TelOpinion Research (R) Florida 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 27%
- Newt Gingrich 26%
- Ron Paul 5%
- Michele Bachmann 4%
- Rick Perry 4%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
- Rick Santorum 1%
- Undecided 31%
Survey of 780 Republican voters was conducted December 15-19, 2011
Inside the numbers:
Among self-identified members of the tea-party movement, Gingrich leads by eight points, 28-16. The two men almost evenly divide other voters, 28-26 in favor of Romney.
Gingrich also leads by 14 percentage points among very conservative voters, while Romney holds a 15-point edge among those who call themselves “somewhat conservative.” The two are essentially tied among moderates, with Gingrich holding a 20-17 advantage.
Gingrich also leads Romney among those who attend church more than once a week, with those who go to church weekly about evenly split. Voters who attend less frequently favor Romney, often strongly.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
December 30th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
Well that one is outdated and irrelevant. Good to see Mitt ahead of Newt even at those early dates. If this is accurate at all, Mitt is looking good in Florida.
December 30th, 2011 at 12:55 pm
Noot is obviously going to lose some of these numbers when he drops out Wednesday.
December 30th, 2011 at 12:55 pm
That’s expected. In SC the numbers are probably the same.
This is probably the last FL poll where we’ll see him ahead of Santorum
December 30th, 2011 at 12:59 pm
If Romney win Iowa we might see a 4 state sweep for the first time. That would be great for what many consider a “weak frontrunner”.
December 30th, 2011 at 1:01 pm
I hope so Micah
December 30th, 2011 at 1:02 pm
I’m betting that Mitt strategically rolls out his Florida endorsements from Rick Scott and Charlie Crist immediately after the Florida primary.
December 30th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
I would imagine Newt strongest early state to be Florida. He is a moderate, pro-senior, and pro-immigration Republican. They also probably don’t care as much about his past. But, once the Romney train hits here it’s all over.
December 30th, 2011 at 1:05 pm
Get us a Rasmussen pull for FL after NH. Then we’ll know.
December 30th, 2011 at 1:05 pm
*poll
December 30th, 2011 at 1:07 pm
I wonder why a pollster would take 11 days to get the results of their poll published in a campaign like this one. Polls don’t age like fine wine. They age more like milk.
December 30th, 2011 at 1:08 pm
So Gingrinch leads Romney with the very conservative AND moderate crowd??? He has one group fooled, which one?
December 30th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
Micah,
“That would be great for what many consider a “weak frontrunner”.”
And an even weaker field…
December 30th, 2011 at 1:15 pm
Outdated maybe, but Gingrich had a huge lead in Florida the last time several polls were taken.
December 30th, 2011 at 1:15 pm
12.
>>And an even weaker field…
I wondered how long it would take someone to say that. Wonder
December 30th, 2011 at 1:17 pm
Heh.
December 30th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
Wow,
I remember all the talk of this early primary schedule really helping Mitt with Nevada, Wyoming, Michigan being early States etc, and how he’d need those to help him get some steam.
Well, it may just turn out that Mitt takes Iowa, NH, Florida and who knows, maybe even South Carolina?
Still waiting for the “twist” in this race. Santorum? Paul? Perry? Just can’t picture any of those guys challenging Mitt for long.
Noot? Just can’t see him rebounding.
Iowa will be interesting, but it’s looking good for Mitt. Perhaps this becomes a two-man race, but I just can’t see who the #2 will be.
December 30th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
“Noot”. Snicker. If this goes to the hardest working candidate after all, the American Dream still lives.
December 30th, 2011 at 2:03 pm
So Florida doesn’t like Ron Paul, eh?
December 30th, 2011 at 2:23 pm
12
Matt, you appear to be insisting on discounting any win Romney may get. You just won’t accept that he may have earned ANYTHING.
If he wins, according you you, it says NOTHING about his own qualifications but only that his competition was worse.
I can’t help but wonder what your reaction will be IF he were to become president, turn the economy around, and get reelected. I expect you’ll find some excuse to explain it away.
December 30th, 2011 at 5:34 pm
I think the bigger question than whether or not this is a weak field is this:
Assuming this is a weak field, why didn’t stronger possible candidates get in?
I think a big part of the answer is 1)They saw a tough incumbent to beat (Obama) and 2) Romney looked pretty stinking tough to beat out of the chute. Romney’s been preparing for five years (or whatever) and sane people understand that when someone has been preparing for a while, it’s going to take some incredibly good luck, money, or better yet, both luck and money to be able to beat him.
In other words… I think the field is weak because a lot of smart folks decided it wasn’t worth their time because the chance of winning was so small compared to the investment required. Pawlenty is the one exception to my theory – he is a smart guy, IMHO, but he’d decided to get in two or more years ago and has been working hard at it ever since.
December 30th, 2011 at 5:42 pm
I just remembered that four years ago before Newt decided not to run, he floated the idea that he would run if he could be assured he’d have something like $25 or $30 million to spend on a campaign. At the time, he explained/whined that Mitt Romney could just write a check for $50 million and wipe you out with paid media, which is why he would need the guarantee of money. Obviously, the money never showed up, so he didn’t run four years ago.
He never had that assurance this time, yet he ran, anyway. More and more I’m agreeing with those who say he just wanted to get his name out there and increase book sales, speaking fees, etc. And then he went and caught a massive ABR wave for a bit… too bad he wiped out when he hit a wall of Republican “No.” http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/12/about_a_month_ago_when.php?ref=fpblg
December 30th, 2011 at 6:00 pm
20.
YES! Nailed it.