InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research (R) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
- Ron Paul 17.3% {23.9%} [16.5%] (13.3%) {11.4%} [8.7%] (9.6%)
- Mitt Romney 17.2% {18.2%} [11.9%] (11.5%) {18.7%} [14.9%] (18.1%)
- Newt Gingrich 16.7% {12.9%} [27.1%] (28.1%) {14.5%} [11.7%] (12.1%)
- Rick Santorum 13.4% {2.9%} [6.8%] (3.3%) {3.4%}
- Michele Bachmann 11.8% {10.1%} [10.3%] (10.1%) {5.4%} [7.8%] (11.0%)
- Rick Perry 10.5% {15.5%} [13.2%] (6.6%) {8.8%} [5.6%] (5.8%)
- Jon Huntsman 2.8% {3.8%} [3.6%] [1.9%] (0.9%)
- Someone else 3.0% {0.8%} [1.4%] (3.2%) {1.7%} [5.5%] (3.0%)
- No opinion 7.3% {11.9%} [9.2%] (14.1%) {12.8%} [14.2%] (13.1%)
Among Republicans
- Mitt Romney 20.7% {19.7%}
- Newt Gingrich 18.0% {14.9%}
- Rick Santorum 13.6% {3.0%}
- Michele Bachmann 12.8% {11.4%}
- Rick Perry 11.5% {15.0%}
- Ron Paul 10.9% {21.9%}
- Jon Huntsman 2.6% {1.4%}
- Someone else 1.3% {0.3%}
- No opinion 8.7% {12.4%}
Among Independents
- Ron Paul 32.9% {27.8%}
- Rick Santorum 14.6% {2.3%}
- Newt Gingrich 12.8% {8.4%}
- Mitt Romney 9.5% {16.6%}
- Rick Perry 9.1% {18.7%}
- Michele Bachmann 7.3% {7.5%}
- Jon Huntsman 3.0% {8.6%}
- Someone else 6.9% {0.6%}
- No opinion 3.7% {9.5%}
Survey of 429 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted December 28, 2011. Party ID: 69.5% Republican; 27.3% Independent; 3.3% Democrat. Results from the poll conducted December 18, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 12, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 28, 2011are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 8, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 3, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 16, 2011 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
December 29th, 2011 at 12:40 pm
Still don’t understand why you give these fraudulent polls publicity here. There is no way that poll is accurate.
December 29th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
I find it funny that Insider Advantage, being one of the worst polling outfits in the country, gives its results to three significant figures. HA!
December 29th, 2011 at 12:43 pm
American Research Group Iowa
Romney 22
Newt 17
Paul 16
Santorum 11
Perry 9
Bachmann 8
Rasmussen Iowa
Romney 23
Paul 22
Santorum 16
Newt 13
Perry 13
Bachmann 5
December 29th, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Did they not give a margin of error? I didn’t see one in the end notes.
December 29th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
4
Probably 5.6781%
December 29th, 2011 at 12:49 pm
The ONLY reason Paul can win in Iowa is if Democrats vote for him which is very likely to happen.
December 29th, 2011 at 12:49 pm
So Gingrich has gone up, while Paul and Romney have gone down?
I don’t think so.
December 29th, 2011 at 12:51 pm
Which polls were the most accurate in 08???
Least accurate?
December 29th, 2011 at 12:52 pm
I believe Ron Paul and Romney are nearly tied, Santorum is closing the gap, Gingrich and Perry in the low teens, and Bachmann heading out the exits (and her supporters moving to Santorum)
December 29th, 2011 at 12:55 pm
Mysterious to the last!!
December 29th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
Romney had huge crowds again this morning in Iowa. He seems to be causing a real fervor there this week.
December 29th, 2011 at 12:57 pm
The most accurate polls are the candidates internal polls. Romney has decided to stay in Iowa on caucus night and do the morning shows the day after the caucus from Iowa rather than head immediately to NH.
I think I’ll go with that poll.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
Well, Romney has taken over the lead in the Gallup tracker….and the really important poll comes out Saturday.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:05 pm
11 – This is interesting. Romney really hasn’t campaigned much in Iowa this year at all before the last week or so. Many people assumed his support was pretty apathetic there. Looks like they were wrong (as usual).
December 29th, 2011 at 1:07 pm
This is not one of the more reliable firms, but much can still be gathered. When considering this poll with all of the other recent polls, the average out generally with pretty much a tie between Paul and Romney, with Gingrich just slightly behind, and with Santorum closing strong. It seems that Bachmann and Perry are in the closing days of their campaign and that Huntsman will make a stand, allbeit a weak one most likely, in NH. IA always is a wild card. Any of the top three could win at this point. Maybe Santorum even. Who knows?
December 29th, 2011 at 1:07 pm
14. Romney has the biggest upside these last 5 days because he is now the new face in Iowa. He will continue to go up along with Santorum.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:07 pm
13. What poll comes out Saturday?
December 29th, 2011 at 1:08 pm
Iowa is the new and exciting guy in Iowa right now. As much as Iowans will say they want attention from the candidates, they grow tired of seeing and hearing about the same people every day. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and Romney learned this lesson
December 29th, 2011 at 1:08 pm
A poll of only 429 people? I guess we should be thankful that it’s not also 2 weeks old.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
17.
Des Moines Register. Saturday at 7 pm.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:13 pm
18. Romney is the new and exciting guy in Iowa right now
December 29th, 2011 at 1:14 pm
13 – I thought the DMR poll comes out on Sunday. It wasn’t really very accurate last year, but that may have been a result of Huck’s last minute surge.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:14 pm
Good afternoon my young savages.
There is no doubt that this poll is not accurate. Insider Advantage is only a tad bit better then ARG. As Newt’s failing RACE42012 Campaign manager, I can tell you that Newt is nowhere close to the top anymore in Iowa.
As many of you know my good friend in Iowa move to the Santorum camp after Christie said no to entering the race. The “Eagle” has not been sending me any emails in the last week, which tells me he is working 18 hour days. I bet it is nuts in the Santorum camp as they see a window of opportunity to snatch some sort of victory in Iowa, be it third or second place.
As for Newt, he will continue on through South Carolina hoping to make it his last stand. With Santorum beating Newt in Iowa, there is no way Newt can grab enough traction in SC to win the state with Santorum cutting into his numbers.
Congrats to Santorum, Romney & Paul and their supporters on their upcoming good results in Iowa.
As for Newt’s Race42012 Campaign Manager, yours truly SMACKDADDY?….well..
…well… …
I’m taking another one on the chin.
SMACKDADDY SUPPORT = Kiss of Death!
…er wait..
December 29th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
23 – TOLD YOU SO! Sorry, I couldn’t resist.
You should listen to me next time.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:17 pm
Smack, Takes a man to admit defeat. You have gained my respect.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
Smack – You waged the good fight. You are still welcome on the Romney bandwagon.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
Boomer,
Save me a seat.
I just need enough room for my big butt and room for a 6-pack next to me.
Santorum’s beautiful FAV/UNFAVS in Iowa is going to make it impossible for Newt,Perry or Bachmann to get back in front of Santorum for third place.
Romney’s current FAV/UNFAVS in Iowa have pushed his ceiling upward…no way Paul can beat Mitt in Iowa now.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:29 pm
27,
Maybe a bit premature in your predictions, though I doubt it. I think you’re right, and I essentially know you’re right in regard to Perry and Bachmann. They are done and are just playing out the last few days now. The reports leaking out of the Bachmann camp are that she knows this and has known for a while, and is just preparing for the right moment to exit. With Perry, it should be obvious by now but I can’t give him the same benefit of the doubt. He might stick around because it’s possible he really is stupid! I’m joking, but I’m serious
I’m not sold on Newt’s demise just yet, though I think the tea leaves are pointing that way.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:29 pm
22:
The Des Moines register last poll:
Huckabee 32
Romney 26
Final Caucus Results:
Huckabee 34
Romney 23
But this doesn’t take into account that the Des Moines Register poll is almost mythical and can change election results itself. Romney had been surging before this poll came out. But after it did, Huckabee got momentum back and won the caucus.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:34 pm
29,
That is how I remember it as well. I was actually surprised by the final margin of victory even though a friend of mine on the ground in IA in 2008 had told me to expect it. The race is even tighter this time and I expect the DMR poll to reflect that. If Santorum is going to be a player in the final results he needs to be close in that poll. Because, as you said, it can be ‘almost mythical’
December 29th, 2011 at 1:41 pm
29 – I was mistaken. Thanks for correcting me. I thought it was a wider difference for some reason.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:42 pm
When did Huckabee start surging in the polls in Iowa in 2008? It seems like it was a few weeks before the caucuses. The Santorum surge feels too late to me.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:45 pm
32,
It was late Nov/early Dec. This Santorum move is much later and less defined at this point. The advantage is there won’t be an time for his opponents to cast a shadow on him. The disadvantage, obviously, is time. Second or third place seems possible at this point. Regardless, this signals the end of the Bachmann and Perry campaigns.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:53 pm
33 – The RomNot surges this year have been very quick though. I would be shocked if Santorum won in Iowa, but the chances of that happening are greater than zero.
December 29th, 2011 at 2:23 pm
32,
He started surging in late october…early november. It was slow and steady though…not big jumps. Then he jumped up hard in december.
December 29th, 2011 at 7:05 pm
The unelectable Ron Paul dominates among Independents – who will decide the Presidential election…
Interesting…
December 29th, 2011 at 7:46 pm
36 – The independents who are willing to register as Republicans to caucus in Iowa. That isn’t surprising at all, and is irrelevant to the general election.
December 29th, 2011 at 8:40 pm
37 –
I don’t see the logic in them being a non-factor. The non Republicans who are willing to spend time to caucus in Iowa are quite a large plurality for Paul. What would indicate, particularly in a caucus state that they would not vote Paul in the general election as well?
December 30th, 2011 at 1:28 am
38 – Among all Independents? No, they are not a large plurality.
January 17th, 2012 at 6:28 pm
antique us coins…
2011 December | Race 4 2012…