Wow….
Rasmussen Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
- Mitt Romney 23% (19%) {21%} [17%] (21%)
- Newt Gingrich 20% (32%) {9%} [2%] (5%)
- Ron Paul 18% (10%) {10%} [14%] (16%)
- Rick Perry 10% (6%) {7%} [29%] (12%)
- Michele Bachmann 9% (6%) {8%} [18%] (22%)
- Rick Santorum 6% (5%) {4%} [4%]
- Jon Huntsman 5% (2%) {2%} [3%] (2%)
Survey of 750 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants was conducted December 13, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 15, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 19, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 31, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 4, 2011 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
Update – Byron York has more on Gingrich’s slide:
In mostly private conversations, well-connected Iowa Republicans say they have sensed a drop-off in support for Gingrich in the last few days. (See Signs of Gingrich slipping in Iowa?) “People are saying OK, let’s reassess this,” one insider says of voter opinion on Gingrich. “Is this really a decision we want to make? What I’m hearing is thinking about the general election and the unpredictable nature of him as our nominee. I don’t have any empirical data to back it up, but it’s just a feeling I’ve gotten in the last 24 hours.”
Gingrich has been the target of a barrage of attack ads on Iowa television and radio, particularly from Paul, Romney, and Perry. The consensus among Iowa GOP insiders is that those ads are beginning to take a toll. “That stuff has an impact, where people are at least going to pause” in their enthusiasm for Gingrich, says Bob vander Plaats, an influential Iowa social conservative leader.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:18 am
a one-day poll too…Rasmussen can throw an outlier out there once in a while, but they’re pretty reliable. Now we just need the confirmation poll.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:20 am
Perry and Bachmann pick up a couple more points, Romney gets exactly the number of people to vote for him that did in 2008 and boom, he’s a miracle man
December 15th, 2011 at 8:20 am
Romney is where he always is 21+-3
nothing has changed.
Gingrich or Paul will win Iowa, Romney New Hampshire, then Gingrich will win South Carolina and Florida and it’s over.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:20 am
HUCKABOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM
December 15th, 2011 at 8:22 am
Those tv ads by Paul must be having people think twice. I hope that all people supporting Gingrich realize that he couldn’t even get a letter of recommendation. He has gotten not one endorsement from people that worked with him when he was Speaker. He is an extremely flawed candidate and I’m glad people are waking up.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:24 am
Ron Paul wins Iowa.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:25 am
Intrade – Romney 65% Newt 20%.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:26 am
BUST-A-NEWT!!!
GET IT!?!?!
December 15th, 2011 at 8:26 am
If Romney wins IA, or Gingrich loses it, Romney is an early de-facto nominee and the GOP can save that warchest for the general election.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:26 am
Dang, Newt is tanking faster than I wanted. This was suppose to happen in about a week.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:27 am
If Gingrich does not win Iowa, he will not win anywhere. Period. No one has ever survived by losing BOTH Iowa and New Hampshire. Not possible.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:28 am
Remember, too, this doesn’t take organization into account. You can tack on a few points right there for Mitt, subtract some from Gingrich.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:28 am
Neither Gingrich nor Romney have to win Iowa.
Neither one has really tried to win it, because Iowa is not a critical part of either ones path to the nomination.
Who ever wins South Carolina and Florida will win the nomination, and that’s going to be Gingrich.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:29 am
“Romney is where he always is 21+-3
nothing has changed.
Gingrich or Paul will win Iowa, Romney New Hampshire, then Gingrich will win South Carolina and Florida and it’s over.”
1) In a race where you have 5 players at or near 10%, having a quarter of the vote is somtimes good enough to win
2) Come back when you’ve pulled your head out of the sand, put down the pipe, and taken off the rose colored glasses. Fact is, things aren’t looking that great for Newt right now. Oh, sure, he’s still leading in the averages – but every time we get a new poll out, it seems to show a smaller lead. You can’t win that way.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:31 am
Only Huntsman is up 150%!!!
SURGE!!!!!
December 15th, 2011 at 8:31 am
All Gingrich had was enthusiasm, and that is disappearing. Now the reality of Newt having the worst organization in Iowa, and everywhere, will take it’s toll.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:31 am
Romney needs to stop all attacks either in adds or interviews. Let his surrogates and the establishment go in for the kill on Gingrich now that he is so vulnerable.
Romney needs to start running the ads talking about his family, his faith, his private career and his love for the country (he could even throw in some humor about the $10K bet). I mean an ad with Romney talking into the camera for 1 minute about things that have very little to do with politics but instead focus on who he is.
He also needs one other biography ad talking about his record of job creation in the private sector and his record of turnarounds (business, Olympics and MA).
Finally he needs multiple 30 second spots about specifically what he will do if elected. Tax cuts, regulation cuts, repeal Obamacare, reform entitlements etc.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:32 am
13, check this out:
“Giuliani doesn’t have to win Iowa or New Hampshire, it isn’t a critical part of his path to the nomination. Whoever wins Florida will win the nomination, and that’s going to be Giuliani. He’s way up in the polls there right now.”
December 15th, 2011 at 8:32 am
Who knew that Christine O’Donnell’s endorsement could carry such weight?
December 15th, 2011 at 8:33 am
it is begin, where is Craig
December 15th, 2011 at 8:33 am
Crazy! This ain’t PPP?
More polls please, but I like it…
December 15th, 2011 at 8:34 am
It’s interesting. When you listen to people who know Mitt personally, they say the real Mitt, up close and personal is way more impressive and likeable than the one on camera and the man portrayed by political rivals.
On the other hand, those who know Newt best are coming out in droves, warning voters: Do not elect this bizarre man the most powerful person on the planet. Let’s pray voters listen up.
It’s hard for me to imagine going to a caucus where you have to voice your vote publicly. This will hurt Mitt where one woman caucus goer claimed: I would have voted for Mitt, but I knew if I did, I couldn’t show my face in church the next day.
IMO it will also know hurt Newt as a growing list of Friends of Newt come out and say, Please don’t vote for him. We know him; this is not a good idea. As the drumbeat against Newt continues for the next few weeks, perhaps caucus goers will be more and more embarrassed to cast a vote for him.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:34 am
So far Romney seems unscathed by going negative but if he continues it at all in tonight’s debate it will start to hurt him and we will be looking at a repeat of Gephardt/Dean in 2004 leaving the door open for Perry (or somebody else) to make a comeback.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:35 am
Here’s where Romney’s money advantage matters: from what I can tell, he and his PAC are dropping several million on Iowa ads this month. If Newt doesn’t win Iowa and beat Romney by at least 10 points there, it’s hard to imagine him going anywhere. Romney’s got a large enough lead in NH that he’ll easily be able to withstand any momentum Gingrich gets from a narrow victory in Iowa (0 to 5 points) and he has the resources to bury Newt in Florida if the Iowa/NH results leave the race a draw.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:36 am
Rasmussen has now shown 5 different leaders in the last 5 months. And that lines up with in reality what has happened.
Romney didn’t grow any in this poll, but with Newt hemorrhaging support…Romney will get a majority of Newt’s voters. We are starting to see that, and I think pragmatism is starting to set in in IA with who CAN beat President Obama.
If polls stay like this, add 1-3pts due to Romney’s organization in IA.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:37 am
The “Craig Effect” does it again!
December 15th, 2011 at 8:38 am
15, I do appreciate your optimism.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:38 am
26
LOL
December 15th, 2011 at 8:38 am
MEM,
What is your take on Romney’s strategy going forward, both tonight in the debate and over the next 3 weeks?
December 15th, 2011 at 8:40 am
When you unpack the poll, the numbers are even better for Romney. His lead increases among voters who have made up their minds and leads as the top second choice for voters.
I’ve said before, if Romney can simply bring out his same voters from 2008, with a handful of the McCain/Rudy voters, he will have a real shot at a win in Iowa because no one has duplicated Huckabee’s efforts in the state.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:40 am
I’ve had a feeling that Rasmussen has been undervaluing Paul. I think that is still the case.
I expect Paul will win Iowa, and follow up with 2nd in NH. With Mitts support being, shall we say, less solid than it initially appeared, Paul has a shot at getting that state as well. If he doesn’t he’s not hurt by it though.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:41 am
“As U.S. real output grew 13 percent between 2002 and 2006, Massachusetts trailed at 9 percent.
* Manufacturing employment fell 7 percent nationwide those years, but sank 14 percent under Romney, placing Massachusetts 48th among the states.
* Between fall 2003 and autumn 2006, U.S. job growth averaged 5.4 percent, nearly three times Massachusetts’ anemic 1.9 percent pace.
* While 8 million Americans over age 16 found work between 2002 and 2006, the number of employed Massachusetts residents actually declined by 8,500 during those years.
“Massachusetts was the only state to have failed to post any gain in its pool of employed residents,” professors Sum and McLaughlin concluded.
In an April 2003 meeting with the Massachusetts congressional delegation in Washington, Romney failed to endorse President Bush’s $726 billion tax-cut proposal.”
[Cato Institute annual Fiscal Policy Report Card - America's Governors, 2004.]
December 15th, 2011 at 8:41 am
24.
Thats pretty much been the Romney strategy all along regardless of who the not Romney candidate was. The fact that its Newt is a gift.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:41 am
26 – almost like clockwork.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:42 am
Romney’s strategy tonight is simple: Let the others attack Newt. Stay above the fray when possible. These poll numbers may have Newt on the attack!
December 15th, 2011 at 8:42 am
#17 I quite agree. The ball is rolling now that Newt is nuts (which IMO he is). The nutty narrative has legs. More and more people who know Newt personally are terrified into speaking out.
Now is the time for Mitt to go positive and sell himself. He has a good story to tell; tell it now. Get some help from surrogates.
BTW: I got a CD from Christie asking for money on behalf of Mitt. It was just awful. A great big head of Christie (very unflattering) just begging for money. Nothing positive about Mitt. Very cringe-worthy, SNL material, IMO. Come you guys; you have to do better.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:43 am
We don’t intend to turn the Republican Party over to the traitors in the battle just ended.
We will have no more of those candidates who are pledged to the same goals as our opposition and who seek our support.
Turning the Party over to the so-called moderates wouldn’t make any sense at all.
– President Ronald Reagan
December 15th, 2011 at 8:44 am
“I’m not running as the Republican view
or a continuation of Republican values.
That’s not what brings me to the race.”
–(Romney Video, accessed 9/19/07)
December 15th, 2011 at 8:44 am
They are busting on Newt 24/7 around the clock. I have never seen such a barrage of negative ads…you’ve all seen the ads from Paul and Romney, but they play ALL the time here in Iowa. It’s like a continuous loop.
It is not survivable, since he really doesn’t have the money to counter each attack.
I’m telling you, it is brutal.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:45 am
38 – accessed in 07 but said in 94, perhaps?
December 15th, 2011 at 8:46 am
17. I think that Romney needs to listen to DSkinner. Excellent strategy proposals!
December 15th, 2011 at 8:48 am
Look at their accomplishments. Newt allied himself with Ronald Reagan to build the Reagan Coalition, the Religious Right, and the Republican majority (together the Reagan Revolution) which directly led the downfall of the Soviet Union, the Contract with America, government reforms, less government, tax cuts, a balanced budget, and the great, long-standing Reagan economy.
Romney, on the other hand, vehemently denied Ronald Reagan and aligned himself with Ted Kennedy and the left.
Romney accomplished installing liberal big government programs, defended and promoted Roe v Wade and legalized abortion as “settled law,” advocated and implemented RomneyCare with its liberty killing government mandates against formerly free citizens and its taxpayer funded or subsidized and mandated abortion procedures.
He ran and governed to the left of Ted Kennedy on the “gay agenda” resulting in gay marriage in Massachusetts.
He appointed liberal judges and liberal appointees throughout his government.
Under his “leadership” conservatism and the Republican party was all but destroyed in Massachusetts.
Romney is one self-admitted liberal progressive.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:48 am
dskinner,
Aerofanatic probably has it right, with one small exception. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Romney actually go after Newt, if the issue is raised, on his attack on capitalism. Romney rarely gets a chance to defend first principles and shouldn’t let the opportunity pass. Other than that, he just has to hope that moderators don’t pick too many fights. He doesn’t want to be asked about his “contrast” ads, for instance, but if he is, it’ll complicate his “above the fray” strategy.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:50 am
I hope all of you realize that none of these early states matter that much. Dick Morris said the GOP changed the rules so that all electoral votes have to be handed out proportionately in these early races. So if Iowa ends up like today’s Rasmussen poll, the top 3 will get pretty similar electoral votes and there won’t be a clear winner. The GOP did this on purpose so someone cannot walk away with the GOP after the first few races.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:50 am
I actually see this poll is good news for Gingrich going into the debate tonight. Gingrich would have been the target of attacks as the leader, but now he is a sympathetic christian who has been bashed unmercifully – attacks funded mostly by Wall Street bankers. So Gingrich can be the fighter tonight, the happy warrior and defender of the middle class.
Conversely, Romney now has a target on his head. If he wins IA and NH, it is over. Voters, particularly evangelicals, in IA need to hear that tonight. They do not have the luxury of voting for candidates who have no chance to win the nomination. Romney has done what perhaps no other single candidate could do – he has given evangelicals a rallying cry. The future of the nation is literally at stake.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:50 am
“mandated abortion procedures.” Craig, that lie is a bit much, even among others in your post.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:51 am
#44 last sentence should read the GOP did this on purpose so someone cannot walk away with an early Primary win after the first few races.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:51 am
Also Romney needs to get out of Iowa after tonight and not come back until just before the caucus. Go to Florida and/or South Carolina once if needed and then head back to NH.
The only reason to be in Iowa more is if somehow Branstad has promised an endorsement, even then I am not sure if leaving New Hampshire to Huntsman alone is a good idea.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:52 am
Newt friend, Bob Bennett on Fox last night was just devastating against Newt. The Friends of Newt are not on to tout a competing candidate; they are making no endorsements. They are obviously coming out in the best interest of America.
Whomever you nominate, make certain it’s not Newt.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:54 am
Romney 60.1, Newt 16.8 on Intrade. That’s post 4 and I’m out.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:56 am
44.
That assumes that no candidate does very well in the first 4 states, not necessarily wins them all but over performs, and there is at least one or two credible candidates who have the organization and resources to take this the distance. All the proportional delegate rule did was open the possibility to a long campaign such as the one Obama and Clinton waged in ’08, it doesn’t guarantee it.
I’ve been harping on the proportional delegate rules for some time but as it stands today there is only one candidate who has prepared for that kind of race. That could change, but if Newt doesn’t start raising some serious money and building a national organization or if Perry doesn’t catch fire soon then it could indeed end early if Romney over performs in Iowa and takes NH with a double digit lead.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:58 am
I think the biggest possible threat to Romney right now is going to be Huntsman. Romney doesn’t need to win Iowa, he just needs Newt to not win and that is the trajectory we are on right now. On the other hand, he does need a dominate win in New Hampshire and they love to pick underdogs and they didn’t respond well the the barrage of negative attacks by Romney last time.
Romney,
Go back home to New Hampshire and start talking about who you are and what you will do if elected president. Undecideds are up to about 20% and uncommitteds at 50% and you need enough of those people to get yourself to about 30-35% nationally. They aren’t going to come unless you run positive inviting ads.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:59 am
Surge is meaningless. Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich. Solid base means something. 2012 will be won by that solid base.
December 15th, 2011 at 8:59 am
#51 The current assault on Newt and his dropping numbers should stymy his fundraising a bit.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:02 am
In 1980 there was a guy running for the presidency who had the backing of the establishment. He was reasoned, more moderate, had a great resume,…he would ‘appeal’ to those in the middle we were told….this is what Republicans need to win elections.
We cannot win with a loose cannon like that crazy conservative…he’s liable to say anything. Probably get us into a war with his reckless talk. Independents will flee the party and we will end up re-electing Carter if he’s the nominee.
People don’t just want that harsh partisan rhetoric, George H. Bush would be the perfect man to unite this country! Reagan will go down in flames like Goldwater!!Yikes!
What happened?
So many came out to vote for the Reagan landslide they invented a new term…Reagan Democrats.
Romney will not inspire any ‘Romney Democrats.’ He cannot even inspire run of the mill republicans. I know he’s just dreamy to those same establishment insiders who loved Bush I.
I am really sick of this same stuff every cycle from the ‘Me Too’ moderate squishes. H.W. Bush, Dole, McCain, Romney. What’s the difference? May as well go with the real thing in Obama.
Protecting their turf. All this talk about Newt being an insider on the take is proven false by the the establishment’s reaction…he would shake things up. So he must be destroyed.
I can only imagine what they would do with Ronald Reagan now…
December 15th, 2011 at 9:03 am
Awwww…..I’m almost starting to feel sorry for Craig for Rejects…………………ALMOST.
Now he has sour grapes. And nyboe is just delusional. If Newt does not take IA (Yes he has put all of his eggs in that basket and he won’t get the fund raising boost he was hoping for from an IA win) then he won’t be able to campaign well in SC or FL by the end of the month. Just not gonna happen.
And here I thought the american electorate was going to turn a huge blind eye to Newt and his dismal closet of skeletons. My faith is renewed. Now we’ll see if one of the last ABR folks get to rush up the pole (Santorum/Huntsman) or if one of the past ones will rise again (Perry – can’t see it – he just keeps shooting himself in the foot when he’s in front of a camera) (Bachmann – I would say she could have a shot at re-rising in IA).
December 15th, 2011 at 9:06 am
17. LIKE
December 15th, 2011 at 9:10 am
55. Tele –
Trying to turn to Newt/Regan & Romney/Bush Sr comparisons looks like a desperate stretch. Newt is not a Regan – sorry.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:10 am
Yes, winning a state will help a candidate’s momentum. However, what will also be interesting is the impact of news organizations showing graphs of cumulative electoral vote counts, i.e. first, second, third, etc., after the first couple of states.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:11 am
teledude (55)
I think you are very wrong. I have several liberal friends and they claim Romney is the most “normal” of all the candidates. Polling would also contradict your statement, as Romney polls the best vs. Obama. Ergo, you’re statement is just flat out wrong, unsupported, and subjective.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:11 am
Maybe Newt underestimated the janitor factor. You threaten them, they have tools.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:17 am
I’m glad to see some SANITY in Iowa! Please let it continue! Gingrich is so arrogant and self centered………..our country NEEDS a servant who is NOT about themselves but about our LIBERTY and economic freedom!!
Glad to see sanity returning to Intrade as well!!
December 15th, 2011 at 9:17 am
The men may be different…the wanted outcome is the same. The establishment was so freaked out about Reagan they ran a third party moderate in an attempt to stop him…as I’m sure they would if Newt got the nomination.
Newt isn’t Reagan, but Reagan wasn’t Reagan until he became president. I’m sure if elected Newt would work tirelessly to go down in history as the one who revived the Reagan revolution (since he was initially part of it)
What I do know is establishment Republicans will not make the types of changes that are needed. Romney will manage our decline, he will not rock the boat.
The boat needs rocking.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:19 am
#60 – I have not had a single friend or acquaintance describe Romney as normal. And what liberals like is that he defines himself as a moderate with progressive views. They haven’t gotten the memo that he has since flip-flopped (at least in words. Who really knows what he believes).
– - -
Rudy G this morning said Romney’s attacks on Gingrich reminds him of how Romney savaged him, McCain and Huckabee last cycle. He also said calling Gingrich zany was unpresidential. I hope others speak out, perhaps Huckabee.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:19 am
#55 & #60 Telly: Stop it already with the ridiculous Reagan/Newt comparisons. Reagan was attacked by rivals; Newt is attacked by people who know him best.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:20 am
Expect another shift after today’s debate.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:20 am
Gingrich is going down.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:20 am
Dskinner,
Huntsman isn’t a threat. In so far as Gingrich is “worrisome” to the moderates of New Hampshire (and his favorables there suggest he is), there’s going to be a rallying effect to the strongest anti-Gingrich. That’s Romney. I don’t think there’s any chance at all that Huntsman gets himself into the “strongest anti-Gingrich” spot within the next 3 weeks. How would he accomplish it? There’s only one debate left and is Huntsman even invited (I honestly don’t know)? He’s going to be massively outspent, killed on the ground, etc, etc. We only have, essentially, 8 days left where voters will be seriously focused on the campaign, and then maybe another 5 pre-Iowa. That’s not enough time for Gingrich’s fall to become the narrative du jour and turn the heat back on Romney. Huntsman wins 15% in NH if he’s lucky and then subsequently drops out. I expect Perry to win 15% in Iowa and Huntsman to win 15% in NH and then cease to be relevant (unless Romney and Newt look incredibly weak and Jindal or someone jumps in, using one of the two as a proxy).
December 15th, 2011 at 9:20 am
The Gingrich myth has been punctured. So he will continue to bleed support. Romney and Paul will each gain from that. And no one else is in position to capitalize on it. Notice Perry’s back at 10% and everyone else is in single digits.
Romney’s support is solidifying and people are realizing that beating Obama is the main thing.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:23 am
ROFL, I bet $10.000 the ‘winner’ of the ABC debate will soon be back to lobbying on K street.
Iowans will should now begin moving to their ‘second choice’ out of fear of a Ron Paul victory.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:26 am
Hahaha! The Curse of Craig strikes again.
It’s 64-15 over at Intrade. This is possibly the worst Craig-induced Intrade crash we’ve seen this season. Newt went from being 4 points down to being 50 points down in a matter of three days. Wow.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:26 am
Tele,
Yea moderates never win, except Eisenhower, Nixon, Bush, Bush. But that’s only 7 national election victories. Reagan’s 2 were nice though.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:28 am
teledude (63)
You sound pretty dreamy yourself. Newt is a mixture of academia, and politician. Both are the dreamiest realms possible.
Romney is intelligent, excellent orator, and has managed more than Newt has.
Newt is intelligent yes but as an academia type of intelligence, and unhealthy.
Romney possesses many more important qualities that are missing in Newt, especially temperament. He just has quite a bit more testosterone in the belly than Newt.
While Romney has been my choice in 2008 and now 2012, I would have also preferred Fred Thompson (2008) or Cain (2012) as opposed to Newt, who reminds me more of McCain.
Sorry, but your reasoning seems failing and misguided at best.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:30 am
The NEWT-A-BUST is not coming……its HERE……..mark my words!!!
But actually, I’m a little worried it is happening SO FAST!!!!!
December 15th, 2011 at 9:31 am
Matt C,
I feel bad for Craig. Honestly. He must be a relentlessly upbeat person because I’d be seriously depressed if I’d seen so many candidates I’d gone all-in on flame-out.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:32 am
O. The. Hugh. Manatee.
I just hope Newt takes a few chunks out of Mitt’s hide on the way down.
This can’t be happening. The party is choosing between two proggies. The one who turned tricks to get Medicare Part D enacted, and the other an English major who not too long ago was being a past progressive. The irony is far too delicious to be this bitter.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:34 am
72. yeah…and look what they did!
That’s the point…
Reagan showed what is possible with conservative leadership…
we will probably never have another conservative president. They are all painted as too stupid or too crazy by the insiders and the liberal media. It just gets old if you care about the direction of the country…
December 15th, 2011 at 9:35 am
Mitt Romney has the best resume. He is a fixit man. He helped the Olympics recover from scandal, he help Massachusetts recover from their short sighted issues. He vetoed over 700+ liberal Congressional bills. He converted to pro life while serving as governor when confronted with destroying fertilised human eggs. The man was very successful with Bain Capital and learned from his mistakes in 2008. He had the foresight to start preparing better for the position 4 years ago with a plan, then he has worked his plan. His family values are impeccable. He has supported with either money or infrastructure or both a bunch of those in Congress today, both Tea Party republicans and republicans anyone who would vote against the DNC. He’s been the only one attacked by the DNC, and the only one who poll after poll outdoes Obama.
He’s demonstrated leadership ability and a very successful track record.
His complete devotion to his wife of 42 years, his love of his children and their love for their father is unheard of in today’s society.
Little old ladies can give him a huge and Ann watches with a smile.
You Gingrich supporters have a exonerated Newt’s problems. You want his wife to stand in front of nations representing America. Yet the world knows that she was acting in the capacity of a call girl for six years before Newt’s divorce.
If Newt really loved his wife, he would protect her from such potential criticism by withdrawing his nomination completely and show the world that he can be a true husband.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:36 am
Having read the comments, I have to observe that the notion that Romney doesn’t HAVE to win Iowa is off the mark. Obviously, he can survive a loss, but if he wants to save a lot of time and effort, to say nothing of funds expended, he needs to win Iowa.
Back to back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire will define the narrative that he’s the guy to take on Obama……it will give cover to DeMint and Haley to endorse him in South Carolina…..leading to a clean sweep and the nomination by acclamation.
But he needs to win Iowa to prevent another FOTM.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:36 am
Is tonight’s debate about the economy? If so, that’s Romney territory. Just point out how ludicrous Newt’s tax plan is, and he will be done. That plan would bankrupt the nation within 4 years, according to the non-partisan commission.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:40 am
Newt has about 40% support from Republicans overall – not just in Iowa. It’s still a tight race in Iowa, where Newt will have a strong finish.
Around 70% of Republicans will not back Mitt. So I believe as weaker candidates drop off, he still won’t get that support.
A leader of the Tea Party recently indicated they are mobilizing on a nationwide level to back Newt. When asked if their teams would get behind Mitt if he wins, his answer was you’re ruining my Christmas. He said he didn’t know, and seemed to be leaning toward “no.” When he asked the same question to his fellow Republicans nationally, 1/3 of them said they would NOT vote for a President if Mitt wins the nomination… which they highly doubt.
I don’t see how Mitt can win without majority of the core Republican base. He never had it, and he still does NOT. Even in a general election, a portion of that base will NOT back him. From talking to my friends and family, we all agreed.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:40 am
64:
Perhaps Rudy is bitter? He may have made it further if Romney wasn’t also running. I never did like his attitude during his run, but I did appreciate his policies and he had a good bit of gusto to him.
The liberal friends I converse with mostly appreciate that Romney has an ability to think and reason, and can easily point out logical failings when people attempt to go at him during debates. They also believe he would be most likely to beat Obama. Which objective polling indicates to be the truth.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:41 am
MEM,
I think you are right that Huntsman hurting Romney is unlikely. However, I do think that the possibility that Huntsman gets a close 2nd in New Hampshire is greater than Gingrich getting a large enough win in Iowa to push him on to the nomination.
New Hampshire doesn’t like front-runners, they don’t like people who spend too much time in Iowa and they don’t like negative campaigns. I think if Romney doesn’t change his strategy, Huntsman could get up to the low 20s in NH and keep Romney at about 30%. That would be more harmful to the Romney campaign than anything that could happen in Iowa.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:41 am
Have you guys thought about 4th quarter Fundraising ? Word is that Perry has raised about $ 2 million and Newt about the same, with some debt still to retire.
Romney raised almost $ 4 Million in LAST TWO DAYS in New Jersey and New York.
CraigS
December 15th, 2011 at 9:42 am
77, you mean effectively fight the Cold War, end the war in Korea, establish detente with China, give our currency the flexibility a nation needs in a global economy, end the war in Vietnam, build the interstate highway system, helped integrate the school system using the National Guard, take the fight to the terrorists in Afghanistan, kick Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait (and Baghdad)…
Throw the moderate Clinton’s accomplishments in there, and it’s pretty clear — moderates are a good idea.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:43 am
80.
Mitt has done so in the past. Newt responded well every single time. I don’t see this changing.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:45 am
OT: Hilarious Jon Stewart clips about how the conservative media has been ignoring Ron Paul:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/12/pretending-that-ron-paul-doesnt-matter-wont-make-him-go-away/250035/?google_editors_picks=true
December 15th, 2011 at 9:49 am
Tele, I love your posts, and I have mad respect for your opinions, but the idea that a man like Gingrich, who has spent his life sucking on the public teat, whether as a congressman or a consultant or lobbyist, who is an incendiary bomb thrower, and who makes Mitt Romney look like the most consistent politician ever, is somehow like Reagan, is simply beyond the pale.
Newt is the antithesis of Ronald Reagan. I’m not going to get into the whole stupid debate of who is the most Reagan like, but Newt is nothing like St. Ronnie.
Finally, I think that Sojo/Adam has made a comeback. His new name is Monotheisticpresidentsonly. Pathetic, why don’t you just come out and say No Mormon Presidents?
December 15th, 2011 at 9:55 am
I don’t like Newt. But Matt Lewis has it exactly right here, where he echoes what the folks on the Newtist Colony have been arguing all along:
http://dailycaller.com/2011/12/15/romney-boosters-want-a-republican-campaign-about-nothing/
Mitt has yet to indicate that he intends to campaign on conservatism in a general election match-up. I have yet to hear him attack the progressive neosocialist nannying Welfare State for the disaster that it is. By adopting this squishy position, he has essentially given up on small, limited government conservatism as an unsaleable proposition.
Mitt says he can lead, but he offers no clear direction. And before the Rombats come after me with their cat-o-59-tails, that jumble of vague policy ideas is neither succinct nor coherent. It has no potential for broad appeal.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:55 am
88. And here I thought he (sojo) had self banned himself from the site. A guy could only hope. I guess he does help show how ignorant the whole anti-Mormon schtick is though.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:56 am
WOW, Rudy Guialini, what a brilliant politician he is, Sure did a good job in2008, And his I was John McCain before he was John McCain, Anybody that pays any attention to this joker is a fool..
December 15th, 2011 at 9:58 am
For my last post on this thread…………………
Smack, I still have the seat reserved for you on the Romney bus. Just let me know when you want to get back on.
Tele – I can see if there is an open seat somewhere – but the gal next to you may offer you some warm gummy bears.
Craig for Rejects – There is not room on the Romney (primary) bus for you. You’ll have to walk until the generals start. Then we’ll let you sit on the rear bumper during the general bus trip.
December 15th, 2011 at 9:59 am
What is the story with Lewis, I believe he wants Obama to be reelected, Just trash republicians enough that his pick wins. Matt Lewis is bitter individual.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:06 am
Oh snap! Told you so RomNots!
December 15th, 2011 at 10:06 am
MarqueG,
No offense, but your post is nonsense. Mitt’s comMITTment is to reducing the Federal budget to 20% of GDP. These aren’t just words. He’s outlined a 59-point plan to achieve it. It’s covered in his 160 page economic agenda.
How is this in any way commensurate with your notion that he’s “given up on small, limited government conservatism.”
Mitt will cut the size and scope of government more than ANYONE. He’s never swayed from that agenda.
You REALLY need to do some research.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:08 am
13 – Delusional. Where has Gingrich tried to win then?
December 15th, 2011 at 10:12 am
89. MarqueG,
You haven’t been paying attention.
Plugging your ears when Romney speaks causes you to not hear him. Just so you know.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:13 am
Ben at 92, no no no no no! Craig cannot get on the Romney train. Even in the general. Craig has mad assassin skills and we NEED him to infiltrate the Chicago machine. He is the most skilled political operative/candidate killer this country has ever seen. Rove has nothing on this guy.
Personally, I suspect Craig is on the Romney train and always has been. It’s the only explanation for his potent kiss of death to all the other candidates.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:13 am
The a-PAUL-calypse has arrived.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:14 am
Comparing Newt to Reagan is absurd and offensive. RomNots are truly getting desperate.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:17 am
Newt may be the best thing that ever happened to Romney. He is reminding those that are at least half-way sane that despite their dislike of Romney, it can always be a lot, lot worse.
Not sure this could have worked out any better for Romney.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:19 am
Dave, 20 percent of GDP is decidedly unambitious in terms of the post-New-Deal size of the feddle gummint. The average actual revenue that Uncle Sam has managed to extract from the citizenry since approximately the 1970s has been closer to 18 percent.
Mitt acts like he is scared to death to win the nomination and face being tarred as a radical right-wing extremist. And so he waters down everything now in preparation. He essentially intends to beat the sitting prez out of office with a wet noodle.
But the advance capitulation will not work. Just for carrying the scarlet letter R beside his name, he will be widely portrayed as a right-wing nut job by the MSM and OfA in a general election. Just ask Bob Dole and John McCain how that tends to work out.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:22 am
Newt just speaks bombastically but carries a tiny stick
http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2011-12-14.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204531404577054290268238730.html#articleTabs%3Darticle
December 15th, 2011 at 10:22 am
89:
Newt just speaks bombastically but carries a tiny stick
http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2011-12-14.html
December 15th, 2011 at 10:23 am
102 – Have you paid attention to this race at all? Romney has been relentless on Obama.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:25 am
#89 – Excellent observations by Lewis. And it is ironic that Newt’s new ad essentially makes the same point – Romney is doing everything he can to make this primary about something other than conservative principles. Because he is a moderate with progressive views and voters already suspected as much and he confirmed it.
Gingrich’s decline, if it can be believed in a one-day poll, is interesting. But equally so is Romney’s failure to again poll above the mid-20′s. He is stuck there. Come caucus night, according to past results, mid-20′s is not enough to win. Things do seem more muddled this year, but there is still time for the evangelical and conservative voters to consolidate.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:27 am
105 – your name is ridiculous, PabloZed
December 15th, 2011 at 10:29 am
Monotheistic loser, your post #45 and your name says all we need to know about you. Nothing else you write means anything, because we all know you are a bigot and nothing Romney does would get you over his religion.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:30 am
105- please elaborate why evangelical votors would want to consolidate to defeat Romney?
December 15th, 2011 at 10:42 am
If this holds, Romney will have run his campaign exactly as he planned. He said he wanted to stay under the radar and out of the limelight. He didn’t want voters to tire of him but in the end, he planned to come forward with a strong push and peak at the right point.
In order for that plan to work, he has to hold this position and not make any mistakes for a week before the election is frozen for the Christmas holidays.
The plan was accelerated by a few weeks in the wake of Newt’s unexpected resurgence so the danger now is whether he is rising too early and now runs the risk of being the frontrunner for nearly hree weeks and thus the brunt of attacks.
I’d call this good but not great news for Romney. It would be great news next Thursday but comes with a bit of risk today.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:44 am
My two cents. This survey does not match the Insider Advantage survey; they directly contradict each other.
However Insider Advantage was taken one day before the Rasmussen survey, on the 12th versus the 13th. It’s just barely possible both are right. Hopefully the first survey taken on or after the 13th will answer that question.
If the next survey taken on or after the 13th disagrees with Rasmussen, then we will be able to eliminate Rasmussen as an outlier; but not yet. On the other hand, if it agrees with Rasmussen, then Rasmussen is probably correct, which leaves the question of what to do with the Insider Advantage. Insider Advantage agrees with PPP, ARG and Hawkeye, but then so does Rasmussen. So, as long as we have no further surveys taken on the 12th, I think we have to assume Insider Advantage is also correct.
To summarize, for now, I think we have no choice but to assume both Insider Advantage and Rasmussen are correct, odd as that seems at first, and that Romney has really moved up a statistically significant amount (from Insider Advantage’s 7.7-16.3 to Rasmussen’s 19-27). If that is indeed so, I agree with most that we can probably thank the stress in the anti-Newt ads on his multiple marriages, which have ended up helping Romney, with his 42-year marriage.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:46 am
111:
Insider advantage is run by Matt Towery, who is former Gingrich employee, one of his closest friends, and who has made more biased statements about this primary and candidates than any other polling firm CEO.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:46 am
110 – Insider Advantage is also run by Gingrich’s former staffer and best friend.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:49 am
Thank goodness!
Added a few gray hairs over Gingrich being in the lead, thank you Iowa!!!!
December 15th, 2011 at 10:50 am
To sum that up, Iowa polls have been everywhere recently, and who really knows where they’re really at. I’m just excited for the vote to actually take place and find out the real results.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:53 am
I laughed when I saw “monotheistic”. It references one of those distorted urban legends about the LDS folk. There’s a few in every crowd. This is not the forum to discuss it. But if anyone is interested in the clarifications. Just click on my name.
Otherwise – on to the political discussion…. #105 Mono. You see “stuck”. I see solid base that never leaves and great strength comes from such a large solid base.
I will agree that Iowa is an unknown. Which is what makes it fun. A horse race to the last.
December 15th, 2011 at 10:59 am
Ron Paul is gonna win Iowa. One thing rasmussen does well is measure “likely” voters. Which consists of people who have voted before…and usually limits it MOSTLY to people who have voted republican before. Ron Paul’s support is far beyond the always republican voter. He has independants and dems that have registered republican just to vote for him.
December 15th, 2011 at 11:05 am
For those of you claiming that Romney won’t or hasn’t hit Obama, you can’t have it both ways. First you say he’s acting like he’s already be nominated because he’s hitting Obama in attack ads during the primary, but now you say he’s afraid to hit Obama.
December 15th, 2011 at 11:13 am
#117 Rob: E-X-A-C-T-L-Y! On one hand Romney is a big whimp (according to Rush) who will not attack Obama. On the other hand Romney is a ruthless competitor who attacked Rudy and Huck to the degree they are still stinging four years later.
Anyone who believes Mitt is going to pat little Barry on the head, kiss and be bff is crazy.
And no, you can’t have it both ways. Mitt is no pushover.
December 15th, 2011 at 11:24 am
In addition, Newt wants to pick up Teddy Kennedy’s attack on Bain and lost jobs. Well, maybe, just maybe Mitt might do the same to…….uh………Washington?
December 15th, 2011 at 11:29 am
In 114 Jeff Y wrote: “Iowa polls have been everywhere recently”
Well, not really. Between November 30th and December 12th, Hawkeye, ARG and PPP were in broad agreement that Gingrich is between 24-26, Paul is around 17 and Romney is 14-20. Similarly, between November 27th and December 6th, NBC/Marist, the Des Moines Register, ABC/Washington Post, PPP, We Ask America and CNN were in broad agreement that Gingrich was between 28-30, Paul was between 14-17 and Romney was 15-19.
In other words, the preponderance of the evidence appears to confirm that Gingrich is bleeding slightly but still in first, while Paul is stable in second and and Romney is stable in third.
The fudge factor, or uncertainty, is introduced by lone surveys that are conducted after all other extant surveys, like Insider Advantage and Rasmussen. That picture, of necessity, is blurred at first until more surveys can come on board to sharpen the picture. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re wrong, or that they will not eventually help to sharpen the focus when other data is added to them.
December 15th, 2011 at 11:31 am
I just had a real pleasant phone call from Ann Romney.
She sounds very nice.
we are spoiled here in Iowa, in some respects.
December 15th, 2011 at 11:35 am
#121…teledude, you just made the lady Rombots envious beyond your wildest imagination.
How can such a die-hard RomNot be so lucky???
December 15th, 2011 at 11:41 am
121
Wow! She called you personally? Guess that’s why you’re called, “teledude”.
December 15th, 2011 at 11:45 am
#122-123: Finally, a hint of Romney scandal.
December 15th, 2011 at 11:48 am
#124….K.G.
Romney is sending the “Big Gun” after teledude
LOL….
December 15th, 2011 at 11:58 am
OK Tele –
You have us all curious – what did the conversation consist of? Did she help soothe any of your issues w/ Mitt? Did she know you were a Newt guy when she called?
December 15th, 2011 at 12:06 pm
whats up with the conservatives and the evangelicalist really your to be so family and religon but youd rather look at newt when hes blundered his family skills his own friends arent even backing him they threw him out for ethics violations hes know reagen get over it, hes very brilliant but so darn boring do we really even know if what he saids is true cause you get lost because he likes to sound like an old historian interesting maybe for short time but not for 4 years. we have a good family man looks presidential and has saved many businesses please wake up romney is the man for president.
December 15th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
One of my favorite movies is “The Bishop’s Wife.” Catch it on TCM.
December 15th, 2011 at 12:11 pm
Mono –
We understand….we get it…..you hate mormons…..you love to mock them and tear them down……move along.
December 15th, 2011 at 12:16 pm
6. I agree. The old, ugly weirdo wins Iowa. Then Romney wins NH and on to the nomination for him.
December 15th, 2011 at 12:16 pm
Gallup daily tracking… Newt 29, Mitt 24. Newt down, Mitt up…. GO MITT
December 15th, 2011 at 12:17 pm
39- I thought this would make the burning of Atlanta seem like a campfire. It is even worse than I thought.
December 15th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
121- Without her, Romney would be nothing. I’m serious.
December 15th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
so can anyone clear this up for me? newt went down 25 percentage points in intrade in one day. what happened, besides this poll that can justify that?
December 15th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
135.
question –
generally it is accepted that unfavorable numbers tend to follow trends in polls and are released earlier than polls. Newt’s unfavorable numbers have been climbing quickly and the intrade people know this. Thus their movement.
December 15th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
#6. Bingo. If I were a betting man, my money is on Ron Paul. BTW his ads nailing gingrich were creative and extremely well done.
December 15th, 2011 at 1:06 pm
[...] Today’s Rasmussen poll should act as a wake-up call if nothing else. Let’s see if Newt wakes up. Share Tweet by Mark B. Lowe @ 1:06 pm. Filed under Herman Cain, Iowa Caucuses, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul [Comments (0)] [Trackback URL] [link] [Print This Post ] Trackback URL for this post: http://race42012.com/2011/12/15/an-interesting-question-2/trackback/ [...]
December 15th, 2011 at 1:10 pm
135. It’s the nature of this kind of money gamble. This is the cusp of a trend that likely isn’t going to be reversed. Newt has no money to counter the punches he’s taking. He’s looking like the other bubbles before him. His organization is weaker than it ought to be to sustain support. He doesn’t have a schedule in the near future that inspires any confidence that he’s able to pivot. He won’t take advise from others, but makes a big deal out of doing the campaign his own way. His support is only three weeks old.
Today all of this is becoming screamingly obvious and undeniable.
December 15th, 2011 at 1:37 pm
I think Ron Paul would make a GREAT Treasury Secretary
December 15th, 2011 at 1:40 pm
[...] has released a poll today that shows that Newt Gingrich’s lead in Iowa has collapsed. Assuming for the time being that [...]
December 15th, 2011 at 2:07 pm
# 45, MonotheisticPresidentsOnly, is clearly anti-Romney, and the name under which he is posting shows why he is against Romney. He is actually anti-Mormon, but he apparently does not realize that the doctrine of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is that there is only one God.
From the Book of Mormon –
“There is one God and one Shepherd over all the earth.”
“And now, behold, my beloved brethren, this is the way; and there is none other way nor name given under heaven whereby man can be saved in the kingdom of God. And now, behold, this is the doctrine of Christ, and the only and true doctrine of the Father, and of the Son, and of the Holy Ghost, which is one God, without end.”
“And they are one God, yea, the very Eternal Father of heaven and of earth.”
“And he hath brought to pass the redemption of the world, whereby he that is found guiltless before him at the judgment day hath it given unto him to dwell in the presence of God in his kingdom, to sing ceaseless praises with the choirs above, unto the Father, and unto the Son, and unto the Holy Ghost, which are one God, in a state of happiness which hath no end.”
From the Doctrine and Covenants -
“Which Father, Son, and Holy Ghost are one God, infinite and eternal, without end.”
And in the Prophet Joseph Smith’s translation of the Bible, 1 Timothy 2:4 states, “Who is willing to have all men to be saved, and to come unto the knowledge of the truth which is in Christ Jesus, who is the Only Begotten Son of God, and ordained to be a Mediator between God and man; who is one God, and hath power over all men.”
But the King James Version is missing the part about Jesus Christ and God being one God. Thankfully, the Prophet Joseph Smith has restored the original words of the Apostle Paul.
Mitt Romney is “Monotheistic,” and when he takes the oath of office in January 2013, he will be a “Monotheistic President.”
So there you have it, MonotheisticPresidentsOnly. If you want Monotheistic Presidents Only, then Mitt Romney is your man. Like all latter-day Saints, he is a sojourner for the truth.
December 15th, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Please do not turn this thread or this site into a discussion of religion.