Here are the fundraising totals for all the candidates, as per the FEC year-end reports filed today (except Ron Paul, whose report hasn’t been posted yet). Cash on hand is as of the end of 12/31/11.

Updated: Added Ron Paul’s information.

¹Indicates candidate self-funding

In the game of chess, when a player has reached the point where it is obvious that he can’t win, he has the option of resigning the game. He does this by tipping over his king. This is a perfectly acceptable thing to do. In fact, among serious players, it is expected. To continue the game beyond the point where it is obvious you cannot win is actually considered bad form and is known derisively in chess circles as “playing for heart failure”.

I thought of that when I read this blurb from BuzzFeed:

Campaign strategy boils down to blind hope Romney will somehow blow it

—

A Gingrich insider emails saying tonight’s distant second-place finish is “devastating” to his campaign.

“He needed this to get more money raised,” the source writes, lamenting that there are no debates until February 22nd and no real primaries until the 28th.

He adds “BUT…who knows anything could happen over next month…staying in makes anything possible.”

I’m not so sure Newt’s cause is hopeless just yet. There is still a lot of primaries to be run. There is still the fact that he did manage to come roaring back after devastating losses in both Iowa and New Hampshire to take South Carolina. He was able to do that because Mitt Romney made the mistake of thinking Gingrich was finished and could be ignored. Boy, was he wrong!

Yes, Newt could come roaring back again, I suppose, but making the same mistake twice is not something Mitt is prone to do. Quite the opposite, in fact. Couple that with the news that the other ABR still in the race, Rick Santorum, is definitely making a play for any Newt’s supporters who might be souring on the former Speaker of the House, Gingrich is facing a long, rather discouraging February.

Is he, “playing for heart failure”? We’ll soon find out.

Mitt Romney:

Newt Gingrich:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Rick Santorum:

Ron Paul:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VWWwDhkRpg[/youtube]

Public Policy Polling 2012 Ohio Republican Primary Poll

• Gingrich-26%
• Romney-25%
• Santorum-22%
• Paul-11%

Favorability:

• Santorum-59-24% (+35)
• Gingrich-47-37% (+10)
• Romney-47-37% (+10)
• Paul-31-52% (-19)

Poll of 626 Ohio Republican Primary voters conducted January 28th and 29th with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.

Public Policy Polling 2012 Missouri Primary Poll

Republican Primary Poll 

• Santorum-45%
• Romney 34%
• Paul 13%

Republican Caucus Poll

• Gingrich-30%
• Santorum-28%
• Romney-24%
• Paul-11%

Favorability

• Santorum-63%-21% (+42)
• Gingrich       52%-32% (+20)
• Romney        46%-36% (+10)
• Paul                28%-57%(-29)

574 Regular Missouri Republican Primary Voters, conducted January 27-29th and a has margin of error of +/- 4.1%

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGtfSf3jjAI[/youtube]

Of course Gingrich supporters will cry foul and cite this as supposed proof that Santorum is a stalking horse for Romney.

“He’s not going after Romney.”

Right now, Santorum and Romney aren’t going after the same voters and this ad puts him in position to profit from Gingrich’s continuing implosion.

Here’s a clean piece of screen to discuss the results as they trickle in. Most polls are now closed in the state; those in the Central time zone will be closing in one hour.

The latest exit poll from Drudge shows Romney’s lead expanding to 49-33 over Gingrich.

Polls across most of Florida are now open as of 7:00 am eastern time (the rest will open at 7:00 am central time).

As of yesterday afternoon, 600,000 votes had already been cast (308,416 absentee ballots and 283,250 early voters). That matches the total number of votes cast in the South Carolina primary.

Consider this your open thread for the day – it will be updated as time allows throughout the day. Polls close at 7:00 pm eastern/central time.

—–
Update #1: 8 1/2 hours until the first polls close

Here’s a compilation of all the final polls coming out of Florida — someone will have a little egg on their face when the day is over:

InsiderAdvantage: Romney +5 (36-31)
PPP: Romney +8 (39-31)
War Room Logistics: Romney +10 (40-30)
Mason-Dixon: Romney +11 (42-31)
Quinnipiac: Romney +14 (43-29)
NBC/Marist: Romney +15 (42-27)
SUSA: Romney +15 (41-26)
Rasmussen: Romney +16 (44-28)
Suffolk: Romney +20 (47-27)
We Ask America: Romney +22 (50-28)

RealClearPolitics Average: Romney +13.0
Pollster.com Average: Romney +8.5

—–
Update #2: 6 hours until the first polls close
Today isn’t only the Florida primary, fellow political nerds. It is also the filing deadline for the year-end FEC fundraising reports. We’ll be back later tonight with an official Q4 fundraising leaderboard, but here’s what we know so far: Huntsman’s daddy pumped $2 million into Junior’s campaign via his Super PAC; Rick Perry raised less than $3 million in Q4 (!) and blew through his entire cash on hand totals during the December leadup to Iowa; Gingrich’s Q4 haul neared $10 million.

Oh, and according to a new “study” released this morning, the Florida campaign over the past week has been measurably the most negative in modern political history, with 92% of the advertisements being attack ads. Yikes.

——
Update #3: 2 hours until the first polls close
This is the Hour O’ Exit Polls, folks, so post ‘em when you see ‘em. CNN, ABC, and the NYT should be releasing some information, among others.

The Drudge siren announces some (leaked) exit poll results:

• Romney – 46%
• Gingrich – 32%
• Santorum – 12%
• Paul – 7%

Other numbers:

• 70% identify as conservatives;
• 37% said Romney ran a more unfair campaign, compared to 34% who said Gingrich did;
• 45% said electability was the most important factor in choosing a nominee (experience – 20%; character – 17%; being a “true conservative” – 13%)
• 67% said the debates mattered in who they voted for;
• 40% are age 65 or older

Update: NYT exit poll numbers peg the race at a 44-30 lead for Romney, the same 14% margin that Drudge is reporting.

A source inside one of the GOP candidate’s campaigns tells Andrew Breitbart that they have seen numbers indicating a 47-34 Romney lead — a similar margin.

Romney is winning seniors by a 15% margin over Gingrich.

Get a load of this story:

WINDERMERE, Fla.–Next time, Eddie Dillard won’t wear flip-flops.

Dillard, a 29-year-old Ron Paul supporter from this suburb near Orlando, arrived to vote at his precinct at Winderemere Baptist Church early Tuesday morning. Pulling into the parking lot, Dillard noticed a man outside the polling place with a Gingrich sign. He decided to run home, slip into his “Ron Paul Rocks America” T-shirt, grab a “Ron Paul 2012″ sign from his garage, and return to give his candidate some representation outside the precinct after he cast his vote.

Dillard found a quiet spot along a sidewalk lined with tiny American flags and held up his sign. Little did he know, Newt Gingrich had chosen that very spot to make his first Primary Day campaign stop.

When Gingrich’s bus pulled up, Dillard stood silently holding his sign and watched the news-media horde swamp the candidate. Gingrich stepped down from the bus and made a beeline for Dillard. He stopped in front of Dillard and his sign and parked himself for a round of handshaking and pictures with voters. The placement couldn’t have been worse. There was Gingrich, standing with his wife Callista at their first event of the day, and a giant Ron Paul sign floated inches from their crowns.

Noticing the awkward optics, Gingrich aides and security personnel swarmed Dillard, trying to intimidate him into moving. One of Gingrich’s security agents stepped in front of him. When Dillard didn’t budge, the agent lifted his heeled shoe over Dillard’s bare foot and dug the back of it into his skin, twisting it side-to-side like he was stomping out a cigarette. Shocked, Dillard kept his ground and took a picture of the agent with his phone, which was quickly knocked out of his hand. Dillard slipped off his flip-flop to pick up the phone with his foot, and a Gingrich supporter kicked the sandal away.

“Don’t kick me!” Dillard said to the man who knocked away his sandal. More members of Gingrich’s security retinue approached, shoving their shoulders and chests in front of him.

“Just block him!” a Gingrich campaign aide said. “Everyone step on his toes!”

…

As Gingrich pulled away, Dillard looked down at his foot. With the adrenaline pumping, he hadn’t noticed the pain, but now it was starting to sink in. A bruise was forming, and there was a cut mark where the security agent had dug in his heel.

…

So, a Ron Paul supporter is assaulted by the Gingrich campaign for exercising his 1st Ammendment rights in a public place.

(more…)

Since the outcome of today’s primary isn’t in much doubt, I thought I’d delve a little deeper and try to come up with a guess at a Florida map.  This is by no means statistically rigorous.  I basically consulted ’08 and ’10 maps, both primary and general election, and then worked from the following assumptions:

1.  Romney will do especially well in wealthier, older, more diverse, and more urban counties.

2.  The ’08 primary map is a reasonable guideline for Romney’s relative strengths with one caveat: he’ll do less well, relatively, in more conservative counties which aren’t dominated by wealthy voters.

Here’s the map I’ve come up with:

The counties labeled “Strong Romney” are counties I’d guess Mitt will carry by more than 10%.  Florida veterans, what say you?

Gallup has released the results of their national daily tracking poll for 1/31, the day of the Florida Primary. The following graphics were taken from their website:

Not much happened today in the way of movement. Only one candidate moved; the rest pushed.

Newt Gingrich remains on top with 28%. He hasn’t moved in two days.

Mitt Romney also pushes. He remains at 27%, still one point behind Gingrich.

Rick Santorum is the only candidate with any movement today, and it was in the positive direction. He increased his support to 17%. That puts him within 11 points of Gingrich and 10 points of Romney.

Ron Paul, in common with Gingrich and Romney, retains the same level of support as yesterday. He remains all alone in last place with 13%. Since Santorum went up a point, Paul is now four points behind third place Santorum.

From the National Journal:

GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich says rival Rick Santorum should take a look at the poll numbers, which show Gingrich beating him, and drop out.

“The longer conservatives stay split, the harder it’s going to be for us to [beat Romney],” Gingrich said on FOX and Friends on Tuesday. “And I think that we risk not being able to beat Obama unless we get a conservative. I have to win the nomination.”

Santorum is sapping conservative votes from Gingrich, the former House speaker said.

Santorum is having none of it:

…

“My message is everybody should run, whoever wants to run and be in this race. I don’t think people should be telling other folks to ‘get out of the race and get out of my way,’” Santorum said.

(more…)

Their final numbers were released last night:

Public Policy Polling/DailyKos/SEIU (D) Florida Primary Survey

• Romney – 39% (39)
• Gingrich – 31% (32)
• Santorum – 15% (14)
• Paul – 11% (11)
• Undecided – 5% (4)

Survey of 1,087 likely primary voters was conducted Jan 28-30 and has a margin of error of +/-3%. Numbers from the poll conducted Jan 27-29 are in parentheses.

Dear Fellow Conservatives,

In our previous letter, we discussed the general character of Newt Gingrich. In this final piece, I want to focus in one particular aspect of Gingrich’s character and that his pride and what Senator Santorum has called “grandiosity.” Gingrich grandiosity can be divided into two areas: 1) grandiosity about himself and 2) grandiose ideas.

Gingrich defends his grandiosity.  “I accept the charge that I am an American and Americans are instinctively grandiose.” It’s a great line, but somewhat off-base.

As Washington Post’s Leadership Columnist Jena McGregor wrote, that Santorum’s use of grandiosity was in its most common meaning: “characterized by affectation of grandeur or splendor or by absurd exaggeration.”  Gingrich seems to have re-interpreted grandiosity in the less common meaning of, “impressive because of uncommon largeness, scope, effect, or grandeur.”

To be clear America has grand ideas, but it is not grandiose in the most common understood meaning, but Newt Gingrich is.

Gingrich’s exalted view of himself is reminiscent of President Obama. Over the years, Obama and the media have made grand comparison of Obama to great past leaders. At some point, you begin to wonder why Obama has to be FDR, Lincoln, or Reagan. Why can’t Obama be Obama? And why can’t Gingrich be Gingrich? It suggests an ego that far outstrips ability, and an insecurity to command adulation that has not been earned.

Perhaps, the most dangerous type of men in political life is those who view themselves as not only great men, but figures of historic magnitude. Politics has never been a magnet for humble people, but when someone thinks so much of themselves they can’t help but share the magnitude of their greatness with the human race. Such leaders think they are not ordinary mortals, are not bound by rules which others must follow.

According to Marianne Gingrich,  after she found out about Gingrich affair, he came home to talk about it after delivering a speech in Erie, Pennsylvania that dealt with the survival of civilization and values. She confronted him with the contradiction between the speech and how he was living to which (according to Mrs. Gingrich), the Speaker replied:

 ”It doesn’t matter what I do. People need to hear what I have to say. There’s no one else who can say what I can say. It doesn’t matter what I live.”

This is not the type of leader we need. We need leaders who are comfortable with themselves, not full of themselves. We need leaders who don’t try to make themselves into Lincoln or Reagan, but rather are comfortable in their own skin. They don’t compare themselves to great men of years past. They are willing and able to be themselves.

When it comes such as epic historic comparisons, candidates would do well to heed the advice of Proverbs, “Let another praise you, and not your own mouth; a stranger, and not your own lips.”

When it comes to ideas, Gingrich has many good ideas and many bad ones and he flits from idea to idea. In one debate, Senator Santorum described working with Gingrich this way, “An idea a minute, no discipline.”

This is an apt comparison. It is true that America has serious problems that require big ideas to fix, but we need a President whose ideas are on-point to the problems the country faces and who will have the discipline to push the right ideas and deliver a consistent message to the American people.

Perhaps, the most glaring example of Speaker Gingrich’s tendency to stray off the beaten path with his big ideas is his rush push for a lunar colony: an idea that failed to blast off with Florida voters. Voters saw expensive boondoggle. The colonization of space is not necessarily a waste of money for a disciplined country with fiscal house in order, but in a time when Americans are concerned about economy here on Earth, jobs, and an annual deficit well in excess of $1 trillion a year, the big idea was a big distraction.

The problem with big ideas is that they’re not all good. Certainly having the federal government mandate everyone purchase health insurance is a big idea that gives the federal government an unprecedented amount of control in people’s lives. Support for this mandate from the Federal Government was part of Speaker Gingrich’s menu of big ideas for nearly twenty years, and he urged that it be included in the federal health care legislation that became Obamacare.

The problem with “big idea” men like Gingrich is that they forget that American liberty and opportunity is the biggest and most successful political idea the world has ever known. Americans have enjoyed prosperity and opportunity the world has ever known. Our ancestors lived lives where their paths were more or less dictated to them from birth, where books and learning where rare, and where diseases that are virtually unheard of today or can be cured with a simple shot. Throughout our history, we’ve attracted the best and brightest from around the world in search of opportunity, and by doing so we’ve built America.

This idea is imperiled due to out of control spending and cultural decline. Is it threatened by politicians and “big idea” men who have sought to establish new and exciting government programs to build their own legacy. These political leaders have been little different than the kings of old who built their monuments to ensure their long-term legacy.

What America needs is not a grandiose idea man, but a focused dedicated and disciplined leader who will push for common sense solutions to our nation’s most pressing problems. I believe that leader is Senator Rick Santorum and I’d strongly encourage conservatives to give him their vote.

Senator Rick Santorum made his first appearance since Friday in Missouri this afternoon:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgPBaCTYj0k[/youtube]

Santorum moved on to Luverne, Minnesota in the evening, where he had to make a change of venue:

The original plan was to host Rick Santorum at the Pizza Ranch in Luverne, but the organizers had to move the town hall meeting to the Palace Theater, because the turnout was just too large and even the theatre ended up packed.

Here’s an excerpt from Santorum’s speech last night.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jF-xu-3zO-4[/youtube]

Santorum continues on today to Colorado and Nevada.

Stacy McCain reports Newt has got a conspiracy theory to explain why he’s losing to Romney:

 During his speech today at Page Field, Newt Gingrich spun a conspiratorial view of the opposition to him, saying that Mitt Romney’s campaign is using “recycled” bailout money to attack him.

Saying that Goldman Sachs chose Barack Obama in 2008, Gingrich said the giant Wall Street bank — using taxpayer funds from bailouts — had “recycled” that money into support for Mitt Romney’s campaign. Gingrich said that, if elected president, he would request “a thorough audit” to find out “where the money went.”

Gingrich also referenced remarks by international financier George Soros critical of his campaign. Soros, Gingrich said, was “in Europe, and he’s explaining to Europeans the American campaign … And so Soros says, you know, we think either Obama or Romney’s fine, but Gingrich, he would change things.” Gingrich said, “They are uncomfortable with me and they should be.”

It’s all a grand conspiracy, never mind that Goldman repaid any money it got from TARP years ago. This sounds like the first time that Newt held a rally  and people could easily be confused into thinking it was a Ron Paul rally. Meanwhile, Newt has already achieved a lot with his rhetoric on space according to proponents of the program:

“Gingrich, if he made it not sound crazy — which he did — could have used this,” lamented Arlin Crotts, a Columbia astronomer and space travel backer. “But now — Gingrich just can’t control himself sometimes.”

Others believe the former Speaker did lasting harm to his pet cause.

“To treat building a base on the moon as a grandiose joke, as the media and many conservatives are doing, is really sad,” said a senior aide to a member of the pro-space Florida Congressional delegation. “Regardless of what happens to Newt, I’m afraid he’s poisoned the issue for at least a decade, and really set back the future of human space exploration.”

Wow, this is an achievement. A whole decade? Perhaps, it’s an overstatement. It’s hard for people to remember who won American Idol three years ago, let alone all the crazy and poorly presented ideas Newt Gingrich puts out. It’ll probably only set them 2-3 years back. Tops.

But don’t tell Gingrich. A decade is a much larger period.

Remember, Newt thinks grandiose thoughts.

Update:

Newt will clean Obama’s clock in the debates unless the Commission on Presidential debates insists on holding them in the same manner they always have. From CBS:

PENSACOLA, Fla. – With his poll numbers lagging in Florida, Newt Gingrich returned Monday to his tried-and-true offensive against the media, declaring that if he’s the Republican nominee, he will not debate President Obama if a reporter serves as moderator.

“The reporters who run the debates have no interest in asking any question which will affect Obama,” Gingrich told a crowd gathered to see him at the Pensacola airport. “That’s why, as your nominee, I will not accept debates in the fall in which the reporters are the moderators because you don’t need to have a second Obama person on the debate.”

The funny thing here is that Gingrich is implying he’d have any leverage to dictate format. If Newt were to get the nomination and said no media moderators, Obama would just shrug and say, “Fine.”

Seriously, I don’t know if Newt can say anything more crazy.

Rasmussen 2012 Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 47% [45%] (46%) {45%} [46%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 41% [43%] (42%) {42%} [43%] (43%) {43%} [43%] (44%)

• Barack Obama 52% [50%] (49%) {48%} [48%] (48%) {49%} [48%] (47%)
• Newt Gingrich 35% [37%] (39%) {41%} [41%] (41%) {40%} [39%] (40%)

Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted January 27-29, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.  Results from the poll conductedJanuary 26-28, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 24-26, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 23-25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-24, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 21-23, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 20-22, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 19-21, 2012are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

We are now twelve hours away from the opening of the Florida polls. Here’s a fresh piece of screen to continue your thoughts on — open thread, go wild.

Tomorrow is the decisive Florida primary. It is also another turning point in the race: tomorrow, it becomes mathematically impossible for a late entrant into the race to earn the 1,144 delegates necessary to win the GOP nomination. Frontloading HQ does the heavy lifting with a handy chart and a post entitled, “I’ll See Your White Knight and Raise You a Filing Deadline: Why It’s Too Late For Entry Into the Republican Nomination Race”.

The money quote:

If the list is constrained more simply to the states where filing deadlines have not passed, the total delegates open to a late entrant drops to 1157. After Tuesday, when Kentucky’s (and Indiana’s petition — see footnote 17 above) deadlines pass that total will drop below 1144 to 1066.

After tomorrow, a candidate can only get on the ballot in enough states to get 1,066 delegates. A late entrant to the race has always been an extreme longshot, but now it is mathematically impossible. Sorry, George Will, Bill Kristol, et al.

But what about a brokered convention? Could someone jump in and deny Mitt Romney the ability to get to 1,144? Theoretically, yes. But here’s what Frontloading HQ has to say about that scenario:

But here’s the thing: Who is that candidate? Let me rephrase that. Who is the candidate who can not only successfully enter the race late, but who can also marshal the organization necessary to cobble together enough delegates to take the nomination or throw enough of a monkeywrench into the process and still maintain support in the party to win the nomination at the convention? Let’s think about this for a moment. There are people in this race now actively seeking the nomination (and who have been running for president for quite some time) who cannot get on the ballots in some states. And we are expecting someone to come in and immediately be able to beat these deadlines, organize write-in efforts and uncommitted slates of delegates to get within shouting distance of 1144 or a lower total held by the frontrunner.

After tomorrow, we can finally put to rest the wild fantasies of a White Knight run by the likes of Jindal, Jeb, Christie, or Ryan. Sorry, dreamers.

Gallup has released their daily tracking results for 1/30. The graphical results from their website are as follows:

Newt Gingrich pushes after his record setting 4 point drop yesterday. He remains at 28% nationwide.

Mitt Romney climbs up another point to 27%. That is good enough for second place. He trails Gingrich among national voters by a single point.

Rick Santorum improves his third place by a point. He now sits at 16% — 11 points behind Romney and 12 points behind Gingrich.

Ron Paul drops back to 13%. He is now a full four points behind Santorum and is in last place nationally.

Suffolk University Florida Primary Survey

• Romney – 47%
• Gingrich – 27%
• Santourm – 12%
• Paul – 9%
• Undecided – 5%

Survey of 500 likely primary voters was conducted Jan 28-29.

If it’s Monday, it must be time for an Intrade update!

As we approach the Sunshine State vote, the sun is about to set on the Gingrich campaign — at least that’s how the investors are seeing things about twenty hours prior to the polls opening. Romney has regained everything he lost after the South Carolina wake-up call, and Gingrich has lost everything he gained. At this point, looking just at the Intrade boards, it’s as if South Carolina never even happened. No wonder Newt is getting so desperate and testy out on the campaign trail.

Movement listed below is from one week ago (the Monday after South Carolina).

Here are the (lightly traded) early state primaries, with the numbers from last week in parentheses:

Florida

• Romney – 95.6 (41.7)
• Gingrich – 5.6 (58.9)
• Santorum – 0.1 (0.4)

Nevada

• Romney – 94.3 (72.1)
• Gingrich – 4.0 (20.8)
• Paul – 1.7 (6.7)

Nobody has started a predictions thread for the Florida Primary yet. Considering it is now less than 24 hours away, that needs to be remedied.

So, let the fun begin!

Quinnipiac University Florida Primary Survey

• Romney – 43% (38)
• Gingrich – 29% (29)
• Paul – 11% (14)
• Santorum – 11% (12)
• Undecided – 7% (6)

Favorability Among Likely Primary Voters

• Santorum – 58/16
• Romney – 64/25
• Gingrich – 51/42
• Paul – 35/45

Survey of 539 likely primary voters was conducted Jan 27-29 and has a margin of error of +/-4.2%. Numvers from the last survey conducted Jan 24-26 are in parentheses.

Conservative pundit and blogger Michelle Malkin has endorsed Rick Santorum this morning. Here’s an excerpt from her piece:

Rick Santorum opposed TARP.

He didn’t cave when Chicken Littles in Washington invoked a manufactured crisis in 2008. He didn’t follow the pro-bailout GOP crowd — including Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich — and he didn’t have to obfuscate or rationalize his position then or now, like Rick Perry and Herman Cain did. He also opposed the auto bailout, Freddie and Fannie bailout, and porkulus bills.

Santorum opposed individual health care mandates — clearly and forcefully — as far back as his 1994 U.S. Senate run. He has launched the most cogent, forceful fusillade against both Romney and Gingrich for their muddied, pro-individual health care mandate waters.

He voted against cap and trade in 2003, voted yes to drilling in ANWR, and unlike Romney and Gingrich, Santorum has never dabbled with eco-radicals like John Holdren, Al Gore and Nancy Pelosi. He hasn’t written any “Contracts with the Earth”

Santorum is strong on border security, national security, and defense. Mitt the Flip-Flopper and Open Borders-Pandering Newt have been far less trustworthy on immigration enforcement.

Santorum is an eloquent spokesperson for the culture of life. He has been savaged and ridiculed by leftist elites for upholding traditional family values — not just in word, but in deed…Of course, Santorum is not perfect. As I’ve said all along, every election cycle is a Pageant of the Imperfects. He lost his Senate re-election bid in 2006, an abysmal year for conservatives. He was a go-along, get-along Big Government Republican in the Bush era. He supported No Child Left Behind, the prescription drug benefit entitlement, steel tariffs, and earmarks and outraged us movement conservatives by endorsing RINO Arlen Specter over stalwart conservative Pat Toomey.

Check out the entire piece, including her links in the article here.

I just returned from almost two weeks in Florida where the next primary will be held in the contest for the Republican nomination for president. In the rapid up-and-down performance of the leading GOP candidates, Mitt Romney seems to have pulled ahead to a comfortable lead over his major remaining challenger, Newt Gingrich, in the opinion polls just prior to the voting on January 31.

Only a month ago, such a prospect was viewed as the likely final electoral episode of the 2012 GOP nominating campaign. After winning Iowa and New Hampshire, and leading in South Carolina, it was then thought that Mitt Romney would be the presumptive nominee of his party.

What happened subsequently, however, has shaken this presumption.First, Rick Santorum, following a recount of the Iowa caucus ballots, was declared the winner in Iowa. Perhaps this has little substantive meaning, but in the words of Mr. Romney, “A win is a win.” Second, Newt Gingrich, following stunning debate performances in South Carolina, came from behind to win the state’s primary by 13 points. Third, Mr. Romney, who had been rarely attacked by his rival previously, became a target on issues of his work as CEO at Bain Capital, and for his failure to make public his tax returns.

Now, with South Carolina in the past, Mr. Romney has provided his most recent tax returns, defended his record at Bain Capital while accusing his attackers of betraying conservative principles, and counterattacked Mr. Gingrich again (as he did in Iowa) with tough ads and comments. Whereas Mr. Romney has seemed on the defensive in South Carolina, it is Mr. Gingrich who seems to be spending too much time defending himself in Florida.

And so it goes. First Romney, then a succession of poll “bubbles” for Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Gingrich and even Rick Santorum. Then Romney again. Then Gingrich again. And now Romney again. Is there any reason to think this is the end of the contest?

While four straight wins for Romney might have overwhelmed the field and made his nomination inevitable, the present “standings” do not indicate inevitability. The winner of Florida wins all 50 delegates, but Florida, one of the largest states, originally had 100 delegates before it was penalized for scheduling its primary so early. Mr. Romney will also win all of Virginia’s 40 delegates because most of his opponents, including Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Santorum failed to qualify for the Virginia primary ballot. But more than 40 state primaries and caucuses remain, and most of the national delegates have not been chosen. “Super Tuesday” is about a month away, and many of its primaries are Southern states where Mr. Gingrich might yet do well (as he did in South Carolina). A campaign calendar with a contest not dissimilar to Barack Obama vs. Hillary Clinton in 2008 is quite possible.

Why is this so? It is so because the the 2012 contest for the GOP presidential nomination has become a contest between the basic factions of the Republican Party. Mr. Romney, it has become obvious, is the candidate not only of the Republican “establishment.” but of the more moderate wing of the conservative base of the party. Not all of these were necessarily his supporters at the beginning of the contest. Mr. Gingrich has become the candidate of most of the grass roots conservative wing of the party, including many in the powerful “Tea Party” movement. Not all of these were necessarily his supporters at the campaign outset, but with the other major conservative candidates withdrawing, he has received most of their support. Mr. Santorum, who is now a distant third in the race, continues to receive a large share of the religious and social conservative vote, but it remains to be seen how long he can stay in the race without sufficient funds and organization. Ron Paul, the only other remaining candidate, is in fourth place, and seems to be stuck at a popular vote that is under ten percent. He occasionally does better than that, especially in caucus states, but he has no reasonable chance to win the nomination.

So it will be two-person race, with two other and trailing candidates, from now until June. One of the two leaders is likely to clinch the nomination by then, as Mr. Obama barely did over Mrs. Clinton in 2008. but the Florida results, even if Mr. Romney wins by double digits. are not likely going to resolve the GOP nomination.

High profile Republicans associated with grass roots conservative and “Tea Party” voter sympathies, including Fred Thompson, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, and perhaps most significantly, Sarah Palin, have endorsed Mr. Gingrich. Leading conservative voices such as Sean Hannity and recently, Rush Limbaugh, have defended him. Each of them have reinforced the notion that Mr. Gingrich is being unfairly attacked by the
“Republican establishment.” The “Tea Party” supporters played a significant role in the landslide victories of Republicans in the 2010 midterm elections. In order to win in 2012, Republicans need these grass roots voters and activists to be enthusiastic not only for their presidential candidate, but for their congressional candidates as well.

Mr. Romney remains the favorite to win the nomination. Republicans are still favored to keep control of the U.S. house of representatives and win control of the U.S. senate. The economy, seemingly enjoying a short-term upswing, remains problematic, especially its chronic unemployment. World economic and political conditions remain perilous. Yet none of this leads automatically to Republican victory in November. Mr. Romney needs to gain the trust, as well as the enthusiasm, of his party base and of more independent voters if he is to prevail.

Newt Gingrich may have more political lives than the proverbial cat. His challenge in 2012 touches the heart of the conservative impulse in American politics, and in the desire, across party lines. for dramatic change in the way government does business.

The true secret in modern American presidential politics is the story a candidate tells voters. That story includes his or her past, but it vitally also tells his or her story of the future. Part of the reason Mr Gingrich keeps coming back, with all of his personal “baggage” and controversies, is not just that he is the best debater. It is also because he is, as was Mr. Obama in 2008, a superb storyteller.

The Romney campaign, and its candidate, has to learn to tell a better story if they want the keys to that certain residence on Pennsylvania Avenue next January.
________________________________________________________________

-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site.

According to the Wall Street Journal, last night at a campaign stop in Lutz, Florida Newt Gingrich had this to say:

A pugnacious Newt Gingrich reiterated his intention to stay in the Republican presidential primary “all the way to the convention,” telling reporters Sunday morning that he believed that “this is going to be a straight-out contest for the next four or five months” between him and Mitt Romney.

Mr. Gingrich said after attending a morning service with 2,000 worshipers at the Exciting Idlewild Baptist Church that he didn’t agree with polls that show him trailing in Florida, and in any case, he’s not bowing out of the race.

“I think that the election will be substantially closer than the two polls that came out this morning,” he said, adding that he was eying support for Rick Santorum as potential source of votes in the coming months. “When you add the two conservatives together we clearly beat Romney,” Mr. Gingich said. “I think Romney’s got a very real challenge trying to get a majority at the convention.”

…

Mr. Gingrich knocked back suggestions that prolonging the primary campaign could damage the party’s chances in November. “The long campaign of 2008 between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama led them to win the presidency. There’s no reason that a long campaign has to be a bad thing,” he said.

“This is a campaign about the future of America and the future of the Republican party. Do you want an insider who’s part of the city which has been accepting huge amounts of taxpayer money to prop up giant institutions or do you want somebody who’s prepared to challenge our system head on and insist on very dramatic change in Washington? I think that’s worth a serious debate and I think that debate will go all the way to the convention.”

The only thing bigger than Newt Gingrich’s mouth is his ego. Assuming the leads for Romney in Florida hold true for thirty-six more hours, Mitt Romney will be our nominee. It will be all over but the shouting.

Apparently, Newt Gingrich intends to do a lot of shouting.

Let me count the ways that Newt’s moon-colored glasses are not allowing him to see reality here:

1. “Mr. Gingrich said… he didn’t agree with polls that show him trailing in Florida.”

Of course Newt Gingrich is not losing Florida! How could Newt Gingrich be losing Florida? There must be something inherently wrong with the last eleven polls from the state showing Romney winning now, because everybody knows there can’t be anything wrong with Newt Gingrich. Of course, living in this obtuse state of denial easily reminds one of the well-worn political axiom: everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts. It is also strangely reminiscent of Mike Huckabee’s declaration in 2008: “I believe in miracles, not math.” I’d advise Gingrich to learn Huckabee’s lesson: math is what takes you to the nomination, not denial of reality.

2. “When you add the two conservatives together we clearly beat Romney.”

Well, let’s test this theory of yours, shall we, Newt? Rasmussen Reports – specifically one of the polls Newt mentioned – has Romney at 44% this morning. Gingrich + Santorum combine for 40%. Oops. The other poll, from NBC/Marist, has Mitt sitting at 42%. Gingrich and Santorum account for a total of 43% — technically more, but certainly not “clearly” so, as Newt intoned.

3. “I think Romney’s got a very real challenge trying to get a majority at the convention.”

As much as a brokered convention is a political nerd’s dream, it is simply not going to happen. I’ll cover this more in a post later this week. Suffice it to say Gingrich is dreaming while grasping at straws here.

4. Mr. Gingrich knocked back suggestions that prolonging the primary campaign could damage the party’s chances in November. “The long campaign of 2008 between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama led them to win the presidency.

As noted here on Race before, and at other blogs as well, there is a massively important idea that Gingrich is missing in his assessment here. Although Hillary and Barack were locked in combat for five months, it never got nearly as ugly as the Gingrich/Romney battle has gotten. Hillary had plenty of ammunition with which to attack Obama; she chose not to use most of the damaging attacks at all, and chose to use other attacks sparingly. She refrained from attacking Obama from the right (for instance, on BAIPA) and didn’t use attacks that ended up in RNC television ads. In short, she did not utilize scorched-earth tactics against the eventual party nominee; that is why it didn’t harm Obama’s electoral chances. Obama emerged from the Democratic nomination process as a victor; if Gingrich continues his desperate and deceitful assault on Romney for the next five months Romney may come out as damaged goods.

And that’s not to say there is no value in a bruising primary. There most certainly is, and people can be stronger general election candidates because of it. But when a GOP primary contender consistently has his attacks echoed in DNC talking points and advertisements, five more months of it will only cause harm to our eventual nominee. And if you think Newt’s attacks are desperate now, wait until you see what he’ll be coming up with five months down the road…

5. “This is a campaign about the future of America and the future of the Republican party. Do you want an insider who’s part of the city which has been accepting huge amounts of taxpayer money to prop up giant institutions or do you want somebody…”

I have to admit, I chortled a little bit out loud when I read this part. For Newt Gingrich, the ultimate Washington insider, to try and cast this race as an Insider (Romney) versus an outsider (Gingrich) is simply beyond the pale, and I still have a hard time believing he’s attempting this tact. It’s unbelievable, in a really humorous sort of way.

And so, in a single speech in Florida, Newt Gingrich has managed to illustrate exactly what is wrong with his campaign. Here’s hoping his ego is deflated enough after a slew of losses to do the right thing – for the Republican Party and, ultimately, the country.

On a lighter note…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK3wMFiSq8U[/youtube]

It’s not available publicly yet, but Nate Silver got a look at the latest We Ask America poll done tonight and set to be released tomorrow:

We Ask America Florida Primary Survey

• Romney – 50% (34)
• Gingrich – 28% (32)
• Santorum – 12% (9)
• Paul – 10% (8)

Survey of likely voters was conducted Jan 29. Numbers from the poll conducted Jan 23 are in parentheses.

SurveyUSA Florida Primary Survey

• Romney – 41% (36)
• Gingrich – 26% (25)
• Paul – 12% (7)
• Santorum – 12% (17)

Favorability Ratings (Among GOP Voters)

• Santorum – 48/13
• Romney – 54/24
• Gingrich – 44/33
• Paul – 23/34

Survey of 500 registered GOP voters was conducted Jan 27-29. Numbers from the poll conducted Jan 8 are in parentheses.