Just 30 days to go…
In addition to the latest Des Moines Register poll being released tonight at 7:00 central time (which will already be at least somewhat out of date, unfortunately, with Cain’s exit this afternoon), there are some other happenings in the Hawkeye State to keep an eye on as well.
The Sioux City Journal will announce online which Republican candidate they are endorsing at 6:00 pm tonight. This is one of the major endorsements the candidates seek in Iowa, perhaps behind only the Des Moines Register as far as newspaper endorsements in the state. In 2008, they endorsed Romney; however, back then Romney was the frontrunner in the state and had lavished a lot of time and money on Iowa. This time around, they’ll probably go with someone who has spent more time in Iowa – or at least a candidate who acts like winning Iowa is important to them.
Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich is playing the expectations game in the Hawkeye State, telling a group of folks there that he’ll probably finish “in the top two or three” in the first-in-the-nation caucuses. At this point, that’s reminiscent of Tim Pawlenty saying he needed to finish in the top six at Ames to continue his campaign.
We’ve talked before here at Race about how the Iowa caucuses take place all the way down on the precinct level, and how there are more than 1,700 precincts across the state. In addition to having as many precinct captains as humanly possible, well organized campaigns will also have county chairmen in each of the 99 Iowa counties. The Gingrich campaign admitted yesterday that since they’re getting such a late start in the state, they won’t even have all their county chairmen in place by the caucuses, let alone enough precinct captains.
Two pro-gun rights groups have also begun running robocalls against Newt Gingrich in Iowa, blasting him for supporting the Brady Bill and the Lautenberg Law, as well as for calling for a mandated thumb print scan for all gun owners. The robocalls are being paid for by the groups Iowa Gun Owners and the National Association for Gun Rights.
And finally, there are only three debates remaining before the Iowa caucuses and they are all taking place in Iowa. Next up on the calendar is an ABC News / Des Moines Register debate one week from today — and the stage will be pretty empty compared to what we’re used to. Obviously, Herman Cain won’t be there, but Jon Huntsman will most likely not be either, barring some stroke of miraculous luck in the next two days. The requirement for being invited to this debate is that a candidate be polling at 5% in either a Des Moines Register poll or a recognized national poll before December 5th. Huntsman has achieved neither milestone, and so has just two days to pray that a national poll comes out showing him at that 5% mark or he will be excluded.
Since Huntsman has also declined to take part in the Trump-moderated Iowa debate, the next time we see him on a debate stage will probably be January 7, 2012 in New Hampshire.
Race42012′s Huckabee Candidate Forum open thread will be going live at 7:30pm EST. The forum is scheduled from 8pm to 10pm EST and will be broadcast on FOX News. It may also be streamed live here.
The announcement was made at an event which was supposed to be celebrating the opening of a new campaign headquarters:
GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain “suspends” his presidential campaign. He made the announcement with his wife standing behind him at his headquarters in Atlanta.
After allegations of a 13-year extramarital affair and numerous allegations of sexual assault, Cain said it has been difficult to raise the funds necessary to continue to vie for the Republican nomination.
“As false accusations continue, they have sidetracked my ability to present solutions to the American people,” Cain said.
“I am at peace with my God. I am at peace with my wife and she is at peace with me.”
MSNBC has the story:
Real estate mogul Donald Trump will host a debate for Republican presidential candidates in Iowa just days before the state’s Jan. 3 caucuses.
Trump spokesman Michael Cohen confirmed the details of a New York Times report to NBC News: Trump, the star of the reality show “The Apprentice,” will moderate a debate on Dec. 27 in Des Moines, Iowa. The debate is being sponsored by the conservative magazine Newsmax.
Cohen told NBC he had no list of confirmed candidates, and wasn’t able to name the venue yet. He also stressed that it is not a “Donald Trump Debate,” just that Trump would be moderating.
Read the full story here.
Meanwhile, the Paul Campaign has made their thoughts clear on this development:
In a campaign statement released Saturday, Paul’s campaign called the debate a distraction from the real issues of the campaign.
“The selection of a reality television personality to host a presidential debate that voters nationwide will be watching is beneath the office of the Presidency and flies in the face of that office’s history and dignity,” Jesse Benton, Ron Paul’s national campaign chairman, said in a statement.
He added, “Mr. Trump’s participation as moderator will distract from questions and answers concerning important issues such as the national economy, crushing federal government debt, the role of the federal government, foreign policy, and the like. To be sure, Mr. Trump’s participation will contribute to an unwanted circus-like atmosphere.”
Benton cited Trump’s flirtation with running for president himself as a factor in the decision not to participate in the debate.
“Mr. Trump’s selection is also wildly inappropriate because of his record of toying with the serious decision of whether to compete for our nation’s highest office, a decision he appeared to make frivolously,” Benton said.
Jon Huntsman has confirmed that he will not accept an invitation to participate as well.
PPP (D) Montana 2012 Presidential Survey
- Mitt Romney 50% [49%] (50%)
- Barack Obama 40% [41%] (39%)
- Newt Gingrich 50% (46%)
- Barack Obama 42% (44%)
- Ron Paul 48%
- Barack Obama 40%
- Rick Perry 46%
- Barack Obama 43%
- Herman Cain 45% [46%]
- Barack Obama 43% [41%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Newt Gingrich 39% (34%) / 47% (47%) {-8%}
- Mitt Romney 32% [33%] (38%) / 50% [48%] (39%) {-18%}
- Ron Paul 31% / 50% {-19%}
- Herman Cain 26% [25%] / 56% [27%] {-30%}
- Rick Perry 18% / 62% {-44%}
Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
- Approve 39% [43%] (41%)
- Disapprove 56% [54%] (54%)
Survey of 1,625 Montana voters was conducted November 28-30, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 35% [39%] (38%) Republican; 30% [31%] (29%) Democrat; 35% [30%] (32%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 27% [27%] Moderate; 27% [25%] Somewhat conservative; 19% [21%] Very conservative; 18% [19%] Somewhat liberal; 8% [9%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
Following in the footsteps of Newt Gingrich’s Lincoln-Douglas-style debate with Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman has accepted the opportunity to sit down with the newest frontrunner for the Republican nomination:
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was serious about those Lincoln-Douglas-style debates. Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman will participate in one of the long, free-form forums with Gingrich in New Hampshire this month.
This makes perfect strategic sense for Huntsman; with his poll numbers slowly climbing but still far too low in New Hampshire, he really has nowhere to go but up. He performs much better in long-form situations, as opposed to soundbite-friendly formats. The debate will take place in New Hampshire, the state quite literally at the center of Huntsman’s campaign. And while Gingrich garners widespread praise for his debating skills, he also, as discussed here, has a propensity to say politically risky things when speaking at length.
Frontrunners often seek to reduce the number of debates in campaigns, to minimize their risk of damaging mistakes. For this reason, although Gingrich surely thinks very highly of his oratorical abilities, it surprises me that he would agree to this kind of event with a (currently) lower-tier candidate like Huntsman.
Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey
- Barack Obama 42% (44%) {43%} [42%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (42%) {44%} [40%] (43%) {46%} [42%] {45%} [42%] (44%)
- Mitt Romney 40% (38%) {42%} [41%] (44%) {42%} [41%] (44%) {41%} [43%] (39%) {38%} [43%] {40%} [44%] (44%)
Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted November 30 – December 1, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 21-22, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 9-10, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 1-2, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 24-25, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 16-17, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 8-9, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 28-29, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 18-19, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-11, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 25-26, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the polls conducted August 17-22, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the polls conducted between July 14-15, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 3-4, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 24, 2009 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
Over at the Washington Post, The Fix is out with their latest power rankings of the GOP race – and they go something like this:
8. Cain
7. Santorum
6. Bachmann
5. Paul
4. Huntsman
3. Perry
2. Gingrich
1. Romney
Be sure to click the link to read his rationale.
NBC reports that Herman Cain is set to make a “major announcement” tomorrow in his home state of Georgia.
The Washington Post says according to sources inside the campaign, the announcement will be “whether he intends to continue his campaign.” Cain is inviting “top supporters and donors” to Atlanta to give them advance word of his decision just before he makes the announcement publicly. According to one supporter who was invited to Atlanta, Cain said he wanted to express his gratitude at the private meeting.
The announcement coincides with an event that has been on Cain’s calendar for awhile: the opening of new Atlanta campaign headquarters. That event will be replaced by Cain’s announcement.
Well, I guess Mitt can scratch any hope of getting Sarah’s endorsement now. Heh.
Mitt Romney today announced the support of Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski. Mitt Romney also became the first candidate to complete the filing process to qualify for the ballot in the Alaska Republican Party’s 2012 Presidential Preference Poll. Petitions containing more than 100 signatures of Alaska Republican voters along with all required documents and fees were delivered to Alaska Republican Party Chairman Randy Ruedrich on November 14. After reviewing them, Chairman Ruedrich certified Governor Romney for the Alaska ballot.
“I am proud to announce the support of Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski,” said Mitt Romney. “I look forward to working with her to expand Alaska’s energy production, bring jobs back to the state, and help get our country on the right track again.”
“Mitt Romney has had the lifelong experiences needed to turn around our economy,” said Senator Murkowski. “Whether it was his ability to turn around the Massachusetts economy or turn around businesses in the private sector, Mitt Romney has demonstrated the leadership that we need in the White House to get the country on the right track. He has also laid out a plan to get our country on the path toward energy independence. Mitt Romney understands the importance of Alaska as a leader in our country’s energy production and I look forward to working with him on such an important economic and national security matter.”
Rick Perry is going up with yet another TV ad in Iowa, this one talking about his faith:
By my count, that is at least seven different TV ads Perry has run in the Hawkeye state in just over one month’s time. That’s what $15 million in the bank can do for you.
Palin on Fox News last night, from The Hill:
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin praised GOP presidential contender Rick Santorum on Fox News Thursday night.
“If voters start kind of shifting gears and decided they want ideological consistency then they’re going to start paying attention to say, Rick Santorum,” Palin said in an interview with Sean Hannity.
She went on to commend his consistency on being a “hardliner against Iran to help protect Israel,” as well as sticking to his pro-life beliefs and his mantra to cut income tax.
Hannity repeatedly asked about Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, the current front-runners of the Republican slate, but Palin said that the other GOP contenders are still very much in the race, specifically pointing to Santorum. She predicted that over the next few weeks, “people will start paying attention to some of these other messages from some of the other messengers like Rick Santorum.”
This is really interesting:
An adviser to Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign says in a new book that the campaign was not happy to see former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain’s campaign rocked by allegations of inappropriate behavior dating back to the 1990s.
“We didn’t want [opposition research] on him coming out. We wanted him to stay where he is. He keeps Perry down,” the anonymous aide said, referencing Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
The comments were reported in the new e-book, “The Right Fights Back,” which chronicles the 2012 Republican presidential race so far…
Even when Cain polled high, Romney never made an effort to attack him, likely because he never saw the former businessman as a real threat. On the other hand, Romney clearly sees Perry as a threat to his campaign, as evidenced by his constant attacks on the Texas governor.
Rick Perry does have all the money, organization, and endorsements that Newt Gingrich lacks. And he has been spending a lot of that money in Iowa running positive ads (in preparation for a huge negative ad campaign reportedly to be focused on Romney and Gingrich). Romney still sees something in Perry that makes him wary of the Texan.
From Pajamas Media:
The so-called Fairness Doctrine is the anti-First Amendment now unenforced Federal Communications Commission (FCC) rule which chilled free speech on the radio from its FCC creation in 1949 until the Commission voted to stop its enforcement in 1987.
The Fairness in Broadcasting Act of 1987 (H.R. 1934) sprung up immediately after this latter vote to try to turn the Doctrine into law. Then Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich was one of its 71 co-sponsors.
I can’t for the life of me find the final vote, so I do not know if Gingrich voted for it – though it would be a might strange for someone to co-sponsor a bill and then not say Aye.
I did find a pro-Fairness Doctrine video that says the bill passed the House by a 3-1 margin – and that Gingrich voted for it.
It also passed the Senate – but President Ronald Reagan thankfully then broke out his veto pen.
This was all of course in the midst of the dark days of the Republicans’ 40+ years spent wandering in the House Minority wilderness, so there was rarely any need for any Elephant to sponsor anything – they were an irrelevant species.
The Des Moines Register has offered a rare preview of their latest Iowa poll, and it does not look good for Herman Cain. Cain has slipped from 23% support in the previous poll down to just 8% now. Cain was rated as the candidate most likely to have a scandal in the White House (at 47%), but voters also took him to task over his lack of knowledge on basic issues. Twenty-seven percent of Iowa voters called him the least knowledgeable candidate in the race — a dubious honor to be sure, when flanked by the likes of Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann.
The allegations of a 13-year affair surfaced on day two of the four day poll, but even before that story came out Cain was already floundering in the Hawkeye State. On the first day of polling, he clocked in at just 12%. That number slid further as the polling went on.
Full results will be released Saturday at 7 central time.
Former Missouri Senator (and VP-shortlister for Bush 43) John Danforth has endorsed Mitt Romney today, adding to Romney’s growing pile of endorsements in the Show Me State.
And in Iowa this morning, former Governor Robert Ray endorsed Romney as well. Ray is, as Politico notes, a prominent moderate Republican who stands in contrast to the religious Vander Plaats wing of the Iowa GOP.
Rick Perry’s team is preparing for a massive push in Iowa.
AUSTIN — Rick Perry’s presidential campaign plans to bring more than 600 influential Texans to Iowa this month as part of a major blitz for a strong finish in the first state to vote.
The massive Perry posse will include Republican elected officials such as Attorney General Greg Abbott and Comptroller Susan Combs, party stalwarts, consultants, lobbyists, business supporters and friends who will reach out to Republicans in the Hawkeye State and ask them to take a fresh look at the Texas governor.
Read the rest here.
PPP (D) Montana 2012 Senate Poll
- Denny Rehberg (R) 47% [47%] (48%)
- Jon Tester (D) 45% [45%] (46%)
- Undecided 8% [8%] (6%)
UPDATE: From earlier this year:
“I have two grandchildren — Maggie is 11, Robert is 9,” Gingrich said at Cornerstone Church here. “I am convinced that if we do not decisively win the struggle over the nature of America, by the time they’re my age they will be in a secular atheist country, potentially one dominated by radical Islamists and with no understanding of what it once meant to be an American.”
Now imagine this stuff, and a thousand other similar insane statements blasted out daily with the backing of a billion dollars. Just unbelievable.
This ad will air one night only tonight in Iowa during Gov. Perry’s appearance on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno:
Bret Baier recently interviewed Romney one-on-one. You can watch the interview here. At times during the interview, Romney gets noticably annoyed with Baier’s questions. I, for one, thought they were pretty fair and, frankly, I think he’d go just as hard on any other candidate.
Romney disagrees. He said that he felt some of the questions were uncalled for after the interview. Watch the video yourself and post in the comments if you think any of the questions were really “uncalled for.”
PPP (D) Florida 2012 Presidential Survey
- Barack Obama 45% (46%) {47%} [46%] (46%)
- Mitt Romney 44% (45%) {43%} [44%] (44%)
- Barack Obama 50% (50%) [50%] (47%)
- Newt Gingrich 44% (42%) [42%] (42%)
- Barack Obama 46% (45%)
- Ron Paul 40% (44%)
- Barack Obama 50% (50%)
- Rick Perry 38% (43%)
- Barack Obama 51%
- Herman Cain 37%
Note: In 2008, John McCain received 48% of the vote in Florida. In 2004, George W. Bush received 52% of the vote in FL.Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Mitt Romney 37% (40%) {41%} [39%] (43%) / 47% (46%) {45%} [39%] (38%) {-10%}
- Newt Gingrich 37% (28%) [32%] (36%) / 51% (57%) [48%] (47%) {-14%}
- Ron Paul 27% (31%) / 53% (51%) {-26%}
- Herman Cain 26% / 59% {-33%}
- Rick Perry 15% (29%) / 67% (58%) {-52%}
Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
- Approve 45% (46%) {48%} [48%] (45%)
- Disapprove 50% (51%) {49%} [47%] (49%)
Survey of 700 Florida voters was conducted November 28 – December 1, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 42% (40%) {42%} [41%] (42%) Democrat; 38% (37%) {36%} [37%] (40%) Republican; 20% (23%) {21%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 36% (32%) {30%} [30%] Moderate; 23% (27%) {23%} [26%] Somewhat conservative; 19% (14%) {17%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 14% (16%) {20%} [21%] Very conservative; 9% (10%) {10%} [7%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 22-25, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 17-20, 2010 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
The new Des Moines Register poll will be released this Saturday at 7:00 central time. That is all.
RCP’s Erin McPike has the story:
New GOP presidential front-runner Newt Gingrich, anticipating an attack from fellow contender Mitt Romney, has instructed his campaign staff and advisers not to respond in kind to the former Massachusetts governor, RCP has learned.
According to Gingrich campaign spokesman R.C. Hammond, “In response to the dynamics over the last 24 hours about the attacks coming our way, his instructions to us were to not say anything bad about Mitt Romney.”
Hammond explained that the campaign has received inquiries about how it will respond to attacks on Gingrich, given the searing Web ad Ron Paul’s operation has released and a reading of the “tea leaves” regarding Romney. And so, in the course of the campaign’s regular morning conference call Thursday, Gingrich told his staff and advisers to keep the focus on a forward-looking campaign and President Obama.
In essence, that means Gingrich will be stealing from longtime putative front-runner Romney’s own playbook: Act like the nominee for the general election; don’t engage intraparty rivals; and prepare to be seen as the next president.
As one informal adviser familiar with the call put it, “Newt instructed his team . . . to remain focused on what obviously has resonated: Voters want a nominee who can go toe to toe with President Obama on issues and substance. So Newt will continue to talk about how lower taxes, less regulation and pro-growth policies that will permit Americans to create real jobs. Negative attacks on fellow Republicans will not create a single new job or help rebuild America.”
The adviser continued: “Romney’s consultants clearly did not expect they would face the one conservative in the primary who actually has a strong record of economic accomplishment. Newt believes the economic recovery will begin in November on election night when it’s clear that Barack Obama is packing for Chicago. The Gingrich campaign has a different approach than some other Republican campaigns: Newt Gingrich has only one opponent — Barack Obama.
Team Romney, however, is reportedly set to pursue a different track:
Mitt Romney’s campaign advisers insist they’re no more scared of Newt Gingrich than the candidates who’ve surged before — but they’re already rolling out a playbook that shows they know the latest alarm isn’t a drill.
They know the stakes are higher with five weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses and a challenger who now poses their most substantial threat. They’re preparing a robust, sustained attack that tags the former House speaker as a Washington insider and serial flip-flopper who can’t be trusted with the nation’s economy.
And they’re gearing up to have Romney bring the challenge directly — and proactively.
There’s a double-edged benefit: Blasting Gingrich also lets them shore up their own support.
They’ll point out Gingrich’s past policy shifts which can protect them from attacks against Romney’s own inconsistencies. They’ll highlight Gingrich’s conservative apostasies as a hedge against Romney’s own moderate views. And they’ll highlight his stable family while leaving an unspoken impression about Gingrich’s two divorces.
The plan to increase the attention to Romney’s wife of 42 years and five sons in the hopes of sparking more conversation about Gingrich’s three marriages without raising the topic themselves is one of several subtle offensives. Another is the barrage of surrogate conference calls this week that they meant in part to remind Gingrich of their massive organizational advantage if he decides to lob an attack.
And as Romney himself laid out as he began leveling his first broadsides against Gingrich, running against the former House speaker gives him an opportunity to look like less of an establishment figure himself.
“Speaker Gingrich is a good man, he and I have very different backgrounds,” Romney told Bret Baier on Fox News Tuesday night. “He spent his last 30 or 40 years in Washington. I spent my career in the private sector, and I think that’s what the country needs right now.”
Be sure to read each of these stories in their entirety here and here.
First Ron Paul, Now Chris Christie. From The Wall Street Journal
“Speaker Gingrich has never run anything,” he told FLDemocracy2012.com, a Scripps Howard website. “And he’s been a legislator. I have to tell you, I don’t think being a legislator is the best calling card. Look at the guy we have in the White House now. He never ran anything and was a legislator.”
In the Republican primary season, comparing a candidate for the presidential nomination to President Barack Obama is pulling out the big guns, but no one has ever accused Mr. Christie of diplomacy. The New Jersey governor also dismissed Mr. Gingrich as “the newest flavor of the two weeks,” adding, “these Gingrich poll numbers are as solid as the Cain numbers were, as solid as the Perry numbers were, as solid as the Bachmann numbers were,” comparing Mr. Gingrich’s poll numbers to earlier front-runners Herman Cain, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann.
Rasmussen 2012 GOP Nomination Poll
- Newt Gingrich 38% {14%} [10%] (9%) {5%} [6%] (9%) {9%} [11%] (13%)
- Mitt Romney 17% {23%} [29%] (24%) {18%} [22%] (33%) {17%} [24%] (20%)
- Herman Cain 8% {26%} [29%] (7%) {6%} [9%] (10%)
- Ron Paul 8% {7%} [5%] (6%) {9%} [10%] (7%) {8%} [4%] (5%)
- Rick Perry 4% {8%} [9%] (28%) {29%} [18%]
- Michele Bachmann 4% {2%} [4%] (8%) {13%} [16%] (19%)
- Rick Santorum 4% {1%} [2%] (3%) {1%}
- Jon Huntsman 3% {2%} [2%] (2%) {1%} [2%] (2%)
Survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted November 30, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 2, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
Field Research California 2012 Presidential Survey
- Barack Obama 50% {51%}
- Mitt Romney 40% {38%}
- Barack Obama 55%
- Newt Gingrich 35%
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
- Approve 48% {46%} [54%] (54%)
- Disapprove 44% {44%} [37%] (37%)
Survey of 1,000 registered voters was conducted November 15-27, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 1-12, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 3-13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 28 – March 14, 2011 are in parentheses.
s–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
