Rasmussen Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
- Mitt Romney 23% {25%} [23%] (19%) {21%} [17%] (21%)
- Ron Paul 22% {20%} [18%] (10%) {10%} [14%] (16%)
- Rick Santorum 16% {10%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%]
- Newt Gingrich 13% {17%} [20%] (32%) {9%} [2%] (5%)
- Rick Perry 13% {10%} [10%] (6%) {7%} [29%] (12%)
- Michele Bachmann 5% {6%} [9%] (6%) {8%} [18%] (22%)
- Jon Huntsman 3% {4%} [5%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (2%)
Survey of 750 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants was conducted December 28, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 19, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 15, 2011are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 19, 2011are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 31, 2011are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 4, 2011are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Romney leads among Republican voters with 26% support, followed by Santorum at 19%. Gingrich and Paul each attract 15% support from Republican voters while Perry earns 12%.
Among non-Republicans who plan to participate, Paul dominates with 38% of the vote. Romney is a distant second among non-Republicans at 15% followed by Perry at 14%.
Forty-one percent (41%) of all caucus participants say they still could change their minds, and six percent (6%) more have no first preference, suggesting that much could still change in the next five days..
Among voters who could still change their minds, Romney remains the leading second choice with 20% support. Perry and Santorum are next with 17% support each, followed by Gingrich and Paul who both earn 12% of the vote. Bachmann is the second choice of nine percent (9%) of those caucus participants who could change their mind, while three percent (3%) would opt for Huntsman.
Sixty-one percent (61%) have a favorable opinion of Santorum, 60% say the same of Romney and 58% offer a positive view of Perry earn the highest favorable ratings from likely caucus-goers. Just 49% have a positive opinion of Paul and only 45% say the same of Gingrich.
At the other extreme, 27% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Gingrich while 24% say the same of Paul. Those figures are roughly double the number with highly negative views of Romney and Santorum.
Romney also continues to be the GOP candidate that caucus-goers consider the strongest potential challenger against President Obama. He now outdistances Gingrich who is considered the second strongest contender by a two-to-one margin – 37% to 19%. Two weeks ago, Romney and Gingrich ran even on this question.
Paul and Bachmann are viewed by 25% as the two weakest potential challengers.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
December 29th, 2011 at 1:21 pm
Big surge for Santorum. Interesting that Perry is attacking him on the radio in Iowa. The fight for 3rd place may be more interesting than the fight for first. Basically a three way tie right now.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:23 pm
Looks like IA will come down to the wire! Go Mitt!
December 29th, 2011 at 1:26 pm
1. “Interesting that Perry is attacking him on the radio in Iowa.”
LOL Just hillarious. I hate Perry and I think his tactics are reprehensible, but since I view Santorum as the biggest threat in IA I’m kind of glad to see Perry going on the war path. Perry is such an incapable, whining, dishonest weakling.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:28 pm
Santorum’s FAV/UNFAVS are beautiful in Iowa…..too late for Perry, Newt and Paul to drag him down. Santorum might get 2nd place.
Check out Mitt’s FAV/UNFAVS in Iowa in this poll…..his best posted numbers yet. Mitt’s ceiling is shooting upward…not downward.
Paul has no shot for first…nope.
IMO.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:30 pm
Reply to 4. Smack….
It looks like you might be moving the Romney way…… You are right of course. I am not surprised at Santorum’s surge, he may very well come in 2nd. I don’t think Paul drops out of the top 3 though. I think after Iowa, Newt, Bachman, and Perry are done. They might run to SC and make a fight, but it will not matter.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:30 pm
Smack, you’re back! How been ya?
December 29th, 2011 at 1:31 pm
Boy, I’ll bet Threepaw is really thrilled with his grand strategy of banking everything on Ames…
If Michele winds up in single-digits, I’m thinking Ames will be irrelevant — or else aggressively redesigned.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:34 pm
4 Smack,
Does this mean that you’ve jumped ship from Newt to Santorum??
December 29th, 2011 at 1:34 pm
It’s stunning to me that the folks ranked 2, 3, and 4 are all legislators, two of whom have never won a race larger than a congressional district. Is that what we want to challenge a sitting Chief Executive?
December 29th, 2011 at 1:37 pm
7,
Somewhere in Minnesota, T-Paw is slapping himself silly for dropping out the race so early into it. He might’ve been the ideal candidate that the Anti-Romney crowd might’ve wanted or needed.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
It would be very unfortunate if Santorum won this thing.
But I can see many Perry and Bachmann supporters switching to him at the last minute because of the surge.
I’m counting on Ron Paul and his band of lunatics to save the day.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
Let’s go Santorum!
Bachmann is collapsing, if this is correct.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Smack-torum?
December 29th, 2011 at 1:42 pm
Ozzy,
Nope.
I’m with Newt until he drops……but I can read poll results.
Look at PPP iowa FAV/UNFAVS for Newt….the last 3 weeks they have gotten worse. Newt is done.
Mitt is rising…..Santorum is rising. Paul is Paul and will see if there is a larger pool of Indies/dems on caucus night.
Everybody else is just playing it out.
Hunstmann will take a stab in NH…Newt will take another stab in SC.
But Santorum’s good finish in IA makes it impossible for Newt in SC…IMO.
I will be a Romney supporter when he accepts the GOP nomination at the convention.
Still going to enjoy the ride……I’m a political junkie.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:43 pm
Look for Santorum to do well. The IA Pastors are rallying around to annoint him. Rick S. is the heir to Huck’s Army. Yeah, time is running out, but never underestimate the West Iowa Pastors and their church buses.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:44 pm
I love the santorum surge.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:46 pm
As much as I’d love to see Romney win Iowa… there is just no way that is going to happen. #11 BC is right, the evangelical crowd will switch over come caucus night to Santorum and it will be applauded as some great Tebowesk comeback to Paul and Romney detriment in the media.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:47 pm
I want Mitt to win and I want Paul to lose. That’s really all there is to it for my IA hopes.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
The real fight is for third place. I don’t think it matters much whether Paul or Romney win first or second.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
15 KG,
Is Santorum really the heir apparent to Huck’s army or just having the benfit of being the last not-Romney FOTM not chosen by the Iowans? Every other not-Romney has risen and fallen. Santorum is the last not-Romney standing.
PS. It’s amazing how the complexion of this race in Iowa has changed by the non-participation of either Iowa’s favorite evangelical son, Huckabee, and their beloved tea party daughter, Palin. With no Huck or Palin, the Iowans have had to scramble with no luck to find a candidate not named Romney and have been unsuccessful. Now they will have no choice but to accept Romney. Something the Iowans would’ve not had to do if either Mike or Sarah ran. Either of them, most likely, would’ve won Iowa in a landslide.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
Given current trajectories, and the volatility of the race, I think it’s conceivable Santorum could win in Iowa (though unlikely).
I think less than 60% of voters in Iowa claim to be solid on their choice, he’s skyrocketing, and I think Bachmann and Perry will deflate some more as people defect to a surging Santorum.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
Santorum is unelectable in the general. He also never had the money to hire people. According to Rasmussen, Mitt has the backing of 75% of the Tea Party people. But, Paul might actually win in Iowa because there have been so many crossover Democrats. The caucuses are all about your ground movement and having enough people to drive the Iowans to the caucus site. Paul has the ground movement and so does Mitt.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
A Santorum victory would be about as impactful as Huckabee’s 2007 victory, meaning not at all.
December 29th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
Guys….LOL! Ron Paul will win iowa. I promise you…you have no idea how strong his support is there right now. These polls are way off. He’ll get over 30%.
December 29th, 2011 at 2:11 pm
24 – Paul’s major roadblock is there aren’t quite enough open caucuses to game the system with crossovers to the level he needs to secure enough delegates for the nomination, and even if there were, most of the #occupy crossovers would still go on to vote for Obama in the general. This is not to say Paul doesn’t have plenty of genuine supporters in Iowa, but if he manages to win Iowa, which is fairly likely, we all know how, and know it can’t be so easily replicated in big primaries.
December 29th, 2011 at 2:17 pm
Paul is losing his buzz in Iowa this week. The attendance at his events is not what it was, and Romney seems to have captured the hearts of the voters this week. Romney’s ground game very organized
December 29th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
If by some chance Romney came in third amidst all of this last minute enthusiasm and polls would it hurt him much? Realizing that 2nd or 3rd is what his supporters were hoping for during the last six months.
December 29th, 2011 at 2:35 pm
wateredseeds.24:
You will have to excuse our doubt. It seems like only yesterday that Smack was telling us the exact same thing about Pawlenty leading up to the Ames, IA, straw poll — and he’s a fairly credible poster.
December 29th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
MWS.21,
There is the also the human dynamic that why would someone put in the time and effort to go out on a midwinter’s evening to spend several hours for a candidate that you aren’t really all that sure about, and that you’ve only just decided in the last day or two to support…maybe?
As for the supposed firing up of the faithful by the pastors on Jan 1, I’ve got to think that even if they did, their congregants are going to remember four years ago, and know that the only thing they accomplished was make it possible for John McCain to win the nomination and lose to Obama.
We shall see how it all shakes out in the end. It should be quite entertaining whatever the outcome.
December 29th, 2011 at 2:46 pm
29
Very good point about questioning the last-minute support. Very good.
About Jan 1, I don’t believe pastors are going to be pushing certain candidates. Taking sides is grounds for losing tax-exempt status.
What they WILL do, is remind the congregants to consider their faith when voting. That message led to a clear candidate in 2008, as Huck was the only Christian-values candidate. But now, there is no obvious choice along those lines. Some could go for Perry, some Bachmann, some Santorum.
December 29th, 2011 at 5:02 pm
Are there any of the candidates that live in a swing state that might be able to swing it in the right direction?
December 29th, 2011 at 6:53 pm
No one has a ground game even remotely close to Ron Paul in Iowa. All this polling is a joke, especially the one showing Mitt gaining 9 points against Obama! The Banksters and Mainstream media are working overtime this week to fight Paul, this of course means that Paul is winning!
December 29th, 2011 at 6:53 pm
31 – I don’t think so. Newt lives in Virginia, but he didn’t even manage to get on the ballot there for the primaries. Santorum lives in PA, but last time he ran for office there he got creamed by 20 points.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:56 pm
I’m not sure what, if anything, you can take from these Iowa polls.
That said, it appears there’s a real Santorum surge.