4 days until Iowa…
Intrade
Romney to win GOP nomination: 76.9
Paul to win GOP nomination: 5.7
Gingrich to win GOP Nomination: 5.7
Obama to win reelection: 52.4
Iowa Caucuses Winner: Romney 50.0 - Paul 37.9 – Rick Santorum 10.8
New Hampshire Primary Winner: Romney 89.5 – Paul 8.9 – Huntsman 2.0
South Carolina Primary Winner: Romney 50.0 – Gingrich 21.0 – Santorum 19.7
Polling:
Obama Approval (RCP): 46.4% / 48.2% (-1.8%)
GOP Nomination (RCP): Gingrich +2.2
Gallup Daily Tracking GOP Nomination: Romney 26%, Gingrich 24%
And as always, have at it in the comments. Anything goes…
December 30th, 2011 at 8:19 pm
Wrap it up, boys.
December 30th, 2011 at 8:21 pm
This is obviously “fish or cut bait” time. It has been fun speculating and exploring options, but the serious work of choosing a nominee to face Obama and hopefully kick him out of the Oval Office has began. That sobers up people.
How does that old saying go?
“Being hung the next morning focuses the mind beautifully.”
December 30th, 2011 at 8:26 pm
It might be sobering, but that we’re seriously considering putting Romney against Obama makes me think that we deserve the loss we’ll get in the general election. I hope we’re not that misguided.
December 30th, 2011 at 8:37 pm
#3 Spud: And just whom would you suggest?
December 30th, 2011 at 8:38 pm
3:
We’re thinking of putting an incredibly decent man, who has intelligence to burn, a work ethic like few others, experience in the private sector, clears the “presidential” hurdle with no difficulty, is a calm, collected, and focused campaigner, and who is running the most consistently conservative campaign outside of maybe Bachmann.
I don’t think it’s the pro-Romney forces who are misguided.
December 30th, 2011 at 8:38 pm
Teledude:
Try the “Storm Lake Dip” sandwich next time you go there.
Give em hell Mitt!
December 30th, 2011 at 8:39 pm
#5 Amen, Thomas
December 30th, 2011 at 8:40 pm
Even more shocking…
To win the Iowa Caucus:
Romney = 51.9
Paul = 37.0
Santorum = 10.7
Gingrich = 2.5
Perry = 1.2
I would figure that Paul is still on top. However, a lot of the Iowa polls are pointing Romney today. What’s the word on the OWS, Democrat, and student population throwing weight behind Paul?
December 30th, 2011 at 8:42 pm
#8: OWS and their demands for freebies throwing in with Paul? That’s hilarious.
December 30th, 2011 at 8:48 pm
Mitt Romney, who is only guy can beat Obama. Witness History
December 30th, 2011 at 8:56 pm
January
? – Iowa 28 delegates?
RINO – New Hampshire 12
Newt – South Carolina 25
Newt – Florida 50?
February
Newt – Nevada 28
?Newt – Maine 24
?Newt – Colorado 36
Newt – Minnesota 40
?Newt- Arizona 29
RINO – Michigan 30
March
Newt – Washington 43
Newt – Alaska 27
Newt – Georgia 76
?Newt – Idaho 32
RINO – Mass 41
?Newt – North Dakota 28
?Newt – Ohio 66
?Newt – Oklahoma 43
?Newt – Tennessee 58?
RINO – Vermont 17
Newt – Virginia 50
?Newt – Wyoming 29
?Newt – Kansas 40
?Newt – Alabama 50?
RINO – Hawaii 20
Newt – Mississippi 40
?Newt – Missouri 52
?NEWT – Illinois 69
?Newt – Louisiana 46
April
?
RINO – Maryland 37
Newt – Texas 155
?RINO – Wash D.C. 19
?Newt – Wisconsin 42
RINO – Connecticut 28
RINO – Delaware 17
RINO – New York 95
?Newt – Pennsylvania 72
RINO – Rhode Island 19
May
Newt – Indiana 46
?Newt – North Carolina 55
? Newt – West Virginia 31?
Newt – Nebraska 35?
Newt – Oregon 29?
Newt – Arkansas 36?
Newt – Kentucky 45?
June
Newt – California 172
Newt – Montana 26?
Newt – New Jersey 50
?Newt – New Mexico 23
?Newt – South Dakota 28
?RINO – Utah 40
Congrats in Tampa, Newt!
December 30th, 2011 at 9:01 pm
Poor Carig. You have right to fantasy
December 30th, 2011 at 9:02 pm
Oh great! Just when you thought it was safe to go back on Race42012.com.
December 30th, 2011 at 9:03 pm
Formatted..
January
??? – Iowa 28 (delegates)
RINO – New Hampshire 12
Newt – South Carolina 25
Newt – Florida 50
February
Newt – Nevada 28
Newt – Maine 24
Newt – Colorado 36
Newt – Minnesota 40
Newt- Arizona 29
RINO – Michigan 30
March
Newt – Washington 43
Newt – Alaska 27
Newt – Georgia 76
Newt – Idaho 32
RINO – Mass 41
Newt – North Dakota 28
Newt – Ohio 66
Newt – Oklahoma 43
Newt – Tennessee 58
RINO – Vermont 17
Newt – Virginia 50
Newt – Wyoming 29
Newt – Kansas 40
Newt – Alabama 50?
RINO – Hawaii 20
Newt – Mississippi 40
Newt – Missouri 52
NEWT – Illinois 69
Newt – Louisiana 46
April
RINO – Maryland 37
Newt – Texas 155
RINO – Wash D.C. 19
Newt – Wisconsin 42
RINO – Connecticut 28
RINO – Delaware 17
RINO – New York 95
Newt – Pennsylvania 72
RINO – Rhode Island 19
May
Newt – Indiana 46
Newt – North Carolina 55
Newt – West Virginia 31
Newt – Nebraska 35
Newt – Oregon 29
Newt – Arkansas 36
Newt – Kentucky 45
June
Newt – California 172
Newt – Montana 26
Newt – New Jersey 50
Newt – New Mexico 23
Newt – South Dakota 28
RINO – Utah 40
Congrats in Tampa, Newt!
December 30th, 2011 at 9:04 pm
Spud….#3
Who would you suggest be the nominee?
December 30th, 2011 at 9:04 pm
11,
You do realize that at the rate Newt’s going, he won’t make it past February or early March at the latest.
December 30th, 2011 at 9:05 pm
11
LOL! LOL! LOL!!!!!!!! ROFL!!!!!!!
December 30th, 2011 at 9:05 pm
“If we must have an enemy at the head of Government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible, who will not involve our party in the disgrace of his foolish and bad measures.”
- Alexander Hamilton
December 30th, 2011 at 9:08 pm
18,
So, you’re saying that you’re gonna vote for Obama over Romney?
December 30th, 2011 at 9:11 pm
Craig for losers has been drinking heavily again. He is not right in the head. God bless you Craig for losers.
December 30th, 2011 at 9:12 pm
Craig, Newt can not win any states if he lost IA and N.H.
You plan is good, but…………………………..
December 30th, 2011 at 9:13 pm
you’re including newt winning the virginia delegates that hes not eligible for. FAIL
December 30th, 2011 at 9:14 pm
22
LOL
December 30th, 2011 at 9:15 pm
21,
Even Smack who has been a one of the biggest Newt supporterd on this site has admitted that Newt will not win Iowa or New Hampshire and practically will not win the nomination.
December 30th, 2011 at 9:17 pm
18:
Don’t know much about history do you? Hamilton said that on the eve of helping deny Adams a second term. A few short years later, Hamilton would be dead, the Federalists nearly extinct, and the Democratic Republicans would enjoy one-party rule for the next few decades.
Not worth it.
December 30th, 2011 at 9:18 pm
BREAKING: RON PAUL IS TAKING THE WEEKEND OFF.
http://gop12.thehill.com/2011/12/cnn-paul-taking-weekend-off.html
December 30th, 2011 at 9:19 pm
24, I think Romney will win IA, NH, SC, and FL, then, the game over.
But Paul will still fight until June.
December 30th, 2011 at 9:19 pm
22,
Newt’s not elegible to compete in Virginia or Missouri cause he did not meet the deadline or requirements needed, yet, Craig has him winning those states. There are just too many flaws with his logic. Newt winning California, New Jersey, and Nevada? He’s kidding right?
December 30th, 2011 at 9:21 pm
What caused the big turn out in 2010? Obamacare. Pit Romneycare against Obamacare and it’s a losing proposition. Add on that Romney is anti gun and it’s even harder to sell. Add in that Occupy will be turned against him in a major way, and you’ll see 2010 in reverse. Loss of the White House, losses in house and senate.
I’m sure he’s a decent guy. He’s worthless against Obama.
Ron Paul is a far better choice. He’ll pull heavily from Obama. Look at who propelled Obama to win in 08. Youth and independents. Paul takes those away from Obama. Plus the effect on the house/senate races of all those supporters checking the R box to help Paul.
December 30th, 2011 at 9:22 pm
It’s not Craig for Santorum yet?
December 30th, 2011 at 9:23 pm
teledude, what are you predicting for Iowa results?
December 30th, 2011 at 9:23 pm
Thomas Alan Says:
“and the Democratic Republicans would enjoy one-party rule for the next few decades”
Democratic Republicans. That sounds like such an oxymoron these days.
December 30th, 2011 at 9:26 pm
>>Ron Paul is a far better choice.
Why did I know this was coming?
December 30th, 2011 at 9:27 pm
#29: Are you suggesting that we need a candidate who appeals to the “Occupy” movement? Not sure I’m following you there.
December 30th, 2011 at 9:28 pm
Metro.
No. Craig usually only jumps ship after his guy has sink beneath the waves on the RCP tally, and there is that big PPP outlier from a couple of weeks ago to roll off first.
December 30th, 2011 at 9:28 pm
#14 Craig: You know that a lot of these states allocate their delegates proportionately or by congressional district, right?
December 30th, 2011 at 9:28 pm
32:
I prefer Republicans to describe Jefferson’s party during that era, but it’s a pain to explain to people that members of what would morph into the the Democrat party were originally called Republicans. And, just to confuse everyone, they were the small government party
December 30th, 2011 at 9:30 pm
God help us, Spud is a Paulite. You do realize that Paul is a 77 year old friggin’ nutcase, right? And no way, that the GOP will nominate a crazy isolationist kook who wants to cut us off from the rest of the world allowing the Chinese & Russians be the influential forces around the world, blames us for 9/11, and wants to let Iran get nuclear weapons and is far less unelectable ina general election than Romney. Hell, he’s far less unelectable than Newt or Perry in a general.
December 30th, 2011 at 10:02 pm
Did Gingrich and Santorum meet the deadline and pay the money to get on the ballot in Florida and South Carolina?
December 30th, 2011 at 10:07 pm
19. Let Craig for losers support Obama. His magic has worked wonders and we wouldn’t want to jeopardize Mitt.
December 30th, 2011 at 10:12 pm
I for one am Glad Romney will be our nominee.
December 30th, 2011 at 10:13 pm
Craig, you were gone for several weeks and when you come back, that’s the best you can do? For the record, I think it’s funny that you can’t bring yourself to mention Mitt’s name and just say that a RINO wins some of the states. Is that your way of coping with the truth that Mitt will probably win the nomination? Also, for the record, I’m making a copy of your predictions, Craig. You know, for future reference, when Romney wins most of those states, and Newt barely wins a few, if any. I want you and everyone to see how ridiculous those predictions were.
Bahahaha! LOL
December 30th, 2011 at 10:14 pm
Gosh! I never imagined that Craig was this delusional. Does anyone have any good recommendation for a psychiatrist in Orange County for poor little Craigy? He obviously needs one desperately!
December 30th, 2011 at 10:18 pm
So, either Romney or Paul wins Iowa, and Romney wins New Hampshire, but what does everyone predict for South Carolina? That should be very interesting to see.
December 30th, 2011 at 10:19 pm
Ozzy #38 – I tend to agree. However, “less unelectable” is a double negative.
December 30th, 2011 at 10:26 pm
43
You’re assuming that Craig really lives there. He probably doesn’t. Everything about Craig’s existence is phony, why should where he says he lives be taken at face value? He probably lives in Arkansas, LOL!
December 30th, 2011 at 10:28 pm
44
Romney, easy.
December 30th, 2011 at 10:31 pm
Apparently, Ron Paul returned home this weekend for dialysis treatments
December 30th, 2011 at 10:41 pm
44,
I think there’s a very good chance the media will try to turn the race into a Romney/Paul/Santorum race going into South Carolina. They want a horserace. But as discussed in other threads, Santorum is a poor fit for the South in general, and the Southeast in particular. South Carolina is part of the Southeastern “New Economy” corridor with economic interests antithetical to the union-friendly Rust Belt. Additionally, South Carolina is very much a Conservative Protestant state, whose social, religious, and cultural underpinnings are closer to the “prosperity gospel” than to the self-sacrifice required by Santorum’s Vatican. Romney the Yankee Mormon is actually a better fit for South Carolina than Santorum. Both are Yanks, actually, and neither is a “True Christian” as far as Southern Protestants are concerned. Santorum’s only claim to fame is that he was always pro-life or something. I doubt that’s going to be what makes or breaks this campaign.
December 30th, 2011 at 10:46 pm
44. Jeff Y.
If Romney and Paul finish 1-2 in Iowa and there is no clear cut Tea Party #3 (I predict a Perry Santorum slugfest with Santorum 2 to 3 points ahead of Perry) Then – Romney cruises in NH and Paul will take 2nd in the Granit State. In SC The Tea Party vote will split between Perry, Santorum and a few homers for Newt and open a path for a Romney victory…GAME OVER. Even if Romney does not win in SC he is the only one with organization and money to get his message out in the very expensive Florida media market. February is pretty much a Romney sweep. The only questionable state is Colorado and that is a caucus state and Romney is the only candidate with organization on the ground. The pundits don’t want to call the race early but the truth is… unless Romney falls to 3rd or lower in Iowa Tuesday… this will be a VERY Short Race.
December 30th, 2011 at 10:56 pm
Does the government pay for Ron Paul’s dialysis? Let’s see, if he’s on the federal health care plan as a congressman, then me thinks I’m paying for his care. Is that an acceptable libertarian/constitutional position? Just askin….
December 30th, 2011 at 11:00 pm
The caveat to the corronation of Mitt is the open primary process, and specifically, how many kooks from the left will crash the voting to throw chaos into this? If a bunch of them want to derail Romney(as the only real threat to BO, do they all go in for Paul or Santorum or Huntsman(in NH)? I realize their capacity to get organized around one “not Romney” is even less than the So Cons/Evangelicals, but it still makes me nervous.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:04 pm
52
I’m not worried about it. A lot of them say they will vote in the GOP, but they will decide at the last minute, “Nah, forget it.”
This happens every election, and it never amounts to anything.
December 30th, 2011 at 11:12 pm
KGl I would not be worried about CO as it relates to Mitt. Many supporters here for Romney. Personally NV is what I worry about for a Paul victory. He could squeak through there. he did well last time in NV
December 30th, 2011 at 11:17 pm
corep,
You should call yourself Colorado Conservative, and we’ll give you the nickname “CoCo!”
Do it!
December 30th, 2011 at 11:28 pm
I am excited how things are shaping up for Mitt…but a little worried that Obama and his machine will have nearly 9 months to try to savage him instead of breaking that up amongst several candidates…hopefully he is ready for those kind of punches!
December 31st, 2011 at 12:07 am
bunskyred.56,
You forget that Mitt will have nearly 9 months to give him the same treatment.
December 31st, 2011 at 1:33 am
#52…Yeah, I’m a little nervous about that too.
How many hardcore Lefties with time on their hands want to rescue Big O bad enough to do that?
December 31st, 2011 at 1:34 am
#57…Get point marK
And, it will be better for our side to be firing ammo at Big O rather than each other during that time.
More Cost-effective too!
December 31st, 2011 at 2:10 am
29
Are you sincere and misinformed? Or, maliciously spreading misinformation, here? Oops. I just read your support for Ron Paul, so that means you’re NOT open to a discussion based on reality. But, for those honest folk who might be reading this…
The 72 MassCare stands up just fine against the 7200 page ObamaCare plans. There’s just not much similarity between them. Primarily, MassCare makes sure everyone in MA has insurance. Whereas ObamaCare practically takes over US healthcare. MassCare is paid for. ObamaCare doesn’t have funding figured out yet.
Romney is NOT anti gun and in fact received a a nice endorsement by GROVER NORQUIST from the board of directors of the NRA:
December 31st, 2011 at 2:11 am
60 Should be:
The 72 PAGE MassCare stands up just fine against the 7200 page ObamaCare plans.
December 31st, 2011 at 2:17 am
56
First of all, yes, Mit’s ready for the punches.
But, even if the race is drawn out with a few challengers to Mitt, Obama won’t be wasting his time and money on them. It will all be against Mitt. So, let’s just get it over with quickly and less painfully.
December 31st, 2011 at 2:41 am
I just got a chance to pop onto the forum after a busy couple days. How nice to see Romney leading all Iowa polls and a Florida poll while still holding a big lead in NH.
Now all we need is a recent SC poll. With the recent Rasmussen showing him trouncing Obama while Newt loses handily to Obama, Romney has the wind at his back. Let’s keep him in our prayers.
December 31st, 2011 at 4:01 am
At this point with Romney predicted to win the first 5 states by Intrade & Romney leading in polls in all of those states that were recently polled the race is getting less interesting.
Now I’m wondering how much Romney will win by, much more than I’m wondering IF he’ll win.
If Romney actually won the first 5 states, he’d likely win most if not all on the next 7 states. This could be a real blow-out.
December 31st, 2011 at 4:09 am
14 I’d wager Gingrich is more likely to not win a single state than win as many states as you’re predicting.
December 31st, 2011 at 4:21 am
64. It’s still very interesting to me, aspire, because I’m more interested in Mitt getting elected than I am in how he gets there.
December 31st, 2011 at 7:20 am
Spud. You have no Idea who Romney is or what he is capable of doing.Romney will win the nomination and then the general.Romney will Put America into a U-turn and on to recovery.Romney as President may not take it as far as I want to go such as removing DOE EPA and Cutting the IRS down to around 50 percent of what it is But he will at least deflate them. Romney will be an amazing President. Romney 2012!
December 31st, 2011 at 11:19 am
Romney takes Iowa and New Hampshire which makes him the best Republican candidate in history, although the weakest frontrunner ever.