NBC News-Marist Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
- Mitt Romney 23% [18%] (26%)
- Ron Paul 21% [17%] (12%)
- Rick Santorum 15% [5%] (3%)
- Rick Perry 14% [9%] (11%)
- Newt Gingrich 13% [26%] (5%)
- Michele Bachmann 6% [5%] (11%)
- Jon Huntsman 2% [2%] (1%)
- Undecided 7% [9%] (10%)
Second Choice
- Mitt Romney 21% [17%]
- Rick Perry 20% [11%]
- Rick Santorum 15% [8%]
- Newt Gingrich 13% [19%]
- Michele Bachmann 11% [12%]
- Ron Paul 9% [10%]
- Jon Huntsman 3% [3%]
- Undecided 8% [9%]
Please tell me if you would find each of the following candidates acceptable, acceptable but with reservations, or not acceptable as the Republican nominee for president:
Mitt Romney
- Acceptable 50%
- Acceptable but with reservations 27%
- Not acceptable 21%
Rick Santorum
- Acceptable 49%
- Acceptable but with reservations 22%
- Not acceptable 22%
Rick Perry
- Acceptable 44%
- Acceptable but with reservations 29%
- Not acceptable 24%
Michele Bachmann
- Acceptable 37%
- Acceptable but with reservations 25%
- Not acceptable 34%
Newt Gingrich
- Acceptable 35%
- Acceptable but with reservations 28%
- Not acceptable 35%
Ron Paul
- Acceptable 35%
- Acceptable but with reservations 21%
- Not acceptable 41%
Which one of the following candidates do you think can best debate President Obama?
- Newt Gingrich 37%
- Mitt Romney 26%
- Ron Paul 13%
- Rick Perry 7%
- Michele Bachmann 4%
- Rick Santorum 3%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
- None 2%
- Undecided 7%
Which one of the following candidates do you consider to be the true conservative?
- Rick Santorum 23%
- Ron Paul 21%
- Michele Bachmann 16%
- Rick Perry 11%
- Mitt Romney 7%
- Newt Gingrich 6%
- Jon Huntsman 2%
- None 4%
- Undecided 9%
Which is more important to you:
- The Republican nominee for president is a true conservative 54%
- The Republican nominee for president can best debate President Obama 39%
Do you want Jeb Bush to run for president in 2012, or not?
- Yes 17%
- No 70%
Do you want Sarah Palin to run for president in 2012, or not?
- Yes 14%
- No 81%
Would you describe yourself as a fundamentalist or an evangelical Christian, or would you not describe yourself that way?
- Yes 46%
- No 54%
Survey of 433 likely GOP caucus-goers was conducted December 27-28, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 27-29, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses.
-–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
December 30th, 2011 at 11:31 am
From those numbers, looks like Perry could get a 3rd place finish in Iowa. I think Perry is the only one that can challenge Romney at this point…
December 30th, 2011 at 11:33 am
Too bad for Bachmann. I suspected that she would get a 2nd look in Iowa when Newt fell down, but it looks as though that vote is being divied up by Newt, Perry, and Santorum.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:37 am
Interesting that Romney is leading the 2nd choice numbers.
That probably means he is leading among undecideds as well, no?
December 30th, 2011 at 11:39 am
Mitt Romney
•Not acceptable 21%
Rick Santorum
•Not acceptable 22%
Rick Perry
•Not acceptable 24%
Michele Bachmann
•Not acceptable 34%
Newt Gingrich
•Not acceptable 35%
Ron Paul
•Not acceptable 41%
Excellent.
Maybe we can dial down the persecution complex now. If there were legions of eeeeeeeeeeeeeevil evangelicals out there carrying out sinister conspiracies, it would show up in that figure, as they wouldn’t even have to cop to being anti-Mormon, but simply say Mitt is “not acceptable” for whatever unspecified reason.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:40 am
Interesting demographics on the Evangelicals. I suspect the decline of Churches since the recession is starting to show up. There’s a reason why the social conservative movement is subdued this time around. The passion on social issues always came from the Evangelicals, not the Catholics or mainline Protestants who agreed with them but didn’t get excited about it.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:41 am
The topline numbers are similar to the other recent Iowa polls.
I’m sure Mitt is hoping Santorum and Perry stay on each others’ bumpers.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:41 am
Matt “MWS”,
only the decent, likable evangelicals carry out sinister conspiracies. The evil ones picket military funerals.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:41 am
Yep, Romney is a lock for both Iowa and NH.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:41 am
Interesting … Mitt not only has the highest “acceptable” percentage, but also the highest combined “acceptable + acceptable but with reservations” percentage. Thus, he also has the lowest “not acceptable” percentage.
So much for the NotRomney movement.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:42 am
Romney now has a slight lead in the RCP average. The polls right before the caucus have always predicted the winner, but this is pretty close and it will be interesting to see if that record holds up this time. Intrade also has Romney at highest percentage to win Iowa.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:42 am
It is rather remarkable how closely this survey matches the other five polls conducted at roughly the same time, CNN (12/22-27), PPP (12/26-27), ARG (12/26-28), Insider Advantage (12/28) and Rasmussen (12/28).
This latest release reports Romney with 23% support. This survey’s margin of error (ME) is +/-4.7 points. That means that Romney’s Probable Support Range (PSR) is probably 18-28%. Romney’s highest PSR comes from CNN, 20.5-29.5%, which means Romney is probably no lower than 20.5. Romney’s lowest PSR comes from Insider Advantage, 12.3-21.7%, which means Romney is probably no higher than 21.7%. So Romney’s Cumulative PSR (CPSR) is 20.5-21.7%.
Here’s the CPSRs for all candidates in Iowa at the moment, based on these current six polls (DK stands for Don’t Know or Undecided):
IOWA Composite 12/22-28
Romney 20.5-21.7
Paul 19.9-20
Santorum 12-14.1
Gingrich 13-17
Perry 9.3-13
Bachmann 7.3-9
DK 6-6.5
Cain 0-4
Huntsman 2-5.5
Karger 0-4
Roemer 0-4
Incidentallly, We Ask America (WAA) just released a survey which was conducted AFTER all the other surveys listed above, on 12/29. It does NOT agree with these other surveys. It shows a statistically significant downward trend for Paul, as well as Romney in a clear first position, beyond the survey’s margin of error. In fact, Paul shows up in a statistical tie for second place with Bachmann, Gingrich and Santorum. Since there is no other polling info yet available for the 29th, there is no statistically substantive information to support or refute WAA’s figures. That survey has been released at http://weaskamerica.com/2011/12/30/consensus-romney/ for those who are curious.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:42 am
And Bachman would have done great in NH unlike Santorum who would get zero traction outside of the South and will have no funds. Geez way to go Iowa. Good job in picking a limited not Romney.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:43 am
Interesting, so with Ron Paul, you’re either in or you’re out.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:44 am
Matt “MWS”
The True conservative number is fascinating to say the least. Newt is down to 6%……Mitt is at 7%.
If Bachmann’s numbers truly does fall over the weekend, a Santorum 2nd place finish is his floor, not his ceiling. The Romney Camp must be keeping an eye out for those Bachmann numbers…..they don’t want Michelle’s numbers to get too low.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:45 am
It’s going to be a tight finish between Romney, Paul, and Santorum. Very interesting. Santorum and Paul finishing in the top three with Romney definitely weakens Perry and Gingrich as they head into SC, which will be a must win if any of those four want to really challenge Romney. Gingrich is starting to fade in Fl and he’ll need to either win in Iowa or SC to take FL.
Of course, Romney could take Iowa and NH, and be propelled into SC, as we’ve all been told a bejillion times:
IA + SC = FL = The nomination
December 30th, 2011 at 11:49 am
4. “If there were legions of eeeeeeeeeeeeeevil evangelicals out there carrying out sinister conspiracies, it would show up in that figure, as they wouldn’t even have to cop to being anti-Mormon, but simply say Mitt is “not acceptable” for whatever unspecified reason.”
No one has claimed that there were “legions” of these bigots. But they do exist and they are in that 21% that say Romney is “unacceptable”. They might even be the majority of the 21% for all we know.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:50 am
Smacks,
Given his trajectory, I’m confident Santy will have a ticket out of Iowa. He needs a little more lift to get to second, however. A victory is conceivable, but not likely. It would, however, be the biggest shock of the race so far.
If Santorum does win Iowa, I’m not sure how NH treats Mitt. I could see them rallying around him (as they did Hillary in ’08 and McCain in ’08 and ’00). I could some of them abandoning Mitt, as they did him in ’08.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:51 am
Things are looking good for Romney.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:54 am
16,
If you think no one has made that claim, then you haven’t followed a lot of politics the last few years. That claim has been made over and over again, overtly and subtly, implied, whatever. There are people still under the delusion that bigotry was the real reason Romney lost. If that holds true, then he should lose again this time….which doesn’t appear likely at this point
December 30th, 2011 at 11:54 am
#16
“No one has claimed that there were “legions” of these bigots. But they do exist and they are in that 21% that say Romney is “unacceptable”. They might even be the majority of the 21% for all we know.”
I’ve seen Iowans and evangelicals get trashed on these boards for almost 4 years now- ever since caucus night ’08. Yes, there are some Rombots who think their “enemies” are legion.
Surely you’re not suggesting there’s no other conceivable reason to find Mitt “unacceptable”?
And look at all the bigots the other candidates attract!
December 30th, 2011 at 11:54 am
Nah, I think Perry will edge Santorum. Perry is #2 in terms of second choice and he still has lots of money. It’ll be Romney, Paul, and Perry out of Iowa.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:55 am
Noot cried at an event today, here’s the video:
Note the crying baby in the background as well, serving as an unwitting metaphor.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2011/12/newt-weeps-109138.html
December 30th, 2011 at 11:55 am
buzz is that Paul has fallen over the last 24 hrs….Some thinking a Possible Romney, Satorum, Perry finish…..
December 30th, 2011 at 11:56 am
17,
I think Santorum ends up in second. It might make him a player in SC. I don’t think it changes NH. Newt and Perry will make their final stand in SC, Huntsman in NH. Bachmann exits after IA. Paul is Paul, who knows, he will have the needed legitimacy, even if it is of the niche variety, to continue for a while.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:57 am
22,
Thanks for the link……..Newt is pulling no punches now!!
December 30th, 2011 at 12:00 pm
Can we all tone down the mind reading/religous talk? Its pointless.
Santy 1st.
Paul 2nd.
Romney 3rd
December 30th, 2011 at 12:05 pm
4
Matt, there are only one or two that keep coming back to that.
My feeling is the sinister efforts are coming from a fair number of evangelical leaders and personalities but NOT from the general congregations.
December 30th, 2011 at 12:06 pm
My prediction:
1. santorum
2. paul
3. romney
4. perry
5. gingrich
6. bachmann
7. huntsman
December 30th, 2011 at 12:09 pm
Early Predictions (to possibly be revised after the DMR poll)
1) Romney – bigotry and all
2) Santorum/Paul- too close to call
4) Gingrich
5) Perry
6) Bachmann- exits the race
7) Huntsman- should have already exited the race but will ‘fight’ in NH
December 30th, 2011 at 12:10 pm
I’m just wondering whether it helps or hurts Romney as the field begins to cull.
If 2 or 3 drop out after Iowa, will the ABR’s coalesce? Or, will they start to come around to Mitt?
December 30th, 2011 at 12:18 pm
29. Interesting question. Here’s my take. Let’s assume, for argument’s sake, that of the four SocCons only Perry and Bachmann drop out after Iowa. That means both Gingrich and Santorum keep going, so the SocCon vote continues to split and Romney is therefore helped. On the other hand, if, for example, Santorum does magnificently, and the force of his showing knocks out Bachmann, Gingrich and Perry, then I’d say Romney would be pretty unhappy.
December 30th, 2011 at 12:23 pm
“The evil ones picket military funerals.” You are confused with a lawyer in Kansas who falsely claims that he is some pastor.
December 30th, 2011 at 12:25 pm
20. Research has shown that a good portion of calling Romney a “flip flopper” during the last cycle was rooted in the anti-Mormon mime of “Mormons are dishonest”.
Since then, alot of the bigotry has been exposed for what it was. This exposure has resulted in an overall reduction, I think.
It is still out there.
But, now, some (but not all) rather than admit that it is religion will make some other ridiculous claim. When confronted on it, some revert back to religion.
I have seen it happen more than once. That tells me that it is real, but it doesn’t tell me how prevalent it is.
December 30th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
Rombots,
Why are we talking about Mormonism 4 days before Iowa? Shhhhhh!
December 30th, 2011 at 12:51 pm
33. I don’t know. But this is interesting (but not Mormon).
http://blogs.cbn.com/thebrodyfile/archive/2011/12/30/only-on-brody-file-gingrichs-altar-call-to-iowa-pastors.aspx
The Newton fighting for some of that “Evangelical” vote in Iowa.
“These are important and critical days in which to live and serve the Lord. I’m praying that the Lord is doing something dramatic in our time, and Iowa is leading the way on January 3rd.
“Newt is leading the thrust to remove elitist judges who ignore the American people, like the 3 Iowa Supreme Court Justices who voted in 2009 to impose homosexual marriage on all Iowans.”
December 30th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
“20. Research has shown that a good portion of calling Romney a “flip flopper” during the last cycle was rooted in the anti-Mormon mime of “Mormons are dishonest”.” This is crazy research. You are trying to say that the average Mormon is less honest than the average non-Mormon? C’mon! Where do you pull this non-sense from?
December 30th, 2011 at 1:42 pm
It’s impossible to predict an actual winner here. The numbers are too close, but what’s apparent is that Paul, Romney, Santorum in some order, will be top three. Huntsman, Bachmann and Perry likely in second tier.
The prediction I will make at this time is that NO ONE drops out after Iowa. With the differential so thinly spread, the wanna be candidates will not be able to resist the allure/attention of South Carolina.
December 30th, 2011 at 3:45 pm
37. “The prediction I will make at this time is that NO ONE drops out after Iowa.”
I like the 50+% rule. After the caucus is over, take a look at the percentage numbers for the leaders. I consider the successful candidates to be those who succeeded in accruing a percentage of the total such that their total needs to be added in order to top 50%.
As in: let’s say Romney gets 17%, Paul gets 16%, Santorum gets 15%, Gingrich gets 14% and Perry gets 13%. In that example, adding Paul to Romney gets you to 33%, adding Santorum to that gets you 48%, adding Gingrich to that gets you to 62% and BOOM; that’s it, end of ball-game. Romney, Paul, Santorum and Gingrich are the Iowa winners’ cause over half of the Iowa electorate voted for them, but over half of the electorate REFUSED to vote for Perry, Bachmann and Huntsman, making the latter three the big Iowa losers.
The principle of the 50% rule is that you’re looking for a candidate who could potentially get the support of over half of Iowa Republicans. In the above example, Perry, Bachmann and Huntsman have demonstrated that they cannot do so.
December 30th, 2011 at 3:57 pm
38. Interesting theory on the 50% rule. Tuesday will be a very interesting day. Or, I guess Wednesday, since that’s when we’ll get the results.
For those of you who’ve followed this,what kind if info and updates will get get Tuesday night?
When can we expect definitive results?
December 30th, 2011 at 4:40 pm
38: That logic of ranking doesn’t make too much sense to me as there is only a 4% spread from 1st to 5th.
December 30th, 2011 at 6:41 pm
Wrong Keith we will get the results late Tues night.
December 30th, 2011 at 7:15 pm
41. Oh, Super! Thanks, Heath.
December 30th, 2011 at 10:42 pm
No worries mate happy new year! Looks like being a great one for us Romney supporters
.