From the official release:

For me, this endorsement comes down to trust. I am endorsing Governor Romney because I trust him to do the right thing. He has the strength of conviction to do the right thing regardless of opposition. America needs a president who is not a Washington Insider. America needs a president who hasn’t been playing the game for the last three decades. America needs a president who can turn our economy around, put Americans back to work, and will lead with stability, integrity and the values that we hold dear. I am confident Mitt Romney will be that president.

Consider this our overnight open thread. So have at it, anything goes…

This Sunday, I attended a Rick Perry event at a coffee shop in Ames, IA. His campaign billed it as a meet-and-greet, but it ended shortly after the Governor’s speech, as Occupy protestors began heckling him. This prompted his campaign workers to usher him out of the room and the building, as supporters and other attendees began arguing with the Occupiers, which made for a generally unpleasant scene.

Still, I figured I would pass along the contents of the talk Perry gave, as it provides a glimpse into the messaging he has adopted on the campaign trail – which he has hit hard, complete with a 44-town bus tour he kicked off this week.

After taking the stage and offering the general pleasantries you’d expect, Perry delved deeply into the topic of federalism. In fact, he spent more time on this issue than any other, connecting it to health care and education. His campaign feels strongly about his record and level of comfort with federalism, so it should come as no surprise that he focused intently on it at this event and the recent Huckabee forum.

He then moved on to energy subsidies, arguing in no uncertain terms that the government should not “pick winners and losers” and should instead allow the market to select the most cost-effective and efficient form of energy. Contrary to what many would expect from a candidate basing his entire campaign on Iowa, he did not shelter ethanol from these statements, making it clear that he would opt to eliminate all energy subsidies.

He next discussed regulation. Like the other Republican candidates, he asserted that the federal government’s red tape has hindered job creation and overall economic output. He also brought the issue down to a personal level, explaining how regulation has increased the average price of a John Deere tractor – a nice little twist for a candidate in the Hawkeye State.

For the remainder of his address, he assumed a distinctly conservative populist posture, assailing the ties between Wall St. and Washington (and repeating his debate line that you can trace America’s problems on a map, from Wall St. to D.C.) and the recent revelations of insider trading by members of Congress. He then touted his outsider status, affirming that he would wield the veto pen on a regular basis – another familiar talking point of his campaign.

All in all, Perry performed much better in this setting than in the debates, which, obviously, doesn’t exactly say a whole lot (although, I might add that I considered Saturday night his best debate to date). It seems that he and his team believe he has found his voice on the trail, with his ads and overall messaging assuming the aforementioned conservative populist positioning. I happen to have a contact who works for the campaign, and they consider the race wide open, with the Governor still having a very real chance to pull out a victory. We’ll continue to see a lot of Perry as long as his campaign coffers will allow.

NBC/WSJ 2012 Presidential Poll

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

• Newt Gingrich 40% {13%} (8%) [5%] {8%} (6%) [11%] {13%} (10%)
• Mitt Romney 23% {28%} (23%) [23%] {30%} (30%) [21%] {21%} (19%)
• Ron Paul 9% {10%} (11%) [9%] {9%} (7%)
• Michele Bachmann 8% {4%} (5%) [8%] {16%} (3%) [5%]
• Rick Perry 6% {10%} (16%) [38%] {11%} (8%)
• Jon Huntsman 5% {0%} (3%) [2%] {2%] (1%)
• Rick Santorum 3% {2%} (1%) [3%] {3%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (3%)

Second Choice

• Mitt Romney 26% {20%} (21%) [18%] {19%}
• Newt Gingrich 17% {14%} (13%) [9%] {6%}
• Ron Paul 13% {10%} (6%) [5%] {9%}
• Michele Bachmann 11% {10%} (10%) [17%] {15%}
• Rick Perry 10% {12%} (12%) [19%] {9%}
• Rick Santorum 8% {3%} (3%) [4%] {3%}
• Jon Huntsman 6% {2%} (5%) [2%] {3%}

(more…)

From the Huffington Post:

Conservative radio host Michael Savage has offered Newt Gingrich $1 million to drop out of the Republican primary race.

Savage posted the announcement on his website, and will go over the specific terms during his radio show on Monday.

He wrote that the Republican primary race has come down to two candidates: Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. He said that Romney was the only candidate capable of beating President Barack Obama in the general election. Therefore, he has offered Gingrich $1 million to “drop out of the presidential race for the sake of the nation.”

This does remind me a little bit of a 1990s Robert Redford movie.  However, Gingrich isn’t hard up for cash (he got all he needed from Freddie Mac)  and this would probably be illegal for him to do.  So Savage is trying for publicity and I’ll give him publicity as an insincere snake oil salesman trying to sell books and gain market share on the radio.

If you have a million dollars and you really think Mitt Romney should be the GOP nominee, give the money to a pro-Romney Super PAC, don’t make a silly offer that you know Newt Gingrich won’t agree to.

From CNN:

Craig Bergman, Iowa campaign director for GOP presidential front-runner Newt Gingrich, stepped down from his role Tuesday amid reports he made a controversial comment about Mormonism.

“He made a comment to a focus group prior to becoming an employee that is inconsistent with Newt 2012′s pledge to run a positive and solutions orientated campaign,” said R.C. Hammond, press secretary for Gingrich.

According to the Des Moines Register, Bergman called Mormonism a ‘cult’ on Wednesday when talking to a focus group. The newspaper attributed the remark to The Iowa Republican, a conservative news website.

“A lot of the evangelicals believe God would give us four more years of Obama just for the opportunity to expose the cult of Mormon,” Bergman reportedly said. “There’s a thousand pastors ready to do that.”

PPP (D) Virginia 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Newt Gingrich 41% {8%}
• Mitt Romney 15% {18%}
• Michele Bachmann 8% {21%}
• Rick Perry 8% {18%}
• Rick Santorum 6%
• Ron Paul 6% {7%}
• Jon Huntsman 3% {2%}
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 12% {13%}

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 43%
• Might end up supporting someone else 57%

Second Choice

• Mitt Romney 15%
• Newt Gingrich 13%
• Michele Bachmann 10%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Rick Santorum 8%
• Rick Perry 8%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Gary Johnson 2%
• Someone else/Not sure 31%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Newt Gingrich 64% [54%] (64%) / 24% [29%] (20%) {+40%}
• Mitt Romney 46% {50%} [58%] (63%) / 40% {32%} [23%] (22%) {+6%}
• Michele Bachmann 41% {46%} / 37% {34%} {+4%}
• Rick Perry 37% {44%} / 43% {18%} {-6%}
• Ron Paul 32% / 49% {-17%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 33%
• No 52%

Survey of 350 Republican primary voters was conducted December 11-13, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 72% Republican; 25% Independent/Other; 3% Democrat.  Political ideology: 43% {43%} [38%] Very conservative; 35% {33%} [38%] Somewhat conservative; 17% {19%} [18%] Moderate; 3% {1%} [2%] Very liberal; 2% {4%} [3%] Somewhat liberal.  Results from the poll conducted July 21-24, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Here are the full results of the Pew Poll that Tommy wrote about earlier today:

Pew Research 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Newt Gingrich 33% (16%) {8%} [3%] (11%)
• Mitt Romney 21% (23%) {22%} [21%] (21%)
• Ron Paul 8% (8%) {12%} [9%] (8%)
• Michele Bachmann 6% (5%) {6%} [11%]
• Rick Perry 4% (8%) {17%} [12%]
• Rick Santorum 3% (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 3% (1%) {1%} [2%]

Very Likely Republican Primary Voters

• Newt Gingrich 35%
• Mitt Romney 21%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Rick Perry 5%
• Michele Bachmann 5%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Jon Huntsman 2%

Apart from who you would like to see nominated, which Republican candidate do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama next November?

• Newt Gingrich 35% (13%)
• Mitt Romney 28% (30%)
• Rick Perry 2% (6%)
• Ron Paul 2% (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% (0%)
• Michele Bachmann 1% (1%)
• Rick Santorum 1% (0%)

Survey of 504 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, including a subsample of 392 very likely GOP primary voters, was conducted December 7-11, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points among all registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents; +/- 6.0 percentage points among very likely GOP primary voters.  Results from the poll conducted November 9-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 22 – October 4, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 20-24, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 8-14, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

First Read has the story:

Donald Trump withdrew Tuesday as the moderator of a debate planned for later this month in Iowa, citing his interest in possibly still running for president as an independent.

Trump pulled out of a debate he had planned to host along with the conservative magazine Newsmax, scheduled for Dec. 27, just days before the Iowa caucuses. All the GOP presidential candidates save for Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum said they would not participate.

“The Republican Party candidates are very concerned that sometime after the final episode of The Apprentice, on May 20th, when the equal time provisions are no longer applicable to me, I will announce my candidacy for President of the United States as an Independent and that, unless I conclusively agree not to run as an Independent, they will not agree to attend or be a part of the Newsmax debate scheduled for December 27, 2011,” Trump said in a statement. “It is very important to me that the right Republican candidate be chosen to defeat the failed and very destructive Obama Administration, but if that Republican, in my opinion, is not the right candidate, I am not willing to give up my right to run as an Independent candidate. Therefore, so that there is no conflict of interest within the Republican Party, I have decided not to be the moderator of the Newsmax debate. The American people are embarrassed by the gridlock currently taking place in Washington. I must leave all of my options open because, above all else, we must make America great again!”

It’s not clear whether any debate with Newsmax will go forward at all. Trump thanked Gingrich and Santorum for their willingness to participate nonetheless.

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research (R) New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 29.1% (38.8%)
• Newt Gingrich 23.9% (5.2%)
• Ron Paul 20.6% (11.1%)
• Jon Huntsman 11.3% (4.5%)
• Michele Bachmann 3.7% (5.4%)
• Rick Santorum 2.4%
• Rick Perry 0.5% (1.8%)
• Someone else 2.4% (1.8%)
• No opinion 6.1% (7.3%)

Survey of 521 likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters was conducted December 12, 2011. Results from the poll conducted October 16, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research (R) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Newt Gingrich 27.1% (28.1%) {14.5%} [11.7%] (12.1%)
• Ron Paul 16.5% (13.3%) {11.4%} [8.7%] (9.6%)
• Rick Perry 13.2% (6.6%) {8.8%} [5.6%] (5.8%)
• Mitt Romney 11.9% (11.5%) {18.7%} [14.9%] (18.1%)
• Michele Bachmann 10.3% (10.1%) {5.4%} [7.8%] (11.0%)
• Rick Santorum 6.8% (3.3%) {3.4%}
• Jon Huntsman 3.6% [1.9%] (0.9%)
• Someone else 1.4% (3.2%) {1.7%} [5.5%] (3.0%)
• No opinion 9.2% (14.1%) {12.8%} [14.2%] (13.1%)

Survey of 517 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted December 12, 2011.  Results from the poll conducted November 28, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 8, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 3, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 16, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Rasmussen New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 33% {34%} [41%] (39%)
• Newt Gingrich 22% {24%} [8%] (4%)
• Ron Paul 18% {14%} [11%] (13%)
• Jon Huntsman 10% {11%} [7%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 3% {2%} [4%] (18%)
• Michele Bachmann 3% {2%} [3%] (5%)
• Rick Santorum 3% {1%} [1%] (2%)

Survey of 721 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 12, 2011. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 21, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Forty-seven percent (47%) of New Hampshire GOP primary voters are now certain of how they will vote, up from 42% two weeks ago. Just over half (53%) say they could change their minds between now and the January 10 primary.

Romney also remains the candidate best-liked by New Hampshire GOP primary voters: 27% share a Very Favorable opinion of him. Nineteen percent (19%) view Paul Very Favorably, while 16% hold a Very Favorable impression of Gingrich. Perry and Santorum are the least-liked with Very Favorables of four percent (4%) and nine percent (9%) respectively.

A plurality of New Hampshire Republican voters (45%) thinks Romney would be the strongest opponent against President Obama in the general election, while 29% say that of Gingrich and 10% of Paul. Thirty-one percent (31%) view Bachmann as the weakest general election candidate, but 20% say that of Paul. On the national level, Gingrich is the clear favorite among GOP voters as the strongest opponent to Obama.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of New Hampshire GOP primary voters believe the candidates’ performances in debates are at least somewhat important to how they vote, but just 27% see them as Very Important. Thirty-one percent (31%) believe there have been too many debates so far, but 52% say there’s been about the right amount.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

According to PPP, Ron Paul is about to overtake Newt Gingrich as the new frontrunner in the state of Iowa:

There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.

Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he’s also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he’s now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%.

Public Policy Polling: GOP Iowa Caucus

• Newt Gingrich 22%
• Ron Paul 21%
• Mitt Romney 16%
• Michele Bachman 11%
• Rick Perry 9%
• Rick Santorum 8%
• Jon Huntsman 5%
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Undecided/Not Sure 7%

PPP surveyed 555 likely GOP caucus goers from December 11th through 13th, with 4.2 MoE.

From the Pew Research Center:

Newt Gingrich holds a substantial 35% to 21% lead over Mitt Romney among Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters who say they are very likely to vote in the GOP primaries or caucuses. But clear majorities say there is at least a chance they would vote for either Gingrich or Romney in Republican primaries in their state. None of the other Republican candidates draws nearly as much potential support.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press was conducted Dec. 7-11 among 1, 521 adults, including 392 likely Republican primary voters. It finds that 70% support Gingrich or say there is a chance they would vote for him. Romney trails Gingrich for the nomination, but as many as 61% of likely Republican primary voters either support Romney or say there is a chance they could support him.

Just 18% of likely Republican primary voters say there is no chance they could support Gingrich and only somewhat more (26%) say there is no chance they could vote for Romney. More than four-in-ten likely Republican primary voters have effectively ruled out voting for the other GOP candidates.

The survey finds that neither Gingrich nor Romney is drawing much in the way of strong support. Just 29% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who favor Gingrich for the nomination support him strongly; 69% support him “only moderately.” Similarly, far fewer GOP voters support Romney strongly (33%) than support him only moderately (66%). Support for both Gingrich and Romney is softer than was support for the leading GOP candidates four years ago.

Do you think Rep. Newt Gingrich mentioned it during his embrace of Chairman Arafat?

The embrace, the source said, came after Arafat met with 20 to 25 House leaders over coffee. Jotting notes down in a yellow pad, Gingrich used the meeting to pitch Arafat on how best to actually construct a Palestinian state. “He said, ‘Look, here is what I think you need — an economic plan – and here is how it will work,’” the operative recalled. “It was a very positive contribution at the time and as they stood up, there were pictures.”

In the background of the picture is Rep. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.), a long-serving Arab-American congressman, whose office confirmed that the meeting did take place.

At the time the picture was taken, relations between Palestinian political authorities and Israeli officials — and those same authorities and U.S. officials — were at a starkly different place than they are today. Arafat had attained an elevated status for having pledged to move away from his terrorist past. The Oslo Accords, which set up a process meant to end in a final agreement between the Palestinian Liberation Organization and the Israeli government, were being hailed as a historic breakthrough. U.S. politicians of all stripes were upbeat.

“I think if the elected head of the Israeli government and the leader of the PLO can find a way to get together and if they are joined by, as it seems possible, Jordan and maybe even some concessions by Syria, I think it would be pretty ridiculous for us to then back off and not at least try to help them make it happen,” Gingrich told CNN ten days before that photo was taken. “I don’t think we should pressure Israel. But if Israel decides — the Israeli government decides it’s going to try to do something, I don’t think we ought to be in the position to block it.”

Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Daily Tracking Poll

• Newt Gingrich 31% (33%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {34%} [36%] (37%)
• Mitt Romney 22% (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [23%] (22%)
• Ron Paul 8% (8%) {9%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (8%)
• Rick Perry 7% (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
• Michele Bachmann 6% (6%) {5%} [6%] (6%) {7%} [6%] (6%)
• Rick Santorum 4% (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)

Survey of at least 1,000 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted December 8-12, 2011. The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in Results from the poll conducted December 6-10, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 3-7, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 2-6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 1-5, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

FDU PublicMind 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 46% [45%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 42% [39%] (43%)

• Barack Obama 48% [50%] (52%)
• Newt Gingrich 42% [30%] (37%)

• Barack Obama 50%
• Jon Huntsman 32%

• Barack Obama 53%
• Rick Perry 35%

• Barack Obama 54% [48%]
• Ron Paul 35% [35%]

• Barack Obama 55% [52%]
• Rick Santorum 34% [33%]

• Barack Obama 57% [51%]
• Michele Bachmann 30% [32%]

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Approve 45% [47%] (44%)
• Disapprove 46% [45%] (48%)

Among Democrats

• Approve 74% [78%] (74%)
• Disapprove 16% [16%] (17%)

Among Republicans

• Approve 10% [12%] (13%)
• Disapprove 84% [82%] (81%)

Among Independents

• Approve 36% [39%] (39%)
• Disapprove 48% [50%] (53%)

National survey of 855 registered voters was conducted November 29 – December 5, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 34% [36%] (31%) Democrat; 23% [24%] (23%) Republican; 39% [35%] (41%) Independent; 3% [5%] (4%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted June 1-7, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 21-28, 2011 are in parentheses

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 43% (44%) {44%} [39%] (41%) {42%} [44%]
• Ron Paul 35% (35%) {34%} [38%] (37%) {34%} [35%]

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted December 10-11, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 28-29, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 24-25, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-16, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 26-27, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 20-21, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted between January 17-18, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Paul is favored by 59% of Republicans, while the president has the support of 80% of Democrats. Voters not affiliated with either political party are evenly divided, but nearly one-out-of-three (32%) of these voters like some other candidate or are undecided.

Obama holds a 10-point lead over Paul among women. Men break even between the candidates. Voters under the age of 40 strongly prefer the president, while older voters are more narrowly divided.

Eighty percent (80%) of liberals and a plurality (49%) of moderates support Obama. Paul earns support from 58% of conservatives.

Paul leads Obama by 12 points among military veterans, but Obama beats Paul by the same margin among those who have not served in the military.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

In the pursuit of relevant and rational discourse in the comments, can we agree to keep this in mind when making concrete declarations of who can and who cannot beat Obama next November?

The contrasting conditions of the nation’s two major political parties — discouraged Democrats and resurgent Republicans — underscore how different Obama’s re-election campaign is from the contest four years ago.

Consider the math: In 2008, when Obama carried the swing states by 8 percentage points, Democrats there swamped Republicans in party identification by 11 points. Now, that partisan edge has tightened to a statistically insignificant 2 points

And the “enthusiasm gap” that helped fuel a Democratic victory last time has turned into a Republican asset. Sixty-one percent of Republicans say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president next year, compared with 47% of Democrats.

Among the most enthusiastic are some of the GOP’s core voters: conservatives, middle-aged men and those 50 to 64 years old. Those who are least enthused include core Democratic groups that were critical to Obama’s election in 2008, including minorities and younger voters.

Since the heady days of 2008, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll finds the number of voters who identify themselves as Democratic or Democratic-leaning in these key states has eroded, down by 4 percentage points, while the ranks of Republicans have climbed by 5 points.

Republican voters also are more attentive to the campaign, more enthusiastic about the election and more convinced that the outcome matters.

U.S. presidential elections which include a sitting President are always a referendum on the incumbent. Always. With the country mired in economic malaise and suffering from chronic long-term unemployment, this election will certainly be no different. As long as the GOP nominates someone that the general public deems capable, both intellectually and physically, of the demands of the job, the Republican Party will be fine. Both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich qualify in this regard in my estimation.

FDU PublicMind 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Newt Gingrich 36% (12%)
• Mitt Romney 23% (28%)
• Rick Perry 6%
• Ron Paul 4% (6%)
• Michele Bachmann 4% (8%)
• Rick Santorum 3% (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Unsure 14% (27%)

Second Choice

• Mitt Romney 24%
• Newt Gingrich 21%
• Michele Bachmann 10%
• Rick Perry 9%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Rick Santorum 5%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Unsure 16%

Which candidate for president is your least favorite?

• Ron Paul 17%
• Michele Bachmann 13%
• Rick Perry 13%
• Jon Huntsman 10%
• Mitt Romney 6%
• Newt Gingrich 6%
• Rick Santorum 4%
• Unsure 14%

National survey of 545 registered Republican and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted November 29 – December 5, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted June 1-7, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Good news for Rep. Michele Bachmann’s hopes in Iowa. From CBN:

At a media availability in just moments at the State Capitol in Des Moines Iowa, a group of about 25 pastors will get behind Rep. Michele Bachmann. A campaign release, leaked early to The Brody File, says the group of pastors and faith community leaders will say Bachmann is a “biblically qualified, capable, no-compromise” leader.

The pastors include Brad Sherman of Coralville, Brad Cranston of Burlington, Michael Demastus of Des Moines, Matt Floyd of Osceola, Bill Tvedt of Oskaloosa, Richard Kessler of Richland, Jamie Strickler of Fairfield an Bernie Hays of Cedar Rapids. The group also includes Tamara Scott of Norwalk, and former state Rep. Danny Carroll of Grinnell.

In the release, Pastor Matt Floyd said, “The Scriptures make it clear that we should choose leaders who fear God, are capable, trustworthy and keep his commandments. Michele Bachmann does exactly that.”

And Tamara Scott said, “We’ve longed for a candidate who wouldn’t compromise on liberty, morality, or national sovereignty. We now have one, only one, and it’s time we support her. Christians understand our duty is to vote virtue and leave the results to God. Thankfully, the Davids and Gideons of the Bible didn’t look to pollsters or pundits for their success and neither should we.”

Some members of this group will tour the state over the next three days.

While many on the right have spent the last weeks hacking away at Newt Gingrich’s perch at the top of the GOP heap, two big names have stepped forward and given the campaign some encouragement, if not support.

First, former Vice President Dick Cheney warned others not to underestimate Newt. He told CNN:

On Monday, Cheney said on CNN’s “OutFront,” “[Gingrich] was persistent and he was tenacious and he kept it up and kept it up and kept it up and finally by ’94 he’s the newly elected speaker of the House of Representatives with the Republican majority. I wouldn’t underestimate him.”

“My gut tells me right now as I look at it that Gingrich might actually be the stronger candidate.” said Rudy Giuliani on CNN last night, “I think he can make a broader connection than Mitt Romney, as I said, to the — to those Reagan Democrats where you won’t have this barrier of possible elitism that I think Obama could exploit pretty effectively.”

The Hammer puts the screws to Newt Gingrich over his “occupy” style attack on Mitt Romney’s business career.

“But I though what was remarkable is what Newt did today. It wasn’t just that he went negative. He pulled out the heavy artillery on this on his attack on Romney. I am with the commentary that Brit Hume did earlier in the show. What kind of attack is this of one so-called person of the right to another? What conception of capitalism do you have if you attacking your opponent for entering what is the risk taking of capitalism? It’s the old line from Schumpeter which is that capitalism is creative destruction. And this kind of attack is what you’d expect from a socialist,” Krauthammer continued.

“A person goes to capitalist system, he succeeds, he fails. You get a bankruptcy, you get people laid off, but is that a way to attack a fellow conservative? I think that is quite remarkable and telling. And it makes you wonder about the core ideology of Newt himself,” he said.

Krauthammer then suggests that instead of attacking Romney, Gingrich should defend what he did to earn $1.5-$1.8 million from Freddie Mac.

Watch the video here.

How did this not come out in 2008?

Yesterday, we posted an Iowa poll from the University of Iowa. It showed Gingrich with a nine and a half point lead (29.8 to 20.3) over Romney, who was in second place. However, there was an aspect of the poll that wasn’t reported here: the decline in Gingrich’s support that the poll captured.

The poll was conducted over a one week period. According to Reuters, who co-sponsored the poll, during the first half of the survey Gingrich clocked in at a whopping 37.7%; however, during the last three days of polling, he had fallen to 24.4% — a decline of 13.3% in a matter of days.

The pollsters even concluded, “[O]ur results show that his support may be starting to slide, as it has with previous frontrunners.”

It will be really interesting to watch the polls from the Hawkeye State over the next couple of weeks and see what happens…

UPDATE: Here are the results from just the final three days of the poll:

• Gingrich – 24.4%
• Romney – 19.3%
• Paul – 13.0%
• Perry – 10.4%
• Bachmann – 7.4%
• Sanoturm – 7.0%
• Huntsman – 0.7%
• Undecided – 13.8%

As my colleague Matt Coulter pointed out on another thread, Newt Gingrich today launched an attack on Gov. Mitt Romney’s business career that seemed to mirror the talking points of both Democrats and Occupy Wall Street.

“I would just say that if Gov. Romney would like to give back all of the money he’s earned from bankrupting companies and laying off employees over his years at Bain, that I would be glad to listen to him. I’ll bet you $10, not $10,000, that he won’t take the offer,” Gingrich told reporters.

Of course, like much of what Newt Gingrich says today, it simply does not match what he has said in the past. From this February:

This man clearly has no intention of running for president:

Criticizing a recent Obama administration decision, Mayor Bloomberg said Monday that the Plan B morning-after contraceptive should be available over the counter to young teenage girls.

Bloomberg voiced his opinion during a question-and-answer session with reporters prior to a job promotion event in Queens.

Interestingly, the event was attended by the federal official responsible for the controversial policy decision, health secretary Kathleen Sebelius.

“It would be much better if these young girls didn’t get pregnant, but once that happens I think this should be available,” Hizzoner told reporters.

Speaking minutes later at the same event, Sebelius said: “I felt that the data presented, and justification for [making Plan B available to\] all ages, did not match.”

This is the second time in the past few weeks that Bloomberg has publicly criticized the president, with his previous displeasure with Obama directed at the president’s inability to tackle the deficit. This, along with Bloomberg taking “Occupy Wall Street” to the woodshed, has me suspecting that the New York Mayor may decide to run a fiscally centrist, socially liberal presidential campaign aimed at educated, “creative class” voters who tend to hold diverse views on various economic issues but are generally quite socially liberal.

By all accounts, Mitt Romney has had an incredibly rocky past two or three weeks. There’s certainly a reason Gingrich has climbed to within five points of the Governor on Intrade.

But when I read this attack by Newt Gingrich against Romney today (which comes, by the way, after Gingrich promised not to attack Romney… ha…), my jaw hit the floor:

Newt Gingrich brushed off Mitt Romney’s charge that he should give back the $1.6 million that Freddie Mac paid him, speaking after a town hall in Londonderry N.H.

“I would just say that if Gov. Romney would like to give back all of the money he’s earned from bankrupting companies and laying off employees over his years at Bain, that I would be glad to listen to him. I’ll bet you $10, not $10,000, that he won’t take the offer,” Gingrich told reporters.

Un.be.lievable.

Earlier in this primary, Rick Perry pulled the class warfare card and attacked Mitt Romney for being rich. Now, Newt Gingrich is using a liberal, leftist line of attack against Romney seated in anti-capitalism sentiment.

Where has our Republican Party gone?!?

Everyone fully expected Barack Obama to attack Romney over his time at Bain during the general election. That’s what liberals do – hate on free market capitalism while ignoring all the jobs it creates.

Now, to see the new frontrunner for our party’s nomination do the same thing makes me shake my head in bewilderment. A GOP frontrunner that attacks capitalism? I’ve seen it all now… or should I say, I’ve seen enough.

I was glad to see that I wasn’t the only one feeling this way. Brit Hume of Fox News has apparently seen enough as well, declaring forcefully tonight:

Newt Gingrich’s response to Mitt Romney’s assertion that Gingrich should return the money he received as a consultant for Freddie Mac is deeply telling. Romney, Gingrich suggested, should give back the money he earned from his years working at Bain Capital – where, said Gingrich, Romney bankrupted companies and laid off workers.

Just think about that. Gingrich was paid for “strategic advice” by a government-sponsored loan company which used its government-granted competitive advantage to help build a bad mortgage house of cards that nearly brought down the entire U.S. economy when the bubble popped in 2008. Romney ran a private investment firm that acquired numerous companies in an effort to make money by making them more profitable. In some cases, there were layoffs. And some companies failed. But numerous others, including the office supply chain Staples, grew into large enterprises that created thousands of jobs.

This is the kind of risk-taking, free market capitalism that most people who call themselves conservatives applaud. Indeed, attacking Mitt Romney for engaging in it has been a staple of the left’s critique of Romney for years. So why would Newt Gingrich resort to it?

Does he really believe that what he did for Freddie Mac is similar to what Romney did at Bain? Probably not. But when Newt Gingrich feels threatened or upstaged, he sometimes reaches for whatever weapon comes to hand – and just starts swinging. Just ask Paul Ryan.

Emphasis added is mine.

21 days until Iowa…

Intrade

Romney to win GOP nomination: 43.1
Gingrich to win GOP nomination: 36.6
Huntsman to win GOP nomination: 6.4
Obama to win reelection: 50.4
Iowa Caucuses Winner: Gingrich 57.5
New Hampshire Primary Winner: Romney 69.9

Polling:

Obama Approval (RCP): 44.5% / 49.3% (-4.8%)
GOP Nomination (RCP): Gingrich +12.0
Gallup Daily Tracking GOP Nomination: Gingrich 33%, Romney 23%

And as always, have at it in the comments. Anything goes…

Mitt Romney unveiled three new endorsements today in an attempt to regain some of his lost momentum in the GOP primary race.

From the state of California, yet another congressional endorsement gets added to Romney’s pile: U.S. Rep Dana Rohrabacher. Representative Rohrabacher, a former aide to Ronald Reagan, is known for his strong anti-illegal immigration stance. His endorsement makes eight California congressional endorsements total so far, while no other candidate has managed to snag a single one yet.

In New Hampshire, well-known tea party and anti-tax activist Tom Thomson has endorsed Romney. Anytime Romney gets the endorsement of someone associated with the Tea Party it is great news for his campaign and the perception problems they are battling.

Finally, in Florida Romney picks up a conservative activist with an interesting past: Susie Wiles has endorsed Romney. Wiles was Governor Rick Scott’s campaign manager, and perhaps more interestingly was one of the Huntsman aides that abandoned ship this past summer as the Huntsman campaign flailed in the Sunshine State. (Remember, before Huntsman packed up everything out of Florida and moved full-time to New Hampshire, he had publicly claimed that Florida would be his focus and his firewall.)

These endorsements are clearly aimed at shoring up or regaining support in the early primary contests (NH and FL), as well as indicating what Romney has been saying in multiple interviews lately: that he’s in this race for the long haul (the CA primary isn’t until June; Romney has racked up by far the most impressive list of endorsers from the state of any of his rivals). Rohrabacher also gives Romney another respected immigration surrogate with which to pound Perry and Gingrich, should he desire to go that route.