Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey
Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?
- Newt Gingrich 30%
- Mitt Romney 29%
- Ron Paul 8%
- Jon Huntsman 7%
- Michele Bachmann 5%
- Rick Perry 3%
- Rick Santorum 1%
- Not sure 16%
Among Republicans
- Newt Gingrich 49%
- Mitt Romney 24%
Among Independents
- Mitt Romney 32%
- Newt Gingrich 24%
Which Republican presidential candidate would be the weakest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?
Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted December 10-11, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Inside the numbers:
GOP voters tend to see Bachmann and Paul as the weakest opponents for Obama, with only Gingrich, Romney and, perhaps surprisingly, Santorum in single digits on this question.
Unaffiliated voters agree that Bachmann is the weakest challenger, but just five percent (5%) of these voters think that of Romney compared to 10% who feel that way about Gingrich.
Military veterans see Gingrich as a stronger opponent for Obama than Romney. Those who have not served give the edge to Romney. Among those with an immediate family member now in the military, Gingrich is seen as the strongest candidate. Those without a service member in the family agree that these are the two strongest GOP candidates but are evenly divided over which would make a stronger rival for the president next fall.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
December 12th, 2011 at 5:20 pm
Weakest:
Rick Santorum 7%
I have to wonder if people really don’t think Santorum is weak, or if they just forget about him.
December 12th, 2011 at 5:21 pm
Holy… that was fast. Huge for Mitt if true, but I’ll have to wait for another poll to confirm in the case that this might be an outlier.
What a funny/unique way to ask that.
December 12th, 2011 at 5:21 pm
Only truly idiotic people look at polls in December and project to next November. Half the general election folks aren’t even paying attention right now.
Romney is not a normal human being, he’s a socially weird guy who is nervous in his own skin. Nobody would want to have a beer with Romney.
Look, Romney is not electable. He’s not. The list of awkward moments for this guy is enormous. Check out on youtube his “who let the dogs out!” moment when talking to some black folks. Awkward. Telling unemployed people that he’s also unemployed when he’s worth a quarter billion dollars. Awkward. Betting $10,000. Awkward. He’s not a normal person. And the more Willard tries to be “likeable” the more he fails miserably with his increasingly awkward and weird moments. His natural tendencies are all very awkward, that’s why he has to be handled so firmly by his consultants. He’s a bot. And he’s unelectable.
And I love reading the mind-numbing posts by guys like Matthew Kilburn that even though Romney sucks as a politician, he’s the most qualified person. What a stupid remark. There are a lot of weird people who are qualified. It’s a popularity contest people. This whole damn thing is a popularity contest. Politics is, by definition, a popularity contest. I don’t care if he graduated from Harvard. He’s not electable.
Screw January. Let’s see some new fresh entrants to the field compete for Super Tuesday in March.
And if there are no new entrants, I’m rooting for a new entrant selected at the convention.
NOT ROMNEY.
December 12th, 2011 at 5:22 pm
Among Republicans
•Newt Gingrich 49%
•Mitt Romney 24%
Next.
December 12th, 2011 at 5:23 pm
Oops… ignore the first part of #2. Misread it…
December 12th, 2011 at 5:23 pm
2.
Jeff, my naive Rombot friend..
Please learn to read.
December 12th, 2011 at 5:23 pm
16% of voters think Not Sure is our strongest candidate. Funny I haven’t even seen him at any of the debates.
http://movie-reviews.com.au/sites/default/files/images/lge_Idiocracy_080925114307344_wideweb__300x300.jpg
December 12th, 2011 at 5:25 pm
6, lol, not sure how I missed the first question… I saw the numbers and got a little excited.
3, didn’t we already discuss this in the other thread?
December 12th, 2011 at 5:27 pm
so much for the electability argument, Republicans clearly think Gingrich is more electable.
December 12th, 2011 at 5:29 pm
Probably in poor taste to quote myself, but that’s nothing new for me. In the last thread (the similar poll by The Hill), I wrote:
Looks like it isn’t just one poll. Yet more trouble for Romney.
December 12th, 2011 at 5:30 pm
9 Republicans can think the Taco bell dog is the most electable candidate, but if independents don’t agree, it’s 4 more years of Obama.
December 12th, 2011 at 5:30 pm
Why don’t they ask the Q in the correct way….
December 12th, 2011 at 5:32 pm
11, exactly.
December 12th, 2011 at 5:35 pm
Military veterans see Gingrich as a stronger opponent for Obama than Romney.
Those who have not served give the edge to Romney.
Among those with an immediate family member now in the military, Gingrich is seen as the strongest candidate.
Newt/Rubio ’12 & ’16 for America’s freedom!
December 12th, 2011 at 5:38 pm
14 Romney needs to hit Gingrich for supporting a Palestinian state, that will turn some of the military support around.
December 12th, 2011 at 5:41 pm
15, when did he ever support a Palestinian state? Link?
(Sorry, this is post 5, but I had to ask)
December 12th, 2011 at 5:50 pm
Here’s one.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/9989544
That’s why I said his “invented people” statement was pandering. He actually supports a Palestinian state and reaffirmed that after his gaffe.
December 12th, 2011 at 5:54 pm
This poll clearly shows:
People with a brain favor Romney over Newt by 10,000 times
Also, people who have had affairs favor Newt 20 to 1 over that boring Romney.
And lastly, late night talk shows think the general election will be much more entertaining with a Newt in the contest.
December 12th, 2011 at 5:56 pm
11 – Exactly!! This race will be decided by Independents. Let’s scroll back up and see how the Independents view the electability question . . . . wait a second . . .
Mitt Romney – 32%
Newt Gingrich – 24%
Hmmmm I wonder what will happen if Newt is the nominee. According to Independents, it will be 4 more years of Obama.
December 12th, 2011 at 5:59 pm
17
Wow! What a complete windbag, Gingrich. He goes out of his way to call Palestinian “people” (not the state, the PEOPLE) “made up”. The NEXT FRIGGIN DAY, he calls for creating a Palestinian state. This guy is a liberal hack.
Anybody find this confusing?
Gingrich was at 10%. Last I checked 10 is not a single digit.
December 12th, 2011 at 6:06 pm
Rounding off to 10 can mean a 9.6 – 9.9
December 12th, 2011 at 6:10 pm
Only 4% consider Romney our weakest candidate. Meanwhile, 10% consider our weakest candidate to be Gingrich.
While I don’t concur with either of these views, the latter is by far and away the more rational of the 2.
December 12th, 2011 at 6:28 pm
21
It’s OK, you can round up your IQ to 10.
December 12th, 2011 at 7:04 pm
Holy cow.
If Mitt has lost the electability argument among Republicans (losing to Newt on that issue 2-1), he is in really, really bad shape. Because there simply aren’t a lot of non-Mormons who are going to vote for him no matter what, for the sake of some cause (because he really has no cause). Most non-Mormon Romney supporters are incredibly pragmatic, and are voting for him because they think he can win. But it would appear that the share of Republican voters who see Mitt as the most electable miraculously, is almost identical to Mitt’s persistent and unyielding ceiling.
Funny how that works.
December 12th, 2011 at 7:06 pm
Jared,
I agree with Indies, that Mitt is in fact the more electable of the two. Indies would also make that so, in the General Election. But alas, it’s Republicans who will choose our nominee, and they seem to think that Newt is more electable. By a 2-1 margin.
That, more than any figure I have seen recently, shows me how dire the situation is for Team Romney.
December 12th, 2011 at 7:12 pm
When talking about the debate:
O’Reilly on Fox, just said that “people (Republicans) won’t buy what Mitt is saying, because he’s really NOT a true conservative.”
The polls also reflect this.
December 12th, 2011 at 7:33 pm
The Angle/O’Donnell mentality of todays GOP fleshed out.
December 12th, 2011 at 7:35 pm
#26 Yep, Mitt is moderate. Which is why he can win the large, swing-vote center.
December 12th, 2011 at 7:40 pm
The fool O’Reilly is a little late. that line is already passe. what’s happening now is that the Mark Levin’s etc (that dopey O’Reilly is now trying to copy) have realized Newt’s done and they are starting to reconcile to Romney – as well as to the realization that Romney Is a conservative after all. The tea party endorsement of Mitt up in New Hampshire today is just the beginning folks. Remember the Tea Party originally was a very reasonable effort – and they did poll originally favoring the reasonable budget cutter Romney. then they got kind of crazy seemingly. But now you are seeing the original more level-headed Tea partiers take to the stage again. Like this Tom Thomson in N.H. There will be more to come. again, you guys need to look a bit more closely at this game. Stop with the fantasies. Cain, Newt etc and realize there are real serious political actors doing their things here, not just a bunch of t.v. watchers being called up by Rassmussen every night.
December 12th, 2011 at 8:53 pm
29.
The polls don’t reflect this.
Rarely do endorsements impact how a person votes.