Brand new campaign ad from Ron Paul 2012 that came out literally just a few minutes ago:

Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 47% (46%) {46%} [45%] (49%) {46%} [49%]
• Mitt Romney 47% (47%) {48%} [49%] (47%) {49%} [45%]

• Barack Obama 49% (52%)
• Ron Paul 44% (42%)

• Barack Obama 51% {50%} [54%]
• Newt Gingrich 43% {44%} [39%]

How about if the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, and Ron Paul running as an independent candidate for president – for whom would you vote?

• Barack Obama 42%
• Mitt Romney 32%
• Ron Paul 21%

How about if the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat and Newt Gingrich the Republican, and Ron Paul running as an independent candidate for president – for whom would you vote?

• Barack Obama 43%
• Newt Gingrich 32%
• Ron Paul 21%

Survey of registered voters was conducted December 15-18, 2011.  Results from the poll conducted October 31 – November 3, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 29 – October 2, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 29 – September 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 14-17, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 14-17, 2011 are in square brackets.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Bob Vander Plaats will be announcing the endorsement of the Family Leader, one of the most influential evangelical groups in Iowa, this morning at 11:30 eastern — or about ten minutes from now. We’ll update this post when the endorsement comes in.

UPDATE: Remember, Vander Plaats already announced that they ruled out endorsing Huntsman and Paul, and never considered endorsing Romney. So the endorsement will go to Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, or Santorum.

UPDATE II: NBC News is reporting that Rick Santorum’s national political director just arrived at the Family Leader press conference…

UPDATE III: According to a press release handed out before Vander Plaats gets up to speak, Family Leader, the organization, will remain neutral in the race. Vander Plaats will be making a personal endorsement.

UPDATE IV: Bob Vander Plaats endorses Rick Santorum, calls him “the Huckabee of this race”. Major coup for Team Santorum.

Washington Post/ABC News 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 30% (25%) {25%} [25%] (30%)
• Newt Gingrich 30% (12%) {9%} [5%] (6%)
• Ron Paul 15% (9%) {9%} [10%] (10%)
• Michele Bachmann 7% (4%) {7%} [9%] (17%)
• Rick Perry 6% (14%) {17%} [30%] (8%)
• Rick Santorum 4% (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% (1%) {1%} [1%] (3%)
• Other 0% (0%) {2%} [2%] (1%)
• No one/None of them 1% (2%) {4%} [4%] (2%)
• Would not vote 1% (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
• No opinion 4% (8%) {7%} [5%] (9%)

Second Choice

• Mitt Romney 22% (21%)
• Newt Gingrich 21% (14%)
• Ron Paul 13% (9%)
• Rick Perry 10% (11%)
• Michele Bachmann 10% (9%)
• Rick Santorum 7% (3%)
• Jon Huntsman 3% (5%)
• Other 2% (1%)
• No one/None of them 6% (4%)
• Would not vote 1% (1%)
• No opinion 5% (5%)

 

(more…)

As a transplant to the state of Iowa, my support in the primaries carries a little more weight than the average voter’s. For that reason, I have taken my time to observe and evaluate the field of Republican candidates as the race has unfolded.

Early in the campaign, I wholeheartedly backed Tim Pawlenty, even casting my vote in the Ames Straw Poll for him. After his disappointing placement and subsequent exit, I didn’t know exactly where to go. Initially, I leaned toward Mitt Romney, enticed by his potential to expand the Republican Party’s electoral reach, regain the GOP’s historical perception as the party of competence, and train his laser-like focus on the economy. However, I held off on making anything formal, wanting to see how the race evolved and seeking to maintain as much objectivity as possible for as long as possible.

Rick Perry’s entrance made things a little more interesting, with his sensational campaign kickoff speech and famed ability to connect with voters on a personal level. However, my arms-length approach to the race proved rewarding once Perry encountered his debate struggles.

As the January 3rd Iowa deadline grew nearer and nearer, I found myself going back and forth between Romney, Jon Huntsman, and Ron Paul. Romney has many traits that appeal to me, in addition to those I’ve already mentioned. However, as recent events have suggested, Mitt may, quite simply, have a serious problem with establishing an emotional, visceral connection with voters. A concerning number of Republicans (and I have seen firsthand examples of this in Iowa) frankly do not trust him. They view him as lacking guiding principles and willing to say whatever it takes to win an election. Now, I do not agree with them, but when a candidate cannot win over the individuals who should embrace him with the greatest fervor, I begin to worry. After all, despite the assertion by many Romney supporters that he makes for a poor campaigner but a tremendous executive, a president’s campaigning never truly ends; in actuality, he becomes a permanent campaigner, constantly striving to marshal public support and political capital for his agenda. Romney’s struggles to increase his base of support beyond a solid 20%, or so, of the party bodes poorly for this consideration. Furthermore, the skills he has gained and utilized to great effect in the business world – and this also applies to his experience with the Olympic games and the Massachusetts Governor’s office – wouldn’t lend themselves as well to the presidency. After all, the president has less unilateral power over the federal bureaucracy and budget than, say, a CEO has over their company or a governor has over their state budget. A president’s role much more resembles Influencer-in-Chief, and they register their greatest successes when they can tap into and meld the public mood to suit their aims.

Huntsman’s diplomatic temperament, optimistic disposition, inclusive rhetoric, fantastic tax plan, and economically based foreign policy all tugged at my heartstrings. His nomination would go a long way toward remaking the GOP into a party of ideas, as opposed to identity politics. His positions on the issues do a phenomenal job of applying conservative principles to modern issues and sensibilities. And he would make substantial inroads into the emerging demographics Republicans must desperately win back if they hope to maintain long-term viability: young voters, the creative class, suburbanites, Hispanics, and Asians. Alas, his personality appears fundamentally out of step with the current mood of the GOP, and his campaign has pursued a perplexing strategy of attacking the party as a whole from the left and Mitt Romney alone from the right, leaving him a very narrow range of possible scenarios that would result in him winning the nomination. So, in short, I really like Gov. Huntsman, but it just doesn’t appear in the cards for him.

So, where does this leave me? No candidate in the field offers the total package of electability, emphasis of the issues that matter the most to me (the deficit/debt and the economy), and supreme political skills. Kind of disheartening, but that’s what happens when superstars like Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, and Bobby Jindal don’t run. Thus, the choice becomes akin to running the ball up the middle versus throwing it deep in a football game. With President Obama gearing up for a painfully negative campaign against Romney, the “safe” route may not prove so safe. That brings me to the candidate I voted for in the 2008 Illinois Primary, Dr. Paul.

Now, I realize that many within our community will disagree with this decision. And, to steal one of President Obama’s favorite phrases, let me be clear: I don’t agree with Paul on every issue. I don’t consider myself a dyed-in-the-wool non-interventionist like him. His lack of pragmatism concerns me. His dearth of legislative accomplishments troubles me. But in the end, he is my choice for both political and practical reasons.

The number one reason I back Paul is simple: more so than any of the other candidates, he understands the sheer magnitude of our debt problem. He understands that the growth in the U.S. economy in the last half-century, or so, has essentially mirrored the growth in public and private U.S. debt. He understands that instead of perpetuating our indebtedness and delaying the inevitable de-leveraging, we should pay down our obligations as soon as possible, while we still have some control. He has outlined the most serious, aggressive plan to address the issue, cutting $1 trillion of federal spending in the first year of a Paul administration and balancing the budget by the third, without relying on optimistic growth assumptions. And while the constraints of the political system would prevent him from enacting the entirety of his proposals, his strong initial negotiating position would likely result in more progress than any of the other candidates would achieve

Again, I do not agree with all of Dr. Paul’s foreign policy, but I’ve arrived at the understanding that America cannot hope for long-term fiscal solvency while maintaining our current military posture. We simply can’t afford it. In addition to the sheer hundreds of billions we spend on defense, the possibility of securing the massive cuts we need elsewhere in the federal budget plummets if Republicans assume the negotiating position of, “Absolutely no haircuts, period, for the Pentagon”. Furthermore, with our perilous fiscal situation, we simply cannot afford to provide security umbrellas for other nations and regions of the world. Our foreign policy needs a heavy dose of reality.

Although I abhor the tactics (and most of the aims) of Occupy Wall Street, they nonetheless represent the undeniable sense of anger and distrust many Americans harbor toward our major institutions. More than any other candidate, Ron Paul speaks to these frustrations, and he can offer these individuals hope for a president who finally “gets it”, “feels their pain”, and will advance reforms that can heal these wounds and ease the palpable friction and discord in our society.

No one can deny the enthusiasm Paul has generated among young voters. A party desperately searching for a means to win back these individuals should view him as a godsend. As studies have shown, party affiliation doesn’t tend to change once it gets established. According to some pundits, voting behavior solidifies after two presidential elections. The GOP made a horrible first impression on many young Americans in 2008. We lost them once. If we lose them in 2012, we could lose an entire generation.

As media outlets have begun to report, Paul draws considerable support from Independents and Democrats. Some on this site and elsewhere in the party tend to criticize candidates who receive favorable attention from these groups. My response is, why is this a problem? We should WELCOME people not formerly registered Republican into the tent. How else can we expect to grow the party ranks? We should view Paul’s crossover appeal as a colossal strength.

Last but not least, from a broader perspective, Ron Paul would re-orient the Republican Party to focus more on a philosophy of liberty, rather than an ideology that appears contradictory and incoherent to the average non-partisan voter. Paul’s inclusive message and approach could sound like music to the ears of the aforementioned creative class, the growing numbers of suburbanites, and even some urbanites.

Sure, some electability questions surround Paul. However, with his uniqueness and the unpredictable dynamics of this race, we shouldn’t place too much stock in the conventional political wisdom should he nab the nomination. In fact, a Paul-Obama match-up could fundamentally reshape the American political landscape, tossing much of what we think we know out the window, shattering assumptions, and forging new coalitions of support we never foresaw.

In the end, even if it resulted in him losing, a Paul nomination would afford him the chance to educate millions about the cause of liberty, shatter the pro-government Keynesian myths and theories propagated by Democrats and their allies in the media, and win untold numbers of converts to a philosophy of freedom, self-determination, and self-governance.

Hat-tip: The Argo Journal

I just got the following in my email:

Mark,

The election next November will have ramifications for generations.

Neither South Carolina nor the nation can afford four more years of President Obama, and Mitt Romney is the right person to take him on and get America back on track.

He is a conservative businessman who has spent his life working in the economy, and he understands exactly how jobs are created. He is not a creature of Washington, and he knows what it means to make decisions – real decisions – not simply cast a vote.

This election isn’t about what candidates say – it’s about what they’ve done.

Our country will need real leadership to undo President Obama’s failed policies, and replace them with the conservative principles Mitt Romney learned turning around businesses and a failing Olympics and successfully, conservatively governing a Democratic state.

I am proud to endorse him and will work my hardest to ensure he is elected so we can turn around our country.

I stand with Mitt. Will you?

Best,
Governor Nikki Haley

(more…)

14 days until Iowa…

Intrade

Romney to win GOP nomination: 68.0
Ron Paul to win GOP Nomination: 8.3
Gingrich to win GOP nomination: 7.8
Huntsman to win GOP nomination: 6.5
Obama to win reelection: 51.5
Iowa Caucuses Winner: Paul 41.5 – Romney 32.9 – Rick Perry 10.0
New Hampshire Primary Winner: Romney 73.5 – Paul 15.7 – Huntsman 7.0
South Carolina Primary Winner: Romney 48.9 – Gingrich 18.0 – Perry 15.0

Polling:

Obama Approval (RCP): 45.8% / 50.0% (-4.2%)
GOP Nomination (RCP): Gingrich +4.5
Gallup Daily Tracking GOP Nomination: Gingrich 26%, Romney 24%

And as always, have at it in the comments. Anything goes…

After a zillion (any number beyond what is useful) opinion polls, and pols (and pundits) with opinions, we are now going to have some results regarding the 2012 election from the folks who count, that is, the voters.

The fluid caucus race in Iowa is turning out to be a memorable political adventure, thanks to the unprecedented pre-caucus candidate debates. After a series of poll “bubbles” which thrust Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich (in that order) forward, the final bubble appears to be that of Ron Paul, a perennial presidential candidate under various political party guises who appeals to a devoted clacque in the Hawkeye state. Iowa voters have so far resisted acclaiming the early frontrunner Mitt Romney. Unfortunately, for the Republican party and for Republicans in Iowa, a Paul caucus victory will render the state’s caucus irrelevant to the 2012 presidential contest outcome, and elevate the importance of New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida (whose primaries follow). But it’s a free country, and Iowa GOP voters will choose their own political caucus destiny.

Mr. Gingrich has challenged the conventional wisdom that grass roots organization is what counts most in Iowa, and for about two weeks, he seemed to be correct. Now his greatest hope is a “hail Mary” issue he introduced on national TV, asserting that if he is elected president, he may, if the issue is serious enough, ignore U.S. Supreme Court rulings (citing no less than Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Delano Roosevelt as his precedents). It’s an issue likely to be received well in Iowa, and I would assume that the Gingrich campaign will flood the airwaves with ads about this in the days before the caucus.

If this does not re-surge the Gingrich campaign, it would appear that the race is down to Mr. Paul and Mr. Romney. There is little expectation that Mr. Romney would win in Iowa, so if he does, and follows it with an expected triumph in New Hampshire, it could be the beginning of the “momentum” he needs to clinch the nomination.

Michele Bachmann is literally pouring it on in Iowa, and is expected to do better than her poll numbers indicate she would. Mr. Perry has spent a lot of ad money, and Mr. Santorum has worked the state relentlessly for months, so any pundit who suggests he or she can predict the outcome is probably living in a dreamland.

But why must we have a predicted winner? The important point is that at last GOP voters are speaking their minds, and will continue to do so in the GOP race until June, and then officially in Tampa.

After that, there will be an historic campaign with opposing candidates more at odds, and with more differing visions, than any in memory, and possibly, with more at stake in the lives of those who read this.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site.

USA Today/Gallup 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 50% (50%)
• Newt Gingrich 48% (44%)

• Barack Obama 50% (47%) {47%} [47%] (46%)
• Mitt Romney 48% (46%) {47%} [49%] (48%)

National survey of 898 registered voters was conducted December 15-18, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 6-7, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 26-27, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 17-18, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

According to Glen Johnson of the Boston Globe, Mitt is not ready to take his Christmas break just yet. Instead of taking the week off and doing some book signings as one of his chief competitors is doing, Mitt is making the rounds of  TV talk shows.

In the next 24 hours, Mitt will appear on:

• Bill O’Reilly’s “No Spin Zone” on Fox News.
• “Late Show with David Letterman” on CBS. Mitt will read tonight’s Top Ten List.
• “The Charlie Rose Show” on PBS. He will participate in an hour long “round table”.
• “Morning Joe” on MSNBC.

Say what you will about the man, you have to admire his work ethic. He puts everything he has into what he does.

Which is why I am often amused by those who insist that President Mitt Romney is just going to sit on his hands for four years accomplishing little of any importance.  Mitt Romney?!? The guy who can’t sit still when there’s work to be done? How little they know the man.

His discipline is not too shabby, either. For years now, he has been carefully rationing his media appearances. For example, yesterday’s appearance on “Fox News Sunday” with Chris Wallace was his first appearance on a Sunday Morning interview show since March 2010!

Because of that discipline, Mitt can now make use of all that pent-up demand during campaign crunch time when it matters the most.

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 47% {45%} [45%]
• Rick Santorum 37% {34%} [31%]

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted December 16-17, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 2-3, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 10-11, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Obama holds a 49% to 32% advantage over Santorum among female voters, but the two men run nearly even among male voters.

Voters not affiliated with either major political party support the president 42% to 36%.

Santorum draws support from 67% of conservatives and 24% of moderates. Obama is favored by 90% of liberals and 50% of moderates.

The president leads Santorum among voters under the age of 40, while voters 50 and older favor the Republican.

Santorum, a Catholic and outspoken social conservative, captures 59% of the Evangelical Christian vote and 51% of Catholics. A plurality (45%) of other Protestants and 67% of voters of other faiths prefer the president.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Clemson University South Carolina GOP Primary Poll

• Newt Gingrich 38% (10%)
• Mitt Romney 21% (22%)
• Ron Paul 10% (4%)
• Michele Bachmann 5% (3%)
• Rick Perry 5% (9%)
• Jon Huntsman 3% (1%)
• Rick Santorum 2% (1%)
• Undecided 16% (31%)

Extremely Favorable / Extremely Unfavorable {Net}

• Newt Gingrich 35% / 11% {+24%}
• Mitt Romney 25% / 10% {+15%}
• Rick Santorum 7% / 7% {0%}
• Ron Paul 12% / 13% {-1%}
• Rick Perry 10% / 12% {-2%}
• Michele Bachmann 10% / 13% {-3%}
• Jon Huntsman 5% / 10% {-5%}

Are you sure about voting for _______________ or might you change your mind before the South Carolina primary elections?

• Very sure 35% (30%)
• Might change 62% (68%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 6-19, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.Click here to view crosstabs.  Results from the poll conducted October 27 – November 7, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

CNN/ORC 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Newt Gingrich 28% [24%] (22%) {8%} [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (5%)
• Mitt Romney 28% [20%] (24%) {26%} [22%] (21%) {18%} [23%] (22%)
• Ron Paul 14% [9%] (8%) {9%} [7%] (13%) {6%} [14%] (12%)
• Michele Bachmann 8% [5%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (7%) {12%} [9%] (14%)
• Rick Perry 7% [11%] (12%) {13%} [30%] (32%) {32%} [18%] (17%)
• Rick Santorum 4% [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% [3%] (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [5%] (1%)
• Someone else (vol.) 0% [0%] (1%) {1%} [3%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
• None/No one (vol.) 5% [3%] (4%) {5%} [5%] (4%) {6%} [5%] (10%)
• No opinion 4% [2%] (4%) {4%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (2%)

Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?

• Definitely support 35% [27%] (31%) {33%}
• Might change mind 56% [67%] (61%) {67%}

 

(more…)

The Seacoast Media Group is the parent company of three New Hampshire newspapers: the Hampton Union, the Exeter News-letter and the Portsmouth Herald. On Sunday they endorsed Mitt Romney:

We believe the president’s top priority for the next four years will be restoring health and vigor to the American economy, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is the Republican candidate best suited to the task.

Romney, who launched his presidential bid at the Scammans’ Bittersweet Farm in Stratham, has proven his financial acumen at every step of his career. He mastered the art of the business turnaround at Bain & Co. in Boston and his success led to his founding of Bain Capital, a private equity fund now overseeing $65 billion in assets. Bain became a world leader by managing and investing in such well-known companies as Hospital Corp. of America, parent company of Portsmouth Regional Hospital; Burger King; Staples; Toys “R” Us; and Sports Authority, to name just a few.

When the Salt Lake City Olympics was in trouble, Utah’s governor hired Romney to make the rescue. He took over an Olympic organization that was losing so much money so fast, it was considering scaling back events. Romney’s leadership transformed the quadrennial games into a winner that turned a $100 million profit.

As George W. Bush famously stated, the president is “the decider.” Having capable advisers is important, but once all the conflicting cases have been presented, the president needs to choose a course of action. We feel confident that, when faced with choices about the direction of our nation’s economy and governance, Romney will make sound decisions. And there’s no question Romney in the White House will instill confidence in our nation’s businesses and financial markets.

…

On Sunday, Dec. 11, The New York Times carried a story highlighting Romney’s lifelong frugality. Despite a net worth estimated at $200 million, he can’t bear to waste money. What better attribute could we ask of someone sent to Washington to increase efficiency and reduce government spending? Money not wasted is money that will be put to work rebuilding our nation.

For years, politicians have crowed about closing tax loopholes, but Romney actually did that as Massachusetts governor, bringing in more than $300 million in new revenue. Closing one particularly egregious banking loophole brought a settlement of more than $100 million. Romney is data driven and detail oriented, and he will not be easily duped by powerful interests and their lobbyists and lawyers.

…

We certainly disagree with some of Romney’s positions: His opposition to equal rights for same-sex couples, his touting of Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas as model Supreme Court justices, and his ambivalence about the degree to which human activity is contributing to global warming are a few key areas of disagreement. But our endorsement reflects our belief that, of all the candidates seeking the Republican nomination, Romney would make the best president.

Finally, it’s our observation that Romney is a good man who is not a great politician. He is stiff and lacks the common touch. But the fact is, we’re electing a president to tackle highly complex global problems on an hourly basis. It takes an uncommon person with drive, vision, intelligence and integrity to do that job right, and among the Republican candidates, Romney stands head and shoulders above the rest of the field. We encourage our readers to support Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential primary Jan. 10.

(more…)

Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Daily Tracking Poll

• Newt Gingrich 26% {28%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (33%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {34%} [36%] (37%)
• Mitt Romney 24% {24%} [24%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [23%] (22%)
• Ron Paul 11% {10%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (8%)
• Rick Perry 7% {6%} [6%] (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
• Michele Bachmann 7% {7%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (6%) {7%} [6%] (6%)
• Rick Santorum 4% {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)

Survey of at least 1,000 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted December 13-18, 2011. The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conductedDecember 12-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2011 are in Results from the poll conductedDecember 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 8-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 6-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 3-7, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 2-6, 2011are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 1-5, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 35% [28%] (40%)
• Ron Paul 19% [9%] (18%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% [4%] (17%)
• Jon Huntsman 13% [7%]
• Michele Bachmann 5% [21%] (8%)
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Rick Perry 2% [9%]
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 4% [9%] (10%)

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 65%
• Might end up supporting someone else 35%

 

(more…)

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research (R) South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Newt Gingrich 30.6% {37.9%} [18.9%] (7.8%)
• Mitt Romney 18.7% {15.4%} [16.1%] (16.4%)
• Michele Bachmann 8.3% {3.2%} [4.7%] (5.8%)
• Ron Paul 7.1% {6.9%} [3.1%] (6.6%)
• Rick Perry 5.2% {3.7%} [6.1%] (12.4%)
• Jon Huntsman 4.3% (0.6%)
• Rick Santorum 4.1% {2.2%} [1.6%]
• Someone else 1.6% {4.6%} [4.0%] (3.7%)
• No opinion 20.1% {13.2%} [19.8%] (14.7%)

Survey of 736 likely South Carolina GOP primary voters was conducted December 18, 2011.  Party ID breakdown: 73.1% {73.4%} [75.0%] Republican; 21.5% {23.7%} [20.8%] Independent; 5.4% {2.9%} [3.9%] Democrat.  Results from the poll conducted November 28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 16, 2011are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research (R) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ron Paul 23.9% [16.5%] (13.3%) {11.4%} [8.7%] (9.6%)
• Mitt Romney 18.2% [11.9%] (11.5%) {18.7%} [14.9%] (18.1%)
• Rick Perry 15.5% [13.2%] (6.6%) {8.8%} [5.6%] (5.8%)
• Newt Gingrich 12.9% [27.1%] (28.1%) {14.5%} [11.7%] (12.1%)
• Michele Bachmann 10.1% [10.3%] (10.1%) {5.4%} [7.8%] (11.0%)
• Jon Huntsman 3.8% [3.6%] [1.9%] (0.9%)
• Rick Santorum 2.9% [6.8%] (3.3%) {3.4%}
• Someone else 0.8% [1.4%] (3.2%) {1.7%} [5.5%] (3.0%)
• No opinion 11.9% [9.2%] (14.1%) {12.8%} [14.2%] (13.1%)

Survey of 391 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted December 18, 2011.  Results from the poll conducted December 12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 28, 2011are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 8, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 3, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 16, 2011 are in parentheses.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

On a side note: New York Times gives us a peek into their upcoming Iowa caucus poll, which corroborates PPP’s survey showing Paul surging to the lead.

NBC News announces the big get for Team Gingrich on Twitter:

Gingrich will pick up the endorsement of former Congressman J.C. Watts, Jr. (R-OK); 1998 chair of House Republican Conference #decision2012

Watts, of course, is a conservative icon, and may put a little air back in the deflated Gingrich sails.

They say a week is an eternity in American politics, and that has been nowhere more true than in the Republican primary race. Coming into Monday, December 12, Newt Gingrich appeared to be set to cruise into the holidays with a commanding lead over Mitt Romney. Then several things began happening at once – things not even the man who defeated communism could survive.

Ron Paul began running devastating attack ads against Gingrich in Iowa. Newt got ganged up on in the debates, sustaining fire from Bachmann, Paul, Santorum, and (to a lesser degree) Romney. The establishment began coalescing against the idea of a Newt nomination, and several people and organizations came out with blistering anti-endorsements. And then came the coup de grâce — Newt attacking Mitt for his time at Bain Capital. With that anti-capitalist screed, what was a murmuring unease just beneath the surface blew up into an all-out war as conservatives lined up to take a piece of Gingrich’s hide.

Gingrich, who had climbed to with four points of Romney on the Intrade boards, began to free fall – and his poll numbers followed suit shortly after. Meanwhile, Romney managed to rack up major endorsement after major endorsement, landing the Washington Examiner, the Des Moines Register, and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, just to name a few. The Massachusetts Governor saw his own reversal of fortunes tale unfold as he regained the footing his campaign had lost earlier in the month.

And that brings us to our update today. Since I missed updating last week, the movement listed is from the past two weeks. (And since Gary Johnson has begun the process of switching over to the Libertarian ticket, I went ahead and dropped him from our rankings.)

Only candidates who appear on early state primary ballots are included.

Here are the (lightly traded) early state primaries:

Iowa

• Paul – 40.0
• Romney – 36.2
• Gingrich – 13.7

New Hampshire

• Romney – 80.0
• Paul – 10.0
• Huntsman – 9.0

South Carolina

• Romney – 49.9
• Gingrich – 22.0
• Perry – 8.9

The congressional backers keep adding up for the Romney campaign, and the Weekend of Endorsements continues into Monday morning:

Mark Kirk will endorse former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s bid for the GOP presidential nomination Monday, sources close to the political operation of the first-term Illinois Republican senator said Sunday.

Kirk, the state’s highest-ranking Republican officeholder, will join more than 50 members of Congress who have endorsed Romney before the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses Jan. 3.

“Romney will cut spending, repeal the health care law and restore private sector economic growth. He is a foreign policy hawk who will stand up to Iran,” Kirk said in a statement prepared in advance of his endorsement and provided by his political operation.

For anyone keeping track, this will be the tenth Senator (and fifty-sixth legislator overall) to endorse Romney.

PPP came out today with their latest Iowa Caucus poll. It shows a major collapse in Newt Gingrich’s poll numbers.

The full results were previously reported here on Race4. This article will only deal with the top-line numbers for the last two weeks.

First, here is the tabulated data for the past two weeks:

Here is the same data in graphical form:

Several things are obvious:

1. Newt Gingrich’s lead has utterly collapsed. He has gone from a +9 lead over Ron Paul to being -9 in back of him — a minus 18 point swing in less than two weeks. Ouch!
2. Ron Paul and Mitt Romney are moving up together with Paul currently in the lead.
3. Rick Santorum is the only other candidate with any significant movement, going from six points to ten points in a two week span.

With only two weeks to go to the caucus and with Paul and Romney moving up in the polls, it will most likely be Paul and Romney on top. They are in the lead, and they have the most loyal supporters of any candidate. It’s a pretty safe bet that one or the other will take first, the other second. So the question becomes, who will take third place?

There is an old adage in national presidential politics. Three tickets out of Iowa. Two tickets out of New Hampshire. If Gingrich has another week or two like these past two, he will be very lucky to hang on to that third Iowan ticket. Santorum is having a strong rise and is within easy striking distance of our former Speaker of the House. More importantly, Rick’s momentum is positive. Newt’s is all negative. In fact, there are three candidates — Bachmann, Perry, AND Santorum — that are within an easy four points of Gingrich. And they are all actively campaigning in Iowa while Newt catches some R&R in the next week.

Newt is in serious danger of becoming just a footnote in Iowa. He could easily finish fifth, even sixth. If that happens, he will have a bear of a time trying to turn his campaign around.

Here is the link to Mitt’s interview with Chris Wallace today:



And here is the link to the full transcript.

It is a wide-ranging interview touching upon foreign policy, domestic policy, how Obama and the Democrats will attack him if he’s the nominee, the differences between Mitt and his chief rivals for the nomination and more.

It’s a good interview. Chris Wallace doesn’t pull any punches.

Public Policy Polling (D) 2012 Iowa Republican Caucuses Poll

• Ron Paul 23% [21%] (18%) {10%} [16%] (11%) {16%}
• Mitt Romney 20% [16%] (16%) {22%} [19%] (26%) {28%}
• Newt Gingrich 14% [22%] (27%) {8%} [5%] (15%) {19%}
• Michele Bachmann 10% [11%] (13%) {8%} [18%] (14%) {15%}
• Rick Perry 10% [9%] (9%) {9%} [22%]
• Rick Santorum 10% [8%] (6%) {5%} [5%]
• Jon Huntsman 4% [5%] (4%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
• Gary Johnson 2% [1%] (1%) {1%}
• Someone else/Not sure 7% [7%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (8%) {12%}

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 63% [60%] (55%)
• Might end up supporting someone else 37% [40%] (45%)

Second Choice

• Michele Bachmann 15% [11%] (10%) {11%}
• Rick Perry 14% [10%] (11%) {12%}
• Newt Gingrich 13% [14%] (17%) {17%}
• Mitt Romney 12% [13%] (13%) {11%}
• Rick Santorum 9% [8%] (9%) {5%}
• Ron Paul 9% [12%] (10%) {9%}
• Jon Huntsman 7% [7%] (5%) {3%}
• Gary Johnson 1% [1%] (2%) {1%}
• Someone else/Not sure 18% [25%] (22%) {15%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 52% [49%] (51%) {46%} [44%] (29%) {27%} [28%] / 32% [33%] (28%) {17%} [22%] (18%) {11%} [9%] {+20%}
• Michele Bachmann 52% [55%] (56%) {44%} [47%] (53%) {49%} / 34% [37%] (35%) {38%} [35%] (16%) {13%} {+18%}
• Ron Paul 54% [61%] (52%) {37%} [53%] (42%) {55%} [47%] / 38% [31%] (38%) {46%} [29%] (29%) {17%} [23%] {+16%}
• Mitt Romney 49% [48%] (49%) {51%} [45%] (51%) {55%} [57%] / 40% [44%] (45%) {36%} [38%] (34%) {25%} [26%] {+9%}
• Rick Perry 48% [43%] (44%) {38%} [56%] (21%) / 40% [47%] (46%) {41%} [24%] (16%) {+8%}
• Newt Gingrich 46% [52%] (62%) {56%} [42%] (39%) {47%} [53%] / 47% [40%] (31%) {32%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [27%] {-1%}
• Jon Huntsman 32% [28%] (30%) {18%} [13%] (7%) {5%} / 38% [43%] (45%) {28%} [40%] (23%) {8%} {-6%}

Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 25% [21%] (23%)5
• Newt Gingrich 17% [30%] (33%)
• Ron Paul 16% [14%] (9%)
• Michele Bachmann 7% [5%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 6% [7%] (7%)
• Rick Santorum 3% [3%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 3% [2%] (3%)
• Gary Johnson 2% [1%] (1%)
• Someone else/Not sure 20% [16%] (14%)

Who do you think is going to win the Iowa caucuses?

• Newt Gingrich 20%
• Ron Paul 20%
• Mitt Romney 19%
• Michele Bachmann 6%
• Rick Perry 3%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 27%

Who do you think has run the strongest campaign in Iowa?

• Ron Paul 22%
• Michele Bachmann 19%
• Newt Gingrich 8%
• Rick Santorum 8%
• Rick Perry 7%
• Mitt Romney 5%
• Gary Johnson 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Someone else/Not sure 28%

Do you think that Ron Paul has strong principles, or not?

• He does 73%
• He does not 10%

Do you think that Mitt Romney has strong principles, or not?

• He does 50%
• He does not 31%

Do you think that Newt Gingrich has strong principles, or not?

• He does 36%
• He does not 43%

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 26% [27%] (32%) {29%} [33%] (31%) {28%}
• No 61% [61%] (58%) {52%} [51%] (48%) {48%}

What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?

• A candidate’s ability to beat Obama 32% [32%] (34%)
• Their issue positions 56% [56%] (57%)

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 47% {37%} [48%] (42%) {26%}
• No 31% {42%} [32%] (36%) {48%}
• Not sure 21% {22%} [20%] (23%) {26%}

Do you support or oppose ethanol subsidies?

• Support 33%
• Oppose 32%
• Not sure 35%

Survey of 597 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers was conducted December 16-18, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points.  Party ID: 75% [78%] (80%) Republican; 19% [17%] (14%) Independent/Other; 5% [4%] (6%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 36% [42%] (40%) {36%} [38%] (41%) {44%} Very conservative; 36% [35%] (37%) {36%} [34%] (37%) {33%} Somewhat conservative; 19% [17%] (15%) {21%} [21%] (14%) {17%} Moderate; 6% [3%] (5%) {4%} [3%] (6%) {4%} Somewhat liberal; 3% [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {2%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conductedDecember 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 19-21, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 27-30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 7-9, 2011are in square brackets.

–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

15 days until Iowa…

Intrade

Romney to win GOP nomination: 65.8
Gingrich to win GOP nomination: 13.0
Ron Paul to win GOP Nomination: 7.5
Huntsman to win GOP nomination: 6.6
Obama to win reelection: 50.9
Iowa Caucuses Winner: Romney 34.9 – Paul 31.3 – Gingrich 20.3
New Hampshire Primary Winner: Romney 75.7 – Paul 8.6 – Huntsman 8.1
South Carolina Primary Winner: Romney 40.0 – Gingrich 35.0 – Perry 8.9

Polling:

Obama Approval (RCP): 44.9% / 49.3% (-4.4%)
GOP Nomination (RCP): Gingrich +8.0
Gallup Daily Tracking GOP Nomination: Gingrich 28%, Romney 24%

And as always, have at it in the comments. Anything goes…

Part One:


Part Two:


Hat-tip: The Argo Journal