- Gingrich – 33%
- Romney – 20%
- Paul – 17%
- Perry – 9%
- Bachmann – 7%
- Santorum – 5%
- Huntsman – 1%
Survey of 419 likely Iowa GOP caucus goers was conducted Nov 29-Dec 6 and has a margin of error of +/-4.5%.
New Hampshire Primary Survey
- Romney – 35%
- Gingrich – 26%
- Paul – 17%
- Huntsman – 8%
- Bachmann – 3%
- Perry – 2%
- Santorum – 2%
Survey of 507 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters was conducted Nov 29-Dec 6 and has a margin of error of +/-4.5%.
South Carolina Primary Survey
- Gingrich – 43%
- Romney – 20%
- Perry – 8%
- Bachmann – 6%
- Paul – 6%
- Santorum – 4%
- Huntsman – 1%
Survey of 510 likely South Carolina GOP primary voters was conducted Nov 29-Dec 6 and has a margin of error of +/-4.5%.
Florida Primary Survey
- Gingrich – 48%
- Romney – 25%
- Paul – 5%
- Bachmann – 3%
- Perry – 3%
- Huntsman – 3%
- Santorum – 1%
Survey of 446 likely Republican primary voters in Florida was conducted Nov 29-Dec 6 and has a margin of error of +/-4.5%.
Herman Cain was included in the polling from Nov 29 – Dec 3. For those days, the results were recalculated using the respondents’ reported second choices.
I was afraid, when the first Gallup tracking poll was posted yesterday, that we would see a good deal of craziness over meaningless one-day blips. I was right, as demonstrated by the comments on this thread.
Tracking polls are great, and great fun for us poll nerds. But they need to be properly understood, and one of the important points in understanding them is: DO NOT TAKE ONE-DAY CHANGES SERIOUSLY!!!!!
Sorry for shouting, but the point is important.
A tracking poll takes small samples of voters across several days and unites them into a large sample; then each day the oldest sample is dropped and replaced with a new one. This works fine in terms of tracking trends OVER A PERIOD OF TIME (oops, there’s the shouting again – sorry).
Here’s the fallacy related to looking at individual days: The Gallup poll, as an example, uses samples of 200 per day (or something like that). The total sample of 1000 has a smallish (3.1) margin of error. But each individual sample has an MoE of about 7 (6.93, but we’ll use 7 for simplicity). To see why this matters, consider the following example:
Let’s postulate a two-candidate race, in which the reality is that each candidate has about 50% support. Over the first five days of the tracking poll, Candidate Jones gets 57-43-50-50-50. This means that when the results are published he has 50%. Jonesites are biting their nails. On the sixth day, he gets a 43 and the 57 rolls off. Now he has 43-50-50-50-43 = 47. His supporters climb out on the ledge. Hopefully they don’t jump, however, because he gets 57s the next two days, resulting in 50-50-43-57-57 = 53. Jonesites dancing in the streets!
Matt Coulter, there will be blood on your hands if Mitt drops a few points over the next few days, unless you begin posting a warning label on these polls. Something like: Do not look at individual days on these polls – look at them over several days. No movement means anything unless it is sustained.
For the sake of maintaining your sanity, I would recommend assuming that unless a candidate moves in the same direction at least three days in a row, the odds are that nothing is happening – that it’s just random movement. Other than that, use it as it is intended – tracking longer-term (e.g., weeks, not days) trends.
PPP (D) Colorado 2012 Presidential Survey
- Barack Obama 47% [48%] (47%)
- Mitt Romney 45% [41%] (41%)
- Barack Obama 50% (53%)
- Newt Gingrich 42% (39%)
- Barack Obama 48%
- Ron Paul 39%
- Barack Obama 52% [51%]
- Rick Perry 37% [38%]
Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, National Republican Primary
- Gingrich – 36% (37)
- Romney – 23% (22)
- Paul – 9% (8)
- Bachmann – 6% (6)
- Perry – 6% (7)
- Santorum – 3% (3)
- Huntsman – 1% (1)
Survey of more than 1,000 registered voters was conducted Dec 2-6.
A strong new ad from Gov. Mitt Romney that heavily emphasizes his family, particulary his 42-year marriage to wife Anne.
Over at The Corner, Yuval Levin has a post which has been getting some attention on the Romney/Gingrich duel. After making the case that both men are fundamentally Rockefeller Republicans with a history of flip-flopping (and therefore, are essentially identical from a “purity” standpoint), he goes on to note the temperamental differences. He writes:
Romney has a thoroughly executive disposition: He appears to have a very organized mind, intense discipline, a general sense of calm and restraint, and a systematic approach to everything he does. He expects change to result from a process, and so thinks about politics in terms of process. He exhibits each of these qualities to a fault—and as a result he can often seem rather cold, and his past flip-flops can seem even more unprincipled.
Gingrich has what you might call a revolutionary disposition: He has great intensity and energy. His mind is drawn to stark and diametrical distinctions; he expects change to occur through cataclysmic clashes and so seems always to be seeking after ways to accelerate the contradictions. This allows him to much more easily thunder over his own inconsistencies and past changes of mind. But he has no discipline whatsoever, can be almost unbelievably erratic and unfocused, and is unironically conceited.
I think Gingrich has the intensity and the understanding of the importance of the moment that many Republican voters are looking for…He also of course has a record in high office that includes some impressive accomplishments during his speakership—welfare reform, the balanced budget—though also some very costly failures that seemed to flow from deficiencies in his temperament or his style of management.
And that’s where I think Romney has some advantages. The presidency is an executive position—for all the political elements of the job, which are obviously very important, the presidency is fundamentally a matter of making decisions and seeing to it that they are carried out: A president has to be a decisive, focused, prudent, disciplined person, who knows what he wants and how to use the power he has to achieve it. Romney’s record on that front is very impressive.
The money quote starts at 4:25:
“We are going to have the candidate of food stamps, the finest food stamp president in the American history in Barack Obama and we are going to have a candidate of paychecks.”
Rick Perry goes full bore for the evangelical vote in the Iowa caucuses with this one:
He’s spent roughly a million dollars on his Iowa ads thus far, and reports yesterday said he’s just put down another million for them.
John McCain, who has said several times that he will not endorse in the 2012 GOP primary, has apparently changed his mind. He told The Hill on Tuesday that he would be making an endorsement in the race now, although it will be “later on”. Sources say “later on” most likely means after the Iowa caucuses.
The recipient of McCain’s endorsement? According to “conservative sources,” it will be none other than his former political enemy Mitt Romney. For folks following John McCain on Twitter, this probably doesn’t come as a surprise; McCain has defended Romney in several tweets in the past month. Politico counts three times that the Senator has directly praised or defended Governor Romney:
So what has made John McCain change his mind about endorsing — and what could drive him to endorse the man that he so vehemently despised four years ago? Newt Gingrich.
CBS News notes that “McCain and many of Gingrich’s former colleagues on Capitol Hill are increasingly fearful the bombastic mastermind of the 1994 Republican revolution might become the party’s nominee for president in 2012.”
The Hill reports:
There is growing concern among many of McCain’s Senate Republican colleagues on whether Gingrich is electable in a match-up against President Obama.
“Newt’s hand is always six inches from the self-destruct button,” one GOP lawmaker said last week.
McCain said, “I don’t know if he’s electable. You have to see how candidates evolve.”
Contemplating an endorsement of Romney marks a shift for McCain, who earlier this year told reporters that he would not back a candidate.
And Newsmax also notes, “There is much hand-wringing among Republicans, publicly and privately, with some saying they dread the possibility of Gingrich as the nominee.”
It’s not difficult to see how this race now turns in favor of Romney, as the “establishment” (i.e. people who have actually gotten elected to public office, and those who have worked with Gingrich) increasingly closes ranks around Romney to deny Gingrich the nomination. It’s the reason Romney now has 54 congressional endorsements, with many more to be released, while Gingrich has just 7 – and has only gained one since August. With establishment support comes fundraising ability, organizational heft, a display of strength, and dozens of surrogates who can hit the campaign trail.
The endorsements continue rolling in for Mitt Romney, as U.S. Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), the highest ranking Republican woman in Congress, adds her name to the list this morning:
Announcing her support, Congresswoman McMorris Rodgers said, “President Obama’s policies are not working for Washington State or the rest of the nation. Joblessness remains high and businesses are not able to expand. President Obama’s on-the-job training has left millions of Americans disappointed and looking for someone with the experience to get results. Mitt Romney actually knows how the economy works – he spent 25 years in the private sector – and knows how jobs are created. Throughout his life, he has shown conservative solutions work, whether it was in business, the Olympic Games or as governor. With his economic know-how and bold plan to turn around the economy, Mitt Romney will be able to get our country back on the right track on day one as president.”
New York Times/CBS News Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
- Newt Gingrich 31%
- Mitt Romney 17%
- Ron Paul 16%
- Rick Perry 11%
- Michele Bachmann 9%
- Rick Santorum 4%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
(Among Gingrich voters) Would you describe your support for Newt Gingrich as strongly favoring Newt Gingrich, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support Newt Gingrich because you dislike the other candidates?
- Strongly favor 47%
- Like but with reservations 42%
- Dislike other candidates 10%
(Among Romney voters) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring Mitt Romney, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support Mitt Romney because you dislike the other candidates?
- Strongly favor 39%
- Like but with reservations 51%
- Dislike other candidates 10%
Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure?
- Mind made up 34%
- Too early to say for sure 66%
Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey
- Barack Obama 46% [44%] (45%) {44%} [49%] (43%) {44%} [46%] (41%) {43%} [44%] (45%)
- Rick Perry 34% [35%] (38%) {36%} [35%] (37%) {38%} [39%] (44%) {40%} [39%] (28%)
Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted December 4-5, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 5-6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 26-27, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 18-19, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 10-11, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 30 – October 1, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 22-23, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 14-15, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 29-30, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 17-22, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 6-7, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 1-14, 2011 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
Gingrich may get another one-on-one debate after all…
Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and now Mitt Romney have all declined invitations to participate in a Trump-moderated debate on December 27. Romney, unlike Paul and Huntsman who blasted the idea publicly, called Donald Trump and declined the invitation directly. It should’t have come as a surprise — Romney famously declined the original YouTube debate in 2008 because he felt a snowman asking questions was beneath the office of the presidency. It’s difficult to see Donald Trump as moderator being any better. Heh.
The only two candidates who have agreed to participate in the debate, in fact, are Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. Bachmann and Perry are both undecided, but Bachmann is leaning against participating. Bachmann points out Trump wouldn’t be an impartial moderator since he admitted he is already leaning toward a candidate to endorse, and Perry is remaining quiet about the whole thing — but one has to imagine he is fighting to do as few debates as possible.
This debate was never going to mean much anyway – taking place right after Christmas on some obscure channel nobody gets, and a severe credibility issue because of who the moderator is. It’s a debate in Iowa, and now with both Ron Paul and Mitt Romney – two of the three frontrunners in the state – bowing out, it means even less.
Which means you should circle this Saturday and next Thursday on your calendars, because those are the final two debates before Iowa votes. If Gingrich escapes unscathed from both of them, he could very well be our nominee.
PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Newt Gingrich 51% [22%] (17%) {8%} [11%] (9%) {14%}
- Mitt Romney 14% [19%] (17%) {12%} [16%] (23%) {25%}
- Michele Bachmann 8% [4%] (6%) {8%} [17%] (22%) {10%}
- Ron Paul 7% [4%] (6%) {10%} [11%] (6%) {9%}
- Rick Perry 4% [10%] (15%) {35%} [17%] (14%)
- Rick Santorum 3% [2%] (2%) {4%}
- Jon Huntsman 1% [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {1%}
- Gary Johnson 0% [0%]
- Someone else/Not sure 11% [8%] (8%) {12%} [13%] (10%) {10%}
Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?
- Strongly committed to that candidate 37% [34%]
- Might end up supporting someone else 63% [66%]
PPP (D) Colorado 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Newt Gingrich 37% [9%]
- Mitt Romney 18% [22%]
- Michele Bachmann 9% [15%]
- Ron Paul 6% [7%]
- Rick Santorum 4%
- Rick Perry 4% [21%]
- Jon Huntsman 3% [2%]
- Gary Johnson 1%
- Someone else/Not sure 16% [13%]
Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?
- Strongly committed to that candidate 34%
- Might end up supporting someone else 66%
New York Times/CBS News Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
Which candidate do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama in the general election in November?
- Newt Gingrich 31%
- Mitt Romney 29%
- Rick Perry 9%
- Ron Paul 6%
- Michele Bachmann 3%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
- All of them 5%
- None of them 2%
- No answer 9%
Which matters more to you: the candidate’s views on economic issues or social issues?
- Economic issues 71%
- Social issues 14%
- Both equally 13%
- No answer 1%
Note: Complete poll results will be available this evening.
Survey of 642 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted November 30 – December 5, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
Today, Gallup will release the first installment of their daily tracking poll covering the Republican primary contest. That’s right… from now until the voting ends, we will be treated to a new national primary survey everyday. The rolling results will be from the previous five days’ worth of surveys and contain responses from 1,000 registered voters.
Hopefully, Rasmussen will start up his daily tracking poll soon as well, as he polls a larger pool of likely voters. With just 27 days to go, ’tis the season!
UPDATE: And, here it is:
Gallup National Republican Primary Daily Tracking Poll
- Gingrich – 37%
- Romney – 22%
- Paul – 8%
- Perry – 7%
- Bachmann – 6%
- Santorum – 3%
- Huntsman – 1%
- Undecided – 14%
The current results are based on 1,277 Republican registered voters nationwide interviewed Dec. 1-5.
Cain was included from Dec 1-3; for those three days, respondents’ reported second choices were substituted for his numbers.
Mitt Romney unveiled his campaign steering committee in the state of West Virginia this morning, in a show of strength that signals he doesn’t intend to lose the state this time around. The list has 76 people who are backing Romney — including RNC committee members, WV state legislators, mayors, members of the state GOP and the state GOP executive committee, and GOP county chairs across the state. Any way you slice it, this is an impressive shot across the bow of the other candidates who might be struggling with organization issues. West Virginia doesn’t vote until late in the game this year, but the message is clear from Romney: he’s working to win this thing, is light years ahead as far as on-the-ground organization goes, and is taking the long view of this primary contest.
The GOP “nightmare scenario” has Democrats practically falling over themselves with glee. From POLITICO:
Former White House spokesman and Obama campaign adviser Robert Gibbs was gleeful Tuesday over former House speaker Newt Gingrich’s rising stature and the prospect of Donald Trump moderating a Republican presidential debate, likening it to “shooting fish in a barrel.”
“Cancel Christmas. Just get ready for the Donald Trump debate. … Pay-per-view. Pay-per-view. We ought to have this, the new rule, I think you’ve heard, you have to have your birth certificate to participate in the debate. It’s like shooting fish in a barrel,” said Gibbs on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” mocking Trump’s fascination with Obama’s birth certificate.
Ron Paul’s devastating web video has been streamlined into a 60 second spot that will go up Iowa.
Over at The Wall Street Journal, William McGurn makes the case for Puerto Rico Governor Luis Fortuno’s inclusion on the VP shortlist for the eventual GOP nominee:
He’s young, dynamic, and well-spoken. As a Republican vice presidential nominee, he could help with Latino voters in 2012.
And he’s not Marco Rubio.
His name is Luis Fortuño, and he’s part of a rising generation of Republicans pushing pro-growth, small-government agendas. Like many of these men and women, Mr. Fortuño is a governor. What makes him striking is that he’s governor of an American territory, Puerto Rico, rather than an American state.
“I’m flattered,” says Mr. Fortuño when a reporter pitches the vice presidency to him. “But what I’ve done in Puerto Rico hasn’t been about my own re-election or advancement. It been about doing what I think is right.”
Spend any time with Mr. Fortuño, and you will learn that high on his list of doing what’s right is ensuring government lives within its means. When he was elected governor in 2008, one out of three Puerto Ricans were working for the government. When he was sworn in, there wasn’t enough money to meet the payroll. In response, Mr. Fortuño cut spending and 20,000 government workers, provoking angry protests.
The governor stood his ground. Earlier this year, he signed a bill slashing individual and corporate taxes—and he says there’s much more to do. For example, because Puerto Rico is not connected to the U.S. electric grid, it gets 68% of its electricity from oil (against about 1% for the U.S.), making its economy especially vulnerable to high oil prices. Just last week, Mr. Fortuño won a huge victory when the Army Corps of Engineers issued a favorable preliminary ruling on a natural-gas pipeline that would run 92 miles from southern Puerto Rico toward San Juan.
Be sure to read the entire piece here.
Interestingly, I happened to find a video of Newt Gingrich interviewing Gov. Fortuno from back in 2010. Hmmmmm….
Winthrop University South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Newt Gingrich 38.4% [4.6%] (8.1%)
- Mitt Romney 21.5% [26.5%] (16.1%)
- Rick Perry 9.0% [29.8%]
- Michele Bachmann 5.4% [4.2%] (3.8%)
- Ron Paul 4.1% [4.2%] (2.5%)
- Rick Santorum 3.1% [2.6%] (1.4%)
- Jon Huntsman 1.4% [1.3%] (0.8%)
- Other 0.7% [0.8%] (1.0%)
- Not Sure 9.1% [12.1%] (16.9%)
Survey of likely Republican primary voters was conducted November 27 – December 4, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5.38 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 11-18, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 17-23, 2011 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
Romney continues the December endorsement push by unveiling three strong California endorsements to go with his three Tennessee endorsements yesterday. This morning, Jerry Lewis, Ken Calvert, and Brian Bilbray endorsed Mitt Romney:
Announcing his support, Congressman Lewis said “Mitt Romney has the conservative credentials to lead our economy out of this recession. His experience in the business world gives him a keen understanding of our economy and of job creation. He is the best prepared to take on President Obama and turn around our economy.”
Announcing his support, Congressman Calvert said, “Governor Romney will be a steady and reliable commander of the ship of state and is the right man to manage critical but tight defense budgets and lead an American and global recovery. Governor Romney’s private and public sector experience make him the best equipped candidate to defeat President Obama in 2012.”
“Governor Romney’s leadership and experience are what this country needs right now. President Obama’s failures are wreaking havoc on the economy and we need a leader who can fix the fiscal mess we are in and create jobs,” said Congressman Bilbray. “I also believe that Mitt Romney will be the best candidate to secure the border and put a halt to illegal immigration.”
This gives Romney the endorsements of seven members of the California congressional delegation – the other candidates combined have a total of zero.
Washington Post-ABC News Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
- Newt Gingrich 33%
- Mitt Romney 18%
- Ron Paul 18%
- Rick Perry 11%
- Michele Bachmann 8%
- Rick Santorum 7%
- Jon Huntsman 2%
Will you definitely support __________________ as your first choice, or is there a chance you could change your mind and support someone else as your first choice? (If Chance Change Mind): Would you say there’s a good chance you’ll change your mind, or is it pretty unlikely?
- Definitely support 45%
- Chance could change mind, but pretty unlikely 26%
- Good chance will change mind 27%
The sagging poll numbers of Obama, as well as a weak GOP field has had many people thinking Huckabee made a big mistake in skipping this election as he once again could have been a top contender again.
I can’t help but thinking that while running for President, may not be Huckabee’s prime goal in life, if the GOP can’t win the election, he may have given himself every advantage for 2016. He garnered nearly universal praise for his recent forum, and his fair treatment of each candidate to come on his program including Mitt Romney helps to elevate him as well. Whatever hard feelings remain from 2008 or Huckabee’s tenure as Governor of Arkansas will be gone for most people come 2016.
This field is also noteworthy for the fact that it really if the GOP loses, it is unlikely to produce a candidate who can show up in 2016 and claim to be next in line with Gingrich and Romney being clearly past their prime. Just like in 2000 after 1996, the field will be open.
Some like to suggest that Huckabee needed to run now because Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, and Paul Ryan may be waiting in the wings but perhaps the past two election cycles with candidates that look great on paper and in theory such as Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, Rudy Giuliani, and Fred Thompson should temper the idea that these candidates can just show up and win the nomination.
Huckabee is continuing to become not only a known quantity, but a well-liked one too. While I hope the GOP beats Obama in 2012. If not, Huckabee will have a stronger case than ever to be the next president in 2016.
Newt Gingrich seized on some ambiguity in House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s statement that she could provide devastating information on Newt:
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi clarified Monday that the “conversation” she wants to have about her knowledge of Newt Gingrich’s past will be based on information already in the public record – not anything confidential she learned while investigating the former House Speaker during a year-long ethics investigation into his actions…
In a statement Monday, Pelosi spokesperson Drew Hammill told Hotsheet the minority leader was “clearly referring to the extensive amount of information that is in the public record,” when she made the statement – “including the comprehensive committee report with which the public may not be fully aware.”
In other words, Pelosi believes there is substantial damaging information about Speaker Gingrich that could easily be obtained by anyone in Washington or any reporter doing a Lexus-Nexus search. The question then becomes why this information hasn’t been used by the press.
The answer may be two fold. For most of the year, Gingrich was dead thanks to the controversy that led Gingrich to issue a truly epic press release (performed by John Litghow below). Secondly, now that Newt is a contender, there is reason for the media to hold back this story until after its too late for Republicans to do anything about it, either for idealogical purposes or in hopes of high ratings from months of wall-to-wall presidential candidate scandals.
The Colbert Report
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PPP (D) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey
- Newt Gingrich 27% {8%} [5%] (15%) {19%}
- Ron Paul 18% {10%} [16%] (11%) {16%}
- Mitt Romney 16% {22%} [19%] (26%) {28%}
- Michele Bachmann 13% {8%} [18%] (14%) {15%}
- Rick Perry 9% {9%} [22%]
- Rick Santorum 6% {5%} [5%]
- Jon Huntsman 4% {1%} [3%] (1%)
- Gary Johnson 1% {1%}
- Someone else/Not sure 7% {5%} [5%] (8%) {12%}
Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?
- Strongly committed to that candidate 55%
- Might end up supporting someone else 45%
DMR’s 2012 Caucus blog has the story:
Republican activist Darrell Kearney, founder of the Conservative Club of Des Moines, tonight endorsed Newt Gingrich, saying he’s “the most prepared conservative leader to be president since Ronald Reagan.”
Kearney endorsed Mitt Romney four years ago. He said Romney is “my second choice today.”
What won over Kearney is the depth of Gingrich’s knowledge of American history, his understanding that “America’s greatness comes from God,” and his belief in free enterprise, he said in a statement released to The Des Moines Register.
Kearney, who is also finance director for the Polk County Republican Party, has met almost every Republican candidate for president since 1980 – and was a volunteer or staff person for many of them, he said.
Full story here.
Meanwhile, do some Democratic activists fear Newt more than Mitt in the general election? According to a story in the Washington Post, it appears so:
Newt Gingrich would be such a weak challenger to President Obama, according to Rep. Barney Frank, that his nomination would be “the best thing to happen to Democrats since Barry Goldwater.”
Democratic strategist Jim Jordan says he and others in the party “passionately” want to face Gingrich. And from the right, conservative pundit Ann Coulter is warning fellow Republicans that the former House speaker’s past extramarital affairs and other baggage make him a far less formidable nominee than Mitt Romney.
But even as Gingrich’s sudden rise has filled many Obama supporters with cheer and some Republicans with dread, some Democratic strategists worry that the combative Gingrich presents some challenges for the Obama campaign that would not exist if Romney were the GOP candidate.
Where Romney, the former business executive and Massachusetts governor, poses a threat in his ability to win independents and conservative Democrats attracted to his image as an economic Mr. Fix-It, Gingrich could pursue a strategy that combines energizing the conservative base and chipping away Democratic support among Hispanics — an electoral formula that helped George W. Bush win in 2004.
Some Democrats believe that Gingrich, a hero of the conservative movement, would excite the party base more than a former liberal-state governor with a history of centrist views. And voters yearning for authenticity may be more open to the voluble and rumpled former House speaker, who frequently discusses his past mistakes and his recent conversion to Catholicism, than to a former equity-fund executive with perfect salt-and-pepper hair.
“He does not carry Wall Street baggage,” said one Democratic strategist working on the Obama reelection effort, speaking on the condition of anonymity to freely discuss his thinking. “He’s really smart. He’s definitely authentic.”
Perhaps most significantly, Gingrich has an extensive Hispanic outreach organization, which he has been building for years. Unlike anything in the Romney playbook, that network could give Gingrich a head start slicing into Obama’s base in key states in the Mountain West, where Hispanics are a fast-growing swing voting bloc. Polls show Hispanic voters, two-thirds of whom backed Obama in 2008, still favor the president — but GOP strategists believe that winning 40 percent of that vote could disrupt Obama’s electoral college strategy by putting Colorado, Arizona and Nevada in the Republican column.
Gingrich is distributing a weekly Spanish-language newsletter to Hispanic voters (the subject line is “Newt con nosotros,” or “Newt with us”), holding a monthly call with community leaders, even studying Spanish and using it in appearances on Univision, the Spanish-language network.
As Romney has run hard to the right on immigration, running the risk of alienating Hispanic voters, Gingrich has pursued a more centrist course. He has expressed support for legalizing some immigrants with deep ties to the United States, a position that Romney has derided as “amnesty.”
One of Gingrich’s top advisers, Lionel Sosa, was the architect of the strategy that helped Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush each win about 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. As a result, some Democrats worry, Gingrich could attract Hispanic swing voters disappointed in Obama’s immigration or economic policies.
“The possibility of a Gingrich nomination does scramble the deck, and it may mean that President Obama has to be more assertive on immigration issues,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, a liberal immigrant advocacy group.
Interesting read. Be sure to read it all here.
