold any lead he captures.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Like I said in the official SC open thread, Newt’s bounce might not be as big as conventional wisdom says for two reasons:
1.) It’s Saturday. Lots of people tune out the news over the weekend. By the time folks get back into their weekly schedule on Monday, it’ll already be 2 days since the primary.
2.) The State of the Union- The President’s SOTU Address on Tuesday will freeze the race for two days. Tuesday in anticipation of what the President is going to say and Wednesday hashing over what he saidd. Attention will shift back to Washington for a couple of days.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:41 pm
I hope that Romney wins this by becoming a better candidate and not simply buying or muscling his way out of his weaknesses.
He lost SC because he looked like a weak nominee. His tax-issues, his Bain issues, his awkwardness.
All of it contributed to voters seeing him as a weak candidate.
Newt helped himself only by consolidating voters who aren’t in Romney’s corner.
If Romney wants to win in November he can’t win the primary by destroying Newt. Romney has to win by addressing his own glaring weaknesses and becoming a better candidate that Republicans would want to support, not just settle for.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:41 pm
“Just as we were negatively branded ‘the party of George Bush’ in 2006 and 2008, we would be branded ‘the party of Newt Gingrich’ in 2012, 2014, and probably into 2016″
The Democrats successfully ran against Newt Gingrich in 1996 and 1998. I think they were still running against him in 2000. Those old enough to remember know that they did to Newt what we’ve done to Pelosi.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:43 pm
“I predict Newt will be make up tremendous ground in FL rather quickly and the only question will be whether he can hold any lead he captures.”
I don’t know. I could see him pulling within, perhaps, 10……but the thing we really saw tonight was that, well, Southerners like Southerners. And Florida isn’t necessarily a Southern state. Sure, Newt could surge, particularly in the panhandle. But how well does that “Massachusetts moderate” rhetoric really go over with a 60-something retired factory worker from the industrial great lakes region?
January 21st, 2012 at 11:50 pm
Newt is going to waste my tax dollars big time. He must be stopped.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:51 pm
Dede Scozzafava.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:51 pm
Newt at the top of the ticket (or bottom) would be a gift to the Democrats this fall. I’m confident Romney can pull this off and even more so that Gingrich will find a way to implode.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:51 pm
#10 – Matthew,
Gingrich will adjust his rhetoric for the midwest. Right now he is appealing to FL’s conservatives, thinking that if he can run up the numbers there he can afford to lose the moderates to Romney.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:51 pm
•Ohio primary (lean Romney)
•Tennessee primary (lean Romney)
RLOL!
January 21st, 2012 at 11:52 pm
“If Romney wants to win in November he…has to win by…becoming a better candidate that Republicans would want to support, not just settle for.”
Don’t be so sure. While many Romney supporters are refusing to back Gingrich, even in the general, I think there could be an argument to be made (a good one) that Gingrich’s supporters, as a whole, wouldn’t be so resistant. Criticisms of Gingrich are primarily over character…an issue on which would can legitimately, even as an ardent Conservative, compare him with Obama and end up siding with the latter. But attacks on Romney are on positions, whether he is really a “true Conservative”. Even if he isn’t, he is still infinitely better in this category than the President (as is Newt).
Do you think that many Gingrich voters would stay home?
January 21st, 2012 at 11:54 pm
Watch Newt pull a straight..
SC/FL/NV!!!
January 21st, 2012 at 11:54 pm
“Gingrich will adjust his rhetoric for the midwest. Right now he is appealing to FL’s conservatives”
I’m sorry, I should have made myself more clear. I’m talking about the swarms of retired midwesterners who are IN FLORIDA.
Gingrich can use his firebrand rhetoric to win the Southerners in the panhandle, but if it doesn’t translate into significant extra support in the central and southern part of the state, it won’t do much good.
January 21st, 2012 at 11:59 pm
Craig,
A straight is five cards, not three.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:02 am
Gingrich isn’t going to win Nevada. Its a caucus state. And there are lots of Mormons out there.
Final poll for Nevada Caucus, 2008 (coming off a big loss for Romney in New Hampshire):
Final Results:
Romney exceeded his expected support by 17%.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:02 am
#16 I think Romney’s problems in winning over Republicans aren’t only because he’s been a moderate but because his natural political skills are lacking. He’s a good fit for upscale Massachusetts voters but not for the rest of the nation.
Romney would find his weaknesses hurting him more with independents (who vote on personality) than Republicans (who vote on ideology).
Romney needs to try to work on his own weaknesses because his inability to wrap up this primary is mostly due to his own problems and not what the other candidates did.
Those weaknesses would still be in the general making him an easy target for Obama. Romney needs to work on his perceived insincerity, his difficulty in persuasion, and some of his unappealing personal attributes.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:04 am
#18 – Ah. I think Gingrich is going for conservatives/tea party/evangelicals, the base of the GOP. Romney’s task will be trying to get to Gingrich’s right and take some of those votes away. If I am not mistaken, the winner of SC has also won FL going back to 1980, and that is in part because there is significant overlap in the electorates. Gingrich thus only needs to implement his SC gameplan in FL.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:08 am
Gingrich thus only needs to implement his SC gameplan in FL.
If he does, he’s toast. The South Carolina primary consisted of 65% evangelical voters and nearly 40% of voters who described themselves as “very conservative.”
Florida, on the other hand, in 2008 had 39% evangelical voters and 27% who were “very conservative”.
Florida is not South Carolina, and the same strategy is not going to work there. (Thanks to Larry Sabato for the numbers.)
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:18 am
Mitt just needs to release the stupid tax returns. That’s the issue that’s killing him. Just get them out there! There is no shame in success.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:18 am
Since the court threw out he map, texas is push back correct?
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:22 am
24 I’m not really sure why evangelicals would even support Gingrich? He isn’t exactly the incarnation of the moral majority. I wouldn’t even call him moral. South Carolina should take a second look at this guy.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:23 am
I also have to agree with the logic that…quite frankly, Newt’s “free media” isn’t going to be remotely as beneficial.
When Romney won New Hampshire, it was on a Tuesday. People woke up wednesday morning for work, and say it on TV, and heard about it as they were driving, and read it online when they got to their desks. For the next week, it was all about Mitt winning. There were no other big events.
In contrast, Gingrich wins on a Saturday. People are sleeping in tomorrow, some will watch the sunday shows (Romney is appearing, I think Newt cancelled), but most will sleep in, or go to church. Then they’ll come home and watch football. Monday, I expect, Romney will release his tax records – which probably don’t contain jack squat. Monday night is the debate. Could Gingrich do well? Sure. So Could Romney – particularly since the tax issue will be gone. Then Tuesday is already a couple days past, and its time for the State of the Union.
And while we’ll hear a lot of “Romney trying to recover from the SC loss”, it won’t have the same impact.
Gingrich will have to build this on his own, without the help of Mitt’s tax issue, and without the moderators helping him.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:27 am
I think most Dems are laughing at the GOP right now, but others might not be so sure. Seeing Newt walk onto a debate stage is like seeing a gazelle show up in a lion’s grassy turf: You know someone is about to get f’ed, and f’ed hard. And in the general election, Obama’s going to be the only other guy on stage.
Beyond that, well, Newt is about the farthest thing you can get from Mr. Nice Guy. He’s literally the anti-McCain. And in addition, he’s very cold and calculating. Every single thing the Gingrich campaign does, down to the smallest brochure, will be designed solely to rip Obama a new one.
The only reason the Obama campaign doesn’t already openly admit they fear Newt is because they still think they can stomp him with a barrage of “blah blah mean to his wife etc” rhetoric. They don’t understand that ABC News’ actions and his fits at the debates in the last few days have effectively taken that stuff off the table. You can’t detonate the same nuke twice. People know about his marital record and they simply don’t care. It’s unfortunate to say this as a Romney supporter and tonight really made me realized how little faith I have in American voters.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:28 am
Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik, University of Virginia Center for Politics:
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:28 am
“Mitt just needs to release the stupid tax returns.”
Its pretty much guaranteed that he’ll have to. Like I’ve said, I think thats a damn shame, because the only reason there is so much pressure on him is because they want to rifle through to demonize him for being rich – showing that the GOP still contains a nasty socialist (if only for political convenience) streak.
But I also think that, once they come out, they’re going to be a complete flop. We already know his tax rate, we already know he gives away a ton to his church and charities, and we already know he’s rich. We even know he LEGALLY parks some money in the Cayman Islands.
But sure, to get it over with and satisfy the prying eyes, Monday would be best.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:29 am
Good god..Looking over the numbers. Mitt got 4000 more votes than Huckabee did in (08) Greensville country, did not win one delagate..
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:30 am
In 2008, Florida was basically the end of Romney’s campaign. Instead of fighting it, he decided to back McCain. Like last time, the loser of Florida will find it very difficult to stay afloat, whether it be Romney or Gingrich. However, I think this will be a fight to the end. It will go all the way to the convention because the supporters of each candidate think their candidate walks on water while they think their opponent is evil incarnate. This attitude may spill over to the candidates as well, which might result in the winner not getting the support of the loser. Being a Romney supporter, naturally I feel that if Romney gets the nomination, Gingrich will not be able to let go of his ego and wouldn’t support Romney in the general and may even run third party. If Gingrich wins, like last time, Romney will support him, but not as wholeheartedly as he supported McCain, and Gingrich will fail in the General.
Either way, it could end up being a fatal blow to the Republican party.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:30 am
“What Gingrich now needs is for Rick Santorum to drop out of the race so the conservative vote can consolidate.”
Except that PPP has said the support splits evenly for Romney and Gingrich.
And Santorum is at least as likely to back Mitt.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:31 am
I’m no Newt fan, but Romney supporters are getting down right nasty now that their guy didn’t win. You should read Jennifer Rubin’s twitter feed tonight, she is frothing at the mouth with bile.
Calling people that disagree with you insane? Reactionary? Dunce? Insult your readers, good idea.
Romney is starting to look like a stammering lightweight. He can’t defend himself or conservatism.
My hope is that Romney is unable to seal the deal after Super Tuesday and the GOP bigwigs decide not to lay down for Newt, but rather to back a viable alternative like a Daniels or Jindal.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:31 am
I would associate myself with these remarks:
“Romney needs to try to work on his own weaknesses because his inability to wrap up this primary is mostly due to his own problems and not what the other candidates did.
Those weaknesses would still be in the general making him an easy target for Obama. Romney needs to work on his perceived insincerity, his difficulty in persuasion, and some of his unappealing personal attributes.”
Right on econ grad stud!
The idea of prolonging this race is to strengthen our candidates, not see how nasty and personally destructive they can be to one another.
If Mitt wins by tearing down Newt there will be a lot of resentment and he already has a problem with the party base.
Far better for him to win over our support…and he has so many advantages I can’t figure out why he struggles to do so.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:34 am
I don’t think Mitt will release his taxes. The problem is, he’s got too much money. He probably has money offshore and that’s not going to look very good. So, I expect he will have some trouble with this issue. I don’t think Mitt did anything illegal, but the media loves to envy what they don’t have. Mitt knows that, and so he doesn’t want to release them until the primary season is over.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:34 am
Newt is getting tons of help from the media. Faux news is propping him up as their candidate. Drives me nuts. I think the gap will close tremendously in Fl and he could pull it off.
Romney needs to debate well, not release taxes so that the issue comes up again and he can hit it out of the park. Like Huckabee said, “I will release my taxes when I’m good and ready.” And he could continue: Yes, I am wealthy and successful. Yes, I could work in the private sector this year and make another 20-40 million, but this is not about me! This is about getting people back to work and ending Obama’s detour. This is about Obama’s failed policies. And, continue to rack on Obama….
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:36 am
“My hope is that Romney is unable to seal the deal after Super Tuesday and the GOP bigwigs decide not to lay down for Newt, but rather to back a viable alternative like a Daniels or Jindal.”
Daniels excites only hardline politicos who have a disconnect from joe sixpack who wants to watch the packers or the Big 10. Jindal IS the stammering lightweight. Remember the SOTU response?
This idea that a brokered convention will somehow produce a Conservative messiah who will ride to victory against Obama is the same kind of thoughtless dream that produced FOTM after FOTM. Its an orgy of fantasy for those who live eyeballs deep in politics.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:37 am
Reagan to Gingrich..
Newt Gingrich Wins South Carolina Primary By Uniting Reagan Republicans
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:39 am
broken convention would not work…Only thing I see is that Romney drops out and Christine runs with Mitt is a vote for me (untill you get into states where he can get the ticket.)
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:39 am
I predict Friday Night news dump for Romney taxes. He’s going to have to address it sooner or later, but unfortunately it won’t be completely on his terms. Friday nights are always popular for unpopular news.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:40 am
“The problem is, he’s got to much money. He probably has money offshore and that’s not going to look very good.”
But none of this is news…we already know about it. We know Mitt is rich, and people have even estimated his wealth. Quite frankly, if a person is going to hate you for having $300 million, he’s going to hate you for have $30 million.
I despise that such hate exists in our own party, and that Romney’s personal privacy isn’t being respected by the greedy bastards who hate him for his money, but releasing his taxes isn’t going to change anything in that regard.
If Romney had won tonight (and I don’t think the result had anything to do with his taxes), I would have agreed that he should hold out. The same way I would have agreed he should have skipped the future debates.
Unfortunately, the Southerners went for the closest think to a Good ‘ol Boy they could find, and denied him the luxury of doing either.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:41 am
“I predict Friday Night news dump for Romney taxes. He’s going to have to address it sooner or later, but unfortunately it won’t be completely on his terms. Friday nights are always popular for unpopular news.”
Nah, release them monday. That way it won’t come up in the debate.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:44 am
#40 Matthew: Agreed. No point in letting another debate go by with Mitt having to defend not releasing tax returns.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:46 am
One thing that wasn’t mentioned in this post is that Gingrich did indeed have a commanding lead in Florida just a couple months back, during the first Gingrich surge.
He was polling in the 50s – it might have been the largest lead for any candidate in any poll in any state I’ve seen this cycle.
Of course that all changed as the momentum went to Romney. But it’s way too earlier to say Romney is a lock for Florida. Let’s see what the numbers look like by the middle of next week.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:46 am
Romney will release his taxes and his charitable giving is going to kill him. He’ll look like a cultist for teh amount that he gives. He’s not spending his money. He probably has complicated arrangements, trusts, etc., and his passion is his faith. That’s where his money is likely headed. I think a large portion of the Republican base will look at that and think “Scientology weird”. They won’t admire his generosity. Newt knows all this. He knows what a handicap Mitt’s faith is. And he maintains plausible deniability.
Newt gave 2% of his income, and people are goinig to privately think, “Yeah, that’s like me.”
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:55 am
1 – Just like the non- binding caucus in Iowa gets no attention, right?
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:56 am
I think Mormons have some type of persecution complex.
Everyone knows Mitt is a Mormon.
Everyone knows he gives generously to his church.
That is a commendable thing. Noble. Charitable. Good in every way.
I do not get this issue at all. Must be more code words and I’m too dumb to crack the code.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:03 am
31 – And the pro-newt Santorum vote has already largely migrated to Newt.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:03 am
tele, Mitt just lost big in South Carolina, and his biggest hiccup of the week was over his tax returns. My guess is that long ago Mitt put into place charitable giving to the Church that isn’t really reversible.
A very large portion of folks hold Mormons to be about the same sort as Scientologists. (Yeah, I guess I’m smearing them here, and I’m sorry folks, I’m making a comparison.)
I’m an LDS Chaplain, and I was deployed to Iraq. Chaplains were mostly kind to me, but not all. One told me he would rather have witnessed the Priests of Baal cavorting in the temple of God than to see a Mormon in the Chaplaincy. One blew up in my face and in a raised voice expressed his anger that Romney would seriously damage the Republican down-ballot if he were to get the nomination. I just asked him what he thought of Romney since I knew he was politically involved and engaged.
I think Mitt’s made a little progress, but it’s a hard slog. I think I’ve come by my skepticism about the generosity of our base honestly.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:05 am
45 – You are an idiot!
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:08 am
Lol Craig. I’m glad you’re back.
I hope you forgave my “Craig for Santorum ” stunt.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:09 am
I don’t think it’s as simple as reminding people that Mitt’s a Mormon or that he’s well off. All that info, after all, is already out there.
There is likely some specific, politically damaging detail in his taxes that Romney would prefer us not to know about.
I mean cmon – Romney’s not stupid, and it’s not like he decided on a whim to stonewall on this issue. There’s a reason he’s holding back on this.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:10 am
48—i see you didn’t take my kind advice?
#favour
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:10 am
Exactly.
It’s going to be a rough few days for Mitt and his supporters. I expect Gingrich to gain back the lead both nationally and in Florida. But it won’t last. Both Mitt and his supporters just have to relax and regroup.
If Mitt wins Florida the race is over.
If Mitt loses Florida he still wins the next 8 states.
Lol.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:13 am
The Grich Who Stole South Carolina
Every voter
Down in South Carolina
Liked Romney a lot..
But the Grich
Who lived just North certainly
DID NOT!
The Grich hated Romney! The whole campaign season!
Now, Please don’t ask why. No one quite knows the reason
It could be that his giant head wasn’t screwed on quite right.
It could be, perhaps, that his drawyers were too tight.
But I think that the most likely reason of all
May have been that his ego was two sizes to tall
But,
Whatever the reason,
His ego or his drawyers
He was determined to stop Mitt Romney’s voters
Then he got an idea!
An awful idea!
THE GRICH
GOT A WONDERFUL, AWFUL IDEA
“I know just what to do!” The Grich laughed in his throat.
“I’ll say horrible things, that will sway the vote”
And he chuckled, and clucked, “What a great Grichy prank!”
“I’ll use Fox News who I’ve got in the tank.”
“All I need is an ad…
The Grich looked around.
Since Obama was running one was easily found.
“I’ll use my Super PAC to buy the lies that I need”
“I’ll attack Mitt Romney, say he’s focused on Greed”
“I’ll use a media fall guy, someone who I can assault”
“If they ask about my marriage, I’ll insist it’s not my fault”
“I’ll act real offended, no need to be nice.”
“If it works really well, I’ll do it twice.”
The Grich cried for Romney’s taxes, and acted really mad.
“Why not release your returns, just like your old dad?”
Well the Grich, he stole South Carolina
Because he got the voters so mad
This left Mitt Romney’s supporters,
So horribly Sad.
“There’s a noise, grinned the Grich”
“That I simply must hear!”
So he paused, and the Grich put a hand to his ear.
He listened real hard to hear Romney campaign’s cries
It started real low, but started to rise…
But the sound wasn’t sad!
Why, this sound sounded merry!
It couldn’t be so!
But it WAS merry! Very!
He ran down to Romney’s campaign
The Grich popped open his eyes!
Then he shook!
What he saw was a shocking surprise.
Romney had just won Florida, and by a whole lot.
It was frustrating to lose, after how hard he had fought.
And the Grich stood there, his heart filled with woe,
Stood puzzling and puzzling: “How could it be so?”
“It came with out Fox! It came without Iowa!”
“It came without winning South Carolina!”
And what happened then…?
Well…in Florida they say
That the Grich’s tall ego
Shrank three sizes that day!
And the minute his ego didn’t feel quite so grand
he put aside his own feelings and thought of this land
He retracted his statements, Romney he no longer wanted to thwart
AND he…
…HE HIMSELF…
gave Mitt Romney his support!
Merry nomination, and a happy new president!
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:13 am
#45 I think you’re right.
What’s also weird to me is some Mormons think electing Mitt would do anything for their religion. Those Christians who consider Mormonsim a heretical cult still will. Those liberals who hatew Mormons still will. Those religiously indifferent folks will still not care about Mormons (except when Mormon ‘Elders’ interrupt their sinning by knocking on the door).
Electing a Mormon President is more likely to hurt the religion than help it.
I’m glad that none of the candidates are still Lutheran. I’d hate having Newt or Paul defending some of the more politically incorrect doctrines of the faith.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:16 am
52—that’s pretty much the assumptions I plan to trade on.
The unknown is indeed : could the momentum last? How hard will the establishment attack Gingrich?
“Lobbying for Freddie Mac” might work in a state badly hurting from the house bubble collapse
Paul will hammer Gingrich too.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:17 am
54 Agreed. The best thing for the LDS Church would be for Romney to lose narrowly because of the votes of evangelicals. They would get sympathy for decades.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:19 am
Matt, I’m going to be a little like Newt and challenge the whole premise of your question. While I don’t want Newt to win, your scenario is entirely too rosy.
First, let us begin with Florida. Florida polls have, at different times had Perry, Gingrich, and Herman Cain at the top. This suggets a strong ABR sentiment.
Then, let us take a look at February:
•Feb 4 – Nevada caucus
•Feb 7 – Colorado caucus, Minnesota caucus, Missouri primary
•Feb 11 – Maine caucus
•Feb 28 – Arizona primary, Michigan primary
•March 3 – Washington caucus
As I mentioned on another post, the last Nevada Caucus poll had Romney by 4 over Gingrich-hardly an overwhelming margin. It was taken back on December 20th in the middle of Gingrich fade and before his second wind. In addition, I think that many Mormons in the Tea Party are more for Ron Paul, so I expect Romney percentage of the LDS vote to drop to probably 70% rather than 90%.
With all the Caucuses in places like Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine, the assumption seems to be mainly that Romney will win because he won last time, which is poor analysis when it comes to Caucuses. It’s true that Maine will almost certainly go to Romney, but I wouldn’t bet on Colorado or Minnesota. Those both depend on who shows up, and Paul people have organizing like mad. Plus in Colorado, James Dobson is behind a candidate and he wasn’t when Colorado voted in ’08. And the first three caucuses plus the Missouri Primary are non-binding.
Michigan, Romney has to be favored in, but he only won 38% there. Arizona, I’ll concede Romney should be
Washington, I think you’re really go out on a big limb. That Caucus went about even for McCain, Huckabee, and Gingrich, with neither spending a ton of money or building organization in the state.
Super Tuesday:
•Alaska caucus (safe Romney)
•Georgia primary (safe Gingrich)
•Idaho caucus (safe Romney)
•Massachusetts primary (safe Romney)
•North Dakota caucus (safe Romney)
•Ohio primary (lean Romney)
•Oklahoma primary (lean Gingrich)
•Tennessee primary (lean Romney)
•Vermont primary (safe Romney)
Romney won 35% in Alaska in 2008, and that was without Todd Palin having endorsed. He also won 35% in North Dakota. Safe is really a stretch.
I’ve warned elsewhere that Idaho could be harder for Romney than some folks indicate because of the Ron Paul presence (but hey what do I know, I only live here.) In 2008, Romney finished a distant third in Tennessee. I don’t know how you put Romney as favored to win there.
What strikes me is that in this past week, voters in South Carolina swung against Mitt Romney by more than 20 points and what we’re getting here is a sort of Baghdad Bob view that ignores that reality and pretends everything is okay and that this huge upset didn’t occur. South Carolina didn’t swing because they were a bunch of stupid hillbillies, the S.S. Romney is in trouble and in danger of sinking.
Now, things may play out close to how Matt predicted, but not if Romney pretends he’s inevitable. Inevitably is so-Monday. Romney’s going to have make some changes and quickly.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:20 am
#56 I think Romney would get a little sympathy but I doubt the institution of the LDS Church would. After all it’s Romney who would have lost. Mormons would have lost nothing if Romney loses.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:23 am
Really, it’s hilarious how people think Newt is the guy that that identifies when real people and feels their pain..come on, before he started campaigning, I wonder when the last time he shook the hand of a regular person like me when he wasn’t selling a book, does he have a car and does he pump his own gas?
We don’t know anything about Newt and his life with Calista other than there is a $300,000 dollar charge account at Tifanys and what’s up with that anyway. Have we seen how he lives or what his house is like and when was Calista last seen at the grocery store. I’d like to know these things about our candidates.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:28 am
58 I think America loves victims. A relatively large chunk of people would feel like LDS people were “discriminated” against. It would be a bit of a controversy and (I don’t mean for this to sound bad) a church that is interested in proselyting isn’t hurt by controversy. Who cares, from their perspective, if people like or don’t like them. They thrive by people picking their side, and the more people that pick a side, the more that will pick their side.
I’m not saying that reflects the way I think, just that I think some people think that way, and the LDS Church would benefit.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:39 am
I think it would benefit every Romney supporter to read this account of why Mitt lost and Newt won.
http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/why-gingrich-won-why-romney-lost/328266
I think Mitt is in trouble.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:39 am
53- very good, aspire
Well done! Deserves to be posted on front page!
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:40 am
59 I don’t think we should be bringing up Gingrich’s Tiffany affair. If Romney supporters bash Gingrich for bringing up Romney’s wealth and the tax returns, it seems hypocritical to use the same class warfare tactics. I don’t want us to stoop down to his level.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:51 am
61) terrific article. Many thanks Teledude!
This expresses very well my feelings about the race. Very well described anecdotal evidences.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:55 am
That’s a good point about Gingich leading by about 30% in Florida only last month.
Florida will be VERY close.
This article also doesn’t make it clear that in 2008 Mitt was coming off big wins in Michigan & Nevada. This time he’s had just the one win.
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:55 am
Gingrich may not be as clever as Romney, but voters forgive him because Newt treat them with respect, offering them expansive proposals,with details. Says York. Whereas Romney sticks with boring generalities. Subconsciously, it antagonizes many folks. Why doesn’t he provide us elaborate, detailed policies?
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:56 am
I predict:
Mitty – 40%
Newty – 35%
Santy – 15%
Pauly – 10%
January 22nd, 2012 at 2:02 am
Good post Adam @57.
January 22nd, 2012 at 2:11 am
67—What if Santorum drops out?
January 22nd, 2012 at 2:16 am
69 – then Mitt may be rooted!
January 22nd, 2012 at 2:29 am
I think s.c. tried very hard to be objective but when Gingrich jumped on the media for asking a dumb question “in a presidential debate” it just started a revolting swell… never mind how much sense it makes, the public in general is tired of the media constantly positioning everybody the way they want and deciding what will produce the biggest squeal of excitement. There was no reasonable excuse for Gingrich to be incensed over an unexcuseable period in his life … so he made the audience support his transgressions and to punish the messager. I agree, the media needs to be put in their place, that of journalists not event planners, but the by product of this circus is the propping up of an adulterer because he says he’s sorry, the rewarding of ethics violations because its been ten years, and inflating his already huge ego because he says he’s a bold solution to everything. It’s funny because no one has been saying this in the last ten years or so except Newt. I would urge everyone to keep calm, be descerning and remember that even though someone says they’ve had a change in morality, doesn’t mean they should be then trusted with the Presidency of the United States.
January 22nd, 2012 at 2:33 am
57:
Idaho has the highest LDS population after Utah, 23%, LDS is the most Republican leaning religious group and Romney has 94% favorability among Republican/leaning LDS, so I think Romney should do well there
Michigan was one of the few states McCain won against Bush in 2000, so he had some popularity there also, this time Romney should probably win all the congressional districts.
Romney did better in Washington caucus in 2008 than in South Carolina, despite the caucus being several days after his suspending campaign and endorsing McCain, I think that is pretty good performance.
About Oklahoma primary. Tom Coburn has higher favorability than pretty much any US Senator has in their home state. Considering that Gingrich is “the main villain” in his book Breach of Trust: How Washington Turns Outsiders Into Insiders, he has already made several anti-Gingrich statements, expect him to go heavily after Newt if this goes to Super Tuesday. Will be interesting to see what kind of effect that will have.
January 22nd, 2012 at 2:43 am
Why Romney Could Be in Trouble in Florida
http://thepage.time.com/2012/01/21/why-romney-could-be-in-trouble-in-florida/
From one of Florida’s smartest Republican operatives:
“Florida will be more delegates than all other races (so far) combined [and is winner take all] and will be rocket fuel for Newtie as he comes out of here. McCain had zero people in Florida until a couple days after South Carolina [in 2008]. Ground game is not a factor in presidential primaries in Florida. Momentum and being a conservative is. Mitt isn’t running as a conservative. His only hope was the fools errand of inevitability.”
January 22nd, 2012 at 2:44 am
Anyway Tennessee is nice in one sense that one candidate cannot grab almost all delegates with good performance like in SC, Romney should be able to get more than one third in most if not every district, and in worst case be able to grab at least on third of TN delegates
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/TN-R
January 22nd, 2012 at 2:51 am
I think we are all missing something big which could explain why Newt won South Carolina and why he might actually win the Primary.
1. Newt might not have political endorsements but the endorsements he does have control of the radio and Fox News. He gets hours of free publicity every single day from the Far Right radio personalities like Hannity, Ingraham, Rush, etc. They have all backed him while spewing hatred for Mitt.
2. The people of SC said it was all about the economy when in reality their votes had nothing to do with the economy. They chose a politician turned millionaire lobbyist who doesn’t have a clue how to create a significant number of jobs.
3. Mitt’s taxes have nothing to do with the piece of paper they are written on. It’s a subtle way of reminding everyone he is a wealthy Mormon. Of course, the tax issue was repeated ad infinatum by his radio cheerleaders and the people on FNC.
Romney might have lots of money for his campaign but he can’t compete with the statewide coverage of the Far Right control of the radio.
4. It has been predetermined from the first debate that Newt always will win them. Even the ones we all thought Mitt won, the pundits declared Newt the winner. Most people don’t have a clue what makes a good debater. But, Newt caught on quickly that if he lectures the media, they will declare him winner of the debates.
5. I’m not making excuses for Romney. He was not prepared for the last two debates and it showed. He is not a trained debater and will probably stammer. But, if he was prepared for the questions we all knew would be asked, it would have sounded smoother.
Because of the non stop radio coverage for Newt, he could very well win Florida without running a single ad.
January 22nd, 2012 at 2:56 am
Let’s admit that Newt played the ex wife thing to a tee.
And it WAS a ridiculous story. I couldn’t believe all my fellow rombots 3 days ago thinking that it would sink Newt. THERE WAS NOTHING NEW TO THE STORY AND IT HAPPENED 15 YEARS AGO.
Even Cain went up initially after his “issues” came out – before people realised that there was a pattern of behavior.
I think Newt would be an awful nominee (may win 10 states tops), but he simply outplayed Mitt is SC. Game on. Return serve Mittens!
January 22nd, 2012 at 2:56 am
In 2008, after Arkansas, Huckabee’s home state, of the 30 caucuses and primaries Romney participated in, he did worse in South Carolina (15.3%) than anywhere else. I don’t think you really need to look for some really extra ordinary explanation why he didn’t win it.
January 22nd, 2012 at 3:34 am
22:
If there was such a significant overlap, the 2008 top trio McCain, Romney, Giuliani wouldn’t have gotten 82% in Florida, more than they got in New Hampshire, compared to the just 50% in South Carolina.
Except for 1980 and 2008, there has been at least 16 other primary or caucuses before Florida, so often it has been already clear way before Florida who is going to win.
January 22nd, 2012 at 3:49 am
I agree with you…
January 22nd, 2012 at 4:00 am
Newt knows how to hit conservatives’ buttons masterfully. I’m really taken aback at this. Romney won’t go down easy but it’s quite plausible at this point that Newt becomes the nominee. More of those states are going to start to fall into Newt’s tank now that he’s seen as a real challenger to Romney.
Meanwhile, if Newt was made President, he would continue bankrupting our future with more entitlements, more Middle East war, more kicking the can down the road. He does not have the temperament for the Presidency, as his abrasive and shifty nature will torpedo any chance of Newt’s good instincts being able to do anything at all. Newt has a different pet project every year. Ron Paul has been saying the same things for forty years and had we taken him seriously even once, we would not have deeply indebted the future generations of this nation. Newt pays lip service but he’s quite willing to sell out when the price is right.
January 22nd, 2012 at 4:02 am
#53 Aspire
Good job, LOL…
You really think Newt will become Mr. Nice and support Romney in the end?
I hope we get a chance to see…
January 22nd, 2012 at 5:00 am
“Super Tuesday:
•Alaska caucus (safe Romney)
•Georgia primary (safe Gingrich)
•Idaho caucus (safe Romney)
•Massachusetts primary (safe Romney)
•North Dakota caucus (safe Romney)
•Ohio primary (lean Romney)
•Oklahoma primary (lean Gingrich)
•Tennessee primary (lean Romney)
•Vermont primary (safe Romney)”
And last week, Mr. Romney was safe in South Carolina before he blew the debate.
January 22nd, 2012 at 5:02 am
There’s no question Newt will start out on top in Florida.
On Mormons and Ron Paul, Paul is definitely going to be stronger among Mormons than he is in the general population. Paul is organizing as we speak among Mormons in Nevada. We have a few Mormon Paul supporters here on this site (I’m one of them), and understanding why Paul would appeal to politically active Mormons in particular requires understanding the peculiar political and world outlook of Mormons. Mormons look at Romney and see a tremendously successful Mormon in the public sphere and naturally they are going to trust what he says, that’s obvious.
Ron Paul will do well among Mormons because:
-Mormons are generally young and thus especially attuned to the importance of Paul’s message.
-Mormons are distrustful of government
-Mormons are generally less connected to the government, with large extended families, higher levels of saving, and a Church welfare system
-Mormons are relatively comfortable with noninterventionism.
-Mormons are historically affiliated with a very staunch conservatism that has gone all the way up to the top leaders of the Church in the past. Older Mormons that would not listen to Paul otherwise will easily recognize this.
I think the first and the last are the most important. Older and younger generations’ priorities are really quite disaligned right now chiefly due to our debt addiction, but probably much less so for Mormons. A lot of the tension between rich/poor is just that between the established elderly that made off well in the years of debt-based prosperity, and the younger generation who grew up in this illusion only to have cold water thrown in their faces as they themselves come of age. The deeper we get into debt to prop up the present the more serious the tension is going to become. Of course this is just a failure of democracy and its historical tendency to promote the basest of human behavior and be entirely short-term focused, ie robbing the future to pay the bills today.
January 22nd, 2012 at 5:49 am
Thanks for your analysis and I hope you are right. I have never voted for democrats but if GOP actually nominates Newt – after 8 contenders ran for nomination. I will work for the rest of my life to make sure they remain a regional party. SC used religious bigotry in the worst kind of way and while Obama’s ideas are disastrous America can’t go back to a time when religious or racial bigotry was OK. Not on my watch and not in my lifetime. This is a defining day. If your analysis is correct and SC is an outlier then my faith in GOP will be restored. I want to believe that out of 4 candidates and 50 states,GOP nominates a person who confirms that Character Counts more than religious bigotry or hatred for Obama’s ideas.
January 22nd, 2012 at 6:02 am
“SC used religious bigotry in the worst kind of way” Oh please, let’s quit this non-sense.
January 22nd, 2012 at 6:24 am
Another worthy read that is consistent with #61.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100131619/newt-gingrich-didnt-win-south-carolina-mitt-romney-lost-it/
As the article suggests, Romney’s personality and the whole tax return issue (which should be a non-issue) reinforces voter apprehensions about Romney. There is a feeling that he is not authentic and that he seeks the presidency for untold reasons. In other words, like his tax returns Romney is inaccessible. OTOH, Gingrich is too accessible – we know too much about him, he says
too much about himself and others, but voters prefer too much information to too little information.
Some are speculating this contest will make Romney a better candidate, make him more accessible. I think he will make an effort, but one must wonder whether it is too late.
January 22nd, 2012 at 6:31 am
Huckabee believes Romney needs to address mormonism.
http://www.youtube.com/v/wrW9ZlF_JIQ?version=3&hl=en_US
January 22nd, 2012 at 6:56 am
Then why the post in #87 Ohio?
January 22nd, 2012 at 7:31 am
Great find by Telly in 61. A telling excerpt:
The Romney people have built a perfect campaign vehicle. The assumption seems to be that in doing so, the choice of candidate and message plopped into the cockpit of such a vehicle is unimportant. But it matters a lot.
The Romney campaign’s assumption is ultimately insulting to the intelligence of the voters that Mitt needs to attract.
January 22nd, 2012 at 7:39 am
SC Primary Update:
Momma Grizzly from Wasilla: 1
RINO Establishment: 0
January 22nd, 2012 at 7:51 am
89 Exit polls shoe Mitt got the votes of educated people who did their research and had made their decision weeks ago. Nooot got the uneducated evangelicals who could’t make up their minds without watching Fox news 2 hours before voting. Of course they would prefer a preacher type zinger master. Sheep need a sheep herder. Ironic that the so called “Christians” would choose a serial adulterer who can’t even decide what religion he prefers. Nooots gambling sugar daddy also goes unnoticed. Gambling breeds all kinds of seediness.. drugs, organized crime, prostitution, etc. Still, it’s all good to evangelicals because Nooot is good at carnival barking.
January 22nd, 2012 at 8:18 am
MattC,
After South Carolina, I would bet my actual farm that Tennessee will lean Gingrich (and I’m not a betting man). If Gingrich pulled off Florida, then Newt would easily win TN. Newt’s a pretty popular guy here in the conservative stronghold of Eastern TN- from Knoxville to Chattanooga. Haslam’s endorsement won’t push Gov. Romney over the top here.
January 22nd, 2012 at 8:35 am
What about Alabama? You left off Alabama for Super Tuesday! And I’m praying my state goes for Romney by then.
January 22nd, 2012 at 8:38 am
Gingrich is going to sweep the South – including Florida.
January 22nd, 2012 at 8:47 am
Romney on Fox News Sunday says he will release his 2010 and 2011 tax returns on Tuesday.
This is a smart time to do it. Tuesday is Romney’s speech and Obama’s SOTU.
January 22nd, 2012 at 9:04 am
Here are some things I found in the CNN South Carolina Exit Polls:
Although Gingrich won by double digits and won the majority of voter groups there were a few groups that other candidates won:
– quoting myself from a different forum.
I thought maybe that tidbit might be interesting to this discussion.
January 22nd, 2012 at 9:50 am
“And last week, Mr. Romney was safe in South Carolina before he blew the debate.”
Not really. He has favored, to be sure. But South Carolina doesn’t have the character that you could ever have called it “safe Romney”.
January 22nd, 2012 at 9:58 am
I apologize if it has already been mentioned. Here is something Newt has going for him: The Media. With Romney generating 72% negative commentary and reporting, it is very difficult to win over hearts and minds of some people. Also, Gingrich shows up on various programs more often than Romney, and gets better questions than Romney.
Also, it seems there are several newspaper news organizations helping Newt advertise a money bomb. American Spectator and Newsmax have both advertised Newt’s money bomb as a news article.
The other thing that has not been mentioned… maybe it has in comment sections, Ron Paul. Romney wasn’t beaten by McCain alone. But by a combo hit of McCain and Huckabee. This was most evident in WV2008. A similar thing could happen here. Ron Paul could be spoiler for Romney and assist Gingrich. Though, I think if it came down to it, Ron Paul would not allow a Gingrich campaign win. Real bad blood there.
Final question, when Santorum does finally drop out, who does he throw his weight behind? He seems like a sensible person, despite throwing lies and mud at Romney (this is politics). Would he support Romney or Gingrich? I think he would go Romney.
January 22nd, 2012 at 10:01 am
95. Mass Con: Release taxes. It is a good time to do it. There will be a lull in primary action as we wait for the final week before the 31st. It takes this issue off the table both now and in the future. And he can take this story away from Gingrich.
If Gingrich falls for the class/religion warfare angle, he’s playing right into Obama’s hands… again.
Wasn’t it enough that he assisted Bill Clinton’s win in 1996?
January 22nd, 2012 at 10:31 am
Romney absolutely has to win Florida, the primary really hinges on that. I think he will, and then it’s over as all of the next 8 contests will also go his way.
But if Newt wins Florida, he has shown he can appeal beyond anti-Mormon rednecks who look at a Presidential race like it’s a Jerry Springer show.
Another prediction, if Newt wins Florida the GOP (terrified at the prospect of an electoral wipe out in 2012) pull together a late entry ticket that everyone unites around. (think some combination of Christie, Rubio, Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, etc.)
I could also see a Mike Bloomberg jump in if Newt gets the nomination as a HUGE amount of independent Americans (and a whole lot of Republicans) will be so disgusted by the choices that a Perot style candidacy will be very appealing.
We’ll know who the nominee ISN’T in 10 days.
January 22nd, 2012 at 10:50 am
Katechon Says:
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:08 am
“Lol Craig. I’m glad you’re back.
I hope you forgave my “Craig for Santorum ” stunt”
===
Kate,
Lol! .. It was actually very VERY funny. I would have pulled it myself if Kavon would have let me.
January 22nd, 2012 at 10:52 am
Common Cents Says:
January 22nd, 2012 at 10:31 am
“..Newt wins Florida, he has shown he can appeal beyond anti-Mormon rednecks who look at a Presidential race like it’s a Jerry Springer show.”
===
Please seek help.
January 22nd, 2012 at 10:59 am
I hope Willard releases his taxes online as Newt did. It makes it easier to disect them.
Although I’m pretty sure they’re up to snuff.
But where’s that rascal, Santorum’s taxes? T’m not even sure what his “job” is….
January 22nd, 2012 at 11:00 am
*dissect
GO NEWT!
January 22nd, 2012 at 11:10 am
Matt,
Oops.. Newt’s straight: add Missouri & Maine
(We Lutherans obviously don’t know play a lot of poker ;~))
January 22nd, 2012 at 11:16 am
66 – He treats them with respect by lying to them?
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Econ Grad said it very well, and it is worth repeating:
Romney did not lose because of religious bigotry. But that meme was started as soon as the polling showed Newt was surging in South Carolina.
Romney has failed to connect with voters. Romney failed to show courage prior to the primary season by remaining on the fence when key issues were coming down the pike. Romney has failed to deliver a message that encourages people to get behind him–he has not made the sale.
Romney does not come off as a fighter, and certainly not a fighter for the social conservative cause. In his VVS speech he only had one line in his entire speech about traditional marriage and the pro-life cause. So while Romney has the perfect marriage and moral character. He lacks the skills to transform that into a message that rallies people to his campaign.
I would imagine he will use the next two days to reflect on what he needs to do to win Florida. I don’t think that lambasting Newt and dismissing the South Carolina voters would be the winning strategy that he needs.
January 22nd, 2012 at 12:09 pm
#105, This Lutheran plays poker, drinks and swears (when appropriate).
January 22nd, 2012 at 1:52 pm
108. I don’t think you can add Missouri. I don’t think Newt’s on the ballot.
January 22nd, 2012 at 2:30 pm
“Romney did not lose because of religious bigotry.” Shhhhhh, it is all they have, they must cry bigotry because they cannot win on the issues.
January 22nd, 2012 at 6:02 pm
This is so laughable it’s not even funny.
First of all, calling Tennessee safe Romney is a joke. Newt will dominate there. Same for Oklahoma. That’s 3 huge states.
Second of all, polling with Newt’s last surge showed Newt doing well in michigan and Arizona. Now, recent polls were not friendly, but those are meaningless given Newt’s recent ascendancy. That could change.
Third, calling Ohio a lean Romney is also a joke. I’d call it a Newt lean.
Fourth, don’t assume North Dakota, Alaska, etc, are going to go for Mitt even though they are caucuses.
Fifth, Virginia’s law is going to get changed. That’s in the works now.
So, just stop. Yes, Mitt will get a win in Missouri and perhaps Colorado, but that won’t mean anything other than a blip on the map once Newt wins Florida by double digits.
January 22nd, 2012 at 6:11 pm
Missouri is just a beauty contest. Newt will get his delegates there later
January 22nd, 2012 at 6:13 pm
111.
Oh, you’re one of those wacky spin offs
January 24th, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Where’s the grassroots support? Not hearing anything about it. I got some Florida / Floridian for Romney buttons to give out to my friends at http://www.buttonworks.com/mitt_romney_state_button.html they have all the states. They make custom buttons too. I think I’ll come up with some designs of my own, maybe some Anti-Obama buttons.