Clemson University Palmetto Poll – South Carolina Primary Survey
- Gingrich – 32% (38)
- Romney – 26% (21)
- Paul – 11% (10)
- Santorum – 9% (2)
- Undecided – 20% (17)
Survey of 429 voters who said they plan to vote in tomorrow’s primary was conducted Jan 18-19 and has a margin of error of +/-4.73%. Numbers from their last poll taken in December are in parentheses.
A couple quick notes: this poll is only conducted once a month, so it never captured Gingrich’s collapse at the end of December/beginning of January. Also, the fact that 20% of the people who are planning on voting tomorrow still have not made up their minds as to who they will be pulling the lever for simply boggles my mind. Those 20% are going to decide this contest, ultimately, and that is a huge number to still have undecided at this point.
January 20th, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Also, we can surmise that Gingrich has a very narrow lead based on the two polls released today. In the first, the margin of error is 3% and he has a 4% lead. In this one, the margin of error is 5% and he has a 6% lead. So Newt’s lead is just outside the margin of error in both polls.
Tomorrow night could be another long night. Or, if that 20% break significantly for Gingrich it could be over relatively quickly. It’s crazy to be this close to a primary (not a caucus) and have little idea of exactly how it will turn out.
January 20th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Um, wheres the link to the PDF file showing the methodology of this poll? This is about the 3rd or 4th poll cited in the MSM over the last few days that does not provide the link to the methodology. THIS IS A “PUSH” POLL, and its BS.
January 20th, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Ponnuru at NR, who endorsed Mitt weeks ago, says a long, drawn-out campaign for the nomination is in Mitt’s best interest. He gave 6 reasons, while ignoring the reasons on the other side.
I’m looking forward to seeing how deep Gingrich’s support is. I think a lot of it is shallow.
January 20th, 2012 at 4:12 pm
We need Santorum to have some scandal (like an affair) and then he can rip the media (say wolf blitzer) for being bias. This would give him at least a 5-10% bump.
January 20th, 2012 at 4:13 pm
I think some of the mega-church pastors who have had affairs have paved the way for Gingrich. They however, at least acted contrite, not offended.
January 20th, 2012 at 4:16 pm
PPP just tweeted that they will put their final poll up between 10:00-10:30. They also said that so far “Newt knows what he is doing”.
January 20th, 2012 at 4:22 pm
5. Jimmy Swaggart was contrite a bunch of times. He’s probably voting for Nooot.
January 20th, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Matt C,
“Also, the fact that 20% of the people who are planning on voting tomorrow still have not made up their minds as to who they will be pulling the lever for simply boggles my mind.”
No. Many of those people simply won’t vote. The pollster didn’t screen tightly enough for “likely” voters.
January 20th, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Should we post our SC predictions to this thread, or will there be another?
January 20th, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Gingrich 38
Romney 30
Paul 17
Santorum 12
Other 3
January 20th, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Sad to put this up.
January 20th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
8. Some people take voting as seriously as others take getting on the ballot. They just wing it.
January 20th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Chuck Norris endorses Newt….. and why is he important last election or this???? http://www.wnd.com/2012/01/gops-biggest-celebrity-makes-his-endorsement/
January 20th, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Romney 32
Gingrich 30
Santorum 22
Paul 15
Other 1
January 20th, 2012 at 4:36 pm
So we’re going to throw conservative values to the wind because we want to beat up on the media? What good is it to beat up on the media if our values and morals are no better than liberals? Where do we go after their beat? Gingrich? So he’s the example/leader who guides from the shining city on the hill? America is done. It has no moral superiority. At least we can say the MSM will be run by “conservatives”. Wrong. The media will always be the media and Rush even admitted to that.
January 20th, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Two things could happen when SC voters enter the polling booth. They can think about how Newt bombastically told off the moderator who brought up Newt’s disgusting immoral behavior, or they can realize that Newt really is a scumbag who should not be President and would likely lose to Obama.
January 20th, 2012 at 4:39 pm
MWS (8): You’re probably right. But I don’t find it at all mind-boggling that a large number are undecided, considering the four crummy choices.
Koby (2): Please tell us why you think this is one of these:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll
January 20th, 2012 at 4:42 pm
13. Chuck Norris once made Mitt Romney ride on the roof of his car.
January 20th, 2012 at 4:58 pm
the right of secession was one aspect of the civil war…i’m wondering, is there a reverse process?…because if SC is so freaking stupid to push this chicken hawk, pretend intellectual, egomaniac, piece of human garbage in the form of newt back into the limelight then they should be kicked out of the Union…so far normal, sound americans have clearly rejected his antics in the midwest and northeast, yet with a few 3rd grade level one liners from this guy SC is head or heals
January 20th, 2012 at 5:29 pm
Rotten weather upstate in Gingrich country and great weather on the coast in Romney country, plus negative break in women’s vote will make for a very close election. Say 1 or 2 % either way
January 20th, 2012 at 5:46 pm
Yeah weather forecast looks promising
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/south-carolina-primary-decision-2012_2012-01-20
January 20th, 2012 at 10:19 pm
Newt 35
Romney 34
Santorum 16
Paul 13
Other 2
January 21st, 2012 at 12:24 am
100% chance Gingrich loses nationally AND against Obama. I think this will play in the back of South Carolina voters’ heads, who won’t want to lose their value as an early voting state, reputation, etc.
Newt might win in a debate against Obama, but he’ll lose the larger debate fought with advertising dollars. He can’t even get his friends to give him money.