The turmoil of the Republican nomination process, and the unhappiness of a large part of the party with all the choices, has led to recent speculation that we might have a brokered convention and/or the nominee might be someone not in the current field.
In the interests of full disclosure, I must note that I am not an unbiased observer on this point, since I count myself among those who look at the current field with disappointment (well, okay, ‘disappointment’ is a weak word – ‘revulsion’ is more like it).
Sean Trende assessed the possibility of a brokered convention, and rated the chances as low, which I think is fair. But that there is any realistic chance is remarkable – it has been sixty years since either party’s convention has gone past the first ballot.
So what are the factors that could cause a brokered convention this time?
The factor that, added to the above, may mean a late entrant has a chance to emerge as the nominee from a brokered convention is that the nominating process is back-loaded.
Let’s examine that last point first, because it brings into question the idea that it is now impossible to enter the race. Let’s say that someone decided to enter after Iowa and New Hampshire (it would, of course, have to be someone who has the name and the establishment support to credibly do so). The following fifteen states have filing deadlines three weeks or more after New Hampshire votes, giving time (maybe) to get on the ballot:
These states have a total of 742 delegates and most vote in April-June, giving a new candidate time to campaign. The strategy would probably be to concentrate on New York and Pennsylvania, which vote in April. Victories there would lead to May-June wins in other states (see the chart on Sean’s article for voting dates). A candidate who captured a big piece of the 742 delegates could prevent anyone else from getting the nomination and would go to the convention with a strong argument as to why he (to randomly select a pronoun) should be the compromise choice.
Let’s say that when the dust settles in June, the scoreboard looks something like this:
In this scenario, Romney and Gingrich have so soiled each other that they are unacceptable to too much of the party and are too wounded to battle Obama. After a nasty campaign, it’s unlikely that 350 Romney delegates could be persuaded to switch to Gingrich, or vice versa. That leaves Late Entrant and Paul. We know it won’t be Paul, so …
As the headline should make clear, this is not a prediction. I’m not even saying it is at all likely. But I do think it is just barely possible, and its slim chances seem to be growing.
This has been the strangest campaign I’ve seen in my five decades of following politics. There’s no reason to think it can’t get weirder still.
One final point: Can we put a name to the Late Entrant? The obvious choices are Daniels, Christie, Ryan, and Jindal. My pick, of course, would be Daniels, but unless the Women’s Caucus of the Daniels household has had an epiphany, that isn’t happening. Christie has endorsed Romney and this scenario involves Romney staying in all the way (I don’t see a brokered convention if he’s knocked out early), so eliminate Christie.
Jindal would be possible if Perry is eliminated after Iowa or New Hampshire. Ryan has not endorsed, so he could still get in. John Thune? Suggestions are welcomed.
Here are a few other assessments of the chances for a brokered convention or a Late Entrant: Brian Bolduc in National Review, Rhodes Cook at the Crystal Ball, Nate Silver at NYT.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
Thune endorsed Romney. Secondly I wish people would stop trying to make our nomination process such a freak show. The people who are going to run are currently running. Find someone to support or shut it.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:55 pm
i keep hearing some political annalists say we could be headed for a broken convention. do we really want that down in tampa?
December 14th, 2011 at 1:01 pm
Ron Paul’s not a perfect package so I can understand a bit of distaste for him but he’s been right for a long time and had anyone listened to him seriously, we wouldn’t be where we are today. I was waiting for a Daniels, Jindal, Ryan, or especially Christie type of guy to get in. But seeing as how they didn’t, Paul’s the only one taking the future of the country seriously and giving folks something to get excited about. So I think he deserves us giving him a chance. No one else really seems like they’d move the goalposts much.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Greg,
Is it an ideal situation? No.
Andrew,
The problem is nobody has stepped up, and no one seems to be able to take hold of the lead. When they do, they are either unacceptable to a portion of the base or not able to solidify anymore than their base support. We personally aren’t going to force a brokered convention by discussing it. The candidates who can’t garner enough support within the GOP are whose at fault.
We’re stuck with a bunch of mediocre, and/or middling candidates who are not acceptable to much of the voting base. It might not be the perceived outcome of your choice, but if a candidate can’t close the deal, then what are the options? Force voters to support someone they don’t like or are not comfortable with?
December 14th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
Then we go with Huck. Everyone parties!
December 14th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
Huckabee!!!
I can sense the anger already and I haven’t even clicked ‘Submit Comment’…
December 14th, 2011 at 1:10 pm
Huck/Rubio ..that is
December 14th, 2011 at 1:10 pm
As much as I dislike the field in general, it leaves a little bad tast in my mouth for someone who didn’t put all of the effort others had win the nomination.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:11 pm
Civil Commentator,
You are wise.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
Craig you aren’t bailing on Newt, are you?
December 14th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
Craig,
As are you…and apparently just a bit faster than me.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:13 pm
A late entry would need to be a big name. A big name might think the field is weak but such a weak field should result in obama winning term 2, in which case, mr big name would have an excellent shot winning in 2016. Now maybe somebody who isn’t a big name with a future past 2012 could run this late, ie RUDY but he didn’t do to well last time.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:13 pm
Speaking of Huck, he’s holding a “birthday” party today for all the candidates (except Paul and Romney) in Iowa. Google it!
Movie and popcorn included!
December 14th, 2011 at 1:17 pm
Sarah
talk amongst yourselves
December 14th, 2011 at 1:17 pm
On second thought the perfect person to run late would be John Boehner…just bring the tissue for his crying if he ever announced a run for President.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
Craig will bail on anyone.
if it went to the convention, the Republicans would be so wounded Obama would walk into a second term.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:20 pm
And the Republican party as Reagan tried to form is dead. The Progressive (as we know define the word, not as the word was defined, say, back in 2002) Socialists keep prodding this nation into a European financial disaster.
Yet, what the nation needed 4 years ago, nay 8 years ago, is standing right there before us. The turnaround specialist. The guy who has actually created and saved multi-million dollar and billion dollar organizations. And, because he’s a Mormon, or because he just happened to think that government involvement in the abortion question was wrong at one point, but then actually moved Right on the issue, or because the media falsely accuse him of positions that he has never taken, we may lose not only the race 4 2012, but the Republican party and, potentially, the nation.
It was for these same reasons McCain was nominated and had a pitiful showing in 2008. Sure, we can wave our flags and stomp our feet and protest till our faces are blue at town hall meetings and get the remnants of Conservatism half-way elected in the off-cycle terms. But the conservative movement may lose the Presidency for the next 8-16 years. And we’ll have deserved it.
I realize that for about 80% of you, I am preaching to the choir. However, it is the others that need to understand this.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:22 pm
“Force voters to support someone they don’t like or are not comfortable with?”
Welcome to politics. I’ve haven’t liked everyone I’ve voted for and was not 100% comfortable with any of them. Nobody is being forced to vote at all.
Study the candidates and vote for the person that you think will best represent your views. I will never vote for some late entrant that didn’t have the courage to fight for the nomination from the beginning.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
I think Jindal could easily recant his Perry endorsement and jump in in January. And if he did, he’d have my support fully and immediately. Same goes for Christie.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:35 pm
Machtyn,
But how have the “progressive socialists” prodded us into a European financial disaster when Republicans were generally just as eager to use financial profligacy to fund their own goodies and pet projects at the expense of our children? Even Reagan himself expanded debt hugely.
What the party needs to do is close the book on this era as quick as it can and move forward, investing for the future and sacrificing in the present. And it needs to drop the notion that we can afford to make war as we please anywhere we want, because we can’t. I think we’ll soon have to accept some tax increases to avoid falling into the abyss as well.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:36 pm
I’m still backing Paul, but if this happens, allow me to suggest the possibility of Sen. Pat Toomey. He’s only a freshman, but he served three terms in the House before, and headed up the Club for Growth, so he’d certainly satisfy the base. He’s an entrepreneur who also has a solid financial background. Along with this, he’d put Pennsylvania squarely in the toss-up column.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Don’t rule out SC Senator Jim Demint. He could declare and be the tea party savior.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:47 pm
1
I will not shut up. There is no right by the “Field” that it stay static. This field has individually proven itself unworthy of ejecting the incumbent from office. *Of course I will cast a vote when my time comes. But this field is W E A K and flawed to the core.
Ryan, Jindal and Daniels should reconsider. Then can lead the party AND govern in today’s circumstances. Romney/Gingrich can do NEITHER. I will not shut up
December 14th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Bob,
Good homework, and reason to hope, I suppose.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
loren,
I’ve been in politics for a while now, but you know what? If one candidate could solidify support, then this point would be mute. That’s the problem.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
If Paul Ryan enters it will set off an earthquake. He will have a mega phone to run as a write in candidate until his early states come around. He will succeed
December 14th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
Bobby Jindal is probably the only late entrant I’d support at this point. And I don’t think he’ll do it. Christie won’t abandon Romney, and Ryan doesn’t have a high enough profile or the governing experience. Jindal has totally turned around Louisiana and would have my vote.
Bob McDonnell could possibly also do it, but I don’t know that he will.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
Stating it perfectly.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:53 pm
21: Toomey would be an interesting option, especially since Pennsylvania would be one of the key states in this scenario.
22: Although I expressed doubt in MEM’s thread about write-in campaigns, DeMint could really mess everything up by running write-in in South Carolina.
I should have mentioned Jeb Bush as a possibility as well.
December 14th, 2011 at 2:00 pm
29
DeMint could help things by publicly stating his concerns about either of the two front runners. That would help the landscape for the late entrant
December 14th, 2011 at 2:01 pm
The fact that you don’t think Paul has a shot at all….destroys your credibility. His message is FINALLY resonating. He is making solid gains in iowa and new Hampshire. If he should win those 2 states…people will remember that he is the most consistent person in the race. The only problem they ever mention actually having with him is his foreign policy. And yet, that same foreign policy helped bush win in 2000. I can already see the ad spots if this race goes deep. The 2000 debate clip of Bush saying “no nation building” and “humble foreign policy”. Then Ron Paul stating that that’s exactly what he wants. Hmmmm…..is this tough? Come on people. You should already be on the Paul bandwagon. You should already be for freedom, liberty, life, the constitution. Don’t be chicken. Don’t buy into the line that he can’t win. He can win…..and i believe he has a real shot at it. For the first time…i actually believe it now.
December 14th, 2011 at 2:33 pm
Yes, our dream candidates, Jindal, Ryan, Daniels, whomever. By the time the vetting process is over, by the time the media has had their way with them, you will be saying next.
December 14th, 2011 at 2:45 pm
Things could get crazy.
Imagine Iowa:
Paul – 23
Gingrich – 22
Romney – 19
Bachmann – 13
Perry – 13
Santorum – 8
Huntsman – 2
Paul gets the headlines and a shot of momentum — yes, Paul would get it too! — going into New Hampshire.
Then imagine New Hampshire:
Paul – 27
Romney – 26
Gingrich – 23
Huntsman – 13
Perry – 5
Bachmann – 4
Santorum – 2
It. Could. Happen.
December 14th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
Alex,
Paul’s ceiling in the primary of NH is much lower than in the caucus of Iowa. Plus, if Gingrich lost Iowa to Paul, the story would be about Gingrich’s fall, not Paul’s win. For good or ill, opinion-makers have tended to ignore Paul in writing narratives. If those were the Iowa results, the NH results would look more like this:
Romney 31
Paul 23
Gingrich 18
Huntsman 14
Perry 7
Bachmann 5
Santorum 2
December 14th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
The field is set. Good grief!!
December 14th, 2011 at 3:04 pm
That said, I’d be fairly indifferent to Paul wins in Iowa and NH. On the bright side, it would scare the ever-loving daylights out of the establishment and probably draw in at least one of the heavyweights currently twiddling his thumbs on the sidelines. But it would also expose the fairly deep divisions within the GOP on foreign, and even domestic, policy in a way that wouldn’t help our eventual nominee.
December 14th, 2011 at 3:13 pm
34 – Good points. Although I find it hard to believe that everyone wouldn’t take a second look at Paul after he won — and you know how political passions can be: people become irrationally enthused for a short period of time before cooling off, but there’s little cool-off time in between Iowa and New Hampshire. You don’t think that another 10% in New Hampshire could flock to Paul after a Gingrich loss and a bunch of positive headlines for the man himself — showing him to be ‘viable,’ at any rate? I can imagine 10% more saying “Let’s just roll the dice with Paul, let’s do it!” — before they have the chance to come to their senses.
And I’m not sure that Paul’s absolute ceiling isn’t 30% in New Hampshire.
Paul needs a perfect storm to make it happen — imagine more Romney voters getting sucked away by Huntsman, maybe even Romney coming in fourth or fifth in Iowa — but it’s not outside the realm of possibility.
December 14th, 2011 at 3:35 pm
The RCP average for McCain who had run 10 years (by the same logic that some people claim Romney has ran X years) was 12.5% for 12/14/2008. So compared to that Romney is doing just fine. I think Gingrich will eventually be 3rd or 4th in the Iowa caucuses and his campaign will implode, so this scenario of broken convention pretty unlikely.
December 14th, 2011 at 3:38 pm
Machtyn…#17
Very well said… How much longer can the Republican party keep up this division and self destruction when the Democrats are completely united.
December 14th, 2011 at 3:58 pm
SC and FL represent a firewall which would prevent Paul from getting the nomination in any event.
December 14th, 2011 at 4:15 pm
Kavon,
I respectfully disagree. The polls don’t tell the whole story. While i think Florida is a tough get for Paul….south carolina isn’t as hard as you think. What state has more active duty military personnel than sc? And who has received more donations from active duty military personnel than all the other candidates combined? Ron Paul. Ron Paul can win. I believe it…and it’s still a long shot, but it very well could happen.
December 14th, 2011 at 4:54 pm
I predict we will never see another brokered Republican convention. No additional major candidates are going to join the 2012 race, either.
December 14th, 2011 at 5:23 pm
Bob, have you discussed your wish with Santa?
December 15th, 2011 at 1:18 am
HUCKABEE / RYAN!
February 21st, 2012 at 11:00 am
[...] that a contested convention (to use the currently popular term), once considered a long-shot (I posted about the idea a couple months ago, using the header ‘Weird Scenario’), is now a very real possibility. The [...]