9 days until Iowa…
Intrade
Romney to win GOP nomination: 69.1
Gingrich to win GOP nomination: 9.0
Ron Paul to win GOP Nomination: 8.1
Obama to win reelection: 51.9
Iowa Caucuses Winner: Paul 52.4 – Romney 27.7 – Newt Gingrich 12.4
New Hampshire Primary Winner: Romney 79.0 – Paul 17.0 – Huntsman 4.8
South Carolina Primary Winner: Romney 40.0 – Gingrich 27.6 – Perry 19.9
Polling:
Obama Approval (RCP): 46.7% / 48.6% (-1.9%)
GOP Nomination (RCP): Gingrich +3.4
Gallup Daily Tracking GOP Nomination: Gingrich 26%, Romney 22%
And as always, have at it in the comments. Anything goes… Merry Christmas!
December 25th, 2011 at 11:49 am
10 days to Iowa…
December 25th, 2011 at 12:00 pm
1,
And a Ron Paul win
December 25th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
2 – I don’t know, it’s getting pretty close. I hope, for the sake of excitement, it’s REALLY close between Gingrich, Romney, and Paul.
December 25th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
Can’t wait until Romney wins Iowa and this segment of the race is over…
December 25th, 2011 at 12:52 pm
Merry Christmas, everybody.
December 25th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
http://nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/poll-romney-well-ahead-in-n-h–20111225
Romney well ahead in NH – if he finishes ahead of Gingrich in Iowa the race is over basically as it won’t matter if Paul wins Iowa.
December 25th, 2011 at 1:45 pm
I have a feeling this race is going to be over very quickly as Romney will sweep all of the early states, including Iowa.
December 25th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Huckabee now predicts that Romney will win Iowa if the Weather is fair.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/politico-live/2011/12/huckabee-romney-will-likely-win-iowa-santorum-could-108657.html
My prediction of order of finish in Iowa.
Romney
Paul
Santorum
Perry
Gingrich
Bachman
December 25th, 2011 at 2:00 pm
I still think Paul may win Iowa but it won’t matter if Romney wins NH. Gigrich winning Iowa is the only thing that could possibly stop Romney now imo.
December 25th, 2011 at 2:06 pm
I wonder if Ron Paul is the reason Trump declared himself an Independent. He said he would only enter the race if he didn’t like the GOP candidate. My young adult children have decided to be Romney supporters. Yeah, Mitt!
December 25th, 2011 at 2:15 pm
A Branstad endorsement should push Romney over the top in Iowa. I think that might be coming…
December 25th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
SMACKDADDY SANTA wants to wish you all a Merry Christmas.
God Bless you and your love ones.
December 25th, 2011 at 3:06 pm
# Smack1968 Says:
December 25th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
SMACKDADDY SANTA wants to wish you all a Merry Christmas.
God Bless you and your love ones.
====================================
Same to you, and wishing in 8 years that you find the winning candidate to back for President.
December 25th, 2011 at 3:14 pm
Well, this is one Romney supporter who is not predicting anything, except that Mitt will finish near the top in New Hampshire.
December 25th, 2011 at 3:36 pm
If Iowa Republicans want to keep the lucrative Iowa caucus, they’ll pull the lever for Romney. If Ron Paul wins, that’s the end of it (good riddance) and the state can also kiss away all sorts of ridiculous agriculture subsidies like ethanol. It really will be a deathblow economically for Iowa to lose their Caucus. My guess is the savvy Republicans that are on the fence between several candidates will end of voting for Romney to prevent their state from become a laughingstock with a Ron Paul win. I also think the newsletter scrutiny will end up really hurting Ron Paul with younger voters.
I’m torn, I’d like Romney to win Iowa and put this thing away early so we can focus on Obama, but I’d REALLY like to see the end of the Iowa Caucus and the circus atmosphere it creates for the GOP.
December 25th, 2011 at 4:06 pm
I’m really praying Romney wins Iowa – less for Romney’s sake (I think he’s got it fairly sewn up, knock on wood)…but because, as I’ve voiced before on here, I don’t want to see social conservatism lose out. Right now, Iowa keeps social issues in the spotlight, and ensures that New Hampshire’s I-don’t-care-what-you-do-as-long-as-you-don’t-take-my-money attitude doesn’t completely dominate the GOP.
December 25th, 2011 at 4:30 pm
Merry Christmas to you all. Thanks to Kavon, Bob & Smack for their Christmas wishes.
December 25th, 2011 at 4:42 pm
15,
The reason your logic is flawed….is because Paul is polling well in new hampshire as well. What happens if paul wins both iowa and new hampshire? Will they ditch both states? Of course not. People are just upset because the establishment candidates aren’t blowing out the non establishment guy. The neocons are mighty mad right now…and they are trying to diminish iowa to hurt paul.
December 25th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
“The neocons are mighty mad right now…and they are trying to diminish iowa to hurt paul.”
If being a neocon means supporting the spread of freedom and democracy, by force when required, over withdrawing from international affairs and allowing tyrannical or corrupt powers like China and Russia to fill the power vacuum, then “neocon” is a title I will gladly accept.
How many people around the world are free or freer today because we acted against Communism, Nazism, etc. – well outside of the realm of simple reactionary military policy?
Now tell me how many are free because America at some point sat on its hands.
December 25th, 2011 at 4:52 pm
Paul the favourite in Iowa, with a healthy lead. Gotta give props to Paul, he has put in the ground game over the years and worked hard for his loyal support. Not good for Iowa if Paul wins but if he does, he earned it.
Big props to Mitt. For the primary thus far, generally speaking, Mitt and his team have run a great campaign. Things have been breaking in his favour as well. Perry’s early rise and fall, Cain taking away Perry’s lead and then falling, and then Newt rising. Newt rising at the time he did was great for Mitt.
December 25th, 2011 at 4:53 pm
Ohh, and Merry Christmas everyone!!
December 25th, 2011 at 5:20 pm
http://global.nationalreview.com/dest/2011/12/23/2012_RNC_Delegate_Summary_32b0d429d50bfaf71e86b156401b5f04.pdf
RNC has release the degalate breakdown via states and how they are gotten…….
December 25th, 2011 at 5:42 pm
I knew Race42012 had become a big part of my days and something I really looked forward to. But, I didn’t know how addicted I’d become until I dropped by and there were no new posts! “What do I do now???”
I even missed you, Smack. Craig, not so much.
So, it was with great pleasure I came back to see these nice Christmas wishes from you all.
And, I return them to you, as well.
Merry Christmas! You’ve all become a big part of my life.
December 25th, 2011 at 5:46 pm
Merry Christmas!
Romney wins New Hampshire:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2011/12/25/romney-leads-paul-rises-poll/At0SqxcEVf4vI05E65ip0O/story.html
December 25th, 2011 at 6:33 pm
19.. central and south america, though not perfect, are doing far better on the democracy front since we stopped continuously f…ing around with them…
December 25th, 2011 at 6:37 pm
“19.. central and south america, though not perfect, are doing far better on the democracy front since we stopped continuously f…ing around with them…”
You mean like Chavez and Castro? No doubt there has been improvment in Latin America…but for every country you can show me “doing far better on the democracy front since we stopped…” I can show you one that is free only because of our active foreign policy.
Where would Germany be today if the United States never got involved? Poland? Any behind the Iron curtain? South Korea? The list goes on.
Maybe our active foreign policy needs adjustment, but not abandonment. I say again, the countries most likely to fill the power vacuum are no friends of freedom.
December 25th, 2011 at 6:53 pm
Or the tragedy the US perpetrated in Guatemala under Eisenhower.
December 25th, 2011 at 6:57 pm
26. Truman*
My apologies to the Eisenhower administration
December 25th, 2011 at 7:00 pm
26. Third correction perpetrated by Truman and mostly Eisenhower. I withdraw my previous apology.
December 25th, 2011 at 7:05 pm
“The political and consequent social instability created in Guatemala 6 years later resulted in a very long civil war and its consequent, destructive impact upon the society, the economy, human rights and the culture of Guatemala. According to author Kate Doyle, the CIA-sponsored military coup in 1954 was “the poison arrow that pierced the heart of Guatemala’s young democracy.” ”
Merry Christmas everybody!
December 25th, 2011 at 7:47 pm
Mitt takes IA and NH!Paul and the Paulites go home or get onside with Mitt! some will vote for Obama because they hate America as much as OBama does and the rest of whom are patriots will help America get rid of Obama.
God Bless and merry Christmas to all of you.
December 25th, 2011 at 8:19 pm
Bush-Obama is the problem, and Ron Paul is the solution.
December 25th, 2011 at 8:35 pm
For those interested in seeing this friendly neighborhood FPP doing something entirely different, here’s my Christmas Eve sermon I gave at church last night. Merry Christmas!
December 25th, 2011 at 8:44 pm
They have?
December 25th, 2011 at 8:48 pm
$10K of my money say Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucuses.
December 25th, 2011 at 8:51 pm
Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas. Looking for something to do over the holiday weekend? It had been awhile since I watched this and thought I would share: http://youtu.be/c1YvM18HmdA
December 25th, 2011 at 8:52 pm
8- Btw if you read carefully what Huckabuiee said, you’ll realize he’s NOT predicting a Romney win in Iowa.
Politico didn’t cite him entirely. Better read a complete transcript. He’s actually quite bullish on Paul ‘s chances to claim Iowa.
December 25th, 2011 at 8:53 pm
And merry Christmas everybody!
Except Craig, of course.
#nah
Even Craig!!
December 25th, 2011 at 9:26 pm
As a Romney supporter it’s hard to not be excited about how the race is going. Romney has several paths to victory and it’s getting harder to see a situation where he doesn’t win. Obama is weak enough where Romney can beat him, and the Tea Party and RomNots are going to be pleasantly surprised by a Romney presidency.
I know this thing’s not over yet, but I have a feeling now that it’s going to be over sooner rather than later. I look forward to the party coming together after we have our nominee.
Also, Merry Christmas folks.
December 25th, 2011 at 9:39 pm
What two words do you never hear is Washington DC? Innovation and Productivity: http://youtu.be/f_wuYjV1RZs
This was given April 2010 and well worth the time. Do you think Washington will be able to handle this type of thinking or will it implode, which would not be bad either.
December 25th, 2011 at 9:48 pm
Craig deserve our love too… I like being able to see both sides of the coin. Thank you bringing in another point of view. Least we all become an echo chamber here. — Go Romney (since 2006)!
December 25th, 2011 at 10:37 pm
New NYT Ron Paul article. They try to get him on guilt by association. This will be running on the front page tomorrow morning. It’s actually really intellectually offensive.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/26/us/politics/ron-paul-disowns-extremists-views-but-doesnt-disavow-the-support.html
December 25th, 2011 at 10:46 pm
I highly doubt Ron Paul is a racist. But, it’s a problem, in my mind, that he published a newsletter in his name yet claims to have no idea what was in it. That shows very poor judgement on my part.
You publish a newsletter in your name, then you’re responsible for its content.
I think this will hurt much more than Perry’s Rock.
December 25th, 2011 at 10:57 pm
42
Oh, don’t be so hard on yourself
December 25th, 2011 at 11:11 pm
Perry’s rock didn’t hurt him all that much. What crushed him most was his support for in state tuition for illegal immigrants. The rest was icing on the cake.
December 25th, 2011 at 11:14 pm
32 – Thanks! That was nice!
December 25th, 2011 at 11:19 pm
If any Paul supporters don’t think the newsletters are a major problem, they are delusional. They make him nearly unelectable in a general election, especially against Barack Obama.
I have said multiple times that I don’t believe he wrote the articles, or that he is a racist. He needs to handle this a lot better though. Having his supporters try to pin them on other random people with little to no evidence is pathetic.
December 25th, 2011 at 11:25 pm
I think comparing these two articles of Newt and Romney are the choices we have in a nutshell:
On Romney:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/25/us/politics/how-harvard-shaped-mitt-romney.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2
On Newt:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-his-debut-in-washingtons-power-struggles-gingrich-threw-a-bomb/2011/12/22/gIQA6GKCGP_story.html
The choice is pretty clear. Do we want a partisan ideologue (who doesn’t quite have a consistent ideology) or do we want a competent manager that is more about solving problems than adhering to rigid ideology.
I recognize that many of the more vocal critics of Mitt dislike for the very reason why he will make such a great President. He isn’t an ideologue. Some people want an ideologue. That is fine. That is their right.
Personally, I think more partisanship and more ideological extremism is the last thing we need right now. I know many people here, most of them RomNots, disagree with me. They think a red meat bomb thrower is exactly what we need to shake the country up. I personally think the last thing we need right now, when we are on the verge of more economic trouble, is more political shaking up. What we need is a competent and proven problem solver.
That is the #1 reason, among others, that I support Romney. I can’t imagine anyone that believes our problems can be solved would want anyone else. But I also realize that others don’t believe our problems can be solved without the system being overhauled in a major way. I totally disagree, but I respect that others have other opinions. I just hope we can get through the next month or two without a major split in our opposition to the biggest threat to our country, Barack Obama.
December 25th, 2011 at 11:36 pm
46. I am sure Paul did not write the articles, and I am sure his supporters are delusional.
December 25th, 2011 at 11:47 pm
43
HAH! That, of course, should have read:
…poor judgement on HIS part.
or, maybe I meant:
…poor judgement in my mind.
No, that’s no good. Let’s stick with HIS part. Whew!
December 25th, 2011 at 11:47 pm
Merry Christmas. The God and Saviour of the whole World was born in the flesh to pay for all the sins of all men. Kyrie Eleison. Maranatha.
December 26th, 2011 at 12:35 am
Believe in Jesus Christ and confess to God that you are a sinner.
December 26th, 2011 at 1:00 am
41 No more intellectually offensive than Paul going on Leno and saying Bachmann hates Muslims. Live by the sword…
December 26th, 2011 at 2:49 am
“older Iowans are tuning out disproportionately this time around.”
Paul will win the Caucus
December 26th, 2011 at 6:42 am
“If Iowa Republicans want to keep the lucrative Iowa caucus, they’ll pull the lever for Romney”
Bingo!
You nailed it. Now just keep an eye on Terry Branstad.
December 26th, 2011 at 7:04 am
Allow me to be the first to wish everyone a Happy Boxing Day!
December 26th, 2011 at 10:15 am
“Newt and I agreed that the analogy is December 1941″, Michael Krull, National Campaign Director
Yes, failing to collect 10k valid signatures, when you had almost half a year to do it, and the rules had been there for decades, it’s almost like Pearl Harbor
r
http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/newt-my-ballot-fail-pearl-harbor/276121
December 26th, 2011 at 1:07 pm
26.central america far more stable, Chile, Argentina, ……and we did democratic wonders in SE Asia, gee and i would say the Iranians are still bearing the cost our meddling decades later
34. yes they have