As a pundit, I should not admit this, but it is much more interesting when actual voters express themselves in an election, and particularly, in a presidential election. Not only is it more interesting, it is much more fun. We pundits are really a dour lot who tire ourselves out by wagging our fingers at the candidates and everyone in sight (that is, when we are not simply holding up our fingers in the air trying to determine political wind direction and velocity).
Now, of course, comes the heavy lifting, i.e., interpreting what the voters mean by their votes (as if we can’t take their selections at face value).
It is, to be fair, worth trying to translate a result in the Iowa caucus, where there are multiple candidates who will get a noticeable percentage of caucus votes, and the winner will likely receive only about a quarter of the total.
The sober news is that despite their huge egos which propelled them into the race in the first place, several candidates will call it quits after Iowa, or soon thereafter, not only because of a poor showing, but equally or more importantly, because they are out of cash (and unlikely to receive much more).
Cash is not so important in the long run-up to Iowa and New Hampshire, especially after the 2012 cycle innovation of numerous pre-primary/caucus debates, most of them telecast nationally. The biggest winner of that phenomenon in 2011, Newt Gingrich, will now see if it pays off when votes are cast. In 2004, Howard Dean was the sensation of the internet phenomenon of that cycle, but fell short when the votes Iowa came in. On the other hand, Barack Obama got attention in the grass roots cycle in 2008, won Iowa, and took it to the White House.
But cash is very important as contending candidates go from primary state to primary state, states which offer little time or opportunity for “retail” campaigning.
Several pundits, myself included, have offered up the possibility that the 2012 Republican nomination contest might go on longer than expected, even (horrors!) possibly all the way to Tampa and the GOP convention. It’s still possible, but the (brief?) Ron Paul bubble has sobered up the conservatives who want, most of all, to replace Mr. Obama with one of their own, and a coalescing around the two leading candidates, Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich, seems to be taking place. If I might guess, Mr. Romney has the advantage in this process, although Newt-as-Lazarus cannot be be finally dismissed until (if you will pardon the adaption) the elephant lady sings.
If Mr. Romney does win the Iowa caucus by whatever margin, he will win New Hampshire the next week by a much bigger margin, and then head into South Carolina with a full army. General Gingrich will then have to re-stage ”crossing the Delaware” to a state that does not resemble colonial New Jersey, and win there so to fight credibly soon after in Florida (which resembles no state in American history) with its large sub-groups of the elderly, several generations of Cuban-American refugees, recent South and Central American emigres, Jewish retirees from further north on the East Coast, American blacks and Haitian-American settlers, Panhandle blue collar whites, Seminole American Indians, and outposts of very affluent voters on both the west and east coasts of the peninsula.
Neither a General Washington, Grant nor Marshall would be able to stop one candidate’s tidal wave, should it develop.
Hurricanes form suddenly in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico before heading to the mainland on an unpredictable course. The storm of the 2012 election is now forming in the midwestern state of Iowa. Because the primary/caucus season has a known itinerary, we know this storm’s course, but we don’t yet know its name.
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-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site.
December 29th, 2011 at 10:47 am
I know it’s name:
Hurricane MITT!!!!
(Nice post, BTW)
December 29th, 2011 at 10:51 am
Gingrich is yesterday’s news. He is broken and is not coming back.
Santorum is the man to watch now. He seems to be surging very fast in Iowa. If he does well, he could be a contender in SC and beyond.
December 29th, 2011 at 10:55 am
I’m really starting to think Gingrich could come in fifth, or even sixth, in Iowa. Ditto for Bachmann. I expect she will be out of the race by this time next week, and that Huntsman will probably be the second candidate to drop out. Santorum will stay in at least until South Carolina, and I don’t see Newt dropping out before Florida votes at the end of February. We all know Ron Paul won’t actually drop out – just lose.
Perry is the wild card.
December 29th, 2011 at 10:55 am
Santorum is Romneys best case scenerio in 3rd place in Iowa.
No money. No chance.
December 29th, 2011 at 10:58 am
Three tied at 17 in today’s Iowa Insider Advantage poll per Real Clear Politics.com
One is a conservative. Newt!
Stop the moderate Romney and the racist Paul = vote Gingrich
December 29th, 2011 at 11:00 am
I still actually want the Newtster to hold on for a sad third place finish in Iowa (Paul and Romney in the 20s and everyone else in the mid-teens).
Newt is heading down, Santorum is headed up……a third place Newt won’t stop the NEWT-A-BUST, but a third place Sant could give him a push to become the true next ABR/FOTM.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:01 am
Insider Advantage is much worse than ARG, just crap.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:01 am
Craig for foot-in-mouth,
I need the 7 myths of Romneys electability again after this one…
Romney/Obama
45%/39%
Gingrich/Romney
37%/47%
OUCH! 16 pt difference.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:02 am
8. Gingrich/Obama
December 29th, 2011 at 11:03 am
From everything I’m seeing and reading about Iowa, it looks like Governor Romney’s campaign is on a big upswing. The word “enthusiasm” was used in a story to describe the Governor’s crowds, something that hasn’t been written about all year. There’s momentum in the air and that’s good news for the Massachusetts Governor.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:05 am
The crowds in Iowa have been impressive for Romney this week. He is delivering great speeches and getting people excited. The timing is perfect
December 29th, 2011 at 11:09 am
If Romney wins Iowa, this thing is all but over. NH will be won going away, and then Haley/DeMint/Graham will make SC Romney’s also. I think he will be the first non-incumbant EVER to win the first 3 contests in an election year…
December 29th, 2011 at 11:10 am
12. Watch the liberals and Romnots brains explode if that does happen.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:13 am
The best result in Iowa is 1. Romney, 2. Paul, 3. Santorum. If Paul beats Perry and Gingrich, they will have a hard time rebounding because neither of them has a firewall like NH to repair them from a loss to Ron Paul. If Santorum beats both Perry and Gingrich, he sucks a lot of wind out of their sails, and yet he doesn’t and probably won’t have the money to put up much of a fight elsewhere. Perry and Gingrich (who raised 9.2 mil this last quarter) will still have money to carry on, keeping the vote splintered and allowing Romney to sweep up.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:14 am
I don’t think Newt is the one that can win South Carolina. I think it will be Santorum, if anyone other than Romney. Newt is finished.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:15 am
12, I don’t think DeMint will endorse Romney at all until Romney has the required number of delegates. As brave as DeMint is when it comes to the legislature, he has proven somewhat of a coward when it comes to endorsing Mitt, especially in regards to his endorsement of him last time. DeMint is very scared of tarnishing his brand as the tea-party conservative.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:15 am
5 – That will be good to laugh at, if true.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:17 am
16 – That is very true. I am less than impressed with DeMint after this year. He is hedging.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:18 am
“Stop the moderate Romney and the racist Paul = vote Gingrich ”
…and end up with a womanizing, philandering, lying, opportunist hypocrite.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:19 am
14. Rob,
You make a very good case for a Sant third-place Iowa finish. I’m just getting VERY tired of the delusional tea-vangelicals getting SO excited about something (someone) that does not exist.
There is just no way Gingrich can turn the NEWT-A-BUST around even with a third place finish……he is just a terrible candidate.
Whereas, Santorum is, actually, my #2 candidate (a very long distance #2), but he could galvanize the tea-vangelicals in SC.
Who knows at this point……well, I do, at least, know the NEWT-A-BUST has happened!!
December 29th, 2011 at 11:24 am
Santorum’s low end is third…
December 29th, 2011 at 11:25 am
15,
I agree with this. Santorum looks like he might actually, finally, be gaining some tangible momentum. It might be too little too late or it might not be, but the mystery to me has always been, if the Iowans are so determined to vote for someone not named Romney, why not actually vote for someone who doesn’t make you gag while you are raising your hand? I still think if anyone wants to beat Romney they have to hope that Romney loses IA, even if he just finishes second. A Romney win in IA would essentially be the ending right at the beginning.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:29 am
If Romney’s our man, we need to get behind him and take on the real enemy. Campaign needs to be about R&R–Recovery and Restoration–and it can happen with a 2012 R & R ticket–Romney/Ryan or Romney/Rubio.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:31 am
“Perry and Gingrich (who raised 9.2 mil this last quarter) will still have money to carry on”
They probably spent what they had running ads in Iowa. These guys won’t stay long in a race where they are getting beaten and outspent by Ron Paul and his band of lunatics. They still have a reputation to look after.
Santorum and Bachmann can probably take the humiliation so I expect them to stay longer.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:32 am
I’d rather Newt come in 3rd in IA than Santorum. I agree totally with what others are saying here.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:33 am
14. I’m thinking it’s better for Mitt if Newt is #3. If it’s Santorum, the entire evangelical and far right might decide he’s finally the guy they can coalesce around.
Whereas Newt will continue to alarm intelligent minded people.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:36 am
26 – Santorum isn’t scary. The entire evangelical establishment got behind Huckabee, and that didn’t ever pose a real threat to McCain.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:37 am
Very nice post. It seems a number of things I’ve been saying a month or two ago are coming around. I’m a Romney fan. I’ve been saying that RPaul is one to watch out for, even when he was a 4th and 5th place showing 4-6 weeks ago. He very well could pull out a win in Iowa.
I’ve always wondered why Santorum was not doing better and why he was not the next FOTM candidate after Cain dropped out. (The conspirist in me would think the ABR groups have orchestrated this move to give little time for full vetting on Santorum and let popularity propel him to the lead.)
Next Tuesday will be very interesting.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:38 am
Woo hoo!
Newsmax, Mike Reagan: Gingrich Will Continue Reagan Legacy (More Newt Endorsements)
Thank you, Michael Reagan, a true conservative American!!!
December 29th, 2011 at 11:41 am
12,
Not happening. Ron Paul is gonna get over 30% in Iowa. Mark it down now…..i’m calling it. Ron Paul wins iowa with OVER 30%!
December 29th, 2011 at 11:44 am
Do you think any of the new found support for Santorum actually knows anything about Santorum?
December 29th, 2011 at 11:46 am
28
5 days left, including New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, both of which are really half-days for politics.
Here’s hoping Santorum stays low!
December 29th, 2011 at 11:50 am
“ABR groups have orchestrated this move”
LOL. ABR is a blogosphere myth. The media was for a while building and destroying different candidates but from now on all that matters is who wins. If ABR was real, Romney would have very high negatives.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:50 am
31,
Interesting question, who knows? I don’t think anyone in the general public knows anything about him, except he’s that guy with the whiny voice at the far, dark end of the debate stage. He’s worked as tail off though, so any exposure for Santorum at this point is good exposure. Nobody knows him still, so it will be interesting to see what happens if people give him a serious look. The ‘elecatbility’ question reigns supreme.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:57 am
33
EXACTLY.
December 29th, 2011 at 11:57 am
32,
You are always one of the honest ones amongst the Romney supporters. I hope people don’t fool themselves, Romney would much rather have the circus that is Gingrich/Paul as his competition than somebody semi-competent like Santorum. I know it’s not a lot, but the threshold is low this cycle, and a thirsty man in the desert might settle for even the smallest drop of water, or die cursing the lousy candidates. Romney could probably easily dispatch Rick as well, but he would much rather have to deal with Gingrich and Paul.
December 29th, 2011 at 12:02 pm
33 – That is partly true. However, I don’t see how there is any other explanation for the sudden overnight surge of candidates that no one has even heard about (like Cain and Perry). I think there is about 10-15% of the party that is dead set against Romney and will do anything to stop him. People like Craig the Moron, who jump to whoever the flavor of the week is without any justification other than that they are best positioned to stop Romney.
That is not an insignificant percentage when the front runner will likely win with around 25% of the vote in Iowa.
December 29th, 2011 at 12:05 pm
Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:
Romney 27
Gingrich 23
December 29th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
The big myth is that the RomNot crowd represents anything close to a majority of the Republican crowd. If you look at each of the RomNot FOTM candidates, they were all polling around 10% before they caught fire. The initial surge gave them about a 10 point boost and they attracted some other bandwagoners who were only paying cursory attention to the race.
If you look at the numbers, the RomNots only make up about 10-15% at best. The idea that the whole party hates Mitt is an incredibly unfair myth that is perpetuated by the media and right wing psycho blogs.
December 29th, 2011 at 12:09 pm
38 – Wow! Big change
December 29th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
For clarification of my comment, I stated “ABR groups”. I did not imply these groups were large or a majority. The polls are a popularity contest. If you have name recognition, you do fairly well. Each time a candidate started to get some positive press from Fox and others, they started to rocket forward in polls. But nothing was solid. But the ABR groups could have been staging Santorum to fly under the radar until this point. It has just been this week in the CNN poll in Iowa that showed 54% are set in their decision and the rest might change their mind or have yet to make up their mind.
Like I said, just conspiracy garbage.
December 29th, 2011 at 12:28 pm
The question I have about Santorum is this: He LOST his senate seat as an incumbent by 18 percentage points, the largest margin of defeat from a Senate challenger in 2006. How could he lose by such a big margin, as an incumbent even? What is there about Santorum that Pennsylvania knows that I don’t know? It’s as if he decided that since he couldn’t win his senate seat, he decided to run for President. That doesn’t make sense to me. There is a “What’s wrong with this picture?” element to Rick Santorum. In the debates he came across as smart, but whiny. His “You’re out of time,” remark (in one of the debates) was juvenile and out of line. If he wins the nomination, I would support him, but he is NOT my first choice.
December 29th, 2011 at 12:35 pm
42 – And the person he lost to is the most boring person on the planet.
The bigger issue about Santorum and PA for me is how are we going to expect him to be competitive in swing states in the rust belt given that kind of showing in 2006? 2006 wasn’t that long ago. I don’t think Pennsylvanians have forgotten who he is. And the same things they don’t like about him would probably transfer to states like Ohio and Michigan pretty well.
We need a candidate that can compete in swing states. I don’t see Santorum being that guy, even being from the rust belt.
December 29th, 2011 at 12:44 pm
42
It’s because Santorum is far-right.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
44. I think it’s more than that. He won initially and even won re-election. After knowing him for 12 years he got hammered in PA, a swing state. Flake from AZ (also a swing state) consistently wins by wide margins and is considered by most to be the epitome of modern conservatism.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:21 pm
It doesn’t matter what Santorum is like. The Iowa Pastors have been looking for someone to annoint–someone who is not Mitt or Paul or Huntsman. Each ABR has fallen as fast as they rose; time is running out. They are trying to consolidate behind someone–and now it’s Santorum, who is the giddy heir of Huck’s Army.
Look for Little Rickie to do well in the IA caucus–and perhaps SC. He runs out of steam at that point.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:22 pm
45 – If Flake wasn’t a Mormon, he would make an excellent VP prospect for Mitt.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
46 – Yep … it may be too late though.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:27 pm
#47: There’s always that. We have a customer (not Mormon) who is plugging for Mitt, giving him money, because he wants to “hear the Mormon Tabernacle Choir at the inauguration.” America’s Choir worked for Reagan; not so much for Mitt.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:29 pm
#48 You’re probably right. But never underestimate those West Iowa Pastors and their church buses.
December 29th, 2011 at 1:42 pm
42,
My wife thinks he’s whiny too. She doesn’t want to look at his face for 4 years.